GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Ugh, darn you Dante! Just when my Ryu pick was finally starting to look reasonable, the jerk had to come along and dash my hopes within minutes. I said yesterday that I'd be "very impressed" if Dante could make a run for 70- well, he did, and I am! Now obviously Axel was KH2-hyped to high heaven back in '06, but still, for Dante to come so close to equaling Mega Man's 1v1 performance is nothing to take lightly. And despite Balthier redeeming himself somewhat in '08 I'd still take Axel without hesitation in a head to head situation, so, yeah... Dante appears to be legit after all, and even I'll have admit that Ryu's a pretty heavy underdog for next round. *sigh* Hopefully today's match will lift my spirits somewhat- and it ought to, because it's way too good to be happening in the opening round! Snake's a pretty unique character in that despite being a hugely recognizable household name, it's still very hard to dislike or anti-vote him, as you might a Cloud/Mario/Master Chief/Pikachu. That always makes him a delight to watch in Round 1, because even if you feed him terrible fodder (see: Tanner) he'll still manage to make something interesting happen (see: 94%). Well, not this year- I can't see there being any way Snake challenges Mario for blowout of the round, not with a vastly underseeded Proto Man in the picture. On the one hand I'm a little upset about such an intriguing wildcard (his only match was against Zero, and then Zero played Mega Man- yikes!) being wasted in R1, but on the other hand, at least he's set up for a respectable performance. Snake seems to have trouble with Mega Man for whatever reason (including losing by 3% more than the previous year for who knows why in '04 and failing to smack him around worse than Sonic in '06 despite all indications being to the contrary). Also, much like in '08, the voters this year seem to be smart enough to know when a favorite is "safe" enough to not feel bad about throwing the loser a pity vote, so I could see Zero capitalizing on that at least a little bit. Especially with such a sweet match pic, wow! In summary, a traditional 80+ R1 beatdown seems out of the picture for Snake... but he's still Snake, so (unless you're BT) there's no way he lets a 16 seed hang around in the 60s. Sooo, let's go for a nice number in the middle, like Ngamer Says: Snake > Proto Man, 75.73% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Ryu 68.97% 35377 Balthier Bunansa 31.03% 15920 TOTAL VOTES 51297 Dante 69.37% 49791 Axel 30.63% 21988 TOTAL VOTES 71779 Crew Predictions - 41/48 What Happened: Dante: Anything Ryu can do, I can do better. Why it Happened: Balthier is weaksauce and Ryu showed that. Dante = Mega Man (no Axel is just very weak now) What will Happen: I'd still take Axel over Balthier so gg Ryu Crew Prediction Challenge - 2 points for all Kleenex - 44 Moltar - 42 Tran - 41 Red Sox - 41 Ngamer - 39 Lopen - 38 Guest - 35 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Red Sox gets Ryu, Lopen gets Dante Lopen - 9 Moltar - 8.5 Ngamer - 7 Tran - 7 Red Sox - 6.5 Kleenex - 5 Guest - 4 (Bio: 1, CM: 1, Marsman: 1, FF999: 1) --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Snake > Proto Man (42/48) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
hmm whoops I'll chalk this up to popular characters being utterly unable to blow people out. I can't believe we haven't broken 80% as our top result so far. --- xyzzy |
Mario broke 80% against Falco. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
yeah, I mean that we haven't gone higher despite having 128 characters. --- xyzzy |
Gear Division: Round 1 - Match 50 – (8) Lloyd Irving vs. (9) Fox McCloud Moltar’s Analysis Lloyd Symphonia returns with its weaker protagonist Fox Fawkes On one hand you have a character that easily lost to something called a Mudkip and MMX last year. On the other hand you have a character than got 44% on Sora in a fair match and then HURT YOSHI ENOUGH TO CAUSE HIM TO NOT GO ON TO ROUND 3 YES I’M STILL MAD ABOUT THIS! Ignore the fact that Yoshi looked less than great in Round 1. Fox was not supposed to hinder Yoshi that much Fox was supposed to get SFF-smashed into the ground. Ugh, so lame. Oh btw Fox wins. Also lol kratos Moltar’s Bracket: Fox > Lloyd Moltar’s Prediction: Lloyd: 34% - Fox: 66% Lopen’s Analysis My guru bracket has Lloyd winning here. Mostly cause I realized that getting one or two wrong in round 1 wasn't going to hurt me given the bracket and if Lloyd