GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator] |
There's
a difference between predicting the wrong percentage and trying to
craft an impossible upset just for the sake of an upset --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Link
will not tolerate this claim that Mario is the King of SFF. Link will
arrange a match between CD-i Link and Megaman before the Mario match so
Megaman can absorb his SFF powers. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
Yeah.
It'll be impossible up until the moment it happens. And if it doesn't,
you were right all along and you get to sit on your high horse some
more. Nice. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
And hey, if you want to play it that way. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=21 http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=202 --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
64 KleenexTissue 126 Mario 148192 8 Dead You do realize I'm trying to show that you using this line of logic is stupid --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Or rather, anyone using this line of logic is stupid --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
why are you being so hostile, KP? seriously, leave this kind of stuff to the stats topic. Mega Man X would beat Zack, but he lost there cleanly because he overlaps with Nintendo. it's not a much as other Nintendo characters, but there's still overlap. if Mega Man keeps it close with Mario, you can rub it in my face or whatever to make yourself feel good. I'll gladly admit that I was wrong. if Mario beats Mega Man cleanly like I expect, I'm not going to do the same thing. I simply don't care to have a e-peen contest, sorry. please stop with the hostility. --- xyzzy |
Sora/Bowser - LeonhartFour L-Block/Charizard - KamikazePotato Samus/Sub-Zero - Luis Jecht/Zelda - FantasyFreak999 Cloud/Falcon - Luster Soldier Leon/Ryu - Biolizard Snake/Pikachu - paulg Auron/Squall - LeonhartFour Sephiroth/Missingno - War Big Daddy/Tifa - Justin_Crossing Wait, when did this sign-up topic go up? Damnit, how did I miss another one? --- CB8 score: 123 Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow. |
I
don't intend to brag, no matter what happens. I've only ever tried to
argue that the possibility of the upset is there, which annoys the crap
out of me when people just go "Nope, it's impossible, you're wrong, go
away." --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Where is the analysis for Bowser/Sora? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
I've
only ever tried to argue that the possibility of the upset is there,
which annoys the crap out of me when people just go "Nope, it's
impossible, you're wrong, go away." this is exactly what you're doing though. I don't agree with you and you won't accept it. I'm fine with you believing that Mega Man has a shot and have not talked down to you at all. if someone elsewhere did this, then sorry, but it doesn't have anything to do with me. --- xyzzy |
Yeah,
upon further reflection, you didn't really say anything bad. I think I
was tired of dealing with the stats topic, came in here. Then Kleenex
exacerbated the situation. I apologize for overreacting to your
statements. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
I only did it because you were getting so wound up for no reason! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I asked this question in the stats topic, so I'll throw it out here... Zack Fair vs. Big Boss: Who you got and by how much? --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Zack Fair, 51-49. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it! --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
From: LeonhartFour | #028 Hail pie chartz and diagrams Mind you, as Mario's biggest supporter in 2k5, I think those pie chartz and diagrams don't really apply to Mega Man. It's freaking Mario doesn't work with everything, sorry. I don't like Mega Man's chances much, but it's not really the same situation, either. Sorry. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Also
I'd just like to say by earlier arguments presented in the thread it's
clear NGamer and I are the only ones still worth listening to! Being Alive and all that! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Zack Fair vs. Big Boss: Who you got and by how much? Big Boss manhandles Zack with 55%+ --- No match for KrahenProphet's extreme Guru skills. |
definitely
big boss for me. mega man's got the best win with hayabusa this year
though, though I still think that's picture-related. --- xzy |
Big
Boss vs. Zack depends entirely on what pic Big Boss gets. If he gets a
Naked Snake pic, he wins. If he gets a Portable Ops/old man/anything
besides Naked Snake, he loses. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Portable Ops is Naked Snake. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-25.jpg Portable Ops pic, which is generally considered his best available pic. And Peace Walker Big Boss still got nearly 37% on Mario, which might be good enough to beat Zack Fair, who got 38.34% on Mega Man. Just depends on how Mario/Mega Man plays out. Plus, I don't necessarily think the old man pic hurts him very much anyway. He would've gotten 1st place in round 2 in 2008 if Raiden hadn't been there with an old man pic. Of course, it's entirely possible he still could've advanced anyway if he'd gotten a Naked Snake pic instead, but that's a mystery we'll never know. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
For our purposes, let's say Big Boss gets the pic he had against Mario. I'd probably take Big Boss in that one. I believe Leonhart said Zack would need to beat Big Boss with ~51.25% in order for Mario/Mega Man to be equals, so that'd fit in with about what I expect in their match next round based on what we've seen thus far. If Mario pulls out his Nintendo-card and Mega Man accepts the payment though, it could be considerably worse...I figure it'll go 54-46'ish for Mario. You can't entirely rule out a beating like we're seeing today just because of the pic though...and if Mario couldn't slam the SFF-hammer down on Falco or Ike while MMX outdid Mega Man against Link in 2004, it's hard to expect Mario to SFF Mega Man much. It'll be a fun match. Go Mega Man! --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
The
best thing about the Mario/Mega Man match will probably be the pics.
