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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

#51 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/16/2013 2:18:54 PM | message detail | quote
I think you're overestimating Tharja's competition just a bit.

I mean, I hate to agree with LMS of all people here, but yeah.
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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png
#52 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/16/2013 2:20:35 PM | message detail | quote
Lucina > Tharja > Chrom I could get behind this

(not really, though)
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#53 | Lopen | Posted 7/16/2013 2:23:20 PM | message detail | quote
Yeah I don't really think Tharja > Chrom but I do think it's closer than you'd think. At the very least I would take Tiny Tina over Heavy
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#54 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/16/2013 2:24:01 PM | message detail | quote
#55 | Lopen | Posted 7/16/2013 2:30:44 PM | message detail | quote
It is bad news for Dracula. Dracula vs Barret is once again debatable I think.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#56 | FantasyFreak999 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:09:52 PM | message detail | quote
Wait, I just thought of something... do we now have someone in the contest that even TANNER can beat?
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3DS FC: 3265-5634-7751
#57 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:09:53 PM | message detail | quote
Chrom > Lucina > Tharja very easily.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 12/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo and The Boss
#58 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/16/2013 3:12:15 PM | message detail | quote
FantasyFreak999 posted...
Wait, I just thought of something... do we now have someone in the contest that even TANNER can beat?


Only one way to find out...!
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http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png
#59 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/16/2013 4:18:41 PM | message detail | quote | (edited)
Chester/Mewtwo/Zero (999) - Ctes
Chrom/The Boss/Heavy - Suor
Garrus/Sub-Zero/Frank - Black Turtle
Bowser/Archer/Meta Knight - Tsunami

Sephiroth/Midna/Mac - nameplz
Morrigan/Edgeworth/Agent 47 - ZenOfThunder
Spyro/Clementine/Reyn - LMS
Luigi/Balthier/Jade - t_kizzle
Big Boss/Peacock/Viridian - FantasyFreakVI
CATS/Ness/Locke - Luster Soldier
Elizabeth/Poison/Thrall - pjbasis
Kirby/Terra/Peach - Kotetsu
Wheatley/Crash/Vercetti - paulg235
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#60 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 4:26:24 PM | message detail | quote
The Mana Sword posted...
Also Ike is totally making it to round 2.


Robotnik gon' win.
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#61 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/16/2013 4:26:31 PM | message detail | quote
Master Moltar posted...
Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Phoenix and Nightmare, Kleenex gets the point for Phoenix and Vincent, Lopen gets the point for KOS-MOS, and Moltar gets the point for Dunban

Lopen - 10
Kleenex - 10
Moltar - 7
Leon - 5
Tran - 5
KP - 3
Guest - 3 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami)


Looks like that one should be Marth.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#62 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 4:28:47 PM | message detail | quote
The chances of Tharja being stronger than Chrom or Lucina are basically 0

Lucina>Chrom I might buy
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#63 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 4:31:01 PM | message detail | quote
Lopen posted...
It is bad news for Dracula. Dracula vs Barret is once again debatable I think.


Dracula > Barret
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#64 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/16/2013 4:31:09 PM | message detail | quote
I have Ike > Epona/GlaDOS

That's right
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#65 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 4:32:13 PM | message detail | quote
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5159.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5160.jpg

Frank overperformance, red and contrast-y with blue and blend-y

just sayin'

just sayin'
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~Zen
#66 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 4:33:42 PM | message detail | quote
I think Ike has the worst chance at winning his R2 match, actually. GlaDOS benefits from LFF and is probably just the strongest there outright, Epona could be a literal dark horse for all we know, but Ike most likely isn't strong enough and he doesn't have extenuating factors.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#67 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 4:35:30 PM | message detail | quote
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
I have Ike > Epona/GlaDOS

That's right


I have Epona > GlaDOS/Robotnik

Yup, a horse over a robot and an egg man.
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#68 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/16/2013 4:43:58 PM | message detail | quote
Nice work, Suor! Boss point seems to be on lockdown for the Guest Crew because yours is the highest and it's still well short of her actual percentage; Heavy point isn't a lock yet because his percentage is above your prediction, but he'd have to get up to 24.61 and he's been hovering between 23.84 and 24.13 for close to three hours now--and that 24.13% apex, which was fairly early in that stretch, was the only one above 24.05.

