Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

#301 | Lopen | Posted 8/17/2013 1:53:57 PM | message detail
A world where Donkey Kong thrashes debated matches easily is not a world I want to live in
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#302 | OlDirtyNumbers | Posted 8/17/2013 2:20:34 PM | message detail
good show, gamefaqs. good show.
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#303 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 10:14:05 PM | message detail
Crew Predictions - 71/78

What Happened: Rikku killed a joke and some other stuff

What will Happen: Nothing out of the ordinary, Zero looks good in his R2 match



Crew Prediction Challenge

KP - 71
Kleenex - 70
Moltar - 69
Leon - 68
Guest - 66
Tran - 65
Lopen - 58

Crew Expert Challenge

KP - 57
Tran - 54
Kleenex - 53
Leon - 52
Moltar - 52
Guest - 48
Lopen - 40


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets Jill and X, Kleenex gets Haggar, Lenneth and Kratos, FFD gets Bird, Lopen gets Boko, KP gets Cube and Claptrap, Luis gets Block, Lyndis, and Rikku

Moltar - 48
Lopen - 41
Leon - 40
Tran - 36
KP - 35
Kleenex - 34
Guest - 28 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy, PaulG (4), Bane (3), Chris, lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (3))
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#304 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:27 PM | message detail
Division 9: Round 1 - Match 81 – (7) Charizard vs. (12) Riku vs. (21) Nier

Moltar’s Analysis

Charizard
Venusaur is better

Riku
we DARKNESS now

Nier
We've nierly weeded out all the fodder.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2010 contest was Charizard's deep run culminating with a strong performance against Mario. That means he might be overrated here.

Still, Charizard is strong enough to beat up on 2nd tier KH characters like Riku. Charizard vs Sora would be good, but the Poke should be able to take out Riku easily. Plus, Pokemon in general has looked good this contest and Charizard is going to be the strongest of them all.

Meanwhile, Sora didn't look too hot in his match, so it's possible that KH is still around its weaker 2010 levels. If that's the case, then Charizard could beast here.

lol nier

Moltar’s Prediction: Charizard: 58% - Riku: 31% - Nier: 11%



Lopen’s Analysis

FRAUD DETECTION WARNING

55% on Kratos, 64% on Duke Nukem, 60% on L Block, 54% on Bowser, 46% on Mario

Which one of these is the real deal? Who knows, but probably none of em are at risk to lose to Riku in any case. My money is on FRAUD DETECTED and that he's going to be in for a fight next round. Time will tell.

Lopen's prediction:
Charizard - 44.45%
Riku - 38.15%
Nier - 17.40%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Finally, the end of round 1! Here’s a chance for Charizard to prove his worth. He’s got a lot of inconsistent performances from 2010, so it’s hard to say which one is the most legitimate. He’s in no danger of losing to Riku either way, but this is a “proving” match for him. He needs to prove he’s at the near elite level he showed from his matches against Bowser and Mario and not the good-but-not-great performances against Duke and Kratos if he wants to best Mega Man in a couple rounds. Will the real Charizard please stand up?

Please stand up?

Please stand up?

(Also Nier is from a spiritual sequel based on an alternate ending to Drakengard, so you can imagine how well he’s going to do after what Caim did)

Leonhart’s Vote: Nier

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Charizard – 52.00%
Riku – 38.00%
Nier – 10.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#305 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:50 PM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

Often times something weird happens in the final match of round 1. We've seen Master Hand > Kuja, Pac-Man > Ocelot, Sub-Zero > Chief, Jill > Ocelot and that messed up Ike/Duke/Gordon 3-way.

No such luck this year. The PokeRampage continues and Charizard stomps all over Riku and Gary Busey. I guess at the very least we'll get to see how things likely shake out next round, but I personally never did and still don't think Zelda stands a chance there. save_us.LINK.

Kleenex's Prediction
Charizard with 59.00%
Riku with 27.00%
Nier with 14.00%



Transience’s Analysis

You know, we've had like 80 something matches and I still don't have a good sense of how Pokemon is doing. There are like 12 Pokemon in this contest but there's really only four that matter - Charizard, Squirtle, Pikachu and Mewtwo - and those guys have all had pushover matches. (I hesitate to throw Red and Blue in there.) Charizard obviously wins this match, but by how much? This is the first match where Charizard is seen as a massive favourite after his nutty run in 2010. Let's see how much of it was legit and how much was just weird Pokefans + people wanting something new to break up the usual suspects.

transience's prediction: Charizard with 57%, Riku with 29%, Nier with 14%



KP's Analysis

A nice, boring match to end Round 1.

