Welcome, Master_Moltar

GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

#401 | legendmusketeer | Posted 7/22/2013 11:14:08 PM | message detail | quote
People still think Captain Falcon is going to win this?
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LM
#402 | transcience | Posted 7/22/2013 11:39:43 PM | message detail | quote
Alucard finally did something! should be an interesting night. I think Falcon puts him away in the morning.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#403 | Lopen | Posted 7/22/2013 11:42:07 PM | message detail | quote
I think tranny always expresses doubts over his picks so he'll look less bad if they go sour

Well when it doesn't go sour this time I will mock you in... some way... and it will be scathing indeed.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#404 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 11:43:00 PM | message detail | quote
I've been expressing doubt over this pick since I saw the bracket. They looked too close to accurately call it one way or another.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#405 | Ngamer64 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:00:44 AM | message detail | quote
legendmusketeer posted...
People still think Captain Falcon is going to win this?

Yes, Captain Falcon will emerge victorious. Consider it...

CALLED
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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show!
#406 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 1:10:22 AM | message detail | quote
Looks like I'm getting the point for Captain Falcon despite not picking him to win.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#407 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2013 1:58:43 AM | message detail | quote
Hey Moltar, drop 4% off of Wander give 2% to the other two. I forgot how bad that dude is.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#408 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 2:41:00 AM | message detail | quote
So much for my accuracy point.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#409 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/23/2013 4:49:04 AM | message detail | quote
Ngamer64 posted...
A win for Falcon, and ONLY NGAMER was man enough to call it!

Truly this is the greatest Crew Curse of all time!


Not even in the top 100!
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http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png
#410 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:22:40 AM | message detail | quote
Crew got a Falcon Punch to the face.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#411 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 5:39:15 AM | message detail | quote
it's all falling apart
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#412 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 7:26:48 AM | message detail | quote
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 30 Ė (9) Bayonetta vs. (10) N vs. (19) Wander

Moltarís Analysis

Bayonetta
bring back her Bayonetta 1 design

N
K

Wander
Also known as Mr. Last Place

Pokefear is going to be tested a lot in this contest, and here is one of its first true tests. Bayonetta was a well-received game, but the title character has never made it past vote-ins. She'll probably be fodder, but at least people know her, which puts her over a lot of the other fodder in this contest.

N is a kind of important but not too important dude from the most recent Pokemon generation. Now we know this site still likes and plays Pokemon, but the question is if they care enough about N to make him the winner. The Pokemon themselves are stronger than its humans, and Red (the strongest human) is like...low midcard at best. N isn't coming close to that.

So yeah, I'll take Bayonetta here. Even though Pokemon is more popular, only people familiar with the latest gen know N. And that coupled with the fact that he's a human means I can't put much faith in him to be worth much. On the other hand, Bayonetta is recognizable, and while not super popular, she's liked enough to win this threepack.

also LOL wander

Moltarís Bracket: Bayonetta > N > Wander

Moltarís Prediction: Bayonetta: 46% - N: 32% - Wander: 22%



Lopenís Analysis

I originally had Bayonetta in this match without much issue. 45-35-20 affair or so. Fodder brawl favors the one with the best pic and who has the most household name all other things being equal.

Then I saw the match pic. Bayonetta when she arguably has the worst pic and one of her opponents is freakin Wander is a recipe for disaster. I figure Bayonetta's fanbase vs Pokemon Black/White fanbase's proportion that gives a crap about N would be a push on this site and then Bayonetta's name value + pic advantage would give her the edge.

Now she's reduced to name value and N has the pic advantage (and looks very "Pokemon" meaning even some people who haven't played B/W may vote him). What's worse is that I think she also loses most of the B/W players who are apathetic towards N to N without her pic advantage. This is not good for her. Nayonetta Bayonetta. I'd love to see her win but yeah I gotta jump ship here.

Someone needs to slap who submitted that pic upside the head. Just showing your ass does not a good pic make.

Lopen's prediction:
N - 43.20%
Bayonetta - 35.40%
Wander - 21.40%



Leonhartís Analysis

I donít know how to analyze this match. Bayonetta isnít this siteís kind of game. GameFAQs doesnít care about Pokemon beyond the first generation, maybe the second, and I figure itís probably worse for the human characters. Then Wander is Wander, a guy who has proven more than once that he canít break 10% in multi-way polls and yet he still keeps getting back in the contest. Well, he might be able to manage it here because his competition is pretty bad.

I guess Iím going to take Bayonetta here. She has a more appealing design, and I guess people are looking forward to Bayonetta 2. Someone should petition Bacon to put Nís full name on the poll just to make my choice easier because that would seal the deal for her.

