and 60% did!
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xyzzy
Still seems kinda low!

I'd have to check past prediction percentages, but still, there weren't that many brackets submitted. I would've thought people entering would be more familiar with the contest, but maybe not!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
(edited 11/6/2015 6:33:31 PM)report
Well I'm just saying FFX was pretty influential in its own right. Talking pure influence, not just popularity, knowing where you are, yeah. Half-Life's influence on console shooters was fairly low comparatively, all things considered.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
FFX had 56.78% of brackets take it to round 3 in GotD after 92.77%/76.32%, but it was a one seed then so

92.94%, 79.81% in BGE1 (3 seed)

78.56%, 48.51%, 27.08%, 11.07%, 5.15% in BGE2
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
(edited 11/6/2015 6:41:05 PM)report
I feel like Half-Life is the originator of the whole cinematic action game. The way its structured, right from the beginning with the tram ride and the opening credits, is like playing a movie, being inside a matinee blockbuster. I think it, along with MGS which also came out in '98, had a huge influence on things like Halo, Call of Duty 4, and Uncharted.
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Communists
_Dog posted...
ZeldaTPLink posted...
And then we have the next game, Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam, which seems to be getting some hype, but most of the people seem to be frustrated that the game isn't taking any elements from the Mario RPG series, only from NSMB/Sunshine/Galaxy. And also it looks similar to Sticker Star.


I should take a look at this new Mario game. Platformers are far more fun than RPG's.


By elements I mean, it's prioritizing characters like Petey Piranha over classic RPG characters.
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
I feel like Half-Life is the originator of the whole cinematic action game. The way its structured, right from the beginning with the tram ride and the opening credits, is like playing a movie, being inside a matinee blockbuster. I think it, along with MGS which also came out in '98, had a huge influence on things like Halo, Call of Duty 4, and Uncharted.


Really good point there.

That said, what made Half-Life so good was that the cinematic scenes were part of the gameplay itself, unlike MGS and those that followed, which you could only watch the cinematic scenes and wait until the next part of the gameplay began, which is something that RPG's had done.
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
LeonhartFour posted...
I would've thought people entering would be more familiar with the contest, but maybe not!


We did get a lot of people filling out brackets who visited GameFAQs for the first time, as a result of the yellow site alert. This is probably affecting some of our prediction percentages, since we had a lot of people filling out brackets who know nothing about the history of our contest or what games are even popular here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
(edited 11/6/2015 6:48:52 PM)report
FFVI/ACII: So new games have been sucking it up, and CT, probably the game most like FFVI in appeal, blew the doors off R&C3, so I'd expect FFVI to do well here. ACII couldn't break 40% on MGS4 in GOTD, and I'd have taken FFVI > MGS4 even back then, so, with ACII likely being worth less now, I'd expect mid-high 60s. Going to go a bit higher because I think there's more chance FFVI goes crazy than ACII unexpectedly holding up.

TTYD/Tales of Symphonia: I wavered on this one before the contest, but seeing that Tales struggled to see off RE5 and lost to God of War in the GOTD contest makes me think it's better suited to 4-ways. TTYD's got some real strength, able to hang well over 40% on MGS3, and if ToS has relied on Nintendo-exclusivity to pull its weight then going against a respected Nintendo Gamecube RPG is likely to be bad news. Let's say mid-50s for TTYD, but I'm still a little scared here.

Star Wars: KOTOR/Xenogears: This is one I was much more confident in a few days ago. Old games, and old RPGs specifically, have been doing very well. I assumed Xenogears had faded and lost relevance, but looking at how well it does whenever it's brought up in a "which game do you want to see re-released/remade", and seeing the likes of DQVIII do decently, makes me more scared that it's still got some strength and it's '09 disaster was down to FFVIII. Western games have by and large done poorly, but the exceptions have been Half-Life and The Last of Us, both of which carry a degree of respect I think KOTOR shares. It's also fairly old, from before the PS3/360 gen that most of the new releases hail, and 47% on FFIX in a night match is no joke. KOTOR should be fine, but Xenogears likely does better than many expect. Let's say mid-50s again.

