GameFAQs Contests
Rivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew
(1) Mega Man X/Zero vs. (8) Captain Falcon/Black Shadow Well, if there was ever a litmus test for how much, if any, effect the rivalries will have, this is it. On the one hand we have the classic X/Zero duo, and on the other we have a Smash character with a companion from a game that got doubled by Dragon Age. When avoiding SFF, Captain Falcon is no weakling - he pummeled Wander and beat Riku, before breaking 30% on Cloud (of questionable significance, given Ridley got within 2% of this, but an achievement all the same) - but Black Shadow contributes nothing. If this was "Mega Man X vs. Captain Falcon", I'd say it was a tall order for him to outdo Cloud - he did let Captain John Price post 34% last time round. But Zero will contribute as much as any second runner, and Katherine/Catherine beat Falcon/Shadow in the vote-ins (I'd expect X/Zero to beat Sonic/Robotnik), so I'd give X/Zero a good chance of chasing down Sonic's percentage today. Yet this match is at night, where Mega Man is notoriously weak, and Captain Falcon has substantial vote pull via design and Smash. I hope and expect X/Zero will make their spread (70%), but I can't shake a nagging doubt... Mega Man X vs. Zero with 71.4% of the vote. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Northeast Division: Round 1 - Match 5 – (1) X/Zero vs. (8) Captain Falcon/Shadow Moltar’s Analysis X/Zero The Guru pick ends up getting a nice 1-seed Falcon/Shadow So where’s my F-Zero Wii game? X and Zero are two very solid competitors in these contests, and they have a good rivalry to boot. They also have a very predictable path, but whatever. Falcon wouldn’t beat X or Zero 1v1, and Black Shadow is pretty much a non-factor. Still, X-Zero aren’t going to kill the F-Zero team since 2010 indicates that Falcon is actually a midcarder. 75% is asking too much, but ~70% would be a really good showing, so I’ll predict something a bit lower (because lol megaman). Moltar’s Bracket: X/Zero Moltar’s Prediction: X/Zero - 67% Lopen’s Analysis Yo so Falcon opens this match with the VINTAGE “show me your moves” and X and Zero are all like, sitting there for literally 3 hours swapping weapons and shooting things doing street fighter crap and dashes you know the works. Falcon's jaw drops and he is defeated at this point. Shadow the Hedgehog is also there as Falcon's rival, I guess the logic being that everyone hates Shadow the Hedgehog? Makes some sense. But yeah despite Falcon's decent showings in recent contests this match shouldn't be close. Also I think this will be our first true test of whether RIVALRY FACTOR truly exists. My money is on yes, as X vs Zero draws the huge numbers. Lopen's prediction: X vs Zero with 80.02% Leon’s Analysis This match is pretty straight forward. Mega Man X and Zero are both much stronger than Captain Falcon, and Black Shadow is going to be much weaker than the good Captain. Throw in the fact that this is a night match, which means that Falcon can’t take advantage of the Smash Bros. contingent (from whom Black Shadow will draw nothing, to make things even worse), and this match gets a little bit uglier. Not much more to say about this one. I do want to say that Black Turtle made a great choice picking Mega Man X/Zero for the Guru choice, although I do wish they would’ve been put in a position to get a debatable match along the way. This bracket is full of wasted potential, which is a shame. MMX/Zero could be the strongest rivalry that doesn’t contain a member of the Noble Nine, and it could have had a shot at beating at least one of them. Now we’ll never get to see it. Oh well. Leonhart’s Prediction: Mega Man X vs. Zero with 65.90% Kleenex’s Analysis ya go my guru nom. Yeah I dunno what to say about this match. X and Zero win obviously. I don't have quite the same healthy respect for this pairing that most people seem to, but I also don't have much respect for Captain Falcon either. It makes pinpointing a percentage particularly perplexing. Perhaps I'll ponder the previous pairings of the participants prior to posting a prediction. what Kleenex's Prediction: X vs. Zero with 65.85% |
