GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7
Midgar Division: Round 3 - Match 107 – (1) Cloud Strife vs. (4) Captain Falcon Moltar’s Analysis Cloud Round 1 - 71.72% vs. Ridley Round 2 - 71.99% vs. Chris Cloud somewhat redeemed, Ridley > Chris Falcon Round 1 - 71.13% vs. Wander Round 2 - 52.48% vs. Riku Falcon Upset! Congrats Falcon! By winning in a match few thought you would, you get the honor of getting killed by Cloud! Then again, it’ll be nice to finally get somewhat of a read on Falcon. It being a night match will make him look bad, but it’s better than the SFF-ridden numbers we’ve gotten from Falcon before! Falcon should be stronger than Ridley and Chris considering he beat Riku, but Cloud is going to make him look bad here. Moltar’s Bracket: Cloud > Falcon Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud: 70% - Falcon: 30% Lopen’s Analysis True story, I almost put Riku here as Cloud's opponent. Not that it matters, it's just a matter of "well SFF blah blah" or whatever. Anyway, let's say Falcon does alarmingly well here-- to the tune of winning the first minute or so. Yeah boy, you heard me. Captain Falcon board vote hail. I'll be voting him and I actually like Cloud! Lopen's prediction: Cloud with 57.77% Transience’s Analysis Cloud vs. Samus comparisons, round 3. Samus won round 1, round 2 was about a tossup. Samus just beat the ever-loving hell out of a legit midcarder in Sub-Zero. Cloud's got a guy that's definitely weaker than Sub-Zero in Falcon. Can he respond? I say yes because this is a night match and Falcon's not that great overnight. He should make Cloud look bad early on though, just like Ridley did. Falcon beat Riku without a sweat so he's not as weak as he once was, but KH has been sucking so that's probably not worth all that much. Cloud should be able to get around 70% here - Falcon should be stronger than Ridley thanks to Brawl, but not *that* much stronger. transience's prediction: Cloud with 69.59% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Wanted to lowball Cloud here (both for Samus hype and Falcon's awesome picture- seriously, great work whoever made that!), but FF13 is apparently turning FFers into minor deities right now. Have to go with a more conservative Ngamer Says: Cloud > Falcon, 68.63% |
Kleenex’s Analysis FFXIII BOOST HELL YEAH GET READY FOR THE PAIN FALCON In all honesty, I'm still worried about Cloud looking like a fool here. After Falcon absolutely horrifying early vote last round, compounded by the fact that Cloud is anti-voted far more than Riku is...it's a frightening thing to consider. Cloud will still win, but how well he looks is certainly up for debate. Once upon a time, Crono was able to triple the Cap'n. That's not happening here. If it does, Cloud wins the contest. Time to see if XIII boost is 4REAL. Bracket: Cloud Favorites: Cloud Prediction: Cloud with 66.66% Red Sox’s Analysis Please forgive the brevity of these write-ups, I'm very busy at the moment. Fortunately tomorrow's matches are pretty boring, and don't really need much in the way of a write-up. Cloud wins, but Captain Falcon looks to be much much stronger than the guy who lost 74-26 to Crono in 2006. Way stronger- I don't know why, but he is. Prediction: Cloud with 70.00% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Cloud with 75% Lower Bound: Cloud with 66% Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier Captain Falcon put on a good show last round by disposing of Riku with no real effort. Falcon's hit the brick wall finally, but it would be interesting to see what he does to Cloud with the board vote. Falcon should do better than Ridley at the start, as a result of being stronger than him and having the better board vote. It would be cool to see Falcon get above 30% here, but a night match makes this less unlikely. Also, Cloud might get a small boost from FFXIII, as a result of today's release bringing in more FF fans to the site to get game help. They'll favor Cloud much more than Falcon. This talk of a FFXIII boost for FF characters has been brought up just today, with some rather divided opinions on whether or not it's helping Jecht out. If Cloud's performance suggests a FFXIII boost, you can bet Sephiroth will get it too, which means bad news for Missingno. Luster Soldier's bracket: Cloud Strife Luster Soldier's Prediction: Cloud Strife - 69.13% Crew Consensus: Buster Sword > Falcon Punch |
Honestly,
I'll be kinda surprised if Falcon breaks 30% here. A night match is
tailor made for Cloud to rock Falcon like nobody's business. FFVII's
night vote is unparalleled in power, and Smash's is unparalleled in
suckiness. We saw Snake double Fox with a night match the other day,
