Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

#401 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 9/2/2013 5:47:10 AM | message detail
Leonhart4 your Link/Draven/Shepard analysis was beautiful, relating it to Persona 4.

This match is really the last hope to stopping Draven. Come on Link!
---
2011 Rivalry Rumble Guru Champion
4) Yuri Lowell to win the 2013 contest =) First victims: 15)Ryu and 24) Face McShooty
#402 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/2/2013 5:47:33 AM | message detail
oh wow, so vivi > crono right?
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#403 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 5:52:47 AM | message detail
Okay someone said that based on bonus poll Mario beats Crono with around 53-47.Is that true?Because if it is that means that Mario loses 1vs1 from both Cloud and Snake.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#404 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/2/2013 6:27:10 AM | message detail
wait would mario losing to those guys surprise you? that's been the way the site falls since, like, 2003 or 2004 or something
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#405 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 6:44:36 AM | message detail
I always thought that Mario would be the 2nd strongest character.I mean it is Mario!I find it hard to believe.Even Sephiroth could beat him like that!
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#406 | transience | Posted 9/2/2013 7:10:47 AM | message detail
HM with his usual dose of believe over logic
---
xyzzy
#407 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 7:12:46 AM | message detail
transience posted...
HM with his usual dose of believe over logic

did you see that link cut.

the tidal wave is coming
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#408 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 7:22:08 AM | message detail
man, link got buried way worse overnight than I thought

how silly
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#409 | transcience | Posted 9/2/2013 7:23:28 AM | message detail
Link's doing pretty good compared to how MMX and Ryu did. I'm impressed.
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#410 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 7:23:59 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm legitimately impressed with Link here.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#411 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 7:27:01 AM | message detail | (edited)
well, draven also isn't getting nearly as many votes as last round

whether that's because people are defecting to Link or just not showing up I dunno
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#412 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 7:31:56 AM | message detail | (edited)
Link's doing so well because Draven's pulling in a lot less votes. Makes me think Bacon patched some vote stuffing loopholes or vote stuffing is being reined in because it was seen as excessive or something. Draven had ~18k more votes at this point vs Ryu and MMX (and the poll as a whole had around 14k more votes)
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#413 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 7:29:29 AM | message detail
And yeah that's not really Link taking the votes.

To put it in perspective MMX + Ryu as a unit had about 21k votes for a combined percentage of 31%
Link has 20k votes for 38%.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#414 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 7:31:09 AM | message detail
The rally doesn't seem to be pulling in as many votes this time around. Draven's last match pulled in about 57000 votes from outside GameFAQs, while this match will probably end up pulling in about 35000 votes from outside GameFAQs during the first 12 hours.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#415 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 7:31:18 AM | message detail
Yeah I didn't remember the actual vote totals from Ryu and X I just remembered that draven got 56k in 12 hours last time

too much of a pain to look up the factz on my phone
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#416 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 9:31:45 AM | message detail
So the guest saves the crew from crewcurse?Nice.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#417 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 9:39:27 AM | message detail
There's still a long way to go but man, if he can keep this up the rest of the day.
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#418 | transcience | Posted 9/2/2013 9:47:17 AM | message detail
man, Link could probably do this if the outside rally wasn't guaranteed
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#419 | Achromatic | Posted 9/2/2013 1:32:52 PM | message detail
Heroic Mario more like genius.
---
And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#420 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/2/2013 1:34:59 PM | message detail
Looks like Lopen's prediction of TEN THOUSAND VOTE SWING was about 7 years too soon.
---
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg
#421 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:35:30 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Looks like Lopen's prediction of TEN THOUSAND VOTE SWING was about 7 years too soon.

he was ahead of his time
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#422 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 1:46:53 PM | message detail
well it was a good shot

was kind of checked out here regardless of the outcome so I guess it doesn't really matter!
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#423 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 3:25:19 PM | message detail
Man how I want to see the post game analysis for this contest! I hope UltimaterializerX does it!
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#424 | ZFS | Posted 9/2/2013 3:25:23 PM | message detail
transience posted...
HM with his usual dose of believe over logic


I found it pretty logical! Who accounts for the site going down for 2 hours during the day and coming back with Draven stronger than ever? I think most of what I said was pretty accurate!
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#425 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 9/2/2013 4:42:12 PM | message detail
100k votals soon

if the votals stayed like this I wouldn't really care about the results of the contest
---
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/4565/mgrok.png
#426 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 4:43:42 PM | message detail
What you said only made any sense whatsoever because Draven's vote stuffer was way more subtle early this time.

