Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

#251 | transcience | Posted 8/16/2013 6:52:01 PM | message detail
did people actually want that poll? I saw luster's topic but it seemed like just luster stuff
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#252 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/16/2013 6:56:14 PM | message detail
Who knows!

Now we get to see the dude from Drakengard win a match

whoopie
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#253 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/16/2013 7:00:37 PM | message detail
my prediction is a three-way tie with zero votes
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#254 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 7:00:49 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
So the bonus poll is Chester/Caim/Dancin

We predicting that or what


I would like to see the Crew do some write-ups for the bonus match.

Of course, this means we need a Guest as well.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#255 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/16/2013 7:01:05 PM | message detail
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5226.jpg

Tharja's going to win.

Biggest pic advantage of all time.
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#256 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/16/2013 7:01:53 PM | message detail
transcience posted...
did people actually want that poll? I saw luster's topic but it seemed like just luster stuff


No one else on the board was making topics suggesting ideas for the bonus match, so I took full control of the situation by working with Board 8 to come up with a bonus match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#257 | Ngamer64 | Posted 8/16/2013 9:17:13 PM | message detail
transcience posted...
did people actually want that poll? I saw luster's topic but it seemed like just luster stuff

A "Last Place Match" or turbo fodder match was the overwhelming favorite, something like 80% of the board wanted to see that rather than the other options, which were

Second Chance Match (strong characters that lost close polls)
Snubs Battle (strongest characters that missed the bracket)
Ultimate Blowout Match (Link vs turbofodder to see how high a % can go in this format)
Some Garbage With Dark Link/Samus/Sonic
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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show!
#258 | Korayashi | Posted 8/16/2013 9:19:30 PM | message detail
If the crew is doing write-ups for the bonus match..dibs. Let me know.
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Nominate Spring Breeze Dancin' from Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon for Character Battle IX!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJrnlFW4IMc
#259 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:04:17 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
So the bonus poll is Chester/Caim/Dancin

We predicting that or what


if you want to

i won't make it required
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#260 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:06:43 PM | message detail
Division 9: Round 1 - Match 79 – (3) John Marston vs. (16) Zelda vs. (25) Sackboy

Moltar’s Analysis

Marston
Marked red and will end up dead

Zelda
Hey it's that green dude from Legend of Zelda

Sackboy
I almost forgot it actually has a win in these contests

Zelda is the obvious lock for first since we know she's strong. RDR was a well-received game that the site seemed to like, and Sackboy is high enough fodder to beat Kratos Aurion. Basically, the question here is if John will be better than fodder or not.

I'll say he'll be fodder and Sackboy will be weaker than he was 3 years ago. John kind of reminds me of Lee here, main characters of a highly acclaimed game that a good number of GameFAQs played. That should be enough to get him in the mid-to-high 20s, which is what it should take to beat Sackboy.

Moltar’s Prediction: Marston: 26% - Zelda: 52% - Sackboy: 22%



Lopen’s Analysis

Zelda looks like a goofball and that dude with the shotgun looks pretty badass.

I sense an underperformance here.

Unfortunately we've got a boy that's all about sacking up here so shotgun guy probably has to shut up. That and being the board underdog can't help here.

Lopen's prediction:
Zelda - 55.08%
Sackboy - 22.67%
Marston - 22.25%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Zelda wins easily. I think we all know this. I don’t think she’ll look particularly good, but she won’t be in any danger. I think Sackboy takes second here though. He looked pretty decent in 2010 (35% on Leon Kennedy isn’t a bad performance), and John Marston just isn’t this site’s kind of character. At least, I don’t think he is. Red Dead Redemption did surprisingly decent in GOTY in 2010, but I don’t think Marston will have any kind of staying power. He would’ve done fine if he’d been in a contest right after the game came out, but it’s already been over 3 years. His time has passed.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sackboy

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Princess Zelda – 47.00%
Sackboy – 30.00%
John Marston – 23.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Being a 3 seed this contest is bad news. Pretty much every single one of them has either lost, or massively under performed in relation to expectations. John Marston will be no exception. While the population of GameFAQs might prefer Red Dead Redemption to a GTA or something of the sort, Read Dead came out 3 years ago and even if Marston is a cool character, I don't think anyone cares anymore. Especially not in the face of ZELDA. Speaking of things no one cares about anymore, check out Sackboy. He might be weak enough to even lose to Marston these days. I don't actually know, but who cares because ZELDA.