I think it's telling that Chrom's comfortably in second place despite being slightly below the percentage predicted by a crew member who had him in third.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#69 | LeonhartFone | Posted 7/16/2013 4:51:03 PM | message detail | quote
I think GlaDOS will be the weakest of the three but she can still win via LFF. I would actually take Ike to be the strongest one in that match.
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#70 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/16/2013 5:49:04 PM | message detail | quote
KamikazePotato posted...
I think Ike has the worst chance at winning his R2 match, actually. GlaDOS benefits from LFF and is probably just the strongest there outright, Epona could be a literal dark horse for all we know, but Ike most likely isn't strong enough and he doesn't have extenuating factors.


I think the winner of the R2 match is largely dependent on the winner of the 8-11-20 match. If Epona's actually got enough strength just from being an Ocarina of Time character to advance, then yeah, Nintendo LFF makes this an easy win for GLaDOS who might be the strongest outright. If, however, the voters decide that LoZ:OoT or not, it's still a freaking horse, then the match becomes GLaDOS vs. Ike vs. Mordin. While they aren't actually the same type of game--Mass Effect is a WRPG and Portal, strictly speaking, is an FPS--I feel like Mordin probably hurts GLaDOS more than he hurts Ike, who gets the benefit of being the lone Nintendo character with Middle Pic Factor.

In short: GLaDOS > Ike > Epona or GLaDOS > Epona > Ike, but Ike > GLaDOS > Mordin. That's what I think.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#71 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 5:51:21 PM | message detail | quote
*cough*

Epona > GlaDOS > Robotnik
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#72 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/16/2013 9:44:55 PM | message detail | quote
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 17 – (4) Garrus Vakarian vs. (16) Sub-Zero vs. (25) Frank West

Moltar’s Analysis

Garrus
It's calibrations time!

Sub-Zero
Named that because he's weaker than Zero (not 999)

Frank
If this was MvC3, he'd be dead before he got to level 5

Garrus would have a great shot if this was a 1v1 against Frank West, but there's a midcarder in the way and his name is Sub-Zero. At least Frank is used to getting 3rd place in multi-way matches.

Garrus would have to be pretty darn strong to win. Even Shepard would have trouble with Sub-Zero, so no way would I take a party member to challenge him.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sub-Zero > Garrus > Frank

Moltar’s Prediction: Garrus: 37% - Sub-Zero: 47% - Frank: 16%



Lopen’s Analysis

This match is probably split by some amount. Personally I feel Commander Shepard would have a hard time taking Sub-Zero down, so Garrus doesn't really have much of a chance. B8 seems to believe that the fanbase thinks Garrus is the best ever but man I really think that's B8 just has a disproportionate obsession with the guy. Like I don't know when I talk to people about Mass Effect it's never WHOA GARRUS SO COOL. He's probably the guy who gets talked about least... including Kaidyn and Ashley because they at least are hated.

Anyway... yeah, I also feel like with these lower vote totals and the site continuing to age that the more iconic characters are going to do better vs the new blood. We haven't really had this put to the test yet, but yeah I feel like guys like Sub-Zero are really going to benefit from these reduced votals. So even if this were Shep here I'd take Sub-Zero pretty confidently.

Oh and then there's Frank... he's... covered wars, ya know...? And he packs a mean shopping cart assist.

Lopen's prediction:
Sub-Zero - 43.22%
Garrus Vicodin or something - 34.45%
Frank West - 22.33%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Poor Garrus. Got a high seed but a tough draw. Sub-Zero has always been a solid mid-carder in these things, and he’s got MK9 behind him since the last contest (although it’s already been a couple years since the game came out, so I dunno if it’ll have any real impact on his strength now). He won cleanly over Tidus back in 2010, and I just don’t think I’d pull the trigger on Garrus > Tidus. He’s probably the strongest ME squadmate, but Subby’s just a little out of his range. Garrus may have reach, but Sub-Zero’s got flexibility, despite his frigid nature. Oh, and Frank West’s covered wars, ya know.

