GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/7/2010 9:42:54 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #301
Red Sox’s Analysis

There were high hopes for Balthier of FFXII when he first made it into a contest, and at that time this may have been a debated match, but in his first match, Balthier lost to Ada Wong. This match is then an easy win for Ryu, with the primary question being whether Ryu can impress enough to show he has a chance against Dante next round. I’ve always thought Dante a solid favorite over Ryu, and never understood why so many people took Ryu. That said, they’re statistically not too far apart, so perhaps I am overly confident in Dante.

The main thing I can’t get over is how bad Street Fighter looked in the Games Contest. Sonic games failed left and right…..except to Street Fighter 2. Street Fighter 4……beat Persona 4 by 7 votes. I’m sorry to rehash this point for the 100th time, but but but……Persona 4. How on earth did Street Fighter 4 get so close to losing to Persona 4? Ken also looked very bad, though he was partially redeemed by the RE boost seeming to be clear and evident.

Prediction: Ryu with 70.07%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Ryu with 74%
Lower Bound: Ryu with 66%



Guest’s Analysis - TheKoolAidShoto

Ryu – Building up super meter for taking on Dante

Balthier – Building up mana for taking on Fran

Remember when Balthier was hyped up for being a strong character in these things? Everybody liked the guy! Even people who hated FFXII saw Balthier as a bright spot. He’s the freakin’ Han Solo of the game, and he’s totally nailing Fran in secret. And yet, he got beat by ADA WONG. I know FFXII isn’t that popular, but geez. It’s a sad tale of man some hoped to be the next Auron, but couldn’t even be the next Tidus.

Ryu, icon of fighting games that he is, always looks good in these contests. He and Dante are the only non-Noble Niners to have a win in every contest they’ve been in. He always gets great match pictures, I can’t recall him getting anti-voted, and now he’s got Street Fighter IV backing him up! I don’t know if that will be enough to boost him ahead of Dante, but I’m taking him anyway, especially if he can handle the leading man here pretty convincingly.

TheKoolAidShoto’s Prediction:
Ryu – 66%
Balthier – 34%



Crew Consensus: Ryu’s hadokens Balthier outta here
red sox 777 | Posted 2/7/2010 9:44:09 PM | message detail | filter | #302
Whoa, my Ryu prediction is so much higher than everyone's. Probably should lower it in the Oracle.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
ZFS | Posted 2/7/2010 9:44:55 PM | message detail | filter | #303
Red sox amazingly has the right idea here. 70%+ happenin' book it

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Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/7/2010 9:45:44 PM | message detail | filter | #304
Yours sounds like the most legit, actually. I can't see Balthier avoiding the doubling here. He's fodder... he lost to a 3rd tier RE character. If Ryu can't at least double him, let alone high 60s, almost 70%, he has no shot at Dante.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/7/2010 9:51:38 PM | message detail | filter | #305
Yeah, I thought I lowballed Ryu when I typed that up, and I really do expect him to double Balthier .
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Ngamer64 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:36:16 PM | message detail | filter | #306
Superbowl stuff (whoo Saints!) has my schedule all messed up; trying to catch back up before this next match kicks off.

Haven't reviewed these "early" returns yet.

Ngamer's Fantasical Writeup

Very strange match yesterday... the consensus pick was Leon with well over 77%, high enough to make him one of the biggest disappointments of R1 from a purely statistical standpoint. But honestly, is anyone ACTUALLY disappointed in him? To me that result seemed almost 100% a Vault Boy overperformance, and that if anything Leon fans should be proud of their man for managing 60% despite a huge pic disadvantage. Yeah, this result doesn't make me feel any worse about his chances against Ryu or Dante; it was just a matter of running into a very dedicated fanbase finding a mascot to rally behind, who looked good enough in the pic to get some casuals hopping onboard as well. Now then, as long as we're on the subject of non-traditional characters with eye catching match pictures...

First off, let me just say this: LittleBigPlanet has never been given a fair shake on this site. It was a well-received PS3 exclusive at a time when the only PS3 exclusive it was acceptable to support was MGS4. Since its debut LBP has appeared in three major site-wide polls... and MGS4 has been an option in every one of them. (Best PS3 Game was unavoidable, but SB choosing to stick SB [heh] in with Snake, THEN kill Planet's BGE2 chances by moving it into MGS4's match is inexcusable.) I think the game has gotten some good word of mouth in the past year and it was also heavily promoted when ported to the PSP, which could give it some fairly respectable strength these days, especially given the growth of PS3 ownership in recent months.

