GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 8
Wow, Samus is an overwhelming favorite in the US ( 39 states support her). Stupid Europe. By the way, Samus is getting *rocked* in Asia. She is not even putting up 20% there. --- Maybe PICS NAO later, WTF do you think this is, Neopets or something! No ****ing maybe no ****ing later, PICS NAO or DAIIIIII!! -- LeighDaMan |
We Europeans have good taste.But it seems Asians have even better. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Quarterfinals: Round 5 - Match 124 – (1) Solid Snake vs. (1) Sephiroth Moltar’s Analysis Snake Round 1 - 72.35% vs. Proto Man Round 2 - 67.03% vs. Fox Round 3 - 55.20% vs. Pikachu Round 4 - 59.17% vs. Squall As the Snake prepares to strike… Sephiroth Round 1 - 71.80% vs. Marth Round 2 - 62.66% vs. Vincent Round 3 - 52.88% vs. Missingno Round 4 - 56.16% vs. Tifa The dormant Seph leaves himself open. It happened in 2006: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2564 It happened in 2008: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3305 Will it happen once more? Can Snake beat Seph for the third time? This time, there’s no Cloud. It’s going to be a 1 on 1 straight up clean fight. Pre-contest, this upset was talked about, especially after Snake came off his hot 2008 run. Sephiroth disappointed big time, so a few people were all over this. And then the Contest began. 72% on Proto Man looked alright, but it wasn’t the beast performance 2008 Snake would have done. 72% on Marth also looked good after Cloud “stunk it up” against Ridley. Then you move on to Round 2, and Snake pulls out the doubling on Fox. Again, another solid performance from Snake. Move on to Seph and…yeah, not so good. We blamed Seph’s inability to SFF FF characters, but was that really the case? Move on to the Sprite Round, and then you see Pikachu get 45% on Snake. Now, we’ve seen Snake underperform in the Sprite Round many times in the past, and we’ve seen what Pikachu can do with his sprite. Therefore, people weren’t shocked by the result. However, it was confirmation that Snake was not the 2008 beast many had hoped to see. At the rate Seph was going though, he wouldn’t need to be! Sephiroth did manage to end Missingno, but only the lack of rallying in the deep night vote saved him. Then Round 4 comes along, and the hope and believe revived. Snake put up great numbers on Squall, while Sephiroth completely embarrassed himself against Tifa. That confirmed it. This is Snake’s chance. Look at what we’ve been seeing so far. Cloud and Seph aren’t beasting at all. The non-Link favorites aren’t dominating while the underdog overperforms. Even Cloud needed the deep night vote to pull away from Cloud. Sephy isn’t going to have that today, and the masses are hungry for an upset. Snake is no Charizard. He hasn’t won matches he was supposed to lose. However, Tifa wasn’t an underdog either. In fact, she had been looking pretty bad the entire contest! And then she goes and easily outdoes Vincent on Seph. Samus wasn’t on a bandwagon either, and she was competitive with Cloud for 3 hours! Snake has a real shot here. In fact, by this point, he should be considered the favorite. After everything we’ve seen so far, it’s looking like the people want FF7 to lose and will get behind Snake to make it happen. The gap between Snake and Seph is much easier to make up than the gap between Seph/Missingno or Samus/Cloud. It’s not going to take that large of a push for Snake to win. However, I’m going to pick Sephiroth here. No matter how much rallying is done, FF7 hasn’t lost yet, and that’s the key point. The biggest difference in this match is that we’ve got a day match here. That helps Sephiroth slightly more than Snake, who’s pretty bad in the day traditionally. Look at how Cloud killed Ryu during the day. Plus, Missingno was extremely impressive leading up to his match with Seph. Samus was extremely impressive leading up to her match with Cloud. Snake? Not so much…some good wins over Fox and Squall and that’s it. Snake is really going to have to hit hard today if he wants to win. If this is close at the end, I wouldn’t be surprised if Snake powers his way to victory, but he’ll have to stave off the ASV first. |
The
upset can happen. Vincent made the first crack, Missingno caused the
leak, Tifa worsened the damage, and Samus gave her support to Snake,
