GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7
Cid=Aeris (was the assumption). Auron faced Aeris and Zero. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Mega
Man is known to overlap with Nintendo; in 2005 he annihilated Yoshi and
in 2008, Mega Man X lost to Zack in a fourway with Mario and Link. Mega
Man is more independent than other Nintendo guys, but he's still
identified as a Nintendo character. As such, I have a hard time seeing
him beating Nintendo's main mascot no matter the strength. It's like a
lesser form of Mario/Samus - I think Samus is stronger outright than
Mario is (and her performances this year have validated her as such),
but there's no way she'll ever win that match. I also don't know what to make of Mega Man's performances so far this year. I don't know how strong Zack is. Cid is a wildcard since we've never seen him before. Hayabusa was a nice win, but I think his sprite picture hurts him significantly. Mega Man is definitely stronger than he was back in 2006, but I don't know how much. The Zero/Auron match told me more about Mega Man's boost than any of his matches this year. I am cheering like hell for Mega Man -- he's probably my favourite character in this contest -- but I have to give this one to Mario. This being a night match helps Mega Man significantly, but he'll need more than just a night match to beat Mario. transience's prediction: Mario with 56.59% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: I'm one of the bigger MM fans around, and not even I think he's capable of keeping this one close. Night match for a guy who Europe and Asia don't like, "it's freaking Mario", Link doubling X without breaking a sweat... I'll stick around 57, but Mario shooting to 60 wouldn't surprise me in the least. Ngamer Says: Mario > Mega Man, 57.07% Kleenex’s Analysis Over the course of this contest, Mega Man has looked statistically better than Mario. If you base this match purely on the stats, Mega Man has a real chance here and should probably even be called the favorite. But in my mind, this is a classic case of IT'S FRIGGIN' MARIO (hi KP). Yes, MMX led Mario for 9 some odd hours last year, but it was in a match with a bunch of other Nintendo character and it was LOL 4-WAYS. Yes, this match is an hour shorter than it should be. But Mario's not going to drop this. Mega Man will probably look pretty good early on, but Mario's not going to have any real trouble here. Bracket: Mario Favorites: Mario Prediction: Mario with 55.31% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Megaman has done everything in his power to convince us he has a shot of winning this match tonight. He put up 63% on Cid, then 61% on Zack, both very impressive performances. Then he put up 72% on Ryu Hayabusa immediately after Mario only put up 74% on Ike. Which is a bigger handicap, SFF or Hayabusa's sprite? Of course, Mario hasn't been too shabby himself this year- he put up 63% on Big Boss at night. Nonetheless, statistically, this looks to be a pretty close match. The night probably favors Megaman slightly, but not by much. The problem a lot of people have with this is that it's freaking Mario or something like that. Then they throw around Mario/Samus and a bunch of insults about how obvious this match is and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot. Well, it isn't, and Mario has yet to demonstrate the ability to SFF anyone he needs to beat- just Samus. Mario may turn on the Nintendo or Old School SFF in this match and win 60-40.....but Megaman could just as easily win. Since the range of possibilities shows many more possible percentages Mario can win with than Megaman, I'm going with a narrow Mario win as my prediction tonight, but hoping for Megaman to pull it off. No guru took MM before the contest. Not one. We had Missingno winning the contest, Mario losing to Sora, Crono beating Sephiroth (that wasn't me!), and even Falcon beating Cloud, but not one person took this. Shaped like Freaking Mario to lose to a real robot! Prediction: Mario with 51.00% Upset Potential: 25% Upper Bound: Mario with 60.00% Lower Bound: Mega Man with 52.00% Crew Consensus: MM > Mario? Not here, as the majority easily favors Mario |
No one else took Mario to win a close match? Well I feel better about Mario with 51% after seeing KP's numbers. Mario isn't the same as Mario 2005 anymore, but neither is Zero. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
Whoa, people have entirely too much faith in Mega Man. This won't be close. --- study the past if you would define the future |
Looks like KP needs to post his write-up soon. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
You signed up to be the guest on this match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
Click back a page, Lusty. --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Damn, he posted his analysis rather early, before Moltar posted all of the write-ups on this match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
KP is too cool for e-mail He just wants to be a rebel --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Sonic > Kirby (162/200) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I always do that! Or I forget like with Zard/Block, but in my defense I'm not really sure why I even bothered taking that --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
And the Guest Clan had a chance to surpass Lopen, too! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
