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Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

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#51 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Southwest Division: Round 1 - Match 21 – (1) Phoenix Wright/Edgeworth vs. (8) Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen

Moltar’s Analysis

Phoenix Wright/Edgeworth
I’d object to anyone taking this team out of the division

Gordon/Breen
Didn’t Gordon already beat Phoenix anyway?

He sure did, back in 2006, hot of the release of HL2: Episode 1. Since then, Phoenix has definitely gotten stronger thanks to further exposure of the PW franchise as well as a having a growing presence online. Gordon, on the other hand, looks to be either the same or down a bit. Gordon would still probably win a 1v1 match between the two, but this ain’t no 1v1 match here.

We all know that rivalries matter, and Phoenix has a great rival in the form of Edgeworth. Yeah, we all know he’s fodder, but he brings far more to the rivalry than Breen does for Gordon. In their vote-in poll, Gordon/Breen lost handily to Leon/Ada, who got killed, and barely beat Raynor/Kerrigan, who also got killed.

Still, it’s hard to have confidence in Phoenix/Edgeworth knowing that it’s the weakest 1-seed in the bracket. I think the format is going to be the main reason they win if they do manage to pull it off, as Gordon has the edge over both of them 1v1. The range here is huge for the lawyers, as it’s really hard to tell how much the site respects this rivalry. I’ll settle on something that seems to be in the middle.

Moltar’s Bracket: Phoenix/Edgeworth

Moltar’s Prediction: Phoenix/Edgeworth - 57%



Lopen’s Analysis

This match had me scratching my head a little bit to start the contest, but RIVALRY FACTOR kinda makes it a no brainer. Ol Pumpkinhead didn't beat Phoenix Wright by that much back in the day. I also like Tranny's points of “the match is short” and “the match is going to have low votals” and since he isn't official I'll steal them as my own. Damn, I'm pretty smart.

Lopen's prediction:
Phoenix vs Edgeworth with 63.14%



Leon’s Analysis

Phoenix Wright knew what he had to do. It’s not very often you get a second chance to undo a horrible atrocity like this, and this time, he had the help of his calculating rival to right his wrongs. Last time, he was just a newcomer. He had been reckless, and the universe had been paying dearly for it for the last five years. Now a rare opportunity to reverse that destiny has presented itself, and he knew he wouldn’t get another one. The statute of limitations was set to expire soon. Phoenix was glad that Edgeworth had agreed to put aside their differences as defense attorney and prosecutor for the time being to work together for the good of the universe. He knew he couldn’t do it alone. He needed help. Whenever people heard the code name for that case from five years ago, they trembled in fear. No, not KG-8, not SL-9, not even DL-6. That dreaded code name was…

GFNW.


Edgeworth: “Wright, are you sure you know what you’re doing?”

Phoenix: “I don’t know what will happen, but I know I have to try. We’ve only got one shot at this. I have to believe that everything will come together and we’ll figure this out in the end.”

Edgeworth: “One of these days, you should consider having a plan instead of rushing into things blindly, but I suppose that’s why I’m here.”

Phoenix: “What do you think we should do?”

Edgeworth: “Freeman is strong, emotionless, and seemingly not phased by anything. He will be tough to take down. We should focus our attacks on Breen. He is clearly the weak link here.”

Phoenix: “Yeah, I think you’re right. As long as we stick together and work as a team, we should be able to handle this. We’re a better team than they are, even if Freeman is stronger than either of us individually.”
#52 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Edgeworth: “So you’re betting everything on this ‘Rivalry Factor’ then, are you? There seems to be some circumstantial evidence pointing to this possibility, but if you’re wrong, we may go down hard.”

Phoenix: “I know it’s risky, but I think it’s our only chance. Together, we complement our strengths and can mask each other’s weaknesses.”

Edgeworth: “Fortunately, I’ve also managed to work out some other things with the Judge that may be beneficial to us. He’s agreed to cut the trial in half and do it at night, two things which should work in our favor. The audience for the trial will be smaller as well.”

Phoenix: “Wow, you’ve really done your homework, Edgeworth.”

Edgeworth: “Doing your homework for you…Sounds like grade school all over again.”

Phoenix: *nervous laugh* “Well, I’ll pull my weight when the time comes.”

Edgeworth: “I will be sending a bill to your office if you don’t. What are you shooting for in this trial anyway?”

Phoenix: “I’m aiming for a complete reversal of the previous ruling. We need to get things back to the way they used to be…once and for all.”

STAY TUNED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN OUR NEXT EPISODE: TURNABOUT RIVALRY!

