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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

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#251 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/5/2013 10:00:39 PM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 57 – (9) Knuckles the Echidna vs. (10) Seifer Almasy vs. (19) Celes Chere

Moltar’s Analysis

Knuckles
Rougher than the rest of them

Seifer
What's better than a FF character?

Celes
Two FF characters!

Knuckles vs Seifer and Knuckles vs. Celes are debatable. Knuckles vs. Seifer vs. Celes is not unless we're talking about the Expert Challenge.

Knuckles is strong enough to take advantage of two fairly equal (probably equal) FF characters splitting votes. As for 2nd place, Celes looked good in 2010 while Seifer had his ass carried by Squall in the Rivalry Rumble.

Old Square has looked better than new Square so far, so I'll go with Celes > Seifer.

Moltar’s Prediction: Knuckles: 45% - Seifer: 23% - Celes: 32%



Lopen’s Analysis

What a waste of Seifer, huh? Couldn't even serve as a trap to catch chickenwusses off guard cause there's Celes apparently leeching him. On the leeching though I don't think this'll matter all that much-- FF6 and FF8 probably have distinct enough fanbases after seeing Zack/Kefka. But the point is it warded people off of an upset they might foolishly take otherwise. Knuckles still wins easily because these two are both gonna be weak though. Celes takes #2 cause she's more liked by the fanbase of her game and Seifer doesn't really have any intangibles of note.

This match makes me think of the funnier jokes where Knuckles faces two similar characters. Knuckles vs Liquid Snake vs Solidus Snake would be funny given his history. Or Knuckles vs L-Block vs ? Block... get it, because Knuckles punches blocks... it's okay, you can laugh, it's funny!

Lopen's prediction
Knuckles - 44.44%
Celes - 30.06%
Seifer - 25.50%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Bacon continues to display his hatred of FFVIII with this match. I believe Allen deliberately held Seifer out of the bracket the year he had NRT support because he hates the game so much, but now that there’s 241 characters, people would know for sure he’s tampering with the bracket if he left him out. So in his UTTER BITTERNESS, he puts Seifer up against Celes just to ensure he had no chance to win, just as he did with Rinoa against Aerith.

…That being said, I wouldn’t pick Seifer to win this match regardless of who’s in this match unless it was another Sonic character. Knuckles is a bit out of his league, I think, especially after Sonic Team has looked pretty good up to this point so far. Well, Old Sonic Team anyway, because LOL Shadow, although the fact that Shadow won at all is a plus for him at this point.

I also don’t think Old Square and Modern Square have a lot of disproportionate overlap, so I don’t really believe Celes will hurt Seifer THAT much, but if he bombs, I will argue for Seifer/Celes LFF to the bitter end until we get Laguna in the next contest (who we should’ve rallied for from the start, but at least it wasn’t as bad as choosing Otacon over guys like Gray Fox and Psycho Mantis, but hey). No conflict of interest here. Well, unless he loses to Celes outright, then yikes. I guess I’ll have to argue hard for Laguna being much stronger due to Dissidia!

C’mon whoever wins the Guru, pick Laguna for the next Character Battle

Leonhart’s Vote: Seifer Almasy

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Knuckles the Echidna – 44.00%
Seifer Almasy – 33.00%
Celes Chere – 23.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#252 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/5/2013 10:00:46 PM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

Knuckles tried several times to shift himself away from her but she would move herself closer to him every time he did so. Soon she wrapped her arm around him making him flinch and blush even heavier than normal. "What's wrong with you, Knuxie?", Rouge asked smiling, "Your guardian duties never taught you how to be nice to a girl". "No, I was raised to fight and to protect. I never formed any relationships because they distract me from my duties as a guardian", Knuckles siad looking away from her. "How sad", Rouge said, "You mean you never felt anything for me when I first came over?" "All I felt when you came over was the desire to smash your head into the ground", Knuckles grumbled to himself. "As I recall, it was I who dealt the first blow and you didn't even see it coming", Rouge grinned wickedly. Knuckles growled to himself as he turned back to her, "I DID N-!" They both stopped as they stared into each others eyes. Rouge's alluring sapphire eyes and Knuckles' fierce purple amethyst eyes meeting each other. The last time this happened was when he saved her from being killed when they both were hunting for the shards of the master emerald (See Sonic Adventures 2).

