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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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#201 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 10:46:48 PM | message detail
Lucario level is pushing it!
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xyzzy
#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 10:48:35 PM | message detail
I said at best!

Lugia's probably one of the best known non-Gen 1 Pokemon though. There aren't many of those I know, and most of them are because of Smash or seeing them in this contest, but I know who Lugia is.

Not that it means anything and I hope Pokemon crashes and burns, but still, I'd be kinda surprised if Sly Cooper was the most well known entity in this match.
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif
#203 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/27/2013 10:49:30 PM | message detail
York for first

Steam greenlight boost
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#204 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 10:56:02 PM | message detail
you're probably right. oh well
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xyzzy
#205 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/27/2013 11:03:33 PM | message detail
this is the worst
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#206 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 11:04:09 PM | message detail
York under 10% in what is probably going to be his best time.

Yikes.
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http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif
#207 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 11:05:31 PM | message detail
yikes

Lugia to beat Link
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xyzzy
#208 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/27/2013 11:06:56 PM | message detail
oh dear
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#209 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/27/2013 11:08:11 PM | message detail
Tranny is underestimating pokeFEAR.

Seriously, this is the same series that many believe will take down Crono and Megaman on round 2.
#210 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 11:09:01 PM | message detail
I have Lugia in my bracket
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xyzzy
#211 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 11:23:06 PM | message detail
So does Sly Cooper beat Handsome Jack or Viewtiful Joe?
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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg
#212 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/27/2013 11:55:20 PM | message detail
Wow, I didn't realize everyone else had Francis so low. I can't be the only one that thought Lugia was going to be just above the fodder line.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#213 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/27/2013 11:55:54 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
So does Sly Cooper beat Handsome Jack or Viewtiful Joe?


No and no

And Jack/Joe would triple Francis
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#214 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 11:57:19 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Wow, I didn't realize everyone else had Francis so low. I can't be the only one that thought Lugia was going to be just above the fodder line.


This performance doesn't really do anything to dissuade that notion!
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#215 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:10:25 AM | message detail
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 40 – (2) Dante vs. (17) Laharl vs. (26) Raz

Moltar’s Analysis

Dante
He has seen better days

Laharl
Because he just couldn't get enough of losing to Dante in multi-way polls

Raz
Obligatory 3rd place character comment

The only thing potentially interesting here is to see if DmC had any (read: negative) effect on Dante. The last time he fought Laharl, he tripled him. Laharl does seem a bit stronger now with Disgaea getting its name out there a bit more, but Dante should still be able to win big here.

If not then Squirtle is going to have some fun next round.

Moltar’s Prediction: Dante: 62% - Laharl: 28% - Raz: 10%



Lopen’s Analysis

DANTEEE SAMAAAA~~~ YOU HAVE RETURNED~

Okay, I dunno, maybe it's just me, being a contest dork, but seeing Dante with his badass white hair swords guns demon powerz here makes me happy. Like, just knowing what the pic could've been I'm happy to see the old Dante back.

I think other voters will feel the same to some extent. I expect a Dante boost for this contest, out of people feeling nostalgic for old Dante. Of course, he's also very scary to predict because the moment some troll sends enough DmC pics and some troll admin picks one, all bets are off.

There is of course the opposite theory, that DmC Dante has tainted the image of DMC Dante. I don't think most DMC fans actually feel that way, though. It sounds like propaganda by people who don't actually understand the hubbub in the look change or Dante's appeal in the first place.

Oh, there are also two losers here. Laharl is less of a loser so he should be okay to take second.

Lopen's prediction:
THE DANTE SPARDA!?!?! - 68.55%
Laharl - 22.09%
Raz - 9.36%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Dante is the king of blowing out fodder. He already got 50% in a 4-way match with Laharl once before, and Raz is way weaker than Ramza and Hogger. In fact, Raz is even weaker than I remember him being! I looked it up, and he got doubled by Crash and tripled by Nightmare in 2008! I don’t know if DmC will have any sort of negative impact on Dante’s strength overall, but it shouldn’t show up in this match because nobody cares about these other two guys. Unless he gets a Donte pic, and then uhhhh...I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Laharl wins…!

