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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew

#301 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/12/2013 6:07:23 AM | message detail | quote
Draven is the Guru favorite, yes.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#302 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:12:27 AM | message detail | quote
'well then'
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#303 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 7/12/2013 7:16:57 AM | message detail | quote
Never had any doubts, of course!
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#304 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:26:02 AM | message detail | quote
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 8 – (4) Yuri Lowell vs. (15) Ryu vs. (24) Face McShooty

Moltar’s Analysis

Yuri
I love Yuri (take that however you want)

Ryu
Ordinary blowout for an ordinary guy

Face
why is this a name that exists

Well this is easy. Ryu has been a solid upper-midcarder for years while Yuri nearly got quadded by Tifa in his only match. Granted, that was probably because of SFF, but I don't think there was too much of it.

After seeing Tina the other day, Face could take second here. However, Yuri, the main character of his JRPG, is a good step up from Tharja, so I think he holds on to second.

Moltar’s Bracket: Ryu > Yuri > Face

Moltar’s Prediction: Yuri: 23% - Ryu: 58% - Face: 19%



Lopen’s Analysis

Despite Tiny Tina looking competent, I don't think Face McShooty is going to get much any of that. Pretty sure his character is more or less meaningless in borderlands and that the only reason he's in is his name. This guy is going to be all joke votes and nothing else. I like to think GameFAQs has more evolved humor than LOL THAT NAME but I mean... I saw some topics on b8 saying how hilarious it is so I just don't know.

I like Yuri to win it, in any case. He's not going to be a powerhouse but that very limited Tales power + a good design should be enough for second over an ugly 4th tier Borderlands character with a dumb name

Oh also there's Ryu. Victory means nothing to him but he's going to get it in a walk even if he walks out with his hobo bag just an hour in. I do think his blowout potential is a bit limited because he's a fighting game character, but given the competition he's still going to crush. Maybe he'll steal some joke votes too because let's face it fighting champion hobos are funny, aren't they?

Lopen's prediction:
Ryu - 60.45%
Yuri Lowell - 22.22%
Face McYoushouldfeelbadifyoulaughathisdumbname - 17.33%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Here’s a chance for Ryu to look good, and I need him to look good to build some steam for my upset train over Mega Man X next round. Yuri Lowell was on the receiving end of the biggest blowout of the 2010 contest, and while there may have been some RPG SFF involved, it certainly wasn’t significant enough to prevent him from being anything other than very weak. Tales characters just are not strong on this site. That being said, he could still get second place because Borderlands fans assure me Face McShooty is this contest’s Sandal. I think the ridiculous name will probably get him some votes, but yeah, he probably gets last. So rejoice, Tales fans! You’ll actually beat SOMETHING this year!

Leonhart’s Vote: Ryu

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Ryu – 68.25%
Yuri Lowell – 20.25%
Face McShooty – 11.50%



Kleenex’s Analysis

FACE MCSHOOTY. You shoot that guy in the face in Borderlands 2. It's humor. Get it? Because his name is FACE MCSHOOTY. It's high-brow stuff, I assure you. THe guru nomination is here too. He's a Tales character. You remember those guys, right? Sometimes they make round 2! But only if they're from Symphonia. Whoops! Can you guess how this match will go? SHORYUKEN!

Kleenex's Prediction

Yuri with 22.73%
Ryu with 61.96%
FACE with 15.31%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#305 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:26:10 AM | message detail | quote
Transience’s Analysis

The world’s largest fighting game tournament, the Evolution Championship Series (EVO) scheduled to take place July 12-14 at the Paris Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, is set to hold a record-number of competitors and spectators, EVO organizers tell GameSpot. EVO has exploded in growth since the 2009 release of Capcom's Street Fighter IV, continuing from last year's record numbers.

There are 6,097 tournament entries this year across all nine games, which include Super Street Fighter IV: Arcade Edition, Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3, Super Smash Bros. Melee, Injustice: Gods Among Us, Tekken Tag Tournament 2, Mortal Kombat 9, Persona 4 Arena, and King of Fighters XIII.

EVO founder Tom Cannon says this should be between 4,000 and 5,000 individual players [Ed. Note: this figure is actually 3,538 exactly, still a record-breaking figure]. Not only does this surpass last year's EVO, it also makes it the most competitors at a single event in competitive gaming and eSports history. Competitors will play over 30,000 matches over the three days.

