Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7

#101 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 8:53:10 PM | message detail | quote
pjbasis posted...
Signing up for Samus/Squall/Charizard


hold your horses
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#102 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 9:13:08 PM | message detail | quote
Fine I'll sign up for Draven/Snake/Squall instead
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#103 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 10:18:40 PM | message detail | quote
Division Final: Round 3 - Match 116 – (6) Vivi vs. (2) Squall Leonhart vs. (4) Pokemon Trainer Red

Moltar’s Analysis

Vivi
Round 1 – 62.18% vs. Adam and Marisa
Round 2 – 41.27% vs. Mario and Ganondorf

Mario easily wins hi-wait what

Squall
Round 1 – 65.85% vs. Rayman and Video
Round 2 – 39.38% vs. Missingno and Amaterasu

Squall beating Pokemon looks about 100 times more impressive now

Red
Round 1 – 70.78% vs. Corvo and Sissel
Round 2 – 51.58% vs. Wrex and Wario

Red still looking strong

Looks like things have returned to normal for the most part.

Or have they? Pokemon has looked too good this round, including beating several Noble Niners and overcoming the odds against vote splits. This split is actually beneficial to Pokemon, so I can't see Red blowing this match.

Squall seems to be the obvious choice for second, but Vivi seems to have ignited the masses after beating Mario last round. I think he'll get a bandwagon because of that and split heavily with Squall.

With Red comfortably in first, I believe the attention will be diverted to at least beating Squall for second. The gap between them shouldn't be large enough to make that impossible either.

Moltar’s Prediction: Vivi: 31% - Squall: 30% - Red: 39%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well Squirtle proved my offerings don't actually help, so I don't know what to do with this match. I guess... actually analyze it? Maybe?

I mean, I think that Vivi + Squall have enough independence that their overlap isn't going to totally rule them out of the match. However, the way this site is I'm not sure Pokemon Trainer isn't actually stronger than them outright... yeah, I know. What a bleak fate.

So Vivi has momentum and well, a lot of that Mario performance was non rally so it's possible he boosted a lot. He also has potential to out rally the Pokemon Trainer.
Squall is probably the strongest naturally and isn't likely to fold here
Pokemon Trainer has PokeFEAR and being the scrappy underdog... and a LFF split but who needs that.

I think the right choice is to believe here. Vivi can do it. Beating Mario's no joke, even with Ganon in the poll. And Gary Oak/Pika/Sora just showed us that LFF isn't everything.

Lopen's prediction:
Master Vivi - 36.55%
Squall Leonhart - 32.37%
Pokemon Trainer - 31.08%



Leonhart’s Analysis

There’s only three ways I see this match playing out:

1. Squall SFFs Vivi into the ground and his natural strength advantage over Red is enough to let him advance
2. Vivi and Red suffer the first instance of Rally LFF and Squall advances because the rally votes get split
3. Everyone finally realizes that Squall is the best character ever and wins in a rout

Personally rooting for scenario #3 since it’s our best hope of beating Draven, but in any case, Squall wins, so it’s all good!

Leonhart’s Vote: Squall Leonhart

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Squall Leonhart – 99.99%
Pokemon Trainer Red – 0.01%
Vivi Ornitier – 0.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

We truly apologize for the lack of Pokemon in the previous match. We not return you to your regularly scheduled Pokebattle.

Snark aside, I actually think Squall has an outside shot here. I don't think Red benefits from Pokefever as much as the actual creatures do, and if there's enough of a difference between their base strengths, Squall could get the "upset". I think I'll pick it because why the hell not.

Kleenex's Prediction
Squall with 40.00%
Red with 35.00%
Vivi with 25.00%
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#104 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 10:18:45 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

So I'm pretty sure everyone picks Red to win this. Well, I'm sure Leon fanboys it up, but besides him. Red has a pretty decent power gap between him and Squall, and maybe even Vivi, but the split should be pretty damn hard here.

Squall vs. Vivi probably comes down to what you thought of the Mario match. Me, I'm not too terribly surprised that Vivi kept it kinda close. I had Mario pretty low compared to everyone else and don't think it was *that* big of a rally. The split was just pretty nasty.

This is both good for Vivi - he has natural strength - and bad, because let's face it, he ain't on Squall's level. I'd say to hope for goodtastefaqs but we're seeing Pokemon kill off legit contest champions. Plus, Leon's on the crew and thinks Squall is somehow good stuff, so yeah.

transience's prediction:

Red - 43%

Squall - 33%
Vivi - 24%



KP's Analysis

Red isn't going to pull a Sora. I'd be shocked if he did. Vivi is going get 3rd, probably even if he gets rallied, because Squall is way stronger than him.

