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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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#151 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/26/2013 9:27:52 PM | message detail
I had the highest % huh

Isaac and Tingle probably beat Prinny and Armstrong
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#152 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:29:12 PM | message detail
Cloud sub-50% crew curse confirmed
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#153 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/26/2013 10:13:48 PM | message detail
How long does it take for characters from a popular game to get off the ground? Kid Icarus Uprising came out last year. I'm honestly kind of surprised that Hades and Palutena are even in this thing.
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#154 | transience | Posted 7/26/2013 10:18:57 PM | message detail
there's 243 characters in this thing. someone has to get in
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xyzzy
#155 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/26/2013 10:21:12 PM | message detail
And somehow, Palutena got in over Viridi. Kind of a downer.
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Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
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#156 | LOZLTTP | Posted 7/26/2013 11:35:10 PM | message detail
oh wow kefka was enough of an upset to put me on the leaderboard

nice
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#157 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/27/2013 1:11:39 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5175
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5176

Crew Predictions - 33/36

What Happened: Lara wins easy, and Kefka surprises a lot of people by beating Zack and Ryu H. Old Square continues to look good!

What will Happen: Altair/Lara/Kefka looking pretty debatable. Kefka might have turned into the favorite there.



Crew Prediction Challenge - *kefka laugh*

Kleenex - 33
Moltar - 33
KP - 33
Tran - 31
Leon - 30
Guest - 29
Lopen - 27

Crew Expert Challenge - *laughing intensifies*

Tran - 28
Kleenex - 28
KP - 27
Moltar - 26
Leon - 25
Guest - 22
Lopen - 20


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets Lara, Moltar gets Slime and Kefka, Tran gets Yuri and Zack, Moltar and Leon get Ryu H

Moltar - 22
Lopen - 20
Kleenex - 19
Leon - 19
Tran - 15
KP - 13
Guest - 8 (Kuza, Kotetsu (2), Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS, Nintendoboy)
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Moltar Status: Crew
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#158 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/27/2013 1:16:18 AM | message detail
Ryu>Zack>Kefka worth more than Zack>Ryu>Kefka. Seems legit to me.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#159 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 4:48:04 AM | message detail
#160 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 5:42:33 AM | message detail
LOL whoops just realized I did bad math on my percentages

I was wondering how I came close on both Cloud and Prinny and yet I'm so far off on Armstrong's percentage!

Always double check your work, kids
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#161 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/27/2013 6:08:50 AM | message detail
I know I probably shouldn't be, but I'm fairly impressed with Cloud today.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#162 | Lopen | Posted 7/27/2013 6:21:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
I would be more impressed if Armstrong did better. I thought he'd be a little stronger than this. Against a high fodder and a turbo fodder this is about. "okay" for me.. Enough that you can't really use it to promote the FFVII IS DYIN, CLOUD thought process anyway.
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No problem!
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#163 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/27/2013 6:39:19 AM | message detail
Yeah I don't think this is like "look out Link!" or anything. But it feels kinda like "hey I'm still probably #2 guys".
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#164 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/27/2013 6:45:16 AM | message detail
I really wish the final could be Link-Cloud-Snake, that could be interesting. Of course he had to give Mario a path to the final though (although that's also good because it's the only possible chance of Link at least being up for debate to lose).
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#165 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/27/2013 6:46:59 AM | message detail
I insist that the contest was set up in order for Link to lose.I mean Link and Mario to the finals is a lock.Then either Cloud or Snake will get there.Since Nintendo fanbase will be divided Cloud or Snake can take advantage.
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#166 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/27/2013 6:51:34 AM | message detail
Yeah, that may have been the intended purpose. It's too bad Cloud-Snake got ruined by having another Square character in the match with them (unless Pikachu can pull it off). That Cloud SFF may have been with intent as well, but I'd like to see Cloud and Snake matched up in a fair fight again.
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#167 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/27/2013 6:56:40 AM | message detail
I just realized, have we really not had Mario and Cloud against each other since 2002? I'd like to see a fair fight between those two at this time.
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#168 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/27/2013 7:50:13 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I would be more impressed if Armstrong did better. I thought he'd be a little stronger than this. Against a high fodder and a turbo fodder this is about. "okay" for me.. Enough that you can't really use it to promote the FFVII IS DYIN, CLOUD thought process anyway.


Only 71% on Prinny isn't okay. This literally projects Cloud to get like 64% on IKE.

