GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
Hello once again! For those who are new here, the Contest Analysis Crew is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. Wish us luck, because we'll need it. Anyway, Introduction time! *On the morning of January 14th, three witches are sitting in a small room enjoying their Tea Party.* Moltar: So, did you two hear? It’s that time of the year again. Lopen: …Indeed, a new game is about to begin. What is the gameboard like this time? Moltar: It’s back to 1-on-1, this time, with 128 characters! Sounds interesting, riiiiiiight? I can’t wait to determine the results using my magic! Lopen: …Hmph, such a child you are, Moltar. Your magic means nothing. The results are determined by the voters. Moltar: Hoh! So you want to challenge me again, Lopen? I’ll create all the results, and you won’t be able to explain them with voters! They will be so unpredictable that everyone will be forced to accept my magic! The number of votes I can create are endless! I am the Voting Witch, Master Moltar! Lopen: …Very well, I, the Witch of Upsets, Lopen, accept your challenge. I don’t expect to be bored. Tran: Hey you two! What are you talking about! Let me in! Let me in! Moltar: It’s another game between Lopen and I. Will you be supporting me again, Tran? Tran: Naaaah, I’m tired of you, Moltar. And I would never be on Lopen’s side! Therefore, I, the Witch of Locks, Transience, will make my own side! Lopen: …Make your own side? I see you’re still a child too, Tran. At least you won’t make me bored though. Tran: Hehe, I love you Lopen! You’re so <cute>! Moltar: I want to invite someone in on this little game between us. Come forth, my finest servant, Ngamer. Ngamer: Ngamer here, at your service, Master Moltar. Moltar: Do you wish to participate in this game with us? Ngamer: Very well, I, Ngamer, will join. Let me warn you though, I am pretty good and figuring out the true results, pukuku. Lopen: …I see, now this is even more interesting. I shall bring a guest too. Kleenex, where are you? Kleenex: I’m right here, Lopen! Lopen: You will participate in this game as well. If you win, I’ll promote you to the rank of a Witch. You can be the Witch of Facts. *giggle* Kleenex: <Good>. That would be an honor! I, the great detective, KleenexTissue, will do my best! My skills are first-rate! Tran: Hey you two! I want to bring someone in too! Um…um…oh I know! I’ll bring in your teacher! Moltar: My teacher? You don’t mean- Tran: Hey red sox, get out here! Red Sox: Yes, Transience? Tran: You’re also going to join our game! I want you to do your best and beat your student. Red Sox: Is that alright with you, Moltar? Moltar: That fine with me! The more the merrier! I’ll make all of you submit to my voting magic! Red Sox: Very well, I, Red Sox, will also join the game. It’ll be more productive than spending time with and constantly getting teased by G- Moltar: Oh, there’s more thing. There will be more people joining us. Arise, Guests! Lopen: …The Guests? They aren’t exactly…the brightest, you know. Tran: Yeah! What’s up with that? They’re as dumb as Goats! Moltar: I think you two will be surprised. They can be really clever sometimes! One guest will also participate in each match of our game. Moltar: Anyway, I hope everyone is ready! I’ve already made a certain man lose the will to fight against me, and now it’s your turn! Prepare to submit to my Endless Voting magic, Readerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *glass breaks* |