Leonhart’s Vote: Garrus Vakarian

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Sub-Zero – 44.00%
Garrus Vakarian – 38.00%
Frank West – 18.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This match is going to bum me out because I really want Garrus to win and he won't. Sub-Zero is like KOS-MOS in that he's always consistently impressive, albeit a tier or two ahead of her in strength. Frank is pretty fodder-y, probably only worth about 10 Chesters, so he's not going to be a factor here.

In all likelihood, Garrus is weaker than Shepard. How much stronger is Sub-Zero than Olimar? Almost certainly enough to make up the gap we saw between him and Shepard last week, especially when taking in to account Garrus being weaker. Garrus should make it respectable and maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised, but I think Sub-Zero is too solid to lose this match.

Kleenex's Prediction

Garrus with 37.57%
Sub-Zero with 44.21%
Frank with 18.22%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#73 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/16/2013 9:45:12 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

GARRUS VS. SUB-ZERO IS AN ODDLY EXCITING ONE-ON-ONE MATCH BECAUSE IT LETS US GET AN IDEA OF WHERE MASS EFFECT IS AT. DOES SUB-ZERO WIN? YEAH, UNLESS MASS EFFECT IS THE NEW FINAL FANTASY (WHICH ISN'T COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE). BUT IT'S THE BEST CHANCE WE HAVE OF GETTING AN IDEA OF WHERE SHEPARD IS AT BEFORE HIS MATCH WITH AERIS. GARRUS/MASS EFFECT IS ABOUT THE CLOSEST THING THIS WEBSITE HAS TO NEW BLOOD THAT ISN'T COMPLETELY AWFUL, SO I'M CHEERING FOR THAT MORE THAN ANYTHING. KINDA SAD THAT A SIX YEAR OLD CHARACTER IS CLASSIFIED AS NEW BLOOD, BUT THAT'S HOW GAMEFAQS ROLLS.

I WOULD SAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON MORDIN'S PERFORMANCE BUT HE'S UP AGAINST A HORSE

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: SUB-ZERO WITH 48.95%, GARRUS WITH 34.17%, FRANK WEST WITH 16.88%



KP's Analysis

Before Shepard's performance, I was leaning towards Sub-Zero>Garrus with Garrus having an outside shot at winning. After Shepard's performance, I'm pretty confident in Subby. He has a bunch of legitimate results to his name, taking out Tidus and Master Chief, and while Garrus is going to be the #2 from Mass Effect, there's going to be a big gap between #1 and #2. Shepard didn't exactly wow me, so that reflects poorly on the rest of the cast as well. I don't think Garrus will go down without a fight, and he might even win, but Sub-Zero seems like the clear favorite here.

Frank might be a little better than he was before due to more exposure, but he's still clearly a lot weaker than Garrus and Sub-Zero and the match clearly being between those two probably hurts him a bit as well.

Sub-Zero - 42%
Garrus - 37%
Frank - 21%



Guest’s Analysis - Black Turtle

Garrus Vakarian
Oh don't mind me, I'm just calibrating these x-Stats!

Sub-Zero
Will we see a return of Sub-Shredder?

Frank West
He may have covered wars, but he's in over his head here

Analysis
This match seems pretty straight forward at first glance, Sub-Zero is a proven midcarder while Garrus is side character to Mass Effect. Most people would take Subby over Shepard, at least pre-ME3. The question here is, how will fan-favourite Garrus fare compared to the main character Shepard, and what difference did ME3 make?

To me, the at-worst outright hostile, at-best lukewarm reception of Mass Effect 3 tells me that this should be no contest, although some brave souls have gone with the upset. The question here is how close will Garrus make it? I for one think Garrus will surprise most contest watchers and put up a respectable performance.

