GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew
we
need to get these in a lot earlier this year since we've got four
matches at once. jamming these all in the topic at 10:30 isn't an option
really anymore --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
damn crew curse --- Welcome to the League of raytan, CBIX Guru winner! http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif |
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 5 – (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (14) Portal Moltar’s Analysis Well Portal is wasted here. It did well in 2010, scoring 45% on a strong game in RE4; but if Portal is on one level, Melee is about 2 or 3 levels above it. Melee is a game that went even with FFX, and FFX had no problem beating RE4. It's debatable to say whether or not SSBM is stronger or weaker now without any smashhype going on, but it's not going to drop this match. With FFX at 64% on HL today, Melee would do good to match that against Portal if it wants to show it's stronger than FFX (since Portal > HL obv). Moltar’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee Moltar’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee - 63% Transience’s Analysis I realized after day 1 that I'm most interested in watching the contest heavyweights try to outdo each other. Dragon Quest 8 and Persona 3 are having a good match today but I'm finding myself looking at the big picture a lot more. Chrono Trigger set a good bar and FFX is looking to meet expectations on HL2. Today KH2/MGS4 will get the attention (and rightly so) but I think I'm most interested in seeing how Melee/Portal shakes out. FFX and Melee more or less share a common opponent. Portal should be a little stronger than HL1 so if Melee outdoes FFX's percentage then it should be a clear favourite should they meet. (of course there's a Chrono Trigger in the way, but FFX/Melee is looking to be the bracket favourite for division 1) I personally think that Melee is a step above FFX so I'm going to predict that Melee impresses against Portal. I don't think a whole lot of Smash compared to 7-8 years ago but if there's one thing it's good at, it's embarrassing weaker competition. Everyone has played Smash and everyone likes it. It'll be interested to see if Portal can hold up and what that might mean for Portal 2/Sonic 2. transience's prediction: Melee with 65% Leon’s Analysis Portal got totally wasted in the bracket, possibly more than any other game. It got 45% on Resident Evil 4. That’s a really good performance. Now it gets thrown into essentially an unwinnable match against Melee (Keep in mind that I’m always talking about these matches with the assumption that there won’t be some weird rally, so if one happens, then who knows). I’m kind of surprised at the seeding disparity between Portal and Portal 2, considering my assumption had been that the original was more popular. I know nominations and seeding don’t necessarily correlate with strength, but still, it threw me off a little. Anyway, if you picked Melee to win the division, there’s no need to worry or fret if Portal puts up 40%+ here because it has some legit strength. Now if it exceeds 45% here, that might be a little cause for concern, but this might be a repeat of the original instance of Ulti’s infamous “utter destruction,” when Melee put up 57%~ on MGS2 in the original Games Contest. Leonhart’s Vote: Super Smash Bros. Melee Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee with 56.75% --- no space all business |
Kleenex’s Analysis This should be an easy win for Super Smash Bros. Lost to Brawl. The internet isn’t overrun with dank Portal memes anymore, and Melee was always the stronger game anyway. Chrono Trigger put up strong numbers in its first match, and Melee needs to do the same if it wants to have a shot when that match comes (because CT is beating FFX, you see). All that being said, Portal put up some shockingly strong numbers in Game of the Decade, and if five year old stats are anything to go by (and they are according to certain illustrious crew members !!), Melee might not look as strong as it wants to. Personally, I’m erring on the side of Portal contracting Batman syndrome. Super Smash Bros. Melee with 64% Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier Portal got placed into a bad position in the bracket, getting wasted to Melee in round 1. Portal most certainly has the strength to win 1 or 2 matches with a more ideal bracket placement. Meanwhile, Portal 2 could potentially win 2 matches. As for the actual Melee/Portal match, Portal should hold up reasonably well and not get destroyed too badly. Using RE4/Portal and FFX/RE4 from GotD, FFX is projected at 61.53% on Portal. Melee's strength should be in the same general area as FFX, so this match probably turns out being roughly close to 60/40. With the release of Portal 2 and Steam getting even bigger since GotD, Portal could possibly do well enough to hold Melee under 60%. Luster Soldier's Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee Luster Soldier's Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee - 60.66% Crew Consensus: Melee smashes Portal --- no space all business |
Crew consensus: portal was wasted here --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Leon clinging to x-stats! --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... Leon clinging to x-stats! more like clinging to a way Melee doesnt beat FFX in R3 assuming it gets there --- Anime List: http://myanimelist.net/profile/superange VG List: http://myvideogamelist.com/profile/superange128 Visual Novels: https://vndb.org/u6633/votes |