Leonhart’s Prediction: Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth with 58.20%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This should be a fun division. I can potentially see any of the eight teams making it out of the division alive (certainly some have better chances than other) and hopefully we'll have a bunch of close matches. Tonight's match is one that everyone's been looking forward to. I'm going to support Phoenix here just because that's what all the cool kids do. He's got a lot going for him - a high seed, a legitimate rivalry, a night match, and Gordon vs. Breen is just kinda whatever. Still, despite that, I'm having some last minute reservations about the lawyers being able to pull off a win. The fact that Phoenix has never been able to perform in a 1v1 setting doesn't help, and the picture is pretty terrible to boot. Still, can't go against them for better or worse, so we'll just hope for the best.

Kleenex's Prediction: Phoenix vs. Edgeworth with 56.12%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

For you all, the day Phoenix restored his honor and beat Gordon Freeman was the day you've looked forward to for years. For me it was Saturday night.

Seriously, when I was filling out my bracket I didn't give this pick a second thought. It wasn't until checking out the board and being reminded of that terrible result that I started to see where the discussion was coming from. But it's not going to matter, not in this contest!

So if you ask any of the stat-heads, this match will come down to the true test of "Rivalries Matter." If they do, Phoenix is fine. I don't buy it, though. Phoenix has enough of a dedicated fanbase to get him into UMVC3 where, if you've been alive for the past year, you'll notice all the hardcore fighting game people hate it. I laugh at them all the way to not actually buying the game myself, haha! Phoenix will do fine here, and the only thing that would change the result is the next Half Life game actually coming out at some point in ever.

AKJ predix Phoenix vs Edgeworth with 54.54%



Dante’s Analysis

Man, I could really see this match going either way. I mean, obviously Freeman wins in a 1v1 – we’ve seen that before. But since we’re still in RIVALRYFEAR mode, I have no choice but to take the only pairing here that has an actual rivalry. Lets go Phoenix!

Winner - Phoenix/Edgeworth, 60.01%
#53 | TheKoolAidShoto | message detail | filter
#54 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Guest’s Analysis - lefty

I really don't get all the debate over this match. Sure, Breen is a total anchor, but is that really enough to overcome a 58-42 result only five years ago? It's not like Gordon has gotten that much weaker or anything, and Phoenix hasn't had much of anything in the past few years.

Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen wi---

http://img.imgcake.com/th3l3fty/ijpgym.jpg

Alright, really now. In the past five years, Gordon Freeman really hasn't done much of anything. Sure, he's won a few matches, even taken a GameSpot contest, but ever since the release of HL2:E2, there's been nothing. Phoenix Wright, on the other hand, has a rabid fanbase that continues to spread by word of mouth. While the sales may not match up to any of Valve's big titles, Phoenix is known in pretty much every corner of the internet, even if only for the Objection! meme.

But this isn't just Phoenix vs. Gordon, of course, and as we've come to see, rivalries really do matter. Phoenix's rivalry with Edgeworth is similar to the ones that have had the most success in this contest - not the generic "main character vs. final boss" type, but the direct rivalry that pops up again and again. Gordon, meanwhile, is stuck with a guy who, as far as I know, is seen on a screen pretty much all the time and never directly confronts Gordon - the type of rival that hasn't done well this year.

Add in Phoenix's status as the most-hyped character from UMvC3, the night match factor, and the reduced votals, and you've got yourself the perfect recipe for a turnabout victory. Finally, after 5 long years, we will lay to rest the tormented spirit of our lost comrade Amazing Telephone.

Phoenix Wright vs. Edgeworth with 55.19%



Crew Consensus: Phoenix and Edgey sweep
#55 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter

From: Master Moltar | #050
AKJ - 2
Moltar - 2
Kleenex - 1


AKJ > Kleenex count: 2
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#56 | Lopen | message detail | filter |
Moltar gets the point for MM/Wily

Nuh uh. I was closer. 2.41 off to your paltry 2.48 off. Gimme my point!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#57 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter
(4) Alucard/Dracula vs. (5) Commander Shepard/Saren Arterius

Alucard vs. Shepard heads up would be a debated match, I think. Alucard's done consistently well over many years of these contests, blasting Magus and getting 28% on Link last time, while Shepard did well last time around, getting 39% on Pikachu. By now it's become obvious that the second character has to be worth something (and, I'd suggest, be a great rival) for you to be a strong team. Saren is not present in the game that gave Shepard most of his strength, while Dracula obviously has a long rivalry with Alucard (and the name should help pull in a lot of floating voters). Shepard also doesn't have ME2's release directly behind him this time around, which I expect will see him be a little weaker than last time, at least till ME3 hits. We're seeing today that you don't even need to be strong to beat a rivalry that is totally carried by the stronger entrant with ease, and I think this match will be even worse for Shepard, given that knowledge of Castlevania's games is far more widespread than Phoenix Wright's. The one saving grace for him is that it's a day match, but I doubt that will matter much.

