GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
I never cared about Geno --- http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/ii49/superangelo128/Shannonwater.jpg |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Dang, what a nice showing from Big Daddy. I imagine most people aren't putting much stock in this 60+ performance, assuming 90% of it can be chalked up to Soap being a piece of trash, but I'm not so sure. We already have quite a few examples of crazy stuff happening when a character gets a perfectly timed release: Mario > Cloud is the obvious one, but I believe Sub-Zero also got a new game in '06 when he blindsided us, and of course we saw Shepard look like a Noble Niner (*sniff*) for 12 hours only a week back. I could see BD having been legitimately boosted to above the fodder line by all the hype and the influx of fans. Even so, you have to wonder how much of that boost is still going to be in effect three weeks from now... and would even 100% of it be enough to knock off his next opponent? Which of course brings us to the R1 slugfest that has EVERYONE talking! Over in an alternate dimension where Ness was cut from the Melee and Brawl rosters, that is. Personally, that's a dimension I would love to exist in- I've always hated playing against Ness in any game past Smash 64, plus it would be a great way to even the tables in this poll. Because if you think about... no one would seriously consider an Earthbound over Mario RPG upset, would they? And sure Ness gets credit for being the main, but Geno's enough of a favorite within the fanbase that I could easily see SNES RPG SFF coming into play and sweeping him to victory. Especially when you consider how his strength has almost certainly been undervalued through the years (he got a raw deal in facing a fellow Square RPGer in Squall, then got placed in a 4way with... Squall, AND Aeris. seriously, SB!) The two problems with that train of thought are that #1 Geno has one pic, and it's AWFUL. (Could we please get some new official art for this guy some year, Nintendo? Spend some of that Aussie pirate money to requisition a new artist IMO. Or does Square own the Geno rights now? If so, put him in KH3!) And #2, Ness does have SSB on his side, and like it or not, that's pretty much all that matters against someone so low on the Nintendo totem poll. He also has the added advantage of being able to rely on that super small but extremely dedicated Earthbound fanbase should Geno somehow make a game of it into the final updates. Not that I'm expecting that to happen- but if I were red sox, that factor would be enough to lower the "Upset Possibility" on this one from 10% to about 5 or so. Alright, so watch for Ness to try to push this into the 60s, final answer! Ngamer Says: Ness > Geno, 59.51% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Jenova Division: Round 1 - Match 63 – (7) Yuri Lowell vs. (10) Tifa Lockhart Moltar’s Analysis Yuri Yes please. Tifa Yuri AND boobs? This sounds amazing So Kratos lost to a Sack and Lloyd got embarrassed by Fox. Symphonia characters sux. So how will a guy that is well-liked like Kratos and the main character like Lloyd fair? Terribly. Symphonia is most likely the strongest Tales game, and the game is far stronger than the characters. Tifa will steamroll-stomp here. Moltar’s Bracket: Tifa > Yuri Moltar’s Prediction: Yuri: 26% - Tifa: 74% Lopen’s Analysis I keep lookin at this match and bein like "didn't we see this already time to write some filler fanfiction." Then I realize it's some other Yuri from a Tales game. Tales has looked like junk this contest. Vesperia might do better as a result of being more recent-- or it might just do even worse cause it's not as stand out a title as Symphonia was. Thinkin we'll see a Tifa underperformance here more than Yuri being respectable. Who cares, though. Lopen's prediction: Tifa with 75% Transience’s Analysis We've seen this match before: in 2005, when people still thought Vyse was worth something, Tifa went and nearly quadded him, prompting people to overreact and say she was going to storm through the main bracket. Now we've got a similar situation, Tifa vs. an obscure RPG character, only the obscure RPG character is obscurer and FF7 has dropped off a bit as well. What I'm trying to say is that we'll probably get a repeat of that exact match. Hell, I'll even predict the exact percentage. transience's prediction: Tifa with 78.07% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Tifa > Yuri, 75.87% Kleenex’s Analysis YURI LOWELL Can you believe we're halfway through this thing