Lopen's Unofficial Half-assed Guest Analysis: The cake is a die, am I right? I'll be here all night. Lopen's prediction: Smash Brother with 60.10% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
hey man X-Stats were right today! I do think Portal is a lot better than you guys are giving it credit for though! I even said Portal putting up that number wouldn't be cause for concern if you had Melee winning the division! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 11/5/2015 5:28:21 PM)report |
also
I did all the writeups for the first two divisions before the contest
started so anything weird I say is possibly a result of that --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
rooting for Halo 3 and Game Fuel despite seeing some pretty shocking Halo polls recently it has died with the Xbox --- satoru iwata |
one more Xbone in the coffin (I'd have picked Halo 1 if it were in this match though. I don't have much faith in Last of Us) --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Yeah,
I really wanted to go Halo. I share your lack of trust in Last of Us --
and also like Halo! -- but I forgot how poorly it did even last
contest, before Microsoft became the Internet's sworn enemy. Weird that
Halo 3 made it over the original, given how that went last time. --- satoru iwata |
uhhh HM Halo 1 is in the contest, and got a higher seed than Halo 3! --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Excuse me how did I miss this Let's see... Oh Minecraft and then FF7. That's why I missed it! Totally set path. Well, at least it's in! --- satoru iwata (edited 11/5/2015 5:58:28 PM)report |
you may not have recognized it, because it is in under the title only hardcores would know, Halo: Combat Evolved --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
in my defense, I looked at the bracket like three times! --- satoru iwata |
maybe hm took minecraft over halo and that's why he didn't recognize it --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Never! Chose Halo on day 1 and never looked back Screw your Steve --- satoru iwata |
let me tell ya, none of these 343 Halos will ever be in these contests. Bungie's games >>> * speaking of Bungie...seriously thinking I underestimated Destiny b --- Communists |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... isn't steve master chief's name excuse me it is john geez --- satoru iwata |
I've always thought StarCraft/Destiny was a reverse Halo/StarCraft from 2004. --- satoru iwata |
i have starcraft and i have huge regrets --- http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
ZFS posted... WarThaNemesis2 posted...isn't steve master chief's name brrrrrrrrrrrrrr appledough --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? #theresafreakingghostafterus |
Destiny
gets a lot of shit, but its still crazy popular. I know that doesn't
always translate to GameFAQs where the 90s never ended and Japan ruled
the AAA industry, but the The Taken King got a lot of great buzz. --- Communists |
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 6 – (6) Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs. (11) The World Ends With You Moltar’s Analysis woo pokefear GSC is another wasted game as it could've caused a lot of damage elsewhere in the bracket. It'll beat up TWEWY but then runs into a Melee brick wall next round. Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Moltar’s Prediction: Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal - 76% Transience’s Analysis You know, everyone is going wild with Pokemon after it went absolutely insane in 2013. Why are people not talking about GSC > Melee? Yeah, RBY is the darling but GSC was never far behind. Oh, right, it's because Majora exposed it a little in GOTD. We'll come back to this next round in much more detail, but if people are really confident in RBY beating Mario 3, they should take a good long look at this match too. TWEWY is perennial fodder for big games to go to town on. Not sure why we keep seeing it year after year, but it'll get its customary tripling here and go home quietly. transience's prediction: Pokemon GSC with 72% Leon’s Analysis Poor TWEWY just can’t catch a break. It was essentially equal with Persona 4 in GOTD, but because P4 barely won while TWEWY barely lost to Dead Rising, everyone talks about how awesome Persona 4 is while everyone laughs at TWEWY. Neku nearly pulled out a win in the last Character Battle but couldn’t close the deal against Catherine. Now TWEWY gets thrown into an unwinnable match against G/S/C where it will probably get blown out and everyone will dismiss it yet again. Maybe one of these days, it’ll make a breakthrough, but it won’t be today. Leonhart’s Vote: The World Ends With You Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal with 72.03% Kleenex’s Analysis The first chance for The Pokemon Menace to flex its muscles. 2004 aside, Gold/Silver has always looked pretty strong. 45% against Majora’s Mask, didn’t get SFF’d into oblivion by RBY - it even got a higher seed than RBY did this year! TWEWY on the other hand...well it almost won a match once. There’s no debate as to the result here, this match is just a measuring stick for later. There is a debate to be had though - is TWEWY one of the most obnoxious initialisms ever? We think so, but we want to hear from you. Sound off in the comments below! Pokemon Gold/Silver with 73% Guest’s Analysis - BetrayedTangy Despite TWEWY being an amazing game, it's not going to win this match. TWEWY can't even beat fodder like Dead Rising, there's no way it can take down the second strongest Pokemon game. Pokemon Gold/Silver - 67% The World Ends With You - 33% Crew Consensus: The Match Ends With Pokemon --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Yes, TWEWY is a stupid acronym. |
