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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

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#1 | Master Moltar | Posted 7/24/2013 9:38:52 PM | message detail
Hey everyone, itís Contest time again! That means the Contest Analysis Crew is back once again!

Our goal is to analyze and predict each match in this Contest, and of course, you will read the write-ups and laugh at us when weíre wrong. So without further ado, hereís the line-up for this Contest.

Master Moltar
Lopen
Leonhart
Kleenex
Transience
Newcomer: KamikazePotato
Guest

E-mail - mastermoltar@gmail.com

Current Guest List - In the case that no one signs up for a match, or the person that signed up for the match does not do their write-up before the match starts, the first non-Crew member analysis posted in the topic will become the official Guest for the match.

Epona/Mordin/Niko - Ultimaphazon
Shulk/Ratchet/Altair - Kotetsu534
Lara/Yuri H/Slime - Luis
Kefka/Zack/Ryu H - Ctes

Cloud/Armstrong/Prinny - Tsunami
Jack/Frog/Joe - LMS
Sly/Francis/Lugia - Black Turtle
Dante/Laharl/Raz - croy33
Squirtle/Ramza/Denton - t_kizzle
Dancin'/Zidane/Ridley - Korayashi
Yu/Shadow/Kat - Sir Chris
Leon/Wesker/Oliver - Bane_Of_Despair
Freeman/Hades/Simon - PaulG235


Moltar: Alright, now where am I? It looks like I've stumbled into a library or something.

???: Hey! What are you doing here?

Moltar: What the...who said tha-Hey! Don't throw books at me!

???: Huh? Oh you aren't Him. Sorry, it's been so long since I've seen another human.

Moltar: You mean...you've been captive here?

???: Yes! I've been waiting for someone to save me! Are you that person?

Moltar: Well, I am on a mission to predict the contest and save the girl, but-

???: That's me! That girl is me!

Moltar: Uh...(I've seen some girls in my time and this does not look or sound like a girl).

???: I am! Really! My name is Kam...KP. I'm KP, what's your name?

Moltar: (Okay he clearly was about to say a male name, but I'll just play along for now.) My name is Moltar.

KP: Moltar? It's nice to meet you! Oh, I'm so excited to talk with another human!

Moltar: So what are you doing here? Why are you being held captive?

KP: Allen locked me away. I'm...not your ordinary girl.

Moltar: (Yeah, I can definitely tell.)

KP: You see, I have this power...it's pretty crazy and you probably wouldn't believe me if I told you.

Moltar: (Of course I wouldn't believe something coming from the guy who says he's a girl!) Try me.

KP: Well I can...wait, what am I getting out of this?

Moltar: What do you mean what are you getting out of this? I'm rescuing you!

KP: Yeah but...I want something more than that. You don't realize how big of a deal this is...Wait, you said you were on a mission to predict the contest, right? Well, I can help you with that using my power!

Moltar: Really?

KP: Really!

Moltar: Ugh, I guess I have no choice but to go along. Fine, if you tell me your power...I don't know, I'll take you to Paris.

KP: Eww gross I don't want to go there.

Moltar: Why are you being so picky when I'm the one...fine, where do you want to go?

KP: Japan!

Moltar: Uh, okay. If you help me out, I'll get you out of here and take you to Japan when this is all over.

KP: It's a deal! Alright, I can...wait a minute, did you hear that?

Moltar: Huh? Oh...yeah, it sounds like a whistle.

KP: Oh no, this isn't good.

Moltar: Why? What's going on.

KP: It's coming...

Moltar: What's coming?

KP: Modbird

Moltar: Who's Modbird?

KP: Allen's personal pet and my jailkeeper. Quick, we've got to get out of here!

Moltar: Where are we going to go?

KP: Forward, of course!

Moltar: Of course...

*To Be Continued*
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#2 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/24/2013 9:52:03 PM | message detail
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 33 Ė (8) Epona vs. (11) Mordin Solus vs. (20) Niko Bellic

Moltarís Analysis

Epona
HORSE

Mordin
The Scientist Salarian himself

Niko
my cousin (not)

The years have not kind to GTA characters, and while Niko wasn't all that strong before, he's worth next to nothing now. Also see how Vercetti did a few days ago. Easy 3rd place.

