GameFAQs Contests
Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
Chris vs Big Boss Chris and Wesker put up one of the most impressive performances in Contest history last round (by Oracle expectations). Unfortunately that was against a team that may very well have been historically weak; they've bit off more than they can chew in the Bosses. Now as a "Big Boss to the Final Four" picker and the site's #1 FFX believer, you'd expect me to say that BB's 60% on Tidus translates to something like a 64 or 65 in this one. But as I think about it even more closely, I'm not so sure... While it's true that RE has struggled this season, everyone seems to realize that Chris/Wesker is the real rivalry of the series, and you don't bet against SmartVoterFAQs in 2011. Even though the Bosses are naturally stronger and have the better rivalry, there shouldn't be any kind of SFF to blow this win out of proportion. Most importantly though, melty MGS artwork, oh nooooooo! Ah well, no biggie, I trust our picsmiths to deliver the awesome Boss pics when it matters (versus Samus next round), but for now I'm afraid I have to award Chris the scientifically proven 3% match pic factor boost! Big Boss - 61.11% --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
Aw well, that was fun. Hopefully they can bring down the score as much as possible. |
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/25/2011 11:48:58 PM | message detail | quote augh... how is guest supposed to win the accuracy challenge with awful picks like this Hey, I got 2 points for the Guest on that challenge alone. I'm going to try and go 3 for 3 in the Accuracy Challenge, as I'll be signing up for a round 3 match. I'm already 2 for 2. After doing a round 3 match, it's unlikely I'll be signing up for a match in round 4 and beyond. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
I forgot, which match did I sign up for again? --- I think someone is being way, way too sensitive. Do we have to stop saying "You got owned" in order to not offend black people due to slavery? - wg64Z |
Very good, Dante. The mountain has taught you well. But mountain, no hit back! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I also got one for the guest already. I paid my dues! |
and then you unpaid them by signing up for a really dumb upset pick! --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
South Division: Round 2 - Match 41 – (1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (4) Amaterasu/Orochi Moltar’s Analysis Link/Ganondorf Round 1 - 85.30% vs. Arthas/Illidan Ganondorf so powerful Amaterasu/Orochi Round 1 - 67.12% vs. Tom/Redd Ammy barely doubles some animal crossing crap Well Ganondorf carried Link to a really good R1 showing, but it looks like people don’t care for the Ammy/Orochi rivalry, because only doubling something as weak as Tom/Redd is...pretty bad. Then you factor in Ganondorf getting a new Zelda game just a few days ago and this should be ugly. Moltar’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf Moltar’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf - 78% Lopen’s Analysis Link gets the assistance of the pig to help fend off dog and snake. I guess it works on GameFAQs, ever the fans of the classic movie Babe. Lopen's prediction: Link vs Pig with 73.83% Leon’s Analysis This one should get really ugly. Ammy/Orochi may have put up 67% on their round 1 opponents, but then you have to remember that those opponents were Tom Nook and Crazy Redd. The 2010 X-Stats already predict Link/Ammy to be a 73%+ win in favor of Link, and you may argue that Ganondorf doesn’t add much to Link overall, he’s bound to add more than Orochi does to Ammy. Not much else to say about this one. Leonhart’s Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 76.25% Kleenex’s Analysis Spoilers Link wins. Ammy's not fodder or anything, but it's hardly a challenge for Link. And whoever that Ganondorf guy is. I dunno, it's a Link match that doesn't involve Cloud on the other side of the poll. What more analysis do you want. Kleenex's Prediction: Link vs. Ganondorf with 77.87% Applekidjosh’s Analysis Alrighty this is my last day at family instead of home, so luckily this is a gimme match that doesn't matter. akj predix link with 73% Dante’s Analysis link wins Winner - Link Wins - 73.41% |
Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534 Pity this match had to occur in the rivalry bracket - we could have had an excellent all wolf pic if this was Link vs. Ammy 1v1! A possible Link/Ammy 1v1 match is a good place to start thinking about this match, I think. If you take Amaterasu through Luigi in CBVIII you get a projection of about 77%. While it's true that Link SFF'd Luigi and therefore that shouldn't be relied on too heavily, I think Ammy relies a fair bit on Okami's Wii playerbase, which likely overlaps with Zelda (being the same genre and all), and so would probably suffer a degree of SFF as a "pseudo-Nintendo" entrant. Regardless, Link would surely get more on Amaterasu in a full day than he did on Alucard in a night match (72%). And that's before we consider the rivalry factor. Link/Ganon did exceptionally well in round one, breaking 85% on Arthas/Illidan in a night match, especially considering Link was held below 80% by Thrall in CBVIII. I think part of the reason for that increase was that Link/Ganon took home some "rivalry vote" against the Warcraft team, and they should do the same here - Orochi doesn't live long in the memory, to the extent that I think Ammy is trying to carry this team on her own, and we've seen how that's been turning out for others left in that position. 