GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

charmander6000 | Posted 2/14/2010 10:11:37 AM | message detail | filter | #101
It's a crew consensus guys, we all know what will happen.

>_>
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Character Battle VIII - 48/58 - Today's Winners: Yoshi and Crono
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 10:12:29 AM | message detail | filter | #102
Crew Curse works best when it's almost a crew consensus. If the Guest had been the lone Missingno picker, we would all be screwed right about now.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/14/2010 10:12:49 AM | message detail | filter | #103
yessssssss

come on crew curse work your magic one more time
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/14/2010 10:13:56 AM | message detail | filter | #104
****, Crew curse in effect >_<
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 10:19:59 AM | message detail | filter | #105
watch Crono get like 104%
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xyzzy
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/14/2010 10:21:02 AM | message detail | filter | #106
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 11:00:40 AM | message detail | filter | #107
Crono's closer than I expected early on!
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 11:28:47 AM | message detail | filter | #108
CREW CURSE

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 11:47:35 AM | message detail | filter | #109
it's weird how missing this match means as much as missing Jecht/Phoenix. our brackets are lucky that Crono met Sephiroth so soon.

not that Crono's lost this yet, but I'd bet on Missingno holding on. if this is even moderately close, Missingno is going to go wild at the end. if Missingno wins, Missingno/Sephiroth should be *really* wild. at least people like Crono early here. Missingno could get like 80% early against Sephiroth.
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xyzzy
Chaotic Mind | Posted 2/14/2010 11:48:50 AM | message detail | filter | #110
Hell, i bet Missingno could break 90% early against Seph.
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transience | Posted 2/14/2010 11:54:17 AM | message detail | filter | #111
WCC vs. Luigi looks a lot more likely now. so does L-Block vs. Charizard or whoever.
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xyzzy
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/14/2010 11:56:21 AM | message detail | filter | #112

From: transience | #109
it's weird how missing this match means as much as missing Jecht/Phoenix. our brackets are lucky that Crono met Sephiroth so soon.

not that Crono's lost this yet, but I'd bet on Missingno holding on. if this is even moderately close, Missingno is going to go wild at the end. if Missingno wins, Missingno/Sephiroth should be *really* wild. at least people like Crono early here. Missingno could get like 80% early against Sephiroth.


If Missingno has the strength to beat Crono without a bandwagon, by round 3 he should have a bangwagon to be close to Seph.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:58:06 AM | message detail | filter | #113
Missingno can beat Sephiroth if he can beat Crono here. It'll be a night match which has a much more powerful early vote, and the sprite round. Seph will be buried under hundreds of votes within 5 minutes.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/14/2010 11:59:02 AM | message detail | filter | #114
If Seph wins that round 3 if Missingno gets there, that could be the biggest percentage swing ever.
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transience | Posted 2/14/2010 12:00:03 PM | message detail | filter | #115
as far as I'm concerned, if Missingno wins this, he's got a great shot at winning the contest. I'd have called Missingno the #2 most likely character to win the contest after Link.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 12:00:48 PM | message detail | filter | #116
And the really scary thing is that if Missingno can beat Sephiroth, he can win the contest. Cloud's not that much stronger than Seph, and while getting a 24 hour match is a big advantage, Missingno will have the momentum/bandwagon from beating Sephiroth and Snake. Then there's Link who isn't that much stronger than Cloud.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 12:02:01 PM | message detail | filter | #117
Crono's stabilizing here. if Missingno is a joke like you'd expect, Crono should do better and better as this match goes on.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 12:05:37 PM | message detail | filter | #118
haha so much for that, damn you pokemon
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xyzzy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/14/2010 12:13:52 PM | message detail | filter | #119
Guest gets the point today for the Accuracy Challenge. Even if Crono can turn this around and win, the percentage swing isn't going to be large enough to allow Kleenex to get the point instead.
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bloodhawks return | Posted 2/14/2010 12:55:36 PM | message detail | filter | #120
I should have just gone all out and went for Missingno. >_<
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/14/2010 12:57:07 PM | message detail | filter | #121
Well, at least I kept my Oracle for Crono low!
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Lopen | Posted 2/14/2010 1:11:19 PM | message detail | filter | #122
Wow how about that Corno what a choker
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GTM | Posted 2/14/2010 1:13:58 PM | message detail | filter | #123
Prediction: Crono with 70.00%
Upset Potential: 5%
Upper Bound: Crono with 77%
Lower Bound: Crono with 56%