She found herself blushing as she found herself helplessly looking into his sincere eyes. Her other hand which wasn't wrapped around his shoulder started unconsciously roaming around his chest feeling every strong muscle. Knuckles blushed feeling her hands roaming on his chest while he slowly placed one hand on her cheek then slowly brought her face close to his until their lips met in a sweet kiss. Knuckles moaned as she twirled her tongue around his prompting the echidna to push his tongue into her mouth exploring every inch of it. She wrapped her arms around his neck as they kept kissing until Knuckles felt her large soft

Kleenex's Prediction
Knuckles with 49.00%
Seifer with 22.00%
Celes with 29.00%



Transience’s Analysis

Well, I hope you enjoyed the days of debatable matches. We're entering a stretch of about two weeks where there isn't going to be much to debate. Expect a crew consensus unless Lopen decides it's time to be bonkers and pick Tom Nook to win a match or something.

There's an argument to be made that FF6 has done really well this contest and how Seifer won't really affect Celes. It's not a good argument though because Sonic looked about as good as anyone has this first round, and if guys like Spyro and Crash can get some weird nostalgia vote, Knuckles should be golden. There is not an argument for Seifer to be anything other than sub-Rinoa, which is pretty freaking bad. Knuckles probably leads early and extends throughout the day.

transience's prediction: Knuckles with 50%, Celes with 33%, Seifer with 17%



KP's Analysis

Poor, poor FF8. Rinoa and Seifer finally get in and they get stuck with LFF/SFF junk. Seifer wouldn't beat Knuckles anyway, but at least he might've looked respectable. As-is, I'm vaguely worried that he'll lose to Celes, although Locke>=Celes seems about right and Locke wouldn't beat Seifer.

Knuckles - 45%
Seifer - 30%
Celes - 25%



Crew Consensus: No one stops Knuckles' feet
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#253 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/5/2013 10:02:57 PM | message detail
ITT, Moltar cannot tell his Final Fantasy VI females apart.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#254 | pjbasis | Posted 8/5/2013 10:18:17 PM | message detail
Whoops forgot about this!
I just whipped this up

This contest has broken me a little. Been wrong a lot of the time, and while I've made up for it with my expert bracket, the trends do not bode well for this match. I took Seifer in my bracket because I believed he should be stronger than Cecil, who got 48 percent on Knuckles. I don't believe Celes would overlap that much, so that didn't matter to me.

Not that any of the matches so far say particularly anything about Sonic or Final Fantasy characters despite all the "FFVII IS WEAKENING" going around, I just doubt that my bracket is gonna survive this match. Maybe it's just my lowered confidence in the picks I made before the contest started but I decided to switch to ol Knux for my expert. Or it's all the casual characters doing terrible, and FFVIII probably benefits from their votes.

BAH

SEIFER - 41.00%

KNUCKLES - 38.00%

CELES - 21.00%

Can't stop my ROMANTIC DREAM
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#255 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 8/5/2013 10:31:21 PM | message detail
Quick question: were either Celes or Seifer in dissidia?
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#256 | Big Bob | Posted 8/5/2013 10:39:52 PM | message detail
My thought process going into this match was "beating Square characters in Round 1 is what Knuckles is good at. Better pick him!"
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Currently reading: Stiff
Currently playing: Assassin's Creed III, Cloudberry Kingdom
#257 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/5/2013 10:51:50 PM | message detail
whatisurnameplz posted...
Quick question: were either Celes or Seifer in dissidia?


