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GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

#351 | transience | Posted 7/21/2013 11:01:51 PM | message detail | quote
dat GTA
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xyzzy
#352 | Big Bob | Posted 7/21/2013 11:03:49 PM | message detail | quote
Vercetti beat Donkey Kong and Kefka one upon a time.
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Currently reading: The Kite Runner
Currently playing: Poker Night 2
#353 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/21/2013 11:06:08 PM | message detail | quote
One of these days I'll start picking these random third characters to completely bomb like I should. Completely kills my % accuracy!

I mean, I thought Vercetti was good enough in the past to avoid that, but apparently not.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#354 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 11:08:50 PM | message detail | quote
I could see Vercetti gaining 10% from here till end of poll honestly given GTA's board vote + no bracket support for him.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#355 | transcience | Posted 7/21/2013 11:22:58 PM | message detail | quote
popcorn.gif

an actual interesting match for first place! one that doesn't involve Tiny Tina and Tharja!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#356 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 11:25:34 PM | message detail | quote
Forget what I said about rising 10% Vercetti just dropped two straight updates what a joker
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#357 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 12:25:55 AM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5167
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5168

Crew Predictions - 27/28

What Happened: Elizabeth wins, but Poison surprised most by being stronger than most pegged her. Kirby has no problem winning his match.

What will Happen: Kirby still the easy favorite in R2



Crew Prediction Challenge - everyone except lopen and leon get 2

Kleenex - 25
Moltar - 25
KP - 24
Guest - 24
Lopen - 23
Tran - 23
Leon - 22

Crew Expert Challenge - tran the only one to get 2 points here

Kleenex - 20
Tran - 20
KP - 18
Moltar - 18
Guest - 17
Leon - 17
Lopen - 16


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Leon gets Liz, Lopen gets Poison, Peach and Thrall, Kleenex gets Kirby, Moltar and Leon get Terra

Lopen - 17
Leon - 16
Moltar - 13
Kleenex - 13
Tran - 11
KP - 7
Guest - 6 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#358 | voltch | Posted 7/22/2013 4:03:24 AM | message detail | quote
never trusting Portal.
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
#359 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/22/2013 5:25:13 AM | message detail | quote
A tie in a crew consensus?Nice.So no matter what you can say you guessed the match right correct?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#360 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/22/2013 5:36:35 AM | message detail | quote
damnit
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#361 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 7:15:08 AM | message detail | quote
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 28 – (1) Solid Snake vs. (18) Isaac (Golden Sun) vs. (27) Commander Keen

Moltar’s Analysis

Snake
Future overall second place character in CB9?

Isaac
I swear if I see one more Isaac...

Keen
this guy got in?

Not much to say here. Noble Nine vs fodder vs. super fodder should go as expected. Isaac did look good against Layton a few years ago, but then went on to get put in his place in his next match. Snake should have no problem going big here.

Moltar’s Prediction: Snake: 68% - Isaac: 24% - Keen: 8%



Lopen’s Analysis

Commander Keen, man. What the hell. Anyway Snake should do "Snake's going to win the contest" well here. Not really cause he necessarily deserve the hype but because I think Commander Keen is going to be in the running for weakest bracket entry and Isaac isn't all that much better.

Well, Keen might not be that bad he did beat 3 guys in that joke poll despite me scarcely having any idea who he is. I'm gonna just bet he has a small cult following and still totally sucks more than that means anything.

Lopen's prediction:
Solid Snake - 73.75%
Isaac - 17.50%
Commander Keen - 8.75%



Leonhart’s Analysis

This match is a good chance for Snake to impress. While Isaac has proven himself to be halfway decent in these contests in the past, Commander Keen could possibly be the weakest character not named Chester or C/Kaim. That ridiculous match pic could save him from an abysmal performance, but I have a hard time seeing him manage much more than 10% of the vote, if that. Snake’s got an outside shot at 70% depending on how low Keen goes, but I’ll shoot a little under that here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Solid Snake

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Solid Snake – 68.00%
Isaac – 23.00%
Commander Keen – 9.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I kinda hope Snake looks crappy here, but that probably won't happen. Isaac is kind of weird in that he is stronger than he really has any right to be - similar to KOS-MOS. Commander Keen is going to suck.

Uhh, not sure what else there is, not a whole lot going on in this match.

Kleenex's Prediction
Snake with 62.00%
Isaac with 28.00%
Commander Keen with 10.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#362 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 7:15:27 AM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

COMMANDER KEEN IS IN A GAMEFAQS CONTEST MATCH. WHEN SOMETHING IS OLD ENOUGH TO PULL AT MY NOSTALGIA STRINGS, YOU KNOW IT'S GOING TO BOMB HARD. I GOT A COPY OF COMMANDER KEEN WHEN I BOUGHT A GRAVIS GAMEPAD FOR MY PC IN LIKE 1991 OR SOMETHING. YEAH.

