GameFAQs Contests

so uh Aeris is dying here
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

spoilers
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i'll do rydia -Dante

Shepard is just stabbing her from above
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

she's not dead yet!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

epic comeback

Aeris must be gutted after this one
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

oh damn Aeris came back to life
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

thanks guest!
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i'll do rydia -Dante

Aeris is drowning in the afterschool vote
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

ME has the worst board vote confirmed
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

I think we can call this one

sorry Koolaid, your standard of laughing at us and posting nothing else ever will not hold up today!
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xyzzy

Somehow I think I just wasted 20 minutes for naught writing that up but if anyone wants to experience legitimate(?) analysis of rallying and vote stuffing from the great Lopen today will be the day to do it. That's sadly probably going to be my longest analysis of the contest.

I remember the good old days where we could write walls about the most inane things. Well, not so often me but you know, it'd happen from time to time.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Division 1: Round 2 - Match 84 – (3) Draven vs. (15) Ryu vs. (7) Mega Man X

Moltar’s Analysis

Draven
Round 1 - 40.47% vs. Jak and Chie

Rally thousands of votes to barely beat Jak and Chie, sounds legit

Ryu
Round 1 - 56.19% vs. Yuri and Face

Decent showing from Ryu

Mega Man X
Round 1 - 65.22% vs. Jigglypuff and Welkin

Good performance by X

So apparently rallies work when the opponents are weak and don't work when the opponents are strong, who knew?

After Draven rallied enough votes to push him from 20% to 40% on fodder, people got worried that he could rally through the entire contest. However, as the contest progressed, no other rally was as successful and most of them failed. Ryu and X are both strong enough to survive another Draven rally, especially since the voters aren't going to easily vote to classic icons like Ryu and X over him. Plus, Draven's natural strength would have these guys tripling him, so that is a LOT to make up.

X is stronger than Ryu, and I believe their R1 matches support that. Ryu is strong enough to break 40% on lower Noble Nine characters, so 45% on X here would be an expected showing from him.

Moltar’s Prediction: Draven: 18% - Ryu: 39% - Mega Man X: 43%



Lopen’s Analysis

Lots of arbitrary math guesstimation and conspiracy theories ahead. Feel free to skip to the conclusion, cause who wants to read this WALL?

There was some rallying last round no doubt, but I firmly believe that Draven was stuffed to get most of that win. Draven only got 31% in the US yet finished with 41% overall-- night match or not that's an enormous red flag. Reddit has a large European userbase, but it's still primarily a US based site. The numbers just don't add up there.

Now, I'm not using this to actually discredit Draven's chances. Quite the contrary. The only reason Draven has a chance is because of that-- the stuffer is clearly too smart for Bacon's mundane detection methods, so I wouldn't pray for that. Vote intake being relatively low + a close to even split on Ryu/MMX means that Draven can just strongarm his way through the poll.

Consider the likely result. Before the "rally" happened Draven was at about 30% on Jak. Consider that Ryu or MMX would probably double-triple Jak, and Draven's going to be getting a very low percentage at base here. I'm going to guess he's going to be pentupled-sextupled by both. That says without any fishy business, the poll result is going to be something like 46/46/8, with wiggling on Ryu/MMX depending on where you think they land (I'm thinking 48-44 MMX right now). With vote totals of around 30k expected for night matches at this point in the game, that means Draven is going to need about 10k extra votes to even be considered.

The question now becomes the following: What proportion of Draven's votes were rallied and what proportion were stuffed. I think given Draven's percentage before the rally started, 5000 votes with a 28000 vote total would give close to Draven's legitimate strength. Now you simply add votes to Draven + the field (I'll say ~90% went to Draven with those weak opponents) until Draven's percentage reaches about what he got in the US. He reaches it at about 6000 rallied votes, giving some wiggle room for a little bit of the US votes being cheated too.

So it's safe to assume that the remainder of those votes were stuffed. 5-6k of them. Given that the rally didn't start for a while, it's safe to assume that there's a bit more potential here. I'll give the benefit of a doubt and assume the limit is around 7-8k.

So basically... long story short... I'm not thinking Draven has quite the energy to do it here, but depending on how much the stuffer held back there's an outside shot. Draven will probably get around 10.5k + whatever rallying he can get. I think rallying probably goes more like 50% Draven 50% the field with this competition, however.

