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Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

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#101 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
I would gladly throw away my bracket for Phoenix/Edgeworth to win the division.
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#102 | X_Dante_X | message detail | filter
yeah whatever
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#103 | BlAcK TuRtLe | message detail | filter
Moltar wouldn't take Fox/Wolf over Frog/Magus?

That seems weird to me.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#104 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter
(1) Cloud/Sephiroth vs. (8) Lloyd Irving/Kratos Aurion

The way the bracket's been constructed, we've had to wait a while to see Square's big beasts take to the ring, but in a few hours we'll get our first look at FFVII's finest. Lloyd/Kratos were narrowly beaten by Arthas/Illidan in the vote-in, so you might think, possibly with the benefit of some JRPG SFF, that Cloud/Seph could do about as well as Link/Ganon did (85.3%) in the night. There's an obvious reason why they won't get that high: anti-votes have a big effect when going for the very high percentages when up against fodder, and fodder Lloyd/Kratos most certainly are (Kratos got 55/45'd by Sackboy, while Lloyd got doubled by Fox, in CBVIII). Last contest Cloud and Seph both struggled to get much over 70% on fairly weak opposition (Marth, Ridley, Chris Redfield, Falcon). Lloyd/Kratos are a tier or two below that group and Cloud/Seph's rivalry factor should make them stronger themselves, but the anti-votes should still be there, and they should still struggle to post great figures against weak entrants. With all the blowouts we've had though, there's no good reason they cannot do a little better than X/Zero and Samus/Ridley.

Cloud vs. Sephiroth with 81.45% of the vote.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
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#105 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #103
Moltar wouldn't take Fox/Wolf over Frog/Magus?

That seems weird to me.


Pre-contest, most people wouldn't.

Now, who knows.
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#106 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter
Maybe I'm under-rating rivalry factor here, I dunno.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#107 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter

From: LeonhartFour | #105
Pre-contest, most people wouldn't.

Now, who knows.


This
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Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60859552
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#108 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
KamikazePotato posted...
Frog/Magus has always come across as a B8 creation to me. I question how much people really care about it. It won't be enough to lose here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up looking bad.

KP was... right? Don't know how else to explain this!


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Moltar wouldn't take Fox/Wolf over Frog/Magus?

That seems weird to me.


Kotetsu said the same, and I'd have agreed with them. If you were counting on rivalries to matter when making your bracket, like I was, Frog/Magus over the Foxes and Phoenixes and Gordons of the world made perfect sense. Over Alucard, though... we may have let our B8 bias get in the way, like KP said!
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#109 | red sox 777 | message detail | filter
As far as base strength goes, Frog/Magus are pretty weak. Frog is worth around 38% on Bowser after adjusting for the day match, so he's at maybe 42% on Fox. Crono/Magus should be a lot stronger than Frog/Magus given that Crono is worth perhaps a doubling on Frog before SFF, unless rivalries matter a lot lot lot. But so far this contest, rivalries have mattered a lot, which fueled our expectations for Frog/Magus.
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90s games > 00s games
#110 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
West Division: Round 1 - Match 25 – (1) Cloud/Sephrioth vs. (8) Lloyd/Kratos

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud/Sephiroth
The arguable 2nd and 3rd strongest characters pairing up

Lloyd/Kratos
The end of a thought

Well this is easy. Cloud/Seph is the alternative to Link/Ganon winning the contest. They’ve got more synergy and rivalry matters than the LoZ rivalry, so a lot of people see them as potential winners.

Of course, they’ve got a road to travel along the way, and their first opponents are the ToS pair. We’ve already seen FF deliver a beatdown to another RPG series, and this time it’s FF7 we’re dealing with here.

85% seems likely, but then you have to remember that Cloud and Seph always look bad early on because of anti-votes. So I’ll say that they underperform a little here, but nothing that will make them look awful.