who can break the entire wall down. LET’S GO KLEENEX! THIS IS THE FINAL SHOWDOWN! ARE YOU READYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?! Moltar’s Bracket: Sephiroth > Snake Moltar’s Prediction: Snake: 49% - Sephiroth: 51% Lopen’s Analysis Shame, but I'm not gonna have too much to say about this match. It's a viable upset that I chose to take for an awesome comeback. I felt good about this upset (and some beyond!) before the contest. Snake had a heck of a lot of support last year, but I'm not really feeling it this year. Think he's lost most of his momentum, unfortunately. That being said, he's probably still strong enough to give Sephiroth a huge problem here. We basically have no read on Seph yet considering he's fought some SFF matches, a joke, and fodder. But yeah I think Snake will manage this upset at least. Short match helps that early FF7 vote be more effective, and I think people will be fiending for an upset at this point. Enter Snake, to take that upset. Will he gain momentum, though! I also think the day match favors Snake due to the lack of that evil FF7 night vote... though I think some dude mathed out that it actually helps FF characters. Not sure I understood that math though. Lopen's prediction: Snake with 54.56% Transience’s Analysis Well, this thing has been built up for months to the point where I don't even have anything to say. It's all been said. This is probably the most hyped match since Mario/Samus 2005. A lot of people are running away from Sephiroth right now because Samus is currently giving Cloud the fight of his life. I don't think that's fair. You see, I think Samus is stronger than Snake. If I could have changed the bracket, I would have had Samus facing Snake and Seph, and I might have picked her. Samus has looked great the last couple of years, losing only when the big Nintendo guys come around. I was saying last week that Samus was going to the final, and while I was being somewhat facetious, I liked her making it there more than Snake or Sephiroth. Cloud struggling with her doesn't mean Snake beats Sephiroth. Let's compare their performances. Snake gets 60% on Squall, Seph gets 56% on Tifa. Tifa and Squall are about equal so that's another point to Snake, but Sephiroth has shown a weakness to other FF7 characters in the past. He's been killed by Cloud the last few years. He struggled to put away Vincent and now he sucked against Tifa. It could very well be that Sephiroth is weak, but if he was I'd expect Tifa to have shown it too. Tifa looked good the whole way to Sephiroth. At this point though, I'm making excuses for Sephiroth. Snake should probably be looked at as the favourite, but I'm sticking with Seph. Sephiroth's in a day match which should be an advantage for him over Snake. Sephiroth has never conformed to any kind of expectation: it is a long running joke that he supernovas the stats, killing people when he wants to and then bombing the next time. I don't think Solid Snake is on Samus's level, not this contest. Sephiroth has looked to be a little bit below Cloud, but not by much. I think he can win this with a tiny bit of breathing room. transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 51.78% |
Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Crazy how Snake's chances have improved from "unlikely" (v Pika) to "possible" (v Squall/v Tifa) to "probable" (v Samus) in a mere 36 hours. Remember back when bandwagons (SC, Frog, L-Block) used to take several rounds to gain steam? Apparently they can now go 0 to 60 in under two days... in any case I'm sticking with the momentum; Snake to pull away in the last couple hours for the victory! Ngamer Says: Snake > Sephiroth, 50.83% Kleenex’s Analysis This match is obnoxious. It's highly anticipated and whatever, but I'm sitting this thing out just because I know how people get in these kinds of things! That aside, Snake and Sephiroth have both had their ups and downs this contest. Snake was looking pretty far removed from his steroids self with some mediocre early performances then that 55% on Pikachu thing, before finally looking like a champ putting down Squall without breaking a sweat. Sephiroth started with similarly mediocre performances, before taking down Missingno - brutally overnight, I might - and then going back to looking mediocre against Tifa. Here's the thing of it - before 4-ways happened, Snake wasn't anywhere near the likes of Sephiroth. It took Cloud being in a poll in order to barely steal a 50 vote win against Sephiroth. If this goes to back what we expect from 1v1 matches, Sephiroth wins this handliy. But this is not 2006 anymore. Snake has a real chance here, and just based on last round, I think most would probably call him