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GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

#301 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/20/2013 8:00:34 PM | message detail | quote
Moltar, please drop Poison 6% and raise up Thrall and Elizabeth by 3% apiece.

Thanks.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
#302 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/20/2013 10:02:30 PM | message detail | quote
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 25 – (3) Elizabeth vs. (16) Poison vs. (25) Thrall

Moltar’s Analysis

Elizabeth
She's already seen the results of this match

Poison
And I've got the antidote right he-

Thrall
some blizzard thing

The only one of these characters we've seen before is Thrall, who was somewhere between Ratchet and Vergil and worth 20% on Link. That might be enough to win, but I doubt it. Second place is definitely possible though.

Poison I don't see as being all that strong, but she's somewhat relevant with SFxT still existing (barely). Fighting game characters that aren't from established franchises have looked really weak, and Final Fight isn't worth anything on this site.

Elizabeth is easily the most relevant character here with Bioshock Infinite being only a few months old and the strongest/most GameFAQs-preferred game of the bunch. She's well-liked and fresh, and the game is popular enough where I feel fine in putting confidence in her to win the match.

Moltar’s Bracket: Elizabeth > Poison > Thrall

Moltar’s Prediction: Elizabeth: 45% - Thrall: 35% - Poison: 20%



Lopen’s Analysis

Picking Poison here is a trap.

I know it's a trap, and yet I can't resist her charms in this match.

I don't know... I just see this Warcraft never was and a character from a series where the strongest entry is Big Daddy... only this character is from a less significant sequel entry and has a much less appealing design than Big Daddy, and it just seems like this match is ready to be broken open.

And frankly, speaking as someone who's actually played Infinite? I don't know who's going to vote for her. I personally thought she was more annoying than likable or sympathetic or whatever. Now I fully acknowledge that I'm probably the outlier opinion here, and I haven't really looked into how the fanbase feels extensively, but to me just the fact that she's a (albeit very significant) supporting character and her design/character aren't super cool means she's got all the tools to fail here. Doesn't help that she's not iconic of the series like Big Daddy is so this is basically a straight Infinite character, which has debatable strength as a game in the first place.

Now, it's a subject of fierce debate among her fanbase whether or not Poison is stiff competition, but I think it's very much on the table here for her to Spyro her way through this match. She's a recognizable character and is slowly increasing in actual fighting game relevance. She also has the ever valuable TJF!!!... and although I think her picture could be a good deal better given it's Poison, she still wins the pic vote for this match pretty easily. I also see her as a possibility to get rallied if she makes this close. Something about this character screams 4chan to me but I have absolutely no idea what that could be!

Long story short, I choose to believe in Poison, here. Maybe... maybe in this nth character retcon, she won't be a trap after all. Or maybe, part of her charm was in being a trap in the first place, and winning the match will ruin her character. Time will tell... time will tell.

Lopen's prediction:
Poison - 36.92%
Elizabeth - 34.08%
Thrall - 29.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#303 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/20/2013 10:02:49 PM | message detail | quote
Leonhart’s Analysis

This is an interesting match that I haven’t seen a lot of discussion about. I think Thrall’s got a good shot at the upset here. There’s no way Elizabeth turns out to be as strong as Big Daddy, so her ceiling’s already been set. While Thrall has never been that great, he’s on the higher end of the fodder spectrum. Plus, I think multi-way polls probably help Warcraft more because it’s harder to anti-vote it effectively and you don’t need as high of a percentage to win. Also, while we’ve harped on RacistFAQs in the past, I think we might secretly see SexistFAQs at work here in a Thrall victory. We saw Samus’s strength noticeably drop when she got a Zero Suit picture against Tifa in 2006. The vast majority of our strongest characters are male. Heck, the vast majority of characters who get into these contests are male. So with it being a giant ogre dude against two females (…sort of), I’m siding with Thrall.

Either way, this match will suck because we’re going to get a lot of topics about Poison being a trap. Darn it, get Guy or Cody in next year instead.