With that said, Vivi winning is the only possible good result left in this contest, so I have to support it.

Vivi - 36%
Red - 34%
Squall - 30%


Guest’s Analysis - Bane

Ya go my Vivi! …….if it isn’t obvious already I would absolutely love if Vivi won after his amazing match with Mario, but I’m not delusional. Squall being in the mix to LFF him, Red being part of the PokeFEAR epidemic that’s sweeping the site, relying almost entirely on rallying……things don’t look too good for Vivi here. He beat Mario but now he has to prove that he can stay in and keep up with the big(ger) boys.


Squall wasn't going to have an easy match in either outcome of Mario/Vivi, so that’s a bit sad for him. He definitely has more pure strength than Vivi but if Vivi can rally yet again he might get some trouble. Coming off of a Missingno win when a lot of people thought he would be down for the count in the beginning of that match makes him look good, but can he overcome that ever-looming LFF and beat down Red?


Which now brings us to Red, the silent Pokémon hero. He doesn't need to say anything to get the job done and show his worth. Squall taking the win from Missingno was probably the best thing that could have happened to Red along with Mario losing, it’s like this contest WANTS Red to make it to the Final 9. The one thing that makes his chances of winning seem less likely is what happened with Blue, who was quickly silenced in his last match. The difference, however, was that there was Pikachu in that match to easily take the Poke-vote away from him. Red is able to avoid that and is arguably the stronger of the two Trainers anyway, so things still look great for him. Outside of Vivi’s surprise rallying and perhaps Poke-backlash, Red will most likely take this match and get his Final 9 spot.


But Vivi would win if this world was perfect. And since it does not matter AT ALL who wins this match for my bracket, I'm thumbs up for surprises!


Vivi- 28.21%
Squall- 34.42%
Red- 37.37%



Crew Consensus: Red is the favorite, but both Squall and even Vivi have support
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#105 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 10:20:41 PM | message detail | quote
That may have been the best set of writeups we've ever produced.
---
http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif
#106 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2013 11:15:07 PM | message detail | quote
Man this match is annoying me way more than it should
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#107 | Lopen | Posted 9/8/2013 11:15:43 PM | message detail | quote
Every Red match annoys me why do people like this character
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#108 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 11:17:51 PM | message detail | quote
Surprisingly I'm completely nonplussed
---
http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png
#109 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/8/2013 11:32:52 PM | message detail | quote
Okay, sure.

Draven/Mewtwo/Seph - Tsunami
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#110 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/8/2013 11:36:35 PM | message detail | quote
There, I've done my analysis. Not really much to analyze in a Draven match.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#111 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/9/2013 4:56:17 AM | message detail | quote
let's face it, he ain't on Squall's level

Indeed he's not.
#112 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 9/9/2013 5:28:54 AM | message detail | quote
#113 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/9/2013 5:43:00 AM | message detail | quote
whoops
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#114 | transcience | Posted 9/9/2013 5:53:15 AM | message detail | quote
wow, this contest continues to surprise me

get out Squall
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#115 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/9/2013 7:46:14 AM | message detail | quote
good job moltar calling this vivi > squall slaughter
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#116 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2013 9:10:37 AM | message detail | quote
Also I picked Red>Vivi>Squall in my expert so if I'd stuck with that for my analysis I would look like a genius

But screw that, I have principles
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#117 | transcience | Posted 9/9/2013 9:50:27 AM | message detail | quote
are people doing xstats for this contest? they're going to be pretty excellent
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#118 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:14:01 AM | message detail | quote
I have seen people doing them. Also Chester stats for good measure.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#119 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/9/2013 12:18:27 PM | message detail | quote
so who's taking zero > mega man tomorrow
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#120 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2013 3:04:28 PM | message detail | quote
transcience posted...
are people doing xstats for this contest? they're going to be pretty excellent


I've been working on them all contest.
---
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg
#121 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 10:08:46 PM | message detail | quote
AppIekidjosh posted...
good job moltar calling this vivi > squall slaughter


didn't go quite like how i expected but i'll take it!
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#122 | transience | Posted 9/9/2013 10:11:01 PM | message detail | quote
just wait until zelda ends up top 5 in the stats
---
xyzzy
#123 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 10:12:34 PM | message detail | quote | (edited)
Division Final: Round 3 - Match 117 – (1) Mega Man vs. (2) Zero (MMX) vs. (7) Charizard

