Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7

#51 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 11:35:53 AM | message detail | quote
transcience posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Most of the crew supports Squirtle but they picked Cloud to win.


A rule of the crew is that even when they expect a result they dislike in a debated match, they will refuse to take it.

None of the crew took L-Block in the finals of 2007!


go look at the archives

anyway, Pokemon beating Cloud straight up is kind of distressing - and I had this upset for a while!


Did someone take it? I could have sworn it was all Link except hochi, who took Cloud. It might have been Block 1, Cloud 2, and Link the rest then. I know Cloud had more picks than Block.
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~War~
#52 | transcience | Posted 9/6/2013 11:40:20 AM | message detail | quote
I took the block
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#53 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 11:41:18 AM | message detail | quote
Then I stand corrected!

The Crew except The Great Old One took not the Block.
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~War~
#54 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/6/2013 12:17:02 PM | message detail | quote
the crew is sets in its ways

no one wanted to take OoT > FF7 in 2009 either!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#55 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 12:25:59 PM | message detail | quote
Literally no one picked Sephiroth two days ago!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#56 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:27:02 PM | message detail | quote
Crew curse on Sephiroth. Funny thing.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#57 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/6/2013 3:20:01 PM | message detail | quote | (edited)
Oh hey, e-mail still being unresponsive, so another early prediction from me!

Feel free to steal again, but you'll probably regret it!

Leonhart's Analysis

save_us.keyblade

save_us.asv

save_us.DARKNESS

Leonhart’s Vote: Sora

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Sora – 41.00%
Pikachu – 38.00%
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 21.00%
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#58 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:13:21 PM | message detail | quote
Division Final: Round 3 - Match 114 – (6) Pikachu vs. (2) Sora vs. (12) Pokemon Trainer Blue

Moltar’s Analysis

Pikachu
Round 1 - 52.93% vs. Lloyd and Big Daddy
Round 2 – 47.07% vs. Crono and Magus

Noble Nine can't handle Pokemon

Sora
Round 1 - 46.81% vs. Scorpion and Aya
Round 2 – 49.36% vs. Gilgamesh and Yoshimitsu

Sora looking fine so far

Blue
Round 1 - 48.16% vs. Fox and Wolf
Round 2 – 47.14% vs. Drake and Game and Watch

Good showing from Blue

It should be pretty obvious to tell by now, but I don't have a clue what to expect here. Pokemon is on fire, but now they're on the wrong end of a split in a match. Logically, Sora should win this, but logic left this contest about a month ago.

I've seen a bit of a division in the Pokemon fanbase over Pika and Blue. Some want to support Pikachu, others want to support Blue. If this split carries over in a large-scale, then Sora should advance. If Pikachu, or more likely Blue, gets sacrificed for the other, then Pokemon has a great chance of winning yet another match.

Since I have no idea who benefits more from this split (gut says Pikachu), I'll stick with Sora. You know the drill by now though, Pokemon will prove me wrong once again.

Moltar’s Prediction: Pikachu: 36% - Sora: 40% - Blue: 24%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well, normally I'd be waffling on the match and then offering Pikachu the rejuvenating blood of 100 virgins for his mercy or saying something about PokeFAQs, but given that I want PokeFAQs to win this one (c'mon Blue) I'm no longer obligated to do such things.

That being said, I think Sora wins this. Blue is one of the worst opponents Pikachu could draw-- perhaps the worst. Mostly because there's actually a distinct appeal to Blue that no other Pokemon character has in that there's more to the character than a design. So with that being said I think he's going to hold strong in the SFF situation, which means that Sora should be able to capitalize on the split when normally the sheer overwhelming force of PokeFAQs combined with a lopsided split would prevent him from doing so.

Lopen's prediction:
Sora - 39.45%
Pikachu - 36.08%
Blue - 24.47%



Kleenex’s Analysis

WELCOME TO RALLY BATTLE IX! DO YOU LIKE POKEMON? GREAT BECAUSE YOU'RE GETTING ALL THE POKEMON YOU CAN HANDLE! DUE TO A RECENT VOTING ACCIDENT WE'RE CURRENTLY OVERSTOCKED ON POKEMON AND WE'RE PASSING THE POKEMON ON TO YOU! A POKEMON IN THE BRACKET IS WORTH TWO IN THE SEMIFINALS! KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE POKEBALL! A RALLYING POKEMON GATHERS NO LOSS! ALL WORK AND NO POKEMON MAKES POKEMON POKEMON POKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOKEPOK

Kleenex's Analysis
Pikachu with 40.00%
Sora with 29.00%
Blue with 31.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#59 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:13:28 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

I'm finding myself a little bothered by the results of this match, moreso than I was Draven over Link or any of the other nonsensical results. On the one hand, it's really cool that Cloud is losing -- breaking up the status quo is great. But when it's being broken up by a random Pokemon, it just makes the site seem more homogenous instead of less. I was saying earlier in the contest that RBY beats FF7 -- does anyone doubt that now? Cloud was always the counter to Link, and he and Seph were the only characters who wouldn't get 60-40'd by him. Now he gets beat by a random Pokemon. No disrespect to Squirtle, I'm glad he's doing well, but like..