Leonhart’s Vote: Poison

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Thrall – 45.00%
Elizabeth – 42.00%
Poison – 13.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Could Poison surprise everyone and win this match, especially after just being announced for Ultra Street Fighter IV?! You know, maybe. Probably not, but I'm sure I entirely trust either of the other two. Thrall hasn't exactly ever impressed, but he's "okay" enough to beat real fodder. Elizabeth is a pretty big unknown. When nominations were happening, Bioshock Infinite was still Kind of a Big Deal, but now no one talks about it seems like it's suffering from some slight backlash or something. I don't know. Anyway, Liz and Thrall have really bad pictures here, not sure when Zen decided to submit a pic of Liz in that outfit when her other one is way more recognizable. Bad Zen.

So uh, I suppose I have to pick a winner here, huh. I think I'll stick with Elizabeth, but I've definitely talked myself out of being sure of it over the past few weeks.

Kleenex's Prediction
Elizabeth with 40.00%
Thrall with 35.00%
Poison with 25.00%



Transience’s Analysis

IT'S TOO BAD THAT ELIZABETH GOT SUCH A BORING PATH. POISON AND THRALL AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH TO PUSH HER, AND SHE PROBABLY CAN'T STAND UP TO LEGITIMATE COMPETITION, I ACTUALLY THINK LIZ IS BEING REALLY OVERRATED AND WOULD HAVE TAKEN HER TO LOSE TO CHARACTERS LIKE NESS, BUT SHE GETS A CUT AND DRY PATH. OH WELL.

MAYBE POISON CAN MAKE HER LOOK LAUGHABLE. WHICH WOULD BE LAUGHABLE, SINCE POISON SHOULD BE LIKE A POOR MAN'S DAN.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: ELIZABETH WITH 55%, POISON WITH 25%, THRALL WITH 20%



KP's Analysis

Poison gets last here. She's very lucky to be here at all.

So is Thrall, actually. He's the only Warcraft character who made the field (with Kerrigan being the only other Blizzard character period), and he barely scraped in at a 25 Seed. He's had some decent performances in the past, but I don't think it matters here. I don't think GameFAQs cares about Warcraft anymore, WoW or otherwise, and Thrall isn't a character that I think people outside the fanbase really know. He's not a poster boy like Diablo or Arthas or Kerrigan.

And even if Thrall hasn't dropped in strength (unlikely), he probably still loses to Elizabeth. Bioshock Infinite is hot stuff right now, and while that won't entirely transfer over to character strength, Elizabeth was plastered everywhere on the marketing for the game. She should be well-known enough to win here.

Elizabeth - 45%
Thrall - 35%
Poison - 20%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#304 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/20/2013 10:03:38 PM | message detail | quote
Guest’s Analysis - pjbasis

Pretty cut and dry match. A lot of new things have crapped the bed lately, but Elizabeth is different. Bioshock is an established series and Infinite was one of the hypiest games of the last year, Elizabeth being one of the big reasons. Her face is everywhere and everyone knows this is GOTY caliber. Granted, a lot of the same s*** could be said about Clementine, but she's a little girl in an indie game. Elizabeth has boobs and magical powers. Done

Poison is obviously last place. No one cares about Final Fight and only Street Fighter fans will vote for her, she's infamous enough to warrant decent recognizably though. Thrall will do decently, but not enough to win. I can see Elizabeth doing a little more than 20% on Link. The numbers I just kinda threw together. I wanted to go higher with Elizabeth but I'll play it safe. If she's closer to Big Daddy though this could be awesome.


Elizabeth - 42.23%
Poison - 21.21%
Thrall - 36.56%


Crew Consensus: Liz is the heavy favorite here.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#305 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/20/2013 10:12:58 PM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5163
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5164

Crew Predictions - 23/24

What Happened: Spyro destroyed his group (can't believe I'm even saying this), and Luigi did the same

What will Happen: Luigi looks strong going into Round 2, but...



