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Character Battle IX Contest Analysis Crew

#201 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 9:54:44 AM | message detail | quote
Thank goodness for California and 4chan. Tharja losing to Juliet is at least somewhat respectable, if terrible in its own right. Tharja losing to Tiny Tina I think I'd be bummed contest-wise for weeks, man.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#202 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 10:01:56 AM | message detail | quote
I'm not so sure if California would have bailed out Tharja here. When the morning vote kicked in after 7:00 AM, Tiny Tina started gaining percentage like crazy in the US. With California being 3 hours behind the east coast, it would have taken longer for California's morning vote to start up. Current results in California so far:

Tharja 37.71%
Juliet Starling 28.27%
Tiny Tina 34.02%

I'll post that in here and then check up on California once this match ends.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#203 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 10:09:49 AM | message detail | quote
we should base oracle off california from now on
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#204 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/11/2013 10:33:22 AM | message detail | quote
Watching Trans scream at me reminds me of that episode of Fairly Oddparents where Cosmo yells things to help himself remember them later.

"JORGEN IS NOT MADE OF METAL. BUT HE MAY HAVE AN EXTENSION CORD STICKING OUT OF HIS BUTT. I DON'T NORMALLY LOOK BACK THERE."
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#205 | transcience | Posted 7/11/2013 10:36:28 AM | message detail | quote
they're only going to get more idiotic. this is only day 3 or something.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#206 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/11/2013 10:53:21 AM | message detail | quote
I wake up and Tharja almost lost it overnight? Yikes
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#207 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 11:13:59 AM | message detail | quote
well good job hero, I guess
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#208 | pjbasis | Posted 7/11/2013 11:25:01 AM | message detail | quote
I knew the sub-10% predix were ridiculous but man
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#209 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 11:26:58 AM | message detail | quote
I think you could put literally any character here and they'd get close to 20%. Like really, 1/5 people on GameFAQs disliking Rinoa and Aeris's archetype makes sense to me as they're more or less the same character. Rinoa's just like Aeris on crack without "that scene", basically.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#210 | Achromatic | Posted 7/11/2013 11:27:55 AM | message detail | quote
lalalala not listening.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#211 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 11:30:13 AM | message detail | quote
how dare you imply the floating in space scene is not as impactful as aeris's
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#212 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 11:43:55 AM | message detail | quote
pjbasis posted...
I knew the sub-10% predix were ridiculous but man


I didn't think they were ridiculous as there are some strong arguments in favor of Hero possibly getting under 10%.

First off, Dragon Quest is a very strong cult franchise on GameFAQs, which is bad if you expect a character to have any sort of strength in a contest. There's also 2 other RPG characters in the match too, which might have leeched some of Hero's support. And then there's the issue that a lot of voters probably don't even know who he is.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#213 | transcience | Posted 7/11/2013 11:45:41 AM | message detail | quote
nice job Rinoa freaks
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#214 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 11:47:43 AM | message detail | quote
I still think Rinoa has this honestly. But I won't complain if she doesn't. Third place is a fate better than she deserves.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#215 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 11:48:04 AM | message detail | quote
Man, if Rinoa is bombing this hard in a match, I can't wait to see Locke Cole in action. He might be weak enough to lose to CATS.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#216 | transcience | Posted 7/11/2013 11:50:45 AM | message detail | quote
Luster logic
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#217 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 11:51:48 AM | message detail | quote
Lopen posted...
I still think Rinoa has this honestly. But I won't complain if she doesn't. Third place is a fate better than she deserves.


When is she supposed to start making this comeback, exactly.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#218 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 11:55:53 AM | message detail | quote
Gradually using FF7/FF8 trends she should get stronger the entire match, with most of the strides happening in the night vote.

If Hero pushes the lead past 500 or so I might feel good about him holding but until then yeah.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#219 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 11:56:37 AM | message detail | quote
I think you're nuts!