"I think the numbers just go to show that fighting game fans love to compete," Cannon told GameSpot. "Most of our players know they have almost no shot at winning the tournament. They use the experience to see how they measure up against the best in the world. The open bracket is incredibly important for us. It comes from our arcade roots, where anyone with a quarter could step up and try to knock of the guy on that cabinet."

EVO has also sold more spectator passes than in any year previously, with the finals on Sunday having sold out months ago. While EVO has found a solution to sell tickets at the door on Friday and Saturday, it will just not be possible on Sunday.

"At a certain point we all figured it couldn't get any bigger, but every year the players and fans defy expectations," Cannon said regarding the unexpected growth of the event each year. "It's been really rewarding and inspiring to have been a part of something that's lasted for so long and grown into a giant celebration of these great games and competitive gaming in general."

Players from over 51 countries will be attending this year's EVO, featuring the world’s best fighting game players across multiple titles. Reigning Street Fighter IV and Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3 Champions Sun Woo "Infiltration" Lee and Ryan "Filipino Champ" Ramirez will return to defend their titles. Multiple-time and game EVO Champion, Street Fighter legend Daigo Umehara, looks to take back the crown from Infiltration, while the world's current best Marvel player Christopher "NYChrisG" Gonzalez looks for his first EVO gold.

transience's prediction: Ryu with 55.66%, Yuri Lowell with 23.11%, Face McShooty with 21.23%



KP's Analysis

Tina had a 'good' showing so I guess Face McShooty can win? I'm just not going to acknowledge that. There's a chance that people think his LOL SO RANDOM name is funny and vote for him, but I think the odds are a lot higher of Face McShooty being the new Sandal than being decent, so I'll just stick with Yuri. Obscure guys have been looking good recently anyway.
I wonder how high Ryu can go.

Ryu - 60%
Yuri - 22%
Face - 17%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#306 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:27:19 AM | message detail | quote
Guest’s Analysis - superange128

The one bad thing about heavily rallying (or in this case choosing the Guru nomination for) a weak character is that a lot of strong characters tend to get underseeded. With that, it's pretty obvious Ryu's gonna dominate the hell out of the match.

Thankfully, we actually have a somewhat decent match for 2nd and 3rd match for our excellent Expert Challenge.

Both are relatively niche characters but both have a relatively good chance of getting second place to me.

Tales of Vesperia is the much less played game but Yuri Lowell is one of the most universally-liked Tales characters which says a lot since even many popular characters have their haters. If it came down to characters feel very passionatley for it's not too much of stretch to pick Yuri for second.

On the other hand, Tales characters are known to be pretty bad in almost every match they are in. Borderlands 2 was the Game of the Year on this site so it's more likely that the average voter would know who Face is over Yuri. Claptrap actually didn't do too badly before Borderlands 2 came out, however Face McShooty seems like one of those “joke” characters where people would rather vote for the more 'legit' option in Ryu (of course I don't know for sure since I haven't played Borderlands 2).

As said, the match for second can go either way and I'm just siding with Yuri out of bias.

Yuri Lowell - 14.00%
Ryu - 72.50%
Face McShooty - 13.50%



Crew Consensus: Ryu shoryukens the competition.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#307 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/12/2013 7:51:16 AM | message detail | quote
aw yeah go my Draven > Jak > Chie Expert Challenge pick.
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#308 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/12/2013 10:48:27 AM | message detail | quote
oh my percents don't add up to 100

give +.3333333% to all of them I guess
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#309 | transcience | Posted 7/12/2013 11:05:33 AM | message detail | quote
next
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#310 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/12/2013 11:07:08 AM | message detail | quote
Yuri and McShooty stalled at the last minute

After last night I don't know man!!!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#311 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/12/2013 12:23:28 PM | message detail | quote
what a nice, relaxing match
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#312 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/12/2013 1:26:05 PM | message detail | quote
Man, nobody picked Face to finish 2nd.