Crew Prediction Challenge - believe in spyro

Kleenex - 21
Moltar - 21
Lopen - 21
KP - 20
Guest - 20
Leon - 19
Tran - 19

Crew Expert Challenge - kleenex stands alone

Kleenex - 17
Tran - 16
KP - 16
Moltar - 16
Guest - 15
Leon - 14
Lopen - 14


Crew Accuracy Challenge - LMS gets Spyro, Leon gets Clem, Kleenex gets Reyn, Tran and KP get Luigi, Leon gets Balthier, Lopen gets Jade

Lopen - 13
Moltar - 12
Leon - 12
Kleenex - 11
Tran - 10
Guest - 6 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS)
KP - 6
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#306 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/20/2013 10:14:48 PM | message detail | quote
Elizabeth is not going to win.
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#307 | transcience | Posted 7/20/2013 11:03:56 PM | message detail | quote
you guys seriously took freaking Thrall and Poison to beat Elizabeth? I thought I was skeptical of Liz but nothing compared to others apparently!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#308 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/20/2013 11:06:33 PM | message detail | quote
Yikes, looks like Thrall is the one I should've dropped 6%
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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg
#309 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/20/2013 11:08:00 PM | message detail | quote
Oh come on Thrall.

+0 again!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#310 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/20/2013 11:08:18 PM | message detail | quote
Okay yeah Thrall finishes last

what the heck happened here

Is it seriously the match pic
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http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif
http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif
#311 | transcience | Posted 7/20/2013 11:09:19 PM | message detail | quote
why would anyone have faith in Thrall? at the very least, this isn't a fourway and Warcraft is pretty irrelevant these days
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#312 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/20/2013 11:10:39 PM | message detail | quote
Because it's a D-list fighting game character that only got in because Rad Link decided to rally

This is basically Thrall vs. TJF. And TJF won.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#313 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/20/2013 11:11:18 PM | message detail | quote
Well, I'm not surprised Thrall lost. I knew that was a risk when I took it.

But he's going to get destroyed by friggin' Poison here.
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http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif
#314 | transcience | Posted 7/20/2013 11:12:23 PM | message detail | quote
oh I don't even care about second and third place. that expert bracket stuff is kind of dumb to me since neither moves on. I'm talking Thrall over Elizabeth.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#315 | transcience | Posted 7/20/2013 11:17:39 PM | message detail | quote
haha go Poison

second strongest SF character right here
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#316 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/20/2013 11:18:43 PM | message detail | quote
#317 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/20/2013 11:30:04 PM | message detail | quote
#318 | transcience | Posted 7/20/2013 11:30:21 PM | message detail | quote
uhhhhh

this is funny. best trap ever.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#319 | pjbasis | Posted 7/20/2013 11:44:10 PM | message detail | quote
Hentai factor.

Poison is actually pretty...recognizable!
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#320 | LOZLTTP | Posted 7/21/2013 12:26:19 AM | message detail | quote
Poison's also slated to be in the next iteration of Street Fighter 4.
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Many people, of course, use 'sentimentalism' as a term of abuse for other people's decent feelings, and realism as a disguise for their own brutality. G H Hardy
#321 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 12:42:13 AM | message detail | quote
Well at least I look smarter than the people who took Thrall to win I guess

C'mon massive Poison rally
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#322 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 12:53:55 AM | message detail | quote
Actually I guess I don't entirely need that... "Poison takes the night vote" might suffice here. Which I could actually see happening-- Western based characters tend to be strongest in the opening hours of the poll and weakest during the first night vote.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#323 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/21/2013 6:05:24 AM | message detail | quote
wow thrall
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#324 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 10:05:43 AM | message detail | quote
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 26 – (4) Kirby vs. (15) Terra Branford vs. (24) Princess Peach

Moltar’s Analysis

Kirby
Shaped like a ball to bowl over the competition

Terra
TERROR

Peach
at least she has smas-oh right kirby's here

Well this is easy. Kirby's strong, Terra's decent, Peach is weak. 1, 2, 3.

The only question you could ask is if Peach hurts Kirby enough for Terra to win, and that answer is no. Sure, Terra stands out, but Peach isn't going to steal a significant amount of votes from Kirby because people actually like Kirby and are mostly indifferent about Peach.

Moltar’s Bracket: Kirby > Terra > Peach

Moltar’s Prediction: Kirby: 50% - Terra: 35% - Peach: 15%



Lopen’s Analysis

Kirby blasts through two of the crappiest characters in the bracket, so we can all be happy about that. Peach isn't strong enough to drain much of Kirby's support and I've said time and time again that I don't really think "all of Nintendo" is a very meaningful LFF split anyway. I guess they share Smash but yeah.