So the question is, who wins between MMX and Ryu. Strangely, I think Ryu has it. Assuming about 6-8k legitimate Draven votes being rallied, I think Ryu gets more of the not Draven votes out of the three. I'd expect the split to be about 50-35-15 Draven/Ryu/MMX given the stronger ties to competitive gaming Ryu has and that he's frankly the more iconic character. 20% of 6k votes means Ryu is going to swing 1200-1600 votes on MMX from the rallies. That should be enough to win what would be a fairly close match normally.

Lopen's prediction:
Ryu - 34.78%
MMX - 33.91%
Draven - 31.31%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Draven: Voted Most Charismatic

Ryu: Voted Most Dedicated

Mega Man X: Voted Best Use of the Letter X

I’ve got Ryu in my bracket here, but comparing his first round performance to MMX’s doesn’t make me feel good about it. While I believe Yuri probably wasn’t as weak as he looked in 2010, he’d still have to be noticeably stronger than Jigglypuff for Ryu to win this. I guess it’s possible since Jiggly sucks, but again, I don’t feel good about it. I still think MMX is overrated and isn’t on the same tier of strength as Mega Man Classic, but there’s enough space between that tier and where Ryu is for X to win.

Of course, everyone’s wondering what Draven’s going to do for an encore here. He’s going to be starting from a much lower base percentage than he was last time, but the fact that there isn’t going to be one dominant character getting a lion’s share of the percentage gives Draven a puncher’s chance, assuming the rallying is legit. Then again, it’s possible the rallying will backfire when the voters see two classic characters from their childhood going at it, and who’s the most likely to benefit from that? Are you ready for a…

BOLTALIC PREDICTION: Ryu wins because of the Draven rally. That’s right. The original Street Fighter beats the Mega Man clone because of the third character’s rallying. All these kids who grew up using the Hadouken and Shoryuken in MMX games will REMEMBER THEIR ROOTS and show their support for the original!

Leonhart’s Vote: Ryu

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Ryu – 39.00%
Mega Man X – 38.50%
Draven – 22.50%



Kleenex’s Analysis

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5227.jpg

Kleenex's Prediction
Draven with 26.00%
Ryu with 39.00%
X with 35.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Transience’s Analysis

Nasty match tonight. Draven is the biggest wildcard left in the contest. If he gets a push like he got last time then he could blow the whole contest away -- or if he's anything like Teemo, he gets assassinated by these two heavyweights. Who the hell knows. I'm not going to predict it but I'm also not going to be surprised.

Mega Man is higher on the Capcom food chain and should theoretically beat Ryu down -- but it's also Mega Man X which always feels like a bad attempt at getting another strong character into our contest. Instead we have two Mega Men and anyone who actually follows the contest kinda wonders what the difference is. Mega Man > Ryu > MMX is a possibility given that divide, but probably not very likely. I could see Mega Man X/Ryu being a lot like Mega Man/Yoshi where the icon just blows away the second-tier Capcom icon. I'll bank on that and just pretend that weird Draven fans don't exist. With this being a night match and with Reddit being as large as it is currently, anything is possible here. I think that Draven r1 match pulled in like 10000 more votes than any other night match despite it being a match of weaklings.

transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 49%, Ryu with 32%, Draven with 19%



KP's Analysis

X has every reason to win this match. He could also get 3rd. Against Ryu, he has no reason to drop it, none whatsover...and then I looked at that match pic and I just start to worry, very badly. That's one of the worst pics X could have gotten. Not bad enough to make me switch to X, but...man.
Draven is impossible to predict. Maybe his 'rally' materializes, maybe it doesn't. With Bacon's supposed new and improved anti-cheating system, I don't think Draven 'rally' will have as much oopmh as it did before. Plus, this guy's big rally only let him get somewhat ahead of Jak and Chie. Draven's playing with the big boys, now. People aren't gonna unanimously support him over X and Ryu.

X - 40%
Ryu - 35%
Draven - 25%



Guest’s Analysis - PaulG

Ever since Draven managed to turn a laughable last place to Chie and Jak to an easy first place within hours, there has been a lot of discussion as to whether Draven can capitalise on that sort of rally power in this match. The slugs that are Chie and Jak have been replaced with Ryu and Mega Man X, both which are easily high-midcarders. Since the Draven match, we've seen another LOL character in Teemo fail to get any support whatsoever and finish in a distant last place against L-Block and Paluntena.

This leaves two questions; the first is can he manage to obtain that same kind of rally power he had last round against X and Ryu and not crash and burn like Teemo did? The second, Would that rally power be strong enough to pull the upset over the two Capcom characters?