No.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#258 | transience | Posted 8/5/2013 11:01:20 PM | message detail
Seifer could take second here
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xyzzy
#259 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/5/2013 11:17:16 PM | message detail
Rinoa might very well end up being stronger than Seifer here. SFFed Rinoa put up a better performance against Aerith than Seifer is putting up against Knuckles.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#260 | transience | Posted 8/5/2013 11:18:18 PM | message detail
so much for that! die seifer
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xyzzy
#261 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/5/2013 11:21:10 PM | message detail
LOL ff8
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F*** BT
#262 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/5/2013 11:21:25 PM | message detail
Huh. I didn't realize Celes>Seifer was what people thought would happen, especially with that weird Celes pic.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#263 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/5/2013 11:22:32 PM | message detail
And Kleenex escalates by posting Knux/Rouge smut! Ball's back in your court, Lopen!
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#264 | Lopen | Posted 8/5/2013 11:27:32 PM | message detail
He didn't even write his own stuff! A real man would've created homebrew Knux x Celes x Seifer fanfiction

I'll show him how it's done... you watch
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#265 | ZFS | Posted 8/6/2013 1:12:07 AM | message detail
Whoa, go Celes.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#266 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 4:46:26 AM | message detail
Yep, I was afraid this would happen.

save_us.laguna
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#267 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 4:47:23 AM | message detail
Although this is a surprisingly respectable performance for Celes. She's doing as well on Knuckles as she did on The Boss.

Old Square revival at work apparently

Good news for Crono!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#268 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 6:55:37 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Huh. I didn't realize Celes>Seifer was what people thought would happen, especially with that weird Celes pic.


For all you know, Lettuce Kefka won't hurt Kefka anymore.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#269 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2013 7:28:18 AM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 58 – (2) Ezio vs. (17) Tails vs. (26) Bomberman

Moltar’s Analysis

Ezio
overseeded once again

Tails
Never fails

Bomberman
Fun fact: He has never been doubled in a contest match

I had a write-up for this but I think I saved over it by accident and now I don't have time to write it all up again oh well.

Long story short, Ezio is the favorite here because he's looked the strongest in the past of the three, but Sonic characters have looked good this contest and Bomberman probably won't be completely awful.

I'll stick with Ezio but wouldn't be surprised to see an upset.

Moltar’s Prediction: Ezio: 42% - Tails: 34% - Bomberman: 24%



Lopen’s Analysis

Originally had ASSASSINO here but after seeing other ASSASSINO underwhelm and Sonic stuff/icons do better I think Tails has a good chance. I actually think Bomberman has an outside shot too-- dude's not actually that weak.

That bein said ASSASSINO should still win if for no other reason than being the stand out. Tails and Bomberman hurt each other more-- replace Bomberman with say Nathan Drake and I pick Tails here but yeah.

Didn't transience say there are no more debatable matches? I sure hope someone picks Tails here cause in my eyes this is still a very debatable match and I'm confused as to why Ezio is such an overwhelming Guru favorite. Didn't anyone see that by the last x-stats Ezio and Tails are right next to each other? ... you know what, stand out factor has been a bust this contest to some extent, I'm changing my mind. Sonic's been looking good and Altair only barely doubling the Xenoblade character has been a huge red flag for me for a while now.

I really really want to take Bomberman here... c'mon Bomberman CURSE CURSE CURSE

Lopen's prediction:
Dat Boy Prower - 35.50%
ASSASSINO - 33.33%
Bomberman - 31.17%



Leonhart’s Analysis

When I first saw the bracket, I was tempted to take Tails for the upset after recalling how poorly Ezio did against Simon Belmont in his debut (on top of finishing lower than Phoenix Wright in his division that year). But Ezio’s got plenty of reason to be stronger now than he was then. When he made his contest debut, AC2 was still fresh off the presses, and to a lot of people, Ezio was a guy with a really long, weird name. Since 2010, Ezio’s had two more games and a third game that didn’t feature him, but apparently people disliked the new main character so much he couldn’t even get into the contest. So that could give Ezio some residual “Man, I miss Ezio. He was so cool” boost or something.

However, newer characters still haven’t been doing all that well in the contest, so I don’t expect Ezio to destroy the poll or anything. Plus, Tails and Bomberman are both decent anyway, so they should put up good showings here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Ezio Auditore da Firenze

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 45.50%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 31.00%
Bomberman – 23.50%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#270 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2013 7:28:24 AM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

After what we saw Altiar do, this match should be a no-brainer. Tails and Bomberman are probably a bit stronger than Ratchet and Shulk, but Ezio should be a good deal better than Altair too. He'll also have "that assassin guy" votes. Still, this likely won't be that close (for first place, anyway). Ezio is going to have a good match, where he'll probably win the first five or six updates really quickly, shank-style, like UH UH UH UH UH.