Zelda: TWW/Pokemon X/Y: I'm looking at R/S/E and D/P/P's performances against Nintendo opposition in the last contest as my guide here, and going for something around 60/40. G/S/C doing so well today makes me want to up that a point or two though, especially since MM/GSC was probably the last time Pokemon genuinely disappointed in a contest.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
11/6/2015 7:41:40 PM#260
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 11 – (5) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs. (12) Xenogears

Moltar’s Analysis

Vote totals have gotten low enough and Xenogears fans are hardcore enough that it shouldn't get killed here. KOTOR is solid, but it also isn't some world-beater.

FE got 40% on it years ago, Xenogears can probably do around that.

Moltar’s Bracket: Star Wars

Moltar’s Prediction: Star Wars - 59%



Transience’s Analysis

Well, this is an easy one. KOTOR scored 47% on FF9 which should be stronger than Xenogears in every way. KOTOR has several other decent contest results while Xenogears has never really impressed outside of that one crazy-in-retrospect win vs. Pokemon GSC.
And so I'm picking Xenogears.

Why? Well, it's complicated. I should mention upfront that Xenogears is, if not my favourite game, at least in my top 5 or so. That's part of it.

But I also have a sweeping theory about this contest. My bracket's a little unconventional this year since I went with a general guiding principle instead of looking at contest history for every match and evaluating based on that. It's all about where we are as a site, our demographics and what we really care about. Let's call it, I don't know, transience's manifesto. That sounds important. If you're going to read one of my rambling analyses, read this one.

GameFAQs as a site has shifted. Our polls are now bringing in about 35-40k votes, about a third of what we used to do ten years ago. Our population is pretty stagnant, at least as far as poll voting goes. The average age of poll voters, according to recent polls, is 25-28. As per SBAllen, traffic is going up but it's going up by people going directly to the pages rather than hitting the main page and voting in the poll.
As a result, we have a population that's a little more set in its ways. They're less likely to play new games. They're even less likely to adore new games. People in general tend to like the things that left a lasting impression on them. It's difficult to have that kind of experience when you're 28 as opposed to when you're 14. GameFAQs has always trended towards the classics and that will be more pronounced now than it was years ago.

Video games today are ubiquitous. There are so many choices and very few of them really hit a broad audience as a result. You've got dozens of games coming out on Steam/PSN/XBL every month. You might get five tentpole releases a year and most of those games are genres that we don't really care about. Again, we play the games that were popular when we were kids.

All of this is to say that I think we're going to see a resurgence of classics in a way that won't line up with previous results. Let's say that the average GameFAQser is 27 years old. They started being conscious of games when they were about 10 years old, back in 1998. That era of games and slightly before it is going to hit super hard for people right now, not because those games are better, but because you can only experience something new and fresh once. I think the era of games from like 1995-2000 is going to be big this year, Really big.
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/6/2015 7:41:51 PM#261
So when I look at this contest, I see everything through that lens. Skyrim? If we had 100,000 votes per match then yeah, I might pick that to go far. But with 40,000 resistant voters, I wouldn't be surprised to see it lose to Metroid Prime. I'd much sooner pick a Super Mario RPG to make a deep contest run just because there's what hit our voters when they were growing up. I have Chrono Trigger making the finals in my bracket because we've mostly become an exclusive community that isn't really open to new members. GameFAQs has become like board 8, just magnified out to more voters. Every one of those voters knows Chrono Trigger intimately and there is no game on this website that's beloved quite like Chrono Trigger. The end result: 85% on Ratchet and Clank. 5-10 years ago, 85% of this website wouldn't even know what Chrono Trigger was.