the favorite. And if Snake gets past Seph, he's got a real shot at Cloud next round too - I don't think Cloud and Sephiroth are all that far removed in strength indirectly. The smart pick here would probably be Snake, I think. I'm not sure why I'm saying that, it's a bit of a gut "bad feeling" and it's a day match - where FF7 has cooled off a lot since a few years ago. But I'm sticking with Sephiroth here for brackets sake and to FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT against the evil MGS fanbase. Of course, this'll probably end up being a boring match one way or the other, but whatever. Contest is pretty much over anyway...maybe. *Early during Samus/Cloud, I receive this e-mail* If Samus ends up really close to Cloud or wins by the end of this match (close being within two percent), switch my prediction for the afternoon match to Snake > Sephiroth with the same percentage. gross *5 minutes later…* Writing's all over the wall for this. Just change it to Snake > Seph regardless of the outcome of this match. WHATEVER *Oh Kleenex* Bracket: Sephiroth Favorites: Sephiroth Prediction: Snake with 53.56% Red Sox’s Analysis This is it, the match of the contest. This is what 1v1 is all about, with two characters that have traveled long roads to get here, about to engage in a fight of paramount importance. Sephiroth has been a paragon of strength since 2003, the gatekeeper of Clinkeroth, who repeatedly swats aside Mario like a fly. Ever and always, people hype up mid-Noble Niners to challenge Clinkeroth, but they (Mario) always have (has) foundered on the rock of Sephiroth. In recent years, due to 4-ways, aspiring Noble Niners with newfound strength were not given the opportunity to try their hand at this ultimate test. They were shunted into matches against Cloud and Sephiroth, or other similar things, where even victory gained them naught. Snake is the greatest challenger, by accomplishments, the lower Noble Niner has ever produced, and at last he gets his chance to face Sephiroth. |
And
he has a chance. Last year, he got 43% on Cloud, which probably put him
around 46% on Sephiroth last year. It looks like FFVII has taken a bit
of a fall this year, which could bring Snake to 48%, and the 12-hour
format could magnify the anti-votes enough to bridge the rest of the
gap. I think Snake probably has fallen off from his peak last year a
bit himself though. Last night, when Cloud looked like he would get 55% on Samus, Sephiroth looked good, since I figure Cloud is worth around 53% on Seph, and Snake is probably quite close to Samus. With Cloud below 53% this morning, Snake's chances look substantially better. I'm still taking Sephiroth, but I don't think he's going to be able to swat Snake aside as he's done to Mario 3 times. This is his greatest test yet. Prediction: Sephiroth with 51.00% Upset Potential: 40% Upper Bound: Sephiroth with 55% Lower Bound: Snake with 53% Guest’s Analysis - Karma Hunter Hey. Where am I? Oh, hello - didn't see you there. What's that, you say? Contest analysis? Guest? Pshaw. What on earth would I be a guest for? Snake versus Sephiroth? But we've already seen that match! Twice! Snake embarrassed him both times! ...oh, without Cloud. ......oh. One on one. Okay. *cracks knuckles* Let's do this. SOLID SNAKE "It's not about winning or losing. I... No, we started this. And it's our duty to finish it." best character ever SEPHIROTH "No matter how many times I fall, your darkness keeps calling me back." not the best character ever Let's get down to brass tacks. You know I'm taking Snake here. My job is to convince you that there exists a rationale for this pick beyond wishful thinking and happy thoughts. A round ago, that would have probably been pretty difficult for the majority here. Now, things have changed. Solid ****'s pathetic display against Pikachu has turned into his biggest win ever over Squall. Sephiroth not only failed to SFF Tifa, but let her get 44% on him. The ultra-embarrassing possibility of being rSFFed by friggin' Tifa Lockheart is the one thing keeping him as the favorite in this match. Snake and Seph's contest history is brief, though very well known regardless. In 2006 Sephiroth was the easy favorite for outlasting Snake in the Battle Royale, but Snake came through where it counted and eliminated the One Winged Angel with the help of Cloud. One appearance in SSBB and MGS4 later, Sephiroth was no longer even a threat in the match, and instead his sole claim to fame would be to cause Cloud's demise at the hands of Snake and ultimately cost the FF7 lead his runner-up placing in the finals. Snake's jump in strength from 2006 to 2008 was huge - and he was plenty strong in 2006. What has given people doubts beyond "it's freakin' Sephiroth" have been two things: 1. Fourways. Snake theoretically benefiting from them means that he's got that much harder of a climb when forced to take on Seph in a 1v1 match. 