GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

KamikazePotato | Posted 2/22/2010 9:49:27 PM | message detail | filter | #051
Oh hey, I guess I'm the Guest for this match.

KP's Guest Writuep Where He Is Sorely Tempted To Take Laharl But The Guests Actually Seem To Be Doing Okay This Year So He Doesn't Want To Screw Things Up

Laharl got 24.66% on Dante, 26.34% on Yoshi, and 27.63% on Kirby. Sora's around that level. Then you factor in it being a night match. Then you factor in the fact that Tingle got 24%+ in Sora, and if Laharl can't exceed that by at least 4% then I am ending everyone in GameFAQs.

Laharl with 29.5%

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/22/2010 10:14:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #052
Heart Division: Round 2 - Match 77 – (1) Sora vs. (8) Laharl

Moltar’s Analysis

Sora
Round 1 - 63.63% vs. Midna

Midna does have some legit strength.

Laharl
Round 1 - 56.32% vs. Neku

Yes, Laharl actually won a match.

Easy stuff. Even Midna would trash Laharl. However, Sora sucks at big blowouts, so Laharl is probably going to end up looking semi-decent here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sora > Neku

Moltar’s Prediction: Sora: 68% - Laharl: 32%



Transience’s Analysis

After a string of interesting matches, we get this. Sora/Bowser is one of the biggest matches of the contest, but it's going to be tough to draw many conclusions off Laharl and whatever the hell is going on with Kefka.

Our first match is tailor-made for Laharl to make Sora look bad since Laharl's such a night beast and Sora's a day vote god. I don't think as high of Sora as others do and I think fans of both characters will vote for Laharl over Sora, so this shouldn't be a beatdown. If there's any kind of RPG SFF though? Laharl gets killed here.

Man, whatever. This match doesn't matter.

transience's prediction: Sora with 69.56%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Quickie w/ Ng: Sora barely managed 70 on Agent 47- as long as you're not an anti-vote magnet yourself (see: Tingle) you're going to score well on him. Laharl's tiny semblance of a fanbase should help him improve on that mark.

Ngamer Says: Sora > STOP NOMINATING HIM, 68.91%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Bracket: Sora
Favorites: Sora
Prediction: Sora with 72.19%



Red Sox’s Analysis

This is an easy blowout win for Sora, the kind that really shouldn't happen in round 2 except perhaps with Clinkeroth. Characters as weak as Laharl should not be winning first round matches, ever. Now, Ganondorf got about 78% on Neku last year, whom Laharl beat in an Ulti-style blowout in round 1. Ganondorf and Sora are probably fairly close, with Sora being a bit higher probably. However, this is a night match, so I'll be conservative and pick:

Prediction: Sora with 74.50%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Sora with 78%
Lower Bound: Sora with 71%



Crew Consensus: Sora unlocks the path to Round 3
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/22/2010 10:23:32 PM | message detail | filter | #053
Lopen | Posted 2/22/2010 10:43:08 PM | message detail | filter | #054
Lopen's analysis

Lopen sad. Master Chief lost. ;_; ;_; ;_;

Laharl beat Neku pretty easy last round. Now people probably are callin for the Vyse/Laharl effect and I don't entirely disagree with them but I think Laharl could impress here-- night match and all that. Also Sora didn't impress me at all last round... least I don't think he did. I hardly even remember.

Lopen's prediction:
Sora with 70.09%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:04:15 PM | message detail | filter | #055
if Bowser gets a higher percentage than Sora, we're calling him the favourite, right?
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 2/22/2010 11:04:46 PM | message detail | filter | #056
Man we'd better
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/22/2010 11:05:40 PM | message detail | filter | #057
The day Kefka loses to Laharl...

is a day that will happen next contest because we'll be expecting Kefka to win.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:06:22 PM | message detail | filter | #058
also, leaderboard for me aww yeah
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/22/2010 11:07:02 PM | message detail | filter | #059
Now watch Kefka go and score 45% on Bowser

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:08:43 PM | message detail | filter | #060

From: transience | #055
if Bowser gets a higher percentage than Sora, we're calling him the favourite, right?


Laharl > Kefka?