It will be oddly satisfying.

Kleenex's Prediction
Ezio with 54.00%
Tails with 25.00%
Bomberman with 21.00%



Transience’s Analysis

Tails does have a chance here, if everything falls right. Of all the new western characters, Altair is the only one that hasn't bombed. In a way, it's kind of surprising how strong the AC guys are. There's always the chance that Ezio ends up getting embarrassed when actual nostalgic competition shows up. Sonic guys have looked pretty good so if Tails really shows up, something nutty could happen.

The thing is, we already had that kind of situation with Ratchet and Altair and Altair took care of business. Ezio should theoretically be stronger than Altair, and while Tails is better competition, he's never seemed like a character anyone really really likes like Sonic or Knuckles. I bet Bomberman doesn't help Tails's odds either. Hopefully Ezio can look pretty good here as the only guy created after 2006 to actually be worth a damn.

transience's prediction: Ezio with 46%, Tails with 35%, Bomberman with 19%



KP's Analysis

Bomberman has been decent, but Sonic Team has been on the rise and Ezio should be Altair++. Should be a nice staircase match, assuming no weird stuff.

Ezio - 48%
Tails - 31%
Bomberman - 21%



Guest’s Analysis - ZenOfThunder

S***, I totally signed up for this when I have no investment in any of the characters. At least it's pretty clean-cut! Right? Riiiight?

Ezio is Ezio, he's got like a bajillion games and a lot of swag. Also it's "BADASS ASSASSIN vs kiddie character vs kiddie character"

Then we have Tails, who I think may do better than expected because Sonic & Co. have been s***ting all over their opponents lately. Except Shadow who nobody likes anymore. Do people like Tails? I guess people like Tails.

Also, Bomberman, who hasn't done much since that rumble with Phoenix way back when, right? At least he has that game name factor, although I doubt it'll help when you're up against icons like Ezio and Tails. When's the last time this guy had a game anyway?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict something cray-cray. Well, not THAT cray-cray. Just a big Ezio underperformance.

Ezio: 42.19
Tails: 35.59
Bomberman: 22.22

I have no idea what I'm talking about though, which is why I'm just the guest.


Crew Consensus: Ezio calls Heads and wins
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#271 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2013 7:29:32 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
ITT, Moltar cannot tell his Final Fantasy VI females apart.


whoops

confusion pays off!
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#272 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/6/2013 7:44:41 AM | message detail | (edited)
Lopen posted...

Didn't transience say there are no more debatable matches?


He said "no more debatable matches... unless Lopen decides it's time to be bonkers"

LOL

I hope your bomberman theory is right. I don't know what was going in my head when I picked him.
#273 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/6/2013 7:45:49 AM | message detail
Lopen should be hidden bladed(or something like that) for not have Ezio winning.
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#274 | transcience | Posted 8/6/2013 9:01:51 AM | message detail
thanks Lopen!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#275 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:05:09 AM | message detail
Maybe the rest of the crew would get hidden bladed then...But Tails winning?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#276 | transcience | Posted 8/6/2013 11:08:01 AM | message detail
oh board 8 and your fear of western characters
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#277 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:09:34 AM | message detail
Crisis averted.But I don't get it.Everyone says that Japanese games are on stagnation but they don't care for western characters.Why is that?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#278 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/6/2013 11:10:11 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Crisis averted.But I don't get it.Everyone says that Japanese games are on stagnation but they don't care for western characters.Why is that?


Western characters look generic and lack the charm/nostalgia Japanese characters have.
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#279 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/6/2013 11:42:29 AM | message detail
Just got back - Tails was dominating at the start? Kind of sad I missed that.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#280 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/6/2013 11:45:07 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Crisis averted.But I don't get it.Everyone says that Japanese games are on stagnation but they don't care for western characters.Why is that?