already? Admittedly, my interest has kinda dipped after last night, but time has been going by fast. The last day of round 1 has historically been really wacky, so it should be interesting to see if that holds up this year. First up, we have another Tales character vs. someone who's at least a top 20 character in these things. Certain people will have you believe that if people had actually played Vesperia Yuri would storm this bracket (spoilers: he wouldn't!) Yuri is a pretty good character, though, so it's a bit of a shame that he's going to get annihilated here, but such is the fate of a Tales character. He's also not a woman, just in case there are people who still aren't aware of that. Bracket: Tifa Favorites: Yuri Prediction: Tifa with 72.11% |
Red Sox’s Analysis The first round winds up with a blowout tonight and then a match that is probably an easy win tomorrow afternoon, but would have had a different result a few years ago. There's not much to say about Tifa vs. Yuri. Apparently this is Yuri Lowell and not Yuri Hyuga who got 12% on Samus back in 2005- does it matter? This is going to be a blowout- the only question is how bad it will be. I don't like how Mario has the blowout of the contest so far with only 81% (such an absurdly low percentage for blowout of the first round), so I'll predict Tifa to take it away from him on the last day of the round. Prediction: Tifa with 82% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Tifa with 86% Lower Bound: Tifa with 76% Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato As much as I want Yuri to do well here, he's going to get blown the hell out. I thought for a bit that Yuri could make this semi-respectable, then I looked at past results and say that 2k5 Vyse got 21% on Tifa and 2k6 The Boss got tripled. Stupid Tifa. Yuri doesn't even really get the anti-FF7 stigma that seems to be happening as he's the higher seed and thus not the clear underdog to casuals. Even his fans agree that his design sucks and looks like a girl, and against Tifa, that's not good. He also doesn't even get to dominate the early vote, as Tifa's is good for whatever reason. In fact, as Vesperia is a 360 game, it's probably better in the day than in the night anyway, so Tifa gets her best time against Yuri. In summary, this match sucks. Yuri has absolute no factors going his way to make himself look decent, and he's probably already below Lloyd in strength. He's not going to be the next Luke or Jade, but sadly Vesperia just doesn't have a high-enough playrate on GameFAQs. Well, he does have one thing going for him: he's awesome. Not in a Jade "He's a fan favorite" sort of way, Yuri is both the main character and easily the most popular Tales character ever within the fanbase. If a poll was held and restricted only to people who had played all the games, Yuri would murder everyone else. That gives me a bit of hope here. Also, I am a fanboy. Yuri with 27% I refuse to list Tifa's percent as I refuse to acknowledge her as a character Crew Consensus: Tifa engages in some Yuri and everyone wins. |
aw yeah KP's Tifa hating is in full-force tonight --- holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee |
yuri is gonna get 30% Believe --- http://cache-07.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/500x_lp2_x10_005.jpg I Am Albion Hero! |
And I *still* didn't go the highest with Yuri, damnit Kleenex --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
muahaha --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
We need some Tifa love in here! Yeehaw! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup After that Alucard/Liquid Snake match I thought I'd never use the words "Ness" and "impressive" in the same sentence. After this performance, though... well I don't know if I'd go THAT far, but if you hold Geno constant from '07 this does boost Ness up to around 22%, which is certainly higher than I thought we've ever see him again. Even if you factor in a little SFF (why is a competitive, entertaining Nintendo/Nintendo match such an impossibility? I mean I understand that the big series are too universal to allow for pronounced vote swings, but even a broken clock is right twice a day- and we've seen like 1324 NvN polls now!), that still leaves Ness right in that same area as hype-boosted Big Daddy. That one's looking so close that I think I'll have to give the edge to whoever drew the right time of day. *checks* Ohhh, another Night Match! Okay, I'm calling BD a slight favorite, but that should be a good one. Ugh, for the first time all season I just had to pull a wiki search to figure out who a