Applekidjosh’s Analysis This is a great fight full of likeable people for the first time this contest. I'm a little confused how a Sonic the Hedgehog character ended up as Captain Falcon's rival but I'll just attribute it to Smash Brothers and move on. One of the things I've always found interesting in Gamefaqs contests is X's place. Theoretically he should be equal to or greater than Mega Man, since he pretty much IS just a cooler version of him. It doesn't seem to work like that, so I don't really get it. Of course this isn't the first time Gamefaqs voters have completely perplexed me, and I've long since given up on trying to fully understand it. To me, this match comes down to Captain Falcon being a weak "character" even if people like him. Both X and Zero would destroy him 1v1 (I mean this in a contest sense, but feel free to take it as advice for the next Smash Bros, NintendO!). Shadow is a non-factor. It won't be close. I'm personally a big X fan so I'm gonna go high on this one. AKJ predix X vs Zero with 77.77% Dante’s Analysis Okay, I’ll be honest here: I have only played one MMX game, and I’ve never played an F-Zero game. My knowledge of Zero comes exclusively from having owned the guy in mercs, and Falcon solely from smash bros. That said, I think X/Zero will take this handily – people seem to be fond of their rivalry! You can’t really take the fact they have a 1 seed as gospel, though – the guru nom power is powerful indeed, and probably boosted them up quite bit. Of course, Falcon didn’t impress in the voteins and I can’t remember offhand him doing well in previous contests. Too lazy to check though, so HERE GOES W ILD PERCENTAGE Winner - X/Zero – 70.01% Guest’s Analysis - Black Turtle Mega Man X vs. Zero Great guru nomination? Or greatest guru nomination? Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow Falcon LOSE! Analysis Ah yes the culmination of my guru victory. A bit disappointed to have my choice wasted on this turd of a contest, but at least I get to see X/Zero stomp some competition before they get fed to Mario. Would have been nice to see them go up against one of the weaker NNers, especially since we've already seen Mario/X, but beggers can't be choosers. This match isn't in question at all, but it will be a good barometer as to how a team of 2 strong characters fares against a team with 1 good character and 1 weaker one. As for percentages, Crono put up 69 percent on Falcon in 2006, so when you consider the boost X will get from Zero, this should end over 70 percent. BT's Prediction: X/Zero with 71.56% BT's Bracket: X/Zero BT's Vote: X/Zero Crew Consensus: X vs. Zero wins, but the percentage could be just about anything. |
Prediction: Leonhart and Kleenex battle to the wire for the accuracy point --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
I kinda doubt considered it's gonna be a cool tripling. |
Shootin higher than X and Zero fanboy and the dude who is responsible for them getting in. Y'all gonna be lookin silly --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Correction, turns out I got Crono and Cloud's performances on Falcon messed up. What was the explanation for that Cloud/Falcon match? --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #157 Falcon's stronger now than he used to be, and FFVII anti-voting is more effective when the match is only 12 hours because Cloud doesn't get as long to counteract it. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Mega Man X vs Captain Falcon You're not going to find a bigger Falcon believer than myself*, and not even I can muster up much care for this match. If X isn't at Noble Nine strength he's certainly not too far back, based on everything we've seen the past three years, so naturally he's going to roll through Falcon no matter who you pair him with. Spread Betting doesn't appear to provide much of a conversation starter either- the line's at 70%, and considering Falcon held Cloud to the 60s just last year, surely he can do the same against X. Right? Not so fast! This "Shadow" person is awful, probably one of the weakest entrants in Contest history actually, and furthermore he does nothing for Falcon in terms of rivalry synergy. Meanwhile Zero's easily one of the best few #2s in the whole bracket, turns the team into a fantastic SmartVoterFAQs option, and makes for some of the coolest match pics around (today is no exception). They're going to perform closer to Cloud's mark than you would think here at the start of what should be a long and successful run through this bracket. The Good Captain's saving grace: Europe still haaaaates this series. [see: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3993®ion=EUR ] That should allow Falcon to hold them to the 60s overnight, though just barely. Mega Man X - 69.39% * I was one of only a handful who backed the Falcon > Riku upset last year with my pick of... wait a minute, Riku with 50.63%? Ngamer, you lousy coward! --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
