GameFAQs Contests

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup - Sora/Bowser Matches

Hmm, missed by about one percent... but it was in the direction that allows me to keep beating this long-dead "KH = Halo" horse, so I'm a happy camper! My only surprise was seeing Sora starting out with a strong opening push (just over 67% one minute in)- here I thought B8 was one of Disgaea's last strongholds? From there Sora climbed to 68 before being (VERY weakly) cut through the whole overnight. He did muster one of the better Morning Vote pushes we've seen so far, but that still wasn't enough to salvage this into "respectable performance" territory. Even so, Laharl is such a nothing opponent that I hesitate to put too much stock in this final percentage; if we want any kind of indicator for how R3 will play out, we'll have to turn to Kefka.

Today is probably my favorite out of all the second round matches where the winner is already pre-determined. Which I suppose is sort of like calling it the "prettiest ugly girl", but I meant it as a compliment! Anyways, in any other year you would see that Frog held Bowser to 63%, remember that Kefka's always appeared to be a tier below Magus and Frog, factor in how he's sure to be even worse during the Day, mark this for 65 percentage and head out to lunch. In 2010, however... I honestly have no idea WHAT to think about Kefka.

Personally I'd saw he looks awful in this match pic, but then again I thought the same thing in R1 and it didn't keep people from supporting him as they never have before. Did his Heath Ledger/Jokerish Dissidia makeover really earn the clown this many new fans after all these years? That sounds crazy, but whatever it is that's going on, it's got me running scared. Even as the biggest Bowser believer around and the guy who's been riding the Sora Upset Wagon from Day One, I've still got to throw up the white flag today and chicken out with a Kefka > Frog result. Here's hoping Bowser can at least keep it in the high 50s... but as I've explained, at this point nothing Kefka could do here would surprise me! (Well, aside from "win.")

Ngamer Says: Bowser > Kefka, 62.41%

---
You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed!
thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

did you seriously call Glados a joke character again

You're just tempting fate at this point, man

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup - Bowser/L-Block Matches

Very nice performance from Kefka- even with Chrono Trigger having taken a step back in recent years, I'd still argue that surpassing Frog so easily should certainly validate Kefka as legit. What exactly "legit" means is up for debate... I guess I'd describe it as treading water far enough above the fodder line that you should generally be considered a favorite in your first round matches. At this rate I'm sure he'll be back to provide more Kefka Magic in 2011! But the real question is, has this sub-62 showing put the ball back in Sora's court for next round? I say no, that Sora and the entire rest of his KH cast have done nothing but underperform all season and you'd be silly to bet against Bowser and a Nintendo Crew that has yet to disappoint. But then again I'm me, so you already saw that one coming!

In this upcoming overnight poll we're all set to witness one of the most puzzling matches of the season. And by that I mean I just saw an entire page of Oracle predictions that treated L-Block as if he were coming into this poll straight off his 2007 peak, and why anyone would still pick that way after all we've seen in Round Two has me extremely puzzled. You can only hear a joke so many times before you get sick of it, and between WCC struggling with The Boss and GlaDOS getting slaughtered by Kirby, it seems pretty clear that these jokes aren't quite the knee-slappers they were back before one of them broke the Noble Nine. Either that or non-traditional characters start losing strength in a 1v1 setting once the competition grows stronger and there are fewer completely indifferent voters for them to win over. Which pretty much results in the same thing (except of course for Mizno, who knocked out one of the strongest opponents right off the bat).

I'm also confused as to why everyone has automatically assumed that HK-47 must obviously be stronger than Isaac. I thought we all agreed that HK and Revan would be somewhere around the same level- is Terra the new Aerith or something? Nintendo's been looking good, Isaac's just the kind of character this site has traditionally gotten behind, and you have to have at least SOME semblance of strength to pound someone who's sold as many games as Prof. Layton. I'll admit to letting anti-joke bias getting in my way when I took Isaac for the straight up win in my bracket, but I'd argue these picks for L-Block in the high 60s are (almost) equally as foolish! Give me something in the low 60s, with Isaac having no trouble improving on HK's percentage.

Ngamer Says: L-Block > Isaac, 61.95%

---
You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed!
thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

Ngamer, no one's going to read all these! You don't have to post them all just to ease your conscience!
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

I'm already done reading all of them!

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

THREE TIMES

IN ONE DAY, NGAMER YOU ARE A MARKED MAN

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Hey N, you messed up who was facing who in every match.

We love you.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

so um

is anyone else worried about Riku?
---
xyzzy

I've been worried about Riku since the bracket was released.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

good, I feel better knowing that somebody else cares!
---
xyzzy

Losing to Falcon?

Not really. That performance on Wander was pretty bad. I think we're letting it slide because he still broke 70%, but still, it was pretty pathetic. I don't think Falcon's far removed from the guy who got tripled by Crono back in 2006. I don't think Riku's all that strong myself, but every 4-way match Falcon had was LFF-heavy, so I don't trust 'em.
---
"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

From: HaRRicH | #357
Hey N, you messed up who was facing who in every match.