Kinda surprised!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#313 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/12/2013 1:27:34 PM | message detail | quote
literally face mcshooty
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#314 | ZFS | Posted 7/12/2013 3:49:40 PM | message detail | quote
did i just see an evo press release

shill alert
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#315 | transience | Posted 7/12/2013 4:01:21 PM | message detail | quote
nee beat marn, all is right with the world
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xyzzy
#316 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/12/2013 4:36:42 PM | message detail | quote
LeonhartFour posted...
No, Rinoa's definitely getting SFF'd.

Lopen and tranny pretty much have it right.

Not saying Rinoa's not weak, but Hero wouldn't beat Rinoa if this was 1-on-1.


Yeah, definitely what happened was a combination of underestimating Hero and underestimating just how badly Aerith was going to SFF Rinoa. Rinoa is essentially FFVIII's Aerith, which means there's probably a larger overlap in their fanbases than there would be even between Rinoa and another FFVII character even though sheer contest strength means that many of them would put up a better percentage in a 1v1 than Aerith could.ZFS posted...
Lopen posted...
I disagree that Hero is significantly stronger than we think he is. I think the overlap is just higher than expected.

I really do honestly think Tanner scores 17-18% in this match.


I think you're way off here. I mean, Hero isn't going to take on big names, but people were a bit too caught up in the idea that no one knows what Dragon Quest is. It's hardly an unknown series outside of Japan, and the site is trending more 'hardcore' than ever with its users.


Yeah, this too. That's why I wasn't sold on the "Rinoa will beat Hero even with Aerith in the poll" hype. DQV Hero is well-known enough that he won't get completely destroyed, though he'd probably need a night match where he can take advantage of a strong non-American vote to have a shot of actually winning against anything of value in a 1v1.

nintendogirl2 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
This is the most bizarre trend chart I've ever done.

It's weird. I voted at 4:30 at Jak had 40% and Draven was still losing to Chie. I get home and he's ahead.

I assume either rallying and/or foul play was at work, but this was kind of what we expected might happen with League of Legends.


Massive rallying on an unprecedented scale.


Draven actually lost an update to both other characters by over 100 votes shortly after the freeze. That's probably got to be one of the worst board/bracket votes ever by an eventual winner. I mean if you just take into account pre-freeze, far stronger characters have had bad board/bracket votes, but Jak opened up a doubling on Draven within 20 minutes and still had it until just before the 3-hour mark. And Draven won.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#317 | Achromatic | Posted 7/12/2013 4:53:10 PM | message detail | quote
Actually Rinoa didn't get sff'd by Aerith nearly as bad as some ffviii has in the past to ffvii. All Hero strength, baby.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#318 | MasterMoltar | Posted 7/12/2013 10:24:40 PM | message detail | quote
Not home yet, write-ups may be late
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no space
all business
#319 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/12/2013 10:25:53 PM | message detail | quote
Achromatic posted...
Actually Rinoa didn't get sff'd by Aerith nearly as bad as some ffviii has in the past to ffvii. All Hero strength, baby.


I wanna believe that, too.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#320 | LeonhartFone | Posted 7/12/2013 10:26:14 PM | message detail | quote
But how will we know who we all favor to win before the match starts?
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#321 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 11:07:05 PM | message detail | quote
Division 1: Round 1 - Match 9 – (7) Mega Man X vs. (12) Welkin Gunther vs. (21) Jigglypuff

Moltar’s Analysis

Mega Man X
Now making an appearance in Smash as an alt color!

Welkin
obscure jrpg character #309832948

Jigglypuff
The last of the original SSB 12 makes it into a contest

Man this match sucks. Not in the 'none of these characters deserve to move on [except chie because she's awesome]' sense, but in the 'it's boring and predictable' sense.

MMX, Mega Man proxy or not, is far, far above these other characters. Even most Pokemon fans are going to abandon Jiggly for MMX here, but the diehards will still get her to at least take second.

Then the super hipster JRPG diehards, which is practically nobody, will vote for their guy, hoping that he can at least end up in the double digits for percent.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mega Man X > Jigglypuff > Welkin

Moltar’s Prediction: Mega Man X: 57% - Welkin: 15% - Jigglypuff: 28%



Lopen’s Analysis

Cut and dry match unless Jigglypuff decides she wants to invoke POKEFEAR and get some 4chan nonsense or whatnot. If this was a four way or had a more competent third wheel I might give it some thought, but as it stands with old bug catcher here there isn't much chance for that. Somehow I'm thinking Jigglypuff should still do pretty well, vote ins from last contest be damned.