I've already seen some pretty awesome match pics made for that one. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
By 'Portable Ops' I meant something like this: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=12&pos=72 Basically any pic where Big Boss looks less like himself and more like a Solid Snake ripoff is one that will be more beneficial to him. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
That's Peace Walker. Portable Ops Snake IS Naked Snake. That pic in the Kirby match is what he looks like the entire game. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Well I never played the PSP MGS games so how I would I know! --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
I haven't either! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Spoilers they aren't very good --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Heart Division: Round 3 - Match 103 – (1) Sora vs. (4) Bowser Moltar’s Analysis Sora Round 1 - 63.63% vs. Midna Round 2 - 67.75% vs. Laharl Really Sora? That’s all you got? Bowser Round 1 - 63.22% vs. Frog Round 2 - 61.68% vs. Kefka For a minute there, that almost looked bad. Man, how the tides have turned for this match. Pre-Contest, Sora was the big favorite. And then… Sora looked okay against Midna Bowser looked decent against Frog Sora looked terrible against Laharl Bowser looked okay against Kefka (Squall looks bad against Terra) Bowser looked great against Kefka And then you’ve got Riku losing to Falcon, Roxas getting beat down by Sub-Zero, Axel getting killed by Dante who lost to Ryu, anything from Old-Square looking good, new Square not impressing, and Mario characters looking good. And then…I…knew At this point, Sora is the underdog. Everything in this Contest has pointing to him losing this match. Hell, even it being a night match is a big disadvantage! Sora is awful at night (and may explain why he’s looked not great so far) while Bowser is decent. After everything we’ve seen so far, I just can’t go with Sora and feel confident here. Moltar’s Bracket: Sora > Bowser Moltar’s Prediction: Sora: 49% - Bowser: 51% Lopen’s Analysis I feel bad. After like 100 matches, I'm awfully burnt out. Sora gets slammed by the night vote but California bails him out in a close one. But Bowser has Nintendo in his corner which will end up being all mighty. Together these two combine to generate SFF, LFF, but not FF, and we see through the last place factor that Laharl and Neku overperformed against Sora. Meanwhile, Kefka wasn't hampered by the lettuce factor and Frog is on the decline due to a steady decrease in the use of the arcade classic, Frogger. I also kinda don't think people actually read these. I'm no better. I'm sad to admit it, but in the last round I've read about 20% of the analyses, at best. You may have caught on, but Instead of actually analyzing this match I'm really just doing my best Mimic Daravon impersonation. Yes, the one from FFT that puts people to sleep. It's a social experiment. Anyway, as I was saying, Sora underperformed against fodder and there's the fodder killing factor (hereby known as FKF) to take into account. Assuming Laharl = 2k3 Ganondorf, you have Sora at 51% on Base Link, adjusting for SFF. That doesn't really matter, though, because taking Terra through Auron, and assuming a reverse Mother Brain->Samus relationship between the strengths of Terra and Kefka, Kefka is at about 44% on Base Link, so Bowser's well over 51% on Base Link. Meaning Bowser wins this one pretty easily. So in short, Sora stomps with his big feet, but Bowser is ready. Sora just ain't on that level-- Bowser's best 1v1 performances just dwarf Sora's. Beating Ryu 60-40 don't mess. Just a gut match-- I have Sora in my bracket but I just like Bowser to win here. Maybe because it's a night match? Maybe because Yoshi looked so good against MissingNo and Luigi vs Cube? I dunno. Lopen's prediction: Bowser with 50.44% Transience’s Analysis Okay, here it is: the match that may determine the contest. It's either this or Missingno. Pre-contest, Sora looked like the favourite, and quite honestly, he probably still should be. Sora beat Yoshi handily despite Squall being in the poll last year, and Yoshi could probably hang with Bowser these days. Bowser's been on a hilarious freefall over the last 2 or 3 years. However, since then: |