Lopen's Guest Analysis, on par for effort with the actual guest today: Kind of expect a bigger blowout here than is deserved cause of some manner of weird portable game SFF thing goin on here. I don't think Gold/Silver is going to be a monster or anything, but it should look like one in this match. Lopen's prediction: Pokeman with 78.90% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Good
show by DQVIII - I got that one completely wrong, looks like it's
simply the more respected game of the two. CT annihilates R&C3,
making it the favourite against FFX, since it gave up over 35% of the
vote to Half-Life. And lastly MMX strikes one for OldGameFAQs in blowing
the heck out of Arkham City, which might be the most indicative result
of all of these. SSBM/Portal: Portal got 45% on RE4, which got 45% or so on FFX. Melee gets into the high 50s here by default as a result. Potentially higher. Pokemon GSC/TWEWY: Well TWEWY was weaker than P4, which got 30% on RE4. I'd probably take GSC to beat RE4 at worst, and this is likely a favourable match for it given the handheld overlap. I can see GSC going big here. Let's say 76% or so. MGS4/KHII: There's a pretty big range of possible results here depending on where you think these series and games have gone since 2010. I tend towards MGS4 having fallen off further while KH2 will have retained its strength. KH2 dismissed Bioshock handily back in GOTD, and I'm honestly not sure I'd take MGS4 > Bioshock today, especially after seeing Arkham City get blown out. Feeling pretty good about KHII seeing MGS4 off easily. The Last of Us/Halo 3: The most fun match of the day I think. A little Sony vs. Microsoft rivalry instead of Square/Nintendo, and it's pretty much guesswork as to how much TLOU will be worth. But it beat GTAV twice in GOTY polls, it has a metric ton of respect, and it's against Halo 3, not Halo: CE. I'm going for it to impress, reaching the high 50s. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information (edited 11/5/2015 7:21:30 PM)report |
Time for G/S/C to get over 80% to give me belief that it crushes melee when they meet! --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 7 – (7) Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. (10) Kingdom Hearts II Moltar’s Analysis This match would have been pretty fire in 2009 when MGS4 was a beast. By 2010, the honeymoon period for MGS4 was over and it had lost a step. Now we're five years and one more MGS game from that, and MGS4 has not aged gracefully. Fans of the series don't look back on it as fondly as they do with 3, and now MGSV is the honeymoon MGS game. KH2 isn't a game MGS4 can just coast on through too. It should be able to take advantage of this weaker MGS4 because KH fans are still insanely devoted to 2. Moltar’s Bracket: Kingdom Hearts II Moltar’s Prediction: Kingdom Hearts II - 54% Transience’s Analysis You know, we're probably all going to side with KH2 here and be embarrassed. This match reeks of Crew Curse. Past results definitely point to KH2. KH2 was about equal to MGS3 in 2009 and MGS4 has fallen in popularity since its meteoric rise in 2008. Bandwagon or not, SOTC probably doesn't beat KH2. KH2 ended up getting exposed a bit against Twilight Princess but so would any MGS title. I'm not too worried about KH2 losing popularity. Also, there are hype polls out there where KH3 tops MGSV (and FFXV, for that matter). That kind of thing is a good barometer for series interest. KH fans are still there even though the series has been dormant for a decade. In a way, that actually makes those titles retain value: nothing has come along and displaced KH2 on this website. The dumb spinoffs honestly don't even count. Here's what worries me with Metal Gear. It's the "in" series right now with MGSV releasing two months ago. Back in 2006 we had a series contest and Metal Gear Solid (MGS1/2/3) beat Kingdom Hearts (1/2) like 58/42. The site clearly prefers Metal Gear as a whole over Kingdom Hearts. Does that translate to individual games? I don't know. My gut tells me Metal Gear here even though 4 has dropped precipitously over the last 5 years. I'm going with my brain and picking KH2, but I also did that with Persona 3 over DQ8 and look where that got me! transience's prediction Kingdom Hearts 2 with 52% Leon’s Analysis I feel like this could have been a debatable match back in GOTD, but I think MGS as a whole is in decline (The hype level for MGSV was a lot lower than what it was for MGS4, for instance) and no game in the series has taken a harder hit for it than MGS4. It already made a precipitous drop from its 2008 GOTY and 2009 Games Contest performances to GOTD in 2010, and it’s been five more years since then. If there’s such a thing as anti-nostalgia, MGS4 has it. It feels like the more time passes, the less fondly people remember MGS4. It’s a bizarre phenomenon because I haven’t really seen this happen with any other major game. Kingdom Hearts, on the other hand, is one of those series you’d think would start to go away because we’re going on 9 years and counting since the last numbered entry in the series. Yet KH3 still continues to do well in these hype polls despite no indication that this game is coming out anytime soon. KH fans are eternal optimists. Plus, we’ve been getting bombarded