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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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#301 | transcience | Posted 7/29/2013 10:09:53 PM | message detail
lefty the king of taking everything literally

though I did have this in near-doubling territory until I had that pesky need everything to equal 100% dilemma
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#302 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/29/2013 10:14:57 PM | message detail
hey now don't try to give me Luster's title
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I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#303 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:17:43 PM | message detail
I will be voting for Kat today

I don't know why the fanbase even likes Yu so much honestly. I like P4 but who cares about Yu.
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#304 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:22:43 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I will be voting for Kat today

I don't know why the fanbase even likes Yu so much honestly. I like P4 but who cares about Yu.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYaGw_HUVHA

He's like this or better throughout the entire anime and the fighting game. No surprise the fanbase likes him!
#305 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:37:40 PM | message detail
Haha that's kinda amazing. I may just vote Yu after that

They really did take a lot of creative liberties with him but I can't complain. If that character came through in the game it would've been much better!
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#306 | FFDragon | Posted 7/29/2013 10:39:42 PM | message detail
I've never heard of Yu so I can only assume he'll get like 20% of the vote.

But that would put Shadow at getting like 70% and that's somehow even more ridiculous.
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#307 | pjbasis | Posted 7/29/2013 10:44:31 PM | message detail
whoa johnny young bosch
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#308 | transcience | Posted 7/29/2013 10:47:57 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
I've never heard of Yu so I can only assume he'll get like 20% of the vote.

But that would put Shadow at getting like 70% and that's somehow even more ridiculous.


this is this whole contest in a nutshell. we need round 2.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#309 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:57:02 PM | message detail
Yu's probably more mainstream than half of the guys in r1 <_<
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#310 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 7/29/2013 11:03:58 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how anybody got the idea that Yu could've won this. Say what you want about Shadow but he isn't weaker than characters from a game that is known to produce fodder characters.
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#311 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 11:09:24 PM | message detail | (edited)
This really isn't looking like a terrible upset pick right now. Yu's doing really well here. If trends continue as they looked past the first minute this match could be really close.
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#312 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/29/2013 11:22:09 PM | message detail
th3l3fty posted...
hey now don't try to give me Luster's title


XD at lefty.
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#313 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 12:44:15 AM | message detail
Okay trends didn't continue so this upset pick does in fact look bad.

I still think Kat is hurting Yu way more than Shadow here. Hold this match 1v1 and I bet Yu breaks 45%.
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#314 | transience | Posted 7/30/2013 5:46:45 AM | message detail
...what?
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xyzzy
#315 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 7:28:39 AM | message detail
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 44 – (4) Leon Kennedy vs. (15) Albert Wesker vs. (24) Oliver

Moltar’s Analysis

Leon
It's like I'm really

Wesker
playing Resident Evil

Oliver
and then there's this guy

Poor RE fans. Yeah, they get Leon to win a match, but it's as Wesker's expense. To put their strength in perspective, Leon's a few steps behind Ryu, while Wesker is even with (but can't beat) Ken. If you've been on GameFAQs for a while, you would know that's quite the difference in strength.

Since then, Wesker has had MvC3 while Leon has had RE6 and...eh, enough rambling, More RE fans are going to vote their RE4 hero over the RE bad guy just like more people are going to vote for Mario over Bowser.

Oliver probably does okay since Ni no Kuni was well-received, and he's the only non-RE option here.

Moltar’s Prediction: Leon: 54% - Wesker: 27% - Oliver: 19%



Lopen’s Analysis

I actually think this match will be our first evidence that rSFF legit exists. There's a big gap between Wesker and Leon but I think this match will make it look much smaller. Were it a less popular character like Jill Valentine or Chris Redfield I'd take Wesker easily, but Leon should have enough in him to hold it off. It's not like Leon's an unpopular character.

Ni no Kuni seems GameFAQs type of game but Oliver does not seem like a GameFAQs type of character, so I don't expect he'll do much here. Even a fairly weak Wesker in a SFF match should be able to beat him pretty comfortably I think... though maybe less so if you think Wesker sucks down the SFF like most villains would.

Lopen's prediction:
Leon Kennedy - 40.54%
Wesker - 36.95%
Oliver - 22.51%



Leonhart’s Analysis

What a terrible setup this is. Why does this match even exist? This is going to be the most boring match of the contest. At the very least, if you want to pull this crap, put someone in the match who has a chance of beating Leon who wouldn’t be able to beat him under normal circumstances, like, say, Knuckles. I really don’t get Bacon’s mindset on putting two characters from the same series in the same match. All I can figure is that he doesn’t really understand how LFF works and that it makes for really boring matches. Also, Wesker’s only win is still failing to get 60% on Luca Blight in the Villains Contest.