From: Ngamer64 | #159 I'm not sure Black Shadow would be bottom 5 for this contest! --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
I see Captain Falcon's strength increase between 2006 and 2010 as pretty clearly tied to memes and internet jokes. Especially this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFtw7qW7Vcw --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
All hail Lopen overlord |
Lopen continuing to carry our Oracle team --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Holy
wow at this start! Still say MM loses a bunch to Europe later on, but I
think we have our answer regarding "Rivalries Matter"! --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
From: Ngamer64 | #164 Holy wow at this start! Still say MM loses a bunch to Europe later on, but I think we have our answer regarding "Rivalries Matter"! I think you personify confirmation bias! --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
2nd greatest guru nom imo --- http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png Fire Todd Haley |
Man. I can't believe I let you guys intimidate my Oracle down a few percent. Also "rivalries matter" I said this before the match started as my rationale for putting X and Zero so high. Confirmation bias not here. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Although actually given the way Mega Man tends to be frontloaded the Oracle might not actually matter. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik 73.12% 29020 Katherine vs. Catherine 26.88% 10667 TOTAL VOTES 39687 Crew Predictions - 4/4 What Happened: The Catherine pair don't get crushed by Sonic/Robotnik Why it Happened: Sonic/Robotnik isn't exactly the strongest pairing, and as we saw in the vote-ins, C/Katherine weren't super fodder or anything. What will Happen: This isn't the performance Sonic needed to make him seem like a threat against Mario. Crew Prediction Challenge - Look at how great we are Moltar - 4 Lopen - 4 Leon - 4 Kleenex - 4 AKJ - 4 Dante - 4 Guest - 4 Crew Accuracy Challenge - AKJ gets the point for Sonic/Robotnik AKJ - 1 Dante - 1 Moltar - 1 Lopen - 1 Leon - 0 Kleenex - 0 Guest - 0 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: X/Zero (4/4) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
AKJ > Kleenex count: 1 --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Guybrush vs Bartz Alright, got to admit, I don't know JACK about Bartz. Two things I do know, however: we're pretty darn lucky these first round matches only cost us 12 hours a piece, and Guybrush is pretty darn unlucky that he drew a day match. I've always hated this character and his series with a passion for being awful fodder that somehow takes up a spot in every single bracket, but a couple years ago I realized that Monkey Island actually DOES serve a purpose here on GameFAQs. Check out its percentages from the match with Sonic, Mario, and Street Fighter: Europe - 18% Australia - 15% North America - NOT EVEN 6% So there you have it, the most night-oriented series in history going up against Final Fantasy in broad daylight! I sure hope no one here penciled this in as a "who cares versus who cares" tossup and decided to try for the upset, because I'm afraid you'll be sorely disappointed. Bartz - 59.21% --- thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle! |
wow. I'd say Mario has competition if I didn't know better. this is just as good as his performance. --- xyzzy |
(5) Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh vs. (4) Guybrush Threepwood/LeChuck This will be the highest percentage Guybrush has ever achieved in a poll, right here. He only needs 28.57% to better his performance against Ryo Hazuki back in 2002! The question is how well Bartz and Gilgamesh will do. There's no way of knowing where they are, but FFV is certainly more known and liked than the Secret of Monkey Island series on GameFAQs. Bartz has been in Dissidia (and Gilgamesh was in the second game), and if that lended a hand to some other old FF characters in the last contest, I don't see any reason why it shouldn't to Bartz. Guybrush did get to 22% against Vincent, probably helped by his re-releases recently, but I still don't see Guybrush doing anything of note here, especially in the day. I expect a cruise around the 60/40 mark for Bartz/Gilgamesh, with the possibility of going higher if FF recognisibility pulls in a lot of the voters who don't know who Guybrush is. Regardless of what happens, this match should easily make the record books for "lowest votals in a 12 hour day match" ever. Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh with 60.34% of the vote. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