Moltar’s Bracket: Cloud/Sephrioth

Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud/Sephrioth - 80%



Lopen’s Analysis

This could either be really ugly for Lloyd vs Kratos or make them look golden. On the one hand, they could get SFFed, but on the other it's Cloud vs Sephiroth which are proven anti-vote magnets in a 12 hour match. Regardless of the result, I don't think you take this result to mean much of anything from this match. I'm banking on the anti-votes.

Shame. Lloyd vs Kratos deserves better!

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud vs Sephiroth with 80.81%



Leon’s Analysis

I feel pretty bad for Lloyd/Kratos here. I think they could’ve done decently here with a better draw. I know on their own they’re not very strong, but I think Symphonia fans consider this a good rivalry. As it stands, they run the risk of getting RPG SFF’d into the ground. With all this talk of rivalry mattering and the strength of both characters mattering, the idea of Cloud/Sephiroth being able to win this contest is starting to gain a bit of steam. It feels like we fall for this every contest now, mostly because I feel like we desperately want someone other than Link to win.

Still, I think Cloud/Sephiroth do have a reasonable shot at winning this, and I think they’ll go pretty high here. I know people are talking about how Cloud and Sephy get anti-voted too much for them to go TOO high, but I don’t know if I agree. This contest feels like the Series Contest all over again, and we saw the heavy, heavy hitters scoring monstrous blowouts, like we’ve seen so far here. I think Cloud/Sephiroth as a unit will receive fewer anti-votes than they do individually, although I know some people are proclaiming it will be the other way around. We’ll see what happens though. It shouldn’t say too much about their chances of beating Link/Ganon unless they go under 75% or over 90%.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth with 83.75%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Get HYPE. The real champ is finally in the house. Link has already shown that he's planning on giving up the title - the time for change is nigh. And the first roadblock on the way to victory is hardly even a roadblock at all. Tales of Symphonia characters are weak! Hardly a challenge for Cloud and Sephiroth. Expect complete and utter annihilation.

(Realistically Cloud and Sephiroth are still getting anti-vote and enough people care about Tales that this won't be a huge blowout. I expect the FF7 guys to finish under 80%)

Kleenex's Prediction: Cloud vs. Sephiroth with 77.88%
#111 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Let me first say that Frog underperformance makes my Phoenix > GlaDOS division finals seem almost possible! Now to find a way to make 30,000 people hate Alucard in the coming weeks...

So obviously this match is just a "how high will they go?" thing, and since both Cloud and Sephiroth always suffer from antivotes I wonder if the antivotes will remain the same or increase exponentially? On the plus side, I feel like the FF7 oversaturization anti-hype has to be dying down at this point - it's been ages since we've had a spinoff, movie, or ridiculous cell phone game and certain recent Final Fantasy games must be making fans think back to the glory days, right?

I'm biased since FF7 is my favorite game of all time, though. On the plus side Lloyd and Kratos are jokes from a joke game in a joke series that only turbonerds enjoy. I'd like nothing more than for these two to start a glorious contest-winning run today, even at the expense of my bracket. Let's do it

AKJ predix Cloud vs Sephiroth with 84.89%



Dante’s Analysis

Oh man, I see orange_cavalier got his nomination in! aside from him though, does anyone actually care about Lloyd and Kratos? I certainly don’t, and Cloud and Seph are like, both members Clinkeroth or something. Man, how long has it been since we threw around Clinkeroth anyway. Whatever, point is Cloud and Seph take this while duking it out on the side of a falling skyscraper with heavy metal playing. I think that happens sometime in FF7, extha made a topic about it or something

Winner - Cloud/Sephiroth – 83.57%



Guest’s Analysis - superangelo

Even if Cloud/Seph DO get antivoted somewhat, no one (sadly) cares about Tales + there's gonna be some RPG SFF so I think Cloud/Seph will match big numbers like Subby/Scorp and Mario/Bowser

Cloud/Sephiroth- 83.50%
Lloyd/Kratos- 16.50%



Crew Consensus: Surprise, Cloud/Seph win.
#112 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
#113 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter
Going to be a real shocker tonight
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#114 | red sox 777 | message detail | filter
I'm feeling a Cloud/CATS type performance tonight. All those anti-votes will only manage to push the strongest pair of characters down to 86%.
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90s games > 00s games
#115 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
Cloud vs ToS Kratos

The combined might of Final Fantasy 7, in a night match, against RPG opponents, in a format where rivalries are important, in a season where blowouts are more plentiful than they've been in years? 90%, here we come!

