GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
I really doubt he does that to Samus in 2004 though. He might win in 2004, but that match sure ain't a blowout. The problem is that Samus needs to win with 56% or more in 2004 in order for rSFF not to happen. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
I
agree, hierarchies in general are pretty dumb. Nintendo and Square are
the only companies with an apparent hierarchy at all, and not only is
it already based on strength like you said. I don't think we've ever
seen definitive evidence of another company having a hierarchy spanning
across various series -- I don't believe it for Capcom and can't recall
any other possible examples off-hand, anyway. Still, Mario/Samus is the
single best example of a hierarchy and has given us fear about the idea
for other companies since. That match really was one of the most important matches for our contests. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
But, as it is now, Dante is still winning this with a DMC2 pic. It's certainly not breaking him here. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
From: ZFS | #047 You're assuming that everybody that votes in this match is a huge fan of either character. Dumb assumption. People on the fence are the ones who get swayed by the match pic, and people who actually know both characters but are on the fence will definitely go Ryu here if they were ever going to go with him. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
...She doesn't have to because Mario isn't 10% stronger than her. Mario got 60-40 on Samus in 2005. She has to make that up in a year. Do the math --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
The problem is that Samus needs to win with 56% or more in 2004 in order for rSFF not to happen. ...Why? We still don't even know that rSFF exists. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
I'm
not assuming that, and I made an argument for Ryu based on people being
fans of both / not being the biggest fan of Dante. I just don't believe
that giving him a DMC3 or DMC4 pic would make this match any different
right now. He'd still be winning by slim margins, with the result still
totally in doubt. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
From: Lopen | #055 Man, this isn't a conventional match where you can look at it like that! Mario swung 7% on Crono in 1 year anyway. All Samus has to do is resist SFF (and if she's stronger than him, she should), and that's a close match. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
She
was projected to get 56% on Mario through fair matches in 2004. So, if
she had failed to hit that mark on him in that year, there would be
evidence for rSFF. If you don't think rSFF can ever exist, you're
forced to the conclusion that Samus would have, indeed, gotten 56% on
Mario in 2004. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
I'm not assuming that Oh? but if Dante's fans need him to have a pic from anything but DMC2 to vote for him Seems to me you are. I'm talking about people who are familiar with Dante but not sure on who to vote. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Mario
2005 is completely and totally different from Mario 2004. You can't
even make a comparison between those two. We can sit here all day and
say "Mario beats Samus no doubt in 2004, no question, you can look at
how he beat her one year later WHEN EVERYTHING WAS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
as proof!" That doesn't make sense to me. That's hindsight bias. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
All Samus has to do is resist SFF (and if she's stronger than him, she should), and that's a close match. I don't see why she would. You can't say that becoming 1% stronger on the X-Stats makes her swing 10% on Mario. That makes no sense. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Hindsight
bias? That's why the vast majority of the people who took Mario in 2005
took him in the first place. People weren't expecting a huge Mario
boost out of nowhere, and if they were expecting a Nintendo boost, they
generally weren't expecting a Nintendo boost that excluded Samus.