If Kefka breaks 40%, I'd feel pretty bad about Bowser though.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:11:57 PM | message detail | filter | #061
I feel like Kefka doing well is a real possibility. I could see Kefka avoiding a doubling and Bowser still beating Sora. not to say he would, but that wouldn't be too weird in my eyes.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:12:53 PM | message detail | filter | #062
I dunno. Sora can't blow anybody out. The dude could barely triple Tingle. Sora puts up his best performances against the big boys, but we'll see.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:14:27 PM | message detail | filter | #063
Sora can't blow anybody out because he ain't that strong!

I think Laharl (and Disgaea in general) is better than we give it credit for. it's why I went with Ike despite the bomb against Prinny.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:16:55 PM | message detail | filter | #064
Bowser's not been that impressive to me the last few years anyway. Sora doesn't have to be Squall level to win.

Assuming Frog and Magus are equal, Bowser/Alucard goes 55/45. Sound familiar?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2103
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:21:19 PM | message detail | filter | #065
now there's a logical leap!
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:22:38 PM | message detail | filter | #066
Can't beat it!

But seriously, Bowser only beating Alucard with 55%? That's not particularly impressive to me. Plus, I just can't shake 45% on Mega Man vs. 42% on Crono in a year when Mega Man and Crono were essentially equals. What's changed since then that puts Bowser on top? Nintendo hasn't gotten any better since 2006.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:25:22 PM | message detail | filter | #067
What's changed since then that puts Bowser on top?

I dunno, how about Bowser's first starring role in a game since SMRPG or so?
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:26:57 PM | message detail | filter | #068
Bowser's Inside Story?

Man, I loved that game as much as the next guy, but...I dunno. It lost to 358/2 Days in the DS poll!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
red sox 777 | Posted 2/22/2010 11:27:04 PM | message detail | filter | #069
But seriously, Bowser only beating Alucard with 55%? That's not particularly impressive to me. Plus, I just can't shake 45% on Mega Man vs. 42% on Crono in a year when Mega Man and Crono were essentially equals. What's changed since then that puts Bowser on top? Nintendo hasn't gotten any better since 2006.

Nintendo's fallen since 2006, but so has KH. Based on Riku and company, they've fallen harder, although Sora has looked like it didn't affect him much up until now. Would Riku still get close to 45% on Yoshi? If not, then why couldn't Bowser make up the gap with Sora too?

And the funny thing is, back in 2006 we were so convinced of Bowser > Sora that most of us argued that Megaman was the clear last in the Noble Nine for quite some time.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:28:24 PM | message detail | filter | #070
Nintendo/Nintendo/Nintendo/Square not the fairest fight!
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:28:45 PM | message detail | filter | #071
Based on Riku and company, they've fallen harder

Haven't you argued that the side characters fall harder than the main character?

Now between Sora and Bowser, who's a main character and who's a side character?
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:30:10 PM | message detail | filter | #072
I dunno. I just don't put a lot of stock in Bowser's Inside Story to do big things for Bowser. It did sell really well though. Plus, he's just been so pathetic the last three years.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
transience | Posted 2/22/2010 11:31:58 PM | message detail | filter | #073
well, Dante tripled Laharl last year and Sora's gonna struggle to hit 70%. not the fairest comparison, but it's not like Sora's an untouchable here. Bowser doesn't need to be super strong to beat him.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 2/22/2010 11:32:38 PM | message detail | filter | #074
Haven't you argued that the side characters fall harder than the main character?

Now between Sora and Bowser, who's a main character and who's a side character?


Yeah, true. But Riku and Yoshi are both side characters, so if Riku would do much worse against Yoshi now, it means KH has fallen off worse than Mario since 2006, probably because that was the year of KH2. I thought pretty highly of Sora- more or less placed him at 46-47% on Squall and figured he didn't drop much from 2006, but this match suggests otherwise.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:32:44 PM | message detail | filter | #075
Dante's a fodder killer, man! He always kills fodder good and then bombs round two!

...Uh oh.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/22/2010 11:34:36 PM | message detail | filter | #076
Axel isn't fodder.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/22/2010 11:35:17 PM | message detail | filter | #077
He beat him as badly as Mega Man did!