Secondly, good gracious do I ever despise the Tales series. Not only has it wasted countless (slight exaggeration) perfectly good character slots over the past five years, now its also becoming a kind of "mini-Kefka" when it comes to my bracket. As in, I was so sick of expecting the series to be worth ANYTHING that I decided to ignore it completely in '09, and it responded by... beating God of War and San Andreas out of nowhere, naturally. So logically, we're all set up to have Kratos burn me by somehow choking this match away. I've got to admit that Sackboy has me a bit worried: the PS3's on the rise, non-traditional characters are doing just fine, and he's sporting the most eye-catching pic this side of Vault Boy. But nay, can't quite pull the trigger on this upset; unlike Lloyd, Kratos hasn't always been a complete chump and so I've got a little bit of faith in him, plus the guy's sporting a pretty cool pic himself. Since when has betting against anime-styled sword-weilding jRPG heroes who are favorites within their own fanbase been a good idea?

Final answer: I've lost some confidence here and had to knock off a few points after seeing that VB performance, but I still like Kratos to pull off a close win along the lines of

Ngamer Says: Kratos A. > Sackboy, 51.17%

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Ngamer64 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:55:41 PM | message detail | filter | #307
I love that the night tranny sarcastically asks for my Oracle advice he follows up by miscalling the result by 10%!


(Granted I missed by 7%, but let's not dwell on such minor details!)

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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/7/2010 10:59:34 PM | message detail | filter | #308
now its also becoming a kind of "mini-Kefka" when it comes to my bracket.

aw yeah

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/7/2010 11:03:59 PM | message detail | filter | #309
seems you may have actually undershot Ryu, Sox!
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/7/2010 11:06:02 PM | message detail | filter | #310
Yup. Balthier is pathetic.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/7/2010 11:22:39 PM | message detail | filter | #311
Also, you guys do realize that Ryu doubling Balthier or less would have been a horrific flop and paved the way for Dante to win with ease.

I'm saying this because I see people who have Ryu>Dante saying that's what would happen! Balthier sucks, guys!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/7/2010 11:24:08 PM | message detail | filter | #312
Also, you guys do realize that Ryu doubling Balthier or less would have been a horrific flop and paved the way for Dante to win with ease.

Some of us were hoping for this, yes!
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GTM | Posted 2/7/2010 11:28:31 PM | message detail | filter | #313
bump tag reup
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 11:28:55 PM | message detail | filter | #314
Man, I'm surprised people undershot Ryu by so much. I have Dante > Ryu, and I expected at least a doubling here!
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transience | Posted 2/8/2010 12:46:55 AM | message detail | filter | #315
whoa, go Ryu.

I have Dante beating Ryu easily so yeah, I didn't expect huge things here. I have a bad feeling about Dante right now though (and it's not because Ryu is doing well)
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xyzzy
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/8/2010 1:09:41 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #316
Leon Kennedy 60.81% 34007
Vault Boy 39.19% 21917
TOTAL VOTES 55924

Sackboy 54.58% 38845
Kratos Aurion 45.42% 32320
TOTAL VOTES 71165


Crew Predictions - 39/46

What Happened: Leon gets 60% on Vault Boy, Sackboy beats Kratos.

Why it Happened: Vault Boy does have some legit strength it seems. At least, I think that performance speaks better for him than it does Leon. Meanwhile, Kratos sux ToS sux.

What will Happen: Leon should have an easier time in Round 2.



Crew Prediction Challenge - 2 points for Kleenex

Kleenex - 42
Moltar - 40
Tran - 39
Red Sox - 39
Ngamer - 37
Lopen - 36
Guest - 33



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Tran gets the point for Leon and Kleenex gets it for Sackboy