TuRtLe's Prediction:
Sub Zero - 43%
Garrus Vakarian - 39%
Frank West - 18%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Sub-Zero
TuRtLe's Vote: My main man Garrus



Crew Consensus: Subby gets a fatality
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#74 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/16/2013 10:03:52 PM | message detail | quote
Ugh, how is it that we all ended up so close to eachother in predictions.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#75 | LeonhartFone | Posted 7/16/2013 10:12:33 PM | message detail | quote
"Garrus is the least talked about squadmate"

Almost as good as "Awakening characters have done fairly well"
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#76 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 7/16/2013 10:17:11 PM | message detail | quote
I appreciate ranking in chesters
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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#77 | Lopen | Posted 7/16/2013 10:55:52 PM | message detail | quote
Well at least I know you're reading, even if it is to mock my completely true statements.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#78 | Lopen | Posted 7/16/2013 11:06:40 PM | message detail | quote
Random note Frank West at 20% is not a Lopen upset special it's a "Lopen didn't care enough to recall just how weak Frank West was"

I probably would've sapped ~10% of him straight into Sub-Zero which would've made my prediction today look pretty nice but what can you do.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#79 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 11:40:29 PM | message detail | quote
Also if you guys missed it, Ulti confirmed with Bacon that we're getting:

Round 2: Face pics
Round 3: Sprite round
Round 4 and on: Freeform

So I guess adjust your round 3 predictions for sprites
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~Zen
#80 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 12:29:23 AM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5157
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5158

Crew Predictions - 15/16

What Happened: Mewtwo destroyed fodder and fodderer, Boss looked good in her match as well

What will Happen: No, Mewtwo isn't challenging Vincent



Crew Prediction Challenge - easy

Kleenex - 15
Moltar - 15
Lopen - 15
KP - 15
Guest - 14
Leon - 14
Tran - 14

Crew Expert Challenge - here too

Kleenex - 11
Tran - 11
KP - 11
Guest - 10
Moltar - 10
Leon - 10
Lopen - 9


Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen for Mewtwo and Chester, KP for Zero, Suor for Boss, Leon for Chrom, and Moltar gets the point for Heavy

Lopen - 12
Kleenex - 10
Moltar - 8
Leon - 6
Tran - 5
KP - 4
Guest - 4 (Kuza, Kotetsu, Tsunami, Suor)
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#81 | Lopen | Posted 7/17/2013 12:32:14 AM | message detail | quote
Hate to screw myself out of points but I took Chrom to win!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#82 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 4:41:40 AM | message detail | quote
And I had Heavy in 2nd!

Kind of strange I get the point for Chrom despite having his placement wrong, but oh well.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg
#83 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:10:58 AM | message detail | quote
Oh hey, Moltar. For the next match, bump Archer up 10% and bump Bowser and Meta Knight down 5% apiece.
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http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif
http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif
#84 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 7:24:31 AM | message detail | quote
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 18 – (7) Bowser vs. (12) Archer vs. (21) Meta Knight

Moltar’s Analysis

Bowser
Incoming SSB4 hype boost have you seen how much better he looks.

Archer
So as I pray, Unlimited Loser Works

Meta Knight
Wishes this was a Brawl match instead of a GameFAQs poll

Well this is easy. Bowser is one of the strongest near-elites we've got here. Meta Knight is well-liked and cool and stuff, but he doesn't even come close to Bowser in terms of contest-related strengths and probably suffers an SFF beatdown on top of that.

Then, there's Archer, who won't even be strong enough to take advantage of a crippled MK because VNs are even more obscure than obscure JRPGs. We've seen Archer in a vote-in poll before and he got a little over 4000 votes. That's probably near his ceiling, and this being a day match and more skewed US audience does him no favors. Reimu did do okay though, so maybe he'll hang around 15% if he gets rallied.

Moltar’s Bracket: Bowser > Meta Knight > Archer

Moltar’s Prediction: Bowser: 61% - Archer: 14% - Meta Knight: 25%



Lopen’s Analysis

Part of me is like "hey cool Fate/Stay Night character" and the other part of me is annoyed because it's not Rin.

Anyway there's an argument to be made that Archer does something resembling okay here because he's got a good design and he's against two Nintendo guys

Unfortunately I think "Nintendo" isn't really a meaningful LFF split and he kinda gets outclassed in this pic as he's against two of the more photogenic entrants in the bracket. So yeah don't expect much, here. Getting over 10% is a victory for Archer. I think he'll manage it just barely.

