GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7
We should officially call Samus the Momentum Killer. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
Will the Crew be doing write-ups for the bonus match later tonight? We'll need a guest for that match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Too bad Red couldn't do something cool here. Noble Nine vs. 2 Pokemon is snoozeville --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Safer_777 posted... If Samus wins, I propose at the final match to have a picture with them and instead of their normal names to have these: Draaaaaaaaaaaven-Snaaaaaaaaaaake-Saaaaaaaaaaaamus! That would be an awesome pic This is fabulous. --- Hentai? I didn't ask for hentai. I asked for anime, you moron. *clicks and downloads* - Hayato118 |
Unsolicited Guest Analysis Wow, yeah, glad my analysis for this last match wasn't used, because I totally expected that beating what should've been a boosted Charizard despite Zero's presence meant that Mega Man was actually stronger. Now, though, Mega Man looks exactly like the character that I previously predicted would get rSFFed into third place. My new theory is that with four Pokémon characters already in the Final 9, Pokémon was getting anti-voted hard, and everyone flocks to the one most likely to pull the upset in such a situation, so a lot of votes that normally would've gone to Zero went to Mega Man instead. That, and the expected Mega Charizard boost never showed up. Remember what it was that created that expectation in the first place? Mewtwo, looking absolutely beastly. Pikachu did a nice job navigating the bracket, a run of favorable matches to rival what he did in '08, but people don't worry about antivotes in a bonus match and we saw from the Pikachu/Sora/Blue match that Pokéfans are able to drop the weaker character when it counts. (Pikachu-Squirtle was close because everyone already knew that neither of them would be able to challenge Snake anyway, and were more interested in finding out which one was the stronger character.) Pikachu won't quite do as poorly against Mewtwo as Blue did against Pikachu, but he'll do what needs to be done and take a dive. Mewtwo with 39.19% Mega Man with 36.52% Pikachu with 24.29% --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
sounds like an eminently reasonable analysis to me --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Will the Crew be doing write-ups for the bonus match later tonight? We'll need a guest for that match. well I got some write-ups so I guess I'll post those, but they aren't going to count for anything now if you guys want to fight over who gets the Draven/Snake/Samus write-up then be my guest (no pun intended) --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
There will also be a bonus match after the final match. The bonus match will be Draven/Link. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Bane_Of_Despair posted... paulg235 posted...It was me who wrote that guest write-up, Moltar. Not Bane. forgot to change the guest name after the previous match, my bad! --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Leon's Analysis Oh hey, we just saw this one a couple days ago. Probably goes the same way, too. Picking Pikachu for second because match result is good one for Crono, says Stats Topic regular. Leonhart’s Vote: Mega Man Leonhart’s Prediction: Mega Man – 44.00% Pikachu – 30.00% Mewtwo – 26.00% Kleenex's Analysis Mega Man wins. Mewtwo with 25% Pikachu with 25% Mega Man with 50% KP's Analysis Only interesting part about this match is whether or not Mega Man beats Pokefear by less or more than Snake. Despite MM's skills at blowing out non-elites, I think he does worse. Besides being weaker than Snake, he doesn't stand out nearly as much as Snake does, and Mewtwo probably has slightly less overlap with Pikachu than Squirtle does. Mega Man - 47% Pikachu - 27% Mewtwo - 26% --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Moltar isn't bothering to do a write-up for this bonus match? --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Moltar's Analysis http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5263 This only MM won't do as well because he's weaker than Snake. Moltar's Prediction - Mewtwo: 28% - Pikachu: 28% - Mega Man: 44% --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
