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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

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#101 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 8/3/2013 7:02:56 AM | message detail
Well at least I was smart enough to bank and only lose one point in this match instead of 6...
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#102 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/3/2013 7:40:52 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...

That last point isn't really true anymore. Skyward Sword won G4's Best Game of 2011 contest, but got destroyed by Skyrim here.


Maybe people here simply care way more about old games than new games. Being the best game of 2011 isn't enough to be considered better than most old games.
#103 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 7:58:06 AM | message detail
I thought the whole crew would side with Groose.Nice.
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#104 | FantasyFreak999 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:27:06 AM | message detail
Glad I went with my gut feeling that Groose couldn't capitalize on his Zelda role, but at the same time, I thought that he'd at least beat Lu Bu.
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3DS FC: 3265-5634-7751
#105 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 9:49:55 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...

That last point isn't really true anymore. Skyward Sword won G4's Best Game of 2011 contest, but got destroyed by Skyrim here.


Maybe people here simply care way more about old games than new games. Being the best game of 2011 isn't enough to be considered better than most old games.


Also, I've heard an alarming number of fans of the series state that Skyward Sword is the weakest 3D Zelda. The comments section for a recent SupraDarky video illustrates that point nicely.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#106 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:53:27 AM | message detail
1 hours
Still no crew prediction?
#107 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/3/2013 10:04:45 AM | message detail
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 52 – (3) Lee Everett vs. (16) Meat Boy vs. (25) Mr. Game and Watch

Moltar’s Analysis

Lee
Clem foretold your end

Meat Boy
where's meat girl

Game and Watch
b-air all throughout this match and win

My bracket is weird. For half the matches I expected icons/older characters to beat weak and new unknowns), (Jak [if not for league fans], Spyro), but it other cases I didn't because who knows (Crash, this match).

Anyway, it's perfectly clear that GameFAQs won't vote for characters they don't know, which translates to most things that only came out in the last few years. That means Lee is screwed, if you didn't already get that from Clem getting bodied by Spyro. Meat Boy isn't worth much either from what we've seen in the past, but that still might be worth more than Lee.

G&W has Smash behind him, and that's all he'll really need here because GameFAQs actually played those games.

Moltar’s Prediction: Lee: 28% - Meat Boy: 31% - Mr. Game and Watch: 41%



Lopen’s Analysis

Smash Bros Character vs generic looking human guy from indie game vs hunk of meat from indie game

Okay okay why was this match being debated? I mean Clementine I could at least have seen cause it's friggin Spyro but Game & Watch vs the indie cred crew? Seriously?

On the plus side you don't need to worry, racism conspiracy theorists, black men will have well over 70% of the poll here. In an upset I think the weird looking meat thing takes second by merit of being a weird looking meat thing and the meat not being black. Who else will GameFAKKKs vote for here?

Lopen's prediction:
Mr. Game & Watch - 52.49%
Meat Thing - 25.05%
Lee Everett - 22.46%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve got Lee winning here, but I have no confidence in this pick after seeing Clementine get rocked by Spyro the friggin’ Dragon. I don’t expect Game & Watch to be that strong, but being in Melee and Brawl should be enough to get him the win here. Meat Boy could win by virtue of having no skin in a match featuring two black characters, so watch out!

Leonhart’s Vote: Mr. Game & Watch

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Mr. Game & Watch – 44.00%
Lee Everett – 30.00%
Meat Boy – 26.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I have no idea how this match is going to go, nor do I really care! I have Lee in my bracket and I kinda regret that now, but honestly I'd regret having any of these three at the moment. Mr. Game & Watch is from Brawl and kinda silly, while Meat Boy is just kinda silly. Perhaps if Meat Boy was from Brawl this could be close.