HOLD YOUR HORSES

I do think this format favors the FF7 crew, but even so, there's too much working against them for this to turn into the enormous blowout that it probably should be. First off the Tales guys are a bad matchup for them (they'd crush any PSX or PS2 RPG team, but ToS was Nintendo's answer to FF for many years), second off Lloyd and Kratos look great in that pic, third off the Tales fanbase is loyal and gets the game/characters close to 20% even in bad situations, and fourth off Cloud is just weird. Here's a guy who can score an amazing 66% on Ryu (who had just beat Dante and smacked around Leon), yet fail to reach 72% on Falcon/Ridley/Chris! I don't expect anti-votes to be nearly as big a factor as in 2010, but even so, they should hold this team in check somewhat.

Long story short, look for Cloud and Seph to "disappoint" compared to Mario/Link here, but it won't matter much... they should still be very much in the running for the Championship (unless they fall to the low 70s or something ridic).

Cloud - 82.57%
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#116 | TheKoolAidShoto | message detail | filter
#117 | DpObliVion | message detail | filter |
Whooo Crew!

Write-up sent. Curious to see everyone else's prediction. I thought I was going a little high, then I realized I was going extremely high, so I brought it down to just be really high. But what's a Dp analysis without being either the lowest or highest?!

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Well I'll be go to hell.
#118 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter
(4) Kratos/Zeus vs. (5) Professor Layton/Don Paolo

Closely seeded, but not close in strength. Layton's contest history consists of getting tripled by Raiden and just about breaking 30% on Isaac, who then got 60-40'd by the block. In CBVIII, Kratos 60-40'd Tails, then got 45% on Charizard, who 60-40'd the block next round. Kratos is clearly well above Isaac, and he's had God of War 3 since. Should be a cruise well into the 70s, but with the fanbases being so different I think this might still be Layton's best ever performance!

Kratos vs. Zeus with 74.5% of the vote.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#119 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Chell vs. GlaDOS 59.07% 16196
Ness vs. Giygas 40.93% 11223
TOTAL VOTES 27419

Frog vs. Magus 56.13% 19662
Raiden vs. Vamp 43.87% 15368
TOTAL VOTES 35030



Crew Predictions - 24/24

What Happened: Portal beats Eathbound, CT disappoints yet again

Why it Happened: Portal has definitely gotten stronger since last contest, as Chell and GlaDOS beat Ness/Giygas without any problem. Then, Frog/Magus didn't do too hot against Raiden/Vamp. They did win their vote-in poll, but still, this makes Frog/Magus look no stronger than Fox/Wolf.

What will Happen: This match could be pretty close. Frog/Magus are no longer the clear favorites here.



Crew Prediction Challenge - dante...

Moltar - 24
Leon - 24
AKJ - 24
Guest - 22
Kleenex - 22
Lopen - 21
Dante - 21



Crew Accuracy Challenge - AKJ gets the point for Chell/GlaDOS, Kleenex gets the point for Frog/Magus

Leon - 7
Lopen - 5
Guest - 3 (Luster: 1, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1)
Dante - 2
AKJ - 3
Kleenex - 2.5
Moltar - 1.5
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Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60859552
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#120 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
GoW Kratos vs Layton

BlowoutFAQs has sure fallen on hard times lately! Luckily for its fans, I'm thinking Kratos puts that trend back on track in this one. We known almost nothing about his opponent (thanks again for that thoughtful Isaac/Layton setup, SB) except that his games get beat by Madden in anticipation polls and Super Scribblenauts in GotY polls and the series is most popular outside of North America. Not exactly a formula for success in a Day Match!