and I'm not takin' Snake over Cloud or Falcon over Fox...yet. I know Cloud has more anti-votes to deal with than Snake does, but I just think Falcon's gonna get rocked here. Maybe he'll impress me. I'd definitely take him to get 30%+ in a day match though. And I do think this match is more about Zelda looking pretty bad than Jecht looking good. She hasn't really had a really good performance yet. Barely getting 70% on Travis Touchdown is pretty bad. Mewtwo got nearly 74% on him in 2008. I guess NMH2 might have helped him, but it only sold like 30,000 in that first week. And if this is FFXIII helping out Jecht, I wonder how badly Zelda beats Aerith and Yuna back in 2006! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
I heard that for the Ridley match too, and there's no way I take Ridley over Falcon (or Riku). I'm not sure if I should expect Cloud to go big because of FF13 or for Falcon to go big because he's been impressing lately. --- xyzzy |
I heard that for the Ridley match too, and there's no way I take Ridley over Falcon (or Riku). Would anyone have taken Ridley over Chris Redfield though? Didn't we all take Cloud under 70% because of that? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
I'd have taken Chris, but it wouldn't be too surprising if Ridley won that. --- xyzzy |
I
dunno. That Ridley match looks more like an outlier than a legit
performance. We'll see though. I'm still kinda skeptical about Falcon
doing anything here. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
I
was skeptical on him having a chance in hell against Wario and he
almost beat him. I was skeptical on him when he went against Diddy and
Kratos and he smashed them. I was skeptical on him against Riku and he
beat him outright with no excuses. I think it's time to give him the benefit of the doubt. --- xyzzy |
Falcon
is probably around Alucard's level, and Alucard got 28% on Link in a
favorable timeframe for him. I'm rooting for Falcon here, but there's a
decent chance he gets smashed. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 3/9/2010 12:19:38 PM | #190 tee hee --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
Almost
beating Wario doesn't impress me at all. After seeing Kratos lose
handily to Sackboy, beating Diddy and Kratos doesn't impress me either.
I think last round was more Riku sucking than anything else. Sora
basically confirmed that. Falcon's gonna have to do more than beat
fodder and low midcarders for me to give him credit. Tonight's his
chance. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
heh. --- xyzzy |
everyone here is taking Sub-Zero over Captain Falcon, right? --- xyzzy |
I believe, Captain. This Cloud night vote's gonna be somethin' else here though. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
I dunno if this is Falcon or Cloud, but I think we can rule out some FF13 boost. wonder how Samus/Zelda 2010 goes. --- xyzzy |
...or this is the FF13 boost! Captain Douglas Jay "The Beast" Falcon --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Samus
got like 62% against Ganondorf in 2008, but that's 4-ways. She got
nearly 60% on him in 2005 when he was fresh off the Villains Contest. I
think she'll get 60-63%, personally. Just for fun, if Zelda gets 37.46% or better, we get Jecht > Tidus in the stats. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Dang, you're the man, Falcon. With the way Cloud's been recovering though... I like my positioning for this one! --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Samus Aran 67.31% 34062 Sub-Zero 32.69% 16543 TOTAL VOTES 50605 Jecht 40.28% 30156 Zelda 59.72% 44712 TOTAL VOTES 74868 Crew Predictions - 88/102 What Happened: Samus rocks Subby and Zelda doesn't rock Jecht Why it Happened: Samus started off really strong, but eventually the match settled down and Subby ended a bit higher than Jill, which isn't too crazy. Zelda hasn't looked impressive this contest at all, and FFXIII may have helped out Jechy. What will Happen: Samus should beat Zelda much worse this time around. Crew Prediction Challenge - free points Moltar - 94 Kleenex - 93 Red Sox - 92 Ngamer - 92 Tran - 92 Lopen - 88 Guest - 87 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Red Sox gets the point for Samus and Ngamer gets the point for Zelda Ngamer - 20 Moltar - 19.5 Guest - 19.5 (Bio: 2.5, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 3, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 2, War: 1, Turtle: 2, Smashy: 1, Ngirl: 1, Luster: 1, Curt: 1) Lopen - 14 Tran - 14 Red Sox - 10 Kleenex - 7 --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Cloud > Falcon (134/168) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Wow what was I smoking when I put the prediction down for that one --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Although apparently for the first 15 minutes of the match I looked like a genius --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
No
offense to Lopen, but this year he just seems like the master of
predicting weird upsets that will always not happen. I mean, Duke >
Charizard, Zero > Auron, yadda yadda yadda yadda...of course, it's
always cool to have one think differently. |
Maybe he just wants to be kewl? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
