GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7
Hello once again! For those who are new here, the Contest Analysis Crew is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. Wish us luck, because we'll need it. Anyway, Introduction time! *On the morning of January 14th, three witches are sitting in a small room enjoying their Tea Party.* Moltar: So, did you two hear? It’s that time of the year again. Lopen: …Indeed, a new game is about to begin. What is the gameboard like this time? Moltar: It’s back to 1-on-1, this time, with 128 characters! Sounds interesting, riiiiiiight? I can’t wait to determine the results using my magic! Lopen: …Hmph, such a child you are, Moltar. Your magic means nothing. The results are determined by the voters. Moltar: Hoh! So you want to challenge me again, Lopen? I’ll create all the results, and you won’t be able to explain them with voters! They will be so unpredictable that everyone will be forced to accept my magic! The number of votes I can create are endless! I am the Voting Witch, Master Moltar! Lopen: …Very well, I, the Witch of Upsets, Lopen, accept your challenge. I don’t expect to be bored. Tran: Hey you two! What are you talking about! Let me in! Let me in! Moltar: It’s another game between Lopen and I. Will you be supporting me again, Tran? Tran: Naaaah, I’m tired of you, Moltar. And I would never be on Lopen’s side! Therefore, I, the Witch of Locks, Transience, will make my own side! Lopen: …Make your own side? I see you’re still a child too, Tran. At least you won’t make me bored though. Tran: Hehe, I love you Lopen! You’re so <cute>! Moltar: I want to invite someone in on this little game between us. Come forth, my finest servant, Ngamer. Ngamer: Ngamer here, at your service, Master Moltar. Moltar: Do you wish to participate in this game with us? Ngamer: Very well, I, Ngamer, will join. Let me warn you though, I am pretty good and figuring out the true results, pukuku. Lopen: …I see, now this is even more interesting. I shall bring a guest too. Kleenex, where are you? Kleenex: I’m right here, Lopen! Lopen: You will participate in this game as well. If you win, I’ll promote you to the rank of a Witch. You can be the Witch of Facts. *giggle* Kleenex: <Good>. That would be an honor! I, the great detective, KleenexTissue, will do my best! My skills are first-rate! Tran: Hey you two! I want to bring someone in too! Um…um…oh I know! I’ll bring in your teacher! Moltar: My teacher? You don’t mean- Tran: Hey red sox, get out here! Red Sox: Yes, Transience? Tran: You’re also going to join our game! I want you to do your best and beat your student. Red Sox: Is that alright with you, Moltar? Moltar: That fine with me! The more the merrier! I’ll make all of you submit to my voting magic! Red Sox: Very well, I, Red Sox, will also join the game. It’ll be more productive than spending time with and constantly getting teased by G- Moltar: Oh, there’s more thing. There will be more people joining us. Arise, Guests! Lopen: …The Guests? They aren’t exactly…the brightest, you know. Tran: Yeah! What’s up with that? They’re as dumb as Goats! Moltar: I think you two will be surprised. They can be really clever sometimes! One guest will also participate in each match of our game. Moltar: Anyway, I hope everyone is ready! I’ve already made a certain man lose the will to fight against me, and now it’s your turn! Prepare to submit to my Endless Voting magic, Readerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *glass breaks* |
E-mail: mastermoltar@gmail.com Current Guests Sora/Bowser - LeonhartFour L-Block/Charizard - KamikazePotato Samus/Sub-Zero - Luis Jecht/Zelda - FantasyFreak999 Cloud/Falcon - Luster Soldier Leon/Ryu - Biolizard Snake/Pikachu - paulg Auron/Squall - LeonhartFour Sephiroth/Missingno - War Big Daddy/Tifa - Justin_Crossing --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Mario > Ike (118/144) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Mushroom Division: Round 3 - Match 102 – (3) Mega Man vs. (7) Ryu Hayabusa Moltar’s Analysis Mega Man Round 1 - 63.04% vs. Cid Round 2 - 61.66% vs. Zack ZackFAQs dead Ryu H. Round 1 - 61.79% vs. Crash Round 2 - 52.56% vs. Master Chief lol MC Gotta give Ryu props for beating MC, especially after his showing against Crash. However, he’s hit a brick wall now. Mega Man has been beasting this Contest, and even sprite MMX held up against Link. MM’s sprite should crush Ryu’s…whatever that is…right here. I’d also take both Cid and Zack over Ryu H, sooooooo Moltar’s Bracket: MM > Ryu H. Moltar’s Prediction: MM: 66% - Ryu H.: 34% Lopen’s Analysis Fun Fact: I have Master Chief winning here. Fun Fact 2: I gave up on that after seeing round 1. I think Hayabusa ends up looking good here. Real good. Chief was no doubt weaker than usual this year, but beating MC is still Hayabusa's greatest feat. Will it put the match in doubt? Not a chance. But I think it'll be cool to see Hayabusa outdo his performance from Zero from way back when on Mega Man here. Of course, this'll make people call for Mega Man's head on a platter. Not because they want an Extra Life, but because people are ADD like that. Lopen's prediction: Mega Man with 61.59% Transience’s Analysis Hahaha, Ryu Hayabusa in the sprite round. That's a half step away from the Solid Snake pics we've had to suffer through for the last seven years. Mega Man was going to put a hurting on Hayabusa before, but now it's just going to be painful. Hayabusa always finds a way to end up bombing before