UH OH we're a little short on writeups tonight. *snaps on cape* Ngamer's Glorious Comeback Gen 1 Pokemon strike me as almost entirely interchangeable. Would anyone pick Mewtwo or Pikachu or Charizard to come up short against Cloud, given's Squirtle's exact (and frankly, ideal) circumstances? I think we'd mostly expect close to a mirror image if any of those swaps were made, which means this result comes down to where the 2013 versions of Snake and Mega Man sit. MM's had a bit of a resurgence recently with Smash and people buzzing about Mighty Number Nine in the past week, and he's coming in hot off good showings against Charizard and Samus and Red... so I'd expect him to hold up a littler better than the 55% Snake nailed him with in '06, but not THAT much better. Snake's looked too amazing for MM to handle in every single round to this point, meaning if he could manage 51% against the Pokemon MM should get around 45. As to Mewtwo vs Pikachu, that's a little tougher... I'd always assumed Pika was the King of the Pokepeople (at least since he passed the torch as #1 anti-vote magnet on the site), and that might be true under normal circumstances, but Mewtwo's coming in hot off his near-defeat of Draven* while Pika's the jerk who knocked off fan favorites Squirtle and Crono. When characters are this interchangeable, my advice is to always ride the hot hand. Final Prediction: Mewtwo - 28.50% Pikachu - 27% Mega Man - 44.50% * in the first three hours! --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show! |
For the record I would've taken Mewtwo for second here. But who cares! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Holy heck is Mewtwo ever laying the wood to Pikachu, boy must the regular Crew's faces be red right now! --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show! |
Check out Captain Hindsight over here trying to hog all my glory and adulation. No sir I won't stand for it. --- thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show! |
Huh, this makes Samus's performance yesterday look a little more impressive. Almost making me reconsider Snake > Samus! --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
Crew Predictions - 96/120 What Happened: Snake and Samus moving on What will Happen: Neither will win Crew Prediction Challenge KP - 99 Moltar - 98 Kleenex - 95 Tran - 95 Leon - 95 Guest - 93 Lopen - 85 Crew Expert Challenge KP - 81 Tran - 78 Moltar - 76 Leon - 74 Kleenex - 69 Guest - 66 Lopen - 61 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets Snake, Tran gets Squirtle, KP gets Pika and Red, Leon gets Samus, PaulG gets MM Moltar - 76 KP - 66 Leon - 62 Tran - 59 Lopen - 51 Kleenex - 50 Guest - 47 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (3), Nintendoboy, PaulG (6), Bane (4), Chris (2), lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (5), meche, nameplz, pjbasis, FF999 (2), betrayed, TRT, HM (2), tnote, Janus, Luster) --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Also still need a Guest for the final match --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
oh I'll send you an analysis for it gimme 5 minutes --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
emergency guest analysis: Samus and Snake are two of he few N9 characters to do well, but Draven beat the strongest Link we've seen in years so that's something I guess. Too bad we know who always wins these. Draven - 40% Snake - 32% Samus - 28% Link - 77.41% --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
done check your spam filter --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Janus the answer is Final Fantasy 7 with 77.41% you dummy Partial credit for Cloud and/or Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
#225 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/14/2013 10:19:17 PM | message detail | quote | (edited) |
Finals: Match 121 – (3) Draven vs. (1) Solid Snake vs. (1) Samus Aran Moltar’s Analysis Draven Round 1 - 40.47% vs. Jak and Chie Round 2 - 66.52% vs. MMX and Ryu Round 3 – 44.65% vs. Link and Shepard Round 4 – 45.07% vs. Mewtwo and Sephiroth That's so Draven Snake Round 1 - 71.21% vs. Isaac (GS) and Keen Round 2 – 60.57% vs. Alucard and Bayonetta Round 3 – 47.58% vs. GlaDOS and Kefka Round 4 – 51.12% vs. Pikachu and Squirtle woo snake Samus Round 1 – 68.51% vs. Sandbag and Isaac C Round 2 – 61.85% vs. Knuckles and Catherine Round 3 – 41.70% vs. Tifa and L-Block Round 4 – 38.48% vs. Mega Man and Red woo samus Keeping this short and sweet. Reddit pushes Draven to a win, Snake gets a decent rally to take second, and Samus gets the least outside support to take third despite being the strongest and best character here, gg everyone see you next year. Also if there are three things that I've learned from this contest, this is what they are. While 3-ways had a few high points, 1v1 still reigns supreme. I care more about predicting what GameFAQs voters think than predicting what voters from other sites are told to do. 90% of the time rallies go against what I want and screw me over so yeah this was fun times for me Moltar’s Prediction: Draven: 43% - Snake: 33% - Samus: 24% Lopen’s Analysis Thanks to everyone who's read any of our analyses this year, or any year! I'm not sure I've said this in write-up form before... I've certainly thought this after say, the Rivalry Rumble, but this is probably my last year doing this barring some huge vote total increase or some weird format shift like electoral college