Charizard - 58%
Riku - 32%
Nier - 10%



Crew Consensus: Charizard closes out R1 with its win
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#306 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 8/17/2013 10:31:42 PM | message detail
emergency guest analysis

don't **** with the zard.

Zard - 55%
Riku - 30%
Nier - 15%
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#307 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 11:17:30 PM | message detail
#308 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 8/17/2013 11:21:43 PM | message detail
so 59 is our highest huh
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#309 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 11:25:31 PM | message detail
#310 | Surskit | Posted 8/18/2013 12:55:00 AM | message detail
Augh, I'm so sorry for missing the guest write-up! I was totally set on making it happen today but I got tangled up on something else that got me away from my computer the entire day.
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.-#Elements of Water#-.
#311 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 5:02:11 AM | message detail
Are we doing the fodder match? I'll just post it here.

Lopen's analysis:

Kaim wins through looking better? This is the drakkengard guy? For some reason I thought the xenoblade 3rd wheel was here.

Either one wins. SBD gets 2nd from name value, or something.

Tanner would still get last here. Actually he probably wouldn't but JAY SOLANO would.

Lopen's prediction:
Kaim/Xenoblade Character - 50%
Spring Breeze Why Isn't This Goemon - 30%
Chester "not about the cheese based snacks" "not a cheetah" - 20%
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#312 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/18/2013 10:20:14 AM | message detail
Bonus Match: – Chester vs. Caim vs. Spring Breeze Dancin'

Moltar’s Analysis

Chester
what

Caim
the

Dancin'
****
































Moltar’s Prediction: Chester: 15% - Caim: 50% - Dancin': 35%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Nope.

Kleenex's Prediction
Chester with 3.51%
Caim with 6.69%
Spring Breeze Dancin' with 5.26%



Transience’s Analysis

WHY

WHO WANTS TO SEE THREE PIECES OF TRASH FACE EACH OTHER

THE ONLY INTERESTING PART IS WATCHING THEM BE TERRIBLE, BUT YOU CAN'T EVEN DO THAT HERE

ANYWAY SPRING BREEZE DANCIN' HAS A COOL NAME WHICH PROBABLY MEANS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE HERE. ENJOY A REALLY DUMB 12 HOURS

TRANSIENCE'S NON-PREDICTION: SPRING BREEZE WITH 45%, CAIM WITH 40%, CHESTER WITH 15%



Crew Consensus: Caim sucks the least
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#313 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 12:25:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
Seriously though when did the match become this and why did it become this? I just don't see the point of this match at all. Solano/Tanner/Chester is a weakest of the weak but Caim/Dancin/Chester seems pointless.

Why not have fodder someone actually cares about in the Caim slot? Dan Hibiki or CATS there would be rad.
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#314 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 12:41:14 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Seriously though when did the match become this and why did it become this? I just don't see the point of this match at all. Solano/Tanner/Chester is a weakest of the weak but Caim/Dancin/Chester seems pointless.

Why not have fodder someone actually cares about in the Caim slot? Dan Hibiki or CATS there would be rad.


Apparently Bacon saw the poll Luster made where this match setup won.

Board 8 never gets it right.
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#315 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 12:45:52 PM | message detail
My Writeup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGIneP2UHM0
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#316 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/18/2013 12:50:33 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Lopen posted...
Seriously though when did the match become this and why did it become this? I just don't see the point of this match at all. Solano/Tanner/Chester is a weakest of the weak but Caim/Dancin/Chester seems pointless.

Why not have fodder someone actually cares about in the Caim slot? Dan Hibiki or CATS there would be rad.


Apparently Bacon saw the poll Luster made where this match setup won.

Board 8 never gets it right.


This match didn't win, though. Solano/Tanner/Chester did.
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#317 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 12:52:25 PM | message detail
Bacon can't do that because Tanner isn't actually in this contest. And that also would've been dumb, because I doubt Tanner loses that poll.

An actual good option would've been something like Tidus/Falcon/Scorpion, but that wasn't even close.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#318 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 12:56:35 PM | message detail | (edited)
Eh I think this match could've been fine if a lovable fodder was in Caim's spot. Changing Solano/Tanner/Chester into this is just more evidence Bacon doesn't "get it."
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#319 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/18/2013 1:19:15 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Bacon can't do that because Tanner isn't actually in this contest. And that also would've been dumb, because I doubt Tanner loses that poll.