Moltar - 8.5
Lopen - 8
Ngamer - 7
Tran - 7
Red Sox - 5.5
Kleenex - 5
Guest - 4 (Bio: 1, CM: 1, Marsman: 1, FF999: 1)
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu > Balthier (40/46)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/8/2010 2:42:25 AM | message detail | filter | #317
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Good heavens, Kratos! A loss I could understand (things were certainly trending in Sackboy's favor, as I talked about), but almost losing in an Ulti-blowout? Apparently Tale Of's hardcore following can still do enough to keep it afloat in 4way situations, but the series is going to be hopeless from here out in a 1v1 setting. Which is music to my ears, frankly! Now if only we could convince people to stop throwing away their nominations... But yeah, I'm still having some trouble wrapping my mind around that final percentage. If Sackboy can easily crunch a formerly respectable lower mid-carder, the PS3 is obviously in a pretty healthy position. And yet Nathan Drake couldn't even keep up with The Boss? Even though Liquid Snake got destroyed by Altair? Despite fellow 360 action stars Ezio, Kratos, and The Prince making fools of themselves? Start making sense, you stupid trends!

Shocker #1: Citing SF4, the sprite round, and a general lack of enthusiasm towards DMC in recent years, I picked Ryu to upset both Dante and Leon this season. Shocker #2: I probably STILL have about the lowest percentage for this one! Yup, Ryu's one of my favorite characters and so I take him to go too far in brackets pretty consistently, but dang, was my faith ever shaken by that terrible Ken performance. After it became clear an incredibly weak character like Wesker was going to be going blow for blow with him all day I tore up my bracket and said "you dope! SF2 did nothing, SF4 was a huge bomb, Sub-Zero and Scorpion looked like junk in the vote ins- why in the world would you still expect fighting games to be relevant in the year 2010?"

Fortunately, things have certainly been trending heavily against my outraged reaction ever since. Jill and Chris knocked our socks off, making it seem that maybe post-RE5 Wesker is on a whole different tier than the chump we saw back in 2005. Then Sub-Zero proved that he hasn't lost a step since '06 by dispatching of Tidus fairly easily... and as the #1 fighter on the site, surely Ryu must have maintained a decent advantage on Subby, especially with SF4, SSF4, and TvC keeping him somewhat relevant? Yes, maybe my Ryu faith wasn't quite so crazy after all- but even so, I can't entirely get the bad taste out of my mouth from that Ken match, and so I'm going to play it safe by lowballing Ryu here and hoping he performs well above expectations.

Go Ryu!

Ngamer Says: Ryu > Balthier, 63.69%

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 7:04:19 AM | message detail | filter | #318
Sub-Zero...looked like junk in the vote ins

Wait, what?
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/8/2010 9:40:14 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #319
Midgar Division: Round 1 - Match 48 – (2) Dante Sparda vs. (15) Axel

Moltar’s Analysis

Dante
Yes that Dante

Axel
Yes that Axel

Axel broke 30% on Mega Man? Okay factor in how much weaker Dante is than MM and that Axel is weaker now than when he was KH-fueled in 2006 you end up with something like this.

What an analysis this is.

Moltar’s Bracket: Dante > Axel

Moltar’s Prediction: Dante: 64% - Axel: 36%



Lopen’s Analysis

Axel might look good here. It's a day match and we all know about that cool KH day vote stuff. I'm thinking it's more the opposite that happens, though. Axel's probably going to age worse than the other more major KH characters. Not saying they're necessarily at the point where they're aging, but I do think the franchise needs a bit more than 352/9 days to remain relevant today. Axel takes more brunt than Riku, who takes more brunt than Sora.

Of course there's also the possibility that Axel plays a really big role in 331/5 days and thus boosts like Roxas might've. In which case he might do a good 5% better than this. *shrug

Let's get this Dante > Cloud hype train started who's with me.

Lopen's prediction:
Dante with 68.36%



Transience’s Analysis

Nice performance by Ryu today. Dante needs a nice performance or else Ryu may walk into that round 2 match as the favourite.

Axel is stronger than Balthier, so Dante doesn't quite need 70% here to impress. Hell, Mega Man couldn't get that. I'm a little worried about Dante though. Ryu Hayabusa had a mediocre performance and Kratos's was flat out bad. Prince of Persia also got crushed. All of these guys are your standard 3d action characters and they're probably pretty closely related. None of them have looked good. If everyone else looks bad, I expect Dante to have some trouble too.

How much trouble? Not enough to make Ryu look like the clear favourite. But if Dante struggles to keep this above 60%, there will be a damn lot of Ryu pickers next round.

transience's prediction: Dante with 64.81%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Dante > Axel, 63.47%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Axel's had one notable match, and missed the field last year. Dante is a guy who has been around forever and always does well. Like the last match, this is more of a question about how well Dante does. Also like the last match, I see Dante pulling off around a doubling. These two matches are more about reading Ryu vs. Dante next round (spoilers: Dante wins).


