GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
Yep,
I knew when red sox was the outlier, either he was going to look like a
genius or he was going to look silly! It's hard to tell with that guy
though! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Ezio's got the weirdest trends ever. he's the anti-L-Block --- xyzzy |
Midgar Division: Round 2 - Match 85 – (1) Cloud Strife vs. (8) Chris Redfield Moltar’s Analysis Cloud Round 1 - 71.72% vs. Ridley That’s…not good Chris Round 1 - 68.01% vs. MacMillan This is alright. Cloud didn’t impress in Round 1. In fact, most things FF7 haven’t been impressive. On the other hand, RE has impressed in pretty much every match. Combining those two factors results in what should be a decent performance for Chris here. Also, it’ll be interesting to see how this compares to Samus/Jill. Let’s say that, for now, Cloud is stronger than Samus (keep hope alive for the upset). Jill and Chris are probably close, but I’d give the edge to Jill. That means that Cloud should be looking good for 70% here. Moltar’s Bracket: Cloud > Chris Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud: 70% - Chris: 30% Transience’s Analysis It's time for Cloud to redeem himself. Can he? The first question here: is Chris Redfield stronger than Jill Valentine? I say no. If you think Cloud is stronger than Samus then he should be able to do better on Chris than Samus did on Jill. I don't think Cloud has the ability to murder people anymore though. There seems to be a nasty FF7 backlash -- either it's an anti-vote or FF7 just doesn't have the same pull that it used to. It is rather old at this point, after all. I could see that being the issue here. Samus got 67.52%, so let's go with.. transience's prediction: Cloud with 67.51% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Zack didn't do a ton to restore confidence in FF7, but I see the "favorites not QUITE so anti-voted as in R1" trend continuing, helping boost Cloud back to almost respectability. Ngamer Says: Cloud > Chris, 68.86% Kleenex’s Analysis Time for Our Hero Cloud's second round match. Last round was a disappointment for him, and it's probably going to be a string of them for a while now because of the silly anti-votes. Chris probably doesn't hurt him as much early on as Ridley did, though. This also begs the question, just how strong is Chris in the first place? Ridley was able to hold Cloud down to about 72% last round, so surely Chris should be able to do better, right? Well, I'm not quite convinced of that. There's always the ever present FFVII SFFs anything that had a game on the PS1 thing to take into account (I don't buy this for a second), but Cloud/Chris isn't quite as stark of a contrast as Cloud/Ridley was. The RE crew has impressed for the most part this year, but I'm hesitant to take Chris to be terribly strong. I think he'll probably do better than Ridley did, but not much. Or Cloud will flop and fail to double. Who knows. Bracket: Cloud Favorites: Cloud Prediction: Cloud with 70.70% |
Red Sox’s Analysis After the Games Contest last year, I figured that FFVII had fallen a step based on the degeneration of its day vote. Trends are not the same as strength, but a change in trends implies a change in the demographics of the site- which suggests a change in strength. Before, we've seen games (most notably Chrono Trigger) lose strength when they day votes deteriorated, or their night votes improved. So far this contest, what we've seen from the FFVII characters has mostly backed up that assessment. Cloud looked probably the worst of the lot in round 1- but then, Cloud had other reasons to underperform there, namely the rise of Anti-BlowoutFAQs. I think he probably has fallen a step, but it takes a lot to move a character as strong as Cloud much, in either direction, so he's probably pretty close still to the strength he's had the past few years. That means that no, this Samus > Cloud hype train I've heard people talk about has virtually no chance of success-even if Cloud disappoints us again tonight and people start going wild with the Jill vs. Chris comparisons. Prediction: Cloud with 71.35% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Cloud with 75% Lower Bound: Cloud with 67% Guest’s Analysis - Denzokuken Alright, it's Cloud's turn to step up and show he has what it takes to beat Link this year...or at least break 45% on him. After what some would call an underwhelming performance in the first round, Cloud has had the experts, analysers, gurus and pretty much the whole of board 8 calling for his head. Personally, I think it was pretty respectable, as a good 20% of the site will never vote for Cloud, plus Ridley brings the Nintendo pedigree. I've been preaching that FFVII always looks better against stronger competition; Sephiroth did exactly that against Marth, and I think this is the match where Cloud proves it and silences the doubters. Chris just barely doubled a swamp thang, so he's clearly no hotshot and all shiny big guns. Take those arms away, and Chris just becomes another generic action hero. A generic action hero without any arms; casual bait personified. For what it's worth, he also doesn't have NintendoFAQs to fall back on. So Cloud will crush his casual support, harness the night vote and prove FFVII always comes through when it counts. I'm goin what I think might be quite high here, not out of fanboyism, but because I genuinely believe Strife's going to do something big and prove he's still got it. Let's mosey Cloud! ..err I mean, move out. Prediction: Cloud Strife with 70.77%! Crew Consensus: Cloud casts Meteor and Chris fails to punch the meteor in time. |