From: LinkMarioSamus | #224 ...This year? As in, this is an exception? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Well, I don't know if this is Lopen's usual method of analysis. It probably is judging by was you guys are saying. As I said, it is not bad at all. Having somebody who thinks so differently is probably a good idea, in all honesty. |
This
is indeed Lopen's usual approach. The benefits are that when he's
right, he's spectacularly right, and that he usually doesn't get
eliminated in the Guru until very late because of late round upsets
worth tons of points. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
Midgar Division: Round 3 - Match 108 – (3) Leon Kennedy vs. (7) Ryu Moltar’s Analysis Leon Round 1 - 60.81% vs. Vault Boy Round 2 - 64.81% vs. Sackboy Sackboy gets sacked Ryu Round 1 - 68.97% vs. Balthier Round 2 - 50.35% vs. Dante Hockey Factor the best Factor This is kind of a joke match after last round. Ryu and Dante went through an incredible 12 hours of excitement, with Ryu pulling out the upset in the end. Now he goes on to face someone that Dante has spanked for years and would have spanked again this year. Now throw in the fact that Leon has that…thing…for a picture and Ryu has his glorious 2D sprite. Sorry Leon, but you’re out of boys to beat. Time to fight a real man. Moltar’s Bracket: Dante > Leon (whoops) Moltar’s Prediction: Leon: 43% - Ryu: 57% Lopen’s Analysis Basically this match comes down to two things. 1. Dante is stronger than Leon. 2. Leon's stuck with an even worse picture advantage than Dante had (which was a somewhat small one, admittedly, but yes I still think it was enough to turn the match) Put those two together, and Ryu wins comfortably, but not overly so. Lopen's prediction: Ryu with 53.38% Transience’s Analysis Ryu beat Dante. Dante's beaten Leon twice. Ryu beating Leon should be fairly obvious. I could probably just say that and move on, but Resident Evil's looked good while SF hasn't, so maybe Dante just sucked this year? Nah, there's no way I'm going to back that without a damn good reason. Leon doesn't have any reason to upstage Ryu, and that sprite is goddamn horrible. You don't pick against Ryu in the sprite round unless there's a good reason. Ryu could really beat Leon down here. transience's prediction: Ryu with 56.63% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: I've said since day one that post-RE boost/post-SF4, Ryu/Dante/Leon are all very close. Too bad this is the sprite round and so we won't get to see it! Ryu's packing probably one of my top five favorite pics ever- at this point Leon better just concentrate on avoiding the Ulti blowout. Ngamer Says: Ryu > Leon, 54.79% Kleenex’s Analysis Go Dante! ...damnit. This could almost be a debated match, but the fact that Dante has been solidly ahead of Leon for two years running really cuts this upset down before it even begins. Not to mention Leon probably has the worst picture this round. Good lord, what is that disaster. Damn you Resident Evil Gaiden. Buy hey, good for Ryu. He usually gets knocked down in Round 2, but he's gonna make it all the way to the Division finals this year. Not bad. Bracket: Ryu Favorites: Ryu Prediction: Ryu with 56.21% Red Sox’s Analysis This match was a relatively comfortable win for Ryu before, but with a massive picture advantage, it's now a very easy win for him. We'll get to see just how much the picture matters- I figure Ryu probably wins with around 53% normally. Prediction: Ryu with 58.00% Upset Potential: 2% Upper Bound: Ryu with 63% Lower Bound: Ryu with 53% Guest’s Analysis - Biolizard Analysis coming later. Prediction: Ryu with 54% Crew Consensus: Ryu asks Leon for some overtime and Leon refuses, which leads to Ryu kicking his ass. |
...I would've actually picked Leon --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
From: FantasyFreak999 | #230 And that would've been the end of you. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Ohhh, like my position again. --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Ugh- fight back at least a little bit, Leon! --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Uh,
yeah, no real analysis on my part. Dante has been beating Leon handily
for years now and this massive pic disadvantage wasn't going to be of
any help. Ryu had this one the day he won over Dante, but now it's just
100% confirmed. --- It may be insulting, but it's the truth! Now this is entertainment! |
