GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 9:44:29 AM | message detail | filter | #001
Hello once again!

For those who are new here, the Contest Analysis Crew is a group of users who know how these Contests work. Our duty is to analyze each match and predict who will win each match and the percentages each character will get. Wish us luck, because we'll need it.

Anyway, Introduction time!

*On the morning of January 14th, three witches are sitting in a small room enjoying their Tea Party.*

Moltar: So, did you two hear? It’s that time of the year again.

Lopen: …Indeed, a new game is about to begin. What is the gameboard like this time?

Moltar: It’s back to 1-on-1, this time, with 128 characters! Sounds interesting, riiiiiiight? I can’t wait to determine the results using my magic!

Lopen: …Hmph, such a child you are, Moltar. Your magic means nothing. The results are determined by the voters.

Moltar: Hoh! So you want to challenge me again, Lopen? I’ll create all the results, and you won’t be able to explain them with voters! They will be so unpredictable that everyone will be forced to accept my magic! The number of votes I can create are endless! I am the Voting Witch, Master Moltar!

Lopen: …Very well, I, the Witch of Upsets, Lopen, accept your challenge. I don’t expect to be bored.

Tran: Hey you two! What are you talking about! Let me in! Let me in!

Moltar: It’s another game between Lopen and I. Will you be supporting me again, Tran?

Tran: Naaaah, I’m tired of you, Moltar. And I would never be on Lopen’s side! Therefore, I, the Witch of Locks, Transience, will make my own side!

Lopen: …Make your own side? I see you’re still a child too, Tran. At least you won’t make me bored though.

Tran: Hehe, I love you Lopen! You’re so <cute>!

Moltar: I want to invite someone in on this little game between us. Come forth, my finest servant, Ngamer.

Ngamer: Ngamer here, at your service, Master Moltar.

Moltar: Do you wish to participate in this game with us?

Ngamer: Very well, I, Ngamer, will join. Let me warn you though, I am pretty good and figuring out the true results, pukuku.

Lopen: …I see, now this is even more interesting. I shall bring a guest too. Kleenex, where are you?

Kleenex: I’m right here, Lopen!

Lopen: You will participate in this game as well. If you win, I’ll promote you to the rank of a Witch. You can be the Witch of Facts. *giggle*

Kleenex: <Good>. That would be an honor! I, the great detective, KleenexTissue, will do my best! My skills are first-rate!

Tran: Hey you two! I want to bring someone in too! Um…um…oh I know! I’ll bring in your teacher!

Moltar: My teacher? You don’t mean-

Tran: Hey red sox, get out here!

Red Sox: Yes, Transience?

Tran: You’re also going to join our game! I want you to do your best and beat your student.

Red Sox: Is that alright with you, Moltar?

Moltar: That fine with me! The more the merrier! I’ll make all of you submit to my voting magic!

Red Sox: Very well, I, Red Sox, will also join the game. It’ll be more productive than spending time with and constantly getting teased by G-

Moltar: Oh, there’s more thing. There will be more people joining us. Arise, Guests!

Lopen: …The Guests? They aren’t exactly…the brightest, you know.

Tran: Yeah! What’s up with that? They’re as dumb as Goats!

Moltar: I think you two will be surprised. They can be really clever sometimes! One guest will also participate in each match of our game.

Moltar: Anyway, I hope everyone is ready! I’ve already made a certain man lose the will to fight against me, and now it’s your turn! Prepare to submit to my Endless Voting magic, Readerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

*glass breaks*
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 9:44:55 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #002
E-mail: mastermoltar@gmail.com

Current Guests

Squall/Akuma - LeonhartFour

Sephiroth/Marth - Luster Soldier
Vincent/Guybrush - Zylo the wolf
Yoshi/Jak - LinkMarioSamus
Crono/Missingno - bloodhawks return
Soap/Big Daddy - CherryCokes
Ness/Geno - GrapefruitKing
Yuri/Tifa - KamikazePotato
Gordon/Peach - PaulG235

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Moltar Status: Bracket: Revan > Terra (48/54)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 9:52:42 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #003
Auron 57.64% 29758
Aerith Gainsborough 42.36% 21870
TOTAL VOTES 51628

Zero 67.17% 46381
Marcus Fenix 32.83% 22672
TOTAL VOTES 69053


Crew Predictions - 47/54

What Happened: Auron beats Aerith as expected, and Zero has no problem with Marcus

Why it Happened: Nothing too crazy here. Aeris is still a solid midcarder, which is why she did okay. Zero is also looking good now that we're back to 1v1.