I'm suddenly really worried about Guybrush winning here. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
From: transcience | #174 I sure hope most of the rest of the crew is having the same feeling right now --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
just don't crew curse this and we'll be alright --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
I
know Guybrush is ass in these contests, but who gives a crap about
Bartz? Hell, hasn't he changed names from one release to another (Bartz
or Butz, who knows?), so some people may not even know it's the main
character of FFV, an undeniably weak game to begin with. I still take Bartz to win here, but I think it will be much closer than the board expects. --- http://images.wikia.com/finalfantasy/images/0/0e/Ffx-bahamut.jpg Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest. |
on top of that, there is absolutely no relation between him and Gilgamesh. it'd be like having Terra and Ultros. anyway, more important things. I think this is the first truly impressive win for Mega Man since Yoshi in 2005. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Tomorrow's match hinges on how strong Gilgamesh actually is. And to dredge up an older argument, would X beat Mega Man head to head? --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Northeast Division: Round 1 - Match 6 – (4) Guybrush/LeChuck vs. (5) Bartz/Gilgamesh Moltar’s Analysis Guybrush/LeChuck wonder who’s going to end up crushing guybrush this year Bartz/Gilgamesh ...who god this match is gross. I’d be shocked if it cracked 30 total votes (not 30K, 30 period). Guybrush is total fodder that always does well in nominations, and lucky for him, he gets his weakest opponent yet. As bad as Bartz is (just look at how he compares to other FF heroes in those polls), at least he has the Final Fantasy name attached. He also has Gilgamesh attached to him here as well, and that’s also a very cool name that will benefit him. Bartz/Gilgamesh win I guess. I don’t see why anyone would have faith in Guybrush to ever win anything. Moltar’s Bracket: Bartz/Gilgamesh Moltar’s Prediction: Bartz/Gilgamesh - 58% Lopen’s Analysis Gilgamesh pretty much does the work himself here, leaving Bartz to go frolic with chocobos or something. Though really, Bartz could probably do the work himself too. Guybrush is that weak. Kleenex hypes Gilgamesh to beat X and Zero in the same night after he lays the smack down here but come on let's not do that. Lopen's prediction: Almighty Gilgamesh with 70.33% Leon’s Analysis This match. This match. What do you even say about this thing? We know that Guybrush has consistently been one of the weakest entrants who’s been in multiple contests, and the sad thing is that LeChuck will be even worse. Final Fantasy V would probably be near the bottom of the FF hierarchy in terms of contest strength. I would honestly only rank it ahead of FFII and FFIII, and probably FFXI and FFXIV if you want to count those. That being said, being from Final Fantasy is usually better than not being from Final Fantasy. The only real advantage Guybrush/LeChuck has here is being the higher seed, so they would have to rely on bracket voting to win this one, I think. Gilgamesh at least could pull some popularity from making appearances in more popular FF games, and he and Bartz have both been in Dissidia. Either way, this might be the weakest overall match in the contest in terms of the strengths of all the characters involved, so who knows what might happen. I expect Bartz/Gilgamesh to win fairly easily, but fodder/fodder matches can be weird sometimes. Leonhart’s Prediction: Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh with 62.25% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Yes. Finally. Okay, sure it's not the ideal setup, but I've been trying to get Gilgamesh into a contest for years and years. It shows how shallow the rivalry pool is when he can get into this with a 5th seed, but ended up getting snubbed in two 128 character contests. But who cares, this is a time for celebration! Truth be told, I'm actually somewhat worried about this match. Guybrush is not strong. Dude's never won a match, and he's never resembled anything close to strong. He's fodder through and through. Make no mistake though, Bartz is fodder too. The entire match really revolves around how strong Gilgamesh ends up being (or the fact that they're from a Final Fantasy game...WHATEVER). If this were a night match I would definitely be a lot more worried seeing as those crazy Europeans actually care about Monkey Island. As