Just imagine it: the top 9 in 2020: Missingno Pikachu Charizard Articuno Moltres Zapdos Blastoise Link Cloud All Gen-I Pokémon? I mean, yeah, the nostalgia factor is great and all, but how are they going to be able to get "the kiddies" to vote for them? By 2020, there will be legal adults who were born after the first generation came out, and while Pikachu will never die down and Charizard and Blastoise will probably carry over well, the legendary birds might struggle a bit, and Missingno....unlike the others, who at least have the benefit of the constant remakes and other methods of reappearing so they can be entered in the National Dex, Missingno. will be meaningless to anyone who wasn't around for Generation I. Mix it up a little; include some Pokémon from the later generations. At the very least, I should think Lugia and/or Ho-oh would be better candidates than the gen-I legendary trio, who have never appeared on a game box. (Although I am a little concerned about the idea of the more recent ones having strength, as the anime now seems to be pushing Piplup as the successor to Pikachu for series mascot, only Piplup is more annoying than Pikachu ever was and the fact that it has already been ruled that Pichu is ineligible for being the same as Pikachu means that Piplup would prevent its legitimately awesome final form, Empoleon, from ever getting in.) That said, I'm all for this--Articuno has always been a personal favorite of mine, even before it got that absolutely sick move combo for cheap OHKOs. --- CB8 score: 143 Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow. |
Gear Division: Round 3 - Match 109 – (1) Solid Snake vs. (5) Pikachu Moltar’s Analysis Snake Round 1 - 72.35% vs. Proto Man Round 2 - 67.03% vs. Fox Snake with a good showing against Fox Pikachu Round 1 - 75.09% vs. Banjo Round 2 - 61.01% vs. Shepard I’m Commander Shepard, and this is my least favorite match of the Contest. Well this match will probably be awful for about 5 minutes. After that, it will be smooth sailing for Snake. He gets to avoid that Pokemon ASV, so he should do alright here. Pikachu is no push-over though. Snake may have been able to thrash Fox, but Pika is much higher on the food-chain. Plus sprite round = auto-overperformance on Snake. Moltar’s Bracket: Snake > Pikachu Moltar’s Prediction: Snake: 60% - Pikachu: 40% Lopen’s Analysis So much like Fox's match this comes down to the disjointed hitboxes and also maybe some of that uhh down+b stuff. Let's see if Pika outdoes Fox now. Methinks he does! Lopen's prediction: Snake with 58.45% Transience’s Analysis It's a good thing this is a night match, because if it was in the day, who the hell knows what would happen. Metal Gear Solid has not looked good, Pokemon has, Pokemon has great sprites and Metal Gear Solid has awful ones. So what happens? Well, Snake should win unless the Pokefreaks are out in full force, and this is three or four days too early for that. I'd say Fox and Shepard are somewhat equal and Snake got 67% while Pikachu got 61%, so Snake still looks stronger. I could see Pikachu maybe keeping it competitive early but Snake should blitz him overnight. Lots of people remember Sprite Snake dying during the daytime and almost breaking the Noble Nine in 2005 against Bowser, so there's always that possibility if Snake has regressed to the mean like it seems he has. Snake's the safe pick though and I'm never going to abandon him for the rat. transience's prediction: Solid Snake with 57.99% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: What an enormous pic disadvantage- shoot, if only this were a Day Match! As is, I think Snake counters with enough Europe and Pika anti-vote support to stay out of danger... though he still might have a hard time cracking 60. Ngamer Says: Snake > Pikachu, 58.89% Red Sox’s Analysis Here it is, a match designed to fill you either with squeals of delight or stark horror. It's an egregiously unfair match, as Snake is set to do battle in the sprite round against Pikachu. The sprite round is probably good for Pokemon. It's very very bad for Solid Snake. But Snake still wins. Pikachu has a shot of leading at the freeze which is sure to send the board into an uproar if it happens, but he has very little chance of actually pulling this off, especially at night. Beating Yoshi's 2006 mark will be quite satisfactory for Pikachu. Prediction: Snake with 55.50% Upset Potential: 5% Upper Bound: Snake with 61% Lower Bound: Snake with 51% |
Guest’s Analysis - PaulG235 Solid Snake, a character who was once the low rung of the Noble Nine, almost losing or getting scares from characters like Frog and Bowser, never winning against his fellow niners, until 2006, where he took advantage of the format. Granted Mega Man and Crono sucked it and Sonic wasn't really one of the top dogs either, but he got his ass beat by Samus before taking advantage of SFF in the Battle royal and toppling over Samus, Mario and Sephiroth before getting completely killed by the kings of Nintendo/Square-Enix. 2007, He took advantage of the horrible bracket, easily a lock to make it to the final... Until L-Block went wild and Master Chief wasn't far off from upsetting Snake, too. He then got assassinated by all three finalists. In 2008, He had his best year, wrecking everyone but Cloud, until he took advantage of LFF and barely upset Cloud, thus got bandwagon'ed and tried to make a move on Link, but ultimately failed, but still managed to be the runner-up. Pikachu, a character who many refer to as a