More like Curse of the Red Sox

Noble Nine down
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/14/2010 1:14:19 PM | message detail | filter | #124
THROUGH BUCKNER'S LEGS UNBELIEVABLE
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/14/2010 3:18:05 PM | message detail | filter | #125
Almost predicted Missingno here, but I didn't want to give red sox a heart attack.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 2/14/2010 7:07:16 PM | message detail | filter | #126
Haven't reviewed these "early" returns yet.

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Son of a songbird, I did it again! Submitted a well-reasoned and accurate writeup that would have netted me a great pred in the mid 70s, but got scared off by everyone's lowballing and stuck to the low 70s instead. *checks Oracle* Whoa, we didn't even expect Yoshi to make it to 69%- what a great showing for the little guy! Now granted Jak is a joke (and not in the L-Block way), and yes I do still think you're crazy if you're even considering an R2 Crono upset, but man... the 5th biggest blowout of the season, against a NON neo-Tanner opponent? Feelin' pretty good about having described Yoshi as a "1v1 stud" pre-match! At this rate I could certainly see him turning R2 into a Sora/Mega Man 55%ish situation, at least if Crono has lost another half step in the last year+. Speaking of which...

Everyone's freaking out over Missingno, and not ONLY do I think that's a mistake, I'm even going to back up my analysis with a high Oracle pick! *shocked expressions all around* Now, I'm fully aware that Pokemon has been hot for three years running, and the original generation has looked especially good, and non-traditional characters have been overperforming against our expectations, and this glitch dominated a vote-in poll against fairly respectable opposition. Here's why I'm still not buying it as the next L-Block:

* Mizno's an even funnier "joke" character than the Block and has the advantage of a more diehard fanbase. but that doesn't matter, because a joke isn't funny unless you get it- and what percentage of the site could possibly "get" Mizno? Tetris is the ultimate universal game, and other Pokemon entrants have gotten help from the anime or movies or Melee or Brawl or appearing in spinoffs or being internet memes- this glitch is strictly first generation in a way that no other Pokemon could possibly be, so I don't see how it could have the exposure to make a big splash

* L didn't become a Noble Nine killer overnight; first he needed to train up against junk like Laharl and Nathan Hale. now, put Mizno up against someone overhyped heading into R1 (maybe a Nathan Drake) and sure, I could see the joke rally picking up steam to the point where it could put serious dents in even NNers, but I can't imagine it having that kind of appeal right off the bat

* I'm not going to deny that beating out fairly respectable competition (Lightning, The Boss, Scorpion, Axel) by over 5% was impressive, but come on- Mizno's extremely unique situation was bound to make it powerhouse entrant in a 10 option situation. being lowered to only 2 choices makes this a whole new ballgame

* at this point, for Mizno to perform up to expectations something like 15% of the site would have to anti-vote Chrono. even with the site trending away from jRPGs in recent years, I still can't see that happening. I mean, Chrono's the lovable underdog, the poor mute with only one game to his name who somehow perseveres to challenges billion dollar corporation guys like Mario and Sonic year after year. nay, sorry Mizno; you drew the wrong opponent

Summary: Mizno does admittedly frighten me, but it wasn't put in a situation to succeed this season and so I'm refusing to drink the Kool Aid. Give me

Ngamer Says: Crono > Some Glitch, 63.31%

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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/14/2010 7:07:52 PM | message detail | filter | #127

From: Ngamer64 | #126
Haven't reviewed these "early" returns yet.