People took Mario over Samus in 2005 because they thought he would have
won in 2004. The whole Crono > Mario > Samus > Crono ABCA loop
was discussed for months. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
From: Lopen | #062 Maybe not, but this is a bigger swing than 1%, for one thing. And again, comparing Mario 2004 and Mario 2005 is a bad idea in the first place. Mario pre-site shift and Mario post-site shift are totally different. That match isn't going to happen the same way. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
I
know why people took Mario in 2005, but to use that match as proof that
he beats Samus in 2004 just doesn't sit right with me because it wasn't
the same Mario and it wasn't the same site demographic. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
It
won't happen in the same way, I agree. But 10%. That's more than any
character has come close to swinging in a year, and for little to no
reason aside from a supposed "site shift." --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Hey guys stop arguing Dante's pulling away --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Anyone
who votes for Dante with any regularity is someone I'd consider a Dante
fan. I'm not talking about the hardcore Dante freaks who would vote for
him no matter what pic, if any pic, or opponent he had. There are a
whole host of reasons why people who aren't big fans of Dante would
vote for Ryu, and all of them are as applicable, if not moreso, in this
match than the fact that he got a pic from DMC2 -- one that doesn't
even look that bad. It's just a silly to me, especially when he's
winning. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
10% with SFF. You're still assuming Mario SFFs her and even rSFFs in a big way. That's where I can't agree. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Anyone who votes for Dante with any regularity is someone I'd consider a Dante fan. And I'm not talking about these people. Just because you're familiar with Dante doesn't mean you vote him most of the time. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Just because you're familiar with Dante doesn't mean you vote him most of the time. Let's be honest here. Anyone who is familiar with Dante and doesn't vote for him most of the time is a jerk. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
10% with SFF. And you're assuming it goes away. Why? Guess what, we've never seen a 10% swing in a SFF match either! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #071 Well I can't deny this. But 2% of the voting base being jerks would be an underestimation by my count! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Lopen | #072 We don't see SFF matches more than once very often, thankfully! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Not
10%. 15%! Mario's strength boost relative to Samus was around 7% at the
most, if you believe Crono didn't fall at all and Samus didn't boost at
all. It makes no sense to me that his SFF ability would change that
much more than his strength. If Mario/Samus is a 51/49 match and Mario
SFFs Samus to 60/40, by flipping the natural strength to 51/49 in favor
of Samus, you wouldn't seriously expect all that SFF ability to
disappear, would you? After seeing Mario/Samus 2008, I can probably buy the idea that Samus could have won in 2004, but getting 56%, the number she was supposed to get on him indirectly, seems absurd. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
If
Mario/Samus is a 51/49 match and Mario SFFs Samus to 60/40, by flipping
the natural strength to 51/49 in favor of Samus, you wouldn't seriously
expect all that SFF ability to disappear, would you? In a match that close, you're in tossup territory where stats don't matter very much anyway (like this match). Samus being 55/45 on Mario like she was in 2004 though? Yeah, that SFF ability isn't going to be anywhere near that level. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
From: LeonhartFour | #074 So basically you're saying because I can't prove it doesn't happen, Mario will magically swing more than anyone has swung before? Man I see an awesome opening for a joke in poor taste there but I won't take it! Where's Ulti when I need him. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
And I'm not talking about these people. Just because you're familiar with Dante doesn't mean you vote him most of the time. I'm curious -- how many people do you think change their vote from Ryu to Dante if we give him a DMC3 pic? --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
I'm curious -- how many people do you think change their vote from Ryu to Dante if we give him a DMC3 pic? ~1-2% of the vote, maybe. I'm not thinking much, but when the match is this close it doesn't need to be. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
So
basically you're saying because I can't prove it doesn't happen, Mario
will magically swing more than anyone has swung before? Not at all! It's just that we don't know how SFF matches will go across the years! Besides, we've seen Cloud SFF/LFF Sephiroth to varying degrees depending on the match. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
1% is the absolute most I'd give based on this pic, but even that's a bit much for me. Guess we'll agree to disagree on this. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Not
at all! It's just that we don't know how SFF matches will go across the
years! Besides, we've seen Cloud SFF/LFF Sephiroth to varying degrees
depending on the match. I agree we don't know. But we also shouldn't assume that such a huge swing will happen. Ever. The probability of it happening just isn't high, and we've got no evidence to support it does. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
1% is the absolute most I'd give based on this pic, but even that's a bit much for me The thing is, the closer the match is, the more likely it is that it could matter. Do you really see Ryu winning with more than 50.5%? Then if it swung even 0.5% of the voters he'd lose. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I
just think Mario/Samus from 2004 to 2005 is one of those special
exceptions. We usually don't see such huge leaps in strength from one
year to another anyway. Heck, I'm not even saying Samus wins in 2004. I
just don't think it's a gimme. Hmmm...What does Mario 3 do to Mario World in the first Games Contest, you think? --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
(By the way, I know that's not the best example because the matches happened 5 years apart instead of 1 year, but bear with me!) --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Sure,
he might have lost then. Of course, giving Ryu a better pic here to
match up better with DMC3 Dante could reverse the result right back. If
you give Dante and Ryu their absolute best pictures -- which neither of
them have today -- I don't think this match is any different right now.