Lopen's Analysis The Lopen is sick. The Lopen took The Cloud for two reasons. 1. The Cloud has only ever been beaten by Link. 2. The Chris Redfield is not Link. This to me was good enough for QED. The Lopen then used random.org to generate numbers for Cloud's percentage. Lopen's Prediction: The Cloud with 57.64% (Way to go low-- might just work though after r1) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Just switch the first two numbers! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
If the Lopen was a cheater he would swap the first and the third number. Luckily for the crew he is no such thing --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Lopen | #407 If the Lopen was a cheater he would swap the first and the third number. Luckily for the crew he is no such thing Then tranny would undercut him by .03%! --- That would be extremely hard to take. |
I did randomizer and got 2.97% for Cloud good stuff --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
The Lopen is used to Moltar's price is right shenanigans The Lopen also doesn't realize why feeling sick gives him the urge to type like this --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Well I cheated and locked the first digit at 5-9. Considering I could've gotten 90.x I think the randomizer was kind --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'm sticking with my guns. Cloud to lose in the biggest blowout of all time --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
The Cloud has only ever been beaten by Link. Busted proof, imho. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
The Lopen can't be expected to formulate good proofs in this state. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Lopen | #405 1. The Cloud has only ever been beaten by Link. OBJECTION! I present two articles to the court. Article 1. L-Block Article 2. Snake --- Knockout punch! |
Article 3. Mario --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Screw L-Block and Snake. Article 1 is http://voguerepublic.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/mario.jpg --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I submit to the court that it's 4.35 am in the UK and I have a 5 hour train journey ahead of me. Then a football match, followed by an 80's party. --- Today is going to kill me. |
Fine guys, fine. Lopen's new analysis The Lopen is still sick. The Lopen took The Cloud for two reasons. 1. The Cloud has only ever been beaten by Link* 2. The Chris Redfield is not Link* This to me was good enough for QED. The Lopen then used random.org to generate numbers for Cloud's percentage. Lopen's new prediction: 63.58% for KUROUDU --- *some exceptions may apply, including but not limited to overweight plumber, block, and reptile |
From: Lopen | #407 If the Lopen was a cheater ... he is no such thing From: Lopen | #419 Lopen's new prediction: 63.58% for KUROUDU I am disappoint. --- *shakes head* |
Hey new analysis new random number generation those are the rules sister. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Raitoningu > Kuraudo --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Kuraudo? http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff237/klashikari2/HigurashiKAIepi16044.jpg --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
LOL Chris --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
It's
a little upsetting that someone's avoiding a doubling right now and
we're still LOLing because we know this is going to turn into like 70%+
when all is said and done. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Chris worse than Ridley what a joke I was hopeful for that second roll! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Uh oh looks like Cloud won the board vote ! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #427 Maybe not! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Jecht 56.16% 26156 Ratchet 43.84% 20416 TOTAL VOTES 46572 Zelda 62.11% 47699 Ezio Auditore da Firenze 37.89% 29099 TOTAL VOTES 76798 Crew Predictions - 70/82 What Happened: Jecht beats Ratchet by a fair margin, and then Zelda takes out Ezio in a not-so-impressive style Why it Happened: There's a reason Jecht struggled with Phoenix. Dude isn't strong. Ratchet does look okay this year, but I'm guessing this is more of Jecht being weak. Ezio also looks to be as strong, if not stronger, than Altair. His performance against Zelda was really good. What will Happen: Zelda may have an easier time with Jecht than Ezio. Crew Prediction Challenge - more points Kleenex - 74 Moltar - 74 Tran - 73 Red Sox - 73 Ngamer - 72 Lopen - 69 Guest - 68 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Jecht and Red Sox gets the point for Ezio Ngamer - 16 Moltar - 15.5 Tran - 12 Lopen - 12 Guest - 11.5 (Bio: 1.5, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 3, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 1, War: 1) Red Sox - 9 Kleenex - 6 --- Moltar Status: Prediction: Cloud > Chris (86/104) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I'll admit that the princess didn't exactly impress too much, but... -I would've always picked guys like Alucard and Tidus to break 40% on Zelda, because to my knowledge a mid midcarder is supposed to break 40% on a high midcarder, or else they are a low midcarder or worse. -We need to see Ezio vs. Gordon Freeman. On the other hand: -Simon Belmont > Liquid Snake! |