What will Happen: Zero didn't look like a Auron-slayer in his match, but he should do okay in the match.



Crew Prediction Challenge - 2 points for all

Kleenex - 50
Moltar - 48
Tran - 47
Red Sox - 47
Ngamer - 45
Lopen - 44
Guest - 41



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Guest gets the point for Zero and Auron

Moltar - 9.5
Lopen - 9
Ngamer - 8
Tran - 8
Red Sox - 7.5
Guest - 6 (Bio: 1, CM: 2, Marsman: 1, FF999: 1, vcharon: 1)
Kleenex - 5
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Revan > Terra (48/54)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 10:03:05 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #004
Gear Division: Round 1 - Match 56 – (2) Squall Leonhart vs. (15) Akuma

Moltar’s Analysis

Squall
A 2-seed, not bad Squall.

Akuma
To think…he may be the second strongest SF character now.

Woo rematches

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2891

So that’s about 40%, right? Well, factor in that Aeris was dragging down Squall and SF general suckiness and a 1v1 match and you end up with something like this.

Moltar’s Bracket: Squall > Akuma

Moltar’s Prediction: Squall: 66% - Akuma: 34%



Lopen’s Analysis

Man, Squall's probably doing the "whatever" thing to Akuma while Akuma says "YOU WILL SOON BE DEAD." I feel bad for Akuma, because the dude's glass durability probably means he goes down in one Lionheart.

Anyway Ken flopping earlier this round has me doubting if Akuma can look decent. 2007 implies he can, however, and Wesker could've been stronger than he was when we last saw him. I mean look at Ryu-- no small fry, him, beatin that Leading Man ass earlier this round. I also like to think that Akuma has a decent case for more strength than Ken and Ken might've just been rusty. Let's not condemn Akuma for Ken-- dude probably looks alright here. Plus NEW SQUARE IS ON THE DROP.

Lopen's Prediction:
Squall with 56.46%



Transience’s Analysis

Really, Bacon? We get to watch Squall/Akuma again?

Akuma showed a couple years ago that he was decent when he gave Aeris a bit of a fight. It was a match that was tailor-made for him, but still, lesser characters have lost a lot worse than that. Akuma might even be the second strongest SF guy after Ryu. He needs to get a winnable match though instead of a top 10 guy like Squall.

Squall should rip into him no problem this time around. Hopefully he can keep it close.

transience's prediction: Squall with 66.67%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Squall > Akuma, 67.34%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Poor Akuma. Stuck against Squall again. I think Akuma had a pretty good performance back in 2007, and he did pretty well for himself in the vote-in polls. Dude's probably got some strength behind him, so I think he's gonna impress here. Unfortunately, he got a bad draw and he's not match for Squall. Too bad he didn't get paired with Nathan Drake, that'd be an upset worth taking.


Bracket: Squall
Favorites: Squall
Prediction: Squall with 64.13%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Wow, FFVI has looked very good this year-I'm surprised. Of course the jury isn't quite in yet as there was reason for Arthas to be unreliable and Revan was an unknown. This afternoon we have an easy win for Squall, who is generally considered the 9th or 10th strongest character. He's actually faced Akuma before, and he won with 60.5% with Aeris in the poll. Without her, he might get go for the doubling in this poll. Auron did about expected against Aeris, so Squall just has to do about what is expected of him here to maintain his favorite status.

Prediction: Squall with 66.00%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Squall with 69%
Lower Bound: Squall with 63%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 10:03:16 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #005
Guest’s Analysis - LeonhartFour

Man, this match looks familiar. I wonder where I’ve seen it before…Oh, right: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2891

What is it with Bacon and setting up pointless rematches like this one? I’m kinda upset about the fact that Akuma’s so wasted here. I’ve been a big proponent of him doing well in these contests for years now. I really think he could be the second strongest Street Fighter overall (Distantly behind Ryu, of course, but still). I hear people use this, “But he wasn’t one of the original twelve!” argument, but I don’t buy it. Unless you haven’t played a Street Fighter (or Capcom vs.) game that was made in the last fifteen years, you’ve played one with Akuma in it (because he’s been in practically every one of them since he was introduced), and if you haven’t played a Street Fighter game in the last fifteen years, you probably weren’t going to vote for him anyway.