So what about Xenogears? One thing that I think is consistently underestimated in this contest are PS1 games. It's because we don't have the results to prove it. The PS1 was undoubtedly the strongest RPG era on this website - Final Fantasy VII basically gave birth to GameFAQs and people played everything Square, or just RPGs in general on the PS1. We end up with games like Legend of Dragoon putting a scare into Uncharted 2 even though that game is objectively terrible. Like, I'm talking really, reeeeeaaalllly bad.
Xenogears's contest resume is this: it beat GSC 57/43 and then ran into the FF7 buzzsaw. You couldn't pick a worse game for it to face than FF7. The second worst game you could pick is FF8 which is what it ran into in 2009. Its closest contest relative, Chrono Cross, was in the same boat for years and years. Despite being literally the only other Chrono game in existence, its closest chance was when Serge got thrown into a fourway with Tidus. It finally got its chance to show that it wasn't garbage in GOTD and it beat Dragon Quest 8 easily before putting up a respectable number on the eventual champion. Most people saw that a surprising result. I think it's just old PS1 Square showing that it's legit. If I had spent two minutes thinking about that CC/DQ8 result, I would have stuck with DQ8 over Persona 3. Oh well. It's just one point. I'm really not stressing about 1 point matches in this monster bracket.

Let's look at that old GameFAQs top 10 list. Xenogears finished #32, four spots above KOTOR. Chrono Cross ended up at #43.. one spot above FF9. Those games are more beloved than we think and with the site shrinking, I think these games are going to impress. Plus, when I think of the average GameFAQs voter, I don't think PC/Xbox which is where KOTOR lives. I think of old Sony and Nintendo consoles. I wouldn't be surprised if Xenogears had a higher playrate/had more mindshare than any of the KOTOR games. Hell, there was a poll recently about which old PS1/N64 game you would want remade and Xenogears won the poll outright. It beat Metal Gear Solid, SOTN and Mario 64. There's certainly some fandom there.

Is it enough to beat KOTOR? Probably not. No matter how many words I drop, there's still the fact that it got 47% on FF9 and went toe to toe with Diablo 2 and Halo 1. It's a longshot. But I'm going to roll with it.

transience's prediction: Xenogears with 51%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/6/2015 7:42:41 PM#262
Leon’s Analysis

This match could appropriately be subtitled “The Jeff Zero Special,” although he won’t be around to see it! Xenogears has potentially increased in strength since we last saw it in 2009, if only because I’ve played it recently! It also did finally get a PSN release, making it much more accessible to the general public without having to overpay for it online. I don’t actually expect that to make enough of a difference to matter though. Knights of the Old Republic showed some solid power in GOTD with easy wins over DMC1 and FE and then putting up 47% on FFIX. It’s hard for me to imagine Xenogears being worth that much indirectly on FFIX (it wouldn’t get that much head-to-head, of course, because of SFF), but maybe I’m wrong! We didn’t get a good look at it in 2009 because it got stuck with FFVIII, and that victory over G/S/C in 2004 isn’t really worth anything now. Things have changed a lot since then. JRPGs that weren’t attached to a brand name series have taken a big hit since the site shift in 2005, for whatever the reason. I think Xenogears will look respectable in defeat, but I don’t give it much of a chance to actually win.

Leonhart’s Vote: Xenogears

Leonhart’s Prediction: Knights of the Old Republic with 58.50%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I want to take Xenogears so badly here. I really do. And the game is probably stronger than people give it credit form. But I don’t think it can get it done. Star Wars HYPE is at all all-time high right now. Battlefront comes out soon. The new movies comes out soon. KOTOR is remembered fondly by pretty much everyone who played it. Xenogears is a relic. An awesome relic, but one that probably does not have the name recognition to make this upset happen. I’ll be absolutely thrilled if it happens, but I’m certainly not holding my breath for it. Would you take Xenogears to break 47% indirectly on Final Fantasy IX? I wouldn’t.

Star Wars: KOTOR with 56%


Guest’s Analysis - SSBM_Guy

A lot of contest veterans are calling this a trap match, but I don't see it at all. The Xenogears > Pokemon match was 11 years ago during Square's best year and back when Pokemon was kind of a joke. If Pokemon RBY got in to the 2004 bracket, I'm sure it would have embarrassed itself. Xenogears/Pokemon GSC is a silly match for a lot of reasons, but it should really be a non-factor in this match.

