GameFAQs Contests

holy crap mewtwo
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

Probably because it wasn't actually a good explanation! I mean, granted, even if it was a good explanation b8 would've been crying but there really wasn't any substance there. It was a politician post.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

The attacks and stuff are unnecessary, but his hand-waving away of the downtime is pretty flimsy.
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i'll do rydia -Dante

Yeah, I'm stuck in a position where I think there are legitimate reasons to be unhappy about the decision and its rationale but the reaction almost makes me feel bad for expressing what concerns I have!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

The reaction is a bit overblown-- I mean I've constantly berated Bacon's decisions over the course of his tenure here and I was probably the most respectful guy in the topic that was still disagreeing with his decisions/speculations.

That being said I still wouldn't call it completely unjustified. To me it feels like he's approaching the whole thing like an argument more than actually seriously thinking about what the right thing to do is or what the truth is about how much cheating vs rallying there was. Like he's sharing things more to give evidence that he put up a token effort than to actually put our minds at ease. The selection of posts he's chosen to reply to in said topics also backs the idea up-- as he frequently blows his one or two replies in a topic on picking one of the many completely inane posts to take a shot at with a pointless quip rather than addressing one of the few posts in the topic that actually asks something that's worth asking.

Now if you really want to get tinfoil hat I almost think he didn't rerun the thing because he didn't want Link to win again. With all the subtle mockery of Link's unbeatable status over the past years... it would make some sense!

Just saying both sides come off as pretty childish to me! ... okay, I'll put the soap box away now.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

this match reminds me of Seph/Mega Man

huge, mindblowing match that gets no attention because of what happened the day before
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

Lopen posted...

Probably because it wasn't actually a good explanation! I mean, granted, even if it was a good explanation b8 would've been crying but there really wasn't any substance there. It was a politician post.

Yeah, I dont buy the "SBacon is manipulating everyone" theory, I just think he was outsmarted by whoever took down the site, and didn't want to admit it. It doesn't even have to be a DDoS, maybe someone found another way to take this place down?

Still, he could have at least acknowledged that the down time changed the outcome of the match and done something to fix it. Like extending the match.

seems to me like a coincidence

the site has server issues sometimes

sucks that it happened at an "important" time for you guys but I bet there are people out there that are just as upset that the site just happened to be down at the exact moment they wanted to look up final fantasy 14 info!
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

I don't even necessarily buy the DDoS theory. I don't think there's enough concrete evidence there that we can actually look into so I'm not overstepping my bounds. The vote stuffing allegations are more the thing I take issue with, because we actually can determine things and it's instead "oh well here are some random browser usage statistics" that honestly don't even frankly matter unless the stuffer was using something like Opera to stuff.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

AppIekidjosh posted...

seems to me like a coincidence

the site has server issues sometimes

sucks that it happened at an "important" time for you guys but I bet there are people out there that are just as upset that the site just happened to be down at the exact moment they wanted to look up final fantasy 14 info!

But the FF14 people are used to downtime, so I doubt it affected them any.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

Not_Wylvane posted...

AppIekidjosh posted...

seems to me like a coincidence

the site has server issues sometimes

sucks that it happened at an "important" time for you guys but I bet there are people out there that are just as upset that the site just happened to be down at the exact moment they wanted to look up final fantasy 14 info!

But the FF14 people are used to downtime, so I doubt it affected them any.

I laughed.

I give Allen the benefit of the doubt and I think others probably should too. he's telling what he thinks is the truth and I'm not knowledgeable enough or dickish enough to say otherwise. but I do think the poll should be rerun, if only because the match was so good and it clearly decides the winner of the contest.

but if Draven advances, the plot to kill him will remain fun until the end.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

I think he's saying what he believes to be the truth too. But I also believe he lacks the talent in statistics to actually meaningfully analyze things that aren't hit you in the face with a brick obvious like the Touhou stuffing. That's not to say I have a doctorate in the field or anything, but I probably have a better idea than him of things to look for (as I said, the information he presented as "evidence" really has me skeptical that he's looking for anything that actually matters) and am pretty sure if I had access to all the stuff he does I actually could find very decisive evidence of foul play there.

Well that and he's being needlessly rigid about rerunning the poll for whatever reason (because he wants Link to lose !!) but that's another thing entirely.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I do think there's something to Lopen's "he wanted Link to lose" theory. There's been subtle hints throughout the past two months that make it seem like that kind of was the ultimate goal here.

Just leave Link out if that's the point, I guess.
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i'll do rydia -Dante

I mean if you really want to go ultimate conspiracy theory here, there may have been no stuffing in the Guybrush and Touhou matches and he just removed votes there to reassure people that stuffing had now been "taken care of" so he could no-sell the nonsense in Draven matches which was the plan all along !!

follow the money
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i'll do rydia -Dante

There was probably no DDoS or stuffed votes last round. All the trends seemed to coincide with big rallies.

Poll should've been re-ran or extended, though.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

There was nothing obvious about Guybrush stuffing, nobody thought he was stuffing. To remove votes there and such a small amount set a really pedantic standard for future matches which I'd say he really regrets now.