Mordin is a liked squad member from Mass Effect, specifically 2 and 3, which is when GameFAQs took notice of the series. We already saw Garrus do fine, so Mordin probably won't bomb here. Still, he's got a big obstacle to overcome.

That obstacle is a horse. Link's horse, to be exact. Epona is a huge wildcard not only in this match, but in this contest. Almost everything Zelda has strength, and the reason why the Board got behind nominating Epona was to see how true that really is. She could fall anywhere between Ganon/Zelda level to Tingle, and I'm betting that she'll be in the middle at least.

In this match, being Link's horse makes her recognizable enough by the masses to get her the win. Mordin could put up a fight since ME players like him, but I don't think he's stronger than Garrus, and I wouldn't take either over Link's horse as sad as that sounds. Epona probably looks really good here too if Niko stinks it up.

Moltarís Prediction: Epona: 47% - Mordin: 35% - Niko: 18%



Lopenís Analysis

IT'S A HORSE.

I actually think Epona has a chance to win this, because just look at her dunce opponents, but she's still A HORSE. I think we've seen enough examples in these contests that fans of a series won't vote for just anything, and while Epona may be a lovable mount she's still just a mount. She's not going to hold onto votes vs any characters of note, especially with RAMPANT ZELDA ANTI-VOTING.

Whether these two are notable enough is the question. I think Mordin is able to squeak out a win, just barely. Garrus looked pretty good and I'm pretty sure most of his strength comes from the later Mass Effect games, so Mordin not being in ME1 shouldn't hurt him too much. Niko might dilute the casual vote a bit too, though after Vercetti I don't have faith in him to do it much.

You'll notice I have Niko slightly higher than Vercetti-- that's because I think it's may very well be the weaker pack and lacks the Crash type character to sponge the GTA votes. Regardless of who wins this they're cooked next round, in my estimation.

Lopen's prediction:
Mordin - 40%
IT'S A HORSE - 38%
Niko - 22%



Leonhartís Analysis

Weíve spent ten years debating the merits of a horse (Remember when we used to debate if Epona could beat Vyse or Bomberman?), and now itís finally time to see what Epona is worth. Can you sense the anticipation? Iím not really looking forward to this match because itís going to inspire lots of whining on the board because a horse from Zelda is beating a Mass Effect character and a GTA character, two fanbases that arenít above raging over what they perceive to be bad results.

I really donít know how strong I expect Epona to be, but I think sheíll at least not be fodder, which should be enough to win this one. While Garrus did very well for himself against Sub-Zero, I donít think Mordin will be very strong. Heís only playable in ME2, which is probably the strongest one, so it may cancel out. Plus, he has a very memorable role in ME3 despite not being playable. Yet my gut instinct tells me that Garrus will be the only squadmate with decent strength, so Iím just going to stop talking before I irrationally talk myself into picking Mordin out of fanboy bias.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#3 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/24/2013 9:52:28 PM | message detail
By the way, did any character disappear into complete obscurity faster than Niko did? He went from beating Kefka in a 4-way in 2008 to getting doubled by Jill Valentine in 2010. Well, I guess Marcus Fenix did. He went from beating Kefka twice with one of the most amazing day vote swings ever to losing to Rydia in the span of one year. Did you realize before right now that Marcus Fenix isnít in the contest this year? Didnít think so! Moral of the story: Donít beat Kefka in a multi-way poll, so good luck with that, Zack and Hayabusa.

Leonhartís Vote: Mordin Solus

Leonhartís Prediction:

Epona Ė 50.00%
Mordin Solus Ė 30.00%
Niko Bellic Ė 20.00%



Kleenexís Analysis

A horse is a horse, of course, of course.
And no one would vote for a horse, of course
That is, of course, unless the horse is from OoT.

Kleenex's Prediction
Epona with 38.00%
Mordin with 35.00%
Niko with 27.00%



Transienceís Analysis

IT'S A HORSE. A HORSE! A GODDAMN HORSE!