On a side note, this makes Ridley's 2010 match against Cloud look super-fraudulent.
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#169 | Achromatic | Posted 7/27/2013 7:56:34 AM | message detail
Cloud is at 73% on Prinny, and given Cloud's horrific power hour I don't think that's too horrible.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#170 | transcience | Posted 7/27/2013 8:12:15 AM | message detail
I don't think this is very good at all, unless you want to give Cloud credit for antivotes. Sonic and Mega Man did about this on similarish competition. I'm not sure these round one matches matter at all though.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#171 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 7/27/2013 9:18:44 AM | message detail
DpObliVion posted...
I just realized, have we really not had Mario and Cloud against each other since 2002? I'd like to see a fair fight between those two at this time.


People have been asking for this for years. I was hoping Bacon would give in this year, remove Link from the bracket, and have a standard 1v1 with Mario and Cloud in the finals, but that didn't happen. Maybe for the next one.
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#172 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/27/2013 10:05:56 AM | message detail
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 38 – (6) Handsome Jack vs. (13) Frog vs. (22) Viewtiful Joe

Moltar’s Analysis

Jack
Handsome? Nah

Frog
Frog isn't going to excite us this year

Joe
Viewtiful? Yeah

Well this is a group. We know Frog and Joe, and Frog beats Joe. We've seen some Borderlands characters and they've lost to characters like Tharja and Yuri Lowell.

Frog wouldn't lose to those characters, and I doubt Jack is significantly stronger. Jack probably beats Joe though...maybe.

Moltar’s Prediction: Jack: 29% - Frog: 47% - Joe: 24%



Lopen’s Analysis

Man, Viewtiful Joe looks badass there. I really want to take this upset now, especially seeing how far Frog's fallen over the years. Joe probably hasn't aged entirely gracefully either but I do think that his match in 2007 was a bad beat for him, and that Marvel 3 may help rejuvenate him a bit. He's going to be weak but he's not that weak.

That being said, if you have any doubts on a Frog match, always pick Frog. He's like the John McClane of video game character popularity contests... you know, if John McClane was a scummy cheat. I think Frog's going to have his hands full, though. Much like his win record, he'll also always "find a way" to make a close match, and this is the one right here. If only Joe were a more popular pick in Marvel 3...

Handsome Jack should be a little stronger than Tina, but not much. It shouldn't be enough to be relevant in this match, in any case.

Lopen's prediction:
Frog - 36.06%
Viewtiful Joe - 35.88%
Handsome Jack - 28.06%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I don’t know anything about Handsome Jack, but I don’t think I need to for this match. I know CT has fallen off over the years, but Frog for some reason seems to have held up better than Crono and Magus have. Regardless of how much he’s dropped off since 2010, I can’t imagine some dude named Handsome Jack from Borderlands 2 beating him. He probably gets second though because Viewtiful Joe has been dead and irrelevant for years. Not sure if Frog’s performance says anything about CT’s chances in this contest going forward unless he totally bombs or totally kills this match though.

Leonhart’s Vote: Frog

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Frog – 49.00%
Handsome Jack – 28.00%
Viewtiful Joe – 23.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

We still don't really know where Borderlands characters stand even after seeing them twice already. Tina did better than expected against trash, and FACE MCSHOOTY was just kinda there. I think Handsome Jack probably stands to be the strongest of them with the potential exception of Claptrap. We also have no idea what Chrono Trigger characters are up to get. Frog hasn't quite had the same embarrassing results that Magus and Crono have recently. It's tough to peg him, but if I had to wager a guess I'd say he's still probably stronger than a Borderlands character. Joe showed up to the match to sit on the sidelines and enjoy watching the last second comeback by Frog [note that my prediction percentages do not necessarily reflect this].

Kleenex's Prediction
Jack with 33.00%
Frog with 43.00%
Joe with 24.00%
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#173 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/27/2013 10:06:12 AM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

I've been a little worried about Frog. Day match, Viewtiful Joe really isn't that much weaker, Frog's been sucking it up lately, etc. I think Kefka and Terra and Rydia doing pretty decently gives me a little bit of confidence, even during the day. The wildcard here is Jack, a guy that I can't even begin to gauge. He'll be better than Tina, I think, but I also feel like all these Borderlands guys aren't really the point of the game at all. I won't pretend to know anything about him though as I really don't. The 3 seed scares me a little bit, but I'll still back Frog just like everyone else.

transience's prediction: Frog with 43%, Viewtiful Joe with 35%, Jack with 22%



KP's Analysis

Given Tina's performance, I'm a bit worried about Handsome Jack winning this. He's the only thing vaguely representing a legitimate character from Borderlands 2. With that said, Frog has seemingly resistsed Chrono Trigger's fall more than any of the other characters, so he should be good for the win here. Joe's great, but he desperately needs that sequel he's never getting to become anything more than entirely irrelevant.