Moltar’s Analysis

Mega Man
Round 1 – 55.28% vs. Magikarp and Geno
Round 2 – 56.67% vs. Jill and Kratos

Mega Man looks beastly against decent competition

Zero
Round 1 – 58.58% vs. Kratos A and Boko
Round 2 – 41.72% vs. Rikku and Cube

Zero does well too

Charizard
Round 1 – 59.16% vs. Riku and Nier
Round 2 – 41.49% vs. Zelda and DK

Pokemon still can't beatdown Zelda

Pokemon benefitting from a fanbase split? It's the previous match all over again!

Unlike Square fans though, Nintendo, and MM, fans, will abandon the weaker character to vote for the stronger one. Zero might have resisted SFF years ago against MM, but I doubt the same thing happens here.

MM fans are hungry, as the series has looked great all contest (Draven blowouts aside). I think even with Zero here, MM is going to give a real fight to Charizard. Hell, Charizard doesn't even look that great after struggling against Zelda. All that match proved is that Pokemon fans won't blow a close match.

And this is looking to be a...

...oh

Moltar’s Prediction: Mega Man: 41% - Zero: 17% - Charizard: 42%



Lopen’s Analysis

I know the gimme here is Charizard, and it's stupid to bet against Pokemon at this point in the game, especially seeing last match, but I'm doing it again.

Few reasons:

1. Mega Man has looked absolutely beastly this year, and he's got good reason to be with the way Capcom has been dicking him over and Smash
2. Charizard hasn't looked too hot. Heh heh get it because he's a fire ty-- okay I'm moving on to 3.
3. Voters have been smarter this year about "tactical abandonment" so I expect Zero is going to get smashed down to lower than usual.
4. Voters have to be becoming aware of Pokemon in every match, right? Pokebacklash due right? Okay, maybe this is a stretch.,,

So yeah, all that considered, Mega Man skirts by for this match, I think.

Lopen's prediction:
Mega Man - 42.59%
Charizard - 41.16%
Zero - 16.25%


Leonhart’s Analysis

Welcome to Favorable Pokemon Setup #142. Charizard nearly choked away a win against Zelda last round, but that could just be THE HIERARCHY coming into play. He’s probably still strong, and I have my doubts that Mega Man would win a match against him handily. Throw in Zero, who didn’t fold in 2008 when Mega Man desperately needed him to against WCC, and the Zard probably wins. I know I’m going to be doing my part by voting for Zero. Plus, if it’s close, RallyFAQs can push Pokemon over the top.

Leonhart’s Vote: Zero

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Charizard – 40.00%
Mega Man – 39.00%
Zero – 21.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Yeah, I don't even know anymore. Charizard should probably be the favorite. Mega Man might be able to win. Hell, maybe Zero can win! Who knows! There's no rhyme or reason for any of the results at this point, so analysis is pretty pointless. I guess POKEMON is the answer here.

Kleenex's Prediction
Mega Man with 35.00%
Zero with 25.00%
Charizard with 40.00%



Transience’s Analysis

Alright, I'm going to town on this one. Let's bring it back to the old days when people really analyzed matches.
#124 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 10:12:19 PM | message detail | quote
This match is like the Crono/Pikachu/Magus match, except that Charizard has a chink in his armour. Is Charizard the guy who put 46% on Mario? Is he equal to Squirtle who just straight up beat Cloud? Or is he the guy who needs a rally to beat Zelda? The answer is likely "all of the above". Pokemon just does what Pokemon does, and it never loses matches unless it has no business winning them. And this year, it even wins those.

So then there's Mega Man, another faded icon. Except Mega Man is somehow the opposite of faded now. How hot is Mega Man? He's as popular as he's been since 2004 when he got the anniversary collection. He's had his most popular games since the NES era in the last couple of years, he got a Brawl trailer, Inafune is bringing up all kinds of Mega Man nostalgia with Mighty No. 9... I mean, Mega Man has gotten more hype than anyone, right? The Noble Nine is falling left and right, but why is that?

