GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

transience | Posted 2/24/2010 11:04:19 AM | message detail | filter | #151
Kratos winning the board vote? either brackets are helping out or Charizard is screwed.

oh hey, 'zard just took it back. this should be good, they've both got good day votes.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 2/24/2010 11:05:29 AM | message detail | filter | #152
Kratos kinda died that last minute. this could get ugly.
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xyzzy
th3l3fty | Posted 2/24/2010 11:06:09 AM | message detail | filter | #153
just wait til the kiddies get home!
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 11:07:30 AM | message detail | filter | #154
The poll is still glitchy.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 11:07:50 AM | message detail | filter | #155
Damnit Missingno, quit glitching other Pokemon's polls

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/24/2010 11:16:43 AM | message detail | filter | #156
Okay wow my prediction has Jill overperforming by over 10% according to the '07 x-stats. Uh oh.
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/24/2010 11:19:34 AM | message detail | filter | #157
well, it's not too late for you to send in a different writeup, if you want.
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
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th3l3fty | Posted 2/24/2010 11:22:20 AM | message detail | filter | #158
why would anyone ever use the '07 x-stats
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/24/2010 1:13:03 PM | message detail | filter | #159
Kleenex is worse than Ulti was that one year with writeups

ouch
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:06:17 PM | message detail | filter | #160
Sup Crew

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transients | Posted 2/24/2010 4:09:01 PM | message detail | filter | #161
Charizard hasn't dominated its pack enough to suggest being able to beat Bowser or Sora. Kratos lost to SFF'd Auron last year, after all. L-Block should be interesting, but I'd back the 'zard there.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:09:53 PM | message detail | filter | #162
The only reason to be afraid of the 'Zard in round 4 is the fact that the match is on the day of HG/SS, but how big of a factor you make that is uncertain.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/24/2010 4:10:24 PM | message detail | filter | #163
Everyone buying HG/SS is going to be too busy playing it to vote !
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:13:53 PM | message detail | filter | #164
64% on Duke in a night match or 62% on Kefka in a day match? 64% on Duke or 68% on Laharl?

Bowser/Sora is the favorite, but Charizard might not even need the HG/SS thing to win.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transients | Posted 2/24/2010 4:13:59 PM | message detail | filter | #165
oh, is it? I guess that makes it interesting, but I can't see Bowser losing to Mewtwo when he beat him in maybe his worst year, and I have a hard time picking Charizard over Mewtwo at the moment. I could be wrong there, but Kratos has kind of sucked the last couple of years and I don't think a 54% victory is all that great. I'd take Sora and Bowser to beat Kratos into the ground.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:14:48 PM | message detail | filter | #166
I'll take Kefka > Duke 1-on-1. The dude's a fraud.

64% on Frog or 64% on Duke? 64% on Midna or 64% on Duke?
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ZFS | Posted 2/24/2010 4:15:51 PM | message detail | filter | #167
62% on 2010 Kefka beats 64% on Duke Nukem in any year.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:16:51 PM | message detail | filter | #168
64% on Frog in a day match and after CT bombed universally. After what we're seeing today, Charizard vs. Duke in a day match would probably be ugly.

Midna...well there's a reason I think Sora is still the easy favorite against Bowser!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:17:13 PM | message detail | filter | #169

From: ZFS | #166
62% on 2010 Kefka beats 64% on Duke Nukem in any year.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3246

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:17:31 PM | message detail | filter | #170
And maybe gut feelings aren't the best idea, but just the thought of Charizard being stronger than Bowser just doesn't sit right with me. Just doesn't seem like something that would happen. NINTENDO HIERARCHY and all that.