Alucard vs. Dracula with 63.5% of the vote.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#58 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
Alucard vs Shepard

Ugh, I hate this match. Mass Effect is the #1 "rising star" on this site, we've already seen it win GotY, we've seen ME3 become our most hyped future release, we've even seen Shepard himself look pretty good... Granted Saren and his ME1-onlyness would have doomed this team regardless, but I'm still upset that one of our more interesting wildcard entrants was put in such an unwinnable situation.

Although, upon further review- nah, can't justify the upset, Alucard's just got too much going for himself. He and Dracula look solid in the match pic, that perfect SotN background puts them over the top, and call me crazy but I'm honestly a true believer in Palindrome Power. Plus I think we're seeing a pretty clear trend towards more established/iconic/nostalgic pairings overperforming versus the more recent inventions. Darn.

Still, don't expect a blowout! Betting against Mass Effect in a Day Match just isn't a good idea; I've given up on 50%, but still think it can hang in there with around 40.

Alucard - 61.59%
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#59 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Southwest Division: Round 1 - Match 22 – (4) Alucard/Dracula vs. (5) Shepard/Saren

Moltar’s Analysis

Alucard/Dracula
Alucard....Dracula...I think I see something here...

Shepard/Saren
Should have been Wrex imo

So I always looked at Shepard/Saren as a weaker pair of Gordon/Breen. Judging by Phoenix/Edgeworth’s performance, Gordon/Breen are pretty weak. Poor Shepard.

The Commander, hot off of Mass Effect 2, scored 39% on Pikachu. He’s probably gone down a bit since then, and Saren is pretty much nothing.

Meanwhile, Alucard somehow still manages to be a decent midcarder, and he would most likely beat Shepard 1v1. The huge wildcard here is Dracula. I have no idea how GameFAQs will see this rivalry as, or how they’ll look at Dracula since he didn’t even originate from a game.

For some reason, I have a bad feeling about this match. I don’t think Alucard/Dracula are going to impress (and I have them escaping the division too aww yeah). This being a day match also hurts Alucard and greatly helps Shepard. I honestly don’t know what to expect percentage-wise, but going in the middle of a range helped with Phoenix/Edgeworth, so I’ll try the same here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Alucard/Dracula

Moltar’s Prediction: Alucard/Dracula - 60%



Lopen’s Analysis

“Come my son... let us embrace!”

Alucard vs freakin DRACULA. I think you can put most Castlevania protagonists here and they're going to do very well just because they're fighting Dracula. If any rivalry should get respect in this format, it's this one. Dracula's an icon, man. While we're harping on Dracula, I also think he could do kinda well for himself if he were ever let into the bracket.

So while Alucard vs Shep might be kinda debatable, I don't think the rivalry battles will be here-- even if Shepard vs Saren isn't a bad rivalry. Alucard vs Dracula are gonna get helped by the format more and Drac is gonna outclass the hell out of Saren.

Lopen's prediction:
Alucard vs Dracula with 71.04%



Leon’s Analysis

This match was highly debated before the contest began, but now that we’ve gotten to this point, I can’t see this as anything but an easy victory for Alucard/Dracula. Rivalries evidently are important. At the very least, the strength of the partner matters. In this case, Dracula has the potential to be a very solid partner, and Saren will be a non-factor in that department. From what I’m told, he’s only Shepard’s rival in the very first game, which will hurt him.

Some people have been saying that Shepard’s natural strength combined with the fact that this is a day match will carry him over Alucard, but I don’t really agree with that. I’m not really sure Shepard is stronger than Alucard 1-on-1 right now. He probably will be after ME3, but not right now. Everything seems to be in the cards for an easy Alucard/Dracula win.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Alucard vs. Dracula with 61.75%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Draculalucard is the obvious pick here. Alucard's not a scrub by any means and Dracula's an easily recognizable face. Decent rivalry too. On the other side of things, Shepard has been on the upswing since ME2 came out, and ME3 is right around the corner. Problem is, Saren's only in ME1. The rivalry could have been really good, but it wasn't as fleshed out as it could have been. Stranger things have happened, though, and I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Mass Effect duo managed to win the match, I just wouldn't bet on it.

Kleenex's Prediction: Alucard vs Dracula with 58.44%
#60 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Applekidjosh’s Analysis

I've been dreading this match because all logic points to it being the first point I'll lose in my bracket. Yeah, I bet against Alucard here and now something something THE PLAN. Actually I effed up this division pretty strongly! Yoblazer says some interesting things about Dracula's entry here being a pseudo-test for a non-gaming battle, since most people probably associate Dracula more with legend than with Castlevania. I wonder if that's the case?