Complaining about games is easier than playing games!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#281 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/6/2013 11:46:39 AM | message detail
all western games are just dudebro shooters obv
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#282 | Lopen | Posted 8/6/2013 1:57:27 PM | message detail
Man didn't I just say I need to stop picking against my bracket. Whhops!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#283 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 2:31:40 PM | message detail
#284 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2013 10:01:30 PM | message detail
Crew Predictions - 50/56

What Happened: Samus smashes her opponents, and Neku/Catherine had a day long battle, but Catherine pulled away in the end

What will Happen: Samus smashes next round too



Crew Prediction Challenge - ouch

Kleenex - 50
KP - 50
Moltar - 48
Leon - 47
Tran - 46
Guest - 46
Lopen - 42

Crew Expert Challenge - kleenex growing his lead

Kleenex - 41
KP - 41
Tran - 41
Leon - 39
Moltar - 37
Guest - 35
Lopen - 30


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets Samus and Neku, Moltar gets Isaac, KP gets Sandbag, Lopen gets Catherine, Moltar and Kleenex get Vaas

Moltar - 38
Tran - 30
Leon - 28
Lopen - 28
Kleenex - 22
KP - 22
Guest - 18 (Kuza, Kotetsu (2), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy, PaulG (4), Bane, Chris, lefty (2), tennisboy)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#285 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2013 10:09:07 PM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 59 – (5) Auron vs. (14) Revolver Ocelot vs. (23) Roxas

Moltar’s Analysis

Auron
because Tidus is just a disappointment

Ocelot
He's pretty good

Bomberman
What a dud

This is easy. Auron's a near elite, Ocelot lost to a Pokemon Trainer, and Roxas has to deal with a stronger Square character SFFing him. Next.

Moltar’s Prediction: Auron: 51% - Ocelot: 32% - Roxas: 17%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well, you see, Roxas leeches Auron's KH suppo-- flipping Roxas?

I'll just be on my way now.

Lopen's prediction:
Auron - 50.20%
Revolver Ocelot - 34.12%
Roxas - 15.68%



Leonhart’s Analysis

This match is kind of a waste. Ocelot’s not strong enough to take advantage of whatever LFF Auron and Roxas may share. In fact, Ocelot and Roxas without Auron being in the way would probably be a more debatable match than this. These are three guys who all have the potential to provide some interesting matches, and they all go to waste in this bracket. This is probably one of the best first round matches in terms of the overall quality of the characters involved though, so it has that in its favor, I guess. They were ranked #19, #20, and #21 on my last Characters list, so I think Bacon was reading that topic and took some inspiration from it or something.

Also half the characters in this match aren’t alive when their games start

Leonhart’s Vote: Revolver Ocelot

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Auron – 50.00%
Revolver Ocelot – 32.00%
Roxas – 18.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

So I got peer pressured into buying SMT4 last week and now that I've had some time to play it, I was thinking I'd talk about it a bit. I'm not totally sure where I stand yet, though. I think it's an alright game, but it's having a tough time really grabbing me. It feels very old-fashioned, it's kind of like I'm playing an SNES with a coat or two of extra paint on it. I suppose that's the point and the appeal of the game, but I'm not totally digging it. I think the demon fusion is fun, but I kind of wish character progression was a bit faster so I could make some better demons. I'm getting there though and I fused a pretty good Oni the other night. Story-wise I think it's interesting enough so far. I'm not on the edge of my seat or anything, but they set things up pretty nicely - though again, I think the pacing might be a little too plodding at the beginning. Still, I'm at least interested in seeing where things go. I'm not going to say I regret the purchase or anything (I think the art/strategy guide is really sweet), but so far I think I probably could have done without it, especially with Saints Row 4 right around the corner. It did only end up being $20 though, because of the Fire Emblem deal, and it was all on GameStop store credit anyway. I hope I get into it more, but things do seem to be picking up where I am now (just beat Minotaur). We'll see, I guess.

Oh yeah, and Auron beats Ocelot who beats Roxas.