Lopen's prediction:
Mega Man X - 48.88%
Jigglypuff - 37.10%
Welkin - 14.02%



Leonhart’s Analysis

And with this, the Smash Bros. fanbase can finally rest easy (get it) knowing every one of the original characters has now made a contest. It only took nine tries and expanding the field to 241 characters, but Jigglypuff finally made it! Enjoy your stay and your second place finish. Unless Jiggs can 60/40 Pokemon Trainer Red (which I kinda doubt), there’s really no debate here. I just hope MMX ends up underperforming relative to expectations to make me feel good about my Ryu upset, although with both characters being newbies, our expectations are just guesses anyway, so whatever.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mega Man X

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Mega Man X – 55.50%
Jigglypuff – 35.50%
Welkin Gunther – 9.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

After all the nonsense that went on yesterday this should be a nice, boring, predictable match. X is easily the strongest entrant in the poll today, it's probably not even close. Jigglypuff is easily the second strongest entrant in the poll. She's never been in a contest before, but she's in Smash Bros. and is a Pokemon and is not Welkin Gunther.

Welkin Gunther, however, is Welkin Gunther, and as a result will get last place. Sucks for that dude.

Kleenex's Prediction

X with 54.45%
Welkin with 16.04%
Jigglypuff with 29.51%



Transience’s Analysis

I LOOKED AT THIS MATCH AND THOUGHT IT WOULD GO ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY'S MATCH UNTIL I REMEMBERED THAT GAMEFAQS HAS A CRUSH FOR RANDOM POKE THINGS. I CAN'T REALLY FAULT THEM FOR JIGGLYPUFF THOUGH BECAUSE I LOVE PICKING THE PUFF AND TROLLING ZFS IN SMASH. THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR A POKEMON TO GET 30% IN A MATCH WITH MEGA MAN, BUT I'M SURE IT WILL BE FOR THIS AUDIENCE. JIGGLYPUFF MAY EVEN START OUT WITH THE LEAD FOR A FEW SECONDS. AT LEAST IT'S MEGA MAN X THAT'S GETTING EMBARRASSED AND NOT THE SUPERIOR CLASSIC MEGA MAN.

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: MEGA MAN X WITH 48.92%, JIGGLYPUFF WITH 35.35%, OTHER GUY WITH 15.73%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#322 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 11:07:21 PM | message detail | quote
KP's Analysis

Mega Man X is going to win pretty easily.

On a weird day I could see Welkin getting 2nd here. Random RPG characters have been doing decently well, and Valkyria Chronicles does have that win over Disgaea in the Games Contest. Jigglypuff has only been in one vote-in poll where she looked awful, although that poll had a lot of Pokemon in it. Maybe Mega Man X SFFs Jiggly here too, who knows?

At the end of the day though, I think Jiggs is just way more recognizable than Welkin even if no one really cares about her. She has Pokemon and SSB backing, and Welkin can't match that.

X - 50%
Jigglypuff - 30%
Welkin - 20%


Guest’s Analysis - Ctes

This match isn't really too interesting in itself, but it will be interesting to predict Ryu/MMX and I guess Draven might be a factor there too? We can get back to that next round. It might also be too hard to judge because we haven't seen Jigglypuff and Welkin in these things before.

So how to try and predict our newcomer's respective strengths. I think Jigglypuff is a bit above Mudkip in terms of strength since it's first gen, it's in all three SSB (oh hey, original set completed) and it also does have some hardcore fans though that wont matter too much. Mega Man X an Mudkip had met before, Mega Man X killed the guy, but Mario and Zelda was there, so obviously Mudkip would have done a bit better without having LFF all around itself. Combine that with the low percentages we'd had so far and I believe Jigglypuff can impress here. Not come anywhere near close to victory, but impress. It's a shame it started out against a near-elite though, Pokemon are always fun. What's with new Pokemon being fed to Mega Mans anyway? Welkin is probably quite weak and takes easy last place. I wont be taken by complete surprise if Mega Man X completely dominated, but seeing a 1st gen 3/3 time smash representative get crushed would be weird in any case. Jiggs could go both above and below the following easily. You never know with those damn pokes.