And yeah, Bowser beat Mewtwo pretty easily even with Toad in the poll.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/24/2010 4:17:44 PM | message detail | filter | #171
go away charizard apologists
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:17:59 PM | message detail | filter | #172

From: KamikazePotato | #169
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3246


Key word: 2010 Kefka

Or number, whatever
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:18:29 PM | message detail | filter | #173
It wouldn't surprise me too much. Bowser isn't what he used to be. Charizard beating Sora is the stretch.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:19:31 PM | message detail | filter | #174
Bowser isn't what he used to be, but he's probably still equal with Luigi and Yoshi. I just don't see a Pokemon (other than Missingno, but that's a different deal) beating out that trio.

Like I said, it's just a gut feeling, but I just don't see it happening.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
transients | Posted 2/24/2010 4:20:05 PM | message detail | filter | #175
I could see it with Pikachu, but not Charizard.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:20:45 PM | message detail | filter | #176
I'm not even sure I take Pikachu over Mewtwo, let alone Charizard.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/24/2010 4:21:12 PM | message detail | filter | #177
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:21:22 PM | message detail | filter | #178
Ehhh, even Pikachu I'm iffy on. Luigi beat the rat pretty easily in '07.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/24/2010 4:22:34 PM | message detail | filter | #179
Remember, Charizard *sprite*. Look at what Missingno and Pikachu sprite have done in the past.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 4:22:53 PM | message detail | filter | #180
Which will be against L-Block.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/24/2010 4:23:05 PM | message detail | filter | #181
(jesus christ I'm trying to argue Charizard beating Bowser based on Missingno this is the best contest)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 4:23:15 PM | message detail | filter | #182
Charizard sprite vs. L-Block sprite: Nostalgia factor negated
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/24/2010 4:23:40 PM | message detail | filter | #183
I'm gonna go curl up in a hole somewhere and get some sleep.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 2/24/2010 5:52:53 PM | message detail | filter | #184
Moltar, I've fallen ever so slightly behind on reading Crew writeups. Any chance you could upload the last topic to the site sometime tonight?

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You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed!
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OrangeKidJosh | Posted 2/24/2010 6:01:32 PM | message detail | filter | #185
just got here and wow go Charizard :D

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The Samus Beam Cannon Corollary states that anything that looks, acts like, or is similar to light moves at the speed of light. - KamikazePotato
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 2/24/2010 6:25:37 PM | message detail | filter | #186
It seems Ngamer predicted this match right with the percentages.Nice.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/24/2010 7:32:36 PM | message detail | filter | #187
I'm going to stay with my current writeup. Assuming that Samus is worth 40% on Link and we just saw Alucard approach 30% on Link, that means that Samus would score 60% on Alucard (okay, that's probably too low!), and if Alucard 55-45's Jill...my prediction is Samus with slightly less than 65% (night match to help Jill out right?). I just can't imagine Samus doubling her after that massive overperformance from last round.

What's the consensus for that match?
red sox 777 | Posted 2/24/2010 7:38:44 PM | message detail | filter | #188
Charizard's still a slight favorite to advance out of this division to me. Yes, this is somewhat disappointing, but not as disappointing as Sora barely doubling Laharl.

And the funny thing is if you'd asked us before the contest which was better, everyone would have taken 64% over Duke in the night over 62% against Kefka during the day. If the reverse is true, where does that put Kefka's boost since last year? Somewhere around Snake's Brawl boost, probably.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
red sox 777 | Posted 2/24/2010 7:43:01 PM | message detail | filter | #189
And for that matter, before the contest, 54% on Kratos would have seemed pretty impressive, impressive enough to perhaps vie with Sora. Granted, Kratos looked bad against Tails, but so did Sora. On another note, Tails and Boss both looked good this year, which makes me think they were underrated in 2007.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/24/2010 7:58:58 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #190

From: Ngamer64 | #184
Moltar, I've fallen ever so slightly behind on reading Crew writeups. Any chance you could upload the last topic to the site sometime tonight?