Kleenex's Prediction
Auron with 53.00%
Ocelot with 27.00%
Roxas with 20.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#286 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2013 10:09:16 PM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

Auron's got first place locked up. The interesting thing is his percentage as compared to Roxas and Ocelot, and to try and determine how FF10 as a whole looks off of that.

Of course, everyone else will think the real match here is for second place, as if the Expert Challenge matters. Yay, trying to pick losers who won't advance! Congratulations, Roxas, I'm backing you over Ocelot. I think Roxas is sneaky strong, not anything outstanding but enough to beat Ocelot who has always somehow sucked compared to how good he should be. Ocelot should be up around Scorpion range, or at least Liquid Snake range, but for some reason he's not. I also think Auron in the poll hurts him a bit. Combine that and I'll back Roxas, even though this is a night match and picking KH over MGS in a night match of relatively equal strength is downright insane.

By the way, how the hell am I in the Crew lead for the Expert Challenge? I've made at least two joke picks! Get it together, Crew. I say this as someone who's about to lose more points.

transience's prediction: Auron with 51%, Roxas with 25%, Ocelot with 24%



KP's Analysis

Roxas gets stuck with Square SFF again. Ocelot would beat him anyway. Auron beats both of them. Yyyyup.

Roxas would be in contention to win this match (or at least beat Ocelot) if Square hadn't COMPLETELY screwed up the plot of Kingdom Hearts 2. Screw Sora, seriously.

Auron - 50%
Ocelot - 31%
Roxas - 19%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane

Aaaaaaannnnnnnddddd this match is a no-brainer. Auron is Auron, Ocelot could put up a fight considering it’s a night-time match but probably not, and Roxas is a Kingdom Hearts character which usually fail outside of Sora, and even Sora disappoints compared to what he could do.

Now, even it being a night match doesn't help Ocelot too much because Auron does best at night. Actually, all 3 characters are poised to do better at night, so that pretty much cancels out that factor. My money stands on Auron, and I have a pretty strong feeling that’s what we’re gonna get. Final Fantasy characters seem to be a hit or miss in this contest but Auron is definitely one of the stronger ones. He also isn't really going against strong opponents, so he doesn't need to be at his best to win. Could we throw in a “That’s not actually Roxas in the picture” factor in? I doubt it, but it’s hilarious nonetheless.


Auron- 45.00%
Ocelot- 35.00%
Roxas- 20.00%



Crew Consensus: Auron winzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#287 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/6/2013 10:16:26 PM | message detail
Kleenex's pseudo-review of SMT4 was the best part of this round analysis :P
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#288 | transience | Posted 8/6/2013 10:23:45 PM | message detail
huh I didn't even realize that Auron would overlap with Roxas

oh well

(beat smt4 last night, I'm still not sure how much I like it)
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xyzzy
#289 | ZFS | Posted 8/6/2013 10:26:48 PM | message detail
SMTIV gets really good after the Minotaur, in fact!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#290 | transience | Posted 8/6/2013 10:37:02 PM | message detail
it gets so damn easy in the back half

like ridiculously easy
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xyzzy
#291 | Bane_Of_Despair | Posted 8/6/2013 11:22:15 PM | message detail
Wow, I just realized that I had such confidence in Auron yet I put him at the lowest percentage compared to the rest of you......huh.
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
3DS FC- 5472-6201-0498
#292 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/6/2013 11:38:34 PM | message detail
Half the characters, Leon? Does that mean one and a half of them aren't alive?

...Actually, that sounds about right, since Roxas is a Nobody and therefore doesn't exist as such until Sora temporarily takes leave of his own heart. So Auron's the dead one, Ocelot's the live one, and Roxas is the GODDAMMIT SQUARE WHY MUST YOU MAKE KINGDOM HEARTS' PLOT SO CONFUSING?