the contest is over and this time it will be at the hands of the Blue Bomber. Bring on Sora/Bowser! transience's prediction: Mega Man with 64.55% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: The MM series has been on roids, this is Mega Man's best picture ever, and Ryu... is sporting a look that earned 6% of the vote in its last poll. A recipe for a doubling if I ever saw one! Ngamer Says: Mega Man > Ryu H, 66.74% Kleenex’s Analysis Time for the 6th boring match in a row. This the (hopefully) the last in that series, but that doesn't make it any better. Ryu's pretty tough, but he's never been at Mega Man level and still isn't. This is compounded by the fact that he has a completely terrible picture up against some classic Mega Man sprite. Any overperformance that Ryu could have pulled here is completely negated by this, so it's just another round 3 snoozefest. Let's go Sora/Bower. Bracket: Mega Man Favorites: Mega Man Prediction: Mega Man with 60.05% Red Sox’s Analysis Here's another fairly boring match, though it will tell us a good deal more information than Mario vs. Ike. Hayabusa was about equal to Zero last year, who's probably worth over 40% on Megaman. Yet, this is the sprite round and Megaman has a major picture advantage here, so MM will probably go well over 60%. Further, Hayabusa probably isn't on Zero's level anymore, or was never on Zero's level. Prediction: Megaman with 64.00% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Megaman with 69% Lower Bound: Megaman with 59% |
Guest’s Analysis - Black Turtle Mega Man Aww yeah Blue Bomber kicking all kinds of ass! Watch out Mario! Ryu Hayabusa He's overdue for his second round collapse this year Analysis: A battle of the faces of the best and third best NES platforming series, this seemingly boring match could have far reaching implications. With the way Mega Man and his cast-mates have been performing so far this year, it seems as though Mega Man > Mario is no longer a pipe dream, but is actually an (amazing) potential upset. A lot of people are lowballing Mega Man here, thinking mid-high 60's is where he'll land, but this is silly for several reasons. First of all, Snake had no trouble breaking 73% on Hayabusa in the 4-ways, and with Snake looking like he's somewhat back to earth, Mega Man would probably get 47-48% on Snake now. Secondly, we have sprite round Hayabusa for (I believe) the first time, and it's no secret that most of his strength comes from his recent 3-D showings. Add that to the fact that Mega Man always seems to impress in the sprite round (leading Samus with Yoshi for over an hour!) and the fact that Mega Man 10 was released on Wii last week. We'll also get our first taste of non-loleuropefail day match Mega Man, which unfortunately doesn't carry over to round 4. This should be a massive overperformance that will be sounding the alarm bells for round 4. Mega Man is more likely to break 75% than he is to go under 70%. And what a glorious sight it will be! TuRtLe's Prediction: Mega Man with 76.43% TuRtLe's Bracket: Mega Man > Hayabusa TuRtLe's Vote: WAR MEGA MAN! Crew Consensus: Mega Buster to Ryu Hayabusa’s face |
From: Master Moltar | #003 Lopen = Ed Bellis? --- Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING |
Ed Bellis would have Master Chief>Zack for this round! --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Ed Bellis is a poseur. I'm the original master of bad upsets! ... also damn I keep forgetting it's the sprite round in these analyses. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
If
I'd remembered it was the damn sprite round I probably would've been
the only other one in contention for a point, here, though I wouldn't
have gone quite that high considering Ryu's pic isn't terrible --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
We'll
also get our first taste of non-loleuropefail day match Mega Man, which
unfortunately doesn't carry over to round 4. This should be a massive
overperformance that will be sounding the alarm bells for round 4. Mega
Man is more likely to break 75% than he is to go under 70%. And what a
glorious sight it will be! Glorious indeed! |
hey, noice, I get accuracy point for Mario/Ike --- Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 17th Today's prediction: Mega Man - 66.09% Status: meh |
Holy crap. Mega Man > Mario --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
yeah, I almost went to 70% because of this picture. this is maybe worse than sprite Snake. Mega Man > Mario is even more of a pipe dream than Samus > Mario at this point --- xyzzy |
Tell that to the stats topic ! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
don't wanna read the stats topic right now --- xyzzy |
We need something to look forward to in round 4 because there aren't any other potentially interesting matches left there! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Squall/Snake ! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Man, not even I believe Squall has a chance at winning that one! ...Unless he goes 57-60%+ on Auron, that is! No SFF there, no sir! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Zelda Wii starring Samus, Samus > Mario aw yeah --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
yeah, I remember people talking up Squall > Snake because of the Tidus beatdown! --- xyzzy |
Plus,
this was before we realized what kind of a monster Snake was going to
be in 2006! The only character he faced before Squall was Soma Cruz,