character even was. But I'm still confused- isn't "yuri" slang for some kind of sex act? Are Japanese developers so isolated from their own language that it seems like a good idea to keep using this name for their new characters? *looks it up* Ah HA, it's lesbianism! In that case I take it all back- considering Japan's current non-casual gaming demographic, these guys are marketing geniuses. So anyways, Tifa's bringing back that super cute pose she used to nearly destroy the Noble Nine (*sniff*) back in '06, but I'm not sure it will have maximum effect tonight, since ol' Lezbo over there is looking pretty good as well. ...wait, that's a MAN? Gross, this match just keeps getting worse and worse. Now I'm too disgusted to even finish this writeup, sooooo, Tales is eww, low 80s = good pick any year but 2010, FF7 still anti-voted, Tifa less so for some reason, 75-78 range a good bet. Ngamer Says: Tifa > Yuri, 75.87% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Yuri is also a Russian boy name and a Japanese girl name. You sick freak. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Well,
here comes KH2 Tifa I suppose. I resolved to joke vote for Freeman if
he got to round 2, however, despite Tifa probably being in my top 15-20
characters. I dunno at this point. |
this could break 80% pretty easily. --- xyzzy |
Soap MacTavish 38.25% 21174 Big Daddy 61.75% 34176 TOTAL VOTES 55350 Ness 64.81% 43544 Geno 35.19% 23647 TOTAL VOTES 67191 Crew Predictions - 53/62 What Happened: Two easy victories in a row. Why it Happened: Soap is weak or Bioshock 2 helped Big Daddy a lot. Geno is weak and Ness may have SFFed him a bit. What will Happen: Should be a good R2 match between these two. Depending on how you think Soap/Geno goes, it could go either way. Crew Prediction Challenge - pointz Kleenex - 56 Moltar - 54 Tran - 53 Red Sox - 53 Ngamer - 52 Lopen - 50 Guest - 48 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Kleenex gets the point for Big Daddy, Guest gets the point for Ness Moltar - 10.5 Ngamer - 10 Lopen - 9 Tran - 9 Red Sox - 7.5 Guest - 8 (Bio: 1, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 1, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 1) Kleenex - 6 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Tifa > Yuri (go yuri) (54/62) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Jenova Division: Round 1 - Match 63 – (2) Gordon Freeman vs. (15) Princess Peach Moltar’s Analysis Gordon Man Gordon is always winning these days. Peach la-la-la-la-la-la 2002? Yep. 2003? Definitely. 2004? Of Course. 2005? Sure 2006? Ehh..I guess 2009? No. Ever since his win against the almighty Phoenix, Gordon has been a legit contender in these Contests. Peach looked good in the female bracket, and this match could have been deceptively close if Gordon hadn’t beasted GameSpot’s contest and had Valve support as back-up. Casual is on the rise, and that helps The Freeman. If this turns into Peach/Jill 2 though…I wouldn’t be surprised. I’d expect Peach to flop against any liked Nintendo character (like Meta Knight), but shell probably hold up against a non-Nintendo one (like Jill). Hmm…a day match does help Peach too…oh man No, no I’ll stop right there. Moltar’s Bracket: Gordon > Peach Moltar’s Prediction: Gordon: 60% - Peach: 40% Lopen’s Analysis Gourdon Pumpkin Head Freeman fights a Peach. Battle of the foodz. Size advantage goes to Gourdon. Also expect we'll be seeing some orange SFF go to Gourdon, since the Pumpkin is a lot more iconic than the peach. The peach, however, is old school. People were cultivating Peaches back in the BC years, whereas the Pumpkin Head first reached domestication in 1893, AD. But yeah all these add up to Gourdon taking it easily. The Peach has been rotting, almost being defeated by cats and Valentines Day. The Pumpkin is fresh, with a recent contest win over at Gamespot and a somewhat recent title, it cannot lose. Lopen's prediction Gourdon with 63.18% Transience’s Analysis The last match of round 1, finally. This match is always a little weird. Three years ago, Peach would have taken this. She's definitely better known and Nintendo was riding an all-time high. Since then, though, these two have gone in completely opposite directions. Gordon's gone to being equal to Scorpion while Peach keeps getting her ass kicked by Meta-Knight. At this point, Peach only seems to get votes if the other person is just a nobody. Gordon Freeman is no longer a nobody. Freeman's performance in that Gamespot contest turned a lot of heads and I think most people are expecting big things following that. I think Freeman can give Tifa a decent run and if the Steam forums get involved again, he could win it. I don't want to say that Freeman is a top 20 character now, but there's certainly potential there. Freeman starts out big and never looks back here. transience's prediction: Gordon Freeman with 59.99% Kleenex’s Analysis I've never been that impressed with Peach's strength. Nearly losing to Jill Valentine and getting beated out by Meta Knight doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence in me. This is not to say Gordon has been the most reliable dude in the world, but he's been on the rise lately, coming off a pretty solid year in 2008, and a big win in that GameSpot contest, for whatever that's worth. This should be a routine win for Gordon, but LAST MATCH syndrome might strike and Peach could pull off some wacky upset here. I just wouldn't bet on it. Bracket: Gordon Favorites: Gordon Prediction: Gordon with 63.45% |
Red Sox’s Analysis A few years ago, Princess Toadstool would have been the huge favorite in this match. But since Gordon Freeman Never Wins broke, Gordon has boosted, and boosted, and boosted. Just last year, he won the contest on Gamespot. Gordon got 38% on Vincent last year while Peach got 34% on Tifa back in 2006. But Gordon is probably stronger than last year and Peach should be weaker than in 2006, so let's go with..... Prediction: Gordon with 62.20% Upset Potential: 5% Upper Bound: Gordon with 67% Lower Bound: Gordon with 56% Guest’s Analysis - PaulG235 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2541 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3255 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3294 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2534 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2548 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2871 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3696 NOT. DEBATABLE. Those who are hoping for a GFNW revival are dillusional. Princess Peach has absolutely NO SHOT whatsoever. Mr. Freeman's a COMPLETELY different man than he was half a decade ago. The days of him losing to a female bikini babe, some guy whose face makes it look like he's needs to take a ****, and some generic Snake wannabe are over. Since then, he's done mildly better in the next couple of years; Losing respectfully to a decent midcarder in Leon Kennedy, putting up good numbers against Sora after ripping a lawyer's jaw off with his crowbar, and losing to Duke Nukem at his best and beating his ass in the following round as well as looking good against Sub-Zero. Nowadays, Gordon's at the very least a legit upper-midcarder. He barely lost to a midcarder in Scorpion before kicking his ass in the next and leaving the contest in a respectable style by defeating a SFF'ed Ganondorf. And say whatever you want about the gamespot contest being a joke, Gordon winning that contest will likely give him some more ground in this contest with brackets. Princess Peach, on the other hand, has been and always will be a fodderline/low-midcarder. Her win against Jill may have been impressive, but that was around the time where Jill was pathetic in these contests. She would go off and easily lose to Meta Knight, who got his ass kicked by Fox and was almost doubled by Luigi, a character who's weaker than Sora. Would you take Meta Knight or Jill Valentine over Gordon Freeman in a contest setting? I know I wouldn't. The only thing this match will be interesting for is to see how much Gordon kills her. 66.05% is the number Tifa got on Peach (in the lol female bracket). If Gordon gets well above that (69%), then he's the favourite going into the match. 67-69% would be the percentage for some serious debate for Gordon/Tifa. Anything lower than 65%, and Gordon has no chance in Round 2. I personally believe Gordon loses to Tifa in the next by a few thousand votes, so I'll go ahead and say Gordon gets around the later of the percentages. BTW, love the match pic here; Gordon's packing whilst Peach goes for her Brawl taunt. Prediction: Gordon Freeman Oracle: 65.43% My Vote: Princess Peach Crew Consensus: Gordon takes a crowbar to Peach |
That's our Gordon. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Are you kidding me? ONE person predicted Gordon with less than 60%, and that was only by .01? Wow. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
whoa. I went high, and you all went way higher than me! --- xyzzy |
Haven't reviewed these early returns yet. Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Nearly 79% from Tifa there, yikes! I mean, it's still a touch less than I would have expected from her pre-Contest, but for a major FF7 character and a major favorite (she had 89% of brackets behind despite being a seeding underdog!) to avoid anti-voting that effectively is pretty darn impressive, Tales or no Tales. She's certainly set herself up as a formidable favorite heading into R2... not that she wasn't already. But MAN, is this ever a weird year. I mean, check out the final R1 standings in terms of "size of blowout" by FF7's Big Four: Tifa > Vincent > Sephiroth > Cloud. That's about as clear as a trend can get! Alright, so with Tifa having apparently become the new Cloud, today's battle will only be worth a single point, but I'm pretty excited for it regardless. Strange things have a habit of happening on the final match of R1, and of course strange results have always trailed Gordon Freeman like a bloodhound, so who knows what we'll see today. Perhaps even... an OUTRIGHT UPSET? Ridiculous as that sounds, I wouldn't count it out entirely; yes Peach has been awful recently, but she's another of those "like but not love" characters who you'd expect to look like trash in a 4way. And actually, Nintendo's been looking pretty respectable all round to this point, even in polls where they have no right to be (like Vivi/DK). But on the other hand, this isn't your father's Gordon Freeman. (Assuming your Dad stopped visiting GameFAQs in 2004.) The guy has looked a ton better ever since the Orange Box, and now with steam (and its constant Half-Life sales) becoming the platform of choice for everything PC gaming, he's sure to still have the hardcore backing that got him past Ganon in '08. And if Peach COULD score the upset she'd have to do so in a no-doubter of a decision, since there's no way the Valve fanbase would let their guy lose a tight one, as anyone who followed last year's Gamespot contest could attest to. In summation, while I like Gordon to manage the win, I don't see him getting the job done in stunning fashion because he's not really built to blow people out. Especially not Nintendo people. Give me the One Free Man to stick right around the 60 mark in this one. Ngamer Says: Gordon > Peach, 59.27% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Round 1 Tea Party *After the final match of the first round, the three witches gather in their tea room.* Moltar: So what do you think of my game so far? Pretty interesting, eh? Ahahaha! Tran: You may have pushed yourself too hard, Molty! You aren’t even winning! Moltar: Hoh! My magic may be too powerful. That could be the case! Or I could be intentionally getting them wrong to trip you up! What do you think, Lopen? Lopen: …Well, this certainly has been interesting. However, your “magic” is quite easy to see through. Tran: Yeah, this is easy mode! Moltar: Really now? Let me hear your theories then! I made a lot of interesting things happen in Round 1, can you really explain them with “voters”? Kleenex: Of course I can. This level of analysis is indeed possible for Kleenex! Moltar: Tch, I still find it hard to believe that a child like you is winning so far. Let me hear what you know. Kleenex: Excellent, I’ll shoot down all your tricks from Round 1 in one fatal blow! Let me start with- Lopen: Wait. Kleenex: Wh-what is it Lopen? I didn’t do anything wrong, did I? Lopen: It’s too early to corner that child. I believe in your abilities, Kleenex, but let him have one more round to further his game before you expose it. Moltar: Ha! Trying to protect your piece before it embarrasses itself. That’s a smart move! Ngamer: Pukuku, you never know, he could have you figured out already. Red Sox: That’s right. Like you said, he is winning your game so far. Moltar: …Grrr, shut up you two. Listen here, Kleenex, you may have gotten lucky so far, but my magic in Round 2 will blow the whole world away! Just think of all the crazy things I can do with my powers! You’ll never be able to explain it, you lowly detective-wannabe! Kleenex: Hmm, you seem to be getting desperate. However, my confidence has not been wavered. I have thoroughly analyzed the voting patterns in Round 1, and I know exactly how Round 2 will play out. Your tricks mean nothing because you determine nothing, you impostor. Red Sox: Oh my, such strong words. These children sure to play rough. Ngamer: It’s rare to see Moltar challenged by someone as stubborn as himself. Moltar: I said be quiet! You…you brat! I’ll show all of you. I’ll make all of you surrender! Get on your knees and kiss my feet! Bow to the powers of my Endless Voting! *vanishes* Tran: He mad. Lopen: Yes, it appears your determination has lit a fuse under that spoiled child. You better not embarrass yourself. More importantly, you better not embarrass me, Kleenex. Kleenex: Y-yes Lopen! I, the first-rate, Great Detective, Kleenex, will defeat Moltar! Nothing will get through the truth that I weave from this Contest! *glass breaks* |
poor kleenex --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Without Crono this is all meaningless. Why? Why? I don't understand. A year is too long to wait for redemption. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Hyrule Division: Round 2 - Match 65 – (1) Link vs. (8) Alucard Moltar’s Analysis Link Round 1 - 79.81% vs. Thrall Not the Link we thought we would see Alucard Round 1 - 58.52% vs. Magus Congrats you defeated a CT character, but anyone can do that these days. Don’t let Link’s “weak” R1 numbers say anything. It quickly became apparent that everyone would have a hard time getting huge blow-outs this year. He’ll still be able to beat around Alucard easily. Moltar’s Bracket: Link > Alucard Moltar’s Prediction: Link: 69% - Alucard: 31% Lopen’s Analysis Now we'll show THE PLAN~ in action. Alucard stomped Magus almost as bad as Link did back in 2k3. Meanwhile, Link looked like crap against pigman this year-- he got 10% more against another pigman years ago. Destiny? I think so. Alucard has a ton of momentum here, and he'l-- okay so he won't win, but I genuinely think he'll do better than he should today. Lopen's prediction: Link with 65% Yes you read that right. Transience’s Analysis round 2! a new round means a new Link match. a new Link match means zzzzz. once upon a time, getting 30% on Link would have been a huge thing; now it seems like Alucard could get that fairly easily. I don't want to go too high with Alucard, though. this is still goddamn Link. the worse Alucard does, the worse Magus looks. I'm all for Magus looking as bad as possible, so I'll give Link some credit. transience's prediction: Link with 69.88% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Link > Alucard, 71.69% Kleenex’s Analysis Round 2 zone. All signs point to The Plan being in full effect this year, so it should unfold exactly the way you think it will - with an Alucard loss. Of course, he meant for this to happen, but that's besides the point. Link didn't look "great" in Round 1, but he looked "good enough" as in "good enough to win the contest". I'm actually not sure what Alucard's worth on Link these days, so it should be interesting to see where he falls. Probably doesn't do all that well, but hey you never know. Need a poor Link performance to keep the Cloud > Link hope alive! (yeah right) Bracket: Link Favorites: Alucard Prediction: Link with 70.03% Red Sox’s Analysis Onto round 2 we go. Link has an easy win here, with the only question being the margin of victory. Alucard looked very good in round 1 against Magus, and it's a night match to boot, so he could do pretty well here. I don't know if the trend of no blowouts will continue into the second round, and if it doesn't we could easily see a Link demolition here, but otherwise, Alucard could break 30%. I figure Crono is worth about 35% on Link, and Magus about 30% on Crono, but Link will be held back a bit here by the night and the general difficulty of getting blowouts, so let's go with..... Prediction: Link with 71.00% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Link with 76% Lower Bound: Link with 66% Guest’s Analysis - Chaotic Mind Magus once scored 35% on Link. Alucard just got 58.5% on Magus. Sadly Magus probably gets tripled by Link these days. Factor in how much stronger than Magus Alucard just proved himself to be and you get something around... Prediction: Link with 71.32% I'm actually hoping Alucard can break 30% to redeem Magus a bit, but then i always hope for Link to score as low as possible. Crew Consensus: Link wins, but you didn’t need us to tell you that. |
Laughing so hard at that tea party Have I mentioned I love you moltar? --- This is an alt for Applekidjosh |
only every night --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Tifa > Yuri (go yuri) (54/62) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Well if I can't win at least my minion can. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
The real plot twist comes in Round 4 when we find out that Lopen is actually my minion, not the other way around. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Haven't reviewed these early returns yet. Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup I guess AT made a mistake; he should have called it Gordon Freeman Never Wins, But On The Odd Chance That He Does, It Won't Be By Much Since PC Gaming Has Pretty Much Become A Niche Market In This Day And Age. Would have been equally as catchy but so much more accurate. Even though right now things look pretty embarrassing for Freeman, remember that the flip side to GFNWetc is also true- he looks better and better the stronger his competition gets, so he'll still come out of the Tifa match with a respectable percentage to help salvage his season. But DANG, think how cool it would have been to see him blast Peach, then sneak by Tifa with a momentum-building miracle finish to set up a Valve-fueled clash with a certain Pokemon who just knocked off Sephiroth. Guess that was never any kind of possibility though... shoot. With that result in the books it's on to Round Two, which means the return of newfound Championship underdog (!?) Link. As we all recall, Magus held Link to only 65% back in '03, so surely someone who BEAT Magus with 59% ought to be able to do the same, right? Ummm, no, sorry. Even in this newfound era of heavy favorite anti-voting, I'd still be quite impressed if Alucard was even able to keep the reigning champ under 70, to be honest. Actually 70 seemed like a very fair target a couple days back, but Peach's strong performance reminded me of just how good Nintendo looked pretty much that entire first round. I mean they didn't blow us away right off the bat, that's true, but once we parsed out this year's trends and started lowering our predictions for the bigger favorites accordingly, they really haven't disappointed since. Especially if you start taking semi-Nintendo old schoolers like MM/Proto/Zero into the equation. The company has looked so good in fact that I might even consider Link for the mid 70s in this one, had he been able to draw a Day Match. As he didn't, I do think Alucard will manage to stop the bleeding somewhat during the dead hours to save a couple percentage points, so let's go with Ngamer Says: Link > Alucard, 71.69% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
tag --- "I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time. |
Highest Link pick? Yesssss! *checks results* Double yesssss! --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Damn i considered boosting my pick to 72.32%. Should have done it. --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
wow, gg Link well, more like gg everyone not named Link --- xyzzy |
Cloud's gonna pull 85% on Chris I can feel it --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Man, Link's underperforming here! I have him at 75%! *checks update* Well, he might still get it! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Alucard should bring Link back closer to 70 with the night vote... i hope. --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
And
then Link's morning vote will probably undo all the damage Alucard does
with the night vote. Link finished .2% higher than what he had at the
end of the first hour. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Against Thrall, that is. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Well damn, so he did. Nevermind then. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
jeez link save.US.missingno --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
MissingNO --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Yuri Lowell 21.3% 11278 Tifa Lockheart 78.7% 41679 TOTAL VOTES 52957 Gordon Freeman 53.25% 41389 Princess Peach 46.75% 36330 TOTAL VOTES 77719 Crew Predictions - 53/62 What Happened: Tifa crushes Yuri no problem. Freeman barely beats Peach. Why it Happened: Yuri is really weak. As for Gordon, he's not as strong as a certain other contest made it seem, at least on this site. What will Happen: so about that Gordon > Tifa upset... Crew Prediction Challenge - pointz Kleenex - 58 Moltar - 56 Tran - 55 Red Sox - 55 Ngamer - 54 Lopen - 52 Guest - 50 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Tifa and Ngamer gets the point for Gordon Ngamer - 11 Moltar - 10.5 Tran - 10 Lopen - 9 Red Sox - 7.5 Guest - 8 (Bio: 1, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 1, vcharon: 1, Luis: 1, GfK: 1) Kleenex - 6 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Link > Alucard (56/64) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Give me Link over Missingno, please. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
The Legend of Link! |
Hyrule Division: Round 2 - Match 66 – (5) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. (13) Mega Man X Moltar’s Analysis Red Round 1 - 50.16% vs. Revolver Ocelot Barely beat Ocelot in the closest match of the Contest MMX Round 1 - 65.72% vs. Capt. John Price Not sure what to make of this performance. I want to give MMX a lot of credit here after his 2008 run, but that Round 1 performance is just…I don’t know. Soap did awful, Mac did awful, but Price did good. Some other casual characters have been doing fine, and others like crap. I’m going to guess that Price was one of the stronger ones though. Now, Red done did good in R1 by beating Ocelot, which shows that the dude has some strength. However, MMX is on a whole different level. I said pre-contest that if Red/Ocelot is even “kinda close”, MMX has Round 2 without a problem. Well, it was definitely “kinda close”, so give me MMX by a good margin. Moltar’s Bracket: MMX > Red Moltar’s Prediction: Red: 41% - MMX: 59% Lopen’s Analysis That Pokemon kid scraped by Ocelot, which is more than I gave him credit for. MMX looked arguably weak last round, but given how good Zero, Proto, and MM looked I'm more inclined to think that Price's fault Lopen's prediction: MMX with 65.55% Transience’s Analysis I'm really curious to see how this match plays out. You see, the two COD4 characters suggest that MMX and Big Daddy are about equal. Either Big Daddy is strong, MMX is weak or this just doesn't mean anything. Chances are it's not going to matter because this is the Pokemon Trainer we're talking about. At best, Ocelot is below MMX's floor; at worst, he's going to get the crap SFFed out of him a la Yoshi in 2005. It's tough to predict which will happen, especially after a Pokemon glitch just beat a guy stronger than MMX, but it seems pretty clear that Red will lose easily, so... transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 64.57% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Mega Man X > Red, 59.69% Kleenex’s Analysis Neither of these dudes looked particularly great last round. Red almost lost to Sir Chokesalot and MMX had a pretty pathetic performance against some dude from MW2. At the very least, Price was untested, so I'm willing to give X a pass on that for now. Regardless of how strong Price really is, X is easily stronger than someone who is Ocelot's equal, even with how much Pokemon in general has impressed thus far. You could probably claim some SFF here which might end up making Red look worse than he should, but I don't know if I buy that and I don't really have a ton of respect for Red in the first place. Another boring match to continue Round 2. Bracket: MMX Favorites: MMX Prediction: MMX with 66.78% |
Red Sox’s Analysis This is the biggest match of round 2! It probably won't be close, but then, I called the biggest match of round 1 the biggest match of round 1 for a few days beforehand even while not expecting it to be close too- and it was! Red is my upset special of the year, and if it weren't for a few round 1 matches, I'd be really pumped for this match. But Red disappointed against Ocelot, barely winning, and then Crono lost to Missingno which makes all of this feel meaningless. But I will argue for Red's chances at least. Pokemon did very very well in round 1, with Charizard, Pikachu, and of course Missingno all putting up stellar performances. Meanwhile MMX disappointed with his 65% against John Price, only a little higher than Big Daddy's 61% on Soap. Is Price really that much stronger than Soap? Meanwhile, Jill performed very well, auguring well for Ocelot's strength (and it makes no sense that Ocelot didn't boost from MGS4). It's possible, I think, that there was a lot of MGS/RE LFF in the Ocelot/Jill matches and they were both underrated last year. Finally, Red was in a night match last round, this time he has a day match, so he should be a couple percentage points stronger. MMX remains the favorite, but how I can not take Red to win this? Gotta ride this train where it will take me. Prediction: Red with 50.04% Upset Potential: 70% Upper Bound: Red with 52% Lower Bound: Megaman X with 60% Crew Consensus: Red backs Red, everyone else has MMX |
spoilers Missingno was a thousand times bigger than Red beating Ocelot --- xyzzy |
Good thing I called Crono/Missingno the biggest match of round 1 then! --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
oh, the way you said it made it sound like the Red match was. it wasn't! --- xyzzy |
I
lost all enthusiasm as soon as I saw the pic for this match. Seeing
old-school Red would've been nice just to see if there was any
difference, and if Bacon really wants to use the new design, there were
some good FireRed artwork pic submitted. Instead X looks great and Red
looks like a goober. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