In general I don't like betting against Nintendo teams that don't feature Waluigi, and maybe I should have learned my lesson after the way Ness burned me, but ehhh... I think Layton's a little too niche to hit 30% here. Plus how cool is it to have a rivalry with GOD HIMSELF? "Pretty dang cool", the voters will respond, to the tune of something like

Kratos - 73.17%
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#121 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | message detail | filter
Kleenex was right about the FF 7 match.Nice.
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#122 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter

From: Master Moltar | #119
AKJ - 3
Kleenex - 2.5


AKJ > Kleenex count: 3


also goddammit cloud and seph I trusted you guys
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#123 | The Mana Sword | message detail | filter
Expected result! Not sure what you guys were thinking here, FFVII can't do blowouts like Nintendo guys can.

What does worry me is the votals seem low for a match with two of the site's favorite characters, but maybe that's a product of the late start.
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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN
#124 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
Wait, is Ngamer calling for SFF in Isaac/Layton?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3269

Layton is crappy against anyone.
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#125 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
West Division: Round 1 - Match 26 – (4) Kratos/Zeus vs. (5) Layton/Don Paolo

Moltar’s Analysis

Kratos/Zeus
The God of War

Layton/Paolo
The God of...Puzzles?

This should be a nasty match for Layton. Layton got killed by Isaac in 2010, and Isaac really isn’t worth that much. Paolo is pretty much nothing. Kratos is solid, but hasn’t really impressed ever. I don’t see Zeus doing much to help him out either. This should be your standard blow-out, but nothing too crazy because Kratos never impresses.

Moltar’s Bracket: Kratos/Zeus

Moltar’s Prediction: Kratos/Zeus - 71%



Lopen’s Analysis

I kinda think Kratos vs Ares would be the cooler rivalry here, even if it's over by the end of the first game. It's the battle of the gods of war. That means something! Anywho. Layton offers Kratos some tea and gives him a block puzzle and Kratos is all like “ARES!!!!” and kills Layton with that very same glass of tea.

Not that Kratos couldn't solve the puzzle-- there are more puzzles in GoW than there rightfully should be. But Kratos doesn't play by those rules here. If punching something in the face solves the puzzle then by golly you should do it.

After seeing random Animal Crossing crap not be decimated I'm hesitant to call this a blowout, though, even if it should be.

Lopen's prediction:
Kratos vs Zeus with 66.60%



Leon’s Analysis

Man, it’s hard to believe a match like this will actually happen. Layton was horribly weak when we saw him last year, and Don Paolo is probably one of the weakest characters in this contest. Isaac got nearly 69% on Layton last year. Actually, Kratos and Layton were in the same division in that contest, so their X-Stat values relative to each other should be fairly accurate, and they predict Kratos to get 78% on Layton. Paolo adds absolutely nothing to Layton. I’m not sure Zeus would be worth much of anything, even considering he originates outside of a video game. Yeah, everyone knows Zeus from Greek mythology, but I don’t think that means he’s popular! I’ve never played GoW, so I don’t know what he’s like or how well liked he is in the context of the series, but he shouldn’t be completely worthless.

Man, I can’t believe I wrote this much for this match.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Kratos vs. Zeus with 77.77%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Layton is a goddamn badass and does not deserve to lose to a total wuss like Kratos. Screw this match.

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/layton.gif

Kleenex's Prediction: Kratos and Zeus suck with 68.90%
#126 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Applekidjosh’s Analysis

If you ask me, "Hey AKJ, what's the dumbest mistake in your bracket?" I would say "Shepard over Alucard." But if you said "Really? Or are you too embarrassed to give the real answer?" you might get me to admit I took Layton over Kratos here.

The weird thing is I have no idea why I did it. It doesn't even make sense. I mean sure, Layton is as hot now as ever, with games and a movie and commercials and the Layton vs Wright crossover on the horizon! But he's still a niche handheld only puzzle mascot going up against a juggernaught of the current generation (which, surprise surprise, I haven't played any of...)