Anyway, with all that said, we already know Akuma doesn’t have any chance of getting anywhere close to Squall here. He couldn’t do it even with Aerith in the poll three years ago, and he won’t do it now. This poll really won’t tell us much about Squall because Akuma is a relative unknown. We can kinda judge him off of Ken since they should be in the same neighborhood, but if Akuma puts up a decently high number, I’m not going to be too concerned. I’d see it more as a validation of Akuma’s strength than Squall’s weakness (Spin doctor that I am). It’s kinda disappointing that we’re not really going to get a good read on Squall before his match with Auron since he’s facing an unknown here and either an unknown or someone he can SFF hard next round, depending on who’s there to meet him. Of course, being the Squall fanboy I am, I’m going to shoot high here, so here it is.

Leonhart’s Vote: Squall Leonhart

Leonhart’s Anticipation Level: Always high when Squall’s in a match

Leonhart’s Prediction: Squall Leonhart with 71.27%



Crew Consensus: Squall brings a gunblade to a Street Fight. He wins
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 10:18:53 AM | message detail | filter | #006
Aw yeah, highest Squall prediction! C'mon, blowout! Let's get three Guest Clan points in a row!
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 2/12/2010 10:26:54 AM | message detail | filter | #007
I know my Oracle sucks when I'm going higher than Leon for his hype prediction. And I still don't care. C'mon, Squall! Flex your muscles here and show the Raging Demon that he's no match for the Lion!
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 10:27:09 AM | message detail | filter | #008
Forgot about Revan/Terra, but looking at the predictions, the Guest Clan will get three in a row! Let's make it four with Squall!
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/12/2010 10:27:52 AM | message detail | filter | #009
Aw man, I just realized that I'm actually going to be voting for Squall in the first two rounds before dropping him for Auron.

Good god FFVIII.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/12/2010 10:27:59 AM | message detail | filter | #010
Guests might catch up to Lopen eventually!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/12/2010 10:42:54 AM | message detail | filter | #011
Guests beasting

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/12/2010 11:03:53 AM | message detail | filter | #012
go guests! XD
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
vcharon | Posted 2/12/2010 11:26:27 AM | message detail | filter | #013
Time for the pink slips
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:29:15 AM | message detail | filter | #014
Guest got this
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
transients | Posted 2/12/2010 3:43:49 PM | message detail | filter | #015
guest no chance
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/12/2010 7:20:26 PM | message detail | filter | #016
Haven't reviewed these "early" returns yet.

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Whoooo! Now, I hate to celebrate TOO much, because I do feel bad for the board and the NRT in particular, but yes- very proud of myself for not caving to the hype and sticking with my guns for that match. That's something I'd almost never done before this season, so I didn't realize how good it feels to be right in that situation. (Now, if only I'd start being right about twice as often.) As for the match itself, don't know how much there is to say... with help from Dissidia Terra's probably right there around the fodder line, so it's not like Revan is AWFUL, he's just not quite as strong as HK-47. Also, it would appear I was correct regarding the timing of this poll; Terra won America by a mere 500 votes (out of 31k), so this would have been a much more spirited affair as a Day Match.

There was plenty of Squall talk during the Auron/Aeris match a couple days back, with most agreeing that the FFX lead would be heading into their R3 faceoff as a considerable underdog. Time to see if Mr. Leonhart can live up to the hype! (The FF character, not the chump who just got Eliminated from Guru contention.) At first glance, a powerhouse showing in the 70s seems obvious for today- we're talking about a Top Ten character on this site (probably) going up against a second tier guy from a series whose #2 man was almost KOed by Wesker. However, upon closer inspection, maybe Squall won't have such an easy victory after all.

Firstly, we've already seen this matchup once before, and there Squall managed only 60.52% on Akuma! Alright, so that number was incredibly skewed by having Aeris and another Square RPGer (Geno) in the same poll, but even so, at least we know that Akuma stands up well against Square opposition. Secondly, heavy favorites have had a pretty spotty track record so far this season, and given his #2 seed and the 85% of brackets that are probably behind him, I'd certainly imagine that Squall's in the same boat with Cloud, Snake, and the rest. Thirdly, those favorites seem to run into the most trouble when opposing someone with an attractive match pic capable to drawing away the casuals- and Akuma's got that in spades!

If you add them all together, these factors sure make it sound as though Squall is set to disappoint us with a showing in the mid 60s.... but somehow I don't trust that. For some reason I'm a little nervous about putting that much faith in the trends, so instead I'm going to hedge my bets by scooting up just a shade higher. Let's go with

Ngamer Says: Squall > Akuma, 67.34%

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Chaotic Mind | Posted 2/12/2010 7:33:47 PM | message detail | filter | #017

From: KamikazePotato | #011
Guests beasting


You know it!
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/12/2010 7:34:47 PM | message detail | filter | #018
What the- I'm going to get the point for this match? Crazy!