E-mail: mastermoltar@gmail.com Current Guests Sora/Laharl - KamikazePotato Kefka/Bowser - TsunamiXXVIII L-Block/Isaac - GrapefruitKing Charizard/Kratos - i am the game Samus/Jill - LinkMarioSamus Roxas/Sub-Zero - KP Jecht/Ratchet - LeonhartFour Zelda/Ezio - FantasyFreak999 Cloud/Chris - Denzokuken Riku/Falcon - Biolizard Leon/Sackboy - EternalxCourage Ryu/Dante - ZFS Snake/Fox - PaulG235 Pikachu/Shepard - Auron/Zero - Chaotic Mind Terra/Squall - marsman57 Sephiroth/Vincent - Smashy Yoshi/Missingno - Luis Big Daddy/Ness - NGirl Tifa/Gordon - Luster Soldier --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Mario > Big Boss (68/80) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Mushroom Division: Round 2 - Match 76 – (7) Ryu Hayabusa vs. (2) Master Chief Moltar’s Analysis Ryu H. Round 1 - 61.79% vs. Crash This is awful Master Chief Round 1 - 60.22% vs. Spy This is…typical of the Chief Hayabusa a four-way wonder? It may be the case! Only 61% on Crash sends so many warning signs to me like you don’t even know. He may have looked pretty good in 2007 when he crushed Riku, or in 2008 when he beat out the favorite in R1, Zero, but his 1v1 stuff has never been great. While he did beat Zero in 4-ways, he lost 63-37 in 1v1 2 years before that. He also got spanked by Dante the year after that. This is just another underwhelming 1v1 showing from Hayabusa. Yes, backing Chief is never a sure sign, but it’s going to be harder for Ryu H to rally against Chief than it was for Valve character who’s a popular meme #34. Spy can make Chief look bad, but it’ll be harder for Hayabusa to do the same. (Plus, with the whole XBAWKS HIGHER-ARKHEE, people are sure to vote the flagship Chief over a second-stringer Ryu H!) Basically, between Ryu’s collapses against strong opponents in 1v1 and his numbers on Crash, I just can’t go with him here. This is his best chance for a good win yet, as Chief isn’t as strong as Zero or Dante or Snake. However, if all it takes for Ryu to collapse is a big name, then he’s finished here. Moltar’s Bracket: MC > Ryu H. Moltar’s Prediction: Ryu H: 47% - MC: 53% Lopen’s Analysis People fear Ryu here. I don't really see it. I still claim there's an XBox hierarchy, and despite Halo's disappointments since well, Halo 2, I'm pretty sure Chief still has it in him to step on some ninja. Chief didn't do too well last round, but the only explanation I can come up with is that cunning Spy disguised himself up as GAME FUEL. That or a Mudkip, because apparently the DO YOU LIEK MUDKIPZ faction was out in full force. ... hey why isn't Mudkip in the bracket? Strange! But yeah, despite looking like crap last round I think Master Chief takes this one. Not even really cause there's a hierarchy, just cause he's just plain stronger than Ryu. Zero fanboyz need to take their upset pick somewhere else, especially after Hayabusa laid that turd against Crash Bandicoot. Actually I was kinda bluffing. Despite all logic I can think of saying otherwise, I believe Master Chief must have a nailbiter every contest and somehow this will be the one now that Mega Man's out of his reach. PROVE ME WRONG, CHIEF! INVINCIBLE RIGHT? RIGHT?!!?! Lopen's prediction: Master Chief with 50.27% Transience’s Analysis This is a pretty big match. Master Chief is one of those guys that is impossible to really get a good read on. He's so variable. Sometimes he beats a guy down and sometimes he looks utterly terrible. We're talking about a dude who got 65% on Yuna one year and then 59% against Kain Highwind the next. What's he going to do this year? I think the Halo brand is on the downswing. Call of Duty has utterly crushed it over the last few years. 360 favouritism has gone down, Halo ODST got like 14 votes in the GOTY poll, and nobody is really all that excited about Halo Reach. All of this has led to a clear post-Halo 3 drop for Master Chief. If you believe that Master Chief gets anti-voted, then that just makes things worse. |
On
the flipside, we've got Ryu Hayabusa. In just the last two years he's
had a new mainline game, a DS game and a port of Ninja Gaiden 2 to the
PS3 with all sorts of new content. Hayabusa is very clearly on the
rise. His series isn't the most popular on GameFAQs but everyone knows
him and action game characters never have super popular games. Dante is
strong but Devil May Cry is weak. Same with God of War. Ryu Hayabusa
isn't on their level, but he doesn't have to be to beat Master Chief.