wins I really wanted to be in the right. I was wrestling with two aspects of my personality, thinking whether I wanted to try and remain credible or hype a really slim chance for an upset using some butchery of logic and stats that you've all grown to love. Fortunately for my dwindling analysis crew cred but unfortunately for Lloyd, Kratos Aurion then lost to a hackey sack, burying any hope I've had for a ToS character to win anything ever again. GO LLOYD! Lopen's prediction: Fox McCloud with 59.94% Transience’s Analysis Fox is stronger than Sackboy. Lloyd is weaker than Kratos. There's not much else to say here. Fox is going to win this and he could win it big. He's better known, better liked and from a bigger Nintendo series. Yeah, Tales isn't a Nintendo series but it might as well be when it comes to Symphonia. There's a lot of overlap there. The main reason people got into Tales is because this place is Nintendo-crazy and Tales is one of the only RPGs on the Gamecube worth a damn. Put this on the PS2 and it probably gets lost in the shuffle like Shadow Hearts or Persona. Then again, Persona seems to have inexplicably gotten a sizable fanbase so who the hell knows? transience's prediction: Fox with 68.94% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Fox > Lloyd, 67.11% Kleenex’s Analysis I don't have that much respect for Fox, honestly. He's done "okay" since he's gotten back in these things, but he hasn't really blown me away. Probably a little overrated overall, but he's facing Lloyd here, so there's a free pass. Bracket: Fox Favorites: Man, I'm totally apathetic about both these guys Prediction: Fox with 59.45% |
Red Sox’s Analysis Fox got a very unlucky draw in the 2002 and 2003 contests, running in the Link and Cloud very early in those contests, and then was absent for 3 years even while he established himself as the number 1 character in Melee, which become probably the 3rd most powerful contest force behind FFVII and OOT for a couple years while Brawl hype was at its height. In 2007 Fox returned and did very well as I’d thought he would, smashing aside characters like Peach and Meta-Knight that are not in his league, but that the long years of absence had made people think were. Unfortunately he ran into Mario before he could prove himself in a non-SFF match. In 2008 Fox again did very well, getting over 43% on Sora and then breaking 45% on Yoshi, even after any SFF Yoshi had to deal out. Meanwhile, Lloyd is fodder, plain and simple. He got 27% on Zero back in 2005, when Tales of Symphonia characters were decent. More recently, he…..repeated that 27% against Megaman X and improved considerably on Zero. It’s true that Megaman characters are no longer what they used to be in 2005, but I guess that means Lloyd hasn’t fallen off sharply like Kratos Aurion either. Nonetheless, Sora and MMX are probably pretty close in strength, and Fox got almost 44% on Sora, so he should be on track for a doubling of Lloyd here. Prediction: Fox McCloud with 69.00% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Fox with 73% Lower Bound: Fox with 65% Guest’s Analysis - FantasyFreak999 This match should be interesting because Fox only has one real match to gauge his strength off of: his match against Sora/Chris/Tim. The rest of the time, all we've been able to do is gauge his ranking among Nintendo characters: he's higher than Meta-Knight, but lower than Yoshi. Now, is this good enough to beat out Lloyd? I would hope so, especially since he's weaker than Kratos Aurion, nd he stunk it up against Sackboy. Now, we don't if that's due to Kratos' weakness or Sackboy's strength, but I'd venture to guess that it's the former. Fox should be able to get by into round 2 before getting sniped by the snake. Fox - 59.89% Crew Consensus: Fox does a barrel roll past Lloyd straight to Round 2. |
Lloyd is weaker than Kratos. I wonder if that's even the case anymore. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Come on Crew Curse --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Lloyd beating Fox after Kratos just lost to Sackboy. ...I don't even know. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Wow, 3 writeups with 59.something %s. Might be a close one. --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
I have all my "money" on Fox > 62.5% in the spread betting. He better not mess this up against Tales fodder. --- Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn |
...disregard my last post. Fox is blowing Lloyd outta the water --- "Run, run, or you'll be well done!" ~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~ |
bless you tales characters --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Haven't reviewed these early returns yet. Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Poor Snake! He outperforms Cloud by a good half percent against a similar opponent, yet this is still going to be chalked up as a disappointment. Not by me, however; true he didn't meet my prediction, but I failed to take into account how difficult it is for a heavy favorite to get 3/4ths of the site behind them these days, especially against an opponent who looks appealing in the match pic. Mostly though I was just impressed with the way Snake took control of this poll past the first 5 minutes. Boy were those opening minutes of "this guy is supposed to beat Sephiroth? haha!" talk annoying.... great to see Snake shut them up with a 4% gain after the first 5 mins (and a 7% gain past the first 60 seconds, whoa). PS - If you guys want to see someone re-write the record books on bad opening updates, just keep your eyes open during Seph/Marth! Now, Snake's obviously not going to have any problems in R2, but I'm pretty interested in today's battle regardless. That's because I've always been one of Fox's biggest supporters, going on for years about how he got a raw deal in '02 and '03 and deserved to return to the Contest field. He's shown us flashes in the past two seasons, but was never given a real opportunity to prove himself in a non SFF situation until today, and so I'm certainly hoping he makes the most of it. ESPECIALLY since he's going up against my most hated series in the world! Well, perhaps that's a slight exaggeration... but between all the character slots its wasted and how it burned my bracket yet again in that Sackboy match, I don't exactly have warm fuzzy feelings for Tales at the moment. Now, KP is of the opinion that even though Kratos A has fallen off the map, Lloyd is going to do a better job of maintaining his strength (due to "The Magus Effect"). I don't disagree, but my question is: WHAT strength? We're talking about a guy who, in his "prime," got plastered by Zero to the tune of 73%- the same Zero who lost convincingly to Luigi less than a year later. Now, I'm not saying Fox is quite at that Luigi/Yoshi level yet, but he's probably not tooooo far back, so let's go with a convincing win along the lines of Ngamer Says: Fox > Lloyd, 67.11% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Hey hey, THAT'S what I'm talking about! Great work, Fox! --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Lloyd how you've fallen ;_; --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Fallen? He's doing as well as he would have in 2005! More like "Lloyd, how you've always been awful," IMO. --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
You
know, sometimes the vote turns out really terribly for characters I
like, because apparently people just don't like good characters (or
more accurately don't play the games they're in) but all I gotta say is
that if Fox beats SOLID FRIGGIN SNAKE in R2 I will lose all faith in
the taste of my fellow gamers. --- ka [gamer girls unite!] "Zombies! How dare you kill my butler!" -- nate, persona 1 |
yeah I'm with N here. Lloyd is just as bad as ever. --- xyzzy |
Gear Division: Round 1 - Match 51 – (5) Pikachu vs. (12) Banjo Moltar’s Analysis Pikachu You saved us already, rat. Now leave forever. Banjo If this were Kazooie well now there’s a tough match. Hey it’s Pikachu’s first 1v1 match in forever. The rat has looked good in four-ways, but has the hate died down enough for him to be the Pikachu we saw in 2007 and 2008? Charizard and Mewtwo looked good, but Pikachu…isn’t as cool as them. The rat lacks that “cool” appeal the former two Pokemon have, but it is the face of the series. I’m guessing he’ll still have a good amount of strength in this format. Oh, Banjo is in this match too. Moltar’s Bracket: Pikachu > Banjo Moltar’s Prediction: Pikachu: 70% - Banjo: 30% Lopen’s Analysis Transience’s Analysis Pikachu's in a 1v1. Will he be anti-voted? I don't mean "will he lose?", but this is the kind of match that Master Chief would bomb and get 60% in. If Pikachu has that same kind of fanbase, he could look pretty bad here. Banjo won't threaten, but he can probably pull a nice 35% if anti-voting happens. Banjo is weak as hell so that would be pretty sad for Pika's sake. I'll give Pika the benefit of the doubt here and say he'll only