Kleenex's Prediction
Marston with 23.00%
ZELDA with 52.00%
Sackboy with 25.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#261 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/16/2013 10:06:47 PM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

I spent five minutes trying to come up with something witty to say about this match, because god knows there isn't anything else to say about it. I failed.

let's try a haiku, for old times sake

zelda beats sackboy
john marston comes in last place
gamefaqs with bad taste

transience's prediction: zelda with 52%, sackboy with 28%, marston with 20%



KP's Analysis

Sackboy did decently enough back in 2010, but I think he's be weaker nowadays. LittleBigPlanet was recent back then, and nobody cares about it or Sackboy right now. The same is probably true for Marston...but he's a cowboy.Good enough for me!

Zelda - 57%
Marston - 22%
Sackboy - 21%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane

So I’m not a huge fan of Zelda’s pic (although it’s not bad per-say, just not digging it myself) and Sackboy’s pic is amazing. I also think that Marston should have gotten an in-game pic instead of the RDR cover art, which comes across as a bit lazy to me. Why am I starting out by talking about the match pics? Because I think it could have some factor in the results, perhaps a bit more so than in some other matches.

I think it’s a safe bet that Zelda will win this match. She actually looks like she has gained some strength in her past years of contests, although that could be because of the opponents she’s faced. She also went against Samus 2 times, losing by a greater percentage in the more recent of the 2. That being said, this is her match to lose.

Between Marston and Sackboy, it’s a bit hard to say. Sackboy didn't make much of a splash in the 2010 contest, and Marston is untested territory. Being the main character of a highly popular and acclaimed game plus the character himself being highly regarded puts him in a nice spot. And as much as I disagree with using Marston’s pic, it can give him an advantage of people seeing that it’s the same as the cover to RDR and getting the vote. Sackboy will get the cute factor (as he should) and as I said his pic factor is great. LittleBigPlanet is also another series that is highly acclaimed and Sackboy himself is instantly recognizable. I honestly want to give it to Sackboy but my gut is holding me off from it, so I think Marston’s got 2nd.

Zelda- 44%
Marston- 29%
Sackboy- 27%



Crew Consensus: Zelda's Light Arrow takes out the competition
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#262 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 11:40:11 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5226.jpg

Tharja's going to win.

Biggest pic advantage of all time.


Aerith lost her biggest potential advantage when Bacon didn't use "This guy are sick" for her quote.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
#263 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/16/2013 11:41:20 PM | message detail
Also surprisingly good performance for Zelda here! Makes me feel a tad better about having her beat the Zard next round!
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif
#264 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 8/17/2013 12:20:56 AM | message detail
nobody went over 60 with her huh
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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 12:26:49 AM | message detail
Well, I'm sure if anyone expected Sackboy to drop this low, people would have!
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http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif
#266 | Lopen | Posted 8/17/2013 12:55:50 AM | message detail
I actually had Zelda at 60% before I looked at the pic.

Then I took 5% from her and added it to badass shotgun guy.

The moral of the story is never look at pics.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#267 | transcience | Posted 8/17/2013 4:52:14 AM | message detail
whoa suckboy
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#268 | Lopen | Posted 8/17/2013 5:05:16 AM | message detail
Man Sackboy > Kratos Aurion makes less and less sense

Is he like the new age Pac-Man or what.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#269 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/17/2013 5:08:37 AM | message detail
Sac-Boy doesn't have the same ring to it
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#270 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 5:08:42 AM | message detail
Who knew the Super Bowl would give Sackboy such a power boost
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#271 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/17/2013 5:09:41 AM | message detail
I like how KP is gonna get the point for Sackboy despite being almost 10% too high.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#272 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/17/2013 6:17:47 AM | message detail
holy sack
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#273 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 8/17/2013 6:23:40 AM | message detail
#274 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/17/2013 8:16:08 AM | message detail
Lightning has stolen Donkey Kong's bananas. Can Donkey Kong get them back?
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#275 | meche313 | Posted 8/17/2013 9:18:16 AM | message detail
just sent my guest write-up.
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It took 3 days for Link to stop the angry moon.
Though it took 127 matches, Black Turtle is our new Guru Champion. Congrats!
#276 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:30 AM | message detail
Division 9: Round 1 - Match 80 – (4) Lightning vs. (15) Donkey Kong vs. (24) Falco

Moltar’s Analysis

Lightning
First a black-haired Cloud, now a big-bust Cloud

Donkey Kong
His new album 'Banana Shake' drops next Tuesday

Falco
Personally, he prefers to not lose by SF beatdown.