You put r2 Draven here and Link is buried by like 20k votes when the night vote ends.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#427 | transience | Posted 9/2/2013 4:44:01 PM | message detail
even without the site going down, they would have manufactured more votes from somewhere. Link would have to murder Draven for this to have resulted in a Link win.
---
xyzzy
#428 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 9/2/2013 6:31:02 PM | message detail
#429 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/2/2013 7:21:11 PM | message detail
can someone explain this stuff about the downtime, response, etc. to someone that was at work all day?
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#430 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/2/2013 7:28:39 PM | message detail
oh I saw the sballen topic

man talk about an ess word storm
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#431 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 7:29:14 PM | message detail
There was ~75 minutes of downtime during Link's best period after he had sliced off like 3000 votes of Draven's lead. Immediately following the site coming back up, Draven started completely reversing the trends and added another 2000 votes to his lead. Some people suspected that it was due to a DDoS attack on the site, followed by undetected vote stuffing. Allen said that it probably wasn't a DDoS attack and there was nothing fishy was going on. People then proceeded to fly off the handle.

I don't buy nothing fishy going on, personally, but the whole thing is pretty stupid from every angle. This contest kinda sucks.
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#432 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 7:29:33 PM | message detail
WELL FINE THEN GO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#433 | ZFS | Posted 9/2/2013 7:30:06 PM | message detail
Kleenex has it about right.
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#434 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/2/2013 7:38:35 PM | message detail
it looks a lot closer than I would have thought it would be, so good for Link
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#435 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/2/2013 9:08:58 PM | message detail
Division Final: Round 2 - Match 110 – (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (11) Mewtwo vs. (7) Bowser

Moltar’s Analysis

Sonic
Round 1 - 66.30% vs. Fei and Dan
Round 2 - 50.02% vs. Barret and Dracula

Sonic does alright

Mewtwo
Round 1 - 81.80% vs. Zero (999) and Chester
Round 2 - 44.28% vs. Phoenix and Vincent

Pokemon continues the trend of looking good

Bowser
Round 1 - 60.55% vs. Meta Knight and Archer
Round 2 - 41.50% vs. Sub-Zero and The Boss

Bowser does okay against decent competition

So Vincent was supposed to take advantage of Sonic and Bowser overlap to stand out and win here "whoops".

Sonic should be safe here, as he has shown that he is clearly above Luigi and Kirby and other Nintendo characters on Bowser's level. Bowser and Mewtwo have also faced off before in a four-way match, and Bowser won that with around 53%. If results from 6-7 years ago hold up today, we should end up with Sonic > Bowser > Mewtwo.

Pokemon is stronger now, so Mewtwo could put up a good fight for second. I think Bowser will be safe though seeing as how it took a super powered Charizard to beat Bowser in 2010, and Mewtwo shouldn't be at that level.

Moltar’s Prediction: Sonic: 40% - Mewtwo: 29% - Bowser: 31%



Lopen’s Analysis

I was all ready to do my "argue for Sonic->but on the other hand, PokeFAQs" schtick again, but then two things happened.

1. Charizard showed big signs of weakness vs Zelda. Maybe PokeFAQs isn't all that.
2. Link's match was legitimately rallied (not just "rallied") to an extent that I think some of the people will actually stick around.

I think both of these factors help Sonic out, and so he should win pretty easily. Mewtwo still overperforms, though, and I'll be taking him for the upset as I think Sonic will have greater overlap with Bowser if nothing else.

Lopen's prediction:
Sonic the Hedgehog - 39.30%
Mewtwo - 31.35%
Bowser - 29.35%


Leonhart’s Analysis

I still think Sonic’s got this. I’ve seen people say Bowser hurts Sonic worse than he hurts Mewtwo and Pokemon will win the day again. But after seeing Missingno flop against Squall and Charizard barely survive Zelda with DK in the poll, I don’t really buy that here. Despite what last round’s result would suggest, I think the natural gap between Sonic and Mewtwo is pretty big, and Bowser being there isn’t really beneficial for Mewtwo. Sonic could still lose because this contest is weird, but I’m still taking him.

As an aside, it’s weird how every contest ends with me rooting for Sonic because B8 constantly doubts the guy.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sonic the Hedgehog

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Sonic the Hedgehog – 39.00%
Bowser – 33.00%
Mewtwo – 28.00%
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#436 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/2/2013 9:09:05 PM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

I need to figure out what to talk about in these things for the next two weeks because I don't much feel like talking about contest. There's not a ton going on in video games at the moment. Brothers comes out on PSN and Steam tomorrow. That's a pretty good game so you should all probably check that out. Didn't see a whole lot come out of PAX this weekend. I guess we're getting Bravely Default: FOR THE SEQUEL version next year. I haven't been following that too closely, so I don't know what that adds to the game. Really I'm just excited to get the game at all. Thinking about maybe picking up GTAV in a couple weeks, but I'm still undecided there. Not sure what I'll play in the meantime. Originally I had planned to try for all the achievements in Saints Row 4, but some of those ended up being a little too grindy for me to find enjoyable. Wish new consoles were out already, but it's coming soon enough.

Kleenex's Prediction
Sonic with 39.00%
Mewtwo with 32.00%
Bowser with 29.00%



Transience’s Analysis

What a crazy match. A lot of people will see it as the day the contests went south, but I thought it was the most entertaining match in several years. I guess it helps that I see both sides as the enemy.