be affected minimally. He's impressed enough over the last three years for me to give him that. transience's predix: Pikachu with 69.65% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Pikachu > Banjo, 68.93% Kleenex’s Analysis Godslayer. Savior. Rat. Just a few words to describe our lovable Pikachu. He's come a long way from 2003, making great runs in 2007 and 2008. And now he's primed and ready to beat the not out of Banjo and whoever makes it out of that disaster of a match that's happening in the afternoon. Sucks that he hits a dead end at Snake (or does he?!), because I've grown rather fond of the little guy in the past few years. But back to this match. Banjo laid a big fat egg two years in a row, and it pseudo-Nintendo, so Pikachu's probably gonna have a nice punching bag here. How high does he need to go to look impressive? Pretty high, I'd say. I can't see Pikachu pulling off any less than a doubling here. Not like it matters that much seeing as his path is set in stone (unless he pulls like 85% or something), but it'll be good to see if Pikachu's strength from the past two years translates over to the 1v1 format. Bracket: Pikachu Favorites: Pikachu Prediction: Pikachu with 68.89% Red Sox’s Analysis Pikachu returns to 1v1 after having an amazing 2 years in 4-ways. Will he maintain his 4-way strength, in which he looked to be right on the level of Luigi, Bowser, and Yoshi, or even Ganondorf and Zelda? Or will we see the old heavily anti-voted Pikachu from 2002 and 2003 who let Parappa get way too close to him? There are probably still some anti-votes left for Pikachu, but it shouldn’t be anywhere near what it was back in 2003. The anti-votes may stand out a little more here than in 4-ways, but this should still be, more or less, the Pikachu we know and love from the past 2 years. Pikachu made a case for himself as the #4 Nintendo character last year, and while the L-Block match was untrustworthy for obvious reasons, the way Pikachu stood up to Samus, Crono, and Vincent seriously impressed me. While few would actually take him over most of those tier 2 Nintendo characters, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he managed the upset over them. |
Banjo
on the other hand is fodder. He got tripled by Fox in 2007 and almost
quadrupled by Megaman in 2008, and he’s susceptible to SFF in this
match. However, blowouts have been very rare this contest, so I’ll be
fairly conservative and predict…… Prediction: Pikachu with 75.05% Upset Potential: 0% Upper Bound: Pikachu with 80% Lower Bound: Pikachu with 68% Guest’s Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII Pikachu PI-KAA! *Thunderbolt* Banjo Eh, Kazooie had all the best lines. Okay, so my first attempt at an analysis didn’t turn out so well. This time I’m familiar with the characters, though, so it should be better. Also, the only tough part about this match is coming up with a percentage. Due to a 3-year absence from the contest, it’s impossible to tell exactly when Pikachu went from the piece of utter fodder he was in the first two Character Battles to the solid competitor that made the quarterfinals of Character Battles 6 and 7, but if I had to guess, I’d say it probably happened somewhere around the release of the fourth-generation games—or more accurately, the accompanying seasons of the anime, at which point all of the hatred once directed at Pikachu got transferred over to Piplup. Pikachu, on the other hand, seems to have matured after over a decade of adventuring with a trainer who never ages, and is now trying to look out for the younger, more foolish Pokémon—but this contest is about games, not anime, so back on topic. It is still somewhat relevant, though, as the series as a whole has also diminished in hatred. The best explanation I can come up with is that after all these years, the haters have moved on and found other things to deride, while the fans still remain loyal. And that’s what makes this match so one-sided. Banjo is kind of cool, in a dopey way, but like I said in the open, he’s overshadowed by his sidekick—and his enemy, for that matter. Also, he doesn’t get as many new games. Pikachu, on the other hand, is one of the most well-known Pokémon, and Pokémon is one of the more well-known series. Also, their fans happen to be rallying right now with the ensuing rerelease of the second-generation games and the recent announcement of the fifth generation. Add to Pikachu’s own recent successes the overwhelming success that Red/Blue/Yellow enjoyed in