LOOK AT THE PICTURE! IT'S A JOKE! IT'S MEANT TO INSPIRE STUPID PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR IT! WE'RE SERIOUSLY TO THE POINT OF PUTTING ZELDA ANIMALS INTO A CONTEST MATCH. WE'VE HAD A LONG-RUNNING JOKE THAT A RANDOM PIECE OF FF7 FURNITURE WOULD BEAT HALF THE CHARACTERS IN THE BRACKET. THIS IS THAT STUPID ARGUMENT PERSONIFIED INTO A HORSE.

A HORSE! NEIGH NEIGH MOTHER****ERS I'M A HORSE VOTE EPONA

I bet most of the other analyses say something like "this is stupid, but who is going to beat it? Mordin? Niko? I have faith in Nintendo fans to rally around their stupid horse." They might even mention how it'll get joke votes as well as Nintendo votes, meaning that this stupid horse is worth like 247 Chesters which translates to like 134% on Link. Are they right? Yeah, probably. Am I picking it? NO

DEATH TO HORSEFAQS

transience's prediction: Mordin with 43%, HorseFAQs with 39%, Niko with 18%



KP's Analysis

The less said about this match, the better. Mordin is an unphotogenic Fan Favorite from Mass Effect, Niko is a GTA character in 2013, and Epona is a horse...from Ocarina of Time. I don't have much faith in any of them, but the hierarchy seems clear.

Epona - 45%
Mordin - 33%
Niko - 22%



Guestís Analysis - Ultimaphazon

Hi, this is Ultimaphazon, and here's my guest analysis for Epona/Mordin/Niko


Harrich must be really happy today. Thanks to his glorious STABLE, we now have a new Zelda character in these contests. Will Epona be on Ganondorf's level, or will she be closer to the Tingles of this world? The answer is probably somewhere in between. Are the Zelda fans really drone-ish enough to vote for a frickin' horse? I would hope not, but we'll see.

So yeah, this match is all about the contest debut of Link's trusty steed. But there are also 2 other characters in this match so let's talk about those for a bit. Shepard and Garrus did decently in their previous matches, and while Mordin will be weaker than Garrus, he should still have some decent strength. He doesn't need to be as strong as Garrus, because his known opponent is Niko Bellic. Niko's closest relative in these contests, Tommy Vercetti kinda embarrassed himself a few days ago, getting doubled by Crash! GTA V hype certainly isn't helping those old GTA protagonists at all, so we can safely assume that Niko will flop as well. So Mordin > Niko seems the obvious pick.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#4 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/24/2013 9:53:10 PM | message detail
Now let's get back to the horse; I wouldn't even be shocked if she finishes last in this match, but being from Zelda, neigh, from OoT, this site's favorite game, will probably guarantee her some strength. Is it enough to beat everyone's favorite Salarian scientist? Unfortunately, I'm thinking yes, but who really knows?

So, on to the percentages:

Epona: 42.51%
Mordin Solus: 38.95%
Niko Bellic: 18.54%




Crew Consensus: HORSE
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#5 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:55:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#6 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/24/2013 9:55:55 PM | message detail
I'm all for Mordin winning the match, but I don't trust this site to not vote for Zelda!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#7 | Kibago | Posted 7/24/2013 9:56:45 PM | message detail
HORSE gonna stomp past 50%
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#8 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:57:05 PM | message detail
This is all Harrich's fault
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#9 | transience | Posted 7/24/2013 9:59:07 PM | message detail
horsefaqs
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xyzzy
#10 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/24/2013 10:02:26 PM | message detail
A HORSE! NEIGH NEIGH MOTHER****ERS I'M A HORSE VOTE EPONA

You know how late at night everything is 10x funnier

this KILLED me

I am talking to you from the afterlife
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F*** BT
#11 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/24/2013 10:04:21 PM | message detail
Wow, everyone had Mordin over Niko. I guess if Niko still has the same strength he had in 2008, he could end up getting 2nd place here. Banking on Mordin getting 2nd place is risky as he's almost definitely going to be weaker than Garrus. Whether or not that's enough to lose to Niko is still up in the air.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#12 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/24/2013 10:11:10 PM | message detail
Tranny's Crew prediction is exactly equal to my Oracle prediction.