Leonhartís Vote: Bayonetta

Leonhartís Prediction:

Bayonetta Ė 45.00%
Natural Harmonia Gropius Ė 35.00%
Wander Ė 20.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#413 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 7:27:05 AM | message detail | quote
Kleenexís Analysis

Not content to ruin the contest with just mere Pokemon, we now have to deal with human characters from Gen 5. Bayonetta really should win this. There's no nostalgia factor associated with N whatsoever, so he probably doesn't get that boost that Charizard and Red do. I don't think Bayonetta's going to be particularly strong either, but Link help us if she's not at least good enough to beat a fifth string Pokemon character. Wander is here too bringing up the rear as he is prone to do. Keep on truckin', buddy.

Kleenex's Prediction
Bayonetta with 51.00%
N with 28.00%
Wander with 21.00%



Transienceís Analysis

I had never heard of N before nominations opened. Now, that doesn't really mean anything. If there's anyone that's out of touch with Pokemon, it's me. But I've never really understood the draw of human Pokemon characters outside of nostalgia, and N is brand new. It reminds me of when we took Lucario to beat Altair.

Now, Bayonetta's no Altair, but she is at least pretty well known. I look at that picture of N and don't really think Pokemon, and I don't think a lot of voters will either. I usually have some kind of idea of how a match is going to go, even if it's unpredictable. But this one, I have absolutely no idea. Wander could win just due to the fact that SOTC is a pretty popular game, more popular than Bayonetta and maybe moreso than Pokemon Black/White. I'm sure Bayonetta's going to be the Guru pick due to being a more traditional GameFAQs characters and also because of her butt, but I dunno. I'll pick her, but zero faith. Picking percentages is even worse!

transience's prediction: Bayonetta with 42%, N with 33%, Wander with 25%



KP's Analysis

Conversely, this a match being discussed way too much. I'd be surprised if N is anything other than garbage. Human Pokemon character that isn't from Gen 1/2. I could *maybe* see this guy losing to Wander, but it's Wander, so yeah.

Bayonetta - 53%
N - 30%
Wander - 17%



Guestís Analysis - Tsunami

I just sort of stepped in because I saw that we were like 15 hours from the start of the match and no one had signed up for this oneÖand also possibly to pull one over on the regulars, since the ďsmartĒ choice is so obviously wrong!

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5172.jpg

Look at that. Thatís supposed to be a recognizability advantage? Wander looks more recognizable than Bayonetta in that picture. (Wander arguably also looks girlier in that picture than Bayonetta, magnificent hindquarters be damned.) And this is a day match, where PokťFEAR dominates and ďcult classicsĒ with low playrates and ratings of T and M donít. Weíve already seen how bad Wander can be, and itís really bad. And Bayonetta, um, well it did sell better than Shadow of the Colossus did, even if it wasnít deemed ďartĒ. But big Nintendo franchise in a day match, stands out in the middle, easily the most recognizable character of the threeÖevery time I analyze this match, the idea that Bayonetta even stands a chance seems more and more ridiculous. This gets an honorary pick of Bayonetta 29.97%, N 56.83%, Wander 13.2%, and an actual pick ofÖ

Bayonetta 32.92%
N 48.25%
Wander 18.83%


Probably overshooting a little but itíll still look so good when the match is over.



Crew Consensus: More people taking N > Bayo than Falcon > Alucard!
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#414 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/23/2013 7:32:33 AM | message detail | quote
It seems Falcon Punch misses the crew.But let us watch!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#415 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 7:53:30 AM | message detail | quote
oh man. this gon' be good. I'd laugh if Alucard won the morning/day vote over a Nintendo character.

I offered Lopen an account bet after he said Alucard would come back. glad he didn't take it!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#416 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 8:20:17 AM | message detail | quote
whoa, did not expect Alucard to come all the way back when I saw the poll after I woke up
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#417 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 8:25:21 AM | message detail | quote
You know what's sad? My initial prediction was for Alucard to be a percent behind Falcon and Rydia to be getting 40% on the winner. In the end I had Rydia getting almost doubled by the winner, though I guess after factoring in Last Place Factor I guess that would have made sense. Not taking LPF into account, I probably would've taken something like this:

Alucard - 38%
Falcon - 37%
Rydia - 25%

Not sure whether or not this would have gotten me any points.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#418 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 8:51:07 AM | message detail | quote
it's funny how 500 votes is 'all the way back'. I guess when you have a third of the votes coming in, 500 is more like 1500.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#419 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/23/2013 9:03:20 AM | message detail | quote
I went into this thinking C. Falcon would have a bigger lead but I think Al might be able to maintain this lead, but it is still early in the day.
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@w@
Gamertag: SliceSabre
#420 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 9:16:03 AM | message detail | quote | (edited)
Maybe Alucard will break his own record and lose by 2 votes.