67% on Nook/Redd was disappointing. If Nook/Redd are stronger than Arthas/Illidan, then I doubt it's by very much. Setting them equal gives Link/Ganon slightly under 78%. Both teams were on disadvantageous ends of the night/day split last round, so I wouldn't think going to a full match would affect that extrapolation much. However, the possibilities of either or both a touch of SFF in Link/Ganon's favour, and a Skyward Sword boost encourage me to go higher. Link/Ganon narrowly missed out on posting the highest percentage of anyone in round one (beaten by 0.06% by Mario/Bowser), and I think they're going to be edged once more - getting much past the quadrupling on Amaterasu, even with the strength and advantages they have, will be a tall order. Something slightly under 80% seems more achievable. Link vs. Ganondorf with 78.95% of the vote. Crew Consensus: Zelda dominates Okami |
From: Ultimaphazon | #404 Chell/GlaDOS vs. Frog/Magus --- Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60973141 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
From: Master Moltar | #408 No, he didn't! --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Ha ha you fool Dante. Now you feel the consequences of going against me... AKJ and I now CAGE you. It's not a very strong CAGE but give us time. We'll figure it out. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Link vs Ammy Compared to the other BlowoutFAQs results we were seeing, Ammy didn't wow us against what should have been extremely weak competition last round. And although Link didn't top Mario's percentage, he at least had the excuse of facing something with a real fanbase (also an awful match pic). Between that and the thousands of new users on the site who are playing Skyward Sword right now, a Link win in the upper 70s would appear to be the order of the day. And yet I hesitate... Ammy's putting her cool character design to good use in this pic (though to be fair, Link and Ganon look great as well), and there's just something about this wolf that makes me think she'll stand up against Zelda fairly decently. After all, Okami was "the PS2's Zelda" for a year there before it came to Nintendo systems, and even then pretty much everyone seemed to agree that it pulled off the Zelda formula better than TP itself. Plus she's already refused to fold against Luigi. Rivalry Factor will hurt, but I think she manages to NEARLY avoid the tripling tonight! Link - 76.29% --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
I enjoyed writing the email to moltar for this one subject: link wins body: link wins predix: link wins --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
yummy guest accuracy points Team Guest must win! --- ~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 24th Today's Prediction: Link / Dorf - 79.19% |
Low-balling the Link monster will get you nowhere. --- :> |
From: Ngamer64 | #413 If by "pretty much everyone," you mean "Board 8," then sure. Sort of like how "pretty much everyone" agrees Link/Ganondorf isn't a great rivalry. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
(2) Mega Man/Dr. Wily vs. (3) Zidane Tribal/Kuja (R1) Mega Man/Dr. Wily: 77.48% on Banjo/Gruntilda (R1) Zidane Tribal/Kuja: 64.61% on Meat Boy/Dr. Fetus Mega Man/Wily's 77% was a strong performance considering the opposition had done well in their vote-in, and so clearly weren't pathetic fodder. It therefore seems that Mega Man has retained the strength that saw him put up 61.6% and 63% on Zack and Cid in CBVIII. His team should do well here before being blasted to pieces by Link/Ganon. Zidane/Kuja, on the other hand, looked weak against Meat Boy/Fetus in round one, failing to double them. A couple of percent can be attributed to a repulsive match pic, which has certainly been remedied for this match, but it's still poor. Also, Zidane's never done anything of note in these contests beyond beating an SFF'd Shadow and getting close to Ike. X/Zero got 77% on Bartz/Gilgamesh, and while I'd expect Mega Man/Wily to be weaker than X/Zero, and Zidane/Kuja to be stronger than Bartz/Glgamesh, I doubt either gap will be huge. Looked at from the opposite angle, Mega Man should be able to go much higher on Zidane than on Zack or Cid - I doubt rivalry factor influences this match much. A final comparison is to set their R1 opponents equal, which projects 68/32, but since Banjo/Gruntilda are almost certainly above the downloadables this should be a little higher. It remains a bit of a guessing game where this will finish, but something about 70% or so makes sense. Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily with 70.05% of the vote. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Did you save the list of signups? I can't remember which one I signed up for...think it was Alucard/Phoenix --- "I wish I was French." - blindhobo13 "I don't think you know what "French" means." - As I Desire |
LeonhartFour posted... From: Ngamer64 | #413 After all, Okami was "the PS2's Zelda" for a year there before it came to Nintendo systems, and even then pretty much everyone seemed to agree that it pulled off the Zelda formula better than TP itself. If by "pretty much everyone," you mean "Board 8," then sure. *choke* No! N-No! http://www.eegra.com/comics/2007/10/9.jpg --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