I'm not sure if that's a good thing for me (because as of the last update, he led the Crew Expert Challenge) or a bad one (because he's pretty far back in the accuracy challenge). It's definitely not a good thing for him, though--I suck at Oracle!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#13 | transience | Posted 7/24/2013 11:01:37 PM | message detail
worst minute ever
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xyzzy
#14 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 11:02:50 PM | message detail
GameFAQS, really?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#15 | pjbasis | Posted 7/24/2013 11:21:19 PM | message detail
Mordin and Niko are just too weak
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#16 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 7/24/2013 11:24:14 PM | message detail
well I didn't like Niko even when playing the game and I've never heard of the other dude so I sorta had to vote the horse by default!
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#17 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 11:24:59 PM | message detail
Wow, multiple people actually picked not-Epona.

Granted, if Garrus had been here instead, I'd have picked him in a heartbeat, but poor Mordin.

Also, I will begrudgingly concede that Epona probably beats Vyse.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg
#18 | ZFS | Posted 7/25/2013 1:30:02 AM | message detail
Epona a better option here than Mordin or Niko
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#19 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:31:33 AM | message detail
Oh man, I've got a decent shot at sweeping this match if these percentages stay relatively the same!
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http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif
#20 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 2:31:03 AM | message detail
Predix KP sweeps the match.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#21 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 2:32:28 AM | message detail
I almost swept last match! Darn you weirdos taking Ike not to win but still score 36%
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#22 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 2:35:01 AM | message detail
Don't blame us blame the site. Who likes Robotnik really
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#23 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 2:36:43 AM | message detail
They were obviously voting for the "Eggman" in his name. If he had had that back in 2005 he would've challenged Ganondorf.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#24 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 2:38:07 AM | message detail
Of course. Everyone was hungry and hadn't had breakfast yet. If only it were a night match...
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#25 | FantasyFreak999 | Posted 7/25/2013 5:14:57 AM | message detail
Ugh. Stupid horse. At this point I think random OoT villager #14 could have decent strength.
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3DS FC: 3265-5634-7751
#26 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 5:37:53 AM | message detail
It's not like Epona is only in OOT. Epona has been in two other Zelda games as well - and the three Zelda games it (screw using gender pronouns) appears in could potentially be the site's top three Zelda games. By now fans of the series probably do have a good amount of attachment to her.

Not sure if I do though.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#27 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 7:27:53 AM | message detail
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 34 Ė (3) Shulk vs. (16) Ratchet vs. (25) Altair

Moltarís Analysis

Shulk
I keep thinking She Hulk

Ratchet
Old PS platform characters have looked way too good this contest

Altair
Stealthily snuck into this match to win

I'm pretty sure after Dunban and Reyn, no one has any faith in Xenbolade characters anymore. Shulk is the main character, so of course he'll be the strongest, but with how Jak, Crash, and Spyro looked, he'll have the time of his life just trying to challenge Ratchet.

Speaking of Ratchet, he's not going to be like Jak, Crash, and Spyro because there is a recognizable character of strength here, and his name is Altair. He has beaten Liquid Snake and got 45% on Vivi, which puts him up in the midcard. That information alone is enough to know that he'll beat Ratchet and Shulk. There is a chance that he isn't as strong now as we've seen other more casual characters plummet in strength, but I doubt he's fallen fall enough to drop this match against fodder.

Ratchet will probably do decently like Jak, Crash, and Spyro did, but I'll be surprised if he can actually beat someone that people know and like.

Moltarís Prediction: Shulk: 20% - Ratchet: 35% - Altair: 45%



Lopenís Analysis

ASSASSINO ASSASSINO

Ratchet gets second because he's not from Xenoblade

Yup you can thank me later for these insights I'm here all season

Lopen's analysis:
Altair - 62.07%
Ratchet - 23.10%
Shulk - 14.83%



Leonhartís Analysis

Yikes, this could be the worst performance by a 3 seed since Gordon Freeman lost to Tina Armstrong. Weíve already seen two Xenoblade characters completely crap the bed, and Reyn had absolutely no excuse for his pathetic performance, considering the competition was Spyro and Clementine. Ratchet and Altair are stronger than either of those two. Shulk might be slightly stronger by virtue of being the main character, but heís still gonna get rocked here.