Kleenex's Prediction
Lee with 30.00%
Meat Boy with 32.00%
Game & Watch with 38.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#108 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/3/2013 10:04:49 AM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

Lee Everett is awesome. He's probably my favourite character of this generation. Unfortunately for his chances, he is also a black man, trying to overcome a ten year history of black men underperforming like hell in GameFAQs contests. Carl Johnson is the pinup for this category and Barret Wallace is the most recent casualty, not even doubling Professor Layton even though Vincent Valentine would have taken a gigantic white man dump on his face. NOT TO MENTION THAT HE'S OPTIONAL WHY STOP VOTING VINCENT

Anyway, Lee's got history against him so he probably doesn't win. His opponent is Mr. G-

Mr. Ga-

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120802010813/ssb/images/8/87/Mr._Game_%26_Watch%28Clear%29.png

Mr. Game a-

http://th06.deviantart.net/fs51/200H/f/2009/334/5/3/Mr_Game_and_Watch_by_CollegeMisfits.png

OH MY GOD IT'S LITERALLY NOTHING BUT BLACK

HE DOESN'T EVEN HAVE EYEBALLS TO OFFSET ANY OF HIS BLACKNESS

WHAT DO WE DO? VOTE FOR THE THIRD CHARACTER? OH GOD HE'S FROM AN XBLA/INDIE PC GAME! THOSE NEVER WIN EITHER!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

transience's prediction: Lee Everett with 2%, Mr. Game and Watch with 1%, Meat Boy with 0%



KP's Analysis

Lee Everett is going to lose and you should all be deeply ashamed of yourselves. That's all I'm saying about this one.

MGAW - 38%
Lee - 34%
Meat Boy - 28%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

RacistFAQs strikes again? Possibly, although all three of these guys are “characters of color”, and the one who seems to be the favorite to win is literally black! Meat Boy’s only past performance came in Rivalry Rumble, which means we don’t have any X-stat values to use for him because Rivalry Rumble X-stats are completely useless, but his opponents are complete newcomers so I’m not sure what X-stats would do anyway. That performance was pretty damn good, though, so I don’t expect him to roll over…although now that I think about it, he might’ve had some joke appeal there, which won’t play as well with the similarly ridiculous-looking Game & Watch in the poll (also, his partner in Rivalry Rumble would’ve no doubt added to the joke appeal.)

Actually, looking back at the analysis for that match, I’m almost sure there was joke appeal involved. The Zidane/Kuja vs. Meat Boy/Fetus match went up with no picture, and then when the picture arrived, Meat Boy and Fetus went from losing 70-30 to losing 65-35. Granted Zidane and Kuja also had an awful match pic, but looking silly in the match pic probably helped Meat Boy more than his name did.

Prediction:
Lee Everett 26.7%
Meat Boy 25.9%
Mr. Game and Watch 47.4%



Crew Consensus: Game and Win
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#109 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/3/2013 10:06:09 AM | message detail
also I saw earlier that War send his Sora/Scorp/Aya analysis through the PM system

PLEASE DON'T DO THIS because I will most likely end up missing it
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#110 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 10:08:42 AM | message detail
#111 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 10:09:44 AM | message detail
Man what kind of warped world do I live in where Mr. Game & Watch is the favorite to win a match? Well I'm playing his stage's music from Melee to set the tone.

For now. Last time the crew favored a character wearing black, said character ended up in last place!
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#112 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/3/2013 10:13:57 AM | message detail
Master Moltar posted...
transience's prediction: Lee Everett with 2%, Mr. Game and Watch with 1%, Meat Boy with 0%