Leonhart’s Vote: Leon Kennedy

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Leon Kennedy – 57.00%
Albert Wesker – 35.00%
Oliver – 8.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

LOL Wesker

Kleenex's Prediction
Leon with 62.00%
Wesker with 23.00%
Oliver with 15.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
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#316 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 7:29:00 AM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

Doesn't it seem like Wesker is a much bigger deal than Leon these days? I know he's not going to win here but he's gone from being doubled by Kefka to being pretty damn respectable. Meanwhile, Leon is part of the disasterrific RE6 while I can't get away from Wesker in MVC3. The percentages of this match are pretty unpredictable but the result is obvious: Leon first, Wesker second, some kid named Oliver third. It seems like he should do well since he's the only non-RE character but then you look at him and realize oh.

transience's prediction: Leon with 52%, Wesker with 36%, Oliver with 12%



KP's Analysis

Albert Wesker is still looking for that win that isn't against Luca Blight. Best he can hope for here is not to get SFFd by Leon too badly. As for Oliver...a stronger character might have been able to take advantage of this kind of fanbase split. Oliver will not.

Leon - 55%
Wesker - 33%
Oliver - 12%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane_Of_Despair

Well this is my first analysis, so picking a match that had 2 characters of the same franchise and a newcomer seems like an interesting choice. But I think I can safely say this:

It’s Leon. Leon S. Kennedy. Hero of Resident Evil 2 and Resident Evil 4, both regarded constantly as the best games in the Resident Evil series. He has proven himself in past contests, cue example Summer 2007 contest. And for those worried about Wesker being in the group, SFF’ing Leon, I wouldn’t put too much on it. I have great faith in Leon to kill it here.

This is now a race of, between Oliver and Wesker, who will get 2nd place. Wesker has done fairly poorly in the past, with his first contest appearance in Spring 2005 beating Luca Blight, although that isn't anything to boast about, and then swiftly lost to Kefka, not even getting 30% on him. Combined with the trending opinion that he had outstayed his welcome in the Resident Evil series specifically with Resident Evil 5, things don’t bode too well for him.

Oliver is a newcomer that could prove to be intriguing. The main character of the popular PS3 game Ni No Kuni, the Studio Ghibli-inspired game was very well received and noted by some critics as a grand return of JRPG’s. However the problem therein lies with that statement: JRPG. As popular as they can be here, other than Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei it is very hard to break free of the niche to get enough support, especially against a series like Resident Evil. And in this case, I feel like it will once again fade in obscurity and Wesker will take 2nd. BUT. It could be close.

Bane’s Prediction:
Leon S. Kennedy - 59% Albert Wesker - 22% Oliver - 19%



Crew Consensus: The RE hero wins
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Moltar Status: Crew
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#317 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 8:37:18 AM | message detail
you guys have too much faith in wesker!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#318 | LeonhartFone | Posted 7/30/2013 9:25:06 AM | message detail
Oh right, next division is coming up

Better get working on my writeups
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#319 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 12:00:48 PM | message detail
Well, you did have too much faith in Wesker I guess, but uhh.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#320 | Bane_Of_Despair | Posted 7/30/2013 1:52:46 PM | message detail
Wow, for a little while before this match I thought I would be the only one to over-estimate Leon.....glad I wasn't alone! =D
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#321 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 2:33:23 PM | message detail
transience posted...
...what?


Kat did two things:

1. Absorbed Shadow anti-votes
2. Absorbed "design votes" that Yu would get over Shadow.

I'm not saying it's some sorta SFF match but I do think multiway polls help Shadow and there's a lot more in common with Kat and Yu than Kat and Shadow.
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#322 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 9:06:49 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5183
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5184

Crew Predictions - 39/42

What Happened: Squirtle wins easy, and Zidane shows that he's still strong enough to take out Ridley

What will Happen: Dante/Squirtle/Zidane still looking pretty interesting



Crew Prediction Challenge - everyone look under your seats

Kleenex - 39
Moltar - 39
KP - 39
Tran - 36
Leon - 36
Guest - 35
Lopen - 33

Crew Expert Challenge - free points! free points for everybody!