All evidence releads to this match not being close at all because of the contest trends, so I know when to admit I was wrong and go against my own bracket.

AKJ predix Alucard and Dra-holy crap it's dracula backwards why was I never informed of this with 59.00%



Dante’s Analysis

Does anyone actually care about Shepard and Saren? I know mass effect is popular and all, but I don’t think people care about shepard himself – he’s probably the weakest on his on crew. And that’s pretty sad!

Winner – Alucard/Dracula – 65.89%



Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz

Since I am one of the few people having Shepard/Saren going all the way to the elite eight, this match is very important to me. Now granted, I made my bracket before rivalry factor was considered, but even after seeing all of this surprises this contest has offered so far I am still confident that Shepard/Saren can win against Alucard/Dracula.

Many people argue that since Saren was only in Mass Effect 1 nobody will know who he is and will vote Alucard/Dracula instead. People are underestimating the amount of people who played ME1. For example, at unikGamer even though Mass Effect 2 is all the way up at the #2 spot, Mass Effect 1 can still manage to make it into the top 10 (fun fact: Zelda and Mass Effect are the only two series to have multiple games in the top 10):

http://www.unikgamer.com/tops/favorite-video-games-of-all-time-1.html

Even if Mass Effect 2 isn't as nearly as strong on GameFAQs as it is on that site, it still shows that people who played Mass Effect 2 have also played Mass Effect 1 and consider both of them to be good games.

People also think that Dracula is going to significantly add to their rivalry but Saren will not really do anything for Shepard. I don't think Alucard/Dracula will be as strong as people are saying because they have only one game they have been rivals in, and this contest has shown that multi-game rivalries are the ones that get those blowouts, unless a rivalry is going against someone as weak as Vyse, and therefore their "iconic factor" is decreased significantly. Back on the topic of Dracula, the pic for him will most likely be from SotN, which isn't the image most people think of when they hear the word "Dracula". Also, if I remember correctly, Saren didn't do that bad in the Gamespot sidekick contest. Now that doesn't mean that he's strong, but it at least means that he isn't totally worthless (plus he doesn't seem like a good target for rallying from websites that are smelly pieces of 4chan).

This might be hard to explain, but I just can't see Alucard/Dracula winning, or at least not by blowout proportions. I'd be shocked if they got anywhere in the mid-60s.

Shepard/Saren - 53.30%

"Do you want your Oracle to go down the toilet???"

It already is.



Crew Consensus: Guest is going with the upset, Alucard and backwards Alucard is the favorite
#61 | th3l3fty | message detail | filter |
this is why the guest never wins

(stop signing up for your silly personal upsets people)

(I'M LOOKING AT YOU WAR)
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#62 | transience | message detail | filter
guest'd
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xyzzy
#63 | Ultimaphazon | message detail | filter |
What is a rivalry contest?
A miserable little pile of blowouts. But enough talk. Have at you.

EDIT: I know the famous dialogue is between Richter/Dracula, but who cares.
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There ain't no gettin' offa this "Cloud/Sephiroth > Link/Ganondorf" hype-train we're on!
Next stop: killing the Tales rivalry
#64 | pjbasis | message detail | filter
Considering the guests are doing better than half the crew it's not too bad.
#65 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter

From: pjbasis | #064
Considering the guests are doing better than half the crew it's not too bad.


wow get out
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#66 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
#67 | whatisurnameplz | message detail | filter
Whatever, this contest sucks anyways.

You know it's bad when the Cookie is perfect so far.
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Thanks for reinforcing your stupidity, jerks.
Einstein > You
#68 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
You know it's good when the Leonhart is perfect so far.
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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png
#69 | whatisurnameplz | message detail | filter

From: LeonhartFour | #068
You know it's good when the Leonhart is perfect so far.