Not that anyone was going to argue with me here anyway, but you know... I'm pretty tired writing this so I'm attacking angles that a rested Lopen wouldn't even bother with...? Well, maybe he would.

Lopen's prediction:
Kirby - 53.55%
Terra - 29.45%
Peach - 17.00%



Leonhart’s Analysis

We’ll get a good idea of what to expect from LFF in this contest from this match. Kirby is easily the strongest character in this match. While Terra has improved with Dissidia, Kirby is still way out of her league. She might be stronger than Peach now though. Actually, I’d probably pick Terra > Peach. So that begs the question: How much does Peach, a well known but not particularly cared for Mario character, hurt a beloved character like Kirby? LFF almost always makes the stronger character look bad, so if Terra comes anywhere close to winning (and especially if she somehow manages to outright win), start adjusting your Expert Challenge picks accordingly. I think Kirby will make Peach look pretty bad here. After all, she managed to lose to Meta Knight in 4-ways when all he had going for him was being announced in Brawl, so Nintendo’s proven it’ll abandon her without a second thought. Still, her presence will hurt Kirby. It’s just a matter of how much.

Leonhart’s Vote: Kirby

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Kirby – 42.00%
Terra Branford – 35.00%
Princess Peach Toadstool – 23.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Terra, Terra, Terra, that's a name you might know.
Terra, Terra, Terra, FF6 characters blow.
She's weaker than you think, this poll's way too pink, Kirby Kirby Kirby has won.

Kleenex's Prediction
Kirby with 46.00%
Terra with 33.00%
Peach with 21.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#325 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 10:05:55 AM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

I CAN'T SEE WHY PEOPLE WOULD VOTE FOR PEACH WHEN KIRBY IS THERE. IT'S KINDA FUNNY THAT THE PINKEST MATCH IS HISTORY IS ONE OF PEACH'S WORST MATCHUPS. TERRA STANDS OUT LIKE A SORE THUMB HERE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH FOR SECOND, I THINK, WHILE KIRBY RISES TO HEAVEN.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: KIRBY WITH 52%, TERRA WITH 27%, PEACH WITH 21%



KP's Analysis

I think Terra can win here, but it requires the stars to align. If Kirby and Peach kill each other with LFF, and the Dissidia boost hasn't worn off, then Terra has a real shot here. But even if all of that happened, Kirby still probably wins anyway, and I think that Dissidia boosted characters will be a little weaker this contest. I'm also pretty skeptical of Peach being with other Nintendo characters. How much is she gonna hurt someone like Kirby? Who actually likes Peach over Kirby?

Kirby - 41%
Terra - 34%
Peach - 25%



Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu

This is probably the match of the tournament with the highest strength floor thus far - that is, whoever comes 3rd will be stronger than all the previous 3rd placers. Kirby is at least a high midcarder while Terra and Princess Peach proved themselves decent in 2010 and could've easily had winnable R1 matches this time around.

Kirby got over 45% on Sonic after comfortably posting in the high 50s against Rikku and Vivi. and can reasonably be considered to possess strength similar to the other Nintendo near-elites like Luigi and Bowser. He would never have any trouble with Terra or Peach in a 1v1 scenario.

Terra was extremely weak in 2005 and 2006, but post-Dissidia showed a remarkably more respectable level of strength - and given how badly Locke just did, I think her boost was a result of Dissidia, as opposed to a random Old Square boost - in getting 35.5% against Squall, who should be a pretty bad opponent for her. That should roughly be her floor against Kirby, even in a day match.

Princess Peach lost narrowly to Gordon Freeman in 2010, and has also lost twice to Meta Knight. I bring this up because we've already seen Meta Knight get held to 28% against Bowser, which I expect to be a decent indicator for how Peach/Kirby will go. Whatever chance Peach would have had against Terra in a fair fight - a very good one, by most accounts - is almost non-existent when sharing a poll with Kirby.