I wonder how badly Twilight Princess beats Okami in a contest match...! Hmmm...GOTD stats predict 61.20% for Twilight Princess. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Clearly there's SFF, being "The PS2's Zelda"! --- I'm too tired to drive anywhere, anyway, right now, do you care if I praise Black Turtle? Call me numbers. |
The hideously powerful but rarely seen "Similar kind of game SFF" rears its ugly head! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
I'm home~ --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Same
genre + same platform (at least partly) = probable SFF. Don't see
what's weird about it, really, especially if people think Terra/Kefka
should be SFFing Vyse/Galcian. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
LeonhartFour posted... From: Ngamer64 | #413 After all, Okami was "the PS2's Zelda" for a year there before it came to Nintendo systems, and even then pretty much everyone seemed to agree that it pulled off the Zelda formula better than TP itself. If by "pretty much everyone," you mean "Board 8," then sure. It was a reasonably prevalent view in other places, as well. --- "Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage |
Well, I understand that it wasn't localized entirely to Board 8. But I was simply saying it's pretty silly to think that the "common" opinion of the average gamer is that Okami is better than Twilight Princess. Mostly because the average gamer probably hasn't played Okami. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Mega Man vs Zidane Don't lose the faith, Contest fans! While it's true that we've just run through the dullest 40 match stretch in GameFAQs history, if you can just survive ONE more day you'll find that we're actually in for what should be a pretty entertaining final 1/3 of this bracket. Which should hopefully also lead to more interesting writeups from the Crew and I... starting tomorrow, so get ready to read one more super boring set! I don't think Banjo was a total pushover in this format (didn't look like one in the vote ins at least), so the 77 MM hung on him last round was more than respectable. You couldn't say the same for Zidane- I don't think this rivalry is as respected as Terra/Kefka, and with everything else Square failing to impress, it sure looks like Mega Man is set to post an easy blowout tonight. Especially after seeing how dominant his fellow Noble Niner-iconic rivalry pals (Mario, Sonic, especially Link) have looked so far this round. Expect that trend to continue! Mega Man - 69.71% --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
Samus Aran vs. Ridley 60.79% 30282 Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo 39.21% 19530 TOTAL VOTES 49812 Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker 43.4% 19833 Big Boss vs. The Boss 56.6% 25862 TOTAL VOTES 45695 Crew Predictions - 40/40 What Happened: FF6 goes out strong, as does RE Why it Happened: People respect FF6, and Terra and Kefka looked good last year so it wasn't too surprising to see them perform well against Samus. Chris/Wesker also seem to be the strongest RE pair by far. What will Happen: Samus probably won't look too good against The Bosses, but she'll win. Crew Prediction Challenge - poor guest Moltar - 40 Leon - 40 AKJ - 38 Kleenex - 38 Guest - 37 Dante - 37 Lopen - 35 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Samus/Ridley, Moltar and AKJ get the point for Big Boss/The Boss Lopen - 7 Leon - 7 Kleenex - 6.5 Guest - 6 (Luster: 2, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1, Korayashi: 1, GfK: 1) Moltar - 6 AKJ - 4.5 Dante - 3 --- Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60973141 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
From: XIII_rocks | #419 Zidane/Kuja vs. MM/Wily - Luis Phoenix/Edgeworth vs. Alucard/Dracula - XIII Chell/GlaDOS vs. Frog/Magus - Ultima Cloud/Seph vs. Kratos/Zeus - GrapefruitKing Pac/Blinky vs. Snake/Liquid -TsunamiXXVIII Squall/Seifer vs. Siegfried/Nightmare - SuorGenoveffa Dante/Vergil vs. Sora/Riku - transience --- Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60973141 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Hey, I should still be on top of the Accuracy leaderboard! Alphabetical order and all that...! Heck, I should be on top of BOTH leaderboards! This is an outrage --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
Out with the old in with the new Step aside fogey --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
You're older than me...! --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Yeah so respect your elders and know your place at #2 --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Gotta get up pretty early in the morning to out think me. Let that be a lesson to you. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Well, there's always my secret weapon...! --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
Not to be that kid but teacher I think you marked my test too high don't we split the point meaning I'm at 4.5, not 5? --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
From: AppIekidjosh | #438 oh right, thanks also send your write-up imo --- Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60973141 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
josh taking forever as always yes I checked to make sure I didn't send another email to master molar --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
oh right it's late 7 hour drive throws off my sense of everything --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