What's the top 10 characters in a contest? For years and years they were the noble nine and the second tier characters from the Zelda/Mario/FF series. Now, jokes aside, it's something like:

Link
Snake
Mario
Mega Man
Squirtle
Charizard
Cloud
Mewtwo
Samus
Sephiroth

Doesn't that seem kind of messed up? Again, I'm all for breaking the status quo, but it should be guys like Shepard and Elizabeth breaking up the contest rhythm. Oh well. I guess this is cool to see regardless of the lack of 'balance'.

Anyway, Pikachu beats Sora thanks to Same Person Factor. Blue and Sora are literally the same dude! Look at the pictures!

transience's prediction:

Pikachu with 45%

Sora with 39%
Blue with 16%*


KP's Analysis

I'd love for Blue to win this, but he seems screwed here. He should hold up fine, though.

As for Sora vs. Pika - this is Sora's match to lose, and I think he does. Sora looked like a chump in 2010, and he's probably worse this year. Kingdom Hearts is growing more and more irrelevant, and his performance on Gilgamesh seemed...iffy. Meanwhile, Pokemon has been tearing up the place. Pikachu looks close to Crono in a normal match. Even with the LFF Pikachu and Blue are going to have, I can't trust Sora, here.

Pikachu - 37%
Sora - 35%
Blue - 27%


Guest’s Analysis - betryedtangerin

Sora should win here as Pikachu and Blue should take away from each other with SFF, however I do think that Pikachu will keep it moderately close, because of well Pokémon. Which leaves Blue in a distant third.

Sora 45%
Pikachu 38%
Blue 17%



Crew Consensus: Sora is the slight favorite over Pika
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#60 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:17:33 PM | message detail | quote
Crew Predictions - 91/112

What Happened: Snake easily beat his compeition. Too bad the same can't be said for Kefka

What will Happen: Maybe Snake will be the one to save the Contest



Crew Prediction Challenge

KP - 96
Moltar - 94
Leon - 92
Kleenex - 91
Tran - 91
Guest - 87
Lopen - 81

Crew Expert Challenge

KP - 80
Tran - 76
Moltar - 73
Leon - 72
Kleenex - 67
Guest - 62
Lopen - 58


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets Snake, KP gets Glados, Luster gets Kefka

Moltar - 70
KP - 59
Tran - 57
Leon - 57
Lopen - 50
Kleenex - 47
Guest - 43 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (3), Nintendoboy, PaulG (4), Bane (4), Chris (2), lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (3), meche, nameplz, pjbasis, FF999 (2), betrayed, TRT, HM (2), tnote, Janus, Luster)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#61 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/6/2013 10:20:45 PM | message detail | quote
still calling Squirtle a random pokemon

the buttfuriousness is out of control
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Also since people will probably ask, we are indeed checking into the legitimacy of all incoming votes and so far, everything appears to be legit. - SBAllen
#62 | ZFS | Posted 9/6/2013 10:24:11 PM | message detail | quote
Think Sora wins this today. He stands out a bit more in the Pokefest, he might have some momentum from KH3 or something, and Pikachu and Blue are probably diluting the Pokemon vote. Pikachu's not really above Sora's level, anyway. You guys are reacting too hard to these matches!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#63 | hylianknight3 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:24:51 PM | message detail | quote
Yeah, I think you guys have got major buttgrievances!
#64 | TheRock1525 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:26:47 PM | message detail | quote
you let me down, crew

you let me so god damn far down
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TheRock ~ Slow dramatic zoom-pan. Doesn't phase the hooded man.
"You have issues." - MWC. Pot. Kettle.
#65 | Lopen | Posted 9/6/2013 10:35:54 PM | message detail | quote
A RALLYING POKEMON GATHERS NO LOSS!