Frog - 51%
Jack - 32%
Joe - 17%



Crew Consensus: Frog wins in an uncontroversial way
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#174 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/27/2013 10:15:30 AM | message detail
no guess? too busy to do one...
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#175 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/27/2013 10:18:45 AM | message detail | (edited)
Handsome Jack is faaaaaaar and away the best character in BL2 and I imagine the most popular, so sadly I'm gonna take him over my boy VJoe
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F*** BT
#176 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/27/2013 10:20:57 AM | message detail
Since I already posted an analysis of the match, I shall copy and paste it to this topic and claim the guest spot.

Kotetsu's Prediction

(6) Handsome Jack
(13) Frog
(22) Viewtiful Joe

And from one Old Square contest legend - Kefka - to another, Frog, CT's first entrant to participate in CBIX. Frog looked better than most expected in 2010 in getting 37% on Bowser - more or less equal with Kefka, incidentally.

Viewtiful Joe has one sort-of recent poll in his history and it involved getting double by the Prince of Persia so I'm just going to consign him to the "distant third with something around 20%" position that so many of our lower seeds have had to settle for.

Handsome Jack is a high-seeded Borderlands 2 character reflecting his apparent popularity with his fanbase. If Tiny Tina, someone who is apparently really unpopular, and Claptrap, who is a joke, can keep up with Tharja and avoid being doubled by Zidane respectively, then this guy should be able to do reasonably well against Frog. I'll ballpark him at something over 40% without him getting very close to winning, but this is essentially a guessing game - who knows, if Frog has continued to fall, he might be in with a shot at the win.

Frog - 44%
Handsome Jack - 35%
Viewtiful Joe - 21%
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#177 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 10:43:51 AM | message detail
people are backing Jack over Joe? this place is usually the last place to give new characters the beenfit of the doubt, so now I'm a little worried!
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xyzzy
#178 | Achromatic | Posted 7/27/2013 10:46:00 AM | message detail
transience posted...
people are backing Jack over Joe? this place is usually the last place to give new characters the beenfit of the doubt, so now I'm a little worried!


Handsome Jack is the main villain of Borderlands 2 and is by far the best character in the game. He has my vote over Frog.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#179 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/27/2013 10:46:40 AM | message detail
I think I claimed the guest spot for this match, but I couldn't remember which match I did so I refrained from doing it. The good news is that I did write an analysis for the match anyway, in my own thread.

Handsome Jack vs. Frog vs. Viewtiful Joe

This is probably the match where I get kicked off the leaderboard, as I have Handsome Jack winning. Handsome f**ing Jack. I think I just thought that SOMETHING from this site's 2012 GOTY had to have strength, and it's not like the other two characters have strength anyway. I'm supporting Frog in this match, but who the heck knows.

I don't even know who Handsome Jack is...asking my brother nets me the info that he's the main antagonist of Borderlands 2. Not sure what to think, time to look up more on him.

So I think he has more of a presence in Borderlands 2 than Frog does in Chrono Trigger. I've actually played CT myself, but it's been a REALLY long time so let's see what I can remember...Frog appears at one point very early in the game, then he disappears for a good while, then he reappears later and I think all his plot relevance disappears soon after.

In the end, I just can't see Frog pulling off the choke job like I predicted in my bracket. I think he'll be winning this one. Also huh Viewtiful Joe is here but he's probably getting last - he's only been falling into irrelevancy ever since his last contest appearance and I doubt that Marvel vs. Capcom 3 helps him.

Frog - 45%
Jack - 30%
Joe - 25%
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#180 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 11:15:05 AM | message detail
Joe holding up so far
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xyzzy
#181 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/27/2013 11:25:12 AM | message detail
I remember Jack getting a decent amount of press for being a well-written villain/character (he's not, but whatever). Also didn't expect Joe to do, well, anything.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#182 | Achromatic | Posted 7/27/2013 11:36:26 AM | message detail
Hell, what do we know.

(He is an amazing character, KP with the haterade)
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#183 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/27/2013 11:42:30 AM | message detail
Jack is pretty good, thought for sure he'd be better that Joe. Oh well.