Best.
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#113 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:46:14 AM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis is amazing
Now i'm glad I picked Lee in my bracket
#114 | transience | Posted 8/3/2013 10:55:52 AM | message detail
you probably won't be in five minutes!
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xyzzy
#115 | transience | Posted 8/3/2013 11:00:53 AM | message detail
like I said!
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xyzzy
#116 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/3/2013 11:01:19 AM | message detail
This is legitimately the worst
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#117 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/3/2013 11:01:23 AM | message detail
this is gross
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#118 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:02:10 AM | message detail
#119 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/3/2013 11:14:35 AM | message detail
this website
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F*** BT
#120 | transience | Posted 8/3/2013 11:32:21 AM | message detail
#121 | transience | Posted 8/3/2013 11:38:06 AM | message detail
this is probably over, but given the crazy pro-Nintendo early vote I won't count Lee out
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xyzzy
#122 | FantasyFreak999 | Posted 8/3/2013 12:51:21 PM | message detail
I'm really hoping that Lee can close the 300 vote gap.
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#123 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 1:06:24 PM | message detail
Wow this match is a lot closer than I expected. I'd be shocked if Lee made a match out of this, much less won. Given that G&W is winning by more in the US and Canada than he is the poll right now it seems pretty unlikely.
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#124 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 1:28:10 PM | message detail
As always Americans have bad taste.
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#125 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/3/2013 8:07:52 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5191
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5192

Crew Predictions - 47/50

What Happened: Sora does not disappoint against Scorp, and Gilgamesh breaks out another good showing for old Square

What will Happen: Sora still looking good for R2



Crew Prediction Challenge - predict booker and wipe away a point

Kleenex - 47
Moltar - 46
KP - 46
Leon - 44
Tran - 42
Guest - 41
Lopen - 39

Crew Expert Challenge - kleenex growing his lead

Kleenex - 39
Tran - 37
KP - 37
Moltar - 36
Leon - 36
Guest - 31
Lopen - 29


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets Sora, Moltar and KP get Scorp, Leon gets Aya, KP gets Booker and Gilgamesh, and Leon and KP get Kaim

Moltar - 34
Leon - 26
Tran - 25
Lopen - 24
Kleenex - 21
KP - 19
Guest - 17 (Kuza, Kotetsu (2), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy, PaulG (4), Bane, Chris, lefty (2))
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#126 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/3/2013 8:11:45 PM | message detail
kleenex growing his lead

not for long
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#127 | th3l3fty | Posted 8/3/2013 8:37:21 PM | message detail
wow war way to rob guest of a POINT
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#128 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:38:46 PM | message detail
#129 | th3l3fty | Posted 8/3/2013 8:40:01 PM | message detail
it wasn't even your point he stole it was the sora point
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#130 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:16:05 PM | message detail
Oh right, it was Tsunami who would've stolen the Aya point from me, not you.
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#131 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/3/2013 10:14:09 PM | message detail
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 53 – (4) Nathan Drake vs. (15) Steve vs. (24) Pac-Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Drake
Lara won her match so it's looking good for her genderswap, right?

Steve
Is he related to Matt?

Pac-Man
Hey I've heard of this character before *vote*

Regarding Pac-Man and Minecraft, the masses know these games and their characters, but don't necessarily care for them, which doesn't help them in a contest match unless their opponent is an unknown or weak (or both). In Steve's case though, I highly, highly doubt people care about a random Minecraft dude as much as they care about the game itself. He'll take a distant last.

As for Pac vs. Drake...I took Drake in my bracket because he should be stronger and more known now with Uncharted getting bigger since 2010. However, with newer characters bombing to popular/iconic/well-known/mainstream characters in pretty much every case this contest, that makes it really hard to go against Pac-Man here.

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on me again. Fool me five more times and fine I'll switch over.

Moltar’s Prediction: Drake: 40% - Steve: 15% - Pac-Man: 45%



Lopen’s Analysis

We all know Pac-Man's schtick by now. He looks like a boss until he comes across an iconic guy a lot of people know, hits him with that rad old school SFF, and then folds like wet paper. I foolishly picked Drake when I was making the bracket-- more credence to the "drunk while bracketmaking" theory but I digress.

Drake will not be winning this. He's just not big enough to take Pac-Man's old school vote away yet. He may never be. I'm not sure any character from this gen is. I think Pac-Man would give strangely close matches to the likes of Kratos and Dante, honestly. He really needs a RESPECT character to exploit his weaknesses.

I guess, if you really want, you could argue the mess of pixels over there hurts Pac-Man more but I don't want to get into that.