ISAAC HAS ALWAYS SHOCKED ME IN EVERY MATCH THAT HE'S BEEN IN. I ALWAYS EXPECT HIM TO BE WEAK AND HE ENDS UP PUTTING UP SOME KIND OF WEIRDLY GREAT PERFORMANCE. SOLID SNAKE DOMINATES THIS FOURPACK BIGTIME, BUT THERE'S ALWAYS THAT NINTENDO VOTE FOR PEOPLE WHO PLAYED THIS GAME WHEN THEY WERE LIKE 11 YEARS OLD AND THINK THAT IT'S A SOLID GAME.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: SOLID SNAKE WITH 74%, ISAAC WITH 28%, COMMANDER KEEN WITH 8%



KP's Analysis

Commander Keen has the best official art I've ever seen.

Snake (2010c) VS Isaac (2010c)

Snake has a strength of 46.51.
Isaac has a strength of 24.04.

Snake wins with 74.16% of the vote!

Snake - 70%
Isaac - 23%
Keen - 7%



Guest’s Analysis - Nintendoboy375

Solid Snake will dominate. It won't on the scale of Chester/Mewtwo/Zero, but he'll still look very respectable here. Unlike the other match, there are some people who actually care about about Isaac and Commander Keen.

Isaac gets an easy second here. Standard niche JRPG character whose games have been well received by the media. His latest release was in 2010, so he is still relatively fresh in everybody's mind. I don't seem him getting over 20% here, though he does have a pretty dedicated fanbase that will definitely vote for him.

The only reason I know about Commander Keen is because Cosmo Wright speedruns his game on twitch.tv for some reason. He's a niche character that has relatively few fans, and he's done nothing to stay relevant after all of these years. Outside of various re-releases of his old games, Commander Keen hasn't seen any action in well over a decade. He was apparently popular enough to warrant seven games in his heyday, but he's largely forgotten now. I can't imagine that he gets more than 10% of the vote, and even that's being very generous to him.

Nintendoboy375's Prediction

Solid Snake - 73.43%
Isaac (Golden Sun) - 19.23%
Commander Keen - 7.34%



Crew Consensus: SNAKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#363 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 7:16:55 AM | message detail | quote
pretty sure that doesn't add up to 100% tran!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#364 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/22/2013 7:21:57 AM | message detail | quote
Is Commander Keen the first id Software character to get into these contests?

And only the second id Software entrant to get into these contests, after Doom?
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#365 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/22/2013 7:29:59 AM | message detail | quote
OMFG CRASH! I'm so sorry I doubted you!
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#366 | transcience | Posted 7/22/2013 8:12:49 AM | message detail | quote
Snake makes the impossible possible
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#367 | Big Bob | Posted 7/22/2013 8:19:51 AM | message detail | quote
Tranny thinks we're still having fourpacks in 2007.
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Currently reading: The Kite Runner
Currently playing: Poker Night 2
#368 | transcience | Posted 7/22/2013 8:23:45 AM | message detail | quote
fine fine fine

71/21/8
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#369 | pjbasis | Posted 7/22/2013 8:31:13 AM | message detail | quote
#370 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/22/2013 11:24:26 AM | message detail | quote
pjbasis posted...
BJ/Hitler LMS


Oh wow I forgot about Rivalry Rumble. So Keen is the third entrant, but still the first character.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#371 | transcience | Posted 7/22/2013 11:41:57 AM | message detail | quote
my revised predictions look pretty good! why is Isaac not weak fodder, it confuses me every time
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#372 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/22/2013 11:43:33 AM | message detail | quote
because golden sun is the best mediocre rpg of all time
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#373 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 11:51:48 AM | message detail | quote
golden sun has excellent gameplay, music, and graphics, and a really dumb story/characters. Isaac is the most popular character from it because he had the good sense not to talk
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#374 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/22/2013 11:52:57 AM | message detail | quote
well it definitely has gameplay, music and graphics, that's for sure
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#375 | transcience | Posted 7/22/2013 12:56:12 PM | message detail | quote
people say the same about twewy and tons of other sorta popular second-tier RPGs too. Golden Sun just stands out I guess.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#376 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/22/2013 12:57:06 PM | message detail | quote
Another lopsided contest, nothing to see here folks.
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@w@
Gamertag: SliceSabre
#377 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/22/2013 12:58:46 PM | message detail | quote
Golden Sun stood out because there was really nothing else for the GBA at the time.

Aside Pokemon, and Ruby/Saphire did a good job pissing everyone off.
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Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude.
SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude
#378 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 12:58:49 PM | message detail | quote
Well the real reason it had a chance at standing out was because of good timing (which can be said for most popular games in existence). Standout RPG on a Nintendo system. Same reason Symphonia has strength at all.