Midgar Division: Round 2 - Match 86 – (5) Riku vs. (4) Captain Falcon Moltar’s Analysis Riku Round 1 - 62.31% vs. Ramza This was at night too. Falcon Round 1 - 71.13% vs. Wander 70% on Wander who couldn’t do this? After Ramza stunk it up in 2008 (well, Laharl’s good performance against Sora kinda redeems this), Riku’s 62% didn’t seem great. However, that was during Riku’s worst time, and FFT was bound to have a terrible day vote. That was going to get pretty ugly for Ramza, so I believe that Riku is a bit underrated going into this match. That aside, Falcon was looking really good going into their match. All he had to do was kill Wander and put himself as the favorite. Instead, he barely broke 70%. 70% is good, but I wanted to see more, especially since it’s freakin’ Wander. For now, I’m backing Riku in the match still. Being a day match helps both characters, but I believe that helps KH more than it does Falcon seeing as the latter did nothing during the day against his opponent. Plus, Ramza would dismantle Wander, and Riku would have beaten Ramza by more in a day match. He shouldn’t have too much trouble with Falcon here. Moltar’s Bracket: Riku > Falcon Moltar’s Prediction: Riku: 55% - Falcon: 45% Lopen’s Analysis The Lopen still does not feel well, but The Lopen will analyze yet. The Lopen sees no reason to doubt Riku here, despite never counting Captain Falcon's chances out completely. What he did against Ramza was about what The Lopen expected. Captain Falcon did a bit worse than expected against The Wander. Thing is Riku had a night match and Falcon had a day match, so any swing goes Riku's way here. Lopen's prediction Riku with 55.04% Transience’s Analysis True story: When I first filled out my bracket, I picked Falcon. I don't trust Riku, not at all. I also think Falcon has looked surprisingly good the last couple of years. Riku always goes way below my expectations and Falcon goes way above them. Riku couldn't even blow out one of the weakest Square characters we have in Ramza. Falcon put up a nice number against Wander, but it's Wander so who knows what you can take from that. Ultimately, I'm sticking with Riku for two reasons: 1.) Falcon is kinda like Duke Nukem in that he's a manly dude that people have turned into a fad over the years; those kinds of characters are likely to benefit from a fourway format. 2.) This is a day match and, while Falcon's good in the day, Riku's better. transience's prediction: Riku with 54.03% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Ugh, impossible to describe how much it pains me to support KH. I'd be able to justify Falcon in a Night Match, but eh, Riku probably gets bailed out in the afternoon here. Ngamer Says: Riku > Captain Falcon, 50.63% Kleenex’s Analysis Well, I'm 0/4 for debatable matches in Round 2 so far. Let's see if we can make this 1/5. Captain Falcon's a tough guy to gauge. He got tripled by Crono in 2006. Lost to Wario, of all people, in 2007. Then he had a pretty good showing on Alucard last year, and followed it up with a complete wasting of Wander in Round 1 this year. At first glance, those last two performances might be pretty impressive. But I don't think they are. Wander is bottom of the barrel fodder. Hell, he's not even allowed in the fodder barrel, he's underneath it. And 44% on Alucard...well, that's better if you consider him to be significantly hurt by the other Nintendo characters in the poll. Otherwise, that puts him around Magus level. Would you take Riku over Magus? I would. Bracket: Riku Favorites: Riku Prediction: Riku with 56.34% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Here's a semi-debated match. Riku did really well in 2006, putting up 45% on Yoshi, before regressing back to being a midcarder in after years once the initial excitement over KH2 wore off. Captain Falcon is a strange case- he got 25% on Crono in 2006, making him look like high fodder, but then looked much much better in 2008, putting up nearly 39% on Pikachu and over 44% on Alucard despite Diddy Kong being in the same poll. I have no idea what happened between 2006 and 2008 to cause such a dramatic change, and I'm not even going to try arguing for Crono/Falcon SFF based on the anecdote that I've observed many posters on Smashboards have CT avatars. You could argue Brawl, but the thing is that Captain Falcon's claim to fame is Melee, and he awful in Brawl. So, which Falcon shows up here? I really don't know, although Riku