An actual good option would've been something like Tidus/Falcon/Scorpion, but that wasn't even close.


Is it that hard to put them into the contest? Just upload some pictures.

And I think Tanner X Solano X Chester was more interesting than this match. At least Chester wouldn't be a lock for last place.
#320 | Ngamer64 | Posted 8/18/2013 5:04:14 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Eh I think this match could've been fine if a lovable fodder was in Caim's spot. Changing Solano/Tanner/Chester into this is just more evidence Bacon doesn't "get it."

Eh I'm fine with this choice. The poll setup this year requires that every character have a match pic, secondary picture when you get to results, debut game, debut year, quote, and short bio. So adding Tanner and Solano would have actually been more work than you'd expect.

There also would have been no way to explain that match to a larger audience. With this choice he was able to put this sentence on the front page

"Round 1 of the Character Battle is complete, so enjoy today's Last Place Bonus Battle before Round 2 begins tonight at 9PM!"

I still agree that a Second Chance Match between 3 guys who were narrowly eliminated would have been more fun, but 80% of B8 wanted to see the worst fodder imaginable instead so they got their wish.
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#321 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 7:38:53 PM | message detail
You can still claim it's for last place and have CATS or Dan replace Caim because it's CATS or Dan, two guys who are known jokes.
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#322 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 9:24:24 PM | message detail
Writeup sent, in case you were waiting for me or something, Moltar!
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#323 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/18/2013 10:01:30 PM | message detail
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 82 – (1) Link vs. (6) Raiden vs. (9) Yoshi

Moltar’s Analysis

Link
Round 1 - 72.67% vs. Isaac and Tingle

Didn't even get 75% on fodder Link is so screwed

Raiden
Round 1 - 49.77% vs. Waluigi and Alan

Okay performance from the rain transformed

Yoshi
Round 1 - 60.05% vs. Solaire and Demi-Fiend

Unimpressive showing from Yoshi against fodder

And Round 2 starts off with a character I like getting pounded into the dirt by Link for the second time. Yoshi didn't even break 20% on Link when they last met in 2004, but Link isn't as good at SFFing as he was back then because now he gets "Link always wins" anti-votes.

The question here is if Raiden is strong enough these days to beat SFFed Yoshi. He's probably around 25% on Link, and I could see Yoshi doing around that after SFF on Link as well. Something to note here though is that Nintendo SFF has been brutal this contest, so Yoshi could end up looking a lot worse than he should (and he will look bad here trust me)

In short, both characters wasted woo this contest.

Moltar’s Prediction: Link: 60% - Raiden: 22% - Yoshi: 18%



Lopen’s Analysis

Who wants some Link doomsaying? I do! Link is going to be embarrassed by this match. Windwaker Link + stupid quote (yes, until proven otherwise, I'm going to claim the quotes will have an effect) + Yoshi LFF + anti-votes. Raiden's going to make the Magus performance of 2003 look pedestrian here, and I'm going to love every minute of it.

Lopen's prediction:
Link - 50.24%
Raiden - 32.61%
Yoshi - 17.15%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Link: Voted Most Likely to Succeed

Raiden: Voted Best Naked Cartwheeler

Yoshi: Voted Most Colorful

Wind Waker Link is his most vulnerable form. Does this mean Raiden has a chance at a historic upset?! Unfortunately not, but he should be able to take second place here. While Link doesn’t SFF things as hard as he used to (as evidenced by going from 80% on Yoshi in 2004 to 70% on Luigi in 2010), he should still be able to inflict enough pain on Yoshi to drive him into last place here. Plus, we’ve seen plenty of bad SFF beatdowns in this format so far, so the trend could continue here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Raiden

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Link – 56.00%
Raiden – 25.00%
Yoshi – 19.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Oh hey, Round 2. Only 40 matches left to go! "Only".

Another round means another Link beatdown and this time Yoshi is unfortunate victim. The Nintendo plebeians know when to fall on their sword for their master. Not that Link will have any particular trouble with Raiden, but there are very few Big N dudes that can hold up halfway respectably against Link. And by very few I mean one. It's Mario. And even he gets doubled. Raiden didn't impress me very much last round, what with the whole letting Waluigi get close to him thing. Still, he should hold up enough here to get second place.