Leonhart’s Vote: Dante

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Dante – 62.00%
Laharl – 24.00%
Raz – 14.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#216 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:10:29 AM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

This is the kind of poll Dante should excel at. She's a cool looking character in a poll with a bunch of dudes no one cares about, and he doesn't attract the anti-votes that the top tier guys do (for as long as he doesn't get Donte pics, anyway). Raz has shown that he's not really worth anything at all, getting doubled by contest juggernaut Crash Bandicoot. Laharl definitely has a (small) fanbase, but his only ever win has come at the expense of yet another powerhouse in Neku Sakuraba.

So yeah, this should be pretty clear-cut. Dante way out ahead, Laharl way back in second, and lol Raz. Maybe he could start a kickstarter to get some votes.

Kleenex's Prediction
Dante with 62.00%
Laharl with 24.00%
Raz with 14.00%



Transience’s Analysis

I HAD NO IDEA LAHARL AND RAZ WERE IN THIS CONTEST UNTIL TODAY

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: DANTE WITH 68%, LAHARL WITH 22%, RAZ WITH 10%



KP's Analysis

Dante beats up fodder like he always does. Laharl beats worse fodder. This match will tell us absolutely nothing about Dante vs. Squirtle unless he tanks.

Dante - 58%
Laharl - 24%
Raz - 18%



Crew Consensus: Dante's throwing a crazy party
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#217 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/28/2013 10:13:43 AM | message detail
damnit Leon
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#218 | paulg235 | Posted 7/28/2013 11:00:10 AM | message detail
Guest write-up emmergency

Dante wins.

Dante - 60%
Laharl - 24.5%
Raz - 14.5%
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#219 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 11:01:21 AM | message detail
10 seconds late but i'll take it!
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#220 | paulg235 | Posted 7/28/2013 11:02:43 AM | message detail
I would've posted my oracle instead, but I only had like 20 seconds to respond.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#221 | transience | Posted 7/28/2013 11:06:15 AM | message detail
dante sux
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xyzzy
#222 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/28/2013 11:16:46 AM | message detail
With that update, Dante sucks less now.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#223 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/28/2013 11:24:14 AM | message detail
dante is an ff7 character confirmed
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#224 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 11:56:52 AM | message detail
more guest spots available

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66843874
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#225 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 12:04:42 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5177
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5178

Crew Predictions - 35/38

What Happened: Cloud and Frog won in pretty uninteresting matches

What will Happen: Cloud will beat Frog next round in an uninteresting match



Crew Prediction Challenge - easy points

Kleenex - 35
Moltar - 35
KP - 35
Tran - 33
Leon - 32
Guest - 31
Lopen - 29

Crew Expert Challenge - darn you joe

Tran - 30
Kleenex - 29
KP - 28
Moltar - 27
Leon - 26
Guest - 23
Lopen - 22


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon and Tran get Cloud, Moltar and Tran get Armstrong, Moltar gets Prinny, Tran gets Jack, Leon gets Frog, LMS gets Joe

Moltar - 24
Lopen - 20
Kleenex - 19
Leon - 21
Tran - 18
KP - 13
Guest - 9 (Kuza, Kotetsu (2), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS (2), Nintendoboy)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#226 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 12:05:09 PM | message detail
Dante's always had FFVII trends I don't really get it either.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#227 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/28/2013 12:06:17 PM | message detail
Yeah I don't get it.I mean who doesn't like Dante?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#228 | redrocket | Posted 7/28/2013 12:22:38 PM | message detail
He's up against Laharl's board vote.
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It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest
#229 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/28/2013 12:25:37 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Yep, it happened again.

LMS has now done two guest analyses and has come away with one of the accuracy points both times.


I did a third one as well, although I failed to get an accuracy point. However I doubt that I'll do anymore.

Kinda feel like this site was ruining my attitude towards gaming, so I'll be visiting much less from now on. I hope.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#230 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 12:48:30 PM | message detail
I'm in 2nd in the Accuracy Challenge and Moltar refuses to adjust me up to it!

Also, this is my 2nd "Exact same prediction as someone else" of the season!

can that be a category too so I can win something
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http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif
#231 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 7:00:42 PM | message detail
No one on Board 8 has actually played Dante's games, so yeah his board vote has always been awful.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#232 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/28/2013 7:03:13 PM | message detail
I like how the emergency percentages might sweep the match

good work paulg
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#233 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:33:10 PM | message detail
Emergency percentages got to see ours first and hedge his percentages right in the middle of the ranges!