But for the sake of ~Perfection~ I hope you're right.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#220 | ZFS | Posted 7/11/2013 12:07:08 PM | message detail | quote
The Mana Sword posted...
well good job hero, I guess


feels good
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#221 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/11/2013 12:12:18 PM | message detail | quote
I will gladly sacrifice my points to see this
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#222 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 1:34:51 PM | message detail | quote
Check out this hot stall.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#223 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 7/11/2013 1:46:58 PM | message detail | quote
#224 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 1:59:59 PM | message detail | quote
I'm pretty sure every analysis said that (but most saying it wouldn't be enough to put her below the weak Hero) gosh don't anyone read
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#225 | Achromatic | Posted 7/11/2013 2:00:53 PM | message detail | quote
I am very, very okay with this. 100% Sir Chris approved.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#226 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 7/11/2013 2:43:05 PM | message detail | quote
Lopen posted...
I'm pretty sure every analysis said that (but most saying it wouldn't be enough to put her below the weak Hero) gosh don't anyone read


I think it's more of a case of people underestimating Aerith.
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http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q155/Gamecubesupreme/DBZFIGHTERS.png
#227 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/11/2013 2:44:13 PM | message detail | quote
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Man, if Rinoa is bombing this hard in a match, I can't wait to see Locke Cole in action. He might be weak enough to lose to CATS.


Rinoa's only losing because Aerith's in the way.

Either way, we're well on our way to the worst contest ever.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#228 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/11/2013 2:45:44 PM | message detail | quote
Geiki Ganger posted...
Lopen posted...
I'm pretty sure every analysis said that (but most saying it wouldn't be enough to put her below the weak Hero) gosh don't anyone read


I think it's more of a case of people underestimating Aerith.


Not really. Going off Oracle results, most people have Aerith at roughly the correct percent. The swing in predicted % is purely between Rinoa and Hero.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#229 | Achromatic | Posted 7/11/2013 2:47:20 PM | message detail | quote
LeonhartFour posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Man, if Rinoa is bombing this hard in a match, I can't wait to see Locke Cole in action. He might be weak enough to lose to CATS.


Rinoa's only losing because Aerith's in the way.

Either way, we're well on our way to the worst contest ever.


http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mdcs3adZOs1rpvf4qo1_400.gif
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#230 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 2:51:15 PM | message detail | quote
Most people were expecting around 15% for Hero and he has over 25% right now. So this is a case where Hero is much stronger than we expected, rather than Rinoa being SFFed. I think Rinoa happened to be much weaker than we expected. And Aerith isn't the type of character who would be capable of SFFing someone. The stronger a character is, the more SFF power they have over weaker characters from their series or game.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#231 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/11/2013 2:58:43 PM | message detail | quote | (edited)
No, Rinoa's definitely getting SFF'd.

Lopen and tranny pretty much have it right.

Not saying Rinoa's not weak, but Hero wouldn't beat Rinoa if this was 1-on-1.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#232 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/11/2013 2:59:36 PM | message detail | quote
And Aerith is plenty capable of SFF.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1317

People had the same rationale for that match, too. "Sora's just weak. No way Aerith SFF'd him."

yeah that didn't work out so well in 2004
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#233 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 3:00:15 PM | message detail | quote
2004
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#234 | ZFS | Posted 7/11/2013 3:25:14 PM | message detail | quote
Rinoa would be winning without Aerith around, yeah. Still, Hero's not as weak as people expected him to e, which is the nice take away here. Dragon Quest isn't so unknown that one of its lead characters can't do alright. This isn't Shadow Hearts!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#235 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/11/2013 3:29:20 PM | message detail | quote
I suppose considering how well liked small JRPGs around here, I should have figured that he'd be strong enough to take advantage of the SFF. DQ is pretty tiny in the US, especially compared against Final Fantasy, but that doesn't mean much on this website.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#236 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/11/2013 3:30:49 PM | message detail | quote
This match makes me feel good about Fei Fong Wong > Dan.
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"This is a fantasy based on reality."
DChemist
#237 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/11/2013 3:39:16 PM | message detail | quote
I always thought Fei beating Dan was the obvious call anyway. Dan has looked terrible in every poll he's ever been in.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#238 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/11/2013 3:42:15 PM | message detail | quote
Yeah, Fei "impressed" in his one match too. Seems pretty clear cut, I think.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#239 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/11/2013 3:59:01 PM | message detail | quote
This isn't the worst contest.We had a really good match and plus the predictions for 2nd place are off.
2nd place crew curse.Yeah that is!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#240 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 7:30:35 PM | message detail | quote
I disagree that Hero is significantly stronger than we think he is. I think the overlap is just higher than expected.