2. It's 2010, not 2008. Brawl is no longer in the limelight, we're a few years removed from MGS4, and Snake has nothing on the horizon (unless you want to count Big Boss' exploits, which I wouldn't blame you for doing). Snake being weaker than in 2008 is a very real, perhaps probable possibility. I don't buy the fourways thing, though, at least as far as gauging the disparity of his strength from 2006 to 2008. We saw Snake in 1v1s for most of that year, and have an easy comparison to multi-way polls. I find it extremely hard to believe that Snake would leap up in strength in the fourway format, yet do nothing in 1v1s. Snake weakening is harder to argue against... but it's the extent of the weakening that we're concerned about here. FF7 has arguably been on the decline as well - just look at a given match of Cloud or Seph this year. |
Snake
also has some critical advantages as well. Chief among these is that he
only has to hold a lead over Sephiroth for twelve hours rather than
twenty-four... however, however, he will have to do it in the daytime,
which has traditionally been the death knell of MGS characters
everywhere. Snake's ASV has ranged from at least decent to good ever
since he got Brawl, though... but again, that's fourways. He held off
Cloud with it, but that could have easily been the fault of Sephiroth.
Will that really translate into a 1v1 match with an FF7 character? We haven't gotten to see Snake's ASV in action this year... but I really think it will. Smash is an All-ASV kinda monster. That timeframe is when his boost should make itself most known. Cloud and Sephiroth have shown they still have an ASV to work with this year, but beating Ryu (who is bad with it) and Tifa (in one of the weirdest matches ever) in the timeframe doesn't prove much to me. Sephiroth can't merely win it by a marginal amount if he's down by a ton of votes when 3 pm comes around. But will he be down by that much? We've seen Seph lose the board vote to Bowser and Ganondorf, then rip Mario a new one when it looked like the One Winged Angel was at his most vulnerable. There is precedent for Tifa overperforming on an elite and Snake being unable to capitalize, and a lot of his chances are dependent on antivotes coming through for him in a big way. People that follow the contest know that Snake is an elite character. Will Seph's antivoters still rally against him when he is now more endangered than he ever has before? I can't answer that particular question. I can't read the voters' minds. What I can tell you is that people right now are STARVED for an upset. The bigger the better. I can assure you Samus will give her darndest against Cloud, and that's exactly what I'm counting on - for her to try, and to lose tragically to create the perfect storm for Snake (Samus winning, perhaps counter-intuitively, would lessen Snake's chances considerably I feel). Snake has not had an opportunity like this to redeem himself since his defeat of Mega Man four years ago. He ran the table with the male bracket, but the biggest 1v1 win of that contest eluded him in the end. Since then he's had good matches. Great matches. But they've been fourways, and his final match was, while a thing of beauty, obviously illegitimate. He's endured all kinds of doubters this year taking everyone from Samus to Squall over him. This is the chance to lay all that to rest. This isn't just any upset. This is Clinkeroth. Ever since way back in 2002 and his close calls with Mega Man and Samus, Sephiroth has not come close to losing to any character not named Link or Cloud - even the latter, his stronger counterpart, cannot say the same due to Mario. He has an aura of invincibility, such that when he could only barely outperform what Mario got on him against TIFA, the only thing it made him was a more mild favorite. Villain, indeed. People have been trying to take down Sephiroth ever since the inception of these contests. Is it not fitting that now, as we finally get to see what many touted as the "Dream 2002 Final" and a chance to see that invincible aura shattered forever? Snake will need to pound Sephiroth into the dirt from the very beginning of the match, because the Heartless Angel will be storming back once he gets rolling. It's not the ASV he needs to watch out for - it's the SNV. This could come down to the final update. This could be the best match of the entire contest. Godspeed, gentlemen. (and try not to end up below Tifa in the unadjusted stats again Snake c'mon) Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 50.21% Crew Consensus: Snake is the 4-3 favorite over Sephiroth! |