KOTOR pulls up better performances in more recent and relevant contests. Admittedly, Xenogears got screwed over in the 2009 bracket, but I can't see it holding up. Getting lower than Soul Calibur, even with FFVIII there, is bad. Meanwhile, KOTOR put up 47% against Final Fantasy IX, a stronger Square game. The percentage should be simple. If KOTOR got 60% on a third-tier Nintendo game, then it should get 60% on a third-tier Square game.

Hey, maybe Episode VII hype can give KOTOR an overperformance...! No, that's just a little too absurd for me.

KOTOR: 60.60%
Xenogears: 39.40%


Crew Consensus: Star Wars is the favorite to force push its way to round 2
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Lopen's Unofficial Analysis:

Read transience's analysis. He's a very wise man. I agree with his theory completely and have it in my bracket as well.

I bet you feel pretty safe about that pick now, huh bud?

Now I'll just give it the percentage it got against GSC... and... done.

Lopen's prediction:
Xenogears with 57.95%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
(edited 11/6/2015 7:46:09 PM)report
transience and Lopen have ridiculous reasoning and way to many spins and twists to justify the result.

How about we bet on the matter? Sig bet maybe?
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
Man...that tranny writeup.

I thought Jeff made a sudden appearance to justify picking Xenogears!
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"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
Good wall of text. After with it even if you're wrong about this match.

After all, Chrono Cross to R3 baby!
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
Wow, nice wall of text. Let's go xenogears!
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
NEVER FORGET.
bring it, KOTOR
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Master Moltar posted...
Transience’s Analysis

Well, this is an easy one. KOTOR scored 47% on FF9 which should be stronger than Xenogears in every way. KOTOR has several other decent contest results while Xenogears has never really impressed outside of that one crazy-in-retrospect win vs. Pokemon GSC.
And so I'm picking Xenogears.

Why? Well, it's complicated. I should mention upfront that Xenogears is, if not my favourite game, at least in my top 5 or so. That's part of it.

But I also have a sweeping theory about this contest. My bracket's a little unconventional this year since I went with a general guiding principle instead of looking at contest history for every match and evaluating based on that. It's all about where we are as a site, our demographics and what we really care about. Let's call it, I don't know, transience's manifesto. That sounds important. If you're going to read one of my rambling analyses, read this one.

GameFAQs as a site has shifted. Our polls are now bringing in about 35-40k votes, about a third of what we used to do ten years ago. Our population is pretty stagnant, at least as far as poll voting goes. The average age of poll voters, according to recent polls, is 25-28. As per SBAllen, traffic is going up but it's going up by people going directly to the pages rather than hitting the main page and voting in the poll.
As a result, we have a population that's a little more set in its ways. They're less likely to play new games. They're even less likely to adore new games. People in general tend to like the things that left a lasting impression on them. It's difficult to have that kind of experience when you're 28 as opposed to when you're 14. GameFAQs has always trended towards the classics and that will be more pronounced now than it was years ago.

Video games today are ubiquitous. There are so many choices and very few of them really hit a broad audience as a result. You've got dozens of games coming out on Steam/PSN/XBL every month. You might get five tentpole releases a year and most of those games are genres that we don't really care about. Again, we play the games that were popular when we were kids.

All of this is to say that I think we're going to see a resurgence of classics in a way that won't line up with previous results. Let's say that the average GameFAQser is 27 years old. They started being conscious of games when they were about 10 years old, back in 1998. That era of games and slightly before it is going to hit super hard for people right now, not because those games are better, but because you can only experience something new and fresh once. I think the era of games from like 1995-2000 is going to be big this year, Really big.


Transcience that was a beautiful analysis. I had Xenogears for the longest time, and then swapped to KOTOR because of Star Wars hype...