My students tell me Kratos is all about kicking ass in style. I thought that was Dante's niche, but whatever I won't argue. Kratos is gonna kick ass here, and it's gonna be ugly D:

AKJ predix Kratos vs Zeus with 69.69%



Dante’s Analysis

What a minute didn’t Kratos just have a match? Man, what a cheater. I suppose is only fair though when your first opponent is a tag team of cloud and sephiroth! Anyway, as much as Layton would love to pull a bizarre twist out of nowhere and win, he won’t be able to. Even if you’ve played the games it’s very easy to forget about Don Paolo (not so much the third I guess, but whatever), and Zeus will get the greek mythology vote. Trust me, that vote exists. I fully expect heroicgammaray to vote for Kratos and Zeus solely since the actual Zeus of legend is a complete dick. And really, that alone is enough to declare a winner.

Winner - Kratos/Zeus – 66.67%



Fabulous Guest’s Analysis - Korayashi

Ah, doing a guest analysis once again! It's been a rather long time since I've had the pleasure of doing one myself. In fact, as I recall, the last time around was Game of the Decade season! If I'm remembering correctly (Chances are I am) it went fantastically!

Korayashi's Prediction: I have never been one to back down on my obvious insanity/bad decision making of the past. I stick with it until the end, when I can truly regret it! BANJO-TOOIE WITH 50.01%. YEAH!

Uhh...right. Anyway, this match is between Team Kratos and Team Layton. So chances are I won't make the same mistake again.


BANJO

...

TOOIE

...Probably.


So, what are the factors that will determine this match? Uh..well..I really don't feel there are any. Kratos isn't exactly a contest powerhouse or anything, but having a greek god in tow and facing such fodder? It'll be simple. Rivalry factor won't matter, landslide victory for someone that'll give up a landslide victory next round.

Korayashi's Bracket: Kratos > Layton

Korayashi's Vote: Kratos/Zeus, I'm not incredibly familiar with the Layton series.

Korayashi's Prediction: Logic, baby.KRATOS/ZEUS WITH 73.48%.



Crew Consensus: Kratos vs. Zeus godstomp Layton
#127 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
Huh, I'm kinda surprised only a couple of others are going 70%+ here. I probably wouldn't have thought about it until I saw Chris/Wesker and Terra/Kefka put up 78%, but seeing that even characters who aren't all that strong normally can put up huge blowouts on weak rivalries, I'm going with it.
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#128 | Dantezoid | message detail | filter
oh sorry lopen thought you were kleenex there
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#129 | The Mana Sword | message detail | filter
suck it kratos
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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN
#130 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
Darn, I failed to account for the Layton vs. Ace Attorney boost
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#131 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
I think I've still got a shot at this accuracy point...!
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#132 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter |
(3) Crash Bandicoot/Dr. Neo Cortex vs. (6) Pac-Man/Blinky

99% of people have this down as a near-lock for Pac-Man. Let me present the case for this being debatable.

Crash's 2010 x-stat is not trustworthy.
I think the reason most oracles around hovering around the 60/40 mark is because if you take Crash's most recent x-stat (2010) and Pac-Man's most recent (2008), you get a 60-40 victory. The problem I have with this is that no adjustment was made for the Mega Man/Ryu Hayabusa match (although there was some for Mega Man/Mario and Mario/Link). Ryu H beat Crash 62-38 in his first match, then put 52% on Master Chief in the day, before getting pulverised by Mega Man in the sprite round, to the tune of 72/27. It's well known that a lot of Ryu H's appeal comes from his design, and switching the bad ass ninja for something undistinct and unrecognisable, especially contrasted with Mega Man's classic image, is going to lead to an under-performance. See the pic here:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/%283%29Mega_Man_vs_%287%29Ryu_Hayabusa_2010.

Secondly, Ryu H has a history of going from hero to zero as soon as he's paired with elite characters - see the consecutive matches with Zero in 2008, where he went from outright beating him across a large majority of the vote, to getting crushed once Solid Snake. The same thing happened in 2007. I reckon Mega Man might have had a similar effect, especially since he seemed super-strong in 2010.