Bonus Guest Analysis - marsman I saw that Karma Hunter challenged my "ninjaing" the Snake/Sephiroth battle. As I posted there, if he wants the spot and sends in a writeup, he can have it. If not, here is mine. I am really interested in this match. I have been burned taking Snake in the past (I had him winning the 2002 contest). I don't remember offhand, but I probably had him over Mega Man in 2003 as well. Snake then ran into some trouble in 2004, only pulling 51.39% against Frog and 50.59% on Bowser in 2005 (wow Frog has definitely died in the past 5 1/2 years considering he only got 36.78% on Bowser this year). That being said, he has grown a lot the past few years getting revenge on Mega Man in 2006 and going on to a respectable 2nd place finish. He edged out Sephiroth in the Battle Royale, but who knows since Cloud was involved. Snake made it to the finals in 2007 only to show he could not hang with the "Big Boys" that year. 2008 was Snake's big year to shine though. SFF was surely involved, but Snake bested both Cloud and Sephiroth in 2008 and then went on to get further revenge by getting more votes than Cloud in the 2008 finals. I'll add in that Sephiroth beat Mega Man in 2002, made it to the finals in 2003 and held his own against Cloud, and lost to Cloud again in 2004 before sitting out the main brackets of 2005 and 2006. As for this year, Sephiroth has had a pretty predictable path. Marth was no challenge, Vincent and Tifa were SFF beatdowns. The only real challenge was hoping that Missingno did not build up a big enough bandwagon to take him down. Meanwhile, Snake had a gimme match against Proto Man, trounced Fox, and performed well enough against both Pikachu and Squall. What does all this mean? It is hard to say, but I really feel that Snake has been getting more powerful while Sephiroth has peaked. Also, Sephiroth will pick up some FF anti-votes, Clinkeroth anti-votes, and Missingno grudge anti-votes. Bracket: Sephiroth > Snake Favorite: Snake Prediction: Snake with 50.35% The signs are all pointing that way, so I am going to go on a limb and trust Snake again. He has burned me so many times before, but it would be so worth it for him to advance, and with Sephiroth in my bracket I am hedging my bets and can't lose :) --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Cloud > Samus (242/288) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Dare I say it? --- :> |
hype --- xyzzy |
Solid Snake 93.75% 15 Sephiroth 6.25% 1 TOTAL VOTES 16 well, here goes pain --- xyzzy |
Aw yeah. Highest Snake prediction right here Y'all are just poseur Snake supporters, believe doesn't run through your veins like it does for me...! (look at that start) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
Snake > Link I believe. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Momentum timez The beast has been set in motion GameFAQs will not abandon slayer of the vile FF7 THE LEGENDARY Solid Snake has this contest, Gentlemen. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I didn't scroll down far enough to see that he posted it for me! :) --- Maybe PICS NAO later, WTF do you think this is, Neopets or something! No ****ing maybe no ****ing later, PICS NAO or DAIIIIII!! -- LeighDaMan |
From: LeonhartFour | #165 I will vote Snake > Link any day of the week. --- Maybe PICS NAO later, WTF do you think this is, Neopets or something! No ****ing maybe no ****ing later, PICS NAO or DAIIIIII!! -- LeighDaMan |
this is so over. bring on cloud --- xzy |
HAHA MOLTAR WHAT NOW --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Now it'll come down to Cloud vs. Snake! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Yeah,
I dunno what I'm going to do about that one. We'll see. Maybe I'll have
to change my prediction again 20 times to throw Moltar off. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I let you have this one, Kleenex. I always believed in Snake! Just don't blow it in the end! --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Sephiroth > Snake (258/304) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