Lopen's prediction:
Bowser - 53.54%
Meta-Knight - 35.27%
Archer - 11.19%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Poor Meta Knight. Dude just can’t seem to get away from Mario characters. He’s already faced Peach, Wario, and Luigi, and now he’s up against Bowser. We’ve never really gotten a clear read on where he stands, and we’ll just have to wait until next year to find out. We won’t really get to see what Bowser’s made of here either. Despite it being a 3-way, this is going to be more like SFF than LFF for him because Archer may as well not even be here. So if Bowser goes pretty high, I wouldn’t make much of it. Same if he ends up going low and a decent amount of people vote for Archer simply because he’s not Nintendo.

Leonhart’s Vote: Bowser Koopa

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Bowser Koopa – 57.50%
Meta Knight – 26.50%
Archer – 16.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I feel like Bowser is going to really impress here. []eta-Knight is likely to get crushed beneath his might, and it's not like he was ever that strong to begin with. So the question becomes, does Archer have enough of a fanbase to put him over an SFF'd Meat-Knight. I'm thinking no. Unless people think it's the guy from the TV show Archer. Then who knows! But they'd probably have to ignore the picture all together for that to happen.

Probably.

Kleenex's Prediction

Bowser with 64.34%
Archer with 12.79%
Meta-Knight with 22.87%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#85 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 7:24:36 AM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

BOWSER PROBABLY CLEANS UP THIS MATCH. NO ONE HAS REALLY CARED ABOUT META-KNIGHT SINCE BRAWL CAME OUT, AND ARCHER IS PROBABLY WORSE THAN ZERO. THAT DANTE DESIGN AND NINTENDO OVERLAP PROBABLY CARRIES HIM HIGHER THAN HE SHOULD BE, BUT WE'RE TALKING LIKE 15% INSTEAD OF 10%, IF HE'S LUCKY.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: BOWSER WITH 59.24%, META-KNIGHT WITH 24.78%, ARCHER WITH 15.98%



KP's Analysis

Bowser stomps this, so it's all about that second place match. Normally Meta Knight would eat Archer alive, but between SFF, standing out, and Reimu not being godawful for some reason, who knows? Archer might sneak into second here. Meta Knight held up to Luigi SFF fairly well, I thought, so I'll still roll with him. Picking a Visual Novel character to finish anywhere but last seems like a trap.

Bowser - 53%
Meta Knight - 27%
Archer - 20%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

So here we have a match that’s a lot like Barret/Layton/Reimu, except it isn’t really very much like it at all other than one of the characters having no games officially released outside of Japan. Bowser’s probably stronger than Barret and Meta Knight’s definitely stronger than Layton, but then again, Archer’s probably stronger than Reimu. I wouldn’t be surprised if Archer has fans who didn’t even realize he was from a video game until they saw him here. If Archer performs well, it could lead to other video game-turned-anime characters getting into the next contest, at which point Bacon would officially be out of excuses for not allowing all fictional characters in.

And even though he’s against tougher competition, he’s got some factors in his favor. He’s got middle pic factor going on, not to mention the other two characters will be SFFing each other. He’s also got an awesome character design, but then again, so do his opponents. All in all, I’d say this match is ripe for an overperformance…which still won’t be quite enough to get him out of third place! …Or will it?

Prediction: Bowser with 55.1%, Meta Knight with 22.5%, Archer with 22.4%. It’s going to be hard for me to root against a Kirby character, but it’s for the greater good!


Crew Consensus: Bowser burns the competition.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#86 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 7:45:30 AM | message detail | quote
Lopen posted...
Well at least I know you're reading, even if it is to mock my completely true statements.