votes. I mean, I don't wanna be a whiner, but there's just something offputting about about there being as many Pokemon as NNers in the final 9. Well, among a lot of other things, but that's the best visual for the state of the contests right now, for me. Oh right, there's a match here too. To put it bluntly, Snake's only hope here is that AJ Lee rallies for him on twitter or something similarly absurd. While I think it's feasible that Snake could be about as strong as Link here, and even that he could draw as many rallied votes, Samus being that much stronger than Shepard is going to hurt Snake a lot. And hell, Samus could just beat Snake outright, too. Honestly I have a feeling if it wasn't a rally war Samus would just straight out beat Snake, but as it is Snake is going to be the one people try to give the push so Samus is going to be left behind, in Mewtwo/Sephiroth style. Won't be enough, though. I want to pick it but I don't have evidence or even a gut feeling that this is likely to work. But I mean, rallies, so whatever. It could happen! But I'll let someone else pick it. Who's feeling a Samus CURSEEEEE? Hey, that gut feeling I was saying was absent is sneaking up... maybe I should pick her... but the only reason I feel it is on the stipulation of CURSE so... I guess that means Samus is going to catch around 22% of the vote here. Alas. Lopen's Prediction: Draven - 41.34% Solid Snake - 36.44% Samus Aran - 22.22% |
Leonhart’s Analysis Bacon says he’s not convinced Draven will still win the contest, but he’s already got Link vs. Draven as the bonus match ready to go. Hmm…! Snake vs. Samus would be a nice side match to care about if Draven wasn’t around to pollute the result. Someone’s probably going to get rallied as “the best chance to beat Draven” and leave the other one relatively far behind, like what happened with Mewtwo and Seph (because I don’t think Mewtwo would’ve done that with a neutral third character in the match, though he may have still won). Not sure which character that’ll be though. Snake and Samus are both looking to be relatively equal in strength. With all the extra votes from Europe Draven brings, I’d guess Snake, but who knows. Let’s get to a 1-on-1 match! Leonhart’s Vote: Solid Snake Leonhart’s Prediction: Draven – 45.00% Solid Snake – 30.00% Samus Aran – 25.00% Kleenex’s Analysis I was originally planning on doing a parody of The Raven for this match, but I had a hard time thinking of a good way of turning Lenore into Link while keeping the rhyming scheme going. Oh well. This whole contest was series of missed opportunities for me on the analysis department (although I Can't Beat Pokemon probably wouldn't have worked seeing as Mega Man beat Charizard...and Red and Pikachu and Mewtwo). For being the final match of the contest there's not a whole lot to talk about here. Draven will clean up because that's how this goes. As far as the battle for second place goes I think we see a repeat 2006. Samus has looked too damn good all contest and she's the sole Nintendo rep here. Sorry Snake. Overall I was pretty disappointed with the contest this year. This probably doesn't come as much of a shock, and I think most of the crew probably feels the same way based on the lack of effort put into our writeups for the later parts of it (to be fair 121 writeups is a lot). I'm fine with shocking upsets happening, but I'm not that happy with the way a lot of them went down. I've also found last minute rallies with giant final updates kinda gross even when they go in my favor, and the Draven stuff was just a little too much in general. If other people liked it that's fine, but that's just not how I like my contests to pan out. I'm willing to see what Bacon's got cooked up for the next one, but if it turns out like this again it might be time to let these things ride off into the sunset. Kleenex's Prediction Draven with 53.46% Snake with 21.88% Samus with 24.56% --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Transience’s Analysis So, Draven wins. I don't think anybody doubts that. The only way Snake or Samus could have a chance is if they had a Link-like situation and the third wheel was weak in comparison. In this case, they're about equal. Snake vs. Samus is fun. Samus has earned a reputation of being a momentum killer against non-Nintendo characters. You see, people still think she's weaker than Mario. She's pretty much equivalent, but gets beat down when going up against Mario or Link. We've known that much since 2005 but people always want to discredit her for getting blown up repeatedly by Mario. Fair enough, I guess. She's a bit of a fraud but has never been weaker than top 6 on the site. Snake, on the other hand, has been an absolute murderer this contest, and has been #2 in my mind for quite a while. Say what you will about Mega Man losing to Samus, and about what happened in 2006. Snake isn't rising up anymore, he's just that strong. Also, I think that as the years pass, more and more people straight up grew up with Snake. Anyone under the age of 21 probably can't remember a time before Solid Snake. Also, if one of these characters catches some votes from the Draven goonswarm, it's probably Snake. I'm going that way. Pretty cool contest this year. I definitely thought the final 27 was going to be a snoozefest and it was anything but. See you next abomination, I guess! transience's prediction: Draven with 49% Snake with 28% Samus with 23% KP's Analysis Wish there was more to say about this one, but... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jajAg-LrdTM&t=2m14s Draven - 43% Snake - 29% Samus - 28% Guest’s Analysis - AKJ I don't want to drone on and soapbox about how much fun this contest was because that's a privilege reserved for those sucker crew members that suffered through all 756 matches in the contest. I will say that I've had a ridiculous amount of fun with the recent rallies, and I don't just mean Draven. Pokefear cracks me up. I don't know what the future of contests holds, but I do know Reddit has this one locked up. I don't blame them. It's fun. When NISA was doing an online poll to get names for NPCs in one of the Disgaea games, GameFAQs flooded them with nominations and we completely overwhelmed and drowned out the rest of the participants. It happens time and again when polls are open to everyone, whether it's making Time's Man of the Year somebody hilarious or naming some bridge something ridiculous. The trend will continue here, when Draven doesn't look back on his way to dominating the bracket. I will say, if not for Draven bringing in these crazy numbers of votes, my tiebreaker would've been ludicrously high. As it is, even though it's meaningless, it'll probably end up pretty close! Thanks, Draven! Goodnight, sweet smash brother and sister. Welcome to the Contest of Draven. Draven 68.17% Solid Snake 19.33% Samus 12.50% Crew Consensus: Quoth the Draven, "DRAAAAAVEN" --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
come on draven rally gimme that accuracy point --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Leonhart’s Analysis Has he said that recently (i.e., after Draven/Mewtwo/Sephiroth)? I don't remember him saying that recently. I'm thinking maybe he actually thought that our plan to use Pokérallies to take him out in the semifinals had a chance of working, and that once Draven reached the finals, Allen conceded that Draven had this contest locked up. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. Congratulations to Guru champion, the mighty raytan. |
He said it in MoogleKupo's topic after Link/Draven, so it depends on your definition of "recently." --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
one last chance for a crew curse --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Also, it's kind of funny that only the guest and tranny had something nice to say about the contest! --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
Lopen missing the freeze accuracy point for Samus by that much! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
moltar's just tsundere toward the contest --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Snake doing us proud --- I do because I can.....and because I'm bored. http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
bonus match is going to be explosive if draven pulls this out at the end --- xyzzy |
Probably, but in a match where David Hayter is rooting for Snake, who cares? --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
crew curse activating obviously --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I hope Snake wins and I've never played a MGS game! (And I play LoL.) --- http://i.imgur.com/yDr2KJy.gif http://i.imgur.com/fZbEYu0.gif |
ha, best rallying yet or at least it was --- Moltar Status: Crew Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
The Mana Sword posted... Glad I'm not a Snake fan right now! man i just jumped to snake as the next best chance after our true hero link went down. and that was just painful. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Link will save it --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Nah, not even Link can handle 800 vote updates in the middle of the afternoon. --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Sounds like the amount of disbelief that cost you crew points last time!! No one stops LINK in a 1v1 tbqh --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Well if people want to get themselves hyped up for a big disappointment for the 4th time in a row tomorrow, who am I to judge. --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Hey Link would have won without downtime! It was right to be hyped that time. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
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