That's just what Dante does!
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
Lopen | Posted 2/23/2010 12:38:41 AM | message detail | filter | #078
Dante will be "bombing" in round 2 indeed

Dropping bombs on Ryu
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/23/2010 12:44:00 AM | message detail | filter | #079
Dante tripled Laharl. Laharl is avoiding the doubling from Sora.

Dante is a BEAST

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/23/2010 1:39:07 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #080
Mega Man 61.66% 32305
Zack Fair 38.34% 20086
TOTAL VOTES 52391

Ryu Hayabusa 52.56% 39666
Master Chief 47.44% 35800
TOTAL VOTES 75466

Crew Predictions - 63/74

What Happened: MM easily disposes of Zack, starting off strong until Zack recovered a bit with the night vote. Then, Ryu jumped out ahead of Chief early, and while Chief cut down the percentage during the ASV, he never ended up cutting down Ryu's lead.

Why it Happened: Zack wasn't as strong as most thought! Him and Cid look to be solid upper-midcarders though (or MM is beastin' this year watch out Mario). As for the next match, Ryu is legit. This isn't a hot year for Chief and Halo, so Ryu was able to capitalize.

What will Happen: Mega Man should show us with Ryu really stands.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Most get 1

Kleenex - 67
Moltar - 66
Tran - 66
Red Sox - 65
Ngamer - 64
Lopen - 62
Guest - 61



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for MM and War gets the point for Ryu

Moltar - 14.5
Ngamer - 13
Tran - 12
Guest - 11.5 (Bio: 1.5, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 3, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 1, War: 1)
Lopen - 9
Red Sox - 8
Kleenex - 6
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Sora > Laharl (74/88)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
EyeBeeTeeBee | Posted 2/23/2010 7:34:54 AM | message detail | filter | #081
look out Lopen Guest is comin' for you!
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[~th3l3fty~]
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/23/2010 10:16:28 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #082
Heart Division: Round 2 - Match 78 – (5) Kefka vs. (4) Bowser

Moltar’s Analysis

Kefka
Round 1 - 60.57% vs. Arthas

A Kefka beatdown? What in the world…

Bowser
Round 1 - 63.22% vs. Frog

This result was actually expected.

I believe that Kefka’s R1 performance speaks more for Arthas sucking than Kefka boosting tremendously. If it’s the case that Arthas’s strength was only in four-ways, then Kefka is going to get exposed right here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Bowser > Arthas

Moltar’s Prediction: Kefka: 36% - Bowser: 64%



Lopen’s Analysis

This match would have a delicious upset train going for it if it were a night match, I think, after Kefka whooped that ass last round. And by "train" I mean "one or two crazy people who won't shut up."

But alas, it is the day, and like the moon over the day, kiddies hate creepy clown guys.

After seeing Magus and Corno lose so bad this contest, though, I think Kefka has it in him to outdo Frog, somehow. Bowser's performance last round was "up to par" to some, but this round we're gonna show he ain't up to par and he's raring to get stepped on by Sora and his big feet that dwarf Mario's.

Lopen's prediction:
Bowser with 61.61%



Transience’s Analysis

I've got a bad case of CLOWNFEAR. Something about Kefka just scares me this year. I shouldn't be worried about it because I've got a good amount of faith in Bowser, but Kefka just seems like he might be legit this year. I shouldn't buy this based on one 12 hour match with friggin' Arthas of all guys, but I still think Kefka might break 40% here.

This is a day match which should hamper Kefka pretty badly, but all those early voters will dilute his day struggles and Bowser's not great in the day either. I don't feel comfortable using this match to try and judge Bowser vs. Sora. Kefka could really make Bowser look bad.

transience's prediction: Bowser with 61.13%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Kefka had a pretty damned impressive showing last round, but he's not up against some untested schlub this time around. Bowser should make a fool out of Kefka here. It's a day match, and it's Bowser against Kefka.

It will be interesting to see if Bowser might be able to give Sora a run next round, though.