is, this should be a (hopefully comfortable) for the guys whose game people on the site have actually played. Kleenex's Prediction: Bartz/Gilgamesh with 56.41% Applekidjosh’s Analysis lmao this match. All 35 of Guybrush's fans are going to show up today, but unfortunately about 75 people in the world still care about Final Fantasy 5 so... (literally the only good thing about this match is going to be watching Kleenex's multiple orgasms as the percents rise) AKJ predix Butz vs Gilgamesh with 61.11% Dante’s Analysis Hey, its everyones favorite contest participant Guybrush! Oh wait, did I say everyone? I mean the people who keep nominating this loser. Dude jobs more often than zack ryder pre-crisis. I don’t even anticipate Bartz/Gilgamesh being strong and I can’t justify having them lose. This match will probably end up decently close, because its “pre 7 final fantasy”. Not a whole lot else to say here, unless I start busting into bad guybrush like puns. And I think it’s better for all of us if I avoid that, really! Winner - Bartz/Gilgamesh – 59.99% Guest’s Analysis - Mr3790 Finally, we got Gilgamesh in one of these things! He even gets a winnable match against our favorite piece of turbo fodder Guybrush. Bartz/Gilgamesh has this one easily, considering they got the weakest possible opponent in LOL Guybrush. Bartz vs Gilgamesh: 60% Crew Consensus: Sweep for Bartz vs. Gilgamesh |
This wasn't from a contest, but X and Classic dominated the poll and X won reasonably easily (from 2008): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3156 Back to Bartz/Guybrush. Old FF characters looked good last contest, probably because of Dissidia - Cecil's 48% on Knuckles and Terra holding Squall under a doubling being two good examples. Sure, FFV is weaker than IV and VI, and Bartz and Gilgamesh are inevitably going to be weaker than the best FFIV and VI characters, but I still can't see them failing to brush aside Guybrush. I think 60% might be asking for a bit much though - I'll tweak my oracle down a point or two. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
reminder: Guybrush has never broken 30% --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Gilgamesh a beast --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
this'll probably end in the 50s --- xyzzy |
From: Ultimaphazon | #177 Nah, he's always been Bartz in all official English translations. Butz comes from the fan translations, since that's what his name is in Japanese. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
oh hey I might get this one --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
From: AppIekidjosh | #187 Ahem --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Crew
is off to a great start here. Doubt this run lasts past tonight,
though, because I can't see a unanimous winner for DK/Ezio. --- Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
I'm sure we'll all pick Ezio, resulting in a DK victory --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
Ezio wins in a 13th hour rally Calling it now --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
oh god not 13th hour --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
....right, there are 13 hours --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less Italics due to bold |
why isnt bacon closing the poll! --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
From: LeonhartFour | #188 well I did say "might" just wait til the... yeah who am I kidding --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/applekidjosh <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
(3) Donkey Kong/King K. Rool vs. (6) Ezio/Rodrigo And so we come to the first genuinely debated match in the contest, and about time. Assassin's Creed's one of a small number of series this gen that have had any impact in our contests, and Ezio has a good claim to have improved since the last character battle since Brotherhood has been released and Revelations is being hyped right now. Yet, I think people are underestimating the effect of Donkey Kong Country Returns, which I expect will have a bigger effect because Donkey Kong has had nothing for a long period of time. A night match would normally hurt Nintendo but DK is weirdly night oriented, so I the time won't help Ezio, and the 13th hour might hurt him. Rodrigo is about as worthless as Black Shadow while K. Rool has, I expect, a little nostalgia value for some voters. I know Donkey Kong has not earned his infamous reputation as perhaps the greatest choke artist for nothing and there's a not insignificant chance he'll add another to his resume here, but I feel strangely confident he'll come through here. Donkey Kong/King K. Rool with 53% of the vote. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Northeast Division: Round 1 - Match 7 – (3) Donkey Kong/King K. Rool vs. (6) Ezio/Rodrigo Moltar’s Analysis DK/K. Rool Thank you, I’ll take another Nintendo pair over that mess from yesterday Ezio/Rodrigo I didn’t know Rodri316 hated Ezio that much So I have Ezio/Rodrigo in my bracket because it seemed like a good idea at the time. Not feeling so hot about that anymore. Nintendo has been doing great this contest, especially when you look at stuff like the Kirby/Jill match. The X/Zero match also showed that the rivalries do matter somewhat, as there’s no way X or Zero would do 80% on Falcon individually. Plus, the lower vote totals are benefitting older Nintendo/Square pairs more than newer non-Nintendo/Square pairs. This is presumably because the ~30000 people voting in these matches are mostly long-time members that have always been pro-Nintendo/Square. Now, Ezio and Rodrigo still have a good chance of winning. Ezio seems to be about as strong as, if not stronger than DK, and has Brotherhood and Revelations hype, (though DK has DKC:R). Night match...actually seems to help DK more here since he’s always been an odd night vote character, while Assassin’s Creed shines in the day. Rodrigo is pretty much dead weight while K. Rool is well-known, which could play a big factor here if that X/Zero match is any indication. Hmm, I’m actually feeling more confident in DK now. He does love to choke though, so I doubt this will be that easy of a win for him. Moltar’s Bracket: Ezio/Rodrigo Moltar’s Prediction: DK/K. Rool - 52% Lopen’s Analysis This match is the first debatable match in the bracket. I think it's this will help answer the question that's been coming up lately of whether GameFAQs is stuck in the past or not. Assassin's Creed vs a franchise that hasn't been relevant since the 90s. Bracket makers are, apparently, as Kong vs K. Rool is the big favorite here I believe. I don't really get it. Ezio vs Rodrigo is from one of the most prolific new series of this generation, and while I don't think it gets a huge boost from RIVALRY FACTOR, it's not like DK vs K. Rool is really anything special either. It's just not iconic beyond “hero vs the final boss,” despite what DKC fans might want you to think. We might as well nominate Toad vs Wart while we're at it (actually that nomination would've kicked ass) Anyway, to me, this match is going to boil down to Ezio vs Donkey Kong, and you know what they say about Donkey Kong in close matches-- when in doubt, assume a choke. Ezio should win this. I'd be a bit more confident if this were a day match, but eh. Kill that damn ape. Oh and uh, something of interest-- we've sorta got an indirect measure on how this match goes anyway: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3744 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3801 If anything, AC has gained popularity since then. Really not seeing why DK vs K. Rool is the favorite. But fear not, loyal readers, you may still repent and change your Oracle prediction at least! Save some dignity! Lopen's prediction: Ezio vs Rodrigo with 54.07% Leon’s Analysis This is probably the first really debated match of the contest. If you just look at the match at face value, you would naturally assume that Ezio is the strongest character in the match, but it’s probably closer than some would think. However, take a look at these matches: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3744 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3801 |
Yes,
I know Altair and Ezio are not going to be equals, but I’m just saying
that Ezio isn’t leagues ahead of DK here. Ezio didn’t exactly light it
up in his contest debut either, struggling to get 60% on Simon Belmont
and doing worse against Zelda than Jecht (However much you want to blame
that on FFXIII launching on the day of Zelda/Jecht is up to you, but I