with these KH.5 HD Remix things over the last couple of years, which may not help much, but it can’t hurt either! I see this as a match that stays fairly close until the ASV hits, and then KH2’s patented day vote takes advantage of MGS’s atrocious day vote to pull away for a comfortable victory. Leonhart’s Vote: Kingdom Hearts II Leonhart’s Prediction: Kingdom Hearts II with 55.10% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis Hoo boy. This match is actually kind of funny. Six years ago, it would have been a great debatable match because of how strong both games were. Today, it’s a great debatable match because both games have fallen from the public eye and we have to figure out which one fell more. I think Metal Gear has more working against it than Kingdom Hearts does. Metal Gear seems to have suffered from some kind of backlash on the site over the past year or so. Maybe it’s Konami’s fault, who knows, but the games just don’t seem to be much of a draw in polls as they did in the series’ heyday. Yeah yeah, I know non-contest polls don’t mean much, but still. Perhaps Snake getting excluded from Smash 4 killed him??? On the flip side, Kingdom Hearts is just kind of...there. No true sequel in almost ten years, but that also means there’s no much to talk about. In this case, I think no news is good news and people will vote for distant fond memories over more recent, slightly soured ones. Also the box art is way more colorful. Kingdom Hearts II with 53% Guest’s Analysis - The_Ctes If this match happened in BGE2 contest, MGS4 would be very likely to win. Then GotD came by and they looked very close. It shows that the intial strength MGS4 had died down fast. Those two contests are only one year apart. Give it another year and I think KHII would be the favorite. Those games appear to held up better. In general, it's crazy where the two kings of 2008, Brawl and MGS4, are now compared to then. Going from getting to the top eight and likely prevent a final spot from each other to not being in the contest and be favored to lose in round 1. Well, that says a lot more about Brawl and is somewhat unrelated, but still! Think about that for a monent. If this was a series contest, MGS would be the favorite, but it's the stongest Kingdom Hearts game facing what's probably only the third strongest MGS game. MGS4 is, as mentioned, far past its prime. GameFAQs polls are no guarantee for anything when it comes to contests, but I'm gonna bring them up regardless. It's worth mentioning that several people looked forward to KHIII than MGSV in several polls. However, MGSV is actually out now, while we know almost nothing of KHIII yet. It comes down to how much MGSV boosts the rest of the series. There is gonna be a small boost surely, as it's quite recent, but I don't think it's enough here. MGSV has not had as succesful a launch as MGS4 and the boost to the other games back then was somewhat minimal. Plus, this contest, Snake hasn't exactly just been announced for a big Nintendo game or something that has made new people aware of the series. Although surely that helped Snake more than Metal Gear. Anyway, the boost is not gonna be big now eiher and it kind of needs to be. So in short, it'll be somewhat close most of the match, maybe we'll even see MGS4 lead over the night, if it isn't leading a lot though, the match is over. When the day vote comes KHII will take the win. Metal Gear Solid 4: 45.12% Kingdom Hearts II: 54.88% Crew Consensus: KH2 sweep...uh oh --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
tranny curse in effect save em Lopen --- Communists |
called the crew curse I've been waffling on this one a lot today. --- xyzzy |
and we've got some crazy trends with this match. MGS could win the night convincingly and still lose. --- xyzzy |
Lopen's unofficial outsider analysis: No real x-stats or contest history guiding me here as much as me just thinking that Metal Gear Solid 4 is the type of game that is going to age poorly. I mean it may just be because I was one of the big detractors about a lot of even what's considered the good stuff, but the more the opening hype for the game wore off it felt like people be all too eager to jump ship and say "yeah that game kinda had a lot of dumb stuff going for it" Kingdom Hearts on the other hand is a series that I feel is desperately in need of a new entry at this point, and so I don't expect it to be super strong or anything, but it should be enough to hold off Metal Gear. At the very least I feel as if it has aged well. UH OH indeed Lopen's Unofficial Prediction: Kingdom Hearts 2 with 55.55% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
welp --- Communists |
my day 1 prediction topic had dq8 over persona 3 it also had mgs4 over kh2 --- xyzzy |
Lopen getting to see all the percentages and then throw in his own percentage is a disgrace taking the high percentage from me I've felt good about KH2 from the start though. Not like P3 where I always felt like DQ8 had a decent chance of winning. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Hey
you'll just have to trust me that I'm honor coding the percentage. I'm
pretty sure me having the highest or lowest percentage for like 80% of
matches is the standard even when I'm sending predictions in in advance! But not like my points count anyway! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
This doesn't make any sense. Why were we all wrong? Cause we can't predict things to save our lives. /topic --- Shooting Game never die. It prays that the clover of luck be always in your mind. |