Bracket: Bowser
Favorites: Bowser
Prediction: Bowser with 65.46%



Red Sox’s Analysis

After years of failure, Kefka stomped Arthas last round with 60%. Is it a sign of a major Dissidia boost, or a better picture, or is it just Arthas being horribly overrated? My guess is that it was mostly the last of those, somewhat the second, and only a little bit the first. I still don't buy Kefka being stronger than Magus or Frog, and Bowser got 63% on Frog last round also in a day match, so let's go with:

Prediction: Bowser with 66.59%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Bowser with 70%
Lower Bound: Bowser with 61%



Guest’s Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

A lot of people seem surprised to see Kefka here, which baffles me because we’ve seen Kefka beat fodder before; it’s only when faced with an opponent with any strength that he collapses. My only guess is that people overestimated Arthas because of his SFF-aided advancement to Round 2. Of course, now he’s up against Bowser, who has tons of contest strength. Based on what we saw from Bowser in round 1 against a far stronger Square character…

Bowser with 72.33% of the vote



Crew Consensus: Bowser roasts Kefka
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/23/2010 10:21:49 AM | message detail | filter | #083
woah, guest is underestimating Kefka/overestimating Bowzer big time
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/23/2010 10:33:21 AM | message detail | filter | #084
One of my biggest fears being an Analysis Crew Guest is screwing up with the prediction. Heck, I did it twice!

But it seems I should really have nothing to fear.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/23/2010 10:34:17 AM | message detail | filter | #085
only one person went with the doubling? Wow, clownfear indeed.
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/23/2010 10:46:42 AM | message detail | filter | #086
Well, Sora is barely doubling LAHARL of all people. I would assume that Kefka is a bit stronger than that loser, and since Bowzer vs. Sora is heavily debated, I would assume that Kefka will avoid being doubled.
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/23/2010 10:52:42 AM | message detail | filter | #087
Quickie w/ Ng: Would love to support Kefka after his breakthrough performance, but a repeat seems so unlikely in a Day Match. On the plus side, this will be a great indicator of Heath Ledger-Joker's performance in the upcoming All Fictional Character battle!

Ngamer Says: Bowser > Kefka, 62.41%

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thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/23/2010 10:53:58 AM | message detail | filter | #088
Yeah, if Bowser does as well on Kefka as Sora is doing on Laharl or comes anywhere near it, Sora's toast.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/23/2010 10:55:34 AM | message detail | filter | #089
If a near elite can't double a fodder line character, he's not a near elite. Nuff said.
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/23/2010 11:12:48 AM | message detail | filter | #090
What's your take now?
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/23/2010 11:13:14 AM | message detail | filter | #091
He's not a near elite, duh.
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
transients | Posted 2/23/2010 11:15:12 AM | message detail | filter | #092
I have the most confidence in Bowser and went the lowest? I guess I just have the most respect for Kefka.
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xyzzy
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/23/2010 11:17:42 AM | message detail | filter | #093
I so should have signed up for this match. lol
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
transients | Posted 2/23/2010 11:26:11 AM | message detail | filter | #094
fortunately, Kefka has a stupid strong early vote so we'll get past this soon!
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/23/2010 11:29:23 AM | message detail | filter | #095
I dunno if Bowser will even get to 60%. He only went up 1% from the freeze to the end of the match with Frog.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/23/2010 11:30:11 AM | message detail | filter | #096
Bowser is toast next round.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
red sox 777 | Posted 2/23/2010 11:31:48 AM | message detail | filter | #097
Charizard winning this division confirmed.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/23/2010 11:32:51 AM | message detail | filter | #098
I'm waiting to see what the 'Zard does against Kratos first. He's certainly got a good opening after two underwhelming performances by Sora and Bowser (so far, Bowser's still got time to make this into a decent performance).
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
transients | Posted 2/23/2010 12:09:24 PM | message detail | filter | #099
I don't think this is all that bad because I don't know what to think of Kefka. I'd like it to be better, sure, but I wouldn't count him out.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/23/2010 12:10:40 PM | message detail | filter | #100
By the way, assuming Sora = Bowser (and giving Kefka 41% on Bowser as of right now), this is what you get:

Sora - 50.00%
Bowser - 50.00%
Kefka - 41.00%
Frog - 36.78%
Midna – 36.37%
Arthas Menethil - 32.33%
Laharl – 32.25%
Neku Sakuraba – 28.17%

Anything look off here?

Kefka gets a little more than 55% on Frog and Midna by this equation here.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."