I really debated for a long time on taking Ratchet > Altair here, but I refrained from it because I figured it was just my fanboyism talking. However, I think Altairís strength is a bit overblown because he had two totally unexpected performances, first by destroying the Lucario/Isaac/Guybrush fourpack in 2008, and second by throwing down a 60/40 on Liquid Snake in 2010. But then he lost twice to Duke Nukem in 2008 and did worse against Vivi than Donkey Kong did, so his performances donít really seem to add up to me. Plus, in 2010, AC2 had just come out, so he was still the more established character between him and Ezio. Three years later, you can get a decent idea of which character is favored, with Ezio getting a 2 seed and Altair getting a 25 seed. I know seeding isnít always an indicator of strength, but itís not like AC fans have a wealth of guys to choose from for noms. Iím just saying Altairís probably dropped a bit in strength with Ezio becoming the established fan favorite since the last three years, and Connor sucking so much he couldnít even get enough noms to get added to the database probably just makes people think more fondly of Ezio.

All this coupled with the fact that Ratchet did pretty well in 2010 and Playstation mascot characters in general have been pretty impressive relative to expectations so far (although Altair is easily the best competition any of them has faced) really makes me want to pull the trigger here. Yeah, you know what? Why not? Letís do this.

Leonhartís Vote: Ratchet

Leonhartís Prediction:

Ratchet Ė 44.00%
Altair Ė 43.00%
Shulk Ė 13.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#28 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 7:28:22 AM | message detail
Kleenexís Analysis

I was afraid I took Shulk in my bracket as I was about to start writing up this match, but much to my relief I did not. After two Xenoblade characters laid a big fat one so far this contest, I have no confidence in Shulk to do any better. Sure he's the main character, but that doesn't matter much because we've already seen that people don't care about Xenoblade even when your opponents are Spyro and Clementine.

Ratchet and Altair are both kinda okay. I think they both have a decent shot at winning the match. The apparent SONY MASCOT BOOST would point towards Ratchet winning. I'm going to stick with my bracket pick of Altair because I think he looked better back in 2010 and he could just get Assassin's Creed Dude votes.

Kleenex's Prediction
Shulk with 19.00%
Ratchet with 38.00%
Altair with 43.00%



Transienceís Analysis

stupid horse

So, Ratchet vs Shulk was kind of a fun match until a.) Altair got announced and b.) Xenoblade decided to be about equal to what a Tales character would do. And I guess there's also c.) pointless non-Nintendo mascots seem to be doing pretty well, though I personally think that has more to do with their competition than anything else. Oh, and because Spyro got to go up against a Xenoblade character. Oh, hey.

Altair should win this, even though Assassin's Creed has probably seen a decline in general due to Ubisoft flooding the waters with mediocre games lately.

transience's prediction: Altair with 43%, Ratchet with 38%, Shulk with 19%



KP's Analysis

Shulk has a lot of reasons to do better here than his Xenobrethren. Main character, high seed, no RPG SFF, big ole' sword in the picture. With that said, I think he's out of his league here. Based on other mascot-y characters like Jak and Crash doing well and Ratchet's 'strong' 2010 showing, he should have 2nd place locked down here. I think Altair will have dropped since 2010 - he's completely worthless as a character and is no longer the big mascot he used to be. It's all about Ezio these days. Still, he'd have to drop quite a bit to lose to Ratchet, so I guess he should win here regardless.

Altair - 40%
Ratchet - 35%
Shulk - 25%



Guestís Analysis - Kotetsu534

Let's deal with the obvious: Shulk gets a distant third, likely somewhere around the 10%ish mark that Dunban and Reyn got. Xenoblade characters are extremely weak.

Now the real match: Ratchet, another formerly-fodderific Sony platformer mascot, and Altair, another somewhat recent western character who may or may not be falling in strength.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#29 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 7:28:59 AM | message detail
Altair's 2010 performance was all kinds of strange, when you look back on it. Many considered him one of the biggest stars of round one when he took a debatable match against Liquid Snake and ran away with it 60/40. Then he got blasted away by Vivi in round two without putting up the merest hint of a fight, who would go on to post 43% on Kirby, and he ended up looking... not necessarily weak, but much less impressive. The strangeness only continues in 2013 when Liquid Snake somehow fails to even make the bracket and Altair barely makes it in as a 25-seed. Granted, his 2-seed in 2010 was a result of nominations being held shortly after the launch of ACII, the best received game in its series, but that's an absolutely gigantic drop - from hundreds of casual nominators to barely double digits.