Lopen's prediction:
Pac-Man - 45.21%
Nathan Drake - 38.07%
Pixel Block Thing - 16.72%



Leonhart’s Analysis

This is a “get over the hump” match for Nathan Drake here. If he can’t beat Pac-Man, he’ll probably never be worth anything in these contests. I know he lost to The Boss back in 2010, but I’d take The Boss over Pac-Man. In fact, instead of making The Boss our new fodder line, we should make Pac-Man our new fodder line. If you can’t beat Pac-Man (who basically beats people simply because he’s Pac-Man and he’s more well known, not necessarily because he’s that well liked), you’re probably not worth much in these contests. And before anyone says “Well, what about Ocelot?!” …What about him? Dude’s never been that good! He probably beats Pac-Man now though, so that point is likely moot. But I feel pretty good about Drake here. The Playstation 3 is stronger here now than it’s ever been before, and Uncharted is probably its biggest exclusive franchise this gen. Also, if you’re going to forego giving a guy a last name, you should probably give him a more interesting name than “Steve.” Who’s going to be drawn to that?

Leonhart’s Vote: Nathan Drake

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Nathan Drake – 46.00%
Pac-Man – 38.50%
Steve – 16.50%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#132 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/3/2013 10:14:14 PM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

I really don't know what to think about this match. A month or so, I was reasonably sure Drake would be able to win the match. He's come a long way in the past three years as a "household" name, and he probably wouldn't lose to The Boss today if that match were rerun. Pac-Man is the quintessential "everyone knows who he is but he crumples to anyone with a hint of popularity" guy.

And then there's Steve. Minecraft isn't super well-liked on GameFAQs, but once I saw that match picture I got worried.

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5195.jpg

Seriously, look at this. If there was ever a perfect storm of variables for a joke-ish entrant to win, this is it. He's got a ridiculous picture, he's up against two characters that would be easy to rally against because not too many people feel strongly about them, and his name is Steve.

Brace yourself for SteveFAQs.

Kleenex's Prediction
Drake with 34.00%
Steve with 40.00%
Pac-Man with 26.00%



Transience’s Analysis

I guess this match is all about Nathan Drake. Is he well known and respected enough to beat a bright yellow smiling ball? Cause that's all that Pac-Man is, just a universally recognizable wakka wakka wakka.

But then you look at the rest of the contest. Booker lost a recurring joke boss character, Lee and Clementine lost to literal nobodies, Big Daddy lost to not-all-that-likable Tales character, Kerrigan lost to a dog and Mordin/Niko lost to a horse. Given the rest of this contest, why would I trust a character created in the past decade without an actual reason? And there's no damn reason to think Nathan "generic" Drake is anything but that.

transience's prediction: Pac-Man with 46%, Nathan Drake with 40%, STEVE with 14%



KP's Analysis

I was a lot more worried about this match before I saw The Boss completely armbar her group. Makes Drake look better, retroactively! He should also be at least a little stronger than he was then, Uncharted is definitely bigger now than it was back in 2010. He could still lose to Pac-man, but I *think* he's got enough clout to survive this sort of matchup nowadays. People like Drake too, which helps against Pac-man, because absolutely no one actually likes Pac-man.

Drake - 44%
Pac - 42%
Steve - 14%



Guest’s Analysis - Dr Football

Half of GameFAQS has never played MineCraft, and I'm pretty sure no one cares about Steve, he is a distant 3rd, and I would wager one of the 10-20 weakest characters in the bracket.

Nathan Drake sucks. He sucks so much he lost to CATS. If 2008 was our first ever contest, after he loses this match the board might have come up with Nathan Drake Never Wins. Lost as a 2 seed and is gonna lose as a 4 seed.

Pac-Man doesn't have the most impressive resume out there, but this exactly the kind of match he was born to win. No classic characters to get stomped by, no one with a established fan base.

Pac-Man wins this, and I think he wins it easily. I look forward to future embarrassing performances by Drake, its hilarious every time.