I think the more valid x-stat to use is Crash's 2008 one, which shows a 51/49 win for Pac-Man. Crash got 24.5% on Samus in R1. In 2007 Crash got 47% on Phoenix Wright. Those figures line up better with a 62-38ing from Ryu H, IMO, unless you think Ryu H and Master Chief both fell off a cliff in 2010. If you assume Phoenix was constant from 07 to 08, Crash is projected to get about 32% on '08 Bowser, which seems reasonable.

Pac-Man is weak.
Pac-Man did beat Ocelot in 2005, six years ago. But since then, he's done nothing much. He didn't show up again till 2007, where he just about beat Wander, in the face of Mario. In 2008, he seemingly had a good performance in R1, getting 37.5% on Mewtwo. But Mewtwo went out next round and almost lost to Midna. In 2010, Mewtwo scored 41% on Ganondorf, which gives Pac-Man a projected 31% on 2010 Ganondorf. Pac-Man was unable to make it in to 2010 himself, but did make a vote-in, where he didn't impress - losing to Midna, Big Daddy, Liquid Snake, Rikku and Frog, and only beating Sam Fisher by 2% of the vote. If you want to make projections based on the vote-in, you can use Frog to show a projected 25% on Bowser. This obviously under-values Pac-Man - he gets a boost from his picture and 'icon' votes, and Bowser was almost certainly stronger in 2010 than in 2008. All the same, I think Pac-Man's strength is being over-estimated.

Rivalry factor likely gives Crash/Cortex a boost.
This is entirely subjective, of course, but I think Cortex's "comic villain" style of rivalry will play better with the voters than a single ghost. Actually, I think that nostalgia (from the generation of gamers that came after the SNES) is probably a large part of the reason Crash has improved since his return in 2007 (compared to his disastrous performances in 02-04). I also think the high seeding, without a board rally, suggests there is a positive perception of this rivalry.

Night match favours Crash/Cortex.
Crash has a strong night vote, to the extent that he outright beat Ryu H in Europe. Pac-Man seems fairly balanced. Not a huge factor, but still something.

I don't have a strong leaning on who will win the match, but I do think it will be close. I've predicted Pac-Man in the oracle but gone for Crash in the battle bracket.

Pac-Man/Blinky with 50.5% of the vote.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
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#133 | Lopen | message detail | filter
If you gonna push that hard for something being that close you might as well go all the way!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#134 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
#135 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter |

From: Kotetsu534 | #132
The problem I have with this is that no adjustment was made for the Mega Man/Ryu Hayabusa match


Yes, there was.

Also, Crash's night vote isn't all that great.
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#136 | Lopen | message detail | filter
Well my problem with that whole analysis is that it's using x-stats to read Pac-Man (and to a lesser extent Crash) which is not a good idea. To me it's going to be a stomp because of the way their fanbases work.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#137 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
West Division: Round 1 - Match 27 – (3) Crash/Neo Cortex vs. (6) Pac-Man/Blinky

Moltar’s Analysis

Crash/Neo Cortex
The only good Crash game is CTR

Pac-Man/Blinky
The only good Pac-Man game is....Pac-Man

This is a debatable, yet overlooked match. Neither Crash nor Pac-Man is strong, and they both rely on nostalgia/iconic votes to get by. In 2010, Crash managed not to get killed by Ryu H., who then went on to get killed by Mega Man. Pac-Man failed to make the bracket in 2010, but I wouldn’t have expected him to perform well in a vote-in poll anyway. Pac-Man’s strong point is 1v1 matches against non-iconic or loved or respected characters.

Lucky for Pac, he gets Crash, who also draws from a similar wide and general fanbase, but is far less popular and therefore, weaker. Yeah, Crash also has PS1 Sony people, but he’s not beloved like other icons.

This is a weird match, but I’ve got a lot of faith in Pac-Man. Pac is respected, far more iconic and nostalgic, everyone knows about the ghosts being the rivals, and I’m positive people are less apathetic towards Pac-Man than they are Crash.