Ratchet was last seen getting 44% on Jecht, whose number on Zelda is a bit questionable thanks to falling on FFX's release day. If you take it all at face value, Ratchet would be expected to score 46% on Ezio,. Add in that Crash and Jak have actually looked less awful this contest, that Altair was probably always weaker than Ezio and has had little to no exposure since then, and that Assassin's Creed's name isn't what it was a couple of years ago, and you have to think Ratchet deserves to be given a chance here.

This is a really tough match for me to decide on. I think Altair looked a bit stronger than Ratchet in 2010. 44% on Vivi looks better than 44% on Jecht - I really can't see Vivi having quite so close a match with Phoenix Wright. But my gut is screaming at me that something is off with Altair. It's saying that he's not someone people ever really cared about and he's probably fallen in the past three years, and even in his prime he couldn't beat Duke Nukem. Screw it, give me the beaming bright yellow Sony mascot, next to the brooding hooded figure.

Ratchet - 45.5%; Altair - 44.5%; Shulk - 10%



Crew Consensus: Altair assassinates the competition
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#30 | transcience | Posted 7/25/2013 7:33:28 AM | message detail
nice numbers kleenex
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#31 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/25/2013 7:34:41 AM | message detail
they sure are
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#32 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 7:35:23 AM | message detail
I see I'm not the only one who thinks that Ratchet has a shot.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#33 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/25/2013 11:00:10 AM | message detail
Leonhartís Analysis

Yikes, this could be the worst performance by a 3 seed since Gordon Freeman lost to Tina Armstrong. Weíve already seen two Xenoblade characters completely crap the bed, and Reyn had absolutely no excuse for his pathetic performance, considering the competition was Spyro and Clementine. Ratchet and Altair are stronger than either of those two. Shulk might be slightly stronger by virtue of being the main character, but heís still gonna get rocked here.

I really debated for a long time on taking Ratchet > Altair here, but I refrained from it because I figured it was just my fanboyism talking. However, I think Altairís strength is a bit overblown because he had two totally unexpected performances, first by destroying the Lucario/Isaac/Guybrush fourpack in 2008, and second by throwing down a 60/40 on Liquid Snake in 2010. But then he lost twice to Duke Nukem in 2008 and did worse against Vivi than Donkey Kong did, so his performances donít really seem to add up to me. Plus, in 2010, AC2 had just come out, so he was still the more established character between him and Ezio. Three years later, you can get a decent idea of which character is favored, with Ezio getting a 2 seed and Altair getting a 25 seed. I know seeding isnít always an indicator of strength, but itís not like AC fans have a wealth of guys to choose from for noms. Iím just saying Altairís probably dropped a bit in strength with Ezio becoming the established fan favorite since the last three years, and Connor sucking so much he couldnít even get enough noms to get added to the database probably just makes people think more fondly of Ezio.

All this coupled with the fact that Ratchet did pretty well in 2010 and Playstation mascot characters in general have been pretty impressive relative to expectations so far (although Altair is easily the best competition any of them has faced) really makes me want to pull the trigger here. Yeah, you know what? Why not? Letís do this.

Leonhartís Vote: Ratchet

Leonhartís Prediction:

Ratchet Ė 44.00%
Altair Ė 43.00%
Shulk Ė 13.00%


A worse performance against Vivi than Donkey Kong did. Is that necessarily a bad thing? *checks* ...Huh, I guess it is. DK seriously has absolutely no noteworthy wins to speak of. About the best he's got is SFFing Marth, but look what Marth did this contest.

As for worst performance by a 3-seed since Gordon lost to Tina--yeah, that probably still is the worst because of how badly Tina got killed the next round, but it should be noted that in the 4x16 and 8x16 eras, only once has a 14-seed gotten 60% on a 3-seed, and it wasn't Tina against Gordon (though she came damn close). It was Big Daddy against Soap MacTavish.