I feel sorry you've missed such a great match
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/14/2010 7:08:54 PM | message detail | filter | #128
oops
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 7:09:35 PM | message detail | filter | #129
Not even one of the crew predicted a Missigno win?
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Lopen | Posted 2/14/2010 7:17:28 PM | message detail | filter | #130
Like Crono's chances given it's close and Crono still has the night vote and CT cheater central to look forward to
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 7:18:41 PM | message detail | filter | #131
Early episode of The Show plz

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/14/2010 8:09:34 PM | message detail | filter | #132
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/14/2010 6:07:52 PM | message detail
I feel sorry you've missed such a great match


Don't- the only "great" thing about this match will be watching Crono's last hour magic!

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red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 9:11:41 PM | message detail | filter | #133
My email seems to be down tonight, so I'll just post this here:

Soap MacTavish vs. Big Daddy

I’m sorry, but I don’t think I can put together a rational argument about this match right now- I’m too emotionally invested in Crono/Missingno. I thought a lot about taking Soap before the contest, since Modern Warfare 2 was a very big game, but took Big Daddy because MW2 didn’t that well in the GOTY poll and it looks like the hype has worn off already. Meanwhile, Bioshock 2 is coming out very soon, so Big Daddy should have a hype advantage. That said, Soap winning would not surprise me at all, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

Prediction: Big Daddy with 53.5%
Upset Potential: 35%
Upper Bound: Big Daddy with 61%
Lower Bound: Soap MacTavish with 54%

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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 9:21:11 PM | message detail | filter | #134
I don't care that it's Crono, there is just no way a glitch is going to be outrallied in the last 90 minutes here.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 9:22:01 PM | message detail | filter | #135
It doesn't even need to be outrallied. Crono looks like it's going to just plain overtake it via trends.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 9:22:02 PM | message detail | filter | #136
ha, and I see KP's topic on LL has been stickied. gg Crono
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 9:22:50 PM | message detail | filter | #137
It was stickied like 8 hours ago. The well is dry.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/14/2010 9:23:01 PM | message detail | filter | #138
At the rate Crono's going, he won't have enough of a lead to withstand any rallying/stuffing Missingno may have up its glitchy sleeve.
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transience | Posted 2/14/2010 9:27:00 PM | message detail | filter | #139
yeah, I've seen this before.

Crono the day vote god against the glitch what the hell is this poll
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xyzzy
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/14/2010 9:53:39 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #140
Jenova Division: Round 1 - Match 61 – (3) Soap McTavish vs. (14) Big Daddy

Moltar’s Analysis

Soap
Oh hey look another casual character for me to incorrectly call.

Big Daddy
Bioshock 2 so good

Soap? Soap?! What kind of name is that?

Anyway, the known entity here, Big Daddy, isn’t all that strong. He came in last in a fourpack consisting of high fodder characters. However, he does have the very recent Bioshock 2. Now, Travis looked alright against Zelda after NMH2, Shepard looked really good after Mass Effect 2. Safe to say, Big Daddy should be looking better here.

The question is how strong the unknown entity, Soap is. Casual characters have been doing well against strong competition. They aren’t winning for the most part, but they’re putting up good numbers. Soap will probably do the same considering Big Daddy is high fodder.

Still…I think Soap will lean towards the meh ones than the decent ones. Combo that with Bioshock 2 having just been released last week and I think he’ll take it in a close one.

Moltar’s Bracket: Big Daddy > Soap

Moltar’s Prediction: Soap: 47% - Big Daddy: 53%



Transience’s Analysis

This match is hard. On the one hand, you've got the biggest mainstream character of the last few years; on the other, you've got a character that's shown itself to be at least decent and has a new sequel out this very week.

Let's start with Soap. Call of Duty is not your normal FPS; people love this campaign. They talk about it. It's well-directed and has some huge moments. Soap is the closest thing to a main character. Price got a nice percentage on Mega Man X and a swamp thing that's only in one mission has put up two respectable showings. Soap should be decent at the very least and potentially fairly strong. I have faith in him.