GAMING THE SYSTEM!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#234 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/28/2013 9:54:18 PM | message detail
no worse than all these people with their hideous WHOLE NUMBER PERCENTAGES
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#235 | transience | Posted 7/28/2013 9:55:02 PM | message detail
I did percentages until I realized that I had to think about matching them to 100 twice a day for like three months

zzz
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xyzzy
#236 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:03:09 PM | message detail
Man it's not even that hard you guys

Step 1 - add percentages to 100
Step 2 - subtract 1 from somebody and pick 3 numbers that add to 100 that look cool.

I think y'all are just tryin to DAMAGE CONTROL now that you got called out for gaming the system !
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#237 | transience | Posted 7/28/2013 10:04:24 PM | message detail
I thought we were all over caring about the accuracy challenge
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xyzzy
#238 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:04:32 PM | message detail
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 41 – (5) Squirtle vs. (14) Ramza Beoulve vs. (23) JC Denton

Moltar’s Analysis

Squirtle
Bulbasaur is better

Ramza
First Dante and Laharl, now Ramza. At least Hogger didn't make it.

Denton
Apparently Mario didn't kick his ass hard enough back in 2004

Ramza seems to be decent, but always gets put against opponents he has no shot against. This trend continues with the 1st generation Pokemon named Squirtle. We've seen Charizard tear up the bracket before, and while Squirtle won't be as strong, GameFAQs does love it some Pokemon. I think it's going to be decent, solid midcard even.

Like the previous match, it'll be interesting to see how high it can go here since beating Dante isn't completely out of the question next round.

Moltar’s Prediction: Squirtle: 57% - Ramza: 28% - Denton: 15%



Lopen’s Analysis


Uhhh... yeah, Squirtle'll probably do fine, but let's keep our expectations in check here. I don't expect Charizard level stuff out of him or even Pikachu level stuff out of him. Even though he's adorbs as the teenage girls say, he's not a badass and he's an evolutionary stepping stone. Blastoise would probably be stronger.

In fact I think Ramza gives him more of a scare than he has any right to. Squirtle'll probably be closeish to Jigglypuff tier-- a bit stronger cause he won't get anti-voted, but yeah, that is what it is. He's still a threat to beat Dante next round due to DmC trolling, but against Dante classic he should be soundly defeated, I think.

But yo, Squirtle was in BRAWL, yo! Ehhh. He's 1/4 of an unpopular character. Shouldn't matter too much.

I hope people make some topics about how JC Denton is not losing by enough. That would amuse me greatly. Get on it, loyal readers.

Lopen's prediction:
Squirtle - 43.09%
Ramza - 39.12%
JC Denton - 17.79%



Leonhart’s Analysis

NRT winners are 2-0 so far, and Squirtle should maintain that unbeaten streak! This match should actually give us an idea of what to expect from him next round against Dante, who faced Laharl, who went 50/50 with Ramza in 2008, who just so happens to be in this match! I’m not saying it’ll be a perfect predictor or anything, but if Squirtle does noticeably better or worse on Ramza than Dante does on Laharl, it could give us a good idea of how that round 2 match will go. And if Ramza actually loses to JC Denton here, I will be very depressed.

Leonhart’s Vote: Ramza Beoulve

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Squirtle – 56.00%
Ramza Beoulve – 27.00%
JC Denton – 17.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#239 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:04:43 PM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

The blasted Pokemon are back. While I'm normally pretty vitriolic towards them, this will probably be a rare exception as Squirtle is actually my favorite of the accursed creatures. And he should probably win pretty handily here, because Ramza can barely go toe-to-toe with Laharl and JC Denton is a guy from a 15 year old PC game (aka when people didn't play PC games). How much Squirtle destroys this poll could mean things for the next round, but he'd have to really, really impress for me to even consider that.

Then again, the Pokemon have been pretty impressive so far.