Lightning vs. DK is very debatable. Lightning looked stronger before FF13 than after. Also a lot of people are mixed about her being the star of yet another FF13 game. DK, on the other hand, should be on the rise after the well-received DKCR. There was definitely upset potential here.

Unfortunately, Falco's presence makes this pretty lame. Falco saps Nintendo and Smash support away from DK, while Lightning stands out. Maybe if DK smashes Falco down like Fox did to Wolf, he has a chance, but this isn't a Space Animals match. In fact, when Falco isn't getting SFF-smashed by Mario, he's off beating GlaDOS and not too far behind Scorpion. He does have fans of his own along with some decent strength. He is probably going to end up closer to that choker DK than most expect.

Moltar’s Prediction: Lightning: 43% - Donkey Kong: 30% - Falco: 27%



Lopen’s Analysis

Lightning vs DK is a pretty interesting match. She looked pretty respectable against Sonic in 2010. FFXIII wasn't very well received, but Lightning's the Dante type of character who could very well exceed her game on strength of design. She has a lot of spinoffs, too, so yeah, there's a lot of stuff going her way, especially with DK's excellent choking record.

But DK got the power of being from games that are from earlier than 2010, which as we all know on this site is a big positive. And the site loves Nintendo, and DK is an icon! Hoo boy, this is tough.

Oh... hey Falco, sup?

Lopen's prediction:
Lightning - 41.85%
Donkey Kong - 32.15%
Falco - 26.00%



Leonhart’s Analysis

People are really down on Lightning, but I think she’ll be decently strong. I would’ve picked her to beat DK here even without Falco being in the poll, but the LFF just makes it a no brainer because there’s no way DK flexes any sort of SFF muscle, DKCR or not. Wouldn’t be surprised if he found a way to lose to Falco, really. DK’s ability to disappoint knows no bounds! Too bad we won’t get a good read on Lightning one way or the other in this contest because she’s stuck in two Nintendo LFF matches, unless she somehow squirms her way through next round (Believe).

Leonhart’s Vote: Lightning

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Lightning – 50.00%
Donkey Kong – 30.00%
Falco Lombardi – 20.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Alright, so I see a lot of people talking down about Lightning. Everyone hates FFXIII they say. Donkey Kong could beat her even with Falco in the poll they say. F*** that noise I say. Sure, FFXIII isn't particularly well liked, but for some reason, Lightning is. Not by everyone - clearly she's not going to be a Noble Nine breaker anymore (and what a shame!) it's certainly enough to offset the XIII hate and certainly enough to avoid losing to Donkey Kong. I think (hope) that Lightning really impresses here. Not because I think she has a shot at an SFF win next round (she doesn't), but mostly to STICK IT to all the haterz (aka zfs). Also screw Donkey Kong, who actually likes that guy. He could lose to Falco!

Kleenex's Prediction
Lightning with 50.01%
Donkey Kong with 25.00%
Falco with 24.99%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#277 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/17/2013 10:16:37 AM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

One of these times, Donkey Kong is going to show up to a contest match, and it could be this time. He had his first legit game in years and people really liked it! With a 3DS port that just came out a couple of months ago! There's overlap with Falco but nobody cares about Fox Jr. anyway. DK should have no problem with that.

Besides, this is Lightning. Lightning! You know, the running joke about Square for five years running (since she's the only character they've really made). Lightning is a character who was cooler before her game ever came out. Now that it's out and people can roll their eyes at it, it makes sense that Donkey Kong, one of the first video game icons on a website powered by nostalgia, would have no problem putting her away. He's got reasons to boost, Lightning's got reasons to suck and Nintendo always beats Square. Easy match.

hahahahahahaa just kidding dk sux

transience's prediction: Lightning with 45%, Falco with 30%, Donkey Kong with 25%



KP's Analysis

I'd take DK>=Lightning, but it would be close. There is no way that Lightning is anywhere near as strong as she was back in 2010 - FF13 actually releasing should've seen to that. With Falco here, there's really no debate.