Randomly removing Guybrush votes may have been the most bizarre thing I've seen in this entire contest, all things considered.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

That's the point! We're supposed to think "well gee, if he can find people randomly stuffing votes for Guybrush he can catch anyone!"

OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE
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i'll do rydia -Dante

Eh, Draven's random big push after the downtime when Link was cutting for a few hours didn't really coincide with a rally-- in fact I think his rally topic was literally off the map at that point (as in it was deleted and they hadn't yet made a new one). More minor note I feel Link's 400 vote spike was too large considering the source but yeah that I may concede. The big issue (and the same issue that existed in all matches but Jak/Chie) is that proportion of the rallied votes that went to Draven was much too high as the number of rallied votes went down.

It was definitely a hell of a lot less suspicious than r2, mind you, but I'm fairly positive there was foul play there.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Wow those pics are amazing.

+5 Kirby -2.5 other two Moltar, if you could
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Kirby- The Next Mewtwo?

Find out in an hour when he's been officially Crew-Cursed!
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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show!

Yup, Draven went from mid-30s against Link before, during, and immediately after the downtime to over 60%- in fact he got his biggest hourly gain of the entire day during the afternoon. Then he went back down to high 30s again. He had a 39% hour immediately after a 59% hour. Part of that is Link, but there's been nothing like it ever. And no visible rallying that can explain it.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Is there no analysis for Seph/Kirby/BB or am I just early
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Hentai? I didn't ask for hentai. I asked for anime, you moron.
*clicks and downloads* - Hayato118

Division Final: Round 3 - Match 111 – (1) Sephiroth vs. (5) Big Boss vs. (4) Kirby

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth
Round 1 - 57.37% vs. Midna and Little Mac
Round 2 - 52.04% vs. Morrigan and Spyro

Nope, still not impressed

Big Boss
Round 1 - 74.89% vs. Viridian and Peacock
Round 2 - 43.63% vs. Luigi and Ness

BB sneaks by a weakened Luigi

Kirby
Round 1 - 46.44% vs. Terra and Peach
Round 2 - 51.28% vs. Elizabeth and Crash

Kirby doesn't look all that great here.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3305 believe

But really, FF7 has looked bad across the board. Now that Seph is up against actual competition, he's got a chance to show if he's still got it. I don't think he will though and end up a lot closer to BB and Kirby than he should.

A 24 hour match does help him out though, so even if things start bad for him, he could recover in the second half. Maybe not though, since FF7 hasn't even risen to heaven much outside of the first hour. It really does seem like its time in the sun has passed.

Plus, we're at that stage were Noble Niners are falling left and right and upsetfaqs is in full swing. BB has looked the most impressive of the three, but I just don't like his chances with Seph here, especially since we've seen FF and MGS overlap in the past.

Kirby, on the other hand, really, really stands out here. It seems like being the most independent character is what wins matches in threeways. Plus BB is going to soak up a ton of percent, so all Kirby really needs is in the mid-to-high 30s and Nintendo fans might be able to manage that.

...You know what, I'll take it. I don't go for enough wacky upsets anyway.


Moltar’s Prediction: Sephiroth: 35% - Big Boss: 29% - Kirby: 36%



Lopen’s Analysis

The dumb thing is that given how this contest has gone I'm pretty sure Kirby is actually the favorite here.

And he should be. Seph has looked adequate at best, and Kirby sticks out like a sore thumb. There's also that FFVII/MGS overlap that people deny exists but we've totally seen some evidence of.

As for how the match goes... Sephiroth... will start off... battered... limp... but slowly... he will begin to rise... he will put up a stiffer and stiffer front as the match goes on... as his bar slowly... tenderly.. grows ere-- wait we don't even have freakin bars anymore. Goddammit. No wonder Seph is so freakin weak now.

Lopen's prediction:
Kirby - 41.81%
Sephiroth - 31.60%
Big Boss - 26.59%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I don’t even know how to properly analyze these things anymore. Sephiroth should win because he’s Sephiroth, but FFVII has looked vulnerable all contest. Big Boss and Kirby could both take advantage of it, which could also work in Sephy’s advantage because neither character is going to roll over and die so the other can get a huge percentage. No disproportionate overlap there to help them. But again, who knows. Time to pick random chaos results!

Leonhart’s Vote: Big Boss

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Big Boss – 35.00%
Kirby – 33.00%
Sephiroth – 32.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Okay, have you seen these match pictures? Kirby sticks out like a slightly tender thumb in pretty much every single one. With all the nonsense going on in this contest, anyone could probably win this one but seriously LOOK AT THE PICTURES.

Kleenex's Prediction
Sephiroth with 31.00%
Big Boss with 32.00%
Kirby with 37.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Transience’s Analysis

Before the contest started, I made a goal for myself of not reading the stats topic unless something exciting or unusual was going on. I had two reasons: one, people make literally thousands of posts a day now and it's mostly spam that isn't worth reading, and two, I wanted to have an outsider's perspective when writing up this contest. I generally have no idea what the consensus is now unless it's a really big match, which is why I make some pretty outlandish picks or totally miss that there's two Square characters in a match sometimes.