My answer to that first question is that it is possible for Draven to summon that same rallying power again in this match, but I feel that the strength of Ryu and X will be too much for the LOL character to handle. Realisticallly, I believe Draven can finish anywhere between 15-30% depending on rallying power. In order fo him to win this match, either he needs to be leading straight from the get-go or at least come very close to Ryu during the opening hours of the match. Should that happen, we could be seeing Draven in Round 3.

But moving on to who will win between X and Ryu. This should be where we can finally grab a reliable read on how strong Mega Man X is compared to Mega Man Vanilla. The matches between Link don't count since they were facing two very different Links. Remember this 2006 poll?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2542

Mega Man 58-42'ed Ryu in that match. If you want to use Ryu as a barometer, then X needs to easily flatten Ryu here to prove that he is on Mega Man's level. Personally, I don't think X will win that easily, but he should still be able to throw down a respectable showing here in this match.

Draven - 28.91%
Ryu - 33.81%
X - 37.28%



Crew Consensus: X is the slight favorite over Ryu
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

No crew curse meaning X > Ryu > Draven confirmed.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.

crew curse

Draven wins
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~

I like how I have Ryu winning yet have him with the second lowest percentage
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

so yeah, I wrote mine before that awful picture

still think Ryu picks are crazy, I'm more worried about Draven than Ryu
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

I'm worried about both. Come on X
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

MMX with more than 60% on Ryu is way more crazy than Ryu winning. The real Mega Man can't even get that.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Lopen posted...

MMX with more than 60% on Ryu is way more crazy than Ryu winning. The real Mega Man can't even get that.

MMX to rise to 2010 Cloud levels for one match and beat down Ryu for one match confirmed

I'm preparing my laughter at the crew as we speak
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F*** BT

I guess MMX is Cloud
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

Ken >>>>>> Ryu
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0

okay Ryu's out of the picture

now it's just Draven that scares me
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

transcience posted...

okay Ryu's out of the picture

now it's just Draven that scares me

This. Except I never thought Ryu would be in it. Except when I was thinking way outside the box like with Leon's "Draven rally helps Ryu" stuff.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

Leon's he stole that from me! (My write-up is listed first so clearly I thought of it first)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

and here we go

if this happens, Link is screwed next round too
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

bold predictions take precedence sorry~!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

X still gained like 70 votes on Draven.

Like I said with X thrashing Ryu I think he's safe. If Ryu/X was closer to even I'd be worried.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

this is only the beginning
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

like I said!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

lol
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F*** BT

Still not buying it. It'll be close though.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

over without intervention
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

get the Zelda forums to rally hard for Mega Man X, solution solved

"Fair, next"
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

KP, use your Tidus stuffing powers to rally ZeldaInformer
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F*** BT

KamikazePotato posted...

"Fair, next"

Think I'd rather just hear silence from Bacon than that!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

Jak and Chie are gonna look so GODLIKE in the lolx-Stats
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F*** BT

There's no way this is legitimate. The question here is whether the vote stuffing has limits and whether said stuffer is being too blatant about it like Marisa and he'll actually get caught this time.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

TheKoolAidShoto posted...

Jak and Chie are gonna look so GODLIKE in the lolx-Stats

Jak v Link who ya got
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

I look forward to the oracle picks for Draven/Link
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.

Janus5000 posted...

crew curse

Draven wins

this is the best match
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Many people, of course, use 'sentimentalism' as a term of abuse for other people's decent feelings, and realism as a disguise for their own brutality. G H Hardy

Kinda considering passing the Crew torch to someone else. I'll probably stick around but I'm not too interested in predicting a contest that inevitably ends in Draven, really. Maybe I can just stick around and super half-ass every writeup. Quarter-ass?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Poor Shepard. He's gonna get like 5% next round.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

KamikazePotato posted...

Kinda considering passing the Crew torch to someone else. I'll probably stick around but I'm not too interested in predicting a contest that inevitably ends in Draven, really. Maybe I can just stick around and super half-ass every writeup. Quarter-ass?

But these contests were never about who won. If they were, then nobody would enjoy them because the same character always wins.
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Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery.

Eh, even when Link was winning, there were other things to look forward to, like how characters stacked up to each other. A Draven rally just sort of squashes any and all stats for this contest.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Not all of them. Link's third of the bracket is a disaster now though.

Crono is going to save this contest, just you all wait!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX