GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
No guest again? May as well fill in at the last minute again. FantasyFreak999's guest replacement writeup Last round, I picked Red to move into round 2, but I was REALLY worried. Turns out I had reason to be, as he just scraped by. Now, it's never been a question about X moving onto round 3, but we have to figure out by how much. I wouldn't pick X to wallop Ocelot, but he'd win by a good margin. Now that we see that Red is at Ocelot's level, we can expect the same result... unless SFF comes into play. Not sure how much it'll be a factor though... X - 61.63% --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
Still
think people are cutting MMX too much slack for that round 1
performance, especially after how bad Soap and MacMillan looked. Sure,
I can buy Price being the strongest, but he'd have to be a LOT stronger
for MMX to be in Mega Man's range. I don't see Price giving Cid a run
for his money. Heck, I'd hesitate to pick him over Master Chief. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup As I write this there's 40 minutes left and Link is 0.03% away from landing me my first ever perfect Oracle. Which makes you wonder... perhaps this was Alucard's Plan all along?! Anyways, last night I was all prepared to announce that Link had officially got his groove back; he'd quickly pushed the lead into the mid 73s and looked like he might even take a stab at 75 with a little Morning Vote assistance. Ever since that opening hour, however, Alucard's ended up being the one to impress me, cutting over 2% overnight versus the most dominant ("non-joke") force GameFAQs has ever seen. Plus he's doing much better than I expected here in the morning. I'd say this guy has definitely earned a return trip for 2011- here's hoping we see him slotted against a Kingdom Hearts character in a Night Match! Alright, time to crank things up a notch with the first debatable matchup of the Round. Well, semi-debatable at least. Mizno's big shocker seems to have rejuvenated interest in this Contest, as votals have been sky high in every match since. Now if some of those extra votes are coming from Pokemon fans who've had their interest piqued and decided to stick around, and considering how sub-par MMX looked in being challenged by the same shooter series that has dropped the ball ever since... Nay, still can't justify the upset. Everything we've ever seen has indicated that MMX ~= MM, both as a series and for the characters themselves, so despite "something weird" having happened against Price I'm expecting X to bounce back with a performance more in line with what the other 3 MMers have delivered. Also, it's becoming increasingly clear that everything Pokemon is on nostalgia-steroids this year, so moving away from the first generation is going to weaken you considerably (Pika, Char, and Miz all went with classic pics and looked like world-beaters). And yet here's Red once again sporting that hit or miss Brawl look! Yeah, just can't imagine him having enough aces up his sleeve to shock us, but on the other hand I'd feel mighty foolish betting against Pokemon right now, especially in a Day Match, so let's say... high 50s! Ngamer Says: Mega Man X > Red, 59.69% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
We've got X just .06 above the 60 mark at the freeze. Could we be seeing it... an unprecedented* third consecutive Accuracy win for Ngamer? I'll keep you posted! Now let's see where the last one ended up... CRAP, Link went into Beast Mode and rose .13 in those last 40 minutes. Double crap, he cost me a Top Five Oracle by .01! Ah well, at least I'll only be a point back of Moltar after today. *probably not unprecedented --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Looks like I hit it dead on! lol --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
yeah,
X is not strong. I don't think he was ever that great either, he was
just lucky to get that Mario path last year. Zack is probably next on
the path to getting exposed. --- xyzzy |
45% on Mega Man comin' right up! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Hyrule Division: Round 2 - Match 67 – (3) Luigi vs. (6) Amaterasu Moltar’s Analysis Luigi Round 1 - 65.70% vs. Meta Knight Suck it Brawl tiers Amaterasu Round 1 - 52.59% vs. Shadow the Hedgehog Shadow ;_; So the better Ammy does here, the better Shadow looks? Well then, let’s hope she does really well here! I mean, back in 2008, Ammy did do respectably on the guy who broke the Noble Nine streak (too soon?) Luigi’s got this match though. Ammy vs. MK sounds like an interesting match, and it’s easy to see that MK suffered a good amount of SFF in their match. Therefore, she should do a good deal better I think. Moltar’s Bracket: Luigi > Ammy Moltar’s Prediction: Luigi: 59% - Ammy: 41% Lopen’s Analysis Luigi is a coward. However, Shadow the Hedgehog is so cowardly he didn't even show up to the match. Instead, he's got his guard dog doing his business, and that dog isn't actually fit to be a guard dog. Basically Ammy's going to talk about how painting is so elegant and delightful while listening to boring oriental mood music and Luigi's going to sneak on by. Will Luigi be stopped? Well considering the next one set to guard his path is a cube methinks not. Lopen's prediction: Luigi with 67.91% Transience’s Analysis It's time to finally test Amaterasu. For two-plus years, she's had excuses. She went against Little Mac and Matt and was basically the least bad of the three. Then she went against Ada Wong and Balthier and the real story was how bad those two were. In 2008 she faced Crono, Frank West and Kaim and did pretty well, but mostly because she had awful competition. This year, she faced a Shadow that's been bombing to all hell and pulled off a nice upset. Finally, Amaterasu gets a no-excuses matchup. Luigi is the definition of stable. There's no backlash there, no questions about his strength. If Amaterasu can clear 40% here then she's got my respect as a midcarder for a long damn time. After everything she's done so far, I have a hard time saying that she can't do it. She proves me wrong every freaking time so I'm just going to begrudgingly admit that this dog is worth a damn. transience's prediction: Luigi with 60.60% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Luigi > Ammy, 63.62% Kleenex’s Analysis (1) Luigi vs. (8) Amaterasu I forget the seeds but you leave that part out of my writeups anyway, and I'm late enough as it is. WRITEUP STARTS HERE Luigi has a stupid picture. I mean, it makes sense based on the theme, but he's a disembodied head. Creepy. So, Ammy did well for herself last round (and the past two years, really), but she's up against someone out of he league here. Luigi had a bum run last year and got all JACKED UP by SFF. His path isn't that much more interesting this year either, but at least we should get an "exciting" Green vs. Green battle in a couple rounds. I'm interested to see how well Ammy holds up against Luigi here. Probably rather well, but I don't really know what that means in terms of percentages. Hmm... Bracket: Luigi Favorites: Mr. L Prediction: Palette Swap with 65.34% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Amaterasu has always outperformed her expectations, and I think it's time to stop doubting her stats- she's as strong as they say she is. Meanwhile, Luigi looked like he fell off considerably last year with only 54% on Liquid Snake in round 1 last year, a performance backed up by him needing a huge majority of Bowser's votes in round 2 to get back to the same margin over Liquid in round 2. This match is a night match, which gives Ammy another reason to do well, and finally, Ammy has a nice picture advantage here with Luigi (from Luigi's Mansion) looking frightened. Prediction: Luigi with 56.00% Upset Potential: 5% Upper Bound: Luigi with 62% Lower Bound: Luigi with 52% Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera On one side of this battle we have Luigi, who I guess looking at my oracle prediction from round 1, did near enough exactly what I expected him to against Meta Knight. MK is decent, and Luigi put a slight amount of the SFF boosters into blowing him away. He’s looking good, no doubt about that, although he’s one of the many top 30 or so characters with a path very much se in stone. He’ll make the 4th round, but that’s where Link comes in. Ammy on the other hand was the slight underdog against Shadow, and ground out a comfortable win in the end, but knowing Sonic Team these days, it probably does little more than confirm her as a low midcarder. Ammy loses here, without a ‘shadow’ of a doubt, so it’s all about looking as good as possible. She probably gets her strength from her design and the original PS2 version more than anything Wii related, so I doubt Luigi SFF’s her. This is a good chance to get a nice read on her strength since Luigi has no real reason to have shifted dramatically over the last couple of years. As for Luigi, he probably has X’s percentage on Link to aim to beat, but before then, there is a wolf and (probably) a cube in the way! Luigi with 64.4% Crew Consensus: Luigi sends Ammy off to a haunted mansion. |
damnit moltar --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Oh man, tran's analysis is the very definition of sour grapes --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
I just realized Red picked Red Man that may beat my worst pick! I will defeat you, Sox! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Don't worry, you have me beat in upsets by a huge margin. I only have 8 risks compared to the Guru Cookie this year. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
I actually only have like 19 this year. Very subpar year by my standards for upset picking. Though what I lose in quantity I make up for in point value. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Lopen | #264 Except for that whole Kratos > Sora thing >_> --- Currently 36th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^ Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING |
Kratos > Sora is worth a lot of points...! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I don't know what I was thinking not taking any upsets in round 4 or later. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
So tranny, you finally believe in Ammy now? --- holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee |
Link 71.79% 43055 Alucard 28.21% 16916 TOTAL VOTES 59971 Pokemon Trainer Red 38.84% 30180 Mega Man X 61.16% 47532 TOTAL VOTES 77712 Crew Predictions - 55/64 What Happened: Link domination, MMX also shows us that Red is no big deal. Why it Happened: After going head-to-head with Ocelot, most people weren't expecting anything great from Red. Throw in some potential SFF and you get this. What will Happen: Link is going to kill X Crew Prediction Challenge - pointz Kleenex - 60 Moltar - 58 Tran - 57 Red Sox - 56 Ngamer - 56 Lopen - 54 Guest - 52 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Ngamer gets the point for Link and Guest gets the point for X Ngamer - 12 Moltar - 10.5 Tran - 10 Guest - 9 (Bio: 1, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 2, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 1) Lopen - 9 Red Sox - 7.5 Kleenex - 6 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > Ammy (60/68) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Amaterasu's legit, folks! --- xyzzy |
Well done Moltar.You prediction is almost perfect at this point. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Man, if I'd seen that match pic before submitting my write-up I might have lowered my percentage for Luigi a little! --- "Eet's game time..." |
Hyrule Division: Round 2 - Match 68 – (7) Weighted Companion Cube vs. (2) The Boss Moltar’s Analysis Cube Round 1 - 78.10% vs. Sandal That beatdown is no joke. The Boss Round 1 - 52.37% vs. Nathan Drake Nathan Drake, however, is still a joke. For some reason I have The Boss winning here in my bracket. Guess I should have double-checked it before lockdown. If that opening line didn’t give you a giant hint as to who I think will win, let me spell it out for you. Cube killed his opponent, and jokes have been looking fine so far. L did as expected. Missingno did okay I guess. The Boss barely beat Nathan Drake, who definitely did get stronger since his last appearance in these Contests, just not enough to get him out of the fodder zone. Meanwhile, Cube’s beatdown on Sandal was definitely legit strength. Plus it’s gone toe-to-toe with Tidus before and I’d take him over The Boss easy. Moltar’s Bracket: The Boss > Cube (whoops) Moltar’s Prediction: Cube: 60% - The Boss: 40% Lopen’s Analysis I actually have The Boss winning here... but truth be told I regretted that ever since bracket lockdown. The Boss winning would be pretty cool-- you have to think she has a chance considering it's a Box. Knowing everything about Naked Snake, you know she's got some good anti-Box tech, but I'm thinking it's not enough. Not after squeaking by Nathan Drake when the Cube destroyed uh... whatever the heck it fought in r1. Oh. "ENCHANTMENT" That doesn't really count. Still MissingNo looked quite 4REAL so you can't say jokes are weaker here. Lopen's prediction: Cube 2, Hypercube with 60.04% Transience’s Analysis transience's guide to beating cubes, blocks and glitches in a character battle: 1. universal recognizability 2. minimal amount of backlash / negativity 3. some decent intrinsic strength -- if you're going to lose to Alucard, you don't qualify 4. the earlier you face them, the better; a round 2 cube is weaker than a round 5 cube, for example The Boss fails at #1 and fails worse at #3. She's going to lose this match badly. (for the record, I think a guy like Luigi or Yoshi are among the best guys to dispatch these kinds of characters. I'll go out on a limb and say that Yoshi is the hardest match Missingno has until Solid Snake. This includes Crono. He's just too universal and liked. Luigi/Cube is another one I'm really looking forward to for the same reason.) transience's prediction: Weighted Companion Cube with 61.41% Kleenex’s Analysis I have Nathan Drake here. Whoops. I don't think anyone can seriously consider The Boss as a contender in this match, and if they are they're just fighting the inevitable. Cube's performance last round was no joke, even if it was Sandal. Boss is going to get Cube'd so hard here. Actually, that sounds like something Lopen would write, so I'll leave the fanfic to him. Bracket: Nathan Drake Favorites: The Boss Prediction: WCC with 66.92% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Our joke characters have shown us in round 1 that they are for real, and they were not 4-way creations. Therefore, Cube should be about as strong as it was in the 2008 contest. In round 1, that was about the level of Tidus, but Cube looked like a genuine near-elite in round 4, putting up 39% on Snake and 33% on Cloud. I'll assume he got bandwagoned a bit during the contest and base my prediction off his round 1 performance. The Boss got 29% on Vincent back in 2007, and is probably stronger now, but also has a bad picture here, so let's go with my estimate of Vincent's strength relative to Cloud as my prediction: Prediction: Weighted Companion Cube with 63.00% Upset Potential: 3% Upper Bound: WCC with 68% Lower Bound: WCC with 58% Guest’s Analysis - PaulG235 Man, my predictions on the crew analysis suck. First, I pick Phoenix to win, then I pick Gordon to get 65%. I need my contest reputation to get back in order, and this match is a good way to make that happen. Anyway, this match easily goes to The Cube. While Sandal sucks ass, it's still nice to see the Cube to easily win blowouts. The Boss had a good win up her sleeves in Round 1, but it's Nathan Drake. She proved to us that Nathan is at best a fodderline character. He's basically the Commander Shepard of the PS3 in terms of strength. The Boss may have looked good so far in the contest via vote-ins and Drake, but she has no chance in scaring the Cube. The Cube may be a joke character, but it's a upper-midcarder of one. And with there being the 3 joke characters killing the field, I don't see how the Cube can fail us, here. Anywhere in the low 60's seems very likely. This fourpack is weaksauce, and unless the jokes all get huge bandwagons, the Cube will drop in Round 3. But I swear, if the Weighted Companion Cube somehow LOSES this match, two things. The first being that The Boss is no joke and the MGS3 characters have gotten a boost (for whatever reason) and Nathan actually looks a lot better (and it'll further explain how Raiden lost to Boss in the vote-ins). The second being I'm calling for L's and MissingNo's heads in future rounds. Block's chances to make it to Round 4 may be bleak, but they'll be even bleaker if Cube somehow loses here. And while Missingno's a completely different joke animal, I'll probably give Sephiroth a chance in R3. Of course, that won't happen. I'm certainly not going to be wrong here. The Boss breaks 60% at best, at worst she gets doubled. I think Cube gets around 63%. Prediction: Weighted Companion Cube Oracle: 63.17% My Vote: The Boss Crew Consensus: Cube shows The Boss…who’s boss |
Crew Curse Alert Man, my predictions on the crew analysis suck. First, I pick Phoenix to win, then I pick Gordon to get 65%. I need my contest reputation to get back in order, and this match is a good way to make that happen. Even more Crew Curse Alert. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 57/68 - Today's Winners: Luigi and The Boss |
Quickie w/ Ng: Don't believe the hype. Ngamer Says: WCC > The Boss, 60.92% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
c'mon crew curse --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
The Boss for 60% --- who needs a dick when you're good at smash brothers - stingers Now this is entertainment! |
Wow, everyone has Cube over 60% here. I thought someone would take the Boss, not all have a blowout match. --- http://i50.tinypic.com/2ew1hz7.jpg I Am Albion Hero! |
Good showing here from The Boss. --- :> |
Thank
you Crew, for you have done a good thing. You have given The Boss a
fighting chance against WCC by predicting her downfall. Continue to use
your powers for good! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Missingno's performance somehow looks even more impressive now --- [~th3l3fty~] I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Wow, I really thought the Cube would do better here. Perhaps there is still hope for this contest after all. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Alright, it's official, the crew curse officially affects my picks when I'm the guest. --- The Gamer In Me "Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream |
augh I have Nathan here too --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
whoa, Cube bomb! there's hope for real characters yet! --- xyzzy |
From: transience | #286 You do realize that this means that Missingno is legit --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Missingno is the hip, new joke in town. Cube and L are old farts. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I'm
not sure what that means! no one was doubting that Missingno had
strength, but if you mean it's a regular character that's linear and
has normal character trends, then I'd disagree. --- xyzzy |
Missingno. is new and exciting enough to hold more attention from the mindless rats that vote for the jokes, that's all. --- :> |
How badly does Tidus beat the Boss, then? How about Tidus/Tails? --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
Moltar just price is right'd me, dammit. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Man, this makes Sandal look AWFUL. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Well, even more awful than we thought! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Moltar just price is right'd me, dammit. Well, technically, you price is right'd him, since you went higher. Just sayin. :p --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
Technically, I think a Price is Right'D moment would be if Moltar went 50% and you went 50.01% essentially guaranteeing he can't win unless we get a Frog/MC match. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Wouldn't 50% be a $1, and a 50.01% be a $2? --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
From: GTM | #297 Yep, which would be a Price is Right'D moment. Stupid people who bid $1 but aren't the last person. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Well, everyone here picks simultaneously, so the real lesson is: don't pick someone to win with 50.01%! --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
LOL Ngamer --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