Link - Zelda's gone way downhill since 2003
Cloud - FF7 now 16 years old, Kingdom Hearts on life support since 2006
Sephiroth - same as Cloud
Samus - got absolutely massacred as a character in Other M (surprisingly, this has had very little if any impact on her character)
Sonic - has gone from loved to mocked to just about ignored. People liked Sonic Generations but not enough to really rejuvenate anybody. I think Sonic fans bought Sonic and nobody else.
Mario - about the same as ever, but with the site trending away from new Nintendo, Mario probably suffers as much as anyone.
Crono - hahahaha

There's really only two guys who have reasons to do well - Snake, who's probably the favourite to win the contest outside of Draven, and then Mega Man. And he's got to deal with Zero who is definitely a weight in much the same way that Magus was. Pikachu would have beaten Crono with or without Magus, though. Would Charizard beat Mega Man?

I don't think so! I think people will stick with Mega Man. He's been awesome so far this contest -- which is only two rounds so who the hell knows -- there's absolutely no buildup when the contest is literally 5 rounds long -- this contest -- and along with being awesome, he's been the guy who's been in the spotlight more than anyone. So yeah, it makes sense that he'd boost. It makes sense that he would SFF Zero to dust. And if there's one thing Mega Man's been good at, it's beating up on non-Noble Nintendo characters. He just SFFs second-rate icons to the ground. Charizard.. isn't that. He's Pokemon and oh god Pokemon. And he's got a dead weight. He shouldn't win this.

But I'm going to go down with the sinking ship. Why not? Either Samus beats Charizard and Red or we get a crazy Samus/Mega Man/Red match.

transience's prediction:

Mega Man with 44%

Charizard with 43%
Zero with 13%



KP's Analysis

Mega Man in Brawl. Mighty No. 9 announced. Mega Man putting on fantastic performances so far. Charizard almost dropping it to Zelda. Mega Man has every reason to win this match, Zero be damned.
But, well, Pokefear.

Charizard - 41%
Mega Man - 40%
Zero - 19%
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#125 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/9/2013 10:13:21 PM | message detail | quote
Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

After that near-loss to Zelda, Charizard looked almost vulnerable, but given the way Mewtwo has boosted through the roof, far moreso than any other Gen I Pokémon, it’s not unreasonable to expect a boost from Mega Charizard’s announcement, even if the fact that he’s still not a Dragon-type means he’ll still be NU. Because the type of people who care about tier lists are only a small portion of Pokémon’s fanbase. Not that I’d call for this upset anyway…

…which brings me to the upset I will call for! The “New Square is dead” is really misleading; FFVIII kept getting put in impossible situations and FFIX and FFX have done just fine, all things considered. They just had the bad luck to run into rallied veteran joke characters, ones who were known to have power. Really, the only things Square that have been weak are FFVII (sort of) and CT (which is nothing new, and don’t try to tell me that Frog > Lugia means CT is still impressive; all that means is that Lugia was weak. You cannot convince me that Frog’s first-round match wasn’t a massive disappointment.) And yet the one FFX character who truly looks disappointing in defeat is Rikku, who just got annihilated by Zero. Wait, remind me again who the most disappointing Gen I Pokémon was? Jigglypuff, like, massively bombed, albeit in a match where she was expected to lose. That was against…Mega Man X?! Um…

Mega Man X (R1): 73.09% on Jigglypuff
Mega Man (R1): 63.35% on Magikarp

Mega Man did redeem himself somewhat in R2, but that’s when Zero went out and beasted…yeah, I’m going to say that this is the year that rSFF finally goes all the way.

Charizard with 48.59%
Zero with 25.71%
Mega Man with 25.7%
And here you thought I only took the Division 9 final when D3 and D6 were already taken because I’ve been openly rooting for Charizard to make the Final 3! Go, Zero!



Crew Consensus: Charizard gets another win for Pokemon
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#126 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/9/2013 10:18:22 PM | message detail | quote
man some people really just want to pick against Pokemon to the very end
#127 | Lopen | Posted 9/9/2013 10:31:27 PM | message detail | quote
Hey I'll have you know I've picked Pokemon plenty!

Mega Man got this
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#128 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/9/2013 11:25:42 PM | message detail | quote
Hey, I'm finding new and innovative ways to sabotage myself! Even if Charizard does win, the Guest Crew still won't get an Expert point!
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#129 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/9/2013 11:44:37 PM | message detail | quote
You cannot convince me that Frog’s first-round match wasn’t a massive disappointment.

Do you realize that if you set Tiny Tina = Handsome Jack, Frog is really close to Aeris - and therefore Shepard?