Ah, I see... so Leon's Squall hype train stole the point right out from under the nose of his own Guest Clan, how delightful.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 7:44:38 PM | message detail | filter | #019
a second tier guy from a series whose #2 man was almost KOed by Wesker

Akuma didn't almost lost to Wesker...
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"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/12/2010 7:48:15 PM | message detail | filter | #020
Sent in my write-up for the next match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 7:49:41 PM | message detail | filter | #021
Err...almost lose, rather.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/12/2010 7:52:09 PM | message detail | filter | #022
very proud of myself for not caving to the hype and sticking with my guns for that match.

You wussed out with a 50.01% prediction. That's nothing to be proud of.
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!
transients | Posted 2/12/2010 8:01:32 PM | message detail | filter | #023
I agree with Kleenex on this one.
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xyzzy
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 9:43:01 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #024
Jenova Division: Round 1 - Match 57 – (1) Sephiroth vs. (16) Marth

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth
Hey look it’s the guy who’s going to get upset by Snake

Marth
Darth Marth

So after watching Cloud suck it up against Ridley, this could be a bit more interesting than we originally thought. I mean, Ridley got 28% on Cloud, and Seph is weaker than Cloud. It’s also likely that Marth is stronger than Ridley, so Marth may have a chance here, right!

Oh, not a chance of winning of course, a chance to make Sephiroth look bad! The worse Seph looks, the better it is for everyone! Snake upset a-go-go!

Moltar’s Bracket: Sephiroth > Marth

Moltar’s Prediction: Sephiroth: 70% - Marth: 30%



Lopen’s Analysis

The swords of the bishounens clashed. One, with long, steady strokes. The other, focusing on maneuvering the tip. Sephiroth was fully immersed in the action, licking his lips in ferverent anticipation of every strike with Marth's tip. He wouldn't be caught off guard tonight.

Then.. something strange happened. After the blade foreplay to open the fight, it was Sephiroth who came up short when the length of their blue bars were compared. This had never happened to him. He was always one to take his time in rising to the occassion, but to be humiliated like this after 5 minutes, which should've been more than enough time to establish the dominant position he cherished? Perhaps he was getting old... perhaps he needed a little boost in his life. Sephiroth shook his head, but persevered. Even if he was outdone in the first five minutes, he would dwarf this man's pitiful blue bar yet.

So, with some vigorous action through the next 5 minutes, Sephiroth's bar throbbing and pulsed with power-- and became a beast unleashed. He never looked back from then on, but in the back of his mind doubts that weren't there began to arise.

Seriously though. If Cloud could barely get 70% (if that?) on freakin Ridley, you know this one is gonna be ugly. Especially during the board vote where I see Marth pushing to lead for the first 5 minutes. Does he have a chance? No, he has no chance, but it'll be funny to watch Sephiroth's heaving blue bar come down with a huge case of percentage dysfunction and hurt his performance.

Lopen's prediction:
Sephiroth with 63.25%



Transience’s Analysis

Sephiroth is weaker than Cloud. Marth is stronger than Ridley.

Considering how bad Cloud looked, could Sephiroth look even worse?

The obvious answer is 'yes', but Sephiroth has historically never played by the rules. Sometimes he feels like crushing people and sometimes he just bombs. Sephiroth just likes taking our precious stats and crapping all over them. yay!

So yeah, Seph wins and probably doesn't look that great in the process. Sephiroth could be anywhere though, anywhere.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 70.15%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Sephiroth > Marth, 70.92%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I'm going to be at a Brawl tournament while you read this, and I will be playing Marth. And my Marth is probably going to get his ass beat as badly as the one in the contest. Thanks to the wonders of Karma Hunter-approved BISHOUNEN SFF, Marth may or may not look worse than he is here. It should actually be pretty interesting, because we all know how abysmal FF7's early vote, and Marth should have a pretty solid one. Predictions of Sephiroth's downfall at the hands of Snake will probably wash over the board, and Cloud will probably get roped in there too (FF7 is so screwed).
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 9:43:31 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #025
There's probably something else to be said here, but I've got nothing. Hopefully Sephiroth will end up looking "good enough" so we don't have to listen to the Snake dudes for now.