Master Chief just isn't very strong. Master Chief has two main arguments going for him. The first is that this is a day match and Master Chief is a day vote god. However, this perception is overblown because of how insane Master Chief was in 2007 - his day vote was worse than Spy's last round. Spy has a terrible day vote, too. I think 4chan or Steam or someone rallied against Master Chief last round, but if that's what happened then why wouldn't it happen again this round? Master Chief got destroyed by rallying in that Gamespot contest. He's always going to be on the bad side of rallying, and from what I've seen, pretty much everyone likes Hayabusa. The other argument is that there's some kind of "Microsoft hierarchy" and that Master Chief is just higher than Hayabusa. Basically, it's saying that Master Chief is Mario and Ryu Hayabusa is Samus. This is so incredibly stupid that I struggle to come up with a reason why. They're not even in the same league - different companies, different genres, different appeal. On top of that, Hayabusa's newfound strength has come from him branching out to more platforms. Getting away from the 360 has made him stronger. Why would Hayabusa suddenly get SFFed by Master Chief? Ugh. So yeah, I'm backing Hayabusa in a big way here. transience's prediction: Ryu Hayabusa with 55.59% Ngamer’s Analysis Quickie w/ Ng: Feel awful taking MC after '06, but at least Subby recently justified himself as a 1v1 stud; Hayabusa seems less likely to do the same. Ngamer Says: MC > The Other Ryu, 51.41% Kleenex’s Analysis Ryu didn't really impress in his round 1 match. Master Chief didn't really impress in his round 1 match. Ryu looked really good one year in the 4-ways. Master Chief looked really good one year in the 4-ways. Etc etc. I'm going to stick with my bracket this time in hopes that it will come through for me again, but it probably won't because that's how my luck works. Bracket: Chief Favorites: Chief Prediction: Chief with 52.01% Red Sox’s Analysis When I first saw this match in the bracket, I immediately picked Ryu Hayabusa. I was somewhat surprised to see later on that Chief was the big favorite on the board. Ryu winning this made sense- he fit in with people who have beaten Chief before like Sub-Zero and Frog, and with those who had gotten close to him before, like Donkey Kong and Felix. Hayabusa actually beat Zero last year, quite an impressive feat. Both of these characters looked awful in round 1, so nothing really has changed. The counterargument is that Chief has looked different since 2007. But really, he only looked much stronger in 2007 and fell back most of the way to his old levels in 2008. You can argue that even in 2008 he was still stronger than he used to be, and still stronger than Hayabusa, but after seeing Vivi thrash Altair and Big Boss get blasted by Mario, the 2008 comparison looks pretty close too. Prediction: Ryu Hayabusa with 51.11% Upset Potential: 40% Upper Bound: Ryu with 56% Lower Bound: Chief with 54% Crew Consensus: Ryu has 2 supporters, but everyone else is drinking the GAME FUEL. |
Tran/red sox have the right idea here. Hayabusa got this. Good winner either way, though! --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Ouch, sorry about being so late with this, my prediction will be up in a minute. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Pre-Match: Hayabusa wins, Chief'll choke. Post-Hayabusa/Crash: Chief wins, Hayabusa sucks. Post-Chief/Spy: Why couldn't Cecil have gotten this four-pack in a night match? Hayabusa sucks less with 52.34% --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Emergency Guest Clan Fill-In Analysis Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief both looked awful last round. I fear Hayabusa just excels in 4-ways, but I still don't have any respect for the Chief. This shouldn't be a blowout one way or the other since these guys barely got 60% on two guys clearly weaker than both Chief and Hayabusa. XBox Hierarchy is dumb. Leonhart's Vote: Hayabusa Leonhart's Anticipation Level: High. This is a big match, and I've been pushing Hayabusa > Chief since day 1. Leonhart's Prediction: Ryu Hayabusa with 51.97% --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Oh, never mind then! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Hayabusa backup support! --- xyzzy |
I feel like Chief has every advantage going into this match except for one: the fact that he is Master Chief. And that just might be enough to lose. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
I dunno, I don't think Chief gets the joke vote! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Master Chief is a joke, so yeah he does. --- xyzzy |
I have Ryu in my bracket, but... I dunno. I've always been indecisive about who to pick in this match. --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
From: Transience’s Analysis I think 4chan or Steam or someone rallied against Master Chief last round, but if that's what happened then why wouldn't it happen again this round? TF2 is to /v/ what Ace Attorney is to Board 8. Of course they'll vote for anyone over MC, but I don't think Ryu will benefit from rallying as much as Spy did - not that he'll necessarily even need it. --- Now, to touch the Logic Button and recall the facts. |
guns vs swords, hmm who wins? --- Shakes Fist! |
^Just look at today's match Hell, just look at the ending of Crisis Core. --- Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING |
why didn't Heavy get that same love then? I know Spy is more popular amongst the /v/ types than Heavy is, but still. --- xyzzy |
I
would love to see Hayabusa with nearly 56% but I can't see it