+1
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#66 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/6/2013 11:57:50 PM | message detail | quote
there really are going to be 5 Pokemon characters in the final 9

unreal
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#67 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 4:24:35 AM | message detail | quote
I still can't believe it. When we made our brackets we had only 1 reach the Final 9 and that was Charizard. Now we have Mewtwo, Squirtle, Pikachu for sure and Red is a lock and Charizard is almost a lock.
So we had only 1 for sure and now he may be the only one that doesn't advance. Makes sense.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#68 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 4:38:52 AM | message detail | quote
Those scrappy underdogs

Is there no end to their scrappiness
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http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg
#69 | transience | Posted 9/7/2013 7:02:31 AM | message detail | quote
what happens if the final is mewtwo/squirtle/charizard
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xyzzy
#70 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/7/2013 7:53:26 AM | message detail | quote
well water beats fire so Charizard looses for sure
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#71 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/7/2013 8:24:55 AM | message detail | quote
Will strategy overcome the level disadvantage?!
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#72 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 8:36:22 PM | message detail | quote
Crew Predictions - 91/113

What Happened: Squirtle gets rallied over Cloud

What will Happen: Maybe Snake will be the one to stop Pokemon



Crew Prediction Challenge

KP - 96
Moltar - 94
Leon - 92
Kleenex - 91
Tran - 91
Guest - 88
Lopen - 82

Crew Expert Challenge

KP - 80
Tran - 76
Moltar - 73
Leon - 72
Kleenex - 67
Guest - 63
Lopen - 59


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon and Moltar get Cloud, PaulG gets Squirtle, Tran gets Leon

Moltar - 71
KP - 59
Tran - 58
Leon - 58
Lopen - 50
Kleenex - 47
Guest - 44 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (3), Nintendoboy, PaulG (5), Bane (4), Chris (2), lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (3), meche, nameplz, pjbasis, FF999 (2), betrayed, TRT, HM (2), tnote, Janus, Luster)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#73 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/7/2013 8:43:50 PM | message detail | quote
Prediction and Expert challenges have barely budged cause we keep getting this round wrong!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#74 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 8:44:19 PM | message detail | quote
#75 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/7/2013 8:44:20 PM | message detail | quote
yeah guys I'm never going to get to last place at this point
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#76 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 10:03:49 PM | message detail | quote
Division Final: Round 3 - Match 115 – (1) Samus Aran vs. (8) L-Block vs. (7) Tifa Lockheart

Moltar’s Analysis

Samus
Round 1 – 68.51% vs. Sandbag and Isaac C
Round 2 – 61.85% vs. Knuckles and Catherine

SMAUS SMASH

L-Block
Round 1 – 60.70% vs. Palutena and Teemo
Round 2 – 40.99% vs. Auron and Ezio

The block is getting fired up again

Tifa
Round 1 – 61.86% vs. Chun-Li and Cirno
Round 2 – 44.56% vs. Dragonborn and Yuna

Okay performance

I want Samus to win so this must be done.

Moltar’s Prediction: Samus: 37% - L-Block: 38% - Tifa: 25%



Lopen’s Analysis

I've heard some people calling for L-Block to win this. That'd be kinda retro and funny, but I don't think squeaking by Auron means you can suddenly jump up to Samus level. Maybe if it was an A Block Samus would obey his orders like a good girl...

... stretching too far?

Shut up. Samus wins, anyway.

Lopen's prediction:
Samus Aran - 37.67%
L-Block - 32.30%
Tifa - 30.03%



Leonhart’s Analysis

This one’s pretty simple. If L-Block doesn’t get a big rally, Samus wins. It was going to lose to Auron pretty easily before it got rallied last round, and Samus is a clear step above that. If L-Block gets rallied, it’s got a good shot because Tifa’s going to eat up her fair share of percentage, meaning the Block doesn’t need a huge percentage to win. So basically you’re asking me if I think L-Block is going to manage a decent rally on RallyFAQs.

Leonhart’s Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonhart’s Prediction:

L-Block – 37.00%
Samus Aran – 36.00%
Tifa Lockhart – 27.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

There's been a lot of nonsense going on this contest. A lot of people are expecting L-Block to get a big push here and upset Samus. For whatever reason, I'm not really seeing it. Samus has really killed it in her matches so far, and I don't think L has quite the oomph he (it?) used to. Sure, the block managed to take out Auron last round, but...I don't know. It just isn't something I see happening. I kinda hope I'm wrong because an UNLEASHED L might be the only thing that can stop the darkest timeline from happening.

Kleenex's Prediction
Samus with 39.00%
L-Block with 33.00%
Tifa with 28.00%



Transience’s Analysis

Man, I don't know. I know you're reading this for an insightful or entertaining analysis of Samus vs. Tifa vs. a block but I just don't have anything. It's basically this: L-Block should win this if it was a 12 hour match. Does it get enough votes in a 24 hour match? I was leaning towards no, but then I saw the match and pictures and... yep, L Block's got this. Samus and Tifa split votes hard enough that L-Block probably needs like 38%. It'll get that.

transience's prediction:

L-Block - 38%

Samus - 36%
Tifa - 26%



KP's Analysis

Making a writeup for a Block match seems pointless. Either he catches fire and wins, or he doesn't and doesn't. Might as well flip a coin.

I'll side with Samus because she seems a bit too strong for Block, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Block just runs away with it. Tifa is stronger competition than Ezio and L-Block still won that match despite Auron being able to score plenty of % for himself.