Who knows, if Shadow Hearts had been a Gamecube game maybe Yuri Hyuga would be able to win a match...!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#379 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/22/2013 1:18:19 PM | message detail | quote
Golden Sun's graphics were fairly impressive for a handheld game at the time. SNES RPG battles didn't have all those different angles and stuff. Also PARTICLE EFFECTS.

But yeah pretty mediocre game.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#380 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 3:52:55 PM | message detail | quote
#381 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/22/2013 4:43:36 PM | message detail | quote
Aww, my Oracle would have won the crew today =(
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#382 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/22/2013 8:23:21 PM | message detail | quote
So I noticed that no one else signed up for tomorrow's day match. I've got it. Worst case scenario, I merely help you guys by averting a Crew Curse.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#383 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 9:41:44 PM | message detail | quote
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 29 – (6) Alucard vs. (13) Captain Falcon vs. (22) Rydia Commander Keen

Moltar’s Analysis

Alucard
His rival moved on earlier, can he?

Falcon
Punch? More like Lose

Rydia
You know who have not been looking good? Final Fantasy females

Alucard vs. Falcon is a pretty good match. It's different from a lot of the other debatable matches between fodder that no one knows about. We've got past matches on these guys and they're both of decent strength.

Oh and Rydia's here too, but she's a step below these other two so I won't really give her a shot here. FF4 characters have looked good in loses though so she probably won't get killed.

I'd say Alucard's the favorite despite still getting older. One of his biggest advantages here is that this is a night match, which is where he thrives. Meanwhile, Falcon is more of a day oriented character, so this puts him at a disadvantage. In a potential close match like this, that alone is enough to tip the scales.

Plus 28% on Link > 30% on Cloud thanks stats and data and numbers.

Moltar’s Prediction: Alucard: 40% - Falcon: 35% - Rydia: 25%



Lopen’s Analysis

I think on paper this one can be close based on Falcon and Alucard's recent appearances. This one being night based nails the race car door shut on this upset... or however the saying goes. Shouldn't be particularly close. I'm also thinking ~Rydia~ (who, reinvigorated by the reemergence of TJF + it being a night match does better than people expect here... in fact part of me wants to put her in second but I'm going to show restraint for once) hurts Falcon more here since FFIV is more of a Nintendo based FF than not. It shouldn't be that notable but it can't help his chances.

Lopen's prediction:
Alucard - 40.11%
Captain Falcon - 32.01%
~Rydia~ - 27.88%



Leonhart’s Analysis

We already saw Alucard beat Falcon twice in 2008, although the Captain was hampered by LFF in both rounds, first by Diddy and second by Pikachu. Either way, Alucard managed to win pretty easily both times. Falcon looked a bit stronger than normal in 2010, but part of me wonders if his value is a little overinflated from facing Cloud. Captain Falcon actually had 41% on him at the freeze and Cloud finished with nearly 70% by the end. It probably would’ve been more if it had been a 24-hour match, too. Either way, I don’t expect Falcon to look as good now as he did then, and I think Alucard looked better in 2010 anyway. I’ll take 58% on Magus over 52% on Riku. This being a night match is just icing on the cake for Alucard.

Oh right, there’s another character in the match, isn’t there? Well, if Rydia can get that pic she got in 2008 that let her beat Marcus Fenix and after what we’ve seen from Morrigan and Poison in the last division, maybe she can win. Who knows. I don’t understand this contest.

Leonhart’s Vote: Rydia of Mist

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Alucard – 40.00%
Captain Falcon – 35.00%
Rydia of Mist – 25.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#384 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 9:42:00 PM | message detail | quote
Kleenex’s Analysis

Previous stats would tell us that this match should go to Alucard. I mean, Alucard has already beaten Captain Falcon before in multi-way matches. Something about that match with Riku worries me, though. Falcon has definitely gotten stronger since his debut and there's definitely room here for pull off an upset. Is it even an upset at this point? I dunno. Rydia is most likely a non-factor in this match unless she was under some really heavy SFF from Auron back in 2008. That's probably not the case, but on the off chance it is, she could actually give the other two a scare here. I wouldn't bet on it, but that's what Lopen is for.

Kleenex's Prediction
Alucard with 38.00%
Captain Falcon with 36.00%
Rydia with 26.00%



Transience’s Analysis

Alucard and Falcon have done this dance before, and Falcon did better than expected, beating Diddy and coming kinda close to Alucard considering the monkey on his back. Additionally, I keep waiting for Alucard to fall off the map in a Crono-like way. He hasn't really had a relevant game since 1997. He shows up in random games but it's not like he's had a core game that people go 'oh crap Alucard is BACK'. Symphony of the Night is now 16 years old.