I always make sure to read your analyses because they're good for a mockery or two.
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http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif
#87 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:10 AM | message detail | quote
I'm just really happy to see Archer here :3
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#88 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/17/2013 10:41:32 AM | message detail | quote
Dat Frank West overperformance, eh Zen
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#89 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 10:58:51 AM | message detail | quote
For some reason I thought Archer's match was at night. Whoops
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#90 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 11:01:35 AM | message detail | quote
whoops indeed
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#91 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 11:59:49 AM | message detail | quote
Glad I edited my prediction for this match!
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
#92 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 12:01:41 PM | message detail | quote
Yeah I would be pretty embarrassed if I only had Archer at 6%!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#93 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 12:02:38 PM | message detail | quote
#94 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/17/2013 12:06:23 PM | message detail | quote
So are we still on the Morrigan > Edgey > Agent 47 train or what
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#95 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 12:09:29 PM | message detail | quote
Still?

Were we ever on it?

If so, why?
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
#96 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/17/2013 4:28:13 PM | message detail | quote
Master Moltar posted...
Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen for Mewtwo and Chester, KP for Zero, Suor for Boss, Leon for Chrom, and Moltar gets the point for Heavy


Dammit the Guest Crew can't catch a break. .23% boost for Heavy over the final thirteen updates and it took until the very last update for the point for Heavy to switch from Suor to Moltar.

Oh, hey, we picked up another one because BT had the highest percentage on Garrus and not one of you predicted him breaking 40%. Now I feel bad about breaking the streak.

LeonhartFour posted...
And I had Heavy in 2nd!

Kind of strange I get the point for Chrom despite having his placement wrong, but oh well.


Yeah, I commented on that earlier. Boss outperformed expectations so drastically that only someone with Chrom below Heavy could have a low enough number--on the Crew, anyway; I saw some Oracle predictions that would've been pretty good if they'd switched their numbers for Chrom and Heavy (Well, not by the end--still can't believe Chrom ended up under 30%).
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#97 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 9:53:15 PM | message detail | quote
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 19 – (1) Sephiroth vs. (18) Midna vs. (27) Little Mac

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth
I love watching Sephy disappoint in contests

Midna
Midna vs Epona which sidekick ya got?

Little Mac
The ultimate underdog...doesn't really have a shot at an upset here.

This is probably the strongest 18 and 27 seed pairing in the contest, so Sephiroth isn't going to go crazy here. Midna has put up some decent performances in the past, most recent being 37% on Sora. Mac is fodder, but the kind of fodder that could blowout some of the super fodder in this contest.

Based on past performances and being a Zelda character, Midna should have second place locked up over Mac.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sephiroth > Midna > Little Mac

Moltar’s Prediction: Sephiroth: 57% - Midna: 27% - Little Mac: 16%



Lopen’s Analysis

Time to see how deep the anti-ff7 vote goes this year with the guy who always suffers the most from it.

I give it 27% of the vote + 13% combined strength of the other two. Seph ain't gonna look too great all things considered. I also think Little Mac overperforms as I see him being the more appealing anti-vote target.

Lopen's prediction:
Sephiroth - 60.60%
Midna - 23.24%
Little Mac - 16.16%



Leonhart’s Analysis

FFVII hasn’t really done a great job so far at scoring big blowouts. Aerith and Barret barely scored 50% and Vincent got 53% in his match. Of course, Sephiroth is noticeably stronger than any of those three, but on the same note, he’s probably the easiest person to anti-vote in the contest, even more than Cloud, I’d wager. I’m really not sure what to expect from Sephy here, but I’m not going to be all doom and gloom if he doesn’t do that great since FFVII isn’t capable of blowing out fodder anymore. FFVII proves its strength against characters who are actually worth a crap, and despite Midna being from Zelda, she doesn’t qualify. Cloud tripled her in both of their 4-way matches in 2008. Plus, Little Mac might leech Midna a little bit since he’s Nintendo, despite Punch-Out being its own thing, which will help Sephy a bit. Either way, I expect to hear a lot of people crying about how he’s in trouble against Kirby/Big Boss after this match.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sephiroth

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Sephiroth – 58.00%
Midna – 25.00%
Little Mac – 17.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I have a feeling this board vote is going to be brutal. The match itself is pretty clear-cut. Sephiroth will beat Midna, Midna will beat Little Mac. The question then becomes how much with Sephiroth stink up the joint. I don't really know what a "good" percentage to shoot for here is. It honestly doesn't even matter because Sephiroth's path is pretty set in stone. People will use this as a harbinger of things to come for Cloud and Vincent, though. Whatever. BORING, NEXT.