But like I said, in the long run, Gordon's 40.03% against Tina is worse than Soap's 38.25% against Big Daddy because Big Daddy gt 39.55% against Tifa while Tina got 23.07% against Aeris.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#34 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/25/2013 11:00:10 AM | message detail
Leonhartís Analysis

Yikes, this could be the worst performance by a 3 seed since Gordon Freeman lost to Tina Armstrong. Weíve already seen two Xenoblade characters completely crap the bed, and Reyn had absolutely no excuse for his pathetic performance, considering the competition was Spyro and Clementine. Ratchet and Altair are stronger than either of those two. Shulk might be slightly stronger by virtue of being the main character, but heís still gonna get rocked here.

I really debated for a long time on taking Ratchet > Altair here, but I refrained from it because I figured it was just my fanboyism talking. However, I think Altairís strength is a bit overblown because he had two totally unexpected performances, first by destroying the Lucario/Isaac/Guybrush fourpack in 2008, and second by throwing down a 60/40 on Liquid Snake in 2010. But then he lost twice to Duke Nukem in 2008 and did worse against Vivi than Donkey Kong did, so his performances donít really seem to add up to me. Plus, in 2010, AC2 had just come out, so he was still the more established character between him and Ezio. Three years later, you can get a decent idea of which character is favored, with Ezio getting a 2 seed and Altair getting a 25 seed. I know seeding isnít always an indicator of strength, but itís not like AC fans have a wealth of guys to choose from for noms. Iím just saying Altairís probably dropped a bit in strength with Ezio becoming the established fan favorite since the last three years, and Connor sucking so much he couldnít even get enough noms to get added to the database probably just makes people think more fondly of Ezio.

All this coupled with the fact that Ratchet did pretty well in 2010 and Playstation mascot characters in general have been pretty impressive relative to expectations so far (although Altair is easily the best competition any of them has faced) really makes me want to pull the trigger here. Yeah, you know what? Why not? Letís do this.

Leonhartís Vote: Ratchet

Leonhartís Prediction:

Ratchet Ė 44.00%
Altair Ė 43.00%
Shulk Ė 13.00%


A worse performance against Vivi than Donkey Kong did. Is that necessarily a bad thing? *checks* ...Huh, I guess it is. DK seriously has absolutely no noteworthy wins to speak of. About the best he's got is SFFing Marth, but look what Marth did this contest.

As for worst performance by a 3-seed since Gordon lost to Tina--yeah, that probably still is the worst because of how badly Tina got killed the next round, but it should be noted that in the 4x16 and 8x16 eras, only once has a 14-seed gotten 60% on a 3-seed, and it wasn't Tina against Gordon (though she came damn close). It was Big Daddy against Soap MacTavish.

But like I said, in the long run, Gordon's 40.03% against Tina is worse than Soap's 38.25% against Big Daddy because Big Daddy gt 39.55% against Tifa while Tina got 23.07% against Aeris.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#35 | pjbasis | Posted 7/25/2013 11:57:58 AM | message detail
haw haw altair is awesome ratchet sux
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#36 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/25/2013 12:05:56 PM | message detail
Shulk impressing kinda?
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#37 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:16:42 PM | message detail
High seed and main character.Makes sense.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#38 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:08:43 PM | message detail
#39 | transcience | Posted 7/25/2013 1:18:02 PM | message detail
on the flipside, you picked a horse
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#40 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:21:27 PM | message detail
#41 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:21:43 PM | message detail
#42 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 1:25:52 PM | message detail
Huh Ratchet was tempting enough to be taken by two guys and apparently this match was thought to be close? Whoops!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:28:01 PM | message detail
Well, if I weren't a R&C fanboy, I'd have just taken Altair and been done with it.

Certainly wouldn't have gone with something ridiculous like 62% though...!
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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg
#44 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 1:30:38 PM | message detail
In a just world my percentages would get me all three points though I'll admit I perhaps didn't think this one all the way through...
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#45 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/25/2013 1:34:21 PM | message detail
I got lured in by all the Crash/Spyro/Jak hype and weak showings from a lot of western/recent characters. Thankfully I backed out and took Altair in the Oracle/Expert in the end. Still thought he'd keep up a bit better than this though.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#46 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 1:35:24 PM | message detail
I thought Altair would be weaker this year. Looks like he wasn't. Oh well.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#47 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:40:04 PM | message detail
Well, it's not like Altair has had nothing at all since 2010. He played a sizable role in Revelations, and I've heard people on the board say he was more likable in that game, but I certainly didn't think so. I liked him better when he was just generic assassin dude than what he became in Revelations.
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#48 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 7/25/2013 4:16:24 PM | message detail
#49 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 9:27:40 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5173
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5174

Crew Predictions - 30/32

What Happened: GlaDOS wins easily, Ike wins toughly. Guess he isn't as strong as we thought!