Actually implying that this is better than GotD.
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Thanks for reinforcing your stupidity, jerks.
Einstein > You
#70 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
If I win this contest, then it is the greatest contest of all-time.
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif
#71 | foxhead84 | message detail | filter |
Moltar’s Prediction: 57% (minus 0,44%)

Actual result : Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth with 56,56%

Kleenex's Prediction: 56.12% (plus 0,44%)

straight down the middle.... wow you guys share the point....
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Link's is pretty much the video game equivalent of the Jesus story. -- Yoblaser
#72 | The Mana Sword | message detail | filter
closest without going over imo
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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN
#73 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
i get all of kleenex's points imo
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Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60859552
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#74 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter
kleenex unable to catch up to me, I see how it is
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<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
#75 | th3l3fty | message detail | filter
I should have chucked my Oracle pick in here since Moltar hadn't posted the writeups yet
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#76 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter |
(3) Chell/GlaDOS vs. (6) Ness/Giygas

At the time of CBVIII, Ness would have beaten GlaDOS (32% on Kirby is not good, projected mid 30s on Tifa is better, etc.), but I don't think that will matter much here. Ness' main strength base - Brawl - makes sure he receives no rivalry boost, and even it is neutered by both the presence of Giygas and his complete dominance of the match pic. Since CBVIII, we've had free Portal and Portal 2. Between those two events we had the GotD contest, where it is fair to say Portal came to town: annihilating Gears of War 2, 60-40ing a mainline FF, beating Mass Effect, going out reasonably against RE4. Portal 2, for most of this year, was the biggest game on this site this year, and GlaDOS has a good presence in it. I expect Portal's stock has risen greatly since CBVIII. Sure, Chell is naught but an avatar, but she's still recognisable, and GlaDOS hates her guts. It should be enough to take a little bit of a rivalry factor boost against Ness/Giygas, not that it's at all necessary for them to win.

Chell vs. GlaDOS with 68.66% of the vote.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#77 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Southwest Division: Round 1 - Match 23 – (3) Chell/GlaDOS vs. (6) Ness/Giygas

Moltar’s Analysis

Chell/GlaDOS
I really hope Portal players know who Chell is by now.

Ness/Giygas
Ness? In a debatable match? How outrageous.

Most people have that one match in the bracket that they feel super confident about and don’t know why it’s getting much talk. For me, this is that match (I think). I know there has been some debate over it, especially if you go by 2010 stuff, however I don’t think that applies now.

In 2010, Ness looked stronger than GlaDOS. Most people would agree that Ness was overrated through Big Daddy, who overperformed on Tifa, who overperformed on Seph, and then you’ve got close matches with Snake and Cloud and Link after that. GlaDOS wasn’t so lucky, as she got killed by Kirby who lost to Sonic who got killed by Link. Despite Ness being overrated, he still probably beats GlaDOS in 2010.

Then Valve released Portal for free.

Then Valve released Portal 2, which as of a few months ago, was top-runner for GotY on GameFAQs.

Now we come to this match today. Ness is still Ness, might be a bit weaker now. Also, he has Giygas as his rival, who we’ve already seen get 15% on Ganondorf years ago. Safe to say, it’s not much of a factor here. You also have to remember that Ness gets most of his strength from the Smash Bros series, so it might be safe to say that most Ness voters don’t even care about the rivalry from Earthbound.

Then, you’ve got GlaDOS with Chell. Chell is weaker than GlaDOS, but I think the rivalry here is much more respected. GameFAQs definitely played Portal and Portal 2, going by its performances in polls so far, so I believe that most of the voters are aware of who Chell is and her rivalry with GlaDOS. This is why I think they’re going to win this match without any problem.

Today, I’d take GlaDOS over Ness. I believe that free Portal and Portal 2 boosted the series and its characters. Throw in her rivalry with Chell (basically you) and I can easily see it outperforming Ness, who will be held back by his rival (because Smash > Earthbound), by a good margin.

(Don’t play Earthbound)

Moltar’s Bracket: Chell/GlaDOS

Moltar’s Prediction: Chell/GlaDOS - 64%



Lopen’s Analysis

“WTF Ness's rival is Master Hand not Giygas!!!”

That pretty much sums up how I feel about this match. I don't really know how good a rivalry GLaDOS vs Chell is to the fanbase, but it can't hurt more than Giygas does, who I'm convinced the majority of Ness's voters don't even know exists.

1v1 GLaDOS vs Ness is probably tough, but here, I don't really think so. 12 hours probably helps GLaDOS out too.

Lopen's prediction:
GLaDOS vs Chell with 55.55%



Leon’s Analysis

Before the release of Portal 2, this match may have been a lot more debatable, but Portal as a whole seems to have gotten much stronger within the past year. Portal 2 also gives Chell and GlaDOS some much-needed recognizability in their pics. Plus, Ness has looked pretty bad in the last few contests. It’s possible that Ness is still the strongest character in the match, and Chell has the potential to be really weak, but I don’t think she’ll end up weaker than Giygas. Plus, this is an Earthbound rivalry, so I think Ness could be hurt by the focus being on Earthbound and not on Smash Bros. because Portal is much stronger than Earthbound. In addition to that, this match is as night, which should help out Chell/GlaDOS.