We love you.

haha took me awhile to figure out what he was doing

From: LeonhartFour | #354
Ngamer, no one's going to read all these!

proving leon wrong every day

---
"not my nips nooo" ~ Shadow Ryoko

Falcon's also the kind of guy that would do well in a fourway, that's what I keep telling myself.

but I just don't trust Riku. he's like Magus to me, he always goes below my expectations.
---
xyzzy

Ngamer, no one's going to read all these!

I stand by my statement!
---
"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Riku didn't exactly light up the sky against Ramza. Laharl doing well makes Ramza look better, but yeah. Match is within the acceptable range of being worried.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

I think I'm more worried about Riku losing than Dante.

also, those are the only two debatable matches until Yoshi's. this'll be a boring week.
---
xyzzy

Yeah, but I'd feel pretty confident in Ramza puttin' a whoopin' on Wander, too.
---
"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

I'm still taking Riku, but I've never felt too good about it. CF had enough exposure to run up the score on Wander, especially considering he would be a good candidate for a beneficiary of the four-way format...and, yeah, seeing CF get 71%'s great no matter who he's facing, but Shepard broke 75% on somebody I'd probably take over Wander, so I'm not that impressed. Riku's had ~45% on Yoshi and ~46% on Kratos in the past, and I'll take those numbers to beat what CF would do.

If Riku looked better in 2008, I wouldn't be worried...but I think he'll win it.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Wander vs. Ellis, I'd seriously consider Wander, but still. The point is that we can't just say Falcon has some sort of cap where he can only get so high. Shepard got 75%, and the Cube almost got 80%. Falcon's from Smash, so he's got no excuses.
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

I'd take Wander over Ellis. Ellis is the weakest thing in this bracket.
---
xyzzy

Ellis > Sandal!

...I think.

But hopefully, we never have to make such decisions!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Sandal is definitely the weakest.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

yeah it's between Sandal and Ellis. I instantly regretted saying that after I thought of Sandal.

but Dragon Age is more popular than L4D2 so maybe Sandal could win it! maybe!
---
xyzzy

Sandal is the kind of joke that wasn't even known or remembered when his first match started. In a year he could be sub-Tanner level.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

My brother didn't know who I was talking about when I asked him about Sandal until "Enchantment" was brought up. He then proceeded to laugh and rip into him.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Samus Aran 67.52% 35025
Jill Valentine 32.48% 16852
TOTAL VOTES 51877

Roxas 40.94% 31587
Sub-Zero 59.06% 45571
TOTAL VOTES 77158

Crew Predictions - 68/80

What Happened: Samus beats Jill and Subby handles Roxas

Why it Happened: Jill looked really good in Round 1, so her barely getting doubled isn't that bad of a showing. Roxas performed as most expected against Sub-Zero.

What will Happen: Samus should do a bit worse on Subby than she did on Jill.



Crew Prediction Challenge - more points

Kleenex - 72
Moltar - 72
Tran - 71
Red Sox - 71
Ngamer - 70
Lopen - 67
Guest - 66



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Samus and Lopen gets the point for Sub-Zero

Ngamer - 16
Moltar - 15.5
Tran - 12
Guest - 11.5 (Bio: 1.5, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 3, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 1, War: 1)
Lopen - 11
Red Sox - 8
Kleenex - 6
---
Moltar Status: Prediction: Jecht > Ratchet (84/100)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Sandal got 22% on Weighted Companion Cube which means 25% on The Boss. Ellis got 25% on Commander Shepard. The Boss > Commander Shepard, so...it's clear that Sandal isn't the weakest thing in the bracket.

wait, what?
Fawful and Layton aren't in the bottom 3?
---
Shakes Fist!

wow I just paid attention enough to notice Kleenex is at the top of the Predix and bottom of the Accuracy

---
Porre either became an aristocratic mercantile state or a placid direct democracy depending on if the lady who ran an inn was able to serve people beef jerky.

while Moltar remains the eternal second place guy.
---
Shakes Fist!

Varia Division: Round 2 - Match 84 – (10) Zelda vs. (2) Ezio Auditore da Firenze

Moltar’s Analysis

Zelda
Round 1 - 70.67% vs. Travis

Travis ;_;

Ratchet
Round 1 - 59.71% vs. Simon

Following in Altair’s disappointing footsteps.

Well, it looks like Zelda is still Zelda. She stomped all over NMH2-boosted Travis, and now she’s going to crush Ezio. The dude failed to beat down Simon Belmont, so this should be ugly. I know Zelda and Vivi had a match, and you can probably work out some percentage from Vivi/Altair and setting Altair = Ezio (ceiling), but I hope you don’t expect me to actually analyze over throwing out random numbers for a prediction.

Moltar’s Bracket: Zelda > Ezio

Moltar’s Prediction: Zelda: 66% - Ezio: 34%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well, Altair pretty much proved himself to be a fraud. Failing to break 60% on Simon Belmont doesn't exactly inspire confidence in Ezio's ability to pull the upset here, either, unless you're Curt.