Moltar’s Bracket: Pac-Man/Blinky

Moltar’s Prediction: Pac-Man/Blinky - 60%



Lopen’s Analysis

As we've all said time and time again, Pac-Man is one of those dudes that everyone knows, but how many care about him is up for debate. Crash amusingly suffers from the same thing. The problem here for Crash is that Pac-Man is just better at both being known and being cared about, so that means Crash is going to fold in hilarious fashion.

So while this match might be close on paper using the X-Stats, I assure you it won't be. And it's not even necessarily due to RIVALRY FACTOR or anything like that-- I sincerely believe that Pac-Man destroys Crash 1v1 too. Unless of course uh... Pac-Man doesn't destroy here. Then I may have to reconsider this.

Lopen's prediction:
Pac-Man vs Blinky with 69.10%



Leon’s Analysis

This is an odd match. At first glance, Pac-Man seems like the obvious choice, but 1-on-1, Pac-Man/Crash is probably a 55/45 match in favor of Pac-Man. I feel pretty confident in saying Neo Cortex adds nothing to Crash overall, but Blinky probably adds at least a little bit, even in terms of joke value. The picture will probably be an iconic Pac-Man image, which should evoke some nostalgia from people who’ve played the game.

While Pac-Man isn’t exactly relevant, he’s still iconic, which is more than can be said for Crash. He hasn’t been relevant in a long time, and the further we get removed from the PS1 era, he’s slowly becoming a forgotten page in platforming history. Crash Bandicoot isn’t as terrible as most people seem to think he is and he probably won’t get blown out, but I don’t really see any advantages he has in this match.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Pac-Man vs. Blinky with 57.10%
#138 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Kleenex’s Analysis

I feel like people are getting a little too worked up about this match. Yes, Pac-Man is not terribly strong, and his stats are kind of all over the place, but Crash is arguably worse. Crash is also pretty much irrelevant - people know Pac-Man and this is kind of a goofy joke-y rivalry, which is almost assuredly going to help out over two characters no one gives a crap about. Pac and ghost cruise into round 2 with probably a...

wait for it


wait for it


60/40 win.

Kleenex's Prediction: Pac-Man vs. Blinky with 59.87%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Okay I admit I took one look at this match, picked Crash, and didn't give it a second thought. This is one that if I had checked any Board 8 discussions before brackets closed I would've changed for sure. I'm not saying Crash has no chance here - he's a 90s lovable character with a sorta memorable rivalry and he's up against someone that's literally only nostalgia and joke votes. The fact that they just picked a random ghost to be pac-man's "rival" says it all. It might as well be Missingno vs 6th Item In Your Inventory or something.

Unfortunately as much as I feel like crash should win this match, I don't think he will. You don't exactly have to do extensive research to see Gamefaqs voters aren't overly fond of 3d platformer mascot characters. Sure, Crash is better than some of the other generic chumps around, but not that much better. And I haven't seen the match picture and don't know if it's up yet, but I can't imagine Crash's picture will have anything on Pac Man. Unless someone goes for one of the 3d terrible Platformer Pac-man games? oh god please do it pleaaaase

AKJ predix Pac-man vs Blinky with 53.00%



Dante’s Analysis

Welp, heres a match that features only character who hit their prime years ago and have become unheard of since. Unfortunately for crash, Pac-Man at least has nostalgia value. I really have nothing else to say here, crash sucks. Lets go 70% range

Winner - Pac-Man/Blinky – 73.41%



Guest’s Analysis - DpOblivion

Here we have a showdown of two of the all-time great classic video game characters: Pac-Man and, of course….Crash Bandicoot! With Blinky and Dr. Neo Cortex also making an appearance in this match as their dreaded rivals, this is setting up to be an epic showdown between gaming legends. On one side, we have the original gaming icon; on the other, the coolest anthropomorphic character in gaming history. Two of the greatest of all-time collide in the Rivalry Rumble!