If you can't be convinced, you're just being dense!
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#130 | paulg235 | Posted 9/9/2013 11:53:40 PM | message detail | quote
Cab I take Samus/Red/Charizard should Charizard take the win here?
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#131 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 4:41:29 AM | message detail | quote
People actually picked Pokemon to lose a close match?

If you're going to pick Pokemon to lose, you better pick them to lose hard!

But yeah, this is going pretty much like I expected. That's why I picked Charizard. Couldn't see a way for Mega Man to win by a significant margin with Zero in the way.
---
http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#132 | transience | Posted 9/10/2013 5:25:05 AM | message detail | quote
aw man, so close!

Mega Man will win the day vote, just wait
---
xyzzy
#133 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 5:26:10 AM | message detail | quote
#134 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/10/2013 5:42:12 AM | message detail | quote
good effort by mega man but that 40% Pokemon vote is impenetrable
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#135 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/10/2013 6:05:27 AM | message detail | quote
AxemRedRanger posted...
You cannot convince me that Frog’s first-round match wasn’t a massive disappointment.

Do you realize that if you set Tiny Tina = Handsome Jack, Frog is really close to Aeris - and therefore Shepard?

If you can't be convinced, you're just being dense!


All that tells me is that Tiny Tina > Handsome Jack. Stop trying to set characters from the same series equal to one another; Handsome Jack lost to Viewtiful Joe, who is not a first-timer in these contests and who has been proven to be bad fodder.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#136 | transcience | Posted 9/10/2013 6:08:49 AM | message detail | quote
yeah according to this Mega Man with Zero is probably equal to Cloud

or Pokemon just has a 40% barrier

wonder what gives tomorrow
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#137 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/10/2013 6:18:43 AM | message detail | quote
transcience posted...
yeah according to this Mega Man with Zero is probably equal to Cloud

or Pokemon just has a 40% barrier

wonder what gives tomorrow


Neither! Mewtwo cracks 40%, but still loses. You seriously think Sephiroth will get 20%?
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#138 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/10/2013 11:24:10 AM | message detail | quote
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#139 | transcience | Posted 9/10/2013 12:15:18 PM | message detail | quote
so we've got

1 Metroid
1 FF7
1 League
1 Metal Gear
5 Pokemon

and no Zelda!
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#140 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 3:14:09 PM | message detail | quote
No 40% barrier when Draven brings in more votes on his own than these matches normally get.
---
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif
#141 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/10/2013 3:15:19 PM | message detail | quote
everyone gets 40% tomorrow

it's a 120% kind of day
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#142 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/10/2013 3:17:55 PM | message detail | quote
why stop there

140 for everybody

420 vote every day
---
~War~
#143 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 3:34:08 PM | message detail | quote
On the anniversary of 9/11, another tragedy looks to strike America.

Can the last American hero, Sephiroth, put a stop to it?
---
http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif
#144 | Death_Fire11 | Posted 9/10/2013 3:36:02 PM | message detail | quote
LeonhartFour posted...
On the anniversary of 9/11, another tragedy looks to strike America.

Can the last American hero, Sephiroth, put a stop to it?


Sephiroth would be a Japanese hero.
---
Official Lulu of the Duodecim: 012 Dissidia Board
#145 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2013 3:36:33 PM | message detail | quote
Sephiroth is all nationalities at once. He is the rightful heir to this Planet.
---
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png
#146 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 8:35:22 PM | message detail | quote
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#147 | transience | Posted 9/10/2013 9:48:52 PM | message detail | quote
1337gamerpr0 posted...
man some people really just want to pick against Pokemon to the very end


SORRY, WHAT WAS THAT
---
xyzzy
#148 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 10:05:13 PM | message detail | quote
Crew Predictions - 93/116

What Happened: Samus and Tifa double-teamed the block, and Red took advantage of a Square split

What will Happen: Samus continues to be the Queen of the Contests



Crew Prediction Challenge

KP - 98
Moltar - 95
Kleenex - 93
Tran - 93
Leon - 92
Guest - 90
Lopen - 83

Crew Expert Challenge

KP - 81
Tran - 77
Moltar - 74
Leon - 72
Kleenex - 68
Guest - 63
Lopen - 59


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets Samus, Luis gets L and Tifa, Moltar gets Red, KP gets Vivi, Moltar and KP get Squall