Mega Man X – 51%
Jigglypuff – 35%
Welkin Gunther– 14%



Crew Consensus: MMX wil-is winning.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#323 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/12/2013 11:48:31 PM | message detail | quote
pretty good from X here
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#324 | Achromatic | Posted 7/12/2013 11:50:12 PM | message detail | quote
X is telling the crew to blow him.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#325 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/13/2013 1:18:08 AM | message detail | quote
Woah, this is probably the most impressive result of the contest so far. The Ryu upset looks sort of dead in the water now.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#326 | OlDirtyNumbers | Posted 7/13/2013 2:48:37 AM | message detail | quote | (edited)
X benefiting from that MM smash trailer obv
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I keep coming back here where everything... slipped
Ahhahhahaa
#327 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 2:48:51 AM | message detail | quote
Looks good for X however you slice it but I gotta believe a lot of this is that Jigglypuff actually is as weak as the vote ins last year made her look, for whatever reason. I mean she's barely doubling Welkin here. Still though I mean, I'd argue this showing is stronger than Link's, on paper. Not to hype MMX > Link or anything... just sayin.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#328 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 3:34:44 AM | message detail | quote
Finally didn't trust blowouts and this happens. Jiggs sucked. X > Ryu lets go!
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:32:41 AM | message detail | quote
KamikazePotato posted...
The Ryu upset looks sort of dead in the water now.


:(

But yeah, now we're seeing why Jigglypuff never made it before now despite being one of the original Smash Bros. Part of this is just Jigglypuff being weak, despite Pokemon being at the peak of its powers.

Which Pokemon that have been in a contest so far would you take Jiggs to beat? Nidoran F? Is that even up for debate?
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#330 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 4:35:10 AM | message detail | quote
I think 1v1 Jigglypuff could beat Bidoof and Mudkip too. It's just they look better in multiways because they get rallies/joke votes. 1v1 Puff probably wins though.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#331 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 4:42:06 AM | message detail | quote
Those two both beat Zelda with Link and Mario in the poll. Could Jiggs do that?
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#332 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:47:07 AM | message detail | quote
I dunno. I think Jigglypuff is just legitimately disliked by the Pokemon fanbase. For the most part, Bidoof and Mudkip are, too, probably, but they'd get enough support to win that match, I think.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#333 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 4:47:44 AM | message detail | quote
I said more or less "Jigglypuff probably wins 1v1 despite them doing better in multiways due to jokes and rallies being better there" and you ask if Jigglypuff could do something those two did in multiways? What do you think my answer is going to be?
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#334 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:51:49 AM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3691

Look at Mudkip doubling Jigglypuff despite Missingno being in the poll...!

what a mess that poll was

also LOL Dan there's your preview for the day match
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#335 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 4:53:26 AM | message detail | quote
Moltar drop Caim percentage by 10 and up Drac and Lucina by 5 each if you could.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#336 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/13/2013 4:59:20 AM | message detail | quote | (edited)
At least I wasn't the only one to overrate the puffball. I'm feeling very confident about MMX in round two now, unless Pokemon in general turns out to be a bust (my bracket would be in ruins, but I would be delighted, not because I dislike the series, but I'm a little bit tired of it always being the "amazing story" of every* recent contest).

Edit: Except GOTD!
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#337 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:03:53 AM | message detail | quote
I probably would've gone higher on MMX if I wasn't being hopeful he'd underperform to make Ryu's upset bid look better, and there was no way I was taking Welkin to do better than 10-12%, so the only thing I could do was up Jiggly's percentage to compensate!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#338 | transience | Posted 7/13/2013 8:38:54 AM | message detail | quote
wow, MMX doing work here. makes me feel better about my MM/Zero/Charizard pick.
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xyzzy
#339 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 8:40:14 AM | message detail | quote
MMX had a doubling before the Euro vote shaved off a couple percent, too.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#340 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/13/2013 9:24:46 AM | message detail | quote
Division 2: Round 1 - Match 10 – (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (18) Fei Fong Wong vs. (27) Dan Hibiki

Moltar’s Analysis

Sonic
I think that right now, according to the Sonic Cycle, he's cool again

Fei
obscure jrpg character #2903584

Dan
also known as 'the man'

I completely forgot that Fei got 14% in a match with Knuckles, Zelda, and Mario. He should be able to get at least 20% in a match with only three characters that are weaker than that bunch.