Bracket: Dante
Favorites: Dante
Prediction: Dante with 66.02%



Red Sox’s Analysis

It’s Dante’s turn to give a display of strength to signal that he will win over Ryu next round and Leon the round after that. Axel impressed in 2006 by putting up 30% on Megaman, and then was the victim of one of Frog’s comebacks in 2007. Axel is probably around his 2007 strength now, and he’s had 358/2 days since then to help stave off whatever happened to Riku (most of Riku’s drop was probably between 2006, the year of KH2, and 2007, anyway).

Frog got 37% on Bowser in a day match, so let’s call that 38% in a 24-hour match. Bowser and Dante are probably pretty close nowadays, post-Deboost, with perhaps a slight edge for Dante, and Frog should be stronger now than in 2007, the worst year Chrono Trigger has seen. That adds up to perhaps 34-35% for Axel on Dante, and a day match should add a percent or two to that figure. So, let’s go with:

Prediction: Dante with 64.00%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Dante with 68%
Lower Bound: Dante with 60%



Crew Consensus: Dante fills Axel’s dark soul with LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/8/2010 9:45:42 AM | message detail | filter | #320
Guess you didn't get my email.

FantasyFreak999's guest writeup

Here we go. Battle of the trenchcoats! This should be interesting...

...if it wasn't for the fact that Dante is in a whole nother league. Really, Dante should blow Axel out of the water. You've got the star of a popular series vs. a low-end square character. Dante's shown that he has a lot of strength by going toe to toe with the likes of Ryu, Vincent, and Yoshi. He's even beaten Leon, Luigi, and Pikachu. The only person that Axel's managed to beat out is Sarah Kerrigan. He did come close to beating out Frog, so he's not probably not that weak... but then again, Roxas didn't look so hot against Heavy, and Riku showed weakness against Ramza. Maybe the KH characters, sans Sora, are going into a decline? Doesnt really matter. Dante's gonna pummel the poor guy.

Dante with 67.31%

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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/8/2010 9:47:04 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #321
turns out I did

but for some reason it was sent to the spam folder which I forgot to check
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu > Balthier (40/46)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/8/2010 10:11:15 AM | message detail | filter | #322
I got Dante with 64%.

Axel plays a really big role in 358/2 Days.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 10:42:34 AM | message detail | filter | #323
I'm a little worried about Dante though. Ryu Hayabusa had a mediocre performance and Kratos's was flat out bad. Prince of Persia also got crushed. All of these guys are your standard 3d action characters and they're probably pretty closely related. None of them have looked good. If everyone else looks bad, I expect Dante to have some trouble too

Maybe, but the difference is that none of those guys have ever looked good outside of 4-ways (and PoP's never really looked good). Dante has. Dante's problem is that he can never win the big one. That's what he'll have to deal with next round. He's easily the strongest 3D action guy around.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 11:09:23 AM | message detail | filter | #324
Yep, Dante's fine.
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transience | Posted 2/8/2010 11:53:09 AM | message detail | filter | #325
Ryu no chance vs. Dante

I agree with you, Leonhart, though I'd say that's kinda unfair since Kratos is somewhat of a new character. I certainly don't think Kratos is some fourway legend or anything. I also agree that he looks the best against weak characters and bombs against good ones. let's see if he can get over this.
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/8/2010 1:45:22 PM | message detail | filter | #326
lol Ryu > Dante
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 1:46:51 PM | message detail | filter | #327
Yeah, Kratos didn't make his debut until 2005 and never got put in a winnable match until 2007. He impressed both times against Alucard and Ryu, really.

I dunno. I think Tails just overperforms against 3-D action heroes! First Dante, now Kratos.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 2/8/2010 1:51:11 PM | message detail | filter | #328
Well, with Tails vs. Dante/Kratos, you've got polar opposites. You've got the cute and cuddly furry mascot vs. the badass violent killer. You're gonna have 2 completely different fanbases voting in contests like these.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 1:56:12 PM | message detail | filter | #329
Cute and cuddly characters are their biggest weakness! Dante/Yoshi makes sense!