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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#293 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/6/2013 11:41:41 PM | message detail
transience posted...
it gets so damn easy in the back half

like ridiculously easy


My main character's magic stat is twice that of any demons I'm getting

Things die fast
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#294 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/6/2013 11:47:04 PM | message detail
Guess I'll get started on SMTIV now? I got it a few days ago, but I'm still working on my first-ever runthrough of FFIV (started during Rydia's match against Alucaptain Falcard) and then when I went to redeem my code for my $30 credit I noticed that Kirby's Dream Land 2 was finally available for the 3DS VC. I think the Dark Matter trilogy represents the pinnacle of the series--although that's not to take anything away from the other great games!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#295 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/7/2013 12:18:30 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5199
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5200

Crew Predictions - 52/58

What Happened: Knuckles and Ezio win their non-debatable matches

What will Happen: Ezio isn't going to beat Auron looking like that



Crew Prediction Challenge - the rich get richer

Kleenex - 52
KP - 52
Moltar - 50
Leon - 49
Tran - 48
Guest - 47
Lopen - 43

Crew Expert Challenge - same

Kleenex - 43
Tran - 43
KP - 42
Leon - 40
Moltar - 39
Guest - 36
Lopen - 31


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar and KP get Knux, Moltar gets Seifer, Lopen gets Celes, Leon gets Ezio and Bomberman, Leon and KP get Tails

Moltar - 40
Leon - 31
Tran - 30
Lopen - 29
KP - 24
Kleenex - 22
Guest - 18 (Kuza, Kotetsu (2), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy, PaulG (4), Bane, Chris, lefty (2), tennisboy)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#296 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 4:43:10 AM | message detail
Aw yeah swept the last match even though I technically tied on Tails.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Half the characters, Leon? Does that mean one and a half of them aren't alive?

...Actually, that sounds about right, since Roxas is a Nobody and therefore doesn't exist as such until Sora temporarily takes leave of his own heart. So Auron's the dead one, Ocelot's the live one, and Roxas is the SQUARE WHY MUST YOU MAKE KINGDOM HEARTS' PLOT SO CONFUSING?


Yes, that's the joke.
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http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif
http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif
#297 | transience | Posted 8/7/2013 6:24:15 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
transience posted...
it gets so damn easy in the back half

like ridiculously easy


My main character's magic stat is twice that of any demons I'm getting

Things die fast


http://i.imgur.com/sb4cgBL.jpg

I made this guy and then autobattled bosses in the last dungeon because nothing could hurt me
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xyzzy
#298 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/7/2013 7:30:09 AM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 60 – (8) L-Block vs. (11) Teemo vs. (20) Palutena

Moltar’s Analysis

L-Block
If you didn't know already, this thing won a contest

Teemo
LOL lol

Palutena
http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/7559/xov.gif

Ugh, now that the LoL fanbase proved they can successfully rally a ton of votes to be tough competition like Jak and Chie, I have to treat Teemo as a threat here.

This will be a good test to see how their rally will go against a character with some strength. Non-joke rally boosted L-Block is pretty much a midcarder. Meanwhile, non-rally LoL characters get doubled by Jak. As you can see, Teemo has quite the gap to make up.

I don't think it's going to happen. Sure, Teemo could get rallied, but it'll be against a Tetris piece. That right there hurts the cause because 1) It will siphon votes away because it's a Tetris piece and 2) Might get rallied like it did in the past to beat Link. The gap between the two on top of those points makes it really hard for me to see Teemo winning.

Oh, and Palutena just kind of gets buried here if this turns into a rallyfest.

Moltar’s Prediction: L-Block: 49% - Teemo: 35% - Palutena: 16%



Lopen’s Analysis

I think Block is going to drop off yet again here despite the 3 way being a reason to think he might have a bit of a resurgence. I'm pretty sure most of our remaining voterbase was here for 2007... and 2008... and 2010. The joke is about done now. If Palutena was a vaguely competent entrant I'd actually take her to win. If she had a more flattering pic I might take her to put a scare in the match, too.

She could still take second. I think if Teemo gets a rally it might not be enough to take second on the rally alone, and I don't think the Draven stuffer(s?) (yeah I went there) wants to push his luck and double down on Teemo-- but if he does Teemo will probably win outright with a still weaker L-Block.

There's also a chance Teemo doesn't get a rally at all because the fanbase doesn't want the thing to get old or the rally people dislike Teemo. That'd be more credit than I expect, though. Gonna keep him in third considering the possibilities but who knows, really?