Topics 3 and 4 are now uploaded

link in sig for everyone to see
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Moltar Status: Bracket: L-Block > Isaac (78/92)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 8:19:31 PM | message detail | filter | #191
I feel like that if Bowser is there, then Charizard has a very real chance of beating him. But if Sora is there, that chance is a lot slimmer...mostly because I think that if Sora loses to Bowser, it'll be because he lost a step, not due to Bowser getting stronger or anything.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
red sox 777 | Posted 2/24/2010 8:21:26 PM | message detail | filter | #192
I'd put the odds at.....

Charizard: 35%
Sora: 30%
Bowser: 25%
L-Block: 10%
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
transients | Posted 2/24/2010 8:22:16 PM | message detail | filter | #193
way too much Charizard hype for my tastes here.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/24/2010 8:23:36 PM | message detail | filter | #194
He's fallen with acceptable range of Bowser and Sora so far, and a new Pokemon game is being released on the day of his match. Not exactly a crazy prospect to consider.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 8:41:20 PM | message detail | filter | #195
Charizard is not the favorite. He's got a good shot, but he hasn't earned favorite status.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/24/2010 9:12:45 PM | message detail | filter | #196
...do people really think Charizard can beat Bowzer? I would think that Nintendo SFF would go to the turtle. I know I'M voting for him.
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/24/2010 10:03:51 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #197
Varia Division: Round 2 - Match 81 – (1) Samus Aran vs. (9) Jill Valentine

Moltar’s Analysis

Samus
Round 1 - 78.69% vs. Prince

The Queen looking well in R1.

Jill
Round 1 - 67.21% vs. Niko

Jill beatdown who doesn’t want to see this?

After Jill thrashed Niko last round, it’s a shame to see her get wasted by Samus now. Samus looked very good in Round 1, scoring one of the biggest blowouts of the Contest against Prince. Her opponent this time is no pushover, and Jill should be able to do okay here.

I won’t go too low though, as Jill’s performance was probably mostly Niko falling off the face of the Earth.

Moltar’s Bracket: Samus > Jill

Moltar’s Prediction: Samus: 67% - Jill: 33%



Lopen’s Analysis

Barry Manilow: You were almost a Jill Sandwich!
Jill: Hoo, don't I know it. Thanks Bar-- *BLING BLING BLAOW*
Samus: I JUST BLEW UP YOUR HEAD THAT YOU COULD HAVE USED TO EAT SOME FOOD. CH3CK RAISE IN DA HOUSE.
Ridley: Oohhhhh snappppp.

Lopen's prediction:
Samus with 68.88%



Transience’s Analysis

Samus time! I've got a weird feeling of deja vu with Samus. In 2004, Samus put up two of the strongest performances en route to a showdown with Cloud. The result was a performance so good that people took Samus over Mario in 2005 without thinking.

This year, the same thing is setting up. Samus destroyed the Prince in round 1, doing 17% better than Kirby did. When you consider that the Prince would put up a fight against Marth and Cloud only got 72%, Samus technically emerged from round 1 looking like the stronger of the two. With the way that Cloud has been trending down the last couple of years, this would be one really cool upset. Is it a realistic one? Definitely not. But it's fun to think about.

Round 2 should be good to Samus. When it comes to badass chicks with guns, Samus just trumps everyone. We saw it in 2006 with Ada Wong - Samus just took all of her appeal and crushed it. Jill has a lot more of the RE fanbase behind her because she's not just the chick in the red dress, but Samus should still make her look bad here. What happens if Samus beats Jill worse than Cloud can beat Chris Redfield? We start to get silly upset talk. I like this!

transience's prediction: Samus with 69.85%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Quickie w/ Ng: I like Jill quite a bit and appreciate how good she and RE have looked lately, but Samus is one of very few "blowout machines" we have left in the game. (Also, Jill doesn't look so great in this pic.)

Ngamer Says: Samus > Jill, 67.71%



Kleenex’s Analysis

OH GOD IT'S LIKE THE FEMALE BRACKET ALL OVER AGAIN

Seriously, how often do we actually see two female characters meet? Considering there's only ever like 5 maximum in any single bracket, I'd say not often! Jill gets the shaft here though. I am, however, interested to see if she's as LEGIT as her round 1 match seemed to show. All about that RE5 boost, son. Samus should be a good measuring stick barring some FEMALE SFF yes I went there.