Anyway, Sonic cruises here. Bowser should get second place, right? He's definitely stronger than Mewtwo, always has been. But screw that, I'm going the other way here. I've been pretty unimpressed by every Bowser result, I think Sonic overlaps with him more, and Mewtwo had about an equal showing last round. What's better, 59% on The Boss/Sub or 60% on Phoenix Wright? There's all that weird Vincent stuff to process as well, but Mewtwo didn't seem far out and Pokemon always seems to do well in matches like this. I'll back the stupid movie character over the icon. Why not? Draven is about to win a contest match.

transience's prediction:

Sonic with 43%

Mewtwo with 29%
Bowser with 28%



KP's Analysis

I'm sorry, but if you expect me to devote one iota of attention to this when Link/Draven is going on, you are sadly mistaken.

Sonic - More than Bowser%
Bowser - More than Mewtwo%
Mewtwo - Worst %



Guest’s Analysis - tnote

Still reeling from the past 18+ hours. What swings, what drama, what controversy. If Link cannot sustain the current (typed at 7:45 eastern time) rally, I will be very upset at the 90 minutes of downtown during his best vote gathering period not having any ramifications.

For this match, while I am fully supporting PokeFEAR, I just think Sonic is in a good position here. In fact, I will go out on a limb and say that Bowser is used as a Mario proxy against Sonic and overperforms enough to leave Mewtwo in last.

Sonic - 37.27%
Bowser - 32.27%
Mewtwo - 30.46%



Crew Consensus: Sega > Nintendo
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#437 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/2/2013 10:38:14 PM | message detail
Activate Crew Curse
---
POKEFEAR
#438 | transcience | Posted 9/2/2013 11:06:00 PM | message detail
almost went with mewtwo for first in the expert. damn!
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
#439 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:34:09 AM | message detail
Crew is there an explanation why Mewtwo is dominating?There are 2 Nintendo characters there and 1 of them is beating a N9.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#440 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:39:08 AM | message detail
Sonic is basically a Nintendo character these days.
---
"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
#441 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2013 5:11:14 AM | message detail
what the heck

Crew sided with Sonic in a sweep?

darn it
---
http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg
#442 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 5:21:36 AM | message detail
CURSEEEEE
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#443 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 6:47:38 AM | message detail
In all seriousness though this match makes no sense at all. I was strongly humoring a Mewtwo win and only bailed on it because of Charizard and MissingNo sucking, but... by this much? Mario/Sonic overlap is this significant? Other?

I mean if there's nothing odd going on this result suggests that Phoenix Wright could give Sonic a run this year... which... I'm not sure whether that means I should immediately discard the idea that nothing odd is going on or that I should be super disappointed Phoenix didn't draw Sonic.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#444 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/3/2013 6:53:30 AM | message detail
Is it really a surprise that Mario and Sonic have this much overlap? I mean...it's Sonic and Mario.

I mean, it's still absurd because of a ton of reasons but...way to go Mewtwo.
---
~War~
#445 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/3/2013 6:58:15 AM | message detail
I mean, this is stupid is arguably every way.

Mewtwo is looking great because holy crap Mewtwo.

Yet Sonic isn't looking bad, because holy crap Mewtwo/Vincent is looking kinda legit.

Even Bowser is looking good because I could see the argument that Pokemon fans would lean more towards Bowser than Sonic, which opens up a whole new can of worms.
---
~War~
#446 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 6:59:19 AM | message detail
I expected overlap and said as much in the write-up, but I just didn't expect it to matter so much, especially considering the third wheel is Mewtwo who shouldn't exactly be completely independent from the overlap himself.

Just a weird result.

Hypothetical question for everyone: If this match is Sonic/Phoenix Wright/Bowser is Phoenix Wright in the lead right now? Cause STATZ (combined with PW being at least as independent as Mewtwo) suggest he would be!
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#447 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 7:00:04 AM | message detail
Yeah, but how much overlap are you giving Sonic/Bowser?

Because unless you think Bowser splits to Sonic 67.61% or better, Mewtwo is beating Sonic 1v1 here!
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#448 | snoocete | Posted 9/3/2013 7:00:08 AM | message detail
Master Moltar posted...
Lopen’s Analysis

I was all ready to do my "argue for Sonic->but on the other hand, PokeFAQs" schtick again, but then two things happened.


You expert! You had one job to do!
---
Hentai? I didn't ask for hentai. I asked for anime, you moron.
*clicks and downloads* - Hayato118
#449 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 7:04:42 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'm taking Sonic in that match. I'm not even thinking about it, honestly!

Although, as a counter-point. that vincent pic. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume Phoenix looks much worse if Vincent you know... shows up.

Edit: Actually, maybe it is. Relative to Mewtwo at least.

this match
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#450 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 9/3/2013 7:15:04 AM | message detail
lmao I read Sballen's sticky and think "Ah that's a nice reasonable explanation that goes beyond the call of duty for him, and I'm glad he settled things"

then I scroll down and see "You're a worthless garbage admin" and other personal attacks

god bless board 8
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!