-
Bowser's had Bowser's Inside Story, probably the most liked DS game of
2009. I don't care what the polls say, Mario RPG is never going to have
the same kind of pull as a Pokemon or a Zelda. But as far as a game
that got universal praise, it's hard to top Mario RPG. Oh, and did I
mention that Bowser is the runaway star in it? Bowser hasn't had a game
that he's really starred in since the original Mario RPG, and even then
he's just a random character. In BIS, he's the absolute star; not even
Mario can compare. - Bowser's performances have been better than Sora's: Sora gets 68% on Laharl while Bowser gets 62% on a seemingly boosted Kefka. Bowser gets the same percentage on Frog as Sora does on Midna. At worst, it's a tossup; at best, Bowser has had the better matches. - Kingdom Hearts has overall not really looked that great. Roxas had a new game and looked pretty average despite it being the supposed DS GOTY. (The only reason it was was because of triple Nintendo SFF) Axel got slammed by Dante, losing worse to him than he did to Mega Man in 2006, and Dante then lost to Ryu. Riku lost to Captain Falcon. - This is a night match. Sora is one of the worst night characters we have, second only to Master Chief. Bowser, on the other hand, is not your normal Nintendo character: he's actually good at night. - And lastly, I've never gotten the feeling that Sora was an elite character. I always felt like he had good performances but that, when the going got tough, he'd fold. I felt this way about Dante ever since that loss to Yoshi; I put faith in him and he goes and loses to Ryu in a match that never should have been close. I just don't trust Sora. Add in that there's a lot of reasons not to like Sora right now and I'm absolutely backing Bowser. He's sucked lately but I trust him more than I do Sora. transience's prediction: Bowser with 53.19% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Here it is, the match I've been hyping the longest! And frankly... I'm more confident in my Bowser Upset Wagon now than ever! Love the sprite, love the Night Match, love the way Nintendo and old school characters have looked, and certainly love what Captain Falcon showed us a little while back. Yup, give me the Koopa King- though I still think it's close. Ngamer Says: Bowser > Sora, 50.39% Kleenex’s Analysis Well, this is it. After three days of boring, we finally get some matches. I'm not going to try to justify my picks for either of these, just because there's really no logic behind them. Just kinda taking shots in the dark here. Lots of people have been down on Sora after his first two rounds, but I'm not really enthralled with Bowser's either, so that doesn't do much for me. Sora's night is worse than Bowser's, but not really by the much. They're both pretty mediocre in the Europe block, then rock it once the day vote comes. And they both probably pretty close in strength. So what do you do here? I'm going to pick with my bracket and cross my fingers. There's definitely room for a Bowser upset here, but I feel like Sora's a slight favorite. Bracket: Sora Favorites: Bowser Prediction: Sora with 50.47% Red Sox’s Analysis Here it is, the......match of round 3? Well, no, but it's the 2nd most important match of round 3, behind Sephiroth/Missingno. Before the contest I took Sora and felt quite confident in it- after all, Sora was stronger in 2006 and had continued to look stronger than Bowser every year since then. As of now, if I could choose again, I think I'd go with Bowser. |
All
the Kingdom Hearts characters have looked from bad to awful so far this
contest. Axel barely broke 30% on Dante, who then lost to Ryu, Riku
lost handily to Captain Falcon, and Sora posted an okay 63% on Midna
before an awful 68% on Laharl. It appears the KH cast has fallen off a
long way from their 2006 highs, when they were riding KH2 excitement.