I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Ness/Giygas won this because Chell has the potential to be a very bad anchor for GlaDOS since she’s such a boring, faceless character, but I think Portal 2 will help even things out for them and get them the win.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Chell vs. GlaDOS with 55.55%
#78 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Kleenex’s Analysis

Ness sucks.

Kleenex's Prediction: Chell vs. Glados with 64.01%



Applekidjosh’s Analysis

I'm probably one of the biggest Earthbound fans on the board. I'm one of the few around here to rock an Earthbound username. Earthbound still fills me with warm feelings and when I played it with my little brother this summer it was a wonderful experience, right down to killing 176 Starman Supers to get that Sword of Kings.

and yet?

That means nothing because DID YOU SEE THE PART WITH THE TURRETS AND THEY WERE THE TURRETS FROM THAT PART AND WHEATLEYS ALL "HAHA I GOT YOU" AND YOU'RE LIKE NOPE AND YOU'RE GOING AND THERE'S THAT BIG PLACE WITH ALL THE GELS EVERYWHERE AND YOU HAVE TO FIGURE IT OUT ON YOUR OWN AND IT'S LIKE MAN I AM SO SMART AND OH GOD THE ENDING DID YOU SEE THE EFFING ENDING THAT WAS ONE OF THE BEST THINGS I'VE SEEN IN MY LIFE WOOOOOOOO

(also why isn't this Ness vs Pokey ugh Bacon and Wheatley vs GlaDOS ugh Bacon)

AKJ predix Chell vs GlaDOS with 57.65%



Dante’s Analysis

Man, this match really scares me. My gut tells me to pick Glados, but I have severe reservations about it. Portal is definitely the latest thing, and Ness/Giygas isn’t exactly a rivalry, but man it just feels wrong to take the joke entry here. Oh well

Winner - Chell/GlaDOS – 62.34%



Guest’s Analysis - nintendogirl

Yadda yadda liecake. Yadda yadda aperture science daughter day. Lemons, potatoes, turrets, oh my.

And other such similar quotation trifles.

GLaDOS/Chell are walking this. Earthbound is weak and irrelevant, Portal is internet friendly, has a GotY candidate freshly released to great acclaim, Chell and GLaDOS are both better for it and their rivalry is far more cemented in this strange world of Rivalry Matters.

Also, I’m British so I never played EB so therefore it must be bad. Tough luck on the big red splodge I assume must be Earthbound’s final boss, I guess.

The homicidal robot and her lab rat with 62.23%



Crew Consensus: Portal rivalry sweep
#79 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
For the sake of our team, I now hope this match ends exactly 55.55%

A perfect team Oracle prediction
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#80 | The Mana Sword | message detail | filter
price is right'd
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#81 | foxhead84 | message detail | filter
Master Moltar posted...
Dante’s Analysis

Man, this match really scares me. My gut tells me to pick Glados, but I have severe reservations about it. Portal is definitely the latest thing, and Ness/Giygas isn’t exactly a rivalry, but man it just feels wrong to take the joke entry here. Oh well


Portal is in no way, shape or form a joke entry... Seriously, you have to play the game.... It IS a great game (aside from all the joke you heard all over the place)
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#82 | X_Dante_X | message detail | filter
I have played the game, both of them
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#83 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
GlaDOS vs Ness

Call me CRAZY, but this match has always made me a little nervous. And frankly I must be crazy- everyone liked Portal, everyone bought and then loved Portal 2 (won first half GotY with ease), GlaDOS has already proven she's got a little strength, and heck, even WCC has made noise in polls! I don't think Chell gets Freeman Factored (we used to say Gordon always lost because of boring name + boring looking + you never saw his face in game) since she was plastered all over Steam for a month, and because she has the notable advantage of looking hot in this pic. Chell/GlaDOS is a little odd, but still a better "rivalry" than most of this bracket.

What can Ness counter with? Nintendo character from a nostalgic 90s RPG... a nice counter under normal circumstances, but after further consideration, it's just not enough here! Earthbound is no Chrono Trigger, Ness probably draws heavily from the Smash fanbase these days, and they won't be there for him given this format + that tiny little picture. Also, EB is secretly a TERRIBLE Night Vote candidate! Look for Portal to push this out to

GlaDOS - 63.35%
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#84 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter |

From: Ngamer64 | #083
and because she has the notable advantage of looking hot in this pic.


You know, as I was playing Portal 2 not too long ago, I was wondering if Chell was supposed to be considered attractive or if anybody actually did think she was.
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#85 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
Welllll, I'm not sure if I'd go that far with her in-game appearance, but IMO there's no arguing with

http://www.upload.speedrunwiki.com/images/gaming/PortalSteamLogin.png
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#86 | LeonhartFour | message detail | filter
Yeah, I'm not seein' it.

But then again, I'm not a fan of big lips.
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#87 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 56.56% 15111
Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen 43.44% 11606
TOTAL VOTES 26717

Alucard vs. Dracula 63.23% 24593
Commander Shepard vs. Saren Arterius 36.77% 14304
TOTAL VOTES 38897



Crew Predictions - 22/22

What Happened: PW wins his debated match easily and Alucard has no trouble with the Mass Effect rivalry

Why it Happened: PW is legit and his rivalry with Edgeworth gets more love then Gordon and who cares. Same goes for the next match, except Shepard and Saren are even weaker.

What will Happen: Alucard/Dracula looking good for Round 2, but it's looking to be somewhat close.



Crew Prediction Challenge - poor guest

Moltar - 22
Leon - 22
AKJ - 22
Guest - 20
Dante - 20
Kleenex - 20
Lopen - 19



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar and Kleenex share the point for PW/Edgeworth, Leon gets the point for Alucard/Dracula

Leon - 7
Lopen - 5
Guest - 3 (Luster: 1, Menji: 1, pjbasis: 1)
Dante - 2
AKJ - 2
Moltar - 1.5
Kleenex - 1.5
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Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#88 | Lopen | message detail | filter
Well that there is something.

I think there's a chance we could nail this 55.55 with Portal usually being frontloaded and all, though!
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#89 | Lopen | message detail | filter
Also what the hell at the "Chell looks hot" hype.

Speaking as a straight male, there are probably five+ better looking guys in the bracket!
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#90 | Kotetsu534 | message detail | filter
Gambling on a big Portal 2 boost was unwise. Oops.
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#91 | AppIekidjosh | message detail | filter

From: Lopen | #089
Also what the hell at the "Chell looks hot" hype.

Speaking as a straight male, there are probably five+ better looking guys in the bracket!


I like the cut of your jib
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#92 | Ngamer64 | message detail | filter
Frog vs Raiden

Looks as though some folks are lowering their expectations for Chrono Trigger after seeing the Bosses hang such an impressive number on Tidus. I call that a gosh darn mistake. This new pairing pairing is a far cry from MGS3's in terms of Rivalries Matter, plus they're clearly outclassed in this match pic unlike last time, plus The Boss >> Vamp, plus Big Boss >>> Raiden, and I could do on like this.

If anything I'd say the bigger threat to our Oracle scores would be these CTers pulling a Terra/Kefka on us! Obviously the percentage could never get quite so crazy since they won't have any RPG SFF working in their favor, but still, when it comes to nostalgic 90s rivalries that didn't take place in fighting games, it doesn't get much better than Frog/Magus. I'm thinking the format (combined with some potential help from these lower votals/site shift) allows these two to shake off CT's downward trend of the last few years and post a real nice number in this one. As in, something that'll leave us with no doubt about them making a deep run in this bracket. As in, something like

Frog - 66.11%
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#93 | Big Bob | message detail | filter
Chell is hot. I don't know what kind of standards you guys have.
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#94 | TheKoolAidShoto | message detail | filter

From: Big Bob | #093
Chell is hot. I don't know what kind of standards you guys have.


Racist standards
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#95 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Southwest Division: Round 1 - Match 24 – (2) Frog/Magus vs. (7) Raiden/Vamp

Moltar’s Analysis

Frog/Magus
Embarrassment + Embarrassment = Division winner?

Raiden/Vamp
The most fabulous rivalry in the bracket

This should be ugly. GameFAQs doesn’t respect Raiden at all, as he looks bad in pretty much every match he’s in. He even failed to make the cut in 2010 in the vote-ins. He does have somewhat of a rivalry with Vamp in a few of the games, but I doubt MGS fans care much about it (speaking as one).

On the other hand, you have Frog and Magus, two beloved CT characters that, are admittedly, getting weaker as time goes on. Both lost in R1 in 2010, though considering their opponents, it wasn’t much of a surprise. Putting them together as rivals should help them out here since they’re both decent individually, like a weaker version of Sub/Scorpion.

Looking at the vote-in poll Raiden/Vamp won, you can see it is pretty much garbage. Everything that made it in the main contest got killed except Yuna/Seymour, and they lost 60/40 to Fox/Wolf, who I definitely wouldn’t take over Frog/Magus. So yeah, I’m expecting big things from Frog/Magus here. High 60s would send a clear message to Alucard/Dracula.