don’t think it’s significant). Now there are probably some of you who may think that this being a night match is also a point in Ezio’s favor, but to that I say…Not so fast, my friends! (</Corso>) While we don’t have any actual night match data on Ezio himself, Altair is actually strongest during the day, which isn’t all that surprising considering most of AC’s popularity comes from the west. Plus, DK isn’t as bad during the night as most Nintendo characters anyway. He’s fairly balanced. So what’s the deciding factor in this match? It might come down to the rivals DK and Ezio carry with them. If DK/K. Rool get a good, nostalgia-inducing DKC picture, that would be good news for them. Ezio/Rodrigo is not a very good rivalry, and Rodrigo would almost certainly be weaker than K. Rool. I won’t spoil the details of AC2 for those who’ve never played it, but you don’t see or interact with Rodrigo very much throughout the course of the game. You literally don’t even know what his name is until the end of the game. So if DK can get any sort of “rivalry benefit” in this match, it may help him. I feel like DK would probably be a much heavier favorite if not for his reputation as a choker in close matches. I suppose you do have to worry about that, but I think he’ll have enough cushion to be okay. Leonhart’s Prediction: Donkey Kong vs. K. Rool with 53.15% Kleenex’s Analysis RODRIGO. Why are we calling him that. Everyone who played the games knows him as just Borgia. Also this is a terrible rivalry. On the other side is perennial choker Donkey Kong. I have to wonder how strong Ezio really is these days. Brotherhood probably helped since we last saw him in a contest, and I doubt anyone cares too much about K. Rool. Donkey Kong should be the favorite here - he's certainly the more iconic character, and Nintendo has been doing pretty well for itself so far this contest. And yet, I cannot, in good conscience, place my faith in the monkey. He generally doesn't follow typical Nintendo trends (this may be good for him seeing as it's a night match), but he always seems to find a way to put up a sub-par performance. Ezio is cooler, more relevant, and has the pope on his side. DK sucks. Kleenex's Prediction: Ezio vs. Rodrigo with 53.98% Applekidjosh’s Analysis Now HERE'S a match, finally! This is pretty cool, Donkey Kong doesn't exactly scream "Strength" in the contests but by virtue of going against K. Rool everyone will think back to their fond DKC memories. I'm totally guilty of this - make it DK Classic, or DK64, or any of DK's cameos, and it's a big "who cares." Meanwhile I seem to recall people being disappointed with Assassin's Creed's previous performance. I haven't played any of them but it seems like the kind of thing my students would love. This battle is the young vs the old! Who cares enough to actually vote?!? (according to that interest poll before the contest, only the most hardcore people!) I'm going with the old people!! AKJ predix Donkey Kong vs King K Rool with 52.25% |
Dante’s Analysis Okay, if such a thing as “Rivalry Factor” exists, DK/Rool will be the one to benefit here – Rodrigo really only exists to give Ezio a reason to stab people. On the other hand, Historical Figure factor will go to Rodrigo! DK is a classic Nintendo icon. Dude has a ton of games, and a recent release on the wii too. Ezio is far more recent, and stabs people like a boss. DK has a huge minus going for him though – no one actually likes him. Dude even got snubbed halfway through the Mario party series. Everyone thinks people like DK, but time and time again it shows he gets early support then drops it all at once. I’d take Ezio without a doubt if this were 24 hours, but it makes me nervous with this only being half the day. However, I’ve gotta TAKE THE UPSET Winner - Ezio/Rodrigo – 53.69% Guest’s Analysis - Luis This is one of the few truly debatable round 1 matches, the first of the contest so far, which all in all is quite disappointing really. It at least involves DK however, who can usually be relied upon to keep things interesting. Taking a look at this match, a lot of factors are actually in the big ape's favour here. Oddly for a Nintendo character, DK has night trends, and in a 12 hour (or rather 13 as it happens) match, the large part of the day where he struggles will not be an issue. It's also fair to say that K.Rool will offer more to the team than Ezio's nemesis. Speaking of which, although DK is well known for his trials and tribulations in contests, Ezio never really set the world on fire in his only contest to date either. With the Assassin's Creed 2 saga recently coming to end however, the only way is up in terms of strength. I see this ending in DK's favour. I probably wouldn't take him in the day, or even a 24 hour match, but for once in his life, it just might be the case that the stars are in alignment to allow him to catch a break. I don't buy into the rivalry factor of this contest, I still think matches will come down to whoever contains the stronger character; but even for proponents of that theory, DK has Ezio beat there too. It won't be a clean win, but a win nonetheless. DK/K.Rool with 52.8% Crew Consensus: It’s a split! DK vs K. Rool is the slight favorite for the Crew. |