Forgive my- no, embrace my tremendous Crash Bandicoot fanboyism! I get very excited whenever Crash arrives in contest season. Unfortunately, however, that excitement is followed immediately by disappointment, as he always performs pretty poorly. His only hope is to grab the mainstream voters, but that hope is shattered against someone like Pac-Man. Throw in the fact that Blinky makes that pair the fun vote and this starts to look real ugly.

Hopefully Crash can leave this match with at least a little bit of dignity, but I doubt it. So instead, I leave you with this Crash Team Racing commercial to help bring back happy memories of one of the best characters ever:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aLmcjdYsaU

Dp’s bracket says: Pac-Man vs. Blinky

Dp’s prediction is: Pac-Man vs Blinky win with 71%

(I actually had this a lot higher, then I looked at Oracle and saw nearly everyone in the 50s/60s. Leave it to Board 8’s Official Biggest Crash Bandicoot Fanboy to have the least amount of faith in him in this match.)



Crew Consensus: The Crew has total Pac-Man fever.
#139 | X_Dante_X | message detail | filter
when pac-man gets 90% I'll have this
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#140 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter
a full 20% range in Crew predix huh
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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#141 | transcience | message detail | filter
even Dp went against Crash? yikes. what a stupid match.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#142 | DpObliVion | message detail | filter
Damn you, Dante!

For what it's worth, I originally put down 79% before checking the Oracle.

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Well I'll be go to hell.
#143 | th3l3fty | message detail | filter
huh

I was totally expecting Dp to take Crash
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I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#144 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
Crash vs Pac-Man

I've had Pac-Man in this one since the first minute, yet the pick has always bothered me. What's Pac-Man ever done for anyone to have confidence in him? Was I letting my irrational hatred of Crash cloud my judgment? It wasn't until just a moment ago that I convinced myself to skip the Bank and stick with Pac-Man for the Battle Challenge, and HERE'S WHY.

Pac's an odd duck in these popularity polls. He's looked good against Scorpion, Kefka, Ocelot, and Cloud... he's looked atrocious against Luigi, Yoshi, and Mario. Translation: no one loves this guy, but he can get by on recognizably, nostalgia, and his iconic status in the Video Game Hall of Fame. UNTIL, that is, he runs into someone (usually a Nintendo character) with even more appeal in all those areas, at which point he completely falls apart. So the question becomes, "which of those two groups does Crash fall into?" and the answer is of course the Kefka/Ocelot pack, meaning Pac will be at full strength tonight (for what that's worth).

The next question is, does Crash suck? Answer: yes. #3 does anyone care about that big yellow-headed thing? Answer: no. Now you might say that Pac/Some Ghost isn't a rivalry either, and I'd agree, but ehhh, at least it's funny and appeals to classic gaming nostalgia (sort of like a mini-L block). Plus, that picture. That picture! I can't imagine many on the fence voters will see that and be able to resist its charm. Combine all of the above, and you've got what sounds like a surefire recipe for the high 50s/low 60s to me!

Pac-Man - 59.16%
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#145 | TheKoolAidShoto | message detail | filter
NGamer hates Crash Bandicoot?

;_;
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It will launch for $350 with some Wii Sports s***. I bet my life on it. Damn, that KoolAid guy is awesome - NGamer64
#146 | Lopen | message detail | filter
Excellent. Masterful CAGE of the guest.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#147 | X_Dante_X | message detail | filter
All those years I spent on the mountain have not been wasted, my sensei
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#148 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
AKJ makes a good point about Pac getting stuck with goofy 3D platforming pics. So I looked it up and I couldn't believe it- Pac-Man has NEVER had an iconic 2D dot-eater match pic!

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Pac-Man

Closest he's come was having that in the background way back in 2002.

Suddenly he could go for EIGHTY PERCENT here!
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#149 | foxhead84 | message detail | filter
again...
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Link's is pretty much the video game equivalent of the Jesus story. -- Yoblaser
#150 | X_Dante_X | message detail | filter
quick close the poll
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