Bracket: Sephiroth
Favorites: Marth
Prediction: Sephiroth with 68.56%



Red Sox’s Analysis

We are 7/8 of the way through the first round, and every single character so far has failed to get a true blowout. Link, Cloud, Snake, Samus, Mario, Megaman, Sonic- the most they or anyone else has managed so far is a measly 81%. Sephiroth, the 3rd strongest character, gets his chance tonight to do what they couldn’t.

But he probably won’t. For one thing, Marth is not fodder, having easily defeated Duke and Kefka last year, and for another thing, if Cloud is any indication, Sephiroth will be heavily anti-voted tonight.
Cloud couldn’t get 72% on Ridley, Marth should be stronger than Ridley, and Sephiroth should be weaker than Cloud. That adds up to Marth breaking 30%.

Wait, 30%? But this is Sephiroth, this is Clinkeroth. 30% on Sephiroth is supposed to make you a high midcarder. I think pretty highly of Marth, but a high midcarder he is not. And yet- that’s the way this contest has been so far- the blowouts have just not been happening. Sephiroth and the others will probably be fine in the later rounds- but for now, a large segment of voters appear to have figured out they will win and are trying to buck the establishment.

Prediction: Sephiroth with 68.00%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Sephiroth with 73%
Lower Bound: Sephiroth with 64%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/12/2010 9:44:15 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #026
Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

Just a few days ago, Cloud underperformed against Ridley, so that should apply to Sephiroth too. Especially since Aerith suffered like Cloud did with the board vote. I knew Cloud would have a bad board vote like always, but I didn't think it would be this bad. Failing to double high end fodder like Ridley with the board vote is quite bad. I guess 4-ways have really disguised the severity of the FF7 anti-voting at the beginning of the match.

Yet despite the underwhelming performance of Cloud and most likely Sephiroth, both of them could still go into their matches with Samus and Snake holding the lead on them by the end of the board vote. It really depends on if FF7 is being anti-voted at the start of the match due to voters realizing neither Cloud or Sephiroth are in danger of losing. I do not think FF7 is being anti-voted for that reason. During the last Games Contest, FF7 always looked bad at the start but finished much higher by the end. Once FF7 was put into a situation where it is up against the one game that could defeat it, the early voters who typically anti-voted FF7 knowing it would not lose the match could not afford to do that now in a match with OoT. There, FF7 needed all the help it could get just to win that match. And yet, FF7 still had a terrible board vote in that match. So it is quite possible that Samus or Snake could hold a lead on their opponents when they finally do meet up.

Sephiroth is expected to get slightly less than Cloud pulled off on Ridley. Apart from Sephiroth being a bit weaker than Cloud, Marth is also a bit stronger than Ridley and would probably 60-40 him. The start of this match could be the most hilarious board vote ever, just to see Sephiroth suck it up hard in the beginning. Marth has more going for him at the start of the match due to Fire Emblem, Melee, and Brawl to draw votes from. And Melee's board vote is pretty top notch, so watch out for Marth with a stronger board vote than Ridley.

Sephiroth's performance here will tell a lot about his fate against Snake. Outdoing Cloud's percentage here should make him the favorite to defeat Snake. Struggling to break 65% should make Snake the favorite. Any other final result between 66% and Cloud's percentage should make the match a toss-up for now.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Sephiroth
Luster Soldier's Prediction: Sephiroth - 69.47%

Crew Consensus: Seph impales Marth
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/12/2010 9:46:31 PM | message detail | filter | #027
I kind of think the 'Bishounen SFF' thing is very likely to happen and Marth ends up not looking so great here compared to Ridley. The kind of people that like Marth probably also like Sephiroth.

Uh I mean sephiroth more like suckiroth

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/12/2010 9:54:47 PM | message detail | filter | #028
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/12/2010 6:52:09 PM | message detail
You wussed out with a 50.01% prediction. That's nothing to be proud of.



Hey! It saved me 5 points- and when you're only up 5 points on tranny and 7 on Moltar, every point counts!

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Ngamer64 | Posted 2/12/2010 9:56:26 PM | message detail | filter | #029
Also... I'm the guy who's been hyping up Marth for a week, yet I'm the highest Seph predictor? What the heck, guys.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/12/2010 10:40:36 PM | message detail | filter | #030
Apart from Lopen, all of the predictions here are within a 3% range. No one else apparently had a prediction between 69% and 70% except for me.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/12/2010 10:59:47 PM | message detail | filter | #031
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Hmm... if you'd told me this result pre-Contest I wouldn't have hesitated to label it a disappointing performance, considering how Squall is trying to prove himself to be a Top Ten character for 2010. Given the recent struggles that heavy favorites and new Square reps have been having, however, I've no choice but to reverse my decision and label this showing as "pretty solid." Regardless of if Akuma is sub-Ken anymore these days, I'd say Squall's 68% is good enough to retain his favorite status heading into that battle with Auron, though I still wouldn't discount the possibility of an upset. Fortunately for Auron, Zero's impressive work yesterday has given him a chance to redeem himself in R2, whereas Squall could hang 85% on Terra and I think we'd all just shrug our shoulders.