Samus - 36%
L-Block - 35%
Tifa - 29%



Crew Consensus: Tied
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#77 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/7/2013 10:11:06 PM | message detail | quote
ohhhh man
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#78 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/7/2013 10:15:59 PM | message detail | quote
EGWU

Hmmm, RallyFAQs, but Samus has looked too good.

Samus - 38.60%
L-Block - 33.60%
Tifa - 27.80%
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POKEFEAR
#79 | transience | Posted 9/7/2013 10:18:51 PM | message detail | quote
Samus is the only remaining noble nine member, let's see what she can do
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xyzzy
#80 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 9/7/2013 10:19:33 PM | message detail | quote
transience posted...
Samus is the only remaining noble nine member, let's see what she can do


Sephiroth
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New England Patriots: 0-0
#81 | Achromatic | Posted 9/7/2013 10:19:47 PM | message detail | quote
transience posted...
Samus is the only remaining noble nine member, let's see what she can do


Seph and mega?
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#82 | The Real Truth | Posted 9/7/2013 10:20:42 PM | message detail | quote
Poor Samus gonna split the vote between Tifa.
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Tornadoman78:
tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit
#83 | Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/7/2013 10:25:50 PM | message detail | quote
I'm the guest. Was a little caught up on stuff.

Like hell do I pick against Samus!

Samus 38%
L Block 31.5%
Tifa 30.5%
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"Eet's game time..."
#84 | transience | Posted 9/7/2013 10:29:00 PM | message detail | quote
Kirby (technicality) and Cube, respectively
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xyzzy
#85 | transience | Posted 9/7/2013 10:29:41 PM | message detail | quote
though we could just wait a couple days for Seph to find a way to lose to Draven and Mewtwo
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xyzzy
#86 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/7/2013 10:34:44 PM | message detail | quote
'Find a way to lose'? Draven is Draven and Mewtwo's performances have all been absurd. Sephiroth winning that match would be the real upset story of the contest.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#87 | transience | Posted 9/7/2013 10:36:19 PM | message detail | quote
yeah definitely. I'm just saying that it's technically an upset!
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xyzzy
#88 | ZFS | Posted 9/7/2013 10:39:37 PM | message detail | quote
Think Samus is going to rock it tonight, enough to not be worried about the Block.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#89 | Lopen | Posted 9/7/2013 10:40:26 PM | message detail | quote
Well if you want to get technical Sephiroth winning there is an upset too-- Link's the favorite!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#90 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 10:50:12 PM | message detail | quote
Technically Sephiroth winning this round was an upset! After all, none of us picked him!
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png
#91 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/8/2013 3:22:23 AM | message detail | quote
Sephiroth winning an upset... Also is this the first match that is a complete tie?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#92 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2013 4:45:14 AM | message detail | quote
#93 | transience | Posted 9/8/2013 6:37:27 AM | message detail | quote
man, this contest is impossible to get a hold of right now

pretty awesome
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xyzzy
#94 | transience | Posted 9/8/2013 6:37:53 AM | message detail | quote
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#95 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/8/2013 6:42:10 AM | message detail | quote
holy crap Tifa

L IS DEAD 2142
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#96 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/8/2013 6:44:20 AM | message detail | quote
man, I was seriously considering tifa > L here too. Oh well
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#97 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 8:44:13 PM | message detail | quote
Crew Predictions - 91/114

What Happened: Pikachu survives the split

What will Happen: Squirtle and Pikachu split against Snake



Crew Prediction Challenge

KP - 97
Moltar - 94
Leon - 92
Kleenex - 92
Tran - 92
Guest - 88
Lopen - 82

Crew Expert Challenge

KP - 81
Tran - 77
Moltar - 73
Leon - 72
Kleenex - 68
Guest - 63
Lopen - 59


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets Blue, Moltar gets Sora, Kleenex gets Pika

Moltar - 72
KP - 59
Leon - 59
Tran - 58
Lopen - 50
Kleenex - 48
Guest - 44 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (3), Nintendoboy, PaulG (5), Bane (4), Chris (2), lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (3), meche, nameplz, pjbasis, FF999 (2), betrayed, TRT, HM (2), tnote, Janus, Luster)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#98 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 8:45:48 PM | message detail | quote
Also guest sign-ups for the confirmed matches next round are now open

Draven/Mewtwo/Seph -

Snake/Squirtle/Pikachu -
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#99 | Bane_Of_Despair | Posted 9/8/2013 8:47:59 PM | message detail | quote
Snake/Squirtle/Pikachu- Bane
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
3DS FC- 5472-6201-0498
#100 | pjbasis | Posted 9/8/2013 8:49:24 PM | message detail | quote
Signing up for Samus/Squall/Charizard
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0

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