Kleenex's Prediction
Squirtle with 53.00%
Ramza with 28.00%
JC with 19.00%



Transience’s Analysis

Discuss amongst yourselves: who's got a tougher fourpack, Dante (Laharl and Raz) or Squirtle (Ramza and Denton?) Ramza and Laharl proved to be equal a few years ago, and Denton and Raz are probably a tossup. I just want to get this out of the way before people see Squirtle equal Dante's performance despite it taking place during Squirtle's worst time. Oh, and the round 2 match will be during the day - not really a disadvantage for Dante, but definitely a positive for Squirtle.

transience's prediction: Squirtle with 58%, Ramza with 25%, Denton with 17%



Guest’s Analysis - t_kizzle

It’s time for our strongest Pokemon newcomer, and in a contest where so much rides on Pokemon’s performance this is a match to watch. Now, Squirtle is one of the most beloved of all Pocket Monsters: Ash had one who played an important role in the anime, he’s one of the original starters, and he’s a generally appealing turtle dude who’s hard to dislike. He doesn’t have the iconic status of Pikachu or the sheer fan-favorite badass status as Charizard, but he is somewhere in the middle. Seeing as every Pokemon fan is familiar with him his absolute floor should be low mid-carder, but I see him going much higher. Either way it's more than enough to win this match.

Ramza is the only character here with recent contest history, but unfortunately for him it’s bad. He’s clearly fodder and has had zero exposure (to my knowledge) since his last contest appearance where he was 60/40’d easily by Riku. Squirtle’s potential strength in the right range to beat Riku and I say he would do it no problem, so the turtle’s primed to smack Ramza around.

Denton will be bad.

Despite the night match probably hurting Squirtle a bit he’s aiming to outperform Dante and get the upset hype rolling, which given approximately equal competition he should do. Also, Lugia almost got up to 60% on a weaker bunch than this at night and Squirtle really has to be above him.


Squirtle- 62%
Ramza- 24%
Denton- 14%



Crew Consensus: Squirtle uses Hydro Pump and it's super effective
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#240 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:06:53 PM | message detail
tranny, these are threepacks!
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#241 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 10:07:00 PM | message detail
Sent in my prediction 1 minute ago, sorry bout that. Here:

(5) Squirtle
(14) Ramza Beoulve
(23) JC Denton

JC Denton is going to get destroyed. Not even fans of Deus Ex care about that guy. Ramza's not gonna do that much better, he seems to get weaker every year, unfortunately. Squirtle probably looks amazing going into Round 2.

Squirtle - 62%
Ramza - 27%
Denton - 11%
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#242 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:07:17 PM | message detail
Day matches with no ASV isn't really an advantage for day-oriented characters this year. Trends have been dead for day matches this year.
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http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg
#243 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 10:10:27 PM | message detail | (edited)
Huh. Didn't expect those Denton %s. Looking it up, he did a little better than I remembered, but I don't know. I've basically never seen anyone express anything other than apathy for him, including diehard Deus Ex fans.

Whatever, if he does better than I expected Squirtle looks worse so I can't complain.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#244 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/28/2013 10:30:26 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Man it's not even that hard you guys

Step 1 - add percentages to 100
Step 2 - subtract 1 from somebody and pick 3 numbers that add to 100 that look cool.

I think y'all are just tryin to DAMAGE CONTROL now that you got called out for gaming the system !


Except paulg's percentages don't add up to 100. That's what would make the sweep so embarrassing for you guys--literally being swept by someone whose percentages only added up to 99.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#245 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/28/2013 10:31:58 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
tranny, these are threepacks!


He's been doing this all contest. You're not stopping him now.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#246 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/28/2013 10:36:20 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Day matches with no ASV isn't really an advantage for day-oriented characters this year. Trends have been dead for day matches this year.


There have been some day matches this year with clear SNV trends (Proto Man as an example), but no matches with actual ASV trends yet. We'll be somewhere around the middle of round 2 when we start to transition back to normal ASV trends again. And the 24-hour matches will take place after we have gotten back to normal ASV trends.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#247 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:37:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, Protoman cutting 250 votes at night.

What a swing that was.
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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png
#248 | transience | Posted 7/28/2013 11:01:37 PM | message detail
sorry, force of habit/apathy

sucks for y'all who think Dante's winning next round
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xyzzy
#249 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 11:02:43 PM | message detail
Not really. Squirtle vs. Ramza is going as expected. There's just a lot of extra % to throw around because JC Denton blows
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#250 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 11:07:34 PM | message detail
Well I thought Squirtle was gonna suck (relatively speaking, anyway)! "Whoops"

Still think Dante looks better than Squirtle here assuming Ramza gains more from now till the end, though. Ramza and Laharl are pretty close.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
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