What will Happen: GlaDOS looking a lot better going into that debated R2 match



Crew Prediction Challenge - lopen and guest :(

Kleenex - 30
Moltar - 30
KP - 30
Tran - 29
Leon - 28
Guest - 27
Lopen - 26

Crew Expert Challenge - lopen and guest :(

Tran - 26
Kleenex - 25
KP - 24
Moltar - 23
Leon - 23
Guest - 20
Lopen - 19


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar and Tran get GlaDOS, Moltar gets Cole, Leon gets Ragna, Lopen gets Ike, KP gets Protoman and Robotnik

Lopen - 20
Kleenex - 18
Leon - 17
Moltar - 17
Tran - 13
KP - 11
Guest - 7 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS, Nintendoboy)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#50 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 10:05:44 PM | message detail
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 35 Ė (4) Lara Croft vs. (15) Yuri Hyuga vs. (25) Slime

Moltarís Analysis

Lara
Now with 50% smaller breasts

Yuri Hyuga
I was just thinking that we haven't seen enough obscure JRPG characters lately

Slime
woo generic enemies

Remember when Lara made it to Round 3 back in 2002? Crazy times. Anyway, she's not super weak, but she's still not much more than high fodder that can win against no-name opponents. Also, she has had her Tomb Raider reboot to keep her relevant, though I don't think it was all that well-received.

Slime could actually do very well here. We saw Hero act as a proxy for DQ earlier and went on to take 2nd place against Aerith and Rinoa. Slime is like Goomba, an enemy that spans across DQ games and is fairly well-known among people who play it. I doubt it's something that's particularly liked though, which means that Lara will exploit her global popularity to win.

lol shadow hearts character

Moltarís Prediction: Lara: 53% - Yuri Hyuga: 14% - Slime: 33%



Lopenís Analysis

A Slime draws near !
Prediction?

Long story short, I've got Slime taking this. I think his iconic status combined with joke votes will carry him through this one... I mean, he's slime. Who isn't at least going to humor voting for him?

Lara Croft could certainly win this and I wouldn't be too surprised. She's a washed up PSX icon so she could do well here given recent developments. She also got a new well received game so she might the best of both worlds here. I'm sticking with Slime, though it'll probably be close.

Oh and there's Yuri Hyuga. They say he's so badass, but you know... when SLIME is the favorite to beat your ass maybe you need to re-evaluate just how cool you are, ya know? Can this guy even reach level 2? Maybe he can go find some drakees to fight to build his strength.

Thou hast done well in predicting the Slime.
Thy bracket challenge points increase by 1.
Thy expert challenge points increase by 6.


Lopen's prediction:
Slime - 42.20%
Lara Croft - 39.20%
Yuri Hyuga - 18.60%



Leonhartís Analysis

This is a potentially historic match in the making! Slime marks the debut of ďrandom enemyĒ characters in these contests. If it does well here, weíll probably see stuff like ďGoombaĒ or ďMalboroĒ next contest or something because people love to pile on stuff like this and run it into the ground. Well, I guess Midgar Zolom was technically the debut of ďrandom enemyĒ characters, but itís not the same thing as this. Slimeís in a good match to put up a good percentage, too, since Lara Croft is an easy character to vote against and nobody knows who Yuri is. People are talking about the Tomb Raider reboot helping Lara out here, but I dunno. I mean, it probably will, but I donít expect it to have a big impact. Iím not predicting an upset here or anything. Just being the most well known character in this match by far should be enough to win here, especially when Yuriís going to be lucky to get 15% of the vote.

Leonhartís Vote: Yuri Hyuga

Leonhartís Prediction:

Lara Croft Ė 55.00%
Slime Ė 30.00%
Yuri Hyuga Ė 15.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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