Terra should therefore cruise to an easy 2nd place and has a very good chance of breaking 40% on Kirby thanks to the leeching. Putting all that together gives something like...

Kirby - 48.5%
Terra - 34.5%
Princess Peach - 18%



Crew Consensus: Kirby Kirby Kirby
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#326 | ZFS | Posted 7/21/2013 10:25:08 AM | message detail | quote
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#327 | ZFS | Posted 7/21/2013 10:25:09 AM | message detail | quote
go terra
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#328 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/21/2013 11:28:04 AM | message detail | quote
Terra gets a 'not bad', here.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 12:42:39 PM | message detail | quote
Looks like people care about Peach even less than I thought!
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http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif
#330 | transience | Posted 7/21/2013 1:48:25 PM | message detail | quote
this does make Locke look pretty bad

I think a lot of that is that bizarre picture though
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xyzzy
#331 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 2:00:44 PM | message detail | quote
Kleenex's analysis is my favorite.

Also tran do you think Amano Locke does better there? I just don't think Locke actually has any pic options unless it's the sprite round.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#332 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 2:02:17 PM | message detail | quote
Yeah, Locke has no good picture options. The one he got was probably the best choice, honestly, if he can't get a sprite pic.
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http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg
#333 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/21/2013 2:28:36 PM | message detail | quote | (edited)
transience posted...
this does make Locke look pretty bad

I think a lot of that is that bizarre picture though


What other pic is Locke gonna get? I mean he'd definitely do better with Dissidia-level art, but...yeah.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#334 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/21/2013 5:27:24 PM | message detail | quote
LeonhartFour posted...
Looks like people care about Peach even less than I thought!


Peach is doing a lot worse than I expected. I think Kirby is SFFing Peach here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#335 | transience | Posted 7/21/2013 5:31:06 PM | message detail | quote
I'm not saying that Locke got screwed by his picture or anything - that's just part of FF6 characters' limitations - but he has just nothing that makes you realize who he is. he would need a sprite or menu art to do anything. that picture doesn't look like ff6 at all.
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xyzzy
#336 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 5:57:05 PM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5165
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5166

Crew Predictions - 25/26

What Happened: Big Boss dominated fodder, and it turns out even Ness can make an FF6 character look bad

What will Happen: Big Boss vs Luigi with Ness still look up in the air at this point



Crew Prediction Challenge - lopen swings and misses

Kleenex - 23
Moltar - 23
Lopen - 22
KP - 22
Guest - 22
Leon - 21
Tran - 21

Crew Expert Challenge - comment goes here

Kleenex - 19
Tran - 18
KP - 17
Moltar - 17
Guest - 16
Leon - 16
Lopen - 15


Crew Accuracy Challenge - KP gets BB, Lopen gets Peacock, Tran gets Viridian, Leon gets Ness and Locke, Kleenex gets CATS

Lopen - 14
Leon - 14
Moltar - 12
Kleenex - 12
Tran - 11
KP - 7
Guest - 6 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami, Suor, Turtle, LMS)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#337 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 8:00:58 PM | message detail | quote
Whoa, I'm tied for first in Accuracy now.

The fact that Lopen and I have a two point advantage there should tell you all you need to know about that one...!

-LusterSoldier- posted...
Peach is doing a lot worse than I expected. I think Kirby is SFFing Peach here.


Of course he is. The point is the fact that he's SFFing her even harder than a lot of people expected means she's not as cared about as even I thought!
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
#338 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/21/2013 8:12:24 PM | message detail | quote
accuracy challenge has never mattered tbqh
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#339 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 10:07:00 PM | message detail | quote
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 27 – (7) Wheatley vs. (12) Crash Bandicoot vs. (21) Tommy Vercetti

Moltar’s Analysis

Wheatley
Had to miss this match due to being stuck somewhere far away.

Crash
and burn

Vercetti
oh right GTAV is right around the corner

Well, this is tough. Yay for having to actually analyze things!

Unlike Jak and Spyro, Crash is stuck with characters from mainstream games lots of people have played, so he doesn't get a free pass here. He's a well-known but not really well-liked character, like Peach. Wheatley and Vercetti aren't Xenoblade or Persona characters, so I doubt Crash benefits too much just from being recognizable here.