I think if this were a day match then I back Falcon, and I'm still considering it. He's been a much more relevant character for the last 10 years. But it being a night match and Falcon not getting a new F-Zero game in now 10 years (aughhhhhh) lets me side with Alucard. But hold this match post-Smash 4 and I'm pretty sure I back Falcon. He's had a bit of a lull lately.

As for Rydia, she could threaten both of these guys. FF4 has been whored out so hard that it's difficult not to know her these days, and they actually have semi-attractive art as opposed to Amano nonsense like FF6 has to deal with. She might be stronger than every FF6 character despite every indication that FF6 is better than FF4. Plus she'll probably do the best at night. I'm not going to back it though. She'll get her 27% and go home respectably.

transience's prediction: Alucard with 39%, Captain Falcon with 34%, Rydia of Mist with 27%


KP's Analysis

This match has not gotten nearly enough discussion. Alucard and Captain Falcon looked really, really close in strength in 2008 and 2010. Everyone is picking Alucard just because, but he could very easily lose this. Is Alucard going to be as relevant in 2013?

I'm also picking Alucard, simply because it's a night match and because I have him in my bracket like all the other sheep. But I have a really bad feeling about this.

Rydia should do alright. TJF + good artwork.

Alucard - 38%
Captain Falcon - 37%
Rydia - 25%



Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

In my bracket I picked Alucard without a second thought since he's beaten Falcon before and this is a night match. To spare the length of this writeup, other facts potentially important to the match:

-Alucard has received a new game since last contest, but it only has a 73 on Metacritic. Additionally, Symphony of the Night finally arrived on the European PSN a little over half a year ago.
-SSB-reliant characters haven't done well so far this contest, Olimar being the only exception due to having a new game on the horizon.
-This is still probably going to be a really tight match.

Alucard - 40%
Captain Falcon - 39%
Rydia - 21%



Crew Consensus: Alucard rules the night
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#385 | transience | Posted 7/22/2013 9:44:00 PM | message detail | quote
Moltar did you edit that LMS writeup or did he actually self-censor
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xyzzy
#386 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/22/2013 9:44:03 PM | message detail | quote
Exactly as planned
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#387 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 9:44:37 PM | message detail | quote
We're gonna get Crew Cursed so badly
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#388 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:49:15 PM | message detail | quote
Captain Falcon to win then
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Character Battle IX: 24/27 points, Next matches: Solid Snake, Captain Falcon
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#389 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 9:54:20 PM | message detail | quote
transience posted...
Moltar did you edit that LMS writeup or did he actually self-censor


posted as sent
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#390 | ZFS | Posted 7/22/2013 9:56:07 PM | message detail | quote
No Falcon? Crazy!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#391 | most_games_r_ok | Posted 7/22/2013 10:04:04 PM | message detail | quote
Master Moltar posted...
transience posted...
Moltar did you edit that LMS writeup or did he actually self-censor


posted as sent


nice to see

that last writeup was....was....interesting
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http://www.yourgamercards.net/trophy/a/Micer101.png
#392 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/22/2013 10:08:30 PM | message detail | quote
what a horrible night to have a crew curse
(come on falcon)
#393 | LeonhartFone | Posted 7/22/2013 10:10:22 PM | message detail | quote
ZFS posted...
No Falcon? Crazy!


Crazy like a fox!

I dunno. I just don't believe in him.
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#394 | ZFS | Posted 7/22/2013 10:11:43 PM | message detail | quote
you gotta believe

falcon punch and stuff
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#395 | legendmusketeer | Posted 7/22/2013 10:12:22 PM | message detail | quote
Falcon isn't winning.
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LM
#396 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/22/2013 10:23:41 PM | message detail | quote
Three different predictions of 25% for Rydia.

Not that it matters; Lopen's got the point for Rydia easily. I think. What do we think Rydia's worth relative to Terra and Locke? Because with the way those two overperformed in day matches on the strength of pretty much winning the better part of three continents, I'm suddenly really scared to bet against Old Square in a debatable night match. I still think Rydia will get third, but she could win this and I wouldn't be shocked.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#397 | Lopen | Posted 7/22/2013 10:49:43 PM | message detail | quote
Man I'm the only one who does decimal places now, huh? Y'all just gaming the accuracy point system hoping for ties.

I'm still in the lead regardless, suckers !!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#398 | transience | Posted 7/22/2013 11:02:11 PM | message detail | quote
I had a really bad feeling about this

oh well
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xyzzy
#399 | Ngamer64 | Posted 7/22/2013 11:09:54 PM | message detail | quote
A win for Falcon, and ONLY NGAMER was man enough to call it!

Truly this is the greatest Crew Curse of all time!
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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
Oh gosh, you really should listen to The Show!
#400 | Lopen | Posted 7/22/2013 11:11:45 PM | message detail | quote
Gonna change that Falcon Punch to a Crow Punch in a few updates
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

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