Lightning - 44%
DK - 33%
Falco - 22%



Guest’s Analysis - meche313

We were so close on getting a very interesting and debatable match between Lightning and DK. Instead, Falco was included and it seems there is not too much to discuss about this match anymore.

Lightning gave us quite a surprise as 16-seed when her game hadn't even been released. Things have changed though, as she has already been in two games and neither have made an impact. This leaves me to believe that DK should be at her level post-XIII but he will be splitting the Smash vote with Falco. Factor the huge match-pic advantage (although people are so down on FF7 that it might not help that much) for Lightning and this one won't be close.

Lightning - 43%
Donkey Kong - 36%
Falco Lombardi - 21%



Crew Consensus: Lightning beats Nintendo
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#278 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/17/2013 10:38:19 AM | message detail
suck it leon
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#279 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 10:39:55 AM | message detail
Price is Right'd

Kleenex confirmed for worst kind of person

he probably pronounces it like TYE-dus, too
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F*** BT
#280 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/17/2013 10:45:28 AM | message detail
Wait that doesn't actually add up to 100

Being on the Crew apparently kills your ability to do basic math

Give 1% to Lightning or something
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#281 | th3l3fty | Posted 8/17/2013 10:46:20 AM | message detail
now watch Lightning get 43.9%
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#282 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/17/2013 10:50:06 AM | message detail
You say that like I have a chance at winning the Accuracy Challenge anyway
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#283 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/17/2013 11:06:44 AM | message detail
i hate everything
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#284 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/17/2013 11:06:50 AM | message detail
God what a dumb crew who hired these guys anyway
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#285 | paulg235 | Posted 8/17/2013 11:07:54 AM | message detail
CREW CURSE IN EFFECT!
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#286 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 11:08:29 AM | message detail
fire everyone Moltar
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F*** BT
#287 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/17/2013 11:09:02 AM | message detail
more like who let these people vote

why does anyone like donkey kong

why
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#288 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/17/2013 11:09:29 AM | message detail
literally crew cursed by donkey kong
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#289 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 8/17/2013 11:13:42 AM | message detail
You lot just wait till that Cloud factor kicks in
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#290 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 11:14:47 AM | message detail
which is more powerful the DK Choke or the Crew Curse

stay tuned
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#291 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/17/2013 11:18:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
screw this contest, time to watch it burn to the ground

and by that I mean GO LINK
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#292 | transcience | Posted 8/17/2013 11:24:47 AM | message detail
I'm really not surprised by this result. if there's one character that was going to underwhelm, it's Lightning. she's become a joke lately.

still, you can't pick DK for anything! even if he wins!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#293 | ZFS | Posted 8/17/2013 11:27:20 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
screw this contest, time to watch it burn to the ground


you should have believed
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#294 | transience | Posted 8/17/2013 11:43:35 AM | message detail
so, Zelda/DK/Charizard

how does this change things
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xyzzy
#295 | transience | Posted 8/17/2013 11:44:34 AM | message detail
whoa, just looked at the Guru. I thought Charizard would be about 50/50 with Zelda. oops!
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xyzzy
#296 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/17/2013 11:45:09 AM | message detail
transience posted...
whoa, just looked at the Guru. I thought Charizard would be about 50/50 with Zelda. oops!


Zelda and Wrex upsets gonna win me the Guru
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#297 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 11:48:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'd like to see how Char does tomorrow against Riku before I say anything definitely, but I'd think Char would still win. Zelda % was higher than expected, but that's because Sackboy was lower than expected, so I don't think that changes too much. I guess it comes down to who's the strongest Nintendo character here because SFF is pretty powerful in three-ways apparently(my GOD Falco is ass), and I'd like to believe it's Charizard

Then again, coming into this contest we all figured Lightning to be a sure thing here, so LOL all that old s***
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F*** BT
#298 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/17/2013 11:49:59 AM | message detail
Also, Riku would probably beat Lightning at this point, so keep that in mind for tomorrow
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F*** BT
#299 | transcience | Posted 8/17/2013 1:16:36 PM | message detail
I thought Zelda/Charizard was 50/50 but now feel pretty good about Charizard
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#300 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 8/17/2013 1:33:51 PM | message detail