But yeah, if Ryu wins ever so slightly you could say that Dante's pic
could have been the problem. I don't think it matters to such an extent
that Dante goes from losing with like 49.5% to winning with 51-52%,
though, based on a pic change. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
"I just think it's one of those special exceptions" shouldn't be grounds to think it likely
enough to argue so vehemently for it, though. The percentage swing
you're calling for is still absurd, and if Mario even wins in a close
one there's evidence he SFFed Samus to a significant degree, because
Samus was like 4% "stronger" than Mario in 2004, so I'm not sure what
you're arguing. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
The
difference between Mario 2004 and Mario 2005 is just so ridiculous that
I find it hard to take for granted that Mario just curbstomps Samus
again, especially since I'm not really a proponent of rSFF. That's the
main thing for me. I believe Mario beat Samus in 2005 because he was
stronger, period. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
giving Ryu a better pic here to match up better with DMC3 Dante could reverse the result right back I see nothing wrong with Ryu's pic here. SF4 anti-hype? And uh yeah I don't know about SMB3 v SMW in 2004. Probably somewhat close-- 55-45 in favor of SMB3 I'd guess. 5 years is a lot different than one year though so I don't think I need to bear with you there...! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
What, no SFF for Mario 3? I think there is! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
I really can't believe that people are denying a pic factor here It's just...dumb --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Not SFIV anti-hype, I just don't think this pic of Ryu is that good. It's not horrible, but Dante's pic isn't either. Both just could have done better. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
From: LeonhartFour | #088 I agree he was stronger in 2005. I just don't see any evidence to support that, indirectly, he was that much stronger. Nor do I see any evidence to support Samus turning it around the year previous if she was a little stronger. Basically I think you're overthinking the match in terms of stats and underthinking it in terms of the match itself. Going 60-40 to 50-50 is just hard. You wanna say one getting the slightest bit stronger throws all our SFFs and LFFs and XFFs in the mix for it and makes a huge swing, but I don't think that's a good way to think about it. Just look at the match and forget the factors, and say did Samus (de)boost enough in one year to win that? --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
The pic of Ryu is great. What are you smoking. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Nor do I see any evidence to support Samus turning it around the year previous if she was a little stronger. If she was just a little stronger, fine. She looked a lot better than Mario though. Mario and Samus in 2005 are probably closer than Mario and Samus in 2004. I dunno. Comparing stuff from pre-site shift to post-site shift usually isn't a good idea. Things changed a whole lot in 2005. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Haha,
I'm sure you feel that way! It's pretty good, but Ryu can do better
than this. I'm not making any pic excuses here, don't get me wrong, I
think it's an acceptable pic. Just that if you're going to give Dante a
better one, you could do the same for Ryu, too. The point I'm making
is, giving both better pics doesn't change the result here. Dante is
still winning by slim margins either way -- and making pic excuses
while he's winning, especially from those who were convinced he wrecked
shop today, just seems all kinds of wrong to me. But whatever, we'll
see how this goes, kind of tired of arguing the point. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
And as an example: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1342 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1751 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3278 Hierarchies shift over time, even within the fanbase of the same game. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=634 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2328 Heck, look at the shift for Mario from that poll to the next. The first one was about a year before SC2K2, the other one was about a year after SC2K5. But whatever, this is a pointless argument where nothing can be proven definitively one way or the other because we can't go back to 2004 and have a Mario/Samus match! --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
oh kp --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
It's not like this is a new theory. People have been sounding the alarms since the pic was released. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Dante
fans have been sounding alarms, anyway. Most people don't see the pic
discrepancy that Dante freaks do. Hell, I love Dante and I don't see
the problem. Dude is winning. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