Big Daddy is weird. It's not the main character of Bioshock, but it's the most memorable part of it. Big Daddy *is* the main character of Bioshock 2, but it's a game that doesn't have the same emotional pull that the original does. It's much more of a conventional shooter than the original and the fanbase isn't supporting it like they did the original. That said, Big Daddy will clearly boost from this. It was already near the fodder line, so if it gets a big boost (like it should), it should be safe from Soap.

I'm gonna go against my bracket and back Soap though. I just feel really good about this guy. I could see him being really strong or being mediocre. If he's really strong, he'll win this big and give Tifa a fight; if not, Big Daddy will eat him alive before getting crushed by Tifa. I'll take the guy with the higher ceiling.

transience's predix: Soap Mcwhatever with 54.96%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Big Daddy > Soap, 51.11%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Go Bioshock 2 or somethiong.


Bracket: Big Daddy
Favorites: Big Daddy
Prediction: Big Daddy with 56.45%



Crew Consensus: Uh…Big Daddy wins I guess.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/14/2010 10:24:07 PM | message detail | filter | #141
Safety Guest Clan Prediction

R.I.P. Noble Nine

Now it's time for Big Daddy to show Soap what's what, and I'm just not gonna have the energy to care. I hope this isn't a close match. Bioshock 2 should help him out a decent bit. I've been hearing mixed things about it, but more good than bad. Price's performance against MMX is being overrated, I think. It wasn't as good as it looked. I think it was more indicative of MMX's weakness than Price's strength. That said, if Soap were that strong, it could still be enough to beat Big Daddy. It's hard to say because we still don't really know where MMX is. Still siding with Big Daddy though!

Leonhart's Prediction: Big Daddy with 54.54%
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Lopen | Posted 2/14/2010 10:55:30 PM | message detail | filter | #142
Lopen's Analysis

Hey guys got distracted by the HOT MATCH. Dammit, Kirby was supposed to be the one to kill the NN, not this stupid glitch thing.

Anyway Big Daddy "drops the Soap" YEAHHHH and wins because:

1. Bioshock 2 is more relevant now.
2. He looks cooler (yes this matters)
3. He has a contest history of not looking totally terrible. He came close to Balthi--... mmmm.....

Because of points 1 and 2, he will win.

Lopen's prediction:
Big Daddy with 55.55%
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transience | Posted 2/14/2010 10:57:19 PM | message detail | filter | #143
I feel good about Soap, but I'd feel a lot better if this were a day match.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 2/14/2010 11:01:47 PM | message detail | filter | #144
whelp, so much for that!
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:04:15 PM | message detail | filter | #145
Wanted to make a copy of this in a topic I know will be archived, so here goes:

No vote stuffing in the Missingno/Crono battle, just sayin'
Ngamer64 (37) | Board List | Topic List | Post New Message | Track Topic
SBAllen | Posted 2/14/2010 10:00:54 PM | message detail
There's no vote stuffing going on in the final result. Actually if we only counted the votes from registered users, Missingno would still win. In fact, after checking the attempted vote stuffing, Crono had more than double the attempted vote stuffs than Missingno. It's all legit, Missingno won fair and square.
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Um, not to criticize science or anything, but wouldn't it be easier just to call it "the pink one"?


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Lopen | Posted 2/14/2010 11:06:42 PM | message detail | filter | #146
Honestly I don't trust SBAllen's claims as far as I can throw them. He could just as easily not do a thing and just claim he did to save face.

Not doubting that the post could be correct but SBAllen saying it doesn't exactly make me think decisively about it either way.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/14/2010 11:14:53 PM | message detail | filter | #147
Aw yeah, Big Daddy avoids the Crew Curse!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 11:44:53 PM | message detail | filter | #148
so uh

yeah does anyone care about this match

didn't think so

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/14/2010 11:45:20 PM | message detail | filter | #149
Everyone's recovering from their adrenaline high.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/14/2010 11:46:50 PM | message detail | filter | #150

From: KamikazePotato | #148
so uh

yeah does anyone care about this contest

didn't think so


I agree

But seriously, WTF happened to this match
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee