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Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew
Safer Sephiroth 777 posted... Crew forgot the RIVALRY FACTOR!! This match makes me wonder if the rivalry factor exists at all or if this contest is just popular characters going up against trash opponents. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/2bigwigpngut.png |
Rivalry factor should really influence popular things though. It's like a multiplier. Trash will always be trash. |
What the whaaaat --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
(3) Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker vs. (6) Dan Hibiki/Sagat What was it I said about some of these 5/6 seeds being terrible? Vyse/Galcian may not be stronger than Dan/Sagat, but I'd be surprised if they were far apart. Dan made a vote-in for CBVIII, and came third last, ahead of Yoshimitsu and Jigglypuff (if Missingno and Mudkip hadn't been pulling nearly 25% of the vote, Jigglypuff would've beaten him too), behind Alex Mercer and Scorpion, and doubled by a leeched The Boss. You can spin that any number of ways but it smells of bad fodder. Sagat was in an 09 intra-series poll where he got crushed by M. Bison and Vega. The only question is how much Chris/Wesker are going to win by. Wesker seemed to take a boost from RE5, letting him have that match with Ken (who got 36% on Ganondorf). Chris got 28% on Cloud in 2010, which is about the same as what Ridley got. Just using the eye-test those look a lot better than anything Dan or Sagat could manage. I don't expect we're about to see an exact repeat of today's match; Chris/Wesker probably aren't quite as strong as Terra/Kefka, but something in the high 60s or low 70s wouldn't surprise me. I can't deny the possibility though, so I'll aim fairly high. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker with 73.5% of the vote. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Yeah.
Not too shocked about this. In fact if I was gaming the crew system I
would've went about this for my prediction, but I thought less was more
likely. That said I don't call this rivalry factor it's just SFF. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Master Moltar | #388 augh me But somehow I'm going to get the Accuracy point despite being 10%+ off! --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
also hey guys Kid/Guy vs. Vyse/Galcian who you got upset city ahead am I right --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Bigwig_rah posted... Safer Sephiroth 777 posted... Crew forgot the RIVALRY FACTOR!! This match makes me wonder if the rivalry factor exists at all or if this contest is just popular characters going up against trash opponents. Leon isn't trash. Ezio and Altair have always done well for themselves. Falcon held Cloud to the 60s just last year. --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
From: Ngamer64 | #408 Cloud essentially got 70% in that match (69.93%, to be exact), so it's a bit misleading to say this. --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
Chris vs Sagat Let's recap. Jill let us down by never really being in the match versus Kirby, followed by Resident Evil rolling out a much, much worse disappointment a couple days later when Leon got annihilated in one of the biggest Oracle underperformances ever. Meanwhile the two most impressive showings of this first week have been turned in by Mortal Kombat and Street Fighter characters. (I guess now you could also make a case for Kefka, but let's put that aside for the moment!) And what's this, we've got a RE versus Fighting Game rematch tonight? Chris is clearly the strongest character in the poll, but can't ignore trends; time to hedge those bets with a percentage in the mid 50s! ...is what we'd all be saying any other year. But this is 2011, and all of a sudden trends relating to genres and series and individual games don't matter, because Rivalries Matter. Even as the guy who's been banging that drum since day one, I'm almost thinking we're going a little too overboard with the rivalry factor right now! Dan/Sagat leaves something to be desired in that area, certainly, but Chris/Wesker isn't an ideal candidate in the X/Zero/Ryu/Ken mold either. To me this feels like the kind of matchup this site will receive with a yawn, and those generally end up 60/40 affairs, so I'll go ahead and- Wait a tick, now that I look a little more closely, Sagat is AWFUL. Near last place in the Favorite SF2er poll I expected, but getting more than doubled by Vega in the SF2 Bosses Fourway? And Dan was dreadful in that 2009 Vote In. Alright fine I'll go mid 60s, but no higher! Chris - 65.77% --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
ngamer you break my hearts --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
Ugh I really wanna raise my prediction but REfear is keeping me at bay. |
Southeast Division: Round 1 - Match 15 – (3) Chris Redfield/Wesker vs. (6) Dan/Sagat Moltar’s Analysis Chris/Wesker 7 minutes. Actually I only need 7 seconds to think about this match Dan/Sagat I can understand Ryu/Ken, but this... Chris and Wesker would beat Dan and Sagat individually. I mean Wesker almost beat Ken last time, and he is clearly Street Figher’s #2 character. Dan...I’m pretty sure is weaker than Sagat, and Sagat is like...a fourth tier SF character in strength at best. Chris and Wesker have a well-known and legitimate rivalry and should do much better than Leon/Ada, while Dan/Sagat are way overshadowed by Ryu/Ken. I highly doubt the average voter is even aware of then Dan/Sagat rivalry. Still, Dan is a pretty liked guy, and fighting game rivalries have looked great so far, so at least the SF team has that. These days, anyone can blow anything out. It kind of seems high for the RE team, but this is less of me having high expectations for Chris/Wesker and more of me have little expectations of Dan/Sagat. Moltar’s Bracket: Chris/Wesker Moltar’s Prediction: Chris/Wesker - 68% Lopen’s Analysis I was all ready to bust out some crazy speech about how Dan and Sagat were gonna win this, something about pink gis and the strongest fighting style. Something about Resident Evil disappointing this contest and how fighting games have been doing well. But man, just look at that pic: http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-15.jpg Chris and Wesker look so badass and Dan/Sagat are literally SF4 screen shots with names pasted over them. The pictures don't even gel, being on different backgrounds and with borders in between. Even I will have trouble voting for them. This one is going to be ugly. I feel weird thinking this could be a 60%+ match now when I was just humoring an upset, but that pic is just that lopsided. Hell I didn't even think Fox vs Yuna was too bad, to put it into a little perspective. But uh, go Dan go ;_; Lopen's prediction: Wesker vs Chris (wrong order...? peh) with 57.34% Leon’s Analysis I’d like to think Dan/Sagat has a chance of scoring an upset here after how well fighting game characters have done up to this point, but…Well, just take a look at these: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3396 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3691 Yeah, these aren’t very inspiring performances. I know the boss poll is a bunch of 4-way LFF, but it shows that Sagat isn’t nearly as loved as Bison (who we’ve seen is a decent low midcarder in these contests). Plus, I don’t think the Alpha games are very popular here. Both of these things are very unfortunate, because I think Sagat’s a pretty cool guy, and I love the Alpha games. I don’t think either one will glean much of anything from being in SFIV, although Dan is more likely to benefit if one of them did because this is his first appearance in the main series. But Chris/Wesker should be strong enough to handle this. RE5 is popular enough for people to recognize and respect this rivalry. Plus, we already saw Wesker go toe to toe with Ken Masters in the last Character Battle, and Chris has gotten much more popular due to his starring role in RE5. The RE rivalries have disappointed pretty badly thus far in the contest, but I can’t see them losing this one. Their percentage may not be all that impressive though. Leonhart’s Prediction: Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker with 60.60% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Is this match a trap? It could be. Neither Chris nor Wesker are really all that strong, but then again Dan and Sagat probably aren't either. I will admit that I don't know enough about the Street Fighter mythos to know how strong of a rivalry Dan vs. Sagat really is, so it's tough to gauge how much RIVALRY FACTOR may be in play this match. After the stinker that was Leon and Ada earlier this contest, I'm wary to pick Chris and Wesker here, but my gut feeling is that Dan and Sagat are just plain weaker, regardless of if the rivalry is better or not. Kleenex's Prediction: Chris vs. Wesker with 56.78% Applekidjosh’s Analysis Okay this match really just confuses me. Speaking as someone whose Street Fighter knowledge comes from some pickup games in an arcade during the SF2 days, I know Sagat is a cool guy and I think Dan is the resident joke character? What in the world do they have to do with each other? Like, I seriously don't get this. It would be like having Mr. Game and Watch vs Master Hand as a Smash rivalry, right? Anyway it doesn't really matter because Chris was apparently in some zombie games and Wesker is known for having sunglasses. Both of these guys are solid midcarders iirc and that's all it's gonna take here. It will be interesting to compare these Street Fighter chumps to the Ryu/Ken dream team. How much weaker will they be without the SYNERGY of a true rivalry? Also, for what it's worth, these guys would have to put up a killer performance here for me to have any faith in them over Team Boss next round. AKJ predix Chris vs Wesker with 56.78% Dante’s Analysis Okay, what the hell – After a solid day of me not caring about anyone, we suddenly get a match where I adore everyone (except tiger spam, but dans so awesome he can count twice). Chris/Wesker have the mutually accepted rivalry that will clearly win this match, but not because they’re stronger. Dan must avenge his father. Dan will do whatever it takes to take down Sagat and prove the superiority of his saikyo arts (again). So really, the match will begin and Dan will immediately turn on Sagat and start taking him out. Chris and Wesker will just kinda watch for a minute and walk away the official winners, but I think we all know who the true winner of this match is. (And its not the tiger, screw those vanilla sf4 tiers) Winner - Dan- Chris/Wesker – 64.27% Guest’s Analysis - pjbasis CHRIIIIIISSSS. Aw yeah, time for an RE rep to win something. Chris vs. Wesker is THE Resident Evil rivalry, harkening back to the original game and being the show of the most recent outing. Newcomers and hardcore fans alike will show up to vote, and leave the street losers a pummeled mess on the floor. Dan vs. Sagat is a rivalry though? I haven't really touched any games besides II and a little third strike, so what do I know? I get the feeling it's kind of a joke thing, as Dan is that funny looking guy in pink and Sagat is kind of bad ass. That's cool and all, but Chris/Wesker is legit. They're probably the two strongest individually now, and the rivalry factor should really help them out. Maybe I'm fanboy reasoning, but I'm kinda hoping they could even defeat the bosses, with the logic that RE series > MGS3. And I'm also not trusting any vote-in people. FFX could conceivably win, and then I'm sure Chris/Wesker can pull that off. But I digress, Chris/Wesker win with like...71.17% Crew Consensus: Chris and Wesker win this match |
alright guys this isn't funny anymore --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
From: Master Moltar | #413 Akuma. Also, I'm surprised the guest is the only guy going over 70% here. I felt like I would be the low guy today! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Aw yeah. I'm still afraid it's gonna be closer to 80, but I don't think anyone's taking it that far so I should win by default. |
Crew curse let's do it. Dan vs Sagat gonna take this --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: The Mana Sword | #415 you clearly checked my prediction in the oracle topic and copied me --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
From: LeonhartFour | #416 I dunno, 36% on Ganon vs. 32% on Squall and everyone knows Ganon wins that match so... --- Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60859552 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Nabbed that second guest point. Still regretting not going for almost 80. |
From: Master Moltar | #420 Ken overperformed on Elevator Ganon...! (I'm going to ignore the blatant falsity of the second sentence) --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
Actually I think Menji beat you to #2 by stealing Samus/Ridley away from me. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Samus Aran vs. Ridley 80.64% 23136 The Kid vs. The Guy 19.36% 5555 TOTAL VOTES 28691 Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo 78.66% 26786 Vyse vs. Galcian 21.34% 7265 TOTAL VOTES 34051 Crew Predictions - 14/14 What Happened: More blowouts Why it Happened: Samus/Ridley went as expected, but Terra/Kefka did really well. Could be SFF, could be Vyse just being that awful. What will Happen: Don't let the numbers fool you, Samus and Ridley are fine. Crew Prediction Challenge - free points Moltar - 14 Leon - 14 AKJ - 14 Guest - 13 Kleenex - 13 Lopen - 12 Dante - 12 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Menji gets the point for Samus/Ridley, Leon gets the point for Terra/Kefka Lopen - 4 Leon - 4 Dante - 2 Guest - 2 (Luster: 1, Menji: 1) AKJ - 1 Moltar - 1 Kleenex - 0 --- Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60859552 Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Tidus vs Big Boss And here we are, my most anticipated matchup of R1! There's others I've always thought were more debatable, but this is the poll I've had circled on my calendar ever since I decided that the Samus/Ridley team was going to be an enormous flop in a Rivals format and would need to get knocked out of my bracket as soon as possible. (And who ever thought that even Kefka would be making an early KO look possible? Yikes!) Needless to say, since Day One I've been plugging a Big Boss win here, the sheer magnitude of which would give Samus nightmares. Let me tell you why. * I counted on B8's picsmiths to deliver an image of Big Boss looking like the ultimate American hero while Tidus looked like he was just cast in the ultimate American romantic comedy. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-16.jpg * I counted on the lack of a Night Vote eroding FFX's percentage. based on Yuna/Fox, I like those chances! * I counted on rivalries mattering in this format. which is not to say that Tidus/Jecht is a bad choice in this regard, but that the Bosses make for one of the most compelling pairs in gaming history. based on every result since Subby/Leon, I really like my odds here! * I counted on Tidus continuing the ugly downward trend he's been displaying ever since the Shadow win in 2004. * I counted on BB's huge 22% showing in the 12 way vote-in to be worth something. (it's the highest percentage anything's ever pulled in a vote in since SB started running them back in 2009. even Mega Man X only earned 17% in his 12 way poll, and Crono/Lavos didn't manage 21%) Add it all together and what do you get? If my math is right, something right around... Big Boss - 58.11% --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
Southeast Division: Round 1 - Match 16 – (2) Tidus/Jecht vs. (7) Big Boss/The Boss Moltar’s Analysis Tidus/Jecht Man the FFX pairs had some bad luck with the draw Big Boss/The Boss Yeah, this rivalry is a seven seed. I mean just look at the other 7 seeds, Tidus and Jecht got the worst possible draw. Not only are Big Boss/ The Boss the strongest 7th seeds, but they very well may be strong enough to escape this division. We’ve seen all four of these characters in 1v1 matches, and Big Boss is the strongest here. This isn’t a knock at everyone else in the match though, as Big Boss pretty much acts like a Snake proxy most of the time so he usually does great. Tidus, Jecht, and even The Boss aren’t fodder and likely to be in the same general area of strength. Both of these rivalries are legit and well-respected, so I don’t see voters “smart voting” the good one over the bad one as demonstrated in other matches. I feel that it’s...well pretty much split. Basically, all signs are pointing at this being a close match. I think the MGS3 duo takes this match because it comes down to them having the strength edge thanks to Big Boss. I wouldn’t be surprised if the site feels that Tidus/Jecht have the better rivalry. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if The Bosses are very respected and blow out the competition. Moltar’s Bracket: Big Boss/The Boss Moltar’s Prediction: Big Boss/The Boss - 55% Lopen’s Analysis I got Bosses in my bracket here, but there are a few things making me doubt it pans out. - RIVALRY FACTOR is even stronger than I expected. I think Tidus/Jecht get more out of that. Not enough to overwhelm on that alone, cause the Bosses get some too (though I've heard some say “that's not a rivalry!”, but I think it's more respected. - Given the weird contest format leading to difficulty in thinking of nominations, I'm starting to suspect that seeding might be a better read into how much a fanbase cares about a rivalry than I originally thought. - Tidus/Jecht actually have the better picture. Big Boss is so zoomed in. It's not exactly lopsided, but yeah. Tough match. Big Boss vs Tidus you give the edge to Big Boss pretty easily, but Jecht probably beats The Boss and there's just better synergy between the FFX duo. Time to abandon my bracket two days in a row! Lopen's prediction: Tidus vs Jecht with 50.57% Leon’s Analysis This is my single least favorite match in the entire contest. I despise the fact that this match was set up. In every contest, there seems to be at least one of these setups between some of my favorite characters, and this contest is no exception. I’ve seen some debate over this match, but I don’t see it being close. Yes, FFX is a stronger game than MGS3. But is Tidus/Jecht a more respected and beloved rivalry than Big Boss/The Boss? I don’t think it is. The entirety of MGS3 revolves around this rivalry, and while it’s weaker than FFX, it’s more than popular enough as a whole for people to know and love this rivalry. Then add in the fact that Big Boss is easily the most popular entity in this match, and it feels like a done deal. I love both of these pairings, and I was hoping this would finally be the time Tidus goes far in a contest. Against a lot of other 7 seeds, I’d pick Tidus/Jecht, but not this one. I think Big Boss/The Boss have a legit shot at beating Samus/Ridley down the line because I think this will be one of the most respected rivalries in the contest, and it will benefit greatly from it. I’d love to be wrong and see Tidus/Jecht score an upset here, even at the expense of my bracket going down in flames, but I’ve purposely refused to let my heart talk my head into picking them here. Oh well. Leonhart’s Prediction: Big Boss vs. The Boss with 62.50% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Here's the big one. When I made my bracket I figured the Bosses would have this match fairly easily, but after thinking about now I feel like I was definitely selling Tidus and Jecht short. This is a match that I really do think will come down to how the voters view the rivalries. And on this site, at this point in time, I feel like the Final Fantasy team is going to get more respect in that regard. So I'm gonna go against my bracket here and see what happens. What an informative writeup. Kleenex's Prediction: Tidus vs. Jecht with 52.11% Applekidjosh’s Analysis Ugh personally I don't get and have never understood the Metal Gear Solid hype. I tried 1 and 2 and didn't care for them. I mean I've accepted that it's incredibly beloved by so many people, and I totally respect the things Snake has done in previous contests, but I don't really "get it." Y'know? Especially since they're going up against probably my favorite Final Fantasy rivalry ever. I'm not crazy enough to actually take the upset here like certain The Show guests, but I really wish things would go differently. Anyway these Bosses both have "Boss" in their name so I take it they're some kind of team or something. Maybe one was a woman? I seem to recall that. Probably some sexual tension there. I don't know. Maybe I feel like the more I type, the better chance Tidus and his pop have in the match? Maybe if I type out some long winded analysis? At least I can call a close match even though I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't that close. As I said in the beginning: Ugh AKJ predix Big Boss and the other Boss with 53.00% Dante’s Analysis Man, I have absolutely no idea. If you asked me who I had in my bracket, I legit wouldn’t be able to tell you. I have no analysis to offer here, I just have blind faith in the metal gear solid series. Winner - Big Boss/The Boss – 52.47% |
Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534 This match has been debated, and quite a few people think Tidus/Jecht have a real chance. In terms of the strength of the individual characters, Big Boss, when represented by a Naked Snake picture, is capable of near-elite level performances - see his 37% on Mario from 2010. Tidus and Jecht were probably about the same strength in 2010 - Jecht lost narrowly to Sub-Zero in the vote-ins, while Tidus lost narrowly to Sub-Zero in the contest. That strength amounts to about 40% on an unimpressive Zelda, which is clearly a step below Big Boss. The Boss is weak, but not horrible - through the WCC she's projected to get in the low 30s against Luigi. Individual strengths are not the deciding factor, as we've seen, but it's worth keeping them in mind. Here I think they put Big Boss/The Boss slightly ahead. We do have something of a read on Big Boss/The Boss from the vote-ins, where they dominated their poll, taking 22% of the vote. I'm not sure anything from it has proven to be worth much yet though - Falcon/Shadow got destroyed by X/Zero and while the Catherines did slightly better than expected against Sonic/Robotnik, I expect the Sonic duo are a step below the other big guns. Taking a rough reading from the Bosses near-doubling of them, they'd struggle to get 40% on Sonic/Robotnik. While it doesn't pay to be too hung up on the vote-in polls, I do think they suggest the Bosses aren't of elite strength. There are a couple of other factors pointing towards the Bosses taking this match, however. While both of these pairs should benefit from rivalry factor, I expect Big Boss/The Boss to have the better of it. They dominate their game from the beginning to the (superb) finale. Tidus/Jecht have a solid relationship, but it doesn't have the same presence in FFX as the Bosses' does in MGS3. And of course, getting FFX in a day match is a boon. I think weighing these together with Big Boss' strength, I'll pick the Bosses to win in the closest match so far. I have to say though, the more I analyse this, the more I think Tidus/Jecht have a genuine shot. Big Boss vs. The Boss with 53.89% Crew Consensus: Everyone except Lopen and Kleenex is going with the seeding upset. |
got this --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
From: Lopen | #423 Ah I see now. |
I'll be surprised if Tidus can keep it close here. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
damn you brackets --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
dat ffx board vote that's twice now! you jerks --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
this match is gross --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
for the record I at least voted for Tidus/Jecht, against my bracket and my predix --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
lolol Kleenex --- I worship Utli's Penis - LtM |
the match was never in doubt to me but I did not expect a 60-40 lmao --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
I'm the biggest Tidus fanboy on Board 8, and I knew he had no chance here. Thanks for the free points, guys! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
(1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (8) Arthas/Illidan Much has been said... but now it is time to act. Wait a minute. It's Link, in a round one night match, against something from Warcraft? That sounds familiar. Oh, of course, last time he was held to 79.8% by Thrall. Looking at Thrall's and Arthas' contest histories would suggest that Arthas is, if anything, stronger than Thrall. But as we've seen, rivalries matter. I have nothing to contribute about Illidan, as I have no idea who or what he is. Link, as we've seen, is capable of brutalising Ganondorf when up against him, which suggests to me that Link will not be given a substantial boost from his rivalry. Arthas/Illidan had to make it here through a vote-in, where they beat Falcon/Shadow and lost to the Catherines. They're weak, but still capable of avoiding the biggest beating of the tournament so far, especially during a night match. Last contest Link didn't do anything incredible during the night against non-Nintendo, and I don't think that will change because his rivalry with Ganondorf is in play. If he can do better than X/Zero managed against Falcon/Shadow, despite his opponent being stronger, and despite a time disadvantage, that'll be a fine start. Link/Ganondorf with 81.6% of the vote. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
And
again, as a huge fan of both FFX and MGS3, you people are smokin'
somethin' terrible if you thought Tidus/Jecht would be the more
"respected" rivalry of the two. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
no u --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Man, not even close. Weak. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
who keeps letting Lopen in year after year of terrible upset picks --- It will launch for $350 with some Wii Sports s***. I bet my life on it. Damn, that KoolAid guy is awesome - NGamer64 |
No one can light the audience up like I do. Picking terrible upset picks and maintaining a shred of credibility is a fine art! Not that an infidel like you would understand. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Hey hey, THAT'S what I'm talking about! *high fives Leon all the way to the bank* --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
if Lopen were removed from the crew I might just stop reading it forever --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
LeonhartFour posted... also hey guys Kid/Guy vs. Vyse/Galcian who you got upset city ahead am I right By which you mean that the 8-seed would actually beat the 5-seed there? Yeah. Even without looking at the percentages, I would've gone with the Kid/the Guy, possibly just on favoritism but also because in an all-fodder match, even the smallest edge could be huge, and Kid/Guy is at least funny and wins that one on joke trends. But I wouldn't have predicted that Kid/Guy would be able to win against Dan/Sagat, even though the percentages we've seen would suggest that they can. Dan and Sagat got 20.78% against Chris Redfield and Albert Wesker, only slightly better than the 19.36% that the Kid and the Guy got against Samus Aran and Ridley. Now, everyone seems to think that Ridley is fodder and will be a weight to Samus, probably in large part because he entered the contest with a career record of 0-3. Well, pay more attention. Yes, Ridley lost in round 1 of Villains 2005 to Diablo, which in retrospect was a bad loss, but he still finished 10th in the X-Stats--Wesker finished 24th. In 2007, Ridley came third in his opening fourpack, behind Leon Kennedy and Vivi Ornitier. Decent enough competition. And then in 2010, he got stuck with a 16-seed and ran into Cloud Strife in the very first round. Hey, remember who the 8-seed in the Midgar Division was? Chris Redfield. And Ridley outperformed Chris, though not by much--Ridley got 28.28% of the vote against Cloud; Chris got 28.01%. So Ridley, the weaker character in his pairing by quite a bit, is more or less equal to Chris, the stronger character in his--I'd put them both as low midcarders. And Dan and Sagat only managed an extra 1.42% against a low midcarder and a fodder over what the Kid and the Guy got against a low midcarder and a Noble Niner. ...I'm not buying it. I think that while my percentage expectation was lower than what actually happened, my theory about their trends was correct. The IWBTG duo would probably get 17-21% against nearly any competition, but would be unable to challenge in a match against all but the weakest fodder, similar to when CATS nearly managed to beat Ansem. Because their opponent just happened to be one of the strongest entrants in the bracket, they'll probably have a higher X-Stat rating than they would have if, say, they had managed to do a bit better in the vote-ins and got a 2-7 matchup against Tidus/Jecht or even Sora/Riku. --- mnkboy: I think they've put on their "scare new users away" pants. Haguile: Wouldn't it be easier to scare new users if they weren't wearing pants? |
Damn straight, lefty. I'm the ratings drawing glue that holds this crew together...! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
You're no AKJ, and you never will be --- I worship Utli's Penis - LtM |
And we're all thankful for that --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