Aside from that, this should be fairly routine. It's not even worth using this to look ahead at later matches because Samus has no competition until Cloud, and she really has no chance there. Oh well !

Bracket: Samus
Favorites: Samus
Prediction: Samus with 63.05%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/24/2010 10:04:09 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #198
Red Sox’s Analysis

Samus has been perhaps our most consistent Noble Niner since 2003, and she's been consistently very strong. Jill was a solid midcarder back in 2003, but fell a long way after that, culminating in a loss to Peach in 2006. Since then she's been on the way back up, and with RE5 she has made it all the way back and maybe more. She'll do well here, but Samus is really really strong.

Prediction: Samus with 65.50%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Samus with 69%
Lower Bound: Samus with 62%



Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

This is the battle between sexy ladies who trek through nightmare situations in order to unearth secret experiments/conspiracies meant to endanger mankind. Both of these women are also in bad situations at the end of their respective franchise, as Jill is dead (though Chris denies it), and Samus has been branded a criminal. Oh, and these are also the two highest seeded ladies in the bracket (no other lady outseeded Jill, right? And I said LADIES, not general female characters). There's also the fact that Resident Evil and Metroid share quite some similarites (if only because both specialize in dark and moody atmospheres, plus both franchises are fond of escape sequences and explosions). In a series contest I'd probably vote for Resident Evil over Metroid, but Samus certainly has my vote here. And I'll admit that I had a hard time deciding who to vote for between Niko and Jill last round and ended up voting for Jill because she looked hot in the match pic (and yes I mean *that* kind of hot). Yeah Jill is American while Samus is...maybe British, and Samus operates alone and has much greater athletic ability, but I like drawing up similarities.

As far as the actual match, both of them did well last round, with Jill having QUITE the overperformance. We expected like 60% at most, and we got a doubling! Holy crap, Jill! And with all this talk about Alucard looking like his old-self, might we be seeing a PS1 boost that is somehow independent of FF7/MGS? If so...watch out, Auron! But that's also off topic.

If Samus doubles Jill I'll be surprised (though hilariously the Prince of Persia is ahead of Jill in the '07 x-stats). Yeah Niko had reason to fall down but Jill boosting somehow also makes sense. I've been talking quite a lot about Gordon Freeman is probably worth about 30% on Samus, and Jill is probably on that level...except bzzt, then we saw the massive overperformance from last round! Then you consider that this is a night match, allowing Jill to rip into the one-woman army more easily than usual.

Unfortunately, however, I have not seen the match pic yet, and considering how one of these characters is (apparently) one of the most pic-sensitive characters in the contest while the other likes to mess with our expectations, that can spell disaster for this prediction. And why do I keep dreaming that Samus is descended from Link? Hey, both of them are orphans at least!

Prediction - Samus with 64.95%



Crew Consensus: Samus wins in this battle of the babes.
HaRRicH | Posted 2/24/2010 10:20:53 PM | message detail | filter | #199
I feel pretty good about Charizard > Bowser based on Kefka/Duke (even after acknowledging Dissidia), HG/SS, and Bowser not being that good with the day-vote...though I don't know what to think about Sora in the midst of this. I'd still be pretty confident in him if he had a day-match against Bowser or didn't have to deal with a Pokemon-release against Charizard. As-is...eh, the vote-ins favor Bowser if you use Frog/Midna, but Sora looked reasonably better since 2006 and KH358/2 beat M&L:BIS in the DS-GotY so it's not like Bowser should gain a lot from that.

Let's see is any other evidence comes up before then.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/24/2010 10:22:40 PM | message detail | filter | #200
Bowser/Charizard feels like one of those matches where you forget stats and just use...wait for it...yes, here it comes...

Common sense.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

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