Tran - 33
Kleenex - 33
KP - 32
Moltar - 31
Leon - 30
Guest - 27
Lopen - 25


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets Squirtle, Moltar and Kleenex get Ramza, KP gets Denton, Moltar gets Dancin', Lopen gets Zidane, Kleenex gets Ridley

Moltar - 29
Leon - 21
Lopen - 21
Kleenex - 21
Tran - 19
KP - 14
Guest - 12 (Kuza, Kotetsu (2), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy, PaulG (3))
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Moltar Status: Crew
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#323 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 9:08:08 PM | message detail
moltar's accuracy lead is TOO BIG
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#324 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 9:08:46 PM | message detail
All those ties

The fans know I remain the true champion
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#325 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/30/2013 9:09:20 PM | message detail
Accuracy Challenge is for chumps

That's what I'm telling myself
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#326 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/30/2013 9:10:46 PM | message detail
yeah who needs to be accurate when your job is to be as accurate as possible
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#327 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 9:11:31 PM | message detail
being right has never been a pre-requisite to being on the crew
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#328 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/30/2013 9:13:12 PM | message detail
It's okay we still have like 100 matches left

Plenty of time to catch up
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#329 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/30/2013 9:13:26 PM | message detail
well yeah I mean AKJ was on crew before
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#330 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 9:13:30 PM | message detail
Who said that was our job I think I missed that memo
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#331 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/30/2013 9:15:14 PM | message detail
well the primary job is to be entertaining

so Lopen is the true crew champion (although ALL CAPS TRANSIENCE is giving you a run for your money)
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#332 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 9:16:36 PM | message detail
Flash in the pan that gimmick

I shall endure. Or adapt

Who wants some all italics write-ups
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#333 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 9:18:11 PM | message detail
alternating italics/bold/caps/spoilers writeups

might as well go all the way

oh Yeah
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#334 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/30/2013 9:18:30 PM | message detail
BOLTALIC ALL CAPS OR BUST

CAN YOU HANDLE IT

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#335 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 9:19:04 PM | message detail
you know, I really should make better use of spoiler tags in my writeups

hmm
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#336 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/30/2013 9:19:06 PM | message detail
what about DOUBLE BOLD

(is this even a thing in VanillaFAQs I dunno)
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#337 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/30/2013 9:19:07 PM | message detail
My writeups will be composed entirely of Otacon memeface images
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#338 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 9:21:31 PM | message detail
Speaking of entertainment, I wish I'd seen today's match pic before sending in my write-up. My write-up won't have nearly the same amount of realistic kicking and karate chopping action without it... and it surely won't have as many points of articulation :(
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#339 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 9:23:20 PM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
moltar's accuracy lead is TOO BIG


i want it to match my oracle lead
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#340 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 9:23:49 PM | message detail
It's okay, we're used to you not having many points.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#341 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/30/2013 9:24:04 PM | message detail
Moltar the only time an oracle lead is TOO BIG is when the contest is over

people can always come back

always
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#342 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/30/2013 9:24:05 PM | message detail
maybe I should bring back haiku or embarrassing confessions
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#343 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/30/2013 9:24:51 PM | message detail
KP literally less accurate by a wide margin than tranny

shameful, my friend
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#344 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/30/2013 9:26:28 PM | message detail
KP barely beating Guest with all its upset specials
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#345 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 9:51:44 PM | message detail
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 45 – (7) Gordon Freeman vs. (12) Hades vs. (21) Simon Belmont

Moltar’s Analysis

Gordon
Remember when he never won?

Hades
With a name that generic, he could be from like 10 different games

Simon
Can he follow in the footsteps of Dracula and Alucard?

Gordon is a midcarder, Simon's high fodder, Hades will be beneath both. Not much else to say here.

something something

CAPS

another line to make this seem longer

and post

Moltar’s Prediction: Gordon: 47% - Hades: 17% - Simon: 36%



Lopen’s Analysis

Let's go back a few years. Let's go back to 2002. Some things were held sacred. Vote totals were low, women with nice racks did well, and Gordon Freeman sucked. Gordon Freeman sucked so badly he lost to an entrant that was entirely a rack. No one on this site actually plays Dead or Alive. Even the small fighting game fanbase here reviles it.

In 03 and 04, yeah he lost against high fodder then too... but man, wasn't it a lot less humiliating those two years? The reason GFNW exists is (or at least, should be) primarily because of Tina Armstrong. When did that happen, 2002. What is this year like? 2002.

What I'm proposing here is two things. 1. Gordon Freeman's strength increase wasn't all or even mostly HL2... it was a combination of HL2 and increased vote totals. 2. Gordon Freeman isn't that good even with those things in his favor in matches that aren't 4 ways... a three way should help, but will it be enough? 3. SIMON BELMONT IS AN ICON GO NOSTALGIA BOOST. ... wait that was three things.