after all. Squall 2006 > Snake 2005 I will go to the grave believing this --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
...did anyone really think that MM could beat Mario nowadays? --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
From: transience | #013 this is the worst revisionist post-match damage control I have seen in a long time --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Actually,
wait, I just noticed that your second line had Samus>Mario as some
sort of pipe dream instead of the expected result like it was. Just a
terrible post all-around. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
go away --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=57 Enjoy. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
KP what are you even talking about --- xyzzy |
Seeing Lopen with a #1 Oracle pick...I never know what to think about that, but it definitely means a match was pretty awesome. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Well
for one, you said that this pic is worse for Hayabusa than Solid ****
is for Snake. Really? Do I need to bring up Solid **** pictures? This
pic is about 10x better than that. Anything is 10x better than that. Second, I'm surprised anyone outside of Ulti actually calls Samus>Mario a pipe dream. That was *not* an obvious match, no matter what the outcome was. Anyone calling it so is just employing revisionist history. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
I mean Samus > Mario now you sillyhead this picture is about as bad for Hayabusa as Snake's NES picture is for him. --- xyzzy |
Anyone
who took Samus to win should not be calling Mario > Samus obvious!
And most people who took Mario to win shouldn't be calling it obvious
either, since very few people were actually completely confident in
Mario back then. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
I don't think I've ever seen anyone bring up Samus>Mario in a direct match since the original happened. Indirectly, maybe. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=8&pos=53 You're really carrying the current pic to that? The current pic is actually decent. He's holding a sword, he looks like a ninja. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
Oh, Mario/Samus now. Well carry on then, but MM > Mario has a way higher chance of happening now than Samus > Mario. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
Hayabusa's
a lot more dependent on his image than Snake is, honestly. If he
doesn't look like uber-cool ninja, he's going to suffer. But I'm okay with that, because it puts Yuna above Master Chief in the stats three years after he doubled her! Kekekekekeke --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
I'll have you know that I took Mario in that match and was never worried about it. Granted, I had no knowledge of the any kind of statistics at that point, but still! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I'd
say that they're about equally unrecognizable to people who only know
the modern games, yeah. Snake's is a little worse but he's got far more
name recognition than Hayabusa does. --- xyzzy |
Also. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=8&pos=53 GBC sprite. Not NES. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Snake's
is a *lot* worse. Let's not mince words. Hayabusa gets by on being a
cool ninja, and his pic looks like a cool ninja. It's not nearly as bad
as you people are making it out to be. However much it's hurting him,
it's going to be less than whatever SFF Mario laid down on Ike. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
so you think Mega Man has a shot at Mario? I'll go with 60%+. and Mega Man is my favourite character in this thing. --- xyzzy |
60% would be pretty incredible. I'd go with more like 51-52% for Mario......meaning a Megaman upset isn't out of the question. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi |
60% is probably a bit extreme. I think I'll probably end up going with 55-56 or so. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Uh,
there's a good number of people who think he has a shot at Mario.
Actually, there seem to be two camps: the first camp, that think the
match is debatable but Mario is the favorite, and the second camp,
which just repeat IT'S FREAKING MARIO nauseum. If Mario wins, the
second camp will go "I told you so!", as if it was entirely obvious
when it...wasn't, at all. If Mario loses, they will shrug and downplay
the result, going "No one could have seen that coming!" So what I think I'm trying to say is I'll see you all for Sora/Bowser. --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
wow, people are that confident in Mega Man? against Mario? this isn't a straight up strength match, the KING OF SFF is going to have his way with Mega Man. that's why I brought up Samus. --- xyzzy |
Good, you can leave and go be wrong somewhere else. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: transience | #045 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3279 --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #046 Kleenex’s Analysis Prediction: Mega Man with 60.05% --- http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg best sig bet EVER |
"it's
freaking Mario" is all that's needed here, because it's Mega Man.
unless you're Link, I'm not giving a Nintendo character a shot at
Mario, and Mega Man is pretty much Nintendo. I learned that lesson
after I backed Samus in 2005. --- xyzzy |
lol KP --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