Xenogears was awesome, "Small of Two Pieces" omg...
Nice write-up tranny.
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http://img.imgcake.com/whatisurnameplz/kermitgifre.gif
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
Like I said in another thread, I would be very happy to be wrong about KOTOR over Xenogears. Xenogears is my #1 game ever, and KOTOR is something I consider good, probably top 15 even, but still overrated. Sort of unfortunate since I'm and RPG and Star Wars fan so you'd think it would be absolutely top tier for me.
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In my opinion of course,
-KRELIAN
transcience posted...
bring it, KOTOR


So... yes then?
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
Master Moltar posted...
GameFAQs as a site has shifted. Our polls are now bringing in about 35-40k votes, about a third of what we used to do ten years ago. Our population is pretty stagnant, at least as far as poll voting goes. The average age of poll voters, according to recent polls, is 25-28. As per SBAllen, traffic is going up but it's going up by people going directly to the pages rather than hitting the main page and voting in the poll.
As a result, we have a population that's a little more set in its ways. They're less likely to play new games. They're even less likely to adore new games. People in general tend to like the things that left a lasting impression on them. It's difficult to have that kind of experience when you're 28 as opposed to when you're 14. GameFAQs has always trended towards the classics and that will be more pronounced now than it was years ago.


The most recent age poll had an average age of 27.31. The more recent age polls are also very unreliable if you wanted to know the age demographics of the average visitor hitting GameFAQs from Google and bypassing the homepage. I am willing to bet there are a lot of younger people visiting GameFAQs than the age polls actually suggest, but most of them are coming from Google and bypassing the homepage. So the younger people aren't seeing the polls and as a result, the younger age demographics are under-represented in the polls. This also means our ASV is pretty much non-existent.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
nah, sig bets are so 10 years ago
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xyzzy
transience posted...
nah, sig bets are so 10 years ago


Oh come on, isn't that Guru contest still around or something?

Whatever then.
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
most_games_r_ok posted...
Man...that tranny writeup.

I thought Jeff made a sudden appearance to justify picking Xenogears!


Nah, Jeff doesn't care enough about contests to talk at length about them, even when they involve Xenogears and Star Wars!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Jeff's small time compared to this guy anyway
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xyzzy
I don't make sig bets with dogs.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
I'm far down the Lopen train here oh god help
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xyzzy
there ain't no gettin' offa this chair you on
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Lopen posted...
I don't make sig bets with dogs.


Just lemme know if you change your mind.
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
Well I'm rooting for you but watching your descent into madness only I've seen would have a certain charm to it.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
http://lparchive.org/Xenogears-%28by-The-Dark-Id%29/Fan%20Art/56-pa9Lb.jpg

I just came across this and now I'm even more convinced in Xenogears's win
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xyzzy
The Mana Sword posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
TTYD is a Gamecube game, man!

This is a battle of the only two Gamecube RPGs that mattered.


how dare you badmouth baten kaitos eternal wings and the lost ocean


Amen to that. Assuming we're only talking about "traditional" RPGs.

Obviously the real best RPG on the GameCube was Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance, but SRPGs often don't count for some reason.

Nah I'm just kidding it's totally Tales of Symphonia. Possibly the most hyped I've ever been for a game, and I published a Golden Sun: Dark Dawn fanfic on ff.net a month before the game came out in the US. (The guy who first introduced me to fanfiction.net was also a Golden Sun fan, and his review was basically telling me to wait until the game came out--and he was right; once I played the game I no longer shipped that couple.)
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, Jungle, and Ocean
-LusterSoldier- posted...
MasterMoltar posted...
Leon’s Analysis

Assassin’s Creed II got a rough draw here. It got 39% on Wind Waker in 2010. That’s pretty good (also worth taking note of since Wind Waker likely awaits FFVI later on in the division). The series has probably declined in popularity overall in the last five years for a multitude of reasons, but that can actually be beneficial to AC2. The Ezio games could be thought of as “The good old days when the series was great” or something like that. Hard to imagine a game that’s only like 6 years old could benefit from nostalgia, but when Ubisoft pops out games annually, I suppose it’s possible!

Of course, AC2 has no chance of beating Final Fantasy VI here, but I think it’ll do well enough to make those people who’ve taken it to win the division start second guessing that choice a little bit. I doubt FFVI has gotten this magical resurgence in strength that those FF polls we had seem to indicate. We’ve seen multiple times in the past that it’s a mistake to try to correlate Favorite Character/Favorite Game polls to actual contest strength (Yoshi winning those Favorite Mario Character polls, for instance). I’d say FFVI doing better in those polls is more of an indictment of FFVII’s continued decline than anything else, but I suppose we’ll see since Allen has set them up to potentially face off in the division finals.