Kleenex's Prediction

Sephiroth with 60.47%
Midna with 26.53%
Little Mac with 13.00%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#98 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 9:53:36 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

THIS SEEMS LIKE THE ANNUAL TRADITION WHERE SEPHIROTH GETS EMBARRASSED EN ROUTE TO GETTING HUMILIATED BY SNAKE WHILE EXTHA THROWS A TEMPER TANTRUM EVEN THOUGH HE'S LIKE 26 YEARS OLD NOW. I DON'T EVEN KNOW IF SNAKE IS SET TO FACE OFF AGAINST SEPHIROTH BUT THAT'S HAPPENED LIKE 7 YEARS IN A ROW AND IT WOULD BE A SHAME IF WE STOPPED. WHAT'S THAT? WE DON'T HAVE ANNUAL CHARACTER BATTLES ANYMORE? SNAKE'S BEEN STRONGER THAN SEPHIROTH FOR MORE YEARS THAN THE OTHER WAY AROUND? SORRY, I STILL LIKE TO PRETEND THAT IT'S 2005 AND THAT NOTHING HAS CHANGED. AFTER ALL, GAMEFAQS IS SOME KIND OF WEIRD TIME VORTEX WHERE EVERYONE STILL THINKS FF7 AND OCARINA OF TIME ARE PLAYABLE, ENJOYABLE VIDEO GAMES, SO WHY NOT?

BECAUSE OF THAT, LOOK FOR MIDNA TO GET TO LIKE 30% FOR NO DAMN REASON.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: SEPHIROTH WITH 58%, MIDNA WITH 27%, LITTLE MAC WITH 15%



Guest’s Analysis - nameplz

In the past few years I’ve often gotten an easy match wrong and made myself look like an idiot. That will not be the case this year.

This is just about the easiest round 1 match out there. Seph easily takes out Midna and Mac, and Midna easily takes out Mac.

Sephiroth - 60.38%
Midna - 26.17%
Little Mac - 13.45%

I kind of wish Mac wasn’t in here so we could better see how strong Midna is compared to Epona, but given how weak Mac is, him being in the match shouldn’t make much of a difference.



Crew Consensus: Seph kills the competition
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#99 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 9:55:56 PM | message detail | quote
Master Moltar posted...
SNAKE'S BEEN STRONGER THAN SEPHIROTH FOR MORE YEARS THAN THE OTHER WAY AROUND?


Whoa.
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Guess who I am!
http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif
#100 | Dr_Football | Posted 7/17/2013 9:59:41 PM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

THIS SEEMS LIKE THE ANNUAL TRADITION WHERE SEPHIROTH GETS EMBARRASSED EN ROUTE TO GETTING HUMILIATED BY SNAKE WHILE EXTHA THROWS A TEMPER TANTRUM EVEN THOUGH HE'S LIKE 26 YEARS OLD NOW. I DON'T EVEN KNOW IF SNAKE IS SET TO FACE OFF AGAINST SEPHIROTH BUT THAT'S HAPPENED LIKE 7 YEARS IN A ROW AND IT WOULD BE A SHAME IF WE STOPPED. WHAT'S THAT? WE DON'T HAVE ANNUAL CHARACTER BATTLES ANYMORE? SNAKE'S BEEN STRONGER THAN SEPHIROTH FOR MORE YEARS THAN THE OTHER WAY AROUND? SORRY, I STILL LIKE TO PRETEND THAT IT'S 2005 AND THAT NOTHING HAS CHANGED. AFTER ALL, GAMEFAQS IS SOME KIND OF WEIRD TIME VORTEX WHERE EVERYONE STILL THINKS FF7 AND OCARINA OF TIME ARE PLAYABLE, ENJOYABLE VIDEO GAMES, SO WHY NOT?

BECAUSE OF THAT, LOOK FOR MIDNA TO GET TO LIKE 30% FOR NO DAMN REASON.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: SEPHIROTH WITH 58%, MIDNA WITH 27%, LITTLE MAC WITH 15%


its gonna be hard to top this analysis
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.

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