Kleenex's Prediction
The Champ with 59.00%
Raiden with 24.00%
Yoshi with 17.00%
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#324 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/18/2013 10:01:35 PM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

OH MY GOD ROUND 2 PRAISE LINK THAT ROUND 1 IS OVER

TOO BAD ABOUT HALF OF ROUND 2 IS NOBLE NINE SNOOZEFESTS

So, Link wins this easy, and he probably takes Yoshi down with him. Any "Not Link" vote probably goes to Raiden, not Yoshi, so I'll take him for second.

transience's prediction: Link with 59%, Raiden with 23%, Yoshi with 18%



KP's Analysis

Round 2! It's about time. Link crushes this, so it's all about that second place match. Now, Yoshi could get second. Link's SFF power has weakened, and while he should still kill Yoshi fairly badly, Yoshi is inherently to be stronger than Raiden.

With that said, I think Raiden's got this. His Round 1 performance is sneakily impressive - the beginning was heavily affected by rallying; when they rallying wore off, he started killing Waluigi (and if guys like Olimar can be decent, so can Waluigi). Meanwhile, Yoshi had a pretty unimpressive R1 performance, I think. I would expect Solaire and Demi-Fiend to be as fofder as fodder gets. Plus, it's a night match.

Link - 56%
Raiden - 24%
Yoshi - 20%



Guest’s Analysis - Sir Chris

So this is a pretty important match for the future of the contest because it let's us know where Link stands both when it comes to his ability to make nintendo characters look bad as well as seeing where someone like Raiden stands against the mighty godcrusher that is Link. Personally I think the elites are coming back to the pack a bit over the years due to people getting over the fact that they love Link to pieces. That being said though I don't think Link has fallen off quite so much not to make both of these guys look pretty bad, but perhaps he has lost his touch when it comes to making them look like complete shells of their former glory. Only a little bit, though.

Link - 63%
Raiden - 21%
Yoshi - 16%



Crew Consensus: Link wins again
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#325 | transience | Posted 8/18/2013 10:04:42 PM | message detail
crew curse for second

oh wait second doesn't matter
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xyzzy
#326 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:04:51 PM | message detail
Oh dear nobody took Yoshi for second
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#327 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/18/2013 10:06:54 PM | message detail
Good no matter what happens my continued dominance of the Expert Challenge will continue HA HA HA
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#328 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/18/2013 10:51:44 PM | message detail
Master Moltar posted...
Transience’s Analysis

OH MY GOD ROUND 2 PRAISE LINK THAT ROUND 1 IS OVER

TOO BAD ABOUT HALF OF ROUND 2 IS NOBLE NINE SNOOZEFESTS

So, Link wins this easy, and he probably takes Yoshi down with him. Any "Not Link" vote probably goes to Raiden, not Yoshi, so I'll take him for second.

transience's prediction: Link with 59%, Raiden with 23%, Yoshi with 18%


You think round 2 is boring? Just wait for round 3. Everything will be a Noble Nine beatdown, unless the pokemon do their job.
#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:52:34 PM | message detail
#330 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:55:30 PM | message detail
save_us.pokemon
#331 | paulg235 | Posted 8/18/2013 10:56:09 PM | message detail
save_us.draven
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"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#332 | th3l3fty | Posted 8/18/2013 10:57:21 PM | message detail
save_us.snake
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I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#333 | Lopen | Posted 8/18/2013 10:57:47 PM | message detail
After seeing these alternatives save_us.link I think
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#334 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/18/2013 10:58:16 PM | message detail
#335 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/18/2013 11:57:05 PM | message detail
Crew Predictions - 73/81

What Happened: DK ain't scared of no SFF and beat Lightning, and Charizard proved it's legit

What will Happen: Zelda/DK/Charizard...oh boy



Crew Prediction Challenge

KP - 73
Kleenex - 72
Moltar - 71
Leon - 70
Guest - 68
Tran - 67
Lopen - 60

Crew Expert Challenge

KP - 59
Tran - 55
Kleenex - 54
Moltar - 54
Leon - 53
Guest - 50
Lopen - 41


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets Marston, KP gets Zelda and Sack, Lopen gets Lightning, meche gets DK, Leon gets Falco, Kleenex gets Charizard, nameplz gets Riku, Moltar gets Nier

Moltar - 50
Lopen - 42
Leon - 41
Tran - 36
KP - 37
Kleenex - 35
Guest - 30 (Kuza, Kotetsu (3), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy, PaulG (4), Bane (3), Chris, lefty (2), tennisboy, AKJ (2), DarkFalcon, FFD, Luis (3), meche, nameplz)
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#336 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/19/2013 7:25:09 AM | message detail | (edited)
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 83 – (2) Commander Shepard vs. (5) Tharja vs. (20) Aerith Gainsborough

Moltar’s Analysis

Shepard
Round 1 - 54.01% vs. Olimar and Kain

Not a great showing, but maybe the FemShep pic hurt

Tharja
Round 1 - 36.21% vs. Tina and Juliet

It took a late rally, but she barely managed to beat a Borderlands character, woo!