I suspect AC2 is probably weaker than it was in 2010, because the series has been run into the ground by receiving major games on a yearly basis now. That can't be good for the long-term health of the series and is my basis for predicting AC2 to be weaker in 2015. I also think FFVI could be at least a little bit stronger than we saw in the previous contest it was eligible for. My initial prediction for FFVI was a little bit on the low side in the Oracle, so I'm going high tonight with a prediction above 70%.


That is certainly possible, but most of those yearly sequels being only so-so could actually help it. Normally it takes awhile for nostalgia to set in, but if AC2 stands out as the high point of the series (which I thought it did, though it could be the original--iirc Altair is stronger than Ezio, not that characters = games), fans of the series should favor it.

I kind of saw it this way: a lot of people were saying that Oblivion should be weaker because Skyrim obsoleted it. It's fairly safe to say that that won't happen to ACII.

Although I went and said that people would be unjustly worried about FFVI after its performance and then gave a higher number than anyone except unofficial guest Lopen. Kind of funny, except not really because the Crew are all professionals who know better and I specifically said that FFVI's performance would worry those who don't know any better and assumed based on seeding that it should be a blowout.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, Jungle, and Ocean
Damn, tran. Nice.
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
I have nostalgia of playing KOTOR >_>
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Communists
Symphonia isn't even a top 20 gamecube game
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dyk5CulZk5U
(warning language)
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In my opinion of course,
-KRELIAN
pjbasis posted...
Good wall of text. After with it even if you're wrong about this match.

After all, Chrono Cross to R3 baby!


It's certainly possible. That's one of the most unpredictable fourpacks in the contest. I decided it was a good place to roll the dice with a crazy upset and went with Shovel Knight, because why not? GTA and WoW are known chokers and CC isn't terribly strong, and either way the real key to that half-division is correctly picking Oblivion-SMRPG. (Which, unfortunately, I don't feel like I did, but I don't think many other gurus did either. I probably should've changed my pick once I was reminded that Oblivion beat TTYD, but I guess I didn't want to doubt SMRPG even though I don't feel as strongly for it as I do about the Paper Mario games. It's the same reason why I couldn't pull the trigger on RBY > SMB3--if I couldn't justify it losing to 3, then I couldn't justify it losing to World, 64, or whatever comes out of Divisions I/II--and Pokéfan though I may be, the idea of a game that was essentially released half-finished taking out all of those classics repulsed me. ...Although SM64 was pretty damn buggy in its own right. I've heard that that was a result of workarounds they implemented to fit such a sprawling game in such a small package, though. And I've seen the videos of the speedrunners' exploits; they're not exactly intuitive enough that gamers would activate them accidentally. ...well, okay, neither were most of RBY's; it's just that some of them were so famous that everyone knew them. ...I actually have accidentally activated bugs in a game. FE7. I forget exactly how it happened but somehow on the first level where Kishuna appears I ended up glitching him so that he took on Eliwood's sprite and crashed the game when I tried to engage him. I think it's because normally even if you have battle animations on, battling Kishuna doesn't use them, but since he had a sprite that actually has battle animations, it attempted to go into an animated battle. I have no idea how it happened, though; iirc it involved him moving into the space where he normally spawns, and I've gotten him to spawn outside that space before by putting a unit there but it never happened again. Maybe I used the Mine glitch on that map and that's what broke it?)
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, Jungle, and Ocean
Why do your posts go off into random tangents? Are you doing it on purpose?

To discuss Chrono Cross's chances in this contest has nothing to do with Fire Emblem glitches.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
I really tried to convince myself to take 'gears but just couldn't do it.