probably handles either one would too much hardship. I probably trust Falcon's 1v1 performances more than 4-ways if it comes down to it, even though that match was 3 years ago. We finally get to see KH and Melee got at it- unfortunately this is a weekend match, just like their match in the Games Contest, so we'll once again be unable to crown the king of the day vote. Prediction: Riku with 57.53% Upset Potential: 10% Upper Bound: Riku with 63% Lower Bound: Falcon with 51% Guest’s Analysis - Biolizard I don’t think this is too difficult a match, but I’m siding with the good Captain here. Pre-Contest, my logic was that Riku has always been a bit mediocre, and outside of Sora, Kingdom Hearts isn’t especially strong on this site. I mean, Roxas let Heavy come closer than he ever should have gotten, and Ansem, far back as it may be, nearly let CATS get the better of him. Captain Falcon may not be a midcarder or anything, but in recent times, his feats are fair enough and what we should expect for a character whose best known for his cameo in a fighting game. Round 1 validates my pick, as Riku failed to double a character who’s Laharl tier while Falcon got 70+% on Wander. That doesn’t seem terribly impressive, but considering how total blowouts are rare, if not impossible, in this format, I think I’ll let it slide. Nintendo has been looking pretty good this year, too, what with Pokemon beasting all over the place. I trust in the good Captain’s ability to win this one. Riku is so lame Cannot double buttpants man Now get Falcon Punched My Bracket: Captain Falcon > Riku Favorite: Captain Falcon Predix: Captain Falcon with 56% Crew Consensus: The Guest believes in Falcon, but everyone else is sticking with Riku. |
Do I even have to say it? --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Crew Curse best activate and make me look like a champion. --- who needs a dick when you're good at smash brothers - stingers Now this is entertainment! |
After
Ramza stunk it up in 2008 (well, Laharl’s good performance against Sora
kinda redeems this), Riku’s 62% didn’t seem great. However, that was
during Riku’s worst time, and FFT was bound to have a terrible day
vote. That was going to get pretty ugly for Ramza, so I believe that
Riku is a bit underrated going into this match. Yeah, Laharl had a good performance against Sora. It could be because Laharl and Ramza are not that weak, or it could be that Kingdom Hearts is not as strong as it was. Given how everything new Square has been underperforming so far, I would consider the latter a bit more likely. Riku should be considered the favorite, and wins based on pure numbers, but I feel that Falcon has the intangibles going into this match. |
CREW- PUUUUNCH! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
dangit, I knew I should've gone with my instinct on this one --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Crew Curse Strikes Back. --- Shakes Fist! |
All glory to the guests. --- who needs a dick when you're good at smash brothers - stingers Now this is entertainment! |
I find who shall win in a debate match.The opposite of the one that Kleenex says!He has an impressive 0/5 matches with this one! --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
So...bad news for Sora it seems. Even worse is that Sora doesn't get his ASV while Bowser gets his morning vote. Uh oh. |
Axel and Riku are no longer their 2006 selves. Unless Bowser weakened, I really cannot see Bowser losing that match. Well, my bracket's toast. --- It takes a genius to make something simple truly great. Congratulations to KrahenProphet for beating me in the Guru. |
shoulda stuck with Falcon in my bracket oh well --- xyzzy |
anyway, Sora's losing to Bowser --- xyzzy |
And
it's because we know that Ramza/Laharl are the fodder that Dante truly
showed us they are, and not because of some inexplicable KH collapse.
Okay fine, I'll admit that KH going down is definetely happening, as
well as the rest of New Square going into an absolute pickle. You have
to wonder if/how things change after Final Fantasy XIII. |
Even LMS realizes that New Square is sucking it up! |
Aside from Kingdom Hearts, how exactly is new Square sucking? --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I find it funny that New Square is losing strength while Old Square is boosting. Yay for the SNES era! :D --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
Haha wow. I figured Falcon had a chance but I didn't think he'd be stomping. Though looking at the results Riku has been tearing up his percentage. Maybe he's not out of this yet. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Aside from Kingdom Hearts, how exactly is new Square sucking? Cloud and Sephiroth scoring only 72% on Ridley and Marth, Tidus losing to Sub-Zero when he was the favorite going in, Cid and Zack losing decisively to one of the weak links in the Noble Nine, Vincent doing worse than Bowser on Guybrush during Mario's weakest year. And most importantly, no impressive matches to balance it all out. You can explain any one of these performances individually, but the collective force of all of the disappointments points to a trend. |