I bring this up after like 100 matches because I have no idea what people are expecting here. The second Big Boss advanced and I saw FF7 struggling across the board, I started salivating. Is there a more standout matchup than Kirby/Big Boss/Sephiroth? There's sticking out like a sore thumb and then there's being a bright pink happy blob with two serious looking serious guys in dark clothing all the time. MGS and FF7 overlap pretty hard and Kirby always impresses. The pictures just went up a few minutes ago and I think people kind of caught on to what I've been thinking for weeks. Or maybe they've been talking about it all month in the stats topic. I have no idea.

Anyway, I'm running with the upset here. I'd feel a hell of a lot better about a 24 hour match than a 12 hour one, but I know that I'm backing Kirby. Sephiroth always finds a way to go down early and a Pokemon just beat a noble nine character after Draven just beat Link. Why the hell not?

transience's prediction:

Kirby with 40%
Sephiroth with 36%
Big Boss with 24%



KP's Analysis

There's more matches left in this thing? Wasn't the final yesterday?

Kirby - 35%
Sephiroth - 33%
Big Boss - 32%



Guest’s Analysis - Janus

Going to keep this brief: Kirby has an amazing shot here. He's going to stand out in a couple big ways - he's the only Nintendo character, he's the only cute character (no ~badass deboost~), and he can't not look amazing in the pics (they aren't up at this time). I think it's also been demonstrated that FFVII and MGS overlap? That sounds good anyway. Not to mention, Sephiroth has looked pretty mediocre - nearly doubling Morrigan and 70% on Spyro can't be construed as good, and 68% on both Crash and Elizabeth isn't a lot worse. Not to mention, Kirby has a good history of not folding to anyone ever, as I'm sure Sonic could tell you if he wasn't getting pasted by Mewtwo right now.

most importantly though he'll get votes as a Ditto proxy hail PokeFAQs

Janus' prediction:
Kirby: 39%
Sephiroth: 37%
Big Boss: 24%



Crew Consensus: Kirby pulls off the upset
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Not a single person pulling for Sephiroth. Amazing.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

oh god kirby is the de facto favourite despite losing to big boss and sephiroth being a top 5 character on the site

let's go
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xyzzy

Crew curse for...Sephiroth? Hmm.
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Nominate Spring Breeze Dancin' from Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon for Character Battle IX!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJrnlFW4IMc

:o there it is

thank you person who has a similar username to Master Moltar in the animu topic
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Hentai? I didn't ask for hentai. I asked for anime, you moron.
*clicks and downloads* - Hayato118

Crew curse in effect

Don't think you can call it an upset when damn near everyone is calling that direction!
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Also since people will probably ask, we are indeed checking into the legitimacy of all incoming votes and so far, everything appears to be legit. - SBAllen

snoocete posted...

:o there it is

thank you person who has a similar username to Master Moltar in the animu topic

sounds like a pretty great person
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

ahahahaha we've all gone insane
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."

Yessss Lopenfiction returns

Truly this is the greatest contest
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http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

Leonhart kinda averts the crew curse?
inb4 Sephiroth wins

I like how I'm the only one who didn't call Kirby an upset when picking him!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Sephiroth will take this
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||Our the Yoshi||
||The One True Character||

damn you pictures changing my expert
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.

CURSEEEE
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Nobody in the Crew picked Sephiroth to win?

lolcrew
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!

lolsephiroth
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!

Lopen posted...

I think he's saying what he believes to be the truth too. But I also believe he lacks the talent in statistics to actually meaningfully analyze things that aren't hit you in the face with a brick obvious like the Touhou stuffing. That's not to say I have a doctorate in the field or anything, but I probably have a better idea than him of things to look for (as I said, the information he presented as "evidence" really has me skeptical that he's looking for anything that actually matters) and am pretty sure if I had access to all the stuff he does I actually could find very decisive evidence of foul play there.

Well that and he's being needlessly rigid about rerunning the poll for whatever reason (because he wants Link to lose !!) but that's another thing entirely.

Gonna make it all the more hilarious when we go back to 1v1s next year and Touhou gets a super-scrub to beat up on!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.

If there is a crew curse because of Sephiroth that would be hilarious.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

kirby es dum
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http://www.yourgamercards.net/trophy/a/Micer101.png

This is the best Crew we've ever had

Nobody picking Sephiroth to win a match against two near elites
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http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif

Sephiroth doing 'alright' but I think Kirby's got this.

lol big boss
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i'll do rydia -Dante

45% on a Noble Niner

What a joke
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif

a joke indeed
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i'll do rydia -Dante

Big Boss you suck, only 45% on the 2nd strongest Square character. Snake would totally score 60% on this momma's boy here.
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The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die.

this match probably comes down to if kids are back in school yet

if yes, Seph wins
if no, Kirby's got a shot
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

here lies link
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add the c and back away
iphonesience