Aerith
Round 1 - 50.98% vs. Hero and Rinoa

Just one of many disappointing showings from FF7

Shep vs. Aerith was debated pre-contest, and it's still a bit up in the air now. Shepard is the slight favorite for me going in based on what we've seen so far. Mainly, ME characters have looked good with Garrus breaking 45% on Subby and Wrex outright beating Cecil and Pit. We didn't have a good read on Olimar pre-contest, so it's hard to say how good 35% on him is, but even low-tier Nintendo has looked alright when they aren't in matches with other Nintendo characters.

Meanwhile, Aerith got 69% on Rinoa, which looks pretty bad after Knuckles was just 2% away from that number on Seifer. Hero, who shouldn't be that strong, doing well on Aerith also doesn't seem right. Still, there was FF leeching in both those matches, so those numbers might be a bit misleading.

I'll go with Shep in this day match but it should be within a few percent either way.

Oh right and Tharja gets last easy. In fact, her presence here just helps Shepard stand out even more.

Moltar’s Prediction: Shepard: 45% - Tharja: 15% - Aerith: 40%



Lopen’s Analysis

My god, the picture for this match is amazing. In a just world, Tharja would win just because of how hilarious that is. Well, in a just world she'd win just because she's better but I digress.

Unfortunately as much as I want to convince myself she has a shot at first or even second because of that pic, actually going for it... well, as much as I love upsets I do try to believe in them when picking em. Alas GameFAQs just has a poor track record as far as being able to appreciate good humor. I do think she'll significantly overperform, however, and she'll probably soak up almost all the anti-FFVII vote. So strangely enough despite thinking Tharja gets the biggest boost from the pic, I think this makes Shep/Aeris closer than it should be as well.

Yet in spite of this, Commander Shepard has enough breathing room that he can be hurt and still win this, I think.

Lopen's prediction:
Commander Shepard - 37.10%
Aeris - 35.13%
~<3~Tharja~<3~ - 27.77%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Commander Shepard: Voted Best Advertiser

Tharja: Voted Most Appropriate Senior Quote

Aerith Gainsborough: Voted Best Cheap Date

Tharja’s going to show us how weak her threepack really was with how badly she performs here. This match is all about Shepard and Aerith. I still think Aerith should be the favorite despite me backing Shepard here because he has to prove he belongs here first. FFVII has looked kind of lackluster so far, but the Commander didn’t exactly blow the doors off of his first round match himself (or herself, in the case of the first round match, which COULD have been a factor).

Garrus and Wrex doing well in their first round matches gives a bit of confidence in Shepard’s strength because he should be noticeably stronger than either of them. Aerith’s still pretty strong though, so she could win this match comfortably and I wouldn’t bat an eye. I think she needs to win comfortably, too, because if it’s close toward the end, there’s no way FFVII wins. It’d just be good to see Shepard win so we could have a relatively new character who’s worth a crap in these contests, so that’s what I’m rooting for.
#337 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/19/2013 7:24:26 AM | message detail
Leonhart’s Vote: Commander Shepard

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Commander Shepard – 44.00%
Aerith Gainsborough – 42.00%
Tharja – 14.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This picture is great, and it is also WARNING. There is some debate as to whether Aeris can take on Shepard here. The picture and I am here to tell you that is not the case! All things being even (both Shepard and Aeris didn't look super great round 1), Shepard has a lot to help him out this time. For one, Male Shep is back in town and is probably stronger than FemShep - incorrectly, I might add, but I digress. I also think a day match probably helps out Shepard a bit here. This match also sees the return of the very very powerful anime girl from an RPG SFF, so Aeris is basically screwed. And in the event of a close match, the voters won't let FF7 win.

Kleenex's Prediction
Shepard with 42.00%
Tharja with 20.00%
Aeris with 38.00%



Transience’s Analysis

I think there are two ways to look at this match:

1.) This is Final Fantasy VII vs. a western RPG character, and although Mass Effect has been by far the best of the newschool series' for producing new characters with strength, it's going against the king here. Besides, Shepard has gone downhill ever since Mass Effect 3 ruined everyone's feelings on the series. Why pick against the king without a real reason?