Year Of Chrono Trigger
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#184 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/27/2013 12:32:59 PM | message detail
Huh. A little surprised only one person went over 50% with Frog. I mean Frog's not exactly a powerhouse but were we really expecting much out of the other two? Right now it looks like Frog point goes to either Leon or KP (at the moment it's leaning in Leon's direction but it could go either way; I doubt he'll fall far enough for it to transfer over to Moltar); Tranny's almost a lock for the Jack point as Jack would need to climb over 25% for it to go to someone else; and...LMS comes through again for team Guest? There's a full 10% difference between the second-highest Joe prediction (35%, by Tranny) and the third-highest (LMS's 25%). If Frog does pick it up, there isn't nearly so much margin of error for team Guest on the other side of 25% (Kleenex and Moltar both had 24% as their pick), but at 26.2% at the moment, there's a fairly nice cushion.
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#185 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 5:37:04 PM | message detail
Surprised people went so low on Frog here! This isn't good competition, CT deboost or not!
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#186 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 5:50:59 PM | message detail
Also, I didn't really like what I saw from Cloud. I expected it, but I don't like it. Snake certainly outdid him in round 1, but round 2 will tell us a lot more than this for both guys.
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#187 | Lopen | Posted 7/27/2013 6:32:54 PM | message detail
Frog squash huh. Pretty surprised!
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#188 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 7/27/2013 6:50:11 PM | message detail
Frog actually should've done a lot better based on his 2010 stats and Joe's 2007 stats. But if you use 07 Frog this looks about right.
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#189 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 6:53:55 PM | message detail
Eh, I wouldn't take Joe's 2007 stat at face value. Dude was in a poll with Sonic and Sub-Zero. Of course he's going to underperform.

You guys gotta stop taking these poll X-Stat comparisons from 6 years ago and across years so literally! I've made X-Stats for every contest since 2007 and even I don't do this!

"Cloud only tripled Prinny when he should've quadrupled him based on the 2010 stats!"

Time to jump aboard the Lugia > Cloud train!
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#190 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/27/2013 10:15:12 PM | message detail
Yep, it happened again.

LMS has now done two guest analyses and has come away with one of the accuracy points both times.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#191 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/27/2013 10:21:09 PM | message detail | (edited)
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 39 – (9) Sly Cooper vs. (10) Francis York Morgan vs. (19) Lugia

Moltar’s Analysis

Sly
Because old Sony characters are apparently in style these days

Francis
uh

Lugia
Ho-oh's better

No, Sly isn't going to benefit from the same thing Jak and Crash and Spyro and whoever else did. He'll get 2nd, but I'm not taking him over what should be one of the stronger Gold/Silver Pokemon. Sly has always looked terrible on this site (like can't even crack 10% in any poll kind of terrible). Lugia is popular and recognizable, and that basically wipes out most of Sly's advantages. Pokemon should be able to go big here.

Morgan gives me Caim vibes but apparently there's some recent meme with him so he'll probably get above 10%.

Moltar’s Prediction: Sly: 25% - Francis: 13% - Lugia: 62%



Lopen’s Analysis

I think Lugia's going to be the weakest Pokemon we've seen this side of Nidoran F, but you won't be able to tell from this match, not even a little. I'm going to guess that Sly Cooper, being a never was, is going to be denied the PS has-been boost we've been seeing. This guy let Sephiroth, anti-vote magnet, drop 86% on him, and was never seen again. He's going to be total garbage here, as no one cares about him at all.

Francis York Morgan will also be garbage, but for an entirely different reason. People like the guy, but no one's actually played his game. I think Lugia can push percentages low enough that he'll be able to squeak out the win, though.

Lopen's prediction:
Lugia - 70.03%
Francis York Morgan - 15.35%
Sly Cooper - 14.62%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I’m kinda sad Lugia got added to this match and essentially made it a non-debate because debating Sly/Francis before the entire bracket was revealed was kinda fun! Although based on what we’ve seen from 3-D platforming characters so far, Sly probably takes second here over York. Lugia should do fine here, despite not being a Gen 1 Pokemon. People know who Lugia is, which takes away Sly’s best chance of winning a random match. It’s what helped Spyro win. He was easily the most well known thing in his match. Not so much for Sly here, and Sly Cooper was never as big as some of these other 3-D platformer series anyway. I really don’t know what to think of York here. He’s probably weak, but Two Best Friends Play is in the middle of a Deadly Premonition LP as we speak, so it could have an impact!

Leonhart’s Vote: Francis York Morgan

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Lugia – 57.00%
Sly Cooper – 24.00%
Francis York Morgan – 19.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I have a bad feeling about this match. Do you feel it, Zach? My coffee warned me about it.