My take on this match is that Zelda is trying to read Ezio's full name and accidentally mistakes it for the incantations to Din's Fire and kills him. Or something like that. Not really up on my Zelda jokes so please don't tell me "GOD DIN'S FIRE HAS SOMATIC CCOMPONENTS ONLY." Cause I really don't care.

Lopen's prediction:
Zelda with 65.88%



Transience’s Analysis

Ezio struggled with Simon Belmont. Zelda would destroy Simon Belmont.

I'm not sure what else to say here. Simon did better this year than in prior years, but he's still fodder. I'll give Ezio the benefit of the doubt and put him around the fodder line, even though I think he might be weaker than that. Zelda will make this ugly.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 67.99%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Quickie w/ Ng: After those last two matches, could expectations for AC characters possibly be lower? I think not... yet I bet Ezio still finds a way to disappoint!

Ngamer Says: Zelda > Ezio, 64.93%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Ezio Auditore da Firenze bombed pretty bad against Simon last round. Ezio Auditore da Firenze wasn't even able to break 60% on someone that lost decisively to Sam Fisher. Ezio Auditore da Firenze also isn't helped by the fact that his (stronger) partner-in-crime Altair was exposed by Vivi earlier this round. Ezio Auditore da Firenze is probably in for a world of hurt against someone like Zelda, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her completely embarass Ezio Auditore da Firenze. Maybe after another game or two Ezio Auditore da Firenze might be worth something, but until then Ezio Auditore da Firenze is doomed to continuing the string of failed 2 seeds this contest.

Bracket: Not Ezio Auditore da Firenze
Favorites: Not Ezio Auditore da Firenze
Prediction: Not Ezio Auditore da Firenze with 66.87%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Ah, here it is at last, the match that has caused the most virulent and negative discussion this contest. Curt has been spearheading this forward since early in round 1, picking up almost no support from anyone else. I've always thought it wasn't that bad- there were worse upsets people have taken. After Ezio only got 60% against Simon Belmont and Altair got 45% against Vivi, I think this upset is dead, though Ezio could still break 40%. I don't think Zelda beats Vivi with anywhere near the 59% she got in 2005 nowadays.

Prediction: Zelda with 59.88%
Upset Potential: 1%
Upper Bound: Zelda with 66%
Lower Bound: Zelda with 55%



Guest’s Analysis - FantasyFreak999

Well, here we go. I predicted the fall of Altair and shockingly won, and now I'm predicting the fall of his clone... but really, this shouldn't surprise ANYONE. He's not going up against Vivi this time... he's going up against ZELDA. Back in 2005, Zelda beat Vivi with 59.56%. We can assume that Altair is a lil bit stronger than Ezio (I didn't even know who Ezio was before the contest), and Vivi beat Altair with 55.79%, so it's safe to say that Zelda is gonna blow Ezio out of the water. By how much? I'm gonna go for right underneath a doubling.

Zelda - 66.12%




Crew Consensus: Zelda will easily win this one

Ratchet
Round 1 - 59.71% vs. Simon

Following in Altair’s disappointing footsteps.

If only.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

huh, we're all going really high.
---
xyzzy

Except for red sox.

...I'm not sure what to think about that.
---
"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

CREW CURSE (with percentages)

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

First match this contest to feature the Zelda ASV is coming!

CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER ALL THIS 66% BRETT

HOPEFULLY IT DOESN'T GO DOWN
---
xyzzy

Zelda ASV vs. AC ASV, should be interesting.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

DAMMIT

ROXAS STILL SUCKS BRETT
---
xyzzy

tee hee

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

xd percentages

---
img184.imageshack.us/img184/7595/lovevk5.gif
Joker is sick and twisted and must be stoped at all costed what plans do you have in store for Batman anyway

just saw the match pictures for the rest of the round. picture makers were not nice to me -- Dante, Riku and Big Daddy all look awful.
---
xyzzy

I'm apparently the only one who likes Big Daddy's pic, even if it's not exactly representational of him and he's against a good shot of Ness.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

I was expecting Big Daddy to look terrible, so I'm actually relieved with his pic. Obviously, he's best served with the Bioshock 1 box cover, but his closeup is so damn freaky that it practically leaps out at you. It sets up perhaps the largest pic contrast we've ever seen, and I'll take that just fine in a match where I assumed my guy would have a horrible pic disadvantage.
---
Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

The contrast is only made stronger with the frames, too. Ness looks like it was picture-day at school...whereas something that looks so evil and industrial yet indistinct shouldn't really be framed.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Frames was a bad idea for a gimmick. I think Bacon just thought of Alucard in a picture frame and was like LOL GREAT THEME and didn't think about the rest of the round.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I agree. Sure wish SB would have posted the pic to Link/MMX too, just so we could see how much better/worse the sprite-round will look than this round's frames.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

I think Bacon just thought of Alucard in a picture frame and was like LOL GREAT THEME and didn't think about the rest of the round.

It had to be the Luigi's Mansion Luigi pic, man!
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Looks like red sox gets the accuracy point for this after all!

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.