rat, whom at one point in these contests, failed to break 55% against PARAPPA THE ****ING RAPPER, who only had one other contest match, in which MC, Yuna, and Tommy put the dog out of its misery (well, not so much Tommy, but he lost the plot by then). Cloud almost quadrupled the rat one round later. One year later, it got doubled by a fox which got quadrupled by an elf. The rat was clearly fodder. So, in 2007, where Pikachu was expected to lose to Tidus and go out in round 2, it goes off, slaps Tidus silly, easily makes it to Round 3, then takes advantage of the 3-way Capcom LFF and comes in first... Before losing to Luigi, Dante getting his revenge, and MC having another round of Game Fuel. Some difference 4 years make, huh? 2008, Solid Rat kicked ass again. Well, not at first, he kinda did so-so for the first two rounds, then out of nowhere electrocutes the 2007 champion to death. L-Block, the joke which barely beat Ryu, got beat by someone whom many though he weaker than the former. He didn't roll over and die either against Samus/Crono/Vincent. In fact, IT GOT A BIGGER % ON THOSE THREE THAN MC/DANTE/LUIGI. The rat is no fodder, anymore, it's a high-midcarder. Moving onto this contest, They both do so-so. Snake did pretty well against a fodderline character in Protoman and a midcarder in Fox, whereas Rat killed fodder in Banjo and did okay against a low-midcarder in Shepard. So we come to the fight between Solid Snake and Solid Rat. Who will win? Solid Snake, of course. He'll easily 60-40 the rat to victory. But wait, Pokemon HG/SS is only days away from coming out. Will there be a HG/SS? Quite possibly, but Snake should still break 60% without too much difficulty. BUT WAIT, this is the sprite round: Pikachu looks great and Snake looks like crap! Will it make a difference? *Glances at Leon/Ryu* Yeah, looks like it will. Snake will be be lucky to break 60% here, and we've seen some strange things when Snake goes sprite. But still, looks like he'll score in the high 50's. BUT WAIT, this is Round 3. Hasn't Pikachu been known to cause some suprising results in Round 3? Upsetting The Block and coming first out of nowhere? That's another factor that could come in Solid Rat's favour, and if this match would follow suit like Pika's other R3 matches, could we perhaps see a *gasp* Rat > Snake upset? Heh-heh, no. Pikachu's certainly not that tough, and Snake SHOULD be able to win this without too much trouble. However, I say there is a small possibility that Snake will lay an egg here a la Snake/Frog. Noneoftheless, Snake should get around the mid/high 50's here. I'd say high 50's, though. Prediction: Solid Snake Percentage: 57.82% My Vote: Solid Snake Crew Consensus: Snake eats rat |
I'd say Fox and Shepard are somewhat equal *double takes* Wait, what? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Yeesh i'm glad i read this. Completely forgot that Snake gets his Solid **** pic here. *goes to massively lower his Oracle pick for Snake* --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Kleenex's Analysis save_us.RAT Snake with 60.56% --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I believe in Shepard a lot more than others do. quick, what does Fox get on Pikachu without SFF? --- xyzzy |
More than 40% --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
A perfect record pikachu is low tier and fox is almost top tier --- This is an alt for Applekidjosh If you're seeing this sig, I'm probably posting from my Droid |
I don't think so! --- xyzzy |
Fox is top tier. But Pikachu's usmash is just about as good as Fox's! --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
Pikachu
got a little bit more than 61% against Captain Falcon in their 2008
match (4-ways, yeah). I'd still take Fox to beat Falcon with a decent
bit of room to spare. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
yeah, I said without overlap. Pikachu is weird when it comes to that. Ike is another example. --- xyzzy |
I
see Fox/Pikachu being about 50/50. Fox had that killer win in 2003, but
that's arguably the biggest win he's ever had. Pikachu's beaten Dante
and slayed L-Block in a time Ryu couldn't in recent years. I'm also
cool giving Shepard some credit, so...it just depends on how much 2003
still scares us. I know Ryu barely won his rematch against Dante and I
think there are still some people scared of Aeris beating Sora
one-on-one again, so...I dunno. That clearly doesn't apply to every rematch from 2003 though (hello, Link). People tend to hold on tightly to past results in match-ups, and it's hard to fault them sometimes. It'd be a close match. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
50/50?
wow, I'd never go that far. PIkachu almost beat Luigi and got damn
close to Samus. Fox got murdered by Mario in 2007. he did well against
Sora though now that I look back so maybe I should give him some credit. --- xyzzy |
Man, Pikachu didn't come anywhere near Luigi! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