Okay Zach, I've been thinking about who I want to pick to win this match, and I've finally made a decision. It's always hard to narrow it down to just one winner, but I've put a lot of thought into this, and I'm sure you'll agree with me.

2000. Directed by Satoshi Tajiri himself. The grandfather of Game Freak. Set in a land just west of the original. That game made me stay away from RPGs for years. I was always afraid that random battles would come popping up. You know who I'm talking about, right? Yep, it's Lugia.

To recap, the other entrant just had his 4th sequel in the series that started in 2002. That's right, Zach, it was Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time. Sly Cooper was back, that alone made it must for fans. I don't remember much more about it though. I'm sure there was more trivia about. Still, forget Sly.

Let's just hope for a good showing. If not, they'll think we're weak. Don't what that, do we Zach?

Kleenex's Prediction
Sly with 36.00%
Agent Francis York Morgan with 16.00%
Lugia with 48.00%
#192 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/27/2013 10:21:27 PM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

SLY COOPER IS LIKE A FOURTH RATE PLATFORMING MASCOT-Y CHARACTER. YORK IS A KIND OF MODERN DAY MEME ON A WEBSITE THAT DOESN'T DO MODERN DAY. LUGIA IS A POKEMON FOR A SERIES THAT'S ABOUT TEN YEARS PAST ITS PRIME (AT LEAST FOR THE MASSES), AS EVIDENCED BY N ALMOST LOSING TO A WANDER.

SIMPLE QUESTION FOR THIS MATCH: IS LUGIA WELL KNOWN ENOUGH TO HANG WITH A CHARACTER NOBODY ACTUALLY CARES ABOUT? I'M GONNA SAY... NO. LUGIA IS BETTER THAN N BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTUAL POKEMON, BUT I THINK PEOPLE WILL VOTE FOR APATHY AND CHOOSE SLY. WHATEVER, REALLY.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: SLY WITH 45%, LUGIA WITH 40%, YORK WITH 15%



KP's Analysis

What's that, Zach? Two worse yet far more well-known characters are going to beat up on a defenseless obscure character? Sounds like we've entered the land of the savages. Best be careful. Two scars might make for a roguish appearance, but three would just be excessive, don't you agree?

Lugia - 52%
Sly - 32%
York - 16%



Guest’s Analysis - Black Turtle

Sly Cooper

Irrelevant Sony mascot # 5

Francis York Morgan

Obscure turbofodder # 30

Lugia

Pokemon #5

Analysis:

This is a pretty boring match. Boring characters, and what should be a very boring result. There is some debate between Sly and Lugia to win the match, but I think that Lugia being a Generation 2 legendary Pokemon should be enough to let him through. Pokemon characters are pretty much roughly ranked as Gen 1 Starters > Gen 1 Legendary > Pikachu > Gen 2 Legendary > Gen 2 Starters > rest of Gen 1 > Rest of everything else.

Some people are pointing to Crash, Ratchet, Jak and Spryo doing well as an excuse to take the upset, but for the most part they all beat characters from games with really low play rates on this site.

TuRtLe's Prediction:
Lugia 42%
Sly 36%
Francis 22%

TuRtLe's Bracket: Lugia

TuRtLe's Vote: Ugh



Crew Consensus: Lugia with a legendary victory.
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#193 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 10:25:12 PM | message detail
I don't know what tran's even doing anymore!
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#194 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/27/2013 10:26:02 PM | message detail
pulling a lopen
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#195 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/27/2013 10:32:45 PM | message detail
Um...go Morgan? BT calling him "obscure turbofodder #30" and then coming out with the high prediction by 3%. C'mon unexpected strength!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#196 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 10:34:49 PM | message detail
leading the expert challenge that's what
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xyzzy
#197 | th3l3fty | Posted 7/27/2013 10:39:40 PM | message detail
not for long at this rate!
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#198 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 10:40:03 PM | message detail
yeah probably

if I lose it on horses and pokemon, I'm cool with that
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xyzzy
#199 | transience | Posted 7/27/2013 10:42:19 PM | message detail
to be honest though I didn't even know I was wading into major upset waters

I'll be surprised if this thing gets 55%+ like you all are predicting
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xyzzy
#200 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 10:43:22 PM | message detail
I don't even think Lugia will be that good! Like, Lucario level at best.

But I'm with Lopen. Sly Cooper and York are just that bad. I wouldn't even categorize Sly as "well known." That series was never as big as Crash, Spyro, Jak, or R&C.
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http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif
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