Vercetti used to be decent, but the older his game gets, the weaker he gets. He has been gone since 2007 after Yuna and Chief embarrassed him, and I'm sure he's fallen even further by now.

Wheatley is a prominent part of the popular game Portal 2. Like GlaDOS, he is loved among its players and has a good chance of securing their votes in this match. However, with GlaDOS as a ceiling, he already doesn't look to be much more than high fodder. Then again, high fodder could be enough to win this group.

I'm counting on Wheatley for a number of reasons. Most recent character, well-liked by fans of Portal (which is popular enough on GameFAQs to give me reason to believe he doesn't bomb here), and night match are the biggest reasons he has a shot here. If it's close, I could also see him getting rallied over Crash.

That being said, based on how the contest has played out so far, Crash should be considered the favorite at this point.

Moltar’s Prediction: Wheatley: 37% - Crash: 35% - Vercetti: 28%



Lopen’s Analysis



Leonhart’s Analysis

Do you realize Crash Bandicoot hasn’t won a contest match in eleven years? His one and thus far only contest win came back in the very first contest against Ulala. He hasn’t even sniffed victory since then, but I think this is his best shot. I expect Wheatley to be pretty weak here. No way he’s as strong or stronger than GlaDOS, and last time we saw her, she was getting 31% against Kirby. While that was before Valve was giving out Portal as much as humanly possible and before Portal 2 came out, it’s still not a good showing, and Wheatley will be weaker. Crash Bandicoot is better fodder than people give him credit for, and being the most recognizable character in the match works in his favor here as well.

Kinda weird to think that 7-8 years ago, Vercetti would’ve been a heavy favorite to win here. GTA’s really fallen off the map since then, and I don’t expect time to have been kind to Tommy. Last time we saw him in 2007, he was getting doubled by Yuna. I know GTAV is right around the corner, but I can’t see that helping him here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Crash Bandicoot

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Crash Bandicoot – 39.00%
Wheatley – 33.00%
Tommy Vercetti – 29.00%


Kleenex’s Analysis

Once upon a time Tommy Vercetti might have won this match! No more though, now it'll take everything he's got to not come in last place. Instead, one would think that with how well the Sony mascots have been doing so far, Crash has this in the bag. Well I'm here to tell you that you're WRONG. Jak and Spyro were able to benefit from low playrates of the games their opponents came from. Crash doesn't have that luxury. Portal 2 is far more popular and far more played that Persona 4 or The Walking Dead. Wheatley is a fan favorite and if people are dumb they might think he's GLaDOS and give him a vote anyway.

Kleenex's Prediction
Wheatley with 46.00%
Crash with 34.00%
Tommy with 20.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#340 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 10:07:38 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

This is a legitimate tough match, but I don't think there's a lot to say. Vercetti and Crash haven't been relevant in ten years while Wheatley is a lot more recent and from, by far, the most popular game. But being in a popular 2011 game isn't really as good as it should be on this website, and Wheatley still takes second to Glados in her game. I'm not sure Wheatley is all that recognizable and Portal 2's limelight has faded a bit, while Crash and TV are very clearly video game icons. But they're faded icons, and this is a night match which should minimize that. Then again, Spyro just put like 55% on Clem and someone or other, so who knows.

I think this match is between Wheatley and Crash. I think Wheatley has a very good possibility of finishing below Vercetti, but Vercetti can't beat Crash. I'll back Crash but my bracket is with Wheatley for whatever reason.

transience's prediction: Crash with 43%, Wheatley with 30%, Tommy Vercetti with 27%



KP's Analysis

This is a pretty funny match. Wheatley is a fan favorite character from Portal 2, which means he could either be pretty decent or completely bomb. Crash has been one of our perennial losers in these things, but he's never done that bad even in loss, and with Jak and Spyro 'impressing' it looks like he might actually win this. Vercetti has some good results in the past, but the past is the past, and GTA seems to get weaker every year on this site.