Ignore the edit!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#421 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 10:52:17 AM | message detail | quote
epic choke job by falcon today
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#422 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2013 10:55:06 AM | message detail | quote
I think Falcon wins a 24-hour match. Don't think Alucard would keep gaining throughout the entire day.

But man, I thought this was completely done when I went to bed.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#423 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 10:57:40 AM | message detail | quote
i think Alucard wins a 24 hour match. Falcon just looks like a joke character here.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#424 | ZFS | Posted 7/23/2013 11:02:47 AM | message detail | quote
This might be the worst match in a while.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#425 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 11:05:21 AM | message detail | quote
Bayonetta should be safe. if N can't get the lead now, he probably never will.

unless brackets, but that doesn't usually stop Pokemon
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#426 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 11:07:43 AM | message detail | quote
yikes

let's hope this happens to pikachu
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#427 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 11:08:47 AM | message detail | quote
I took basically no risks with Pokemon this year, including Charizard losing in the second round.

Go my anti Pokemon fear, make them all perish <_<.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#428 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 11:23:22 AM | message detail | quote
Wander for second let's do this
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#429 | OlDirtyNumbers | Posted 7/23/2013 11:24:51 AM | message detail | quote
Natural Harmonia Gropius kinda sounds like it should be a colossus anyway

Topple the giant, wander
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I keep coming back here where everything... slipped
Ahhahhahaa
#430 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/23/2013 11:33:03 AM | message detail | quote
once again

LOL Tsunami
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#431 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 11:35:23 AM | message detail | quote
Achromatic posted...
I took basically no risks with Pokemon this year, including Charizard losing in the second round.

Go my anti Pokemon fear, make them all perish <_<.


Out of curiosity, which of the ladies do you have beating Charizard in that match?
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#432 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 11:35:37 AM | message detail | quote
poor guest being brought down like that
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#433 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 12:43:25 PM | message detail | quote
man, too bad I bailed on Oracle this year!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#434 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 12:44:10 PM | message detail | quote
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Achromatic posted...
I took basically no risks with Pokemon this year, including Charizard losing in the second round.

Go my anti Pokemon fear, make them all perish <_<.


Out of curiosity, which of the ladies do you have beating Charizard in that match?


Lightning, I am hoping for just enough Nintendo hackery for her to pass on by.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#435 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/23/2013 12:52:12 PM | message detail | quote
Master Moltar posted...
I originally had Bayonetta in this match without much issue. 45-35-20 affair or so.


Should've stuck with your gut!

Also, I'm surprised Alucard came back and won. I went to bed as the morning vote was coming around and he still wasn't in the lead, so I figured it was over.

All part of the Plan.
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http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#436 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:57:00 PM | message detail | quote
Whoa, Alucard won. Cool!

Also yeah whoops on N. Well whatever I can't complain much Bayonetta's better and she's in my bracket. I also didn't go all the way with expert on this.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#437 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/23/2013 1:18:28 PM | message detail | quote
Lopen people play Pokemon games for the monsters,not the humans.But I thought he would had more than 33% myself to tell the truth.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#438 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 1:23:29 PM | message detail | quote
I realize that N wasn't going to be strong at all I thought he'd just be able to get the "I recognize that guy" votes from Pokemon players with Bayonetta getting a bad pic.

Not sure if I underestimated the power of name value, or underestimated Bayonetta's playrate here but overestimating a trainer was not the issue.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#439 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 1:27:30 PM | message detail | quote
It's okay to admit that you love Pokemon and overestimated something from it because of your raging bias, Lopen.

We'll forgive you.

Maybe.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#440 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 2:48:34 PM | message detail | quote
Oh also "lol NGamer" because no one did it

Captain Falcon no chance
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#441 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 7:56:05 PM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5169
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5170

Crew Predictions - 26/28

What Happened: Crash continues the old weak PS1 characters winning trend, and Snake dominates his opponents

What will Happen: Crash gets killed, Snake wins



Crew Prediction Challenge - darn you wheatley

Kleenex - 26
Moltar - 26
KP - 26
Guest - 25
Tran - 25
Lopen - 24
Leon - 24

Crew Expert Challenge - same as above

Tran - 22
Kleenex - 21
KP - 20
Moltar - 19
Leon - 19
Guest - 18
Lopen - 17


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets Wheatley, Tran gets Crash, Kleenex gets Tommy, KP gets Snake, Nintendoboy gets Isaac, Lopen gets Keen

Lopen - 18
Leon - 16
Moltar - 14
Kleenex - 14
Tran - 12
KP - 8
Guest - 7 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS, Nintendoboy)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#442 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 8:05:23 PM | message detail | quote
I feel like Lopen somehow always ends up leading the Accuracy Challenge while stinking up the joint in everything else.