Moltar’s Bracket: Frog/Magus

Moltar’s Prediction: Frog/Magus - 67%



Lopen’s Analysis

The only real feud of Chrono Trigger vs a battle of guys stabbing the hell out of each other with knives and... spiky high heel things. I don't know-- their fight scenes in MGS4 were cool and all, but I don't think the fanbase is going to be that shallow to consider Raiden/Vamp a good rivalry. I also think that the fanbase has the sense to anti-vote Vamp because Vamp sucks (LOL).

Everyone knows Raiden's rivalry in this bracket should've been Raiden/Solid Snake, with Snake being the villain of the pair. Go my Snake Eraser.

Oh and yeah Frog/Magus should be pretty strong, too, enough to beat them even if this was a respected MGS rivalry. Strong enough to beat Alucard vs Dracula? We'll see!

Lopen's prediction:
Frog vs Magus with 72.19%



Leon’s Analysis

For all of the flack Frog and Magus have taken in recent years (and rightfully so), I can’t see them losing this one. Raiden is probably weaker than either character, and Vamp almost certainly is. I can’t see them getting the benefit of the voters thinking Raiden/Vamp is the better rivalry either. I think a lot of voters will consider Frog/Magus a good rivalry, and it will benefit from that. I just don’t see anything in Raiden/Vamp’s favor that could point to them winning this one.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Frog vs. Magus with 65.65%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This is a match I'm very much looking forward to despite Raiden probably getting his ass kicked, mostly because I really want to see where Frog and Magus fall. They have everything working against them - it's a day match and Chrono Trigger is becoming less and less relevant. Raiden and Vamp did pretty well (???) in the vote-in as well. Frog and Magus should still win here, Raiden's never been that strong and lol Vamp, but there's a pretty big range that Frogus could fall into so I expect percentages to be all over the place.

Kleenex's Prediction: Frog vs. Magus with 57.83%
#96 | Master Moltar (tc) | message detail | delete | filter
Applekidjosh’s Analysis

Oh another match with Mortal Kombat characters? I haven't played the games since the Genesis days but I still remember Raiden, Vamp must be one of the new guys. Fighting Game rivalries mean nothing unless you're one of the super iconic rivalries, though, so it's not gonna help much.

Meanwhile to any JRPG fan, Frog vs Magus is a legendary god-tier rivalry or something. I mean, I guess it's cool that the amount of conclusion you get from their story depends entirely on how much optional and post-game content you watch? Some kind of preview for the glory of WRPGs to come! But yeah, this is a no-brainer. The real issue is how much these DBZ guys can put up on these nobodies, to see how they'll look for round 2.

My theory? Since everyone in the world is seemingly playing Skyrim right now, their RPG love will be tilted away from the J and towards the W, making Frog underperform.

AKJ predix Frog vs Magus with 50.01%, less than 7 votes



Dante’s Analysis

You know, I’ve been looking at the crew prediction ratings – I’m not nearly low enough. Time to take a crazy balls to the walls upset, I think. MGSfear activate

Winner - Raiden/Vamp, 59.47%



Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534

Chrono Trigger doesn't get many chances to put one over MGS these days, but this is one. Raiden/Vamp did manage to win their vote in, and quite easily at that, but no one from it has looked to have strength. Banjo/Gruntilda got 22.5% on Mega Man/Wily while Yuna/Seymour got 60-40'd by Fox/Wolf. I wouldn't take Fox/Wolf to beat Frog/Magus. CT might have been on a decline over the past few years, to the point where in CBVIII Magus couldn't compete with Alucard, and Frog did worse than Kefka on Bowser, but, if anything can harness the strength that the 90's RPG offers, it has to be this rivalry. We've seen older, more nostalgic rivalries do well throughout the contest and that should continue here.

However, Raiden/Vamp are probably a bit stronger than most expect. They have a reasonable rivalry and the only times Raiden hasn't been saddled with other MGS since MGS4 he's done fairly well - 43.5% on '08 Master Chief and winning the vote-in poll. There is a chance that Frog/Magus are able to go big here, but I don't expect them to. Raiden/Vamp should have enough about them to stop them getting too far into the 60s.

Frog vs. Magus with 62.75% of the vote.



Crew Consensus: Everyone is siding with Frog vs. Magus...except Dante
#97 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | message detail | filter
Why Dante picks the opposite I wonder?
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#98 | KamikazePotato | message detail | filter
Frog/Magus has always come across as a B8 creation to me. I question how much people really care about it. It won't be enough to lose here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up looking bad.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#99 | KamikazePotato | message detail | filter
5-minute reaction: yup
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#100 | Lopen | message detail | filter
Well then. Glad I have Alucard taking the division. Hell, I think Phoenix/Edgeworth have a better chance at taking the division than Frog/Magus at this point.
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