South Division: Round 2 - Match 42 – (3) Zidane/Kuja vs. (2) Mega Man/Dr. Wily Moltar’s Analysis Zidane/Kuja Round 1 - 64.61% vs. Meat Boy/Fetus Terrible showing from Zidane Mega Man/Dr. Wily Round 1 - 77.48% vs. Banjo/Gruntilda Good showing from MM In 2010, Zidane looked bad in R1 after failing to double Claptrap, but then he looked good in R2 by losing in a close day match to Ike. Yes, Ike went on to get destroyed by Mario, but the point is that Zidane probably isn’t going to get killed either. X/Zero got 77% on FF5 (Bartz), and FF9 (Zidane) is a good deal stronger than it. I also don’t see this being too close either. MM/Wily looked fine in R1, though they may have benefitted from fighting Nintendo opponents. This is probably at least a doubling, and 70% seems to be in reach. Moltar’s Bracket: Mega Man/Dr. Wily Moltar’s Prediction: Mega Man/Dr. Wily - 70% Lopen’s Analysis Pretty boring match. Only interesting part is if thongzilla and his rival can outdo expectations this round due to not being pink. I think they can. I'm not sure how that translates to percentage but I've never been keen on the whole percentage placing game anyway for the analysis crew. (as you may have guessed my enthusiasm for this contest is extremely high at this point as a result!) Lopen's prediction: Mega Man vs Wily with 70.XX%. … let's make X = 2. Yeah. Leon’s Analysis Zidane/Kuja laid one of the biggest eggs of round 1 when they couldn’t even get 65% on Meat Boy/Dr. Fetus. You can blame SOME of that on the picture, but a decent Zidane/Kuja picture wouldn’t have been enough to prevent that showing from being really bad. Mega Man/Wily put up a strong 77%+ on Banjo/Gruntilda, and while some people may argue Nintendo-ish SFF there (though I don’t think I really buy it), it’s a strong performance. We’ve already seen that some of these older rivalries featuring our Noble Niners are getting some decent respect. Like Robotnik, Dr. Wily may not be much on his own, but when you pair him with Mega Man, there’s a certain “iconic” respect associated with it. I think this one gets pretty ugly. Zidane/Kuja may be from Final Fantasy, but FFIX is more of a middle tier than an upper tier title in terms of popularity, so I don’t think series affiliation will spare them from the blowout. Plus, I think people legitimately dislike Kuja, so that also hurts them here. Leonhart’s Prediction: Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily with 66.60% Kleenex’s Analysis Zidane and Kuja kinda laid an egg last round, while Mega Man managed to do a good job of impressing me. Granted, that Mega Man impress was probably more to do with that whole vote-in poll being way weaker than we initially anticipated (as has been suggested by other matches thus far), but Mega Man should still do pretty well here. Just in time for a Link beating! Kleenex's Prediction: Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily with 68.47% |
Applekidjosh’s Analysis So on a topical note I played Mega Man 9 over the weekend and that's some good times. I'm terrible at it but still, Mega Man is awesome. Meanwhile it's no secret I'm an FF9 hater. This match is gonna feel sooooo goooood And that's obviously because Zidane's gonna get thrashed here. He disappointed in round 1, which is made even better by Kefka doing so well. You can't blame it on a bad year for Square! This is all you, baby! Hahahaha. And in Round 1, Mega Man showed some serious star quality. Not a top tier but definitely high tier entrant here. This won't be as ugly as Link's "obvious SFF" match against ammy, but it will still be a blowout. AKJ predix Mega man vs Wily with 70.01% Dante’s Analysis One of these guys literally pulled 65% on Meat Boy. Then again they are final fantasy boyz so I don't think mega man will pull 80% so lets compromise here Winner - Mega Man - 71.41% Guest’s Analysis - Luis The path of the two Mega Man teams is fairly boring this contest, it's pretty clear that Classic and X are going to get creamed by Link and Mario respectively. At one point it looked like the MK ninjas would take it to X and Zero after their beating of Leon & Ada, but then DK brought them back down to earth in round 2. At least, though, they have each other to compete against, because it isn't obvious which of the two will end up the stronger rivalry. Regular Mega Man is clearly stronger individually, but Zero brings a lot more to the fray than Wily does. Here, MM and Wily get to squash Zidane & co. For 24 long hours... Whilst grimacing at the thought of facing Link after witnessing today's obliteration. FF9 didn't impress against one of the more obscure pairings of the contest, so this shouldn't be pretty. Mega Man and Wily win with 67.8% Crew Consensus: MM wins |
phenomenal akj cage --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
Too easy. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'm pretty sure the best part about this contest is looking at these analyses each day just to see who gets caged. --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
Yeah
it's the only fun I've been getting out of it. I can hardly even make
bad jokes about the matches these days cause I'M SO BORED. ALL COOKIE AND NO UPSET MAKE LOPEN GO CRAZY. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Leon why must you always ruin everything --- "Eet's game time..." |
More likely Kleenex ruins it for you imhhho. Mega Man's got nowhere to go but up after an hour or two. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
WOW GUYS --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