How does this keep happening.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#443 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 8:06:14 PM | message detail | quote
can't touch this
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#444 | transcience | Posted 7/23/2013 8:07:42 PM | message detail | quote
because the accuracy challenge values being far away from your opponents numbers as opposed to being consistently correct
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#445 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 8:08:35 PM | message detail | quote
It's a pretty natural result. When weird percentage results happen I dominate them because my picks are most likely to be out of bounds.

But then... well... the problem with having off the wall picks is they backfire pretty often!

Although I actually half handicap myself by being the only one who still uses decimal places so I think it balances out to an extent.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#446 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/23/2013 8:09:55 PM | message detail | quote
Decimal places for multi-way matches are too much work to do 121 times.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#447 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 8:12:46 PM | message detail | quote
Latest batch of analyses I went to INTEGER BASED PREDICTION but I don't know if I'll stick with that... it feels so... soulless.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#448 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 8:39:59 PM | message detail | quote
The Mana Sword posted...
I feel like Lopen somehow always ends up leading the Accuracy Challenge while stinking up the joint in everything else.

How does this keep happening.


he hasn't won an accuracy challenge yet!
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#449 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2013 8:44:18 PM | message detail | quote
Implementing decimals into my percentages would triple the amount of thought I put into them. No thanks.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#450 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 9:25:05 PM | message detail | quote
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 31 Ė (2) GlaDOS vs. (17) Cole vs. (26) Ragna the Bloodedge

Moltarís Analysis

GlaDOS
insert your favorite glados quote here

Cole
not actually famous at all

Ragna
yessssssss a blazblue rep

GlaDOS isn't all that strong, but compared to these two, she's going to look like good here. Both Cole and Ragna have gotten crushed in vote-ins in the past, and neither infamous nor Blazblue have looked like they had any strength on GameFAQs.

I'd love for Ragna to take second, but I don't think BB and the anime vote are enough to get him it.

Touhou and F/SN going to look stronger than BB ugh this is the worst

Moltarís Bracket: GlaDOS > Cole > Ragna

Moltarís Prediction: GlaDOS: 58% - Cole: 28% - Ragna: 14%



Lopenís Analysis

I think I have Cole in my bracket here. You know, star of the game that got quadded by Fallout 3 in the game contest. Gives more credence to the idea that I was drunk when I made my bracket.

Well, I'm not drunk now, at least... I think I'm not... maybe I still have a hangover from whatever I was on when I made that N pick? Yeah, Cole probably doesn't win here-- in fact I think RAGNA THE BLOODEDGE might win just because he looks cooler and his name is RAGNA THE BLOODEDGE.

But Cole should probably take that. Blazblue's playrate is pitiful on this site (WHY IS RAGNA HERE INSTEAD OF SOL) and Cole doesn't look... totally uncool. Also PLAYSTATION ALL STARS AM I RIG-- *gets shot*

Meanwhile GlaDOS gets a poor score considering what she's up against because I don't trust Portal to put up big numbers in general. Not enough coverage.

Lopen's prediction:
GlaDOS - 46% (Fine... I will conform to your accursed whole numbers)
Cole - 30%
RAGNA THE BLOOD EDGE - 24%



Leonhartís Analysis

This is a pretty straightforward match. GlaDOS should win this one pretty easily despite her not having displayed much strength in the past. Portal has become a stronger franchise since our last Character Battle though, so that should help her out. Her biggest concern has always been a lack of good, recognizable pictures, but even taking that into consideration, I canít see her losing since her competition isnít very good.

If I hadnít seen how inFamous had performed in previous polls (which is not good), I might have been tempted to take Cole for the upset here. It was one of the games Sony offered for free with the whole PSN fiasco, and since it was probably the only worthwhile game in the bunch, I imagine a lot of people chose it (like I did). Whether they played it and liked it, I donít know. I donít think Cole is a particularly likable guy though, at least in the first game. Second game is supposed to be better, but it wasnít even in the GOTY poll that year, so we didnít even get to see how it performed. Either way, unless youíre planning on a huge Playstation All-Stars boost, itís safe to bet on GlaDOS for the win.

Ragna the Bloodedge might do half decently because his name is RAGNA THE BLOODEDGE. If I didnít know any of the characters here, Iíd totally vote for him because of that name.

Leonhartís Vote: Cole MacGrath

Leonhartís Prediction:

GlaDOS Ė 49.50%
Cole MacGrath Ė 33.50%
Ragna the Bloodedge Ė 17.00%
---
Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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