Say, speaking of new Square with a chance to redeem itself, check THIS out. Cloud and Cid have set the expectation bar for Final Fantasy 7 to an all-time low (post-2003, at least); will the limbo lessons Seph's been taking since the Bowser match in 2005 continue to pay off? I've got to imagine they will, just based on what a terrible position the (former?) #3 on this site has been placed into. Being a heavy favorite in 2010 is bad, being from the most anti-voted game on the site is worse, facing a well-liked Nintendo low carder is worst... and having that Nintendo guy be top tier in both Melee and Brawl while looking cool in the match pic and having an even bigger sword than your own on full display is, erm, super-worst?

(I mean bigger in terms of width, not length. I'll let you be the judge on which is more important.) On top of that, Seph seems to be the easiest guy in the world to rally against. In those multiple option matches he was knocked out first by Samus, then Snake, then Kirby... now granted Cloud was always in the picture back then to mess him up, but I still don't think it bodes well for him. All that being said, Sephiroth just LOVES to not make a bit of sense in these Contests, and so even with every trend in the book working against him I still don't rule out the possibility of him swimming upstream to post a big number in this one. I've got to guard against that at least a little bit, so I'm going to still pick him to make it into the 70s... barely.

Ngamer Says: Sephiroth > Marth, 70.92%

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SSBM_Guy | Posted 2/12/2010 11:05:13 PM | message detail | filter | #032
oh hey
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~5th Place in the SP2K9 Contest~ Oh, baby! Sweet! That rocks!
when thinking of Krystal, does GMUN's pants get overcrowded? ~ GMUN
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:08:46 PM | message detail | filter | #033
Oh wow, NGamer got a writeup in before the match started!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/12/2010 11:11:08 PM | message detail | filter | #034
Looks like Bishie SFF wins the day =/

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:11:39 PM | message detail | filter | #035
What are you talking about? Marth's still overperforming!
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
transience | Posted 2/12/2010 11:18:51 PM | message detail | filter | #036
Seph > Cloud prepare for it
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/12/2010 11:19:35 PM | message detail | filter | #037
*Snake > Seph > Cloud

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transience | Posted 2/12/2010 11:20:05 PM | message detail | filter | #038
Marth > Proto Man
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/12/2010 11:20:21 PM | message detail | filter | #039
no

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
transience | Posted 2/12/2010 11:20:38 PM | message detail | filter | #040
very yes

(I can't even tell if you're serious)
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/12/2010 11:21:09 PM | message detail | filter | #041
Bishie SFF

(this part is)

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:21:20 PM | message detail | filter | #042
Akuma > All those losers
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:21:44 PM | message detail | filter | #043

From: KamikazePotato | #041
Bishie SFF

(this part is)


This should be the least serious thing.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
transience | Posted 2/12/2010 11:22:06 PM | message detail | filter | #044
hmm Akuma vs. Marth

I want to pick Akuma, but I could see Marth winning just because the apathetic people would know Marth and not Akuma
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:23:06 PM | message detail | filter | #045
It's a sad day when a SSB guy is more well-known than a Street Fighter dude who's been around for 15 years.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
transience | Posted 2/12/2010 11:23:58 PM | message detail | filter | #046
that's not a sad day, that's a day on GameFAQs

it's been this way since 2002
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 2/12/2010 11:26:12 PM | message detail | filter | #047
Nah this is definitely not an overperformance when you weigh in those turds Cloud and Cid laid. Even without considering them though I'd expect Marth to get around this (considering Seph is gonna raise a good 5% from here on out)
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transience | Posted 2/12/2010 11:30:03 PM | message detail | filter | #048
Sephiroth's just supernovaing the stats again here.

Marth is a first-hour kind of dude though so this could be especially bad overnight.
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/12/2010 11:36:20 PM | message detail | filter | #049
Yup, got it in with 13 seconds to spare, AND won another accuracy point. Two more great reasons to be proud of myself for today!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2010 11:38:10 PM | message detail | filter | #050
Assuming Sephiroth quits messing around and decides to go for 70% here.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."