With point 2, keep in mind post HL2 boost post site shift to increased votals Gordon Freeman nearly lost to Peach. The guy still sucks to some extent even with good votals, and I think this year we see the return of a good old fashioned tradition. GFNW. All hail.

Lopen's prediction:
Simon Belmont - 41.00%
Gourdon Pumpkin Head Freeman - 40.12%
Hades - 18.88%



Leonhart’s Analysis

You know, Gordon Freeman has never placed first in a multi-way poll. He advanced past the first round in 2007 and 2008, but always in second place and always somehow easily beating the guy who got first place when they met up again in the second round. So could we see the same thing happen here?!

Eh, probably not. These aren’t the guys to do it. Simon Belmont put up a respectable 40% on Ezio in 2010, but that match has always smelled fishy to me. It doesn’t line up at all with any of his other performances. Plus, Ezio was a brand new guy with a really strange name at that time, so that may have had something to do with it. And unless the voters think this Hades is the dude from Hercules and he gets some sort of Kingdom Hearts Factor, I can’t see him doing well. I think Gordon probably ends up looking bad here because it’s been so long since HL2 and fans are getting increasingly frustrated about the complete lack of news about HL3, but I’d be kinda surprised if he lost.

Leonhart’s Vote: Gordon Freeman

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Gordon Freeman – 46.00%
Simon Belmont – 36.00%
Hades – 18.00%
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#346 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 9:51:54 PM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

What a world we live in when it's not weird for Gordon to be the favorite in a match, especially when Simon Belmont is exactly the kind of character he would have lost to back in the day.

Wait, what's that? That joke isn't funny anymore? Its been 7 years since Gordon lost in round 1 of a contest to a weak opponent? Hades isn't going to get any votes?

Oh.

Kleenex's Prediction
Gordon with 48.00%
Hades with 19.00%
Simon with 33.00%



Transience’s Analysis

GORDON BEATS SIMON EASILY, SIMON BEATS HADES EASILY. THIS COULD BE THE MOST BORING MATCH OF THE CONTEST UNLESS PEOPLE RANDOM VOTE FOR HADES DUE TO PURE APATHY.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: GORDON WITH 51%, SIMON WITH 32%, HADES WITH 17%



KP's Analysis

I feel really weird about this match. You've got GFNW, Hades from a 3DS-exclusive game, and Simon Belmont who did surprisingly good on Ezio in 2010. I think Gordon takes this easily, but if he flops I wouldn't be too surprised. He's the kind of character that really needs recency to survive, and Half-Life 3 is beyond overdue. Hades vs. Simon I could see going either way, I don't expect any of the Uprising characters to be worth anything but his name is literally Hades. I'll be siding with Simon because I don't think people will latch onto a Hades they don't know anything about - the name 'Belmont' holds more weight here, I think.

Gordon - 42%
Simon - 33%
Hades - 25%



Guest’s Analysis - PaulG

The days of Gordon Freeman never winning to the likes of Tina Armstrong, Max Payne and Sam FIsher are long gone. Since holding up well to a post-RE4 Leon and actually winning a match against Phoenix, his stock in these battles have gone up and he has shown us that he has some contest strength. Coming close to upsetting Scorpion early on in Round 1 of 2008 has suggested Gordon can and will win matches against other low-midcarders, such as Peach in 2010.

His path this year seems to be pretty set in stone this year, though. Beat two scrubs here, then take 2nd place against Leon and Shadow. Simon Belmont will never amount to anything other than high fodder unless he ever stars in another highly acclaimed Castlevania game. Hades will be lucky to even break 20% here.

Gordon Freeman - 45.24%
Hades - 21.83%
Simon Belmont - 32.93%



Crew Consensus: Gordon Freeman Usually Wins (these days)
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#347 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/30/2013 9:54:37 PM | message detail
Moltar really mailed that one in, huh

thank god we live in a world where GF can actually win matches now
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F*** BT
#348 | Janus5000 | Posted 7/30/2013 9:58:25 PM | message detail
maybe I've just been away from this board for too long but when did transience discover capital letters
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#349 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/30/2013 9:59:41 PM | message detail
how dare you show your face in here
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#350 | Lopen | Posted 7/30/2013 10:00:35 PM | message detail
Fools! Freeman is finished! You'll all see! The time warp back to the year 2002 will not be stopped...
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