Hope it wins though.
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
I haven't read a Tsunami post that I couldn't read in two seconds in years.
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gotta teach Tsunami how to use the enter key. it helps!
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xyzzy
11/6/2015 10:13:14 PM#298
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 12 – (4) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. (13) Pokemon X/Y

Moltar’s Analysis

This is like MM vs GSC on a smaller scale. WW is no MM, but people do look back on it well, and it has a recent remake going for it. Pokemon XY doesn't get the nostalgia boost that the older Pokemon games get and couldn't even beat Zelda ALBW.

still it's pokemon tho it'll do way better than it should

Moltar’s Bracket: Wind Waker

Moltar’s Prediction: Wind Waker - 58%



Transience’s Analysis

There's always a weird level of concern when Pokemon is involved. Fortunately, we've seen this match play out several times and it's always been okay. Galaxy beat Diamond/Pearl in a fourway pretty easily, and then beat R/S/E in GOTD. Both were 60/40ish affairs. Also, we saw Majora's Mask beat an actual Pokemon game with strength in GSC.

Pokemon X/Y seems to be highly respected amongst the fanbase and I'm definitely a little concerned that shrinking vote totals means that we have more Pokemaniacs running around. Wind Waker is strong enough to alleviate the concern though. It would take a game of GSC's strength to hang with Wind Waker and X/Y is just too new for this ancient website. This might end up being dicey if things align in a weird way but I can't see it align enough for Zelda to lose. If it does then we should welcome our RBY overlords with open arms.

transience's prediction: Wind Waker with 61%



Leon’s Analysis

We all know Zelda wins this one, but by how much? Pokemon has generally been good about resisting SFF, but we’ve only really seen that with the older generations. It’s hard to say how strong X/Y is. Only R/B/Y and G/S/C have displayed any notable strength, so I doubt it’s that strong despite the praise it’s received. There’s not much to say about this one because the winner is obvious, but there’s a pretty big range the percentage could fall in. It’s a total guess, so here’s mine!

Leonhart’s Vote: The Wind Waker

Leonhart’s Prediction: The Wind Waker with 63.75%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/6/2015 10:13:31 PM#299
Kleenex’s Analysis

The accursed Pokemon return for a second day in a row. This time, they’re up against a game that is light years away from TWEWY and with the game that’s certainly no G/S. Wind Waker is a much more legitimate game than I think a lot of people realize. This is the first chance our lord savior Link has to impress us this year, and the result should probably be a beating. X/Y were pretty well received games, but we’ve been shown a number of times that the newer Pokemon games don’t really hold a candle to the first two in terms of contest strength. I expect that to ring true here as well and think Wind Waker will put up some impressive numbers. If X/Y manages to make something of a match of this, then Link help us all, the Dark Days are truly upon us.

Zelda: The Wind Waker with 70%



Guest’s Analysis - Eddv

This is actually potentially a really important match in this contest - a lot of people are expecting Pokémon RBY to be able to challenge and potentially even upset Ocarina of Time. This is a matchup of proxies, like the Vietnam War of contest matches.

There is actually only limited Data on Pokémon X/Y but I personally believe it will do significantly better than Diamond/Pearl/Platinum. It's a better game. It is regarded as such. It also is the start of a new and much beloved graphical overhaul for the series which makes it more significant than the much maligned Gen 4 or even Gen 5. Meanwhile, Windwaker is something of a black sheep among the Zelda crew but hey it's still Zelda. 2009 gives us basically no good information on it other than that it was able to hang in there with Melee SFFing it pretty hard.

So instead, I think the most relevant match here is this one: http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)The_Legend_of_Zelda:_Majora%27s_Mask_vs_(4)Pok%C3%A9mon_Gold/Silver/Crystal_2010

At the time, we all thought this poll represented a massively disappointing showing from GSC, but as we know now, Majoras mask was channeling OoT strength on its way to a victory which doesn't make Pokémon look too bad at all. X/Y doesn't have the Classic status that GSC has, but neither does Wind Waker carry MM channeling OoT strength., as evidenced by the 60/40 beatdown it received in 2010.

So basically, I expect this match to play out the same exact way. But if XY overperforms here, watch out - RBY may be our contest champion.

Zelda Wind Waker 54.5%
Pokémon XY 45.5%



Crew Consensus: Heh heh...the wind...it is blowing in Zelda's direction
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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