PAC-MAN - 50.87%
NDNW - 36.13%
Steve - 13%



Crew Consensus: Pac-Man eats up the competition.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#133 | transience | Posted 8/3/2013 10:16:39 PM | message detail
whoa a steve pick

a steve pick
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xyzzy
#134 | th3l3fty | Posted 8/3/2013 10:17:05 PM | message detail
Pac-Man is gonna wakka all over this match
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#135 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/3/2013 10:18:36 PM | message detail
Kleenex miscalculated - Steve is also subject to RacistFAQs
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#136 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 10:20:25 PM | message detail
Whew, for a minute there I was afraid we were going to have as many picks for Steve as for Drake!
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#137 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 10:21:23 PM | message detail
Also, I feel like we're retroactively making Pac-Man out to be better than he really is.

Dude lost to Lettuce Kefka.
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http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#138 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 10:22:56 PM | message detail
Kleenex going hardcore here

STEVE

Serious though I think Master Moltar kinda defeated that theory with his one liner blurb "Is he related to Matt?" We'll see I guess!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#139 | ZFS | Posted 8/3/2013 10:26:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, it does seem like people think a bit too highly of Pac-Man. He can take nobodies and characters people don't care about, but that's it, really. I guess it depends on if Uncharted's rise these past three years has mattered to GameFAQs. Drake is definitely more memorable and standout than the Lees and Bookers of the world, though.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#140 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/3/2013 10:27:09 PM | message detail
The default player is popularly known as Steve and is confirmed on the 'Profile' page near the section that allows you to change your skin, a name suggested by Notch as a joke,[1] and is intended to be a generic, genderless representation of a human being,[2] although the player's skin can be changed.

You can play hundreds of hours of Minecraft and not only not know who Steve is, but not know what your character's avatar looks like from the front.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#141 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 10:28:33 PM | message detail
Pac-Man beat Ocelot who I'd take over 2010 Nathan Drake. I suppose if he took that next step with UC3 or just UC becoming more known then he could take this just through raw strength. I think Pac-Man ends up looking good regardless, though. Like I said Pac really needs an old school icon to get embarrassed and Drake is not that.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#142 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 10:29:10 PM | message detail
I'd take Ocelot over Pac-Man in a rematch right now, so I don't know if that means anything.
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http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif
#143 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/3/2013 10:29:35 PM | message detail
I don't think I'd take 2005/6/whatever year it was Ocelot over 2010 Drake. It'd be close, regardless.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#144 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/3/2013 10:29:46 PM | message detail
bunch of Steve haters ITT
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#145 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:29:55 PM | message detail
I fee like this is Drake's test. If he doesn't win this match then he's condemned to be "a western character who was pretty close to being worth something in these contests" but if he can take out Pac-Man then I think he's achieved some level of note.
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#146 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 10:30:15 PM | message detail
And Drake doesn't need to embarrass Pac-Man to beat him! Drake is more likable than most generic dudes out there this gen anyway.
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http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif
#147 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 10:30:36 PM | message detail
I probably wouldn't but it was a 50/50 last match so it's certainly possible.

I definitely don't think he'd turn it into a 55/45 or anything though. Pac-Man would still keep that very close even if Ocelot came through this time.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#148 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 10:31:44 PM | message detail
Oh, I don't think Ocelot kills him or anything.

But Pac-Man is a good candidate for a fodder line for a reason.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
#149 | ZFS | Posted 8/3/2013 10:31:49 PM | message detail
It'd be kinda crazy to me to see Drake lose. Whatever he looks like, he's so different from all these other Western characters. He's not the cold, hard badass that's super serious all the time. You can get behind someone like Drake. He's the real draw of his games.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#150 | transience | Posted 8/3/2013 10:32:27 PM | message detail
it doesn't matter how likable he is, he's still a generic dude

name me a generic dude who has impressed in a contest. the only thing I can think of is Shepard but he's an outlier for a reason.
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xyzzy
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