Dan's only contest showing is in the rivalry rumble, which isn't the best thing to draw strength from but man did he look awful there. Plus, fighting game fans are too busy with EVO to care about supporting him now so he's looking good for last.

Of course, Sonic steamrolls everything here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sonic > Fei > Dan

Moltar’s Prediction: Sonic: 62% - Fei: 23% - Dan: 15%



Lopen’s Analysis

Sonic crushes these two. Straight up 1v1 I think Dan probably beats Fei but Sonic will be sapping like 70% of the vote here so I think the more resilient RPG fanbase will carry him here. Probably ends up being close though.

If GameFAQs had taste Dan would get joke votes. This is the joke character. They must all be intimidated by the manliness of Saikyo style.

Lopen's prediction:

Sonic the Hedgehog - 65.93%
Fei Fong Wong - 18.32%
Dan Hibiki - 15.75%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Pretty straightforward match here. It’s possible Sonic ends up looking kinda bad since it seems like no one is capable of big blowouts in this contest, but I wouldn’t take too much from this match in regards to his chances against Vincent/Bowser. As for Fei vs. Dan, I always thought Fei seemed like the obvious choice. He looked halfway decent in his one contest match, which featured Mario/Zelda/Knuckles, which is more than you can say about any of Dan’s polls. Just take a look at them. They speak for themselves.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sonic the Hedgehog

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Sonic the Hedgehog – 63.00%
Fei Fong Wong – 23.00%
Dan Hibiki – 14.00%



Kleenex’s Analysis

New division, new brands of fodder to get blown out by the top characters. Sonic gets first here, there's nothing to really debate about that. The real fight is for second and third, but honestly it probably won't even be that much of a fight. Fei and Dan have only been in one contest each (well, Dan was more like half a contest). Fei, despite getting 4th place in his match, ended up impressing to whatever extent 14% in a 4-way poll can impress. Dan stunk up the joint in the Rivaly contest which may or may not have actually even happened. Xenogears is still beloved by a decent chunk of the fanbase here and Street Fighter characters that aren't Ryu are not.

Kleenex's Prediction

Sonic with 63.23%
Fei with 20.31%
Dan with 16.46%


Transience’s Analysis

TWO CHARACTERS THAT I'D LIKE TO SEE DO WELL, AND THEN SONIC

FEI IS ONE OF THOSE SQUARE CHARACTERS THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DECENT ONCE UPON A TIME BUT IS JUST TOO OLD TO REALLY SHINE TODAY. SERGE, AYA, FEI, ZIDANE -- ALL GUYS WHO JUST NEVER GOT INTO OTHER GAMES. XENOGEARS IS SOMEHOW 15 YEARS OLD NOW. I HOPE HE DOES REALLY WELL.

DAN IS DAN -- HE PROBABLY DOES DECENT HERE ACTUALLY. I THINK I SIDE WITH FEI TO TAKE SECOND THOUGH.

HOPEFULLY SONIC SUCKS

TRANSIENCE'S PREDICTION: SONIC WITH 51.43%, FEI WITH 24.78%, DAN WITH 23.89%
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#341 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/13/2013 9:25:05 AM | message detail | quote
KP's Analysis

Sonic is the 1 Seed. Fei is the main character of a Square PS1 JRPG and looked sort of okay in his one poll. Dan is a 'fan favorite' joke character from a fighting game series and has looked like garbage. There's a pecking order to this sort of thing.

Sonic - 63%
Fei - 23%
Dan - 14%



Guest’s Analysis - DChemist

Let me start off by saying "Thank you" to SBAllen for giving us the EXPERT CHALLENGE. Without it we would be lost and bored out of our minds picking just the winner of a 3-pack. The Blue Blur will take 1st place easy in this 12-hour Day match. He's coming in hot off some pretty successful releases and I don't see him missing a step this early in the bracket. As one of 9 top seeds in this contest, it'll be interesting to see how he compares in performance to the other Noble Nine characters. Link started it off and got 72.67% against fodder. Pretty sure Sonic's opponents would defeat the likes of Isaac (BOI) and Tingle, so he won't be matching Link's mark this round. I don't think anyone will actually.