whoopz ! --- study the past if you would define the future |
Link 71.13% 41062 Luigi 28.87% 16669 TOTAL VOTES 57731 Sonic the Hedgehog 54.61% 39575 Kirby 45.39% 32894 TOTAL VOTES 72469 Crew Predictions - 96/110 What Happened: Link crushes Luigi and Sonic has no problem with Kirby Why it Happened: SFF in the first match, and the second match showed that Sonic isn't losing to the Nintendo near-elites any time soon. What will Happen: Sonic is next on Link's warpath. Should do better than MMX. Crew Prediction Challenge - pointz Moltar - 101 Kleenex - 101 Red Sox - 99 Tran - 99 Ngamer - 99 Lopen - 95 Guest - 95 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Link and Moltar gets the point for Sonic Moltar - 22 Ngamer - 21 Guest - 19.5 (Bio: 2.5, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 3, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 2, War: 1, Turtle: 2, Smashy: 1, Ngirl: 1, Luster: 1, Curt: 1) Tran - 16 Lopen - 15 Red Sox - 12.5 Kleenex - 7 --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Mario > Mega Man (170/208) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
it's friggin' mario'd --- xzy |
so, yeah, how about sprite Hayabusa? that dude is so weak. either that or we've got some rSFF here --- xyzzy |
Heart Division: Round 4 - Match 116 – (4) Bowser vs. (7) Charizard Moltar’s Analysis Bowser Round 1 - 63.22% vs. Frog Round 2 - 61.68% vs. Kefka Round 3 - 54.70% vs. Sora I guess you can say Bowser gutted the HEART of this division! Charizard Round 1 - 64.25% vs. Duke Round 2 - 54.49% vs. Kratos Round 3 - 60.64% vs. L-Block Another joke falls This is easily the most debated match of the round. Both characters have looked great so far going into this match. However, Charizard gets this on the day of Heart Gold and Soul Silver! Will that be enough to give Charizard the edge here? I don’t think so. Any other day and Bowser would have this no question. Also, I’d take Bowser’s performance on Sora over Charizard’s performance on Kratos (yes I’m aware it’s Sora worst time). In fact, I’d give Bowser the slight advantage for all of his performances. Frog would wreck Duke and Kefka would beat L. And then you’ve got the fact that this is Bowser vs. Charizard, and Mario usually has the advantage over Pokemon. The Pokemon game will put Charizard very close, but I see Bowser edging out his opponent. Moltar’s Bracket: Sora > Kratos (lol) Moltar’s Prediction: Bowser: 52% - Charizard: 48% Lopen’s Analysis Charizard did well to get by Kratos, but the train ends here. Bad end of the SFF stick, and well... this match mostly boils down to "Night Sora vs Day Kratos who ya got?" Figure most pick Sora there, though admittedly probably not by much cause robbing Sora of his day vote is bad business. Day match might help 'da Zard' but I don't think it'll be enough. Bad end of the SFF stick is gonna mean a lot here, methinks. In a straight match, Zard loses probably by around what Sora did, but I like Bowser to crank up the heat a little bit here. "Pokemon doesn't get SFFed" well try this one on for size, Pokefreakz. Lopen's prediction: Bowser with 58.45% Transience’s Analysis After Charizard's match, I had complete faith in Bowser. Bowser beat Mewtwo back when even with Toad in the poll. Ganondorf beat Mewtwo this year and he's always been assumed to be about the same as Bowser. Bowser should win this in a walk. I've been shaken over the last week, though: - This is a day match -- advantage: Charizard - Pikachu took it to Snake, Missingno looks legit (as in, not just a joke character but something with legitimate strength) - I'm told that the new Pokemon game is out on whatever day this match is, and Pokemon's second only to Final Fantasy when it comes to bringing people to the site - Those pictures favour Charizard, especially that one Pokemon picture - Maybe most importantly, I feel like there's a bandwagon behind Charizard. Not a joke bandwagon or anything, but a "this guy is new and exciting" kind of bandwagon. It's the kind of bandwagon Magus and Frog had when they were new. Vincent had it in 2005. Charizard seems like the upstart new entrant who's trying to break up the status quo and that's a dangerous thing. Also, he's the only Pokemon left. I'm sticking with Bowser but I don't feel too comfortable about it. I think I'd go for Charizard if I didn't have some sort of dork pride going on here. transience's prediction: Bowser with 51.51% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Bowser's got to like seeing the "Nintendo hierarchy" working out for Mario, but with the perfect timing of HG/SS I'm still extremely nervous over what's going to happen once the ASV kicks in. The Koopa King probably still pulls it out, but I'm sensing a struggle. Ngamer Says: Bowser > Charizard, 50.83% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Probably the only interesting match this round. But probably not that interesting. Bowser made a fool out of Sora last round, and Charizard made a fool out of L-Block. Which is all well and good, but when I compare Bowser's 3rd round to Charizard's 2nd round, it's really hard for me to back Charizard here. If people are still bitter over Missingno getting skewered or something, Charizard might be able to pull off an upset here, but it's not something I'd count on. Charizard's done well this contest - I can't really deny that any more - but he's not on Bowser's level. He'll go out respectably, but this is the end of the road for the Pokemon this contest. Bracket: Sora (lol wut) Favorites: Bowser Prediction: Bowser with 56.87% Red Sox’s Analysis This is potentially the match of the round (unless, as you're reading this, you're watching Megaman fighting to pull off the greatest Noble Nine upset....well.....ever). Let's compare these two round by round: Round 1: Bowser got 63% on Frog in the day, Charizard got 64% against Duke Nukem at night. Advantage Charizard Round 2: Bowser got 61.5% against Kefka in the day, Charizard got 54.5% against Kratos in the day. Eh.....slight advantage Charizard. Round 3: Bowser got 54.5% on Sora at night, Charizard got 61% on L-Block in the day, in the sprite round. Slight advantage Bowser. That 61% on L-Block would give the advantage to Charizard for all 3 rounds, but I think Pokemon do better with sprites, so it looks somewhat less impressive considering that. Nonetheless, Charizard has HG/SS coming out on the day of the match- that's a recipe for success. Since the results so far suggest a close match (indeed, probably slightly favorable to Charizard), HG/SS wins him my prediction. Prediction: Charizard with 52.10% Upset Potential: 40% Upper Bound: Charizard with 57% Lower Bound: Bowser with 53% Crew Consensus: Bowser is the superior fire beast |
guest fail --- xyzzy |
Augh, DST giving me an hour less than I thought I had... Give me a minute. --- "Eet's game time..." |
Crew Curse --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 173/208 - Today's Winners: Mario and Sora |
WHAT A TERRIBLE NIGHT TO HAVE A CURSE. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
NGamer fearing the Sunday ASV --- Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 11th Today's prediction: Mario - 55.44% Status: meh |
Not looked at any of the other predictons yet for what it's worth, and going with my Oracle prediction anyway, but here we go. Charizard's looked good in his first 3 matches, no doubt about that, exceeding most people's expectations. However, this is arguably his first real test of the contest; it's Bowser where he's going to have to really prove his mettle. There was always the distinct possibility that Duke and L were going to suffer a drop in potency in the 1-1 format (Indeed, L was probably always going to drop regardless of the format), and Kratos looked strangely weak in his first round match against Tails. Charizard went into their match as the favourite. Even Kratos is plumbing around the depths of midcarder though, Bowser is fancying himself around the likes of Auron and Tifa. To beat Bowser would be to put himself about as a real contender against them. In truth though, Bowser has a lot more in his favour here. He's the contest mainstay, has the more solid results from the current contest, and is higher in the "Nintendo hierarchy" for what it's worth. Charizard has a day match (without a ASV too), and the US release of HG/SS. Depending on how close you have Charizard to Bowser normally, is that enough? Probably not. Charizard probably gets something similar to what Sora got here, which should mark him out as having had a very fine contest all round. As one of the guys who had Bowser winning his division, the Koopa King's had a welcome return to form too. Shame about Round 5's opponent! Bowser with 53.5% --- "Eet's game time..." |
Well
I guess Bowser is the favorite.But I would like Charizard to win.He
will have the lower predictionn of the entire contest anyway and I
would like to see that. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
looks like the Charizard hype was warranted. there goes money for me! --- xyzzy |
Wel done Red Sox. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
god damn you bandwagon --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
There
actually doesn't seem to be a bandwagon at all here. Bowser won the
early board vote, and since then trends have been entirely normal. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
Something
odd is going on here, whether it be Missingno fallout or HS/SS BOOST,
because there's no way you can convince me that Sora loses to Kratos. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Or Bowser, for that matter. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
How
about that Sora would done a lot better in the day, Charizard would've
beat Kratos worse in the night, Kratos had GoW3 hype, and HG/SS
releasing today accounts for a % or two? X-stats this year are going to be crap. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
HG/SS it is. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Can't you read, I said I will not be convinced! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Plus
Bowser probably ends up at 53.5% or so. He wouldn't win even if HG/SS
wasn't being released but he may have made it respectable! --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
I
just listed out like four factors that explained how Sora would
probably beat Kratos while still being far worse in the stats, man! --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