Moltar - 74
KP - 61
Leon - 59
Tran - 58
Lopen - 50
Kleenex - 49
Guest - 46 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (3), Nintendoboy, PaulG (5), Bane (4), Chris (2), lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (5), meche, nameplz, pjbasis, FF999 (2), betrayed, TRT, HM (2), tnote, Janus, Luster)
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#149 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 10:15:30 PM | message detail | quote
Semifinals: Match 118 – (3) Draven vs. (11) Mewtwo vs. (1) Sephiroth

Moltar’s Analysis

Draven
Round 1 - 40.47% vs. Jak and Chie
Round 2 - 66.52% vs. MMX and Ryu
Round 3 – 44.65% vs. Link and Shepard

Well that happened

Mewtwo
Round 1 - 81.80% vs. Zero (999) and Chester
Round 2 - 44.28% vs. Phoenix and Vincent
Round 3 – 41.82% vs. Sonic and Bowser

No point in being surprised by this anymore

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 57.37% vs. Midna and Little Mac
Round 2 - 52.04% vs. Morrigan and Spyro
Round 3 – 37.93% vs. Kirby and Big Boss

Seph not choking, now there's a surprise.

Interesting match. The natural weakest becomes the strongest with rallies, the natural second weakest becomes the second strongest with rallies, and the natural strongest becomes the weakest because no one will rally for him.

Anyway, Link threw facebook, wrestlers, and pretty much the entire Internet at LoL fans and they still won in what was virtually a 1v1 match. You can't convince me that Mewtwo and Seph come all that close, especially with them going at each other. I think Draven puts this away early and coasts until the end with his 40000 votes or whatever. A Mewtwo rally will be lucky to keep him above Seph if Draven is far enough ahead and Pokeralliers give up early.

Moltar’s Prediction: Draven: 45% - Mewtwo: 28% - Sephiroth: 27%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Not much to say here. If Draven’s rally holds up, he wins. If Link couldn’t beat that last round (in a 22.5 hour match), Mewtwo and Sephy won’t be able to either, especially considering neither one of these guys is going to get driven down to 11% like Shepard did. But if the LoL mods keep their word to delete all Draven rally topics (LOL), then I think Sephiroth is in a good position to take advantage of it. Despite Mewtwo beating Vincent, Sonic, and Bowser, he honestly hasn’t looked super impressive. He’s just taken advantage of favorable situations.

Well, Mewtwo could get a bandwagon/rally and beat Sephy if Draven falls off, but personally, I’m kind of rooting for Sephiroth to win the contest at this point. After all the completely off the wall results this contest has had, FFVII winning in the end would be so surreal. Even if Sephy wins here, I don’t like his odds against Snake/Samus, but I’d like to see it.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sephiroth

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Draven – 50.00%
Sephiroth – 27.00%
Mewtwo – 23.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

So everything seems to think this match is going to go Draven > Mewtwo > Sephiroth? Do people think Mewtwo has a shot? He doesn't, but whatever. Like, I dunno. Maybe the Draven ralliers don't show up because Link is dead and all our troubles are solves, but probably not because who gives a f*** GO SEPHIROTH

Kleenex's Prediction
Draven with 134.31%
Mewtwo with 64.16%
Sephiroth with 134.32%
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#150 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/10/2013 10:15:34 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

Unfortunately I don't have time today to do the writeup that this match deserves. Though really, is there anything to say? Pokemon is doing ridiculous, Draven's army is unparallelled and Sephiroth is historically the strongest character by far. It just depends on what the outside forces do.

I don't think the reddit folks bring it like they brought it against Link. These guys just aren't as polarizing (and nor are we, since we're not plotting to kill him like the nerds we are). So I'll go for the home run and put Draven in last because why not.

transience's prediction:

Mewtwo - 40%

Sephiroth - 34%
Draven - 26%



KP's Analysis

F*** it. I have a feeling that the Draven rally doesn't get nearly as much traction, Sephiroth 'impressed last round, and Pokefear crushed Sonic and Bowser. Let's do this.

Mewtwo - 35%
Sephiroth - 33%
Draven - 32%


Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

Literally two straight days of my awful analysis. Not that there’s much here to analyze. Mewtwo gets rallied. Draven gets rallied harder. Sephiroth doesn’t get rallied, so he ends up looking awful.

Draven 43%
Mewtwo 40%
Sephiroth 17%




Crew Consensus: rallyrallyrallyRALLYRALLYRALLYRALLYRALLY
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Post New Message

3983 characters remaining (includes signature)