In the 2-spot (Middle Character Factor) we got Fei Fong Wong, the main protagonist of Xenogears. If you ask anybody who knows me, they will tell you I am a HUGE Xenogears fan. It's my favorite RPG that I've ever played and I've played many. While Fei Fong Wong wouldn't be my choice for the best character in Xenogears (hello, Citan Uzuki), he still is pretty damn interesting. I'd rank him 3rd behind Citan and Grahf, but that's just me. His alter-ego is pretty badass and if he had Weltall, the Slayer of God, in his match pic he would take 2nd place easily. Who doesn't like mechs? It's been along time since Xenogears release though, and being thrown up against an icon; I'm just happy he made the bracket.

Coming in at the 3-spot is Dan Hibiki of Street Fighter infamy. I don't know why this guy made the contest over some other big SF names (i.e. Ken Masters, Guile, Akuma, M. Bison). He did get the lowest of low seeds though and is known to be the "joke" character of the Street Fighter universe. While not being in the biggest fighting game out right now (UMvC3), his last appearance is in SSF4. Street Fighter fans may come out and vote for him cause he is a SF character. Then again, Sonic is in the poll and is the biggest casual vote-getter among the three. The real treat of this match is Fei vs. Dan. And I think you already know where I'm going with this. MIDDLE CHARACTER FACTOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Dilated One predicts: Sonic > Fei > Dan

Sonic the Hedgehog - 60.85%
Fei Fong Wong - 20.42%
Dan Hibiki - 17.73%



Crew Consensus: Sonic speeds by.
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#342 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 9:27:21 AM | message detail | quote
Nobody taking Dan to get second

Disappointing

I'm not sure how I feel about this Crew hivemind
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#343 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 9:31:20 AM | message detail | quote | (edited)
In fact we're such a hivemind that KP and I literally predicted the exact same thing and Moltar is only 1% off from us

what is this
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#344 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/13/2013 9:29:40 AM | message detail | quote
I think it'll be a couple of matches before we un-hivemind.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#345 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/13/2013 9:55:21 AM | message detail | quote
I have Dan second. Always the outlier.
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It's Lu Bu! Lu Bu has come to destroy us!
#346 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/13/2013 10:31:47 AM | message detail | quote
Master Moltar posted...
KP's Analysis

On a weird day I could see Welkin getting 2nd here. Random RPG characters have been doing decently well, and Valkyria Chronicles does have that win over Disgaea in the Games Contest. Jigglypuff has only been in one vote-in poll where she looked awful, although that poll had a lot of Pokemon in it. Maybe Mega Man X SFFs Jiggly here too, who knows?


I can't see X SFFing Jigglypuff. Pokémon barely gets SFFed by true Nintendo stuff like Legend of Zelda and Mario. (For proof, look no further than round 3 of the 2009 Games Contest. Metal Gear Solid vs. Pokémon Red/Blue/Yellow vs. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy VIII. With Ocarina of Time in the poll, RBY managed to take out the #1 MG game and the #3 FF game. (Or is that #4? I know FFVII is #1 and FFX is #2 but I'm never quite sure whether "Old Square" VI is ahead of VIII in the hierarchy or behind it.))
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#347 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/13/2013 10:35:00 AM | message detail | quote
ctesjbuvf posted...
Those two both beat Zelda with Link and Mario in the poll. Could Jiggs do that?


Yeah, probably. Pokémon doesn't get SFFed by non-Pokémon Nintendo the same way the others do. Jigglypuff probably won't be quite as strong because she also draws from Smash, but Pokémon-only strength should be enough to get ahead of someone eating that much SFF.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#348 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 10:41:22 AM | message detail | quote
Lopen posted...
I said more or less "Jigglypuff probably wins 1v1 despite them doing better in multiways due to jokes and rallies being better there" and you ask if Jigglypuff could do something those two did in multiways? What do you think my answer is going to be?


I wasn't only interested in your answer <_<
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#349 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 11:02:38 AM | message detail | quote
Looking pretty good early on!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#350 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/13/2013 11:05:16 AM | message detail | quote
the hivemind wins
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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