never Besides, the important thing here is that Moltar also picked Bowser. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Damn I totally forgot today was when HG/SS was released. Might've went with Charizard then --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Varia Division: Round 4 - Match 117 – (1) Samus Aran vs. (10) Zelda Moltar’s Analysis Samus Round 1 - 78.69% vs. Prince Round 2 - 67.52% vs. Jill Round 3 - 67.31% vs. Sub-Zero The Queen with another excellent showing Zelda Round 1 - 70.67% vs. Travis Round 2 - 62.11% vs. Ezio Round 3 - 59.72% vs. Jecht And that’s why you are only a Princess. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2559 Dark days in the female bracket. Samus struggled with both Tifa and Zelda, making them look far better than they should. Will this match go the same way? I don’t think so! That was just Female Bracket weirdness. This Contest, we’ve seen Samus beast three times and Zelda disappoint three times. The matches against Ezio, who failed to beat Simon by much, and Jecht, who is around Phoenix and Ratchet level, are especially telling. Zelda looks to be weaker this year, while Samus remains as strong as ever. I’m feeling a good increase from that match in 2006. Watch out Cloud! Moltar’s Bracket: Samus > Zelda Moltar’s Prediction: Samus: 61% - Zelda: 39% Lopen’s Analysis Well I've been batting terribly this round, but I figure my luck changes here cause really how could it not. Hell we already saw this match once-- "SAMUS BLOWS UP DAT HEAD" I'll go with what Samus got in 2006 plus a little bit to factor in Zelda series deterioration. No shades this time! Ah screw it I like those shades... *puts on shades* The more they stay the same Lopen's prediction: Samus with 55.27% Transience’s Analysis We saw this match in 2006 and really, there's no reason for it to go much differently. The Zelda series was sky-high in 2006 though and seems to have declined since. Zelda put on some massive performances that year en route to getting 45% on Samus. This year, Zelda is kind of limping into round 4 while Samus might just be the tournament MVP so far. There's always question marks about Samus and a higher-tier Nintendo series, but she did kill Ganondorf last year. Ganondorf's much more of a leech than Zelda ever was, but still, I don't see Zelda breaking 40% this time. transience's prediction: Samus with 62.55% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Samus always gets out to a fantastic start in these Night Matches and then falls off like nuts. Since she's finally against another Day Voter this time though, I think she goes up big and just stays there! Ngamer Says: Samus > Zelda, 61.43% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Hey we've seen this match before. Samus wins. Shocking. It's probably going to be a boring couple of days in contest land unless Squall manages to get that dirty rotten cheater out of this contest (believe), but that's not likely. What else is there to say here? Samus has always been stronger, has looked really good this contest, and is higher on the Nintendo totem pole. Zelda probably won't come out of this match looking too bad, because we know that Samus couldn't SFF her way out of a paper bag, but this'll be another boring affair. As for percentages, I'm going to be lazy and use the EXACT SAME PERCENTAGES that they got back in 2006. Sure, that method didn't work at all in Sephiroth/Vincent, but WHO CARES. Bracket: Samus Favorites: Zelda Prediction: Samus with 55.27% Red Sox’s Analysis Here is an easy win for the Queen of SFF. Not that Samus has demonstrated much aptitude at all for it, but the name is catchy, and as the strongest female character, she may very well be the Queen of SFF! Zelda got 45% back in 2006 in the Female Bracket, on the strength of TP hype and Samus being the obvious winner. She won't have either advantage now, so Samus should win very easily. Prediction: Samus with 63.00% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Samus with 67% Lower Bound: Samus with 59% Guest’s Analysis - Chaotic Mind Samus beat Zelda with 55% a few years ago. Zelda has looked weak this year by failing to break 60% on a guy who barely beat Phoenix Wright with like 53%, while Samus has looked as strong as ever if not stronger. As such, i'm taking Samus to better her performance this year, to the tune of... Prediction: Samus - 60.5% Crew Consensus: Samus blasts a charged shot at Zelda for the KO |
Lopenex gettin' the point today for sure --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: Lopen | #440 Man first it was "I forgot it was the sprite round, like three times" and now this Excuses excuses --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
And you had Bowser winning with 58%! That's quite a swing! --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
Hey, Moltar yes MOLTAR we have a score to settle... look at the results for Samus/Zelda 2k6: http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k6&type=match&match=61 yes, both #1. but now today's match will decide who is really the best between you and me when it comes to predicting Samus/Zelda matches we'll see who prevails! mwahahahaha (my pick is 60.02% BTW) --- Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 11th Today's prediction: Bowser - 54.13% Status: pokefear |
what the --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Bowser > Charizard (178/216) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
oh it's on --- Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 11th Today's prediction: Bowser - 54.13% Status: pokefear |
From: KamikazePotato | #445 No greater than Mario made in 2002! In theory, anyway. Also aw yeah "my student witch using my strategies" --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Also um I don't think I would've went with Charizard but I sure as hell would not have picked Bowser with 9000% if I remembered --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