Lopen's prediction:
L-Block - 40.88%
Palutena - 30.20%
Teemo - 28.96%



Leonhart’s Analysis

This match is dumb and there’s no point to analyzing it because who knows what’s going to happen, so let’s just listen to the lovely Ali Hillis say stuff instead:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7dOOy8kBJY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAcfTFWUPk8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZZQt4x3xaY

Leonhart’s Vote: Ali Hillis

Leonhart’s Prediction:

L-Block – 41.00%
Teemo – 39.00%
Palutena – 20.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#299 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/7/2013 7:30:21 AM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

Hmm. This match could be weird. Palutena is kind of worthless here, she's almost assuredly locked in for third place. You'd think L-block would be kind of hard to read after its 2007 run, but the Tetris piece looked surprisingly consistent at around mid-carder status in 2010. So does Teemo get a rally like Draven, and is that rally enough to beat a decent mid-carder (something Jak could only dream of being)? I'm gonna say no. I'm not going to claim to know the inner workings of the LoL fanbase, but I don't think Teemo has any sort of meme behind him to help rally votes or anything. Seriously, look at this dude, does anyone care about this thing?

http://upload-2.lionzer.com/image_global/4-mouse-picture/_light-131719-teemo.jpg

Then again, if the LoL fanbase is as rabid as some have lead to believe they could rally one of their guys to the finals without too much trouble. And it wouldn't be the first time that L-block has lost to a rat...

Kleenex's Prediction
L-block with 43.00%
Teemo with 39.00%
Palutena with 18.00%



Transience’s Analysis

So, after a month of contest matches, we can finally talk about the elephant (L-ephant?) in the room. We've been debating legit characters (okay, pathetically weak characters, but still), but now we move on to jokes. Bacon was nice enough to cram them all into one half of the bracket. L, Missingno, ?, Donkey Kong, Cube, all of them get their chance these next couple of weeks.

We start with the former champion, who now finds himself as a massive favourite in a match of weaklings. I think people are a little scared of Teemo due to the nonsense that Draven pulled -- which is fair. But this isn't Chie and whoever else. Jak I think. I think 'uhhh I don't care' votes automatically go to the L here, and Palutena being a dead weight means Teemo needs a lot of votes. A lot of GameFAQs will never know what a Teemo is and Palutena is about as low tier as a Nintendo character can be,. Percentages are tough to pick here but the L should boot its way into round 2.

transience's prediction: L-Block with 59%, Teemo with 31%, Palutena with 10%



KP's Analysis

http://www.twitch.tv/teemodies
Block - 46%
Teemo - 36%
Palutena - 18%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#300 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/7/2013 7:32:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

This match really scares me, especially after what Draven did in his match. I don't know the LoL fanbase at all, so I don't know whether Draven or Teemo is more popular, though I've supposedly heard Teemo is more liked by the fanbase. If that's the case, it would be a little bit easier for Teemo to get a larger rally than Draven did.

Teemo is at a disadvantage here, because this is a day match. Draven was lucky to pull a night match, which worked wonders for his Reddit rally. With Reddit being a more European based site than GameFAQs, you'd probably expect a Teemo rally to have less strength in a day match than the Draven rally in a night match. The higher vote totals in a day match will also dilute the rallied votes somewhat.

Draven may have been able to beat Jak after being doubled by him prior to the rally, but L-Block is far stronger than Jak. Teemo has a tougher uphill battle to deal with, combined with the day match, means that his chances of winning are very slim. Though he might have a chance if he gets a full 12-hour rally.

As for Palutena, I would have predicted her to beat Teemo at his base strength, but with a strong potential for a rally, I have to go with Teemo for 2nd place. Predicting the percentages in this match is really difficult because I'm trying to factor in the rallies. So if the rallies don't happen at all, my prediction will look really bad.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: L-Block
Luster Soldier's Prediction:
L-Block - 46.12%
Teemo - 34.36%
Palutena - 19.52%



Crew Consensus: Still shaped like a boot, still kicking ass
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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