happening. Either Chief wins easily or Hayabusa wins by a hair, can't
see this turning out any other way. --- No match for KrahenProphet's extreme Guru skills. |
Heavy didn't get the same love? Did you see those trends and vote totals for his match? --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
that was a heavy Roxas board vote, not a day vote that was better than Master Chief's. Hayabusa staying in this -- reminds me of the Sub-Zero match! --- xyzzy |
C'mon Hayabusa --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
g'bye, Chief --- xyzzy |
Heavy was rallied so badly in the beginning that after it stopped Roxas handily won the night vote. It was extremely obvious. Also, nice job chief --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
WHERE IS YOUR HIERARCHY NOW, XBOX --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
ahh, vindication. I love the Chief. --- xyzzy |
man, I wish I had stuck with my initial 55.54% for Hayabusa --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
this'll get closer. Draco was right, 55% was a bit too optimistic. this feels just like the Sub-Zero match with Chief killing the bracket vote and then instantly dying off. --- xyzzy |
Just wait till the kiddies wake up. ... come home from school Whatever. COMEBACK IMMINENT. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'm
actually a little worried here even if I shouldn't be. Chief could
probably get this down to 51% if his great day vote returns, but
Hayabusa's also got a nice day vote so we'll see. still, I never feel
comfortable with the Chief. --- xyzzy |
If
his great day vote returns he could straight out win. It's not like his
deficit is any higher than stuff he's come back from before. Main concern is that Ryu managed to build this lead in just over two hours. Either a high concentration of the night vote votes early in day matches or Chief is hosed. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'd
think coming back from a 1500 vote deficit would be harder when the
votes are 55/45 instead of 52/48 or whatever it would be if it were a
24 hour match. also, I would expect more 'night votes' to occur in a 12
hour match since those people wouldn't be around to vote early because
of school or work or whatever. pretty sure Hayabusa is safe, but I never count the Chief out. that said, I can't think of a match where he's actually come back recently. the last one was Donkey Kong and that's Donkey Kong. --- xyzzy |
Yeah.
He needs a bigger percentage swing and I don't think he'll get it here.
But we really don't have a clear grasp on day vote vs night vote trends
yet so it could still happen in theory. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'd be surprised if Chief came back from this. That'd be a pretty wild swing for this contest. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
I
imagine Sub-Zero and Hayabusa's day votes probably aren't that much
different, and Chief averaged 51.72% in the ASV in a match where
Sub-Zero had a little less than 53% going into it. Hayabusa's at a
higher percentage now than Sub-Zero was going into ASV time. Chief did
manage to cut around 1800 votes, but I don't really expect that this
time. His ASV won't be as strong because he doesn't have an ultra weak
night vote to bring him low enough for his ASV to wreck stuff. Sub-Zero
averaged 54.5% during the night vote on Chief. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
For
what it's worth, in DK/Chief (on a Sunday), Chief stalled DK for around
two hours before cutting consistently, and then took six hours to take
the lead. Even if that were to start happening right now, Chief would
need to consistently cut well into the night vote to beat Hayabusa. And if he *only* follows the trends of Chief/Sub-Zero, he won't move enough % to do much more than stall. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Augh Leon. Is this revenge for getting my write-up in before the emergency guest one? --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Oh ho ho! But at the rate this match is going, it looks like the Guest will get the accuracy point for this one, so good job! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Eh.
You can't really use 24 hour trends here because I don't think
percentages have stabilized yet. Chief swinging more percentage makes
sense here, but still. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Nah,
you can't use 24 hour trends here, but you can't expect 12 hour trends
to be more extreme either. If anything, Chief will do worse. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Maybe.
I'm just saying Chief could start pulling a mere 50.5% during the ASV
and it'd still be a close match given we've got a lot less votes going
into it. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Speaking of which, the vote totals for this match are awful. Hayabusa just drains the well dry, for some reason. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Hayabusa clearly killing Chief voters before they get the chance to sign on. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
No one's voted yet Clearly that means Chief has this --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
yeah, this is definitely over. Hayabusa's gonna bleed percentage though. --- xyzzy |
Looks like the Guest (both of them!) wins again. --- :> |
At this rate, Chief may not even win an hour. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
I'm pretty sure this is still the biggest day vote swing we've seen all contest. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
MASTER CHIEF YOU ARE THE WORST EVER --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