I think I'm rolling with Crash>Wheatley>Tommy. I have absolutely no faith in GTA on GameFAQs in 2013. Vercetti got crushed the last time we saw him, and while it was a weird 4-way poll, I don't think he'll fare much better today. Wheatley I think will have just enough strength to beat Tommy but lose to Crash. He has a lot of the recognizability issues GlaDOS has, while also not being GlaDOS. Still, Portal 2 was a big game, so he shouldn't be awful. I think.

Crash is by far the most recognizable option on this poll, which I think will be enough.

Crash - 36%
Wheatley - 34%
Tommy - 30%



Guest’s Analysis - PaulG

Before the contest began, I though Wheatley was a near-lock for first, with Vercetti maybe taking second place away from Crash. I figured with Portal 2 being universally loved that even though he wouldn't be as strong as GlaDOS, he would still be able to win this match with relative ease.

But as the contest has unfolded, platformer characters (Jak, Spyro) have been performing above the expectations given to them, leading me to wonder if Crash can pull it off against these two. The chance is certainly there, but it mainly relies on how strong Wheatley actually is. I still think Wheatley could take this, but at this point the odds on Crash winning the match are close to Wheatley's.

Oh, and given how the likes of Thrall and Heavy have performed, I doubt Vercetti even takes second, now. His hey day has long past, and it took a field expansion in order for him to return. He had looked terrible in his 2007 match, anyway. How do you think another 5 years of age is gonna help him?

PaulG235's Prediction
Wheatley - 37.24%
Crash Bandicoot - 34.96%
Tommy Vercetti - 27.80%



Crew Consensus: It's a tie! Where's Lopen?
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#341 | Dr_Football | Posted 7/21/2013 10:14:04 PM | message detail | quote
he aint breakin this tie!
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#342 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 10:18:20 PM | message detail | quote
If he doesn't show up, I say this should be Lopen's prediction:

Tommy Vercetti - 69.25%
Crash Bandicoot - 21.00%
Wheatley - 9.75%
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#343 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 10:18:42 PM | message detail | quote
Just contacted Lopen and he says he's working on it.
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#344 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 10:21:19 PM | message detail | quote
Lopen's analysis:

Sorry, forgot I hadn't written this up yet before I left!

I don't trust Wheatley to have quite enough exposure/appeal to be able to take the majority of the casual vote here. The Pac-Man vote is going to be present here. Naturally, you think that means I'm going to be taking Crash Bandicoot here. You'd be wrong on that. I think Vercetti is the stronger casual bait character of the two, and he's going to be the one getting the lion's share of the votes.

Vercetti's has missed a lot of contests lately, so it seems like the idea would be to assume his stock has gone down. I disagree that there's enough evidence for that. What he got in 2007 was a bad draw getting GAME FUELED Master Chief to sap all the casuals. What he got in 2005 was a win better than Crash Bandicoot has ever managed. I feel pretty confident in saying Vercetti beats Crash, here.

Sorry boys, tie remains !

Lopen's prediction:
Tommy Vercetti - 38.35%
Wheatley - 34.80%
Crash Bandicoot - 26.85%
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#345 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 10:22:33 PM | message detail | quote
Still a tie.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#346 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 10:23:42 PM | message detail | quote
You can put me on the Wheatley squad in spirit, though, if I have to pick one of your horses

Not that the tie status is going to matter since Vercetti's going to win
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#347 | transience | Posted 7/21/2013 10:28:35 PM | message detail | quote
the more I think about this match, the more I think Wheatley's gonna get killed
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xyzzy
#348 | MenuWars | Posted 7/21/2013 10:36:35 PM | message detail | quote
I've got Vercetti personally, loving your guys analysis a lot of it makes sense, I'm just not ready to discard the (arguably) best loved GTA character, especially not with the Vice City memory provoking V around the corner.

I think it's Vercetti's to lose and that'll only happen if people vote for Crash out of Fanboyism or Wheatley gets rallied.
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#349 | Ngamer64 | Posted 7/21/2013 10:43:52 PM | message detail | quote
Best set of writeups so far this season.
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#350 | Qwaar | Posted 7/21/2013 10:50:16 PM | message detail | quote
I've got Crash -> Wheatley -> Vercetti but damn I have no idea how this will play out.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak

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