2.) Aeris kinda sucks and Shepard is in the perfect position to upset the contest balance. Aeris hasn't had a good performance since 2003 versus expectations. She got murdered by Zelda in 2006 and came nowhere near Sora and Squall the next year. Auron put her away without any trouble either. She's a night character in a day match. And if there's any fear about Final Fantasy always wins, Wrex just came along and beat Cecil. Actually, Mass Effect has been pretty good across the board - Garrus did respectable against Sub-Zero too, and while Mordin lost to a horse, let's face it. A lot of people are going to lose to a horse on this website.

I'm going with option 2. No respect for Aeris. Tharja could hurt her as well.

transience's prediction: Shepard with 44%, Aeris with 39%, Tharja with 17%



KP's Analysis

Both Shepard and Aeris looked bad in Round 1, but I think Aeris looked worse. Intangibles or otherwise, but DQV Hero did to her pack was pretty inexcusable. Shepard couldn't even double Olimar, but that looks less bad after a bunch of random Nintendo character all did fairly well.

I just think Shepard is more relevant in this day and age, even accounting for GameFAQs not playing anything past 2006. Aeris is not a character that people are going to continue caring about as time goes on. Having a slight Female RPG overlap with Tharja is just icing on the cake.

Shepard - 42%
Aeris - 40%
Tharja - 18%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#338 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/19/2013 7:25:29 AM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu

In Raiden's words "This is where it gets interesting." Round 2's first non-Link features the first debatable match between characters with at least upper-midcard strength, and it's between FFVII and western gaming's one true hope. Something's gotta give.

But down here in the Aerith bunker it's been getting pretty lonely. Shepard was the guru favourite before the contest and after FFVII and ME's showings we've had many defectors. Somewhere between Aerith's failure to double Hero and Urdnot Wrex upsetting both Pit and Cecil everyone abandoned for higher ground.

I'm still here though, and quietly confident about our chances. One thing that also came out of Wrex's match was that Pit sucked - there's no two ways about it. So I'm taking that as evidence that Olimar probably sucks too. And if that's true, Shepard's 65% on Olimar doesn't look too great. I don't think Garrus' or Mordin's showings were amazing either - solid, but not really noteable. I'd never worry about picking Aerith over Sub-Zero, anyway.

Aerith's match featured two unknown characters, one of whom probably leeched her pretty badly and the other who had Toriyama's aesthetic going for him. I'd take their combined strengths over those of Kain and Olimar, and Shepard was only 3 points higher. Granted he's got his real pic now, and he'd have gone up a little with it, but even then it wasn't the showing of a fearsome near-elite.

I think this match is actually Aerith's to lose. If she's really as strong as her 44% on Auron from 2010 would indicate, I think she's too strong for him to reach. If FFVII has actually dropped, then she probably loses.

Quote Advantage: Tharja. You can't have that comment and stare at Aerith without winning the quote war. I don't think Shepard's or Aerith's do much for or against them.

Aerith - 45.5%; Commander Shepard - 42.5%; Tharja - 12%



Crew Consensus: Shepard is the heavy favorite over Aerith
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#339 | transcience | Posted 8/19/2013 7:29:53 AM | message detail
phew
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#340 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/19/2013 7:30:14 AM | message detail
Literally mistook a Solidus quote for Raiden's. Oh yeah.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#341 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/19/2013 7:32:19 AM | message detail
y'all gonna be amazed when Tharja wins

she's gonna be the standard for how strong an ffvii joke character can be
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~War~
#342 | transcience | Posted 8/19/2013 7:37:55 AM | message detail
Aeris wins via joke votes
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#343 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/19/2013 8:46:17 AM | message detail
whew guest saves us from the crew curse
I can pick Shepard without worry now
#344 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/19/2013 11:01:26 AM | message detail
FF7 ALWAYS WINS!!!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#345 | transcience | Posted 8/19/2013 11:08:37 AM | message detail
Shepard sux
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#346 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/19/2013 11:18:55 AM | message detail
I think this is the biggest death knell for recent character/games I've seen so far, even though it was kinda expected. Shepard struggling with Aeris is not something you'd see anywhere else on the internet.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#347 | transcience | Posted 8/19/2013 11:22:15 AM | message detail
ff7 won the board vote huh
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#348 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/19/2013 11:26:25 AM | message detail
what a crew
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F*** BT
#349 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/19/2013 11:27:11 AM | message detail
we've got to throw a couple softballs to the guest otherwise they wouldn't even bother
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#350 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/19/2013 11:56:50 AM | message detail
Apparently a single guest isn't enough to prevent a crew curse.