Sora's handled the decline better than his supporting cast, but it
looks like he hasn't been immune either. Meanwhile, Bowser posted an okay 63% on Frog and then 62% on Kefka, both during the day. That wouldn't look particularly impressive given how awful Frog and Kefka are during the day, but then Terra put up 35.5% on Squall and suddenly Bowser's percentage on Kefka looked really good. If you believe that Kefka is still stronger than Terra, and that seems very likely, then Bowser looks uncomfortably close to Squall- perhaps closer than Sora. What really makes things look bad for Sora is that this is a night match. Before the contest, I knew this would be a liability but did not realize just how huge of a liability it was. I thought that since Bowser was also a day oriented character, the effect would be around a 1% difference off what a 24 hour match would look like. Creativename ran some numbers a couple days ago off the Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match that shows the difference between day Sora and night Sora is around 56-44, in other words, 3% difference between a night match and a 24-hour match. Sora was only ahead of Bowser by 3% in 2006. Since then, while Bowser has fallen off with the general Deboost, Sora's probably fallen off worse. Bowser even has a possible Bowser's Inside Story boost. With all that said, I think Sora's still got a good shot at this- butBowser deserves to be the favorite. Prediction: Bowser with 51.32% Upset Potential: 40% Upper Bound: Bowser with 55% Lower Bound: Sora with 53% Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart This is one of the biggest matches of the contest. A lot is riding on the line with this one. While the winner isn’t guaranteed to beat Charizard and win the division, Sora or Bowser be the favorite to win at least, so this is a big match for people whose brackets are still alive. This is also a big match for Sora and Bowser. Sora has looked like a near elite since Kingdom Hearts II came out, but he’s yet to really capture a big win over an elite opponent. Not to mention, Kingdom Hearts characters haven’t looked the best this year, so Sora’s got something to prove in that regard as well. On the other hand, Bowser had a great year in 2005 riding off of a Villains Contest high, but he has failed to look anywhere near that level since then. He got rocked pretty hard by Crono in 2006 even in a year that Chrono Trigger was on a decline. He failed to beat Ryu in two attempts in 2007 after putting up 59% on him in 2005. He got LFF’d pretty hard by Luigi in 2008, which would seem to indicate he’s lost a bit of a step in the NINTENDO HIERARCHY. This is a chance to reestablish himself as one of the contest’s elite. Neither character has really shined in this contest. Bowser has done about as expected, getting two low 60s victories over Frog and Kefka. Sora did fine in his first match against Midna, but he really struggled against Laharl in round two. I don’t know if I really take a lot from that match with Laharl though because Sora’s always been one of those characters who has a hard time getting a high number on fodder characters, even in 2006 when he scored 45%+ on Mega Man. I’d give an advantage to Bowser based strictly on this year, but not by much. |
I
think Sora’s been a step ahead of Bowser ever since 2006. He got 45%+
on Mega Man in 2006 while Bowser got 42-43% on Crono. Sora had two
solid runs in both 4-ways contests while Bowser had two disappointing
showings. I’m sure a lot of people won’t think much of this match, but
the way Sora beat Yoshi in round 2 in 2008 really impressed me. A lot
of us expected Yoshi to advance in that match because Yoshi was
supposed to be the character doing the LFFing to Fox while Sora was the
character being LFF’d by Squall, and Square LFF is generally a lot
rougher than Nintendo LFF is. Sora beat Yoshi with 55.78% of the vote
there. Now has Sora dropped enough, has Bowser risen enough, is Yoshi
far enough below Bowser, or a combination of the three there to allow
Bowser to beat Sora? I don’t know. It may not matter. That match just
sticks out to me there. But the main thing that concerns me with Sora in this match is the fact that it’s at night. If this were a day match, I wouldn’t be worried about Sora at all, but the Kingdom Hearts night vote is awful. Bowser’s won’t be much better, but he’ll have the Mario Morning Vote, which is top notch, in addition to the Power Hour, where he should excel. If Sora can survive that first hour (or even be in the lead), I’d feel pretty good about his chances. Plus, I think Sora’s performance against Midna was better than people are giving him credit for. Midna basically went 50/50 with Mewtwo back in 2008. A lot of people question the legitimacy of that match, but Sora got 63.63% against Midna and Ganondorf got 58.65% against Mewtwo, which is a pretty big gap. Ganondorf is generally considered stronger than Bowser as well. Was the Midna/Mewtwo match that much of a fluke? I don’t know. We shall see. (And yes, I know there are plenty of arguments to be made in favor of Bowser, but this writeup is already way too long and I’m sure others will cover that, so we’ll cut it short here! And despite the fact that this writeup was pro-Sora, that’s because I believe he’ll win, not because I want him to win!) Leonhart’s Vote: The KING OF AWESOME, Bowser Koopa Leonhart’s Anticipation Level: Very, very high. Should be a good one. Leonhart’s Prediction: Sora with 50.64% Crew Consensus: Two people are still on the Sora Train, but the majority has boarded the Bowser Ship. |
THIS IS IT MOLTAR ARE YOU PREPARED --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
The King of Awesome got this ****. --- Thank you for assuming the party escort submission position |
SHOWTIME --- It may be insulting, but it's the truth! Now this is entertainment! |
I knew we'd back Bowser. I feel so bad about this. screw you crew --- xyzzy |
Hopefully the crew backs Charizard too !! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #087 PREPARE TO FALL KLEENEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEX AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Mario > Ike (118/144) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Me and Kleenex against the world? ...I'm not sure how I feel about this! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
hey KP stop invoking the Crew Curse when it doesn't apply! --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Sensing
another Vivi/Altair situation here. Vivi was the big favorite
pre-contest, but the Crew ended up siding with Altair, and...you know
the rest. Actually, I guess Kingdom Hearts/Castlevania in the Series Contest would be a great example! --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Bowser time --- xyzzy |
Time for Bowser to do what he's been doing ever since 2006: Disappoint --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Sora time --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