the 2009 Best. Game. Ever. Contest—beating the tar out of Majora’s Mask twice, the second time with Gold/Silver leaching off of it, then standing up to MGS and FFVIII to advance to the contest quarterfinals behind eventual winner Ocarina of Time, and you’ve got a proven winner. It should be mentioned that in the first round of said 2009 contest, when RBY managed to break 50% in a four-way, Banjo-Kazooie was the fourth-place finisher, with all of 8.75%. Um…yeah. There may have been some N64 STF in that poll, but that can’t be a fluke. Pikachu got a pretty nice bracket placement this year in regards to the first two rounds, but might have had a chance at pulling a real shocker (no pun intended) if he was in a different division with one of the numerous underperforming elites we’ve seen so far. The underperformance of heavy favorites has been well-noted…but I still think Pikachu’s got a tripling in him, or at least pretty close. Pikachu with 75% of the vote Crew Consensus: Pikachu Volt Tackles Banjo the hell outta here |
Lopen with the killer analysis --- xyzzy |
Oh man, did I really go the lowest on Pikachu? --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
well, it's Banjo. he's not only weak, he's out-Nintendo'd. --- xyzzy |
Banjo is really really bad Like if Pikachu doesn't get 70% here I'll be very disappointed --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Well,
we've just has so few potential blowouts actually meet their
expectations, it's hard to go too high in a situation like this. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Banjo
is even out-furried and out-cutesied in this match. I know it's hard to
see Pikachu SFFing anyone, but this is a really good chance for that to
happen. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
He is out-yellowed too ! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
let's go banjo --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Banjo's supposed to be cute? he looks dumb! --- xyzzy |
Lots of 'cute' characters look dumb! This isn't new! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
cute sux --- xyzzy |
^.^ --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
kill it with fire --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
HM's still mad about that down throw abuse he took --- xyzzy |
these things all come from Japan let's bury Japan --- xyzzy |
jigglypuff the worst of the worst --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Let's go Pikachu. He's the best out of all these "cute" characters! --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
listen to that name - jiggly puff get this out --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
http://globaltribune.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/rufus.jpg I think I lost my train of thought somewhere along the line --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
The similarity to Quina isn't far off! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Pikachu > Snake confirmed --- xyzzy |
Pika! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Guest Clan lookin' good! Crew sux 'cept for red sox what? --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
LOL Banjo --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
DAMNIT!
I was actually going to go a tad under 75%, but I figured that if
someone went with 75 exactly, I'd be safer doing the same...and Red Sox
goes 75.05 on me, which means I pretty much have to root for it to go down a bit. --- CB8 score: 38 Incorrect picks: Ocelot, Wesker, Fawful, Tidus (2 rounds), Phoenix (2 rounds), Simon, Kratos Aurion |
Solid Snake 72.35% 37482 Proto Man 27.65% 14321 TOTAL VOTES 51803 Lloyd Irving 32.75% 22154 Fox McCloud 67.25% 45500 TOTAL VOTES 67654 Crew Predictions - 43/50 What Happened: Snake gets his blowout, Fox beats down Lloyd Why it Happened: No comment really on Snake's match. Did as expected there. As for Lloyd, pretty much everyone saw that coming after Kratos. What will Happen: Fox should do...okay against Snake I guess Crew Prediction Challenge - 2 points for all Kleenex - 46 Moltar - 44 Tran - 43 Red Sox - 43 Ngamer - 41 Lopen - 40 Guest - 37 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Moltar gets the point for Snake, Ngamer gets the point for Lloyd Moltar - 9.5 Lopen - 9 Ngamer - 8 Tran - 7 Red Sox - 6.5 Kleenex - 5 Guest - 4 (Bio: 1, CM: 1, Marsman: 1, FF999: 1) --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Pikachu > Banjo (44/50) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