...dammit I'm going to end up having the LOWEST Snake pick!? I suck so bad at this why do I always underestimate Snake --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
You know that whenever Lopen gets the point for a match, it was a good match --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
Just don't blow it in the end! Still totally going got Cloud > Link in the finals if Cloud makes it --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Round 5 Tea Party Moltar: Dammit..dammit, I can’t believe I let those two trick me. Me! The Endless Voting Witch! And so close to the end too. I guess I have no other options left. It’s time…to drive them all into despair. *disappears* Moltar: *reappears in the main room* Everyone, gather here now! Ngamer: *appears* At your request, Moltar. Red Sox: *appears* Oh my, such a rude summoning. *giggle* Tran: *appears* Present! Lopen: *appears* … Kleenex: *appears* I’m ready this time! I’m not going to fail you again, Lopen! Moltar: Listen up, I know what’s been going on here. I’ve been too easy on you guys up until now. Kleenex, I should have torn you apart during out match. Kleenex: Wha?! I wouldn’t have given you that opportunity! Moltar: Ngamer and Red Sox, I should have kept my eye on the two of you at all times. Red Sox: Looks like you found out about our little chat. Ngamer: We’re very sorry about that, Moltar. Pukuku Moltar: Lopen and Transience, I should have known you two would try to play some trick on me. Tran: Ha, you can’t ever beat me. It’s like I’m paper and you’re rock! You’ll never win! Lopen: If you’re paper, then I must me scissors. *smirk* Tran: No, I’m Super- Moltar: Silence!! I’m done messing around. You want to see why I’m considered the most feared witch alive? This contest is almost over, and so far, no one has been able to explain my tricks. Kleenex: We’re all close though. In fact, I know I’m ready to- Moltar: You aren’t ready for anything!! You want to explain something? Explain THIS!!! *Link gets 70% on Sonic.* Kleenex: Wha…WHAT? Tran: Whoa, I didn’t expect that. Lopen: …Hmmph, Sonic performed poorly because he- Moltar: I already know where you’re going! Sonic has not dropped in strength from the previous game. Kleenex: But this was an underperformance! Link couldn’t be that strong! Moltar: Then explain it! Explain it with your stupid voters theory then! Red Sox: Hmm, this is tough. Ngamer: I think I have an explanation. Doesn’t Sonic rely heavily on the Nintendo fanbase? If that’s the case, then Sonic was SFFed by Link. Tran: Repeat it in bold, Molty! Sonic was not SFFed by Link! Moltar: …Grr, I refuse! Lopen: Then that will be accepted as the truth. Moltar: I don’t care! Explain this! *Mario gets 53.5% on Charizard* Kleenex: What are you doing? This doesn’t make any sense!! Lopen: Last round, Charizard got 55% on Bowser. We got confirmation that Pokemon HG/SS had inflated that performance. Could that be the case here as well? Kleenex: …! That’s brilliant, Lopen! Moltar: Ha! Heart Gold and Soul Silver were not the cause of Charizard’s performance! Kleenex: Impossible! You just lied! How could Chariard do that well without the game? Moltar: Ahahahaha, the Bold Truth is the absolute truth! It is never wrong! Red Sox: Wait, I know this trick. Moltar just used clever wordplay there. He said it was not THE cause. However, it could be one of several causes. Moltar: Ha, I should have figured my teacher would see through that. If you’re so smart, what was this other factor then? Tran: …I know, Pokemon boost! Pokemon have been performing well all throughout the contest. That means Pokemon must have boosted, with Charizard being the strongest! Moltar: Hoh, I’ll allow that explanation, even though it’s terrible. This result will be all magic! *Cloud gets 53% on Samus* |
Lopen: This is crazy. Moltar, what are you doing? These results don’t make sense. Tran: Yeah! You’re just doing stupid stuff now! I know you’re desperate, but this is ridiculous! Moltar: Ridiculous? RIDICULOUS? The only thing that’s RIDICULOUS here is the fact that the 5 of you are trying to disprove my magic! You’re wasting your time! Trans: Gah….hey Goats! Help us out here instead of standing around doing nothing! Guests: … Ngamer: Hmm, Samus has been looking stronger than usual in this contest. Perhaps she’s boosted in strength. Red Sox: Yes, that might work. A boost to that level seems high, but Samus has looked good enough. Moltar: A boost? Ha! Samus and Snake have not boosted significantly in strength! Kleenex: Wait, what does Snake have to with thi- *Snake beats Sephiroth* Moltar: AhahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahhahaHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA! Explain it! Explain it! Explain it! Explain it! Explain it! Explain it! Explain it! Explain it!!!! Kleenex: …this…this can’t be! Red Sox: Oh dear…I’m stumped. Ngamer: Hmm…this is pretty tough. Tran: Not fair! Not fair! Not fair! Lopen: … Moltar: All of you are stumped? And so close to the end? I thought all of you were close to figuring it out? What’s wrong? Did it get too hard now? Well listen to this! I had been planning this the entire time! You all thought you had me with my back again the wall, but I only backed into the corner to draw everyone in! Now, prepare to submit! I’VE WON! SUBMIT TO MY POWERS, LOSERSSSSSSSSSSSSS! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *glass breaks* |
I still have no idea why those things are so awesome. But they are. Though Snake beating Seph is totally my plot get your grimy hands off of it --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
if you think they're awesome then just go play- oh hey KP --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Sephiroth > Snake (258/304) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Uminek"no" --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I would but I'm quite busy with uhh... games. No time for pigmen. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Semifinals: Round 5 - Match 125 – (1) Link vs. (1) Mario Moltar’s Analysis Link Round 1 - 79.81% vs. Thrall Round 2 - 71.79% vs. Alucard Round 3 - 67.28% vs. Mega Man X Round 4 - 71.13% vs. Luigi Round 5 - 70.23% vs. Sonic The fun of SFF Mario Round 1 - 81.04% vs. Falco Round 2 - 63.16% vs. Big Boss Round 3 - 74.10% vs. Ike Round 4 - 58.38% vs. Mega Man Round 5 - 53.59% vs. Charizard Hey our first 24 hour match is wasted on something we’ve seen like 5 times before. Link vs. Mario goes the same way every time. Link is the King, Mario is his *****. Expect this to be the standard 60-40ish split, with Mario maybe doing a little better than usual thanks to underdog voting/being a bit more relevant. Moltar’s Bracket: Link > Mario Moltar’s Prediction: Link: 61% - Mario: 39% Lopen’s Analysis For such a late match there isn't really that much to talk about here, unfortunately. You've got Mario, who lost to Link with 38% back in the day. He's been waiting some time for a rematch. I think Mario ends up looking surprisingly good here, for a few reasons: 1. Mario's probably stronger now than he was back then. 2. There was SMS back then, but SMS was met with a fairly lukewarm reception, so I think any boost he might've obtained from it likely disappeared before his match with Link last time. 3. ANTI CHAMPION VOTEZ. Yeah. Those people who voted against Mario last round, think they're still fiending. That's why Mario, Seph, and Cloud all underwhelmed. Link uhhh... okay well Link looked good what the crap Sonic. Regardless, I think it's there, and it's going to get close to a boil here. Callin it right now: Mario leads for 5 minutes. Ohh yes believe. Lopen's prediction: Link with 54.04% Transience’s Analysis A 24 hour match?! Only having to write one of these is such a relief. Okay, Link wins. I think Mario does better than expected because there's a bit of an anti-Link sentiment this year (something FF7 characters could never take advantage of because there's a bigger anti-FF7 sentiment). That said, Link got 70% on Luigi, Sonic and Alucard. Yeah, Alucard. Link's probably worth about 62% on Mario straight-up before SFF and anti-voting. I'll say that it balances itself out and we get a somewhat fair match. transience's prediction: Link with 62.31% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: The site has been spoiling for an upset this week, and we've seen it sting Seph, Mario, Cloud, Seph again... why the heck is Link invincible to this stuff? I've always been shocked by how he dodges the target on his back despite being the clear #1 for seven straight years- and I think it catches up to him today! Not in terms of an actual upset or anything so crazy, but I do think Mario's positioned nicely for his best ever performance vs Link. Ngamer Says: Link > Mario, 59.11% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Oh hey, 24 hour matches. This is going to be fairly weird after two months of rapid-fire ones. Not to mention the first one is going to be suitably boring - but hey, it's a Link match. You can't except much. Link and Mario actually haven't met in a 1v1 setting since waaaay back in the 2002 finals. Their crossings in 4-ways showed that...well, the score probably hasn't changed much between the two since then. A couple days ago I probably would have taken Mario to impress a bit here, but after the complete destruction of Sonic that was dished out, I'm not so sure. Link has only dipped below 70% against one opponent this year. That's damn impressive. Though to be fair, Mario's looked pretty good too (minus the Charizard match, but that's more than likely a bit of an anomaly). Still, people still aren't tired of Link winning every year, and he's not about to be stopped by Mario of all people. IT'S FREAKING LINK. Whoever wins tomorrow's match, though...that's a different story. Bracket: Link Favorites: Link Prediction: Link with 63.14% Red Sox’s Analysis We've seen this match many times before, and Mario has never broken 38%. Here's the list: 2002: 37.47% 2006 (BR1): 29.72% 2006 (BR2): 24.26% 2007: 37.91% 2008 (R4): 34.98% 2008 (R5): 33.72% Last year was a bad year for Mario, but Link has looked somewhat weaker than usual this year, so he probably won't hit his 65% from last year. I think and hope he can get close though. Prediction: Link with 64.00% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Link with 67% Lower Bound: Link with 60% Crew Consensus: Bye Bye Mario |
Also I forgot to do sign-ups for Link/Mario so whoever posts their stuff here first wins Also someone take Cloud/Snake --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Sephiroth > Snake (258/304) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Wow, love my position here. Go high, guest! --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
I'll take Cloud/Snake. Someone else can have Link/Mario. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Line at ~56.5 Make your time, NGamer --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'll take Link/Mario! Gimme a second to write something up --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
FantasyFreak999's Guest Writeup Well, here it is, the Nintendo matchup that we all saw coming and that we all know who will win it. Link vs. Mario has never ended in the plumber's favor, and it probably never will. Unfortunately, these 2 titans share the same fanbase, so Mario's gonna look weaker than he really is. Expect in the low 60s. Link - 61.59% --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
I'll take Link/Snake. --- The Gamer In Me My Signature's broken, just like your front door. |
hey Moltar can I have the finals I haven't gotten one all contest! >_> --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Ugh, not nearly high enough, Guest Clan! Anyways, yikes, 85000 votes in a 12 hour match- and there's still a half hour to go! What kind of number will Snake/Cloud be able to put up, given the whole 24 hours? And then, if it stays close enough for rallying to get involved... jeez. --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Mmmm, damn. Looks like Mario is still being SFFed It's a shame the champion of truth Solid Snake is immune to SFF, huh Link? Huh? --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Link comes to town to prove that he is the ultimate mascot. |
So let's say Solid beats Cloud tomorrow. How long could he lead over Link? --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
24 hours tbqh --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Samus Aran 47.19% 27999 Cloud Strife 52.81% 31335 TOTAL VOTES 59334 Solid Snake 52.96% 45954 Sephiroth 47.04% 40822 TOTAL VOTES 86776 Crew Predictions - 105/120 What Happened: lol FF7 Why it Happened: FF7 is clearly falling off the map and/or getting anti-voted. Not only did Samus come close to Cloud, Snake actually beat Sephy! What will Happen: Cloud better watch out. He's stronger than Seph, but Snake's bandwagon is growing. Crew Prediction Challenge - gg Kleenex Kleenex - 110 Moltar - 109 Red Sox - 108 Ngamer - 108 Tran - 107 Lopen - 103 Guest - 103 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Cloud and Kleenex gets the point for Snake Moltar - 23.5 Ngamer - 23 Guest - 20.5 (Bio: 2.5, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 3, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 2, War: 1, Turtle: 2, Smashy: 1, Ngirl: 1, Luster: 1, Curt: 1, Tsunami: 1) Lopen - 17 Tran - 16 Red Sox - 15 Kleenex - 8 --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Link > Mario (258/320) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex with an accuracy point? What is this blasphemy? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