I really do honestly think Tanner scores 17-18% in this match.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#241 | FFDragon | Posted 7/11/2013 7:32:22 PM | message detail | quote
You have to consider that even less people are aware Tanner exists now. And only a few knew he existed when he had his shot to begin with.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
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#242 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 7:33:33 PM | message detail | quote
That's my point. 17-18% of Hero's 25% here are "not Aeris/Rinoa"
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#243 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 7:42:15 PM | message detail | quote
Er I guess I should've made that clear I meant that the overlap in their hatebases was higher than expected not so much their fanbases. Like I think most people who dislike one dislike both... I mean I already thought that but I think it was more of a most than I'd originally thought now.

Basically what I'm saying is I'd confidently pick Hero to take last were he replacing anyone in the last match despite this match implying otherwise
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#244 | transience | Posted 7/11/2013 7:43:24 PM | message detail | quote
too much Hero doubt
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xyzzy
#245 | Big Bob | Posted 7/11/2013 8:04:58 PM | message detail | quote
FFDragon posted...
You have to consider that even less people are aware Tanner exists now. And only a few knew he existed when he had his shot to begin with.


Tanner would do weaker after he's had a well-received game come out?
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Currently playing: Assassin's Creed III
#246 | AppIekidjosh | Posted 7/11/2013 8:17:25 PM | message detail | quote
okay Jay Solano instead of Tanner
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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#247 | transience | Posted 7/11/2013 8:20:50 PM | message detail | quote
chester
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xyzzy
#248 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:37:01 PM | message detail | quote
So whats the consensus on the next match?
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Point Total: 6/6. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Draven Day: Ryu
#249 | ZFS | Posted 7/11/2013 8:39:14 PM | message detail | quote
Lopen posted...
I disagree that Hero is significantly stronger than we think he is. I think the overlap is just higher than expected.

I really do honestly think Tanner scores 17-18% in this match.


I think you're way off here. I mean, Hero isn't going to take on big names, but people were a bit too caught up in the idea that no one knows what Dragon Quest is. It's hardly an unknown series outside of Japan, and the site is trending more 'hardcore' than ever with its users.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#250 | Master Moltar (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/11/2013 9:04:26 PM | message detail | quote
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5145
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5146

Crew Predictions - 4/4

What Happened: Yoshi and Shep put up big, but not huge, wins on their opponents. No surprises with 2nd and 3rd place in those matches.

What will Happen: Shep not looking too great going into R2



Crew Prediction Challenge - free points

Moltar - 4
Lopen - 4
Leon - 4
Kleenex - 4
Tran - 4
KP - 4
Guest - 4


Crew Expert Challenge - lopen falling behind

Kleenex - 4
KP - 4
Guest - 4
Moltar - 3
Leon - 3
Tran - 3
Lopen - 2


Crew Accuracy Challenge - KP gets the point for Yoshi, Leon gets the point for Solaire, Kleenex gets the point for Demi-Fiend and Kain, Moltar gets the point for Shepard, and Lopen gets the point for Olimar

Lopen - 4
Kleenex - 3
Moltar - 2
Guest - 1 (Kuza)
Leon - 1
KP - 1
Tran - 0
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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