Watch out, Charizard! Kratos is comin' for you! Devolve into Charmander if you want to stand a chance!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
Lopen | Posted 2/8/2010 3:38:46 PM | message detail | filter | #330
So guys Axel vs Ridley who you got

I like Axel to take that match with ease.

Dante > Cloud believe.
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ajmrowland | Posted 2/8/2010 3:44:17 PM | message detail | filter | #331
Axel's far from being low-end. His role in the series in General is fairly big, and size of the role usually has nothing to do with how cool a character is.
Ngamer64 | Posted 2/8/2010 6:50:43 PM | message detail | filter | #332
Haven't reviewed these "early " returns yet.

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Wow, great work from Ryu yesterday! Granted the final number wasn't quite as stunning as the 72% he started out with, but between SF's hot NPH/underwhelming morning vote and how popular new Square is with Europe and Asia you had to know he was going to tail off a little. I was actually quite surprised that my pred of 64% ended up being one of the higher guesses out of the Crew, and even so Ryu snapped it with no trouble. Now I'm sure the general reaction has been that Balthier's just completely useless and so the final percentage here doesn't mean anything, but I'm not buying that. FF12 itself managed 24% against very tough competition (TP, HL2, and Phoenix Wright)- for Ryu to barely let its most popular character improve on that number is nothing to sneeze at, and frankly I remain unconvinced that Dante would have performed as well, given the circumstances. Speaking of which...

All favoritism aside, one of the reasons I liked the Ryu upset right from the outset was because DMC continues to stun me. I mean, 29% against the Sonic series in '06 was bad enough, but then to miss the Games Contest entirely? Between those sad showings and the lukewarm reaction to DMC4, I've become convinced that Dante's support is about 80% character design, and so in a 1v1 setting I could still see him caving in against someone people care about at least a little bit (see: Yoshi or, hopefully, Ryu). But as for today specifically, does anyone ACTUALLY care about Axel?

I'm leaning toward "no", but with one caveat: people do care about Kingdom Hearts. (Now I realize I've been beating this drum all season long, but it hasn't let me down yet so allow me to pound it once more.) This site has such a love/hate relationship towards KH that, much like Halo/MC, even though it can't blow anyone out, it likewise cannot BE blown out. In other words, I'd be extremely impressed if Dante followed in Ryu's footsteps and managed to push for 70 in this one. That being said, Axel looks pretty goofy in this pic while Dante looks reasonable cool (as always) and does at least have "the sword factor" working in his favor... so flopping into the 50s also seems unlikely. Okay, then let's stick with something right in the middle, like maybe

Ngamer Says: Dante > Axel, 63.47%

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 6:53:14 PM | message detail | filter | #333
and frankly I remain unconvinced that Dante would have performed as well, given the circumstances.

After looking at the results, do you remain unconvinced?

In other words, I'd be extremely impressed if Dante followed in Ryu's footsteps and managed to push for 70 in this one.

Aw yeah
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Lopen | Posted 2/8/2010 6:57:36 PM | message detail | filter | #334
But as for today specifically, does anyone ACTUALLY care about Axel?

Buh?

The reason he manages to reliably get in despite two more significant characters from the same series draining his nominations is because people care.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 2/8/2010 7:08:03 PM | message detail | filter | #335
They have a funny way of showing it!

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Lopen | Posted 2/8/2010 7:10:52 PM | message detail | filter | #336
Hard to break 30% on THE DANTE SPARDA!? no matter who you are.

Make your time Cloud.
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ZFS | Posted 2/8/2010 7:12:32 PM | message detail | filter | #337
I'm pretty surprised Axel is still getting nominated, too. Who really likes this dude.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/8/2010 7:12:52 PM | message detail | filter | #338
In my favorites bracket Axel won this fourpack. He's got some definite fans.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/8/2010 7:13:40 PM | message detail | filter | #339
Although to be fair my opinions for him went like this

Chain of Memories: awesome
KH2: why did his entire personality change
358/2 Days: okay awesome again

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Lopen | Posted 2/8/2010 7:14:31 PM | message detail | filter | #340
Definitely. Axel is possibly my second favorite dude in this division behind...

Well... whoops.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/8/2010 7:14:32 PM | message detail | filter | #341
I like Axel! Not enough to nominate him anymore, though I was one of the driving forces behind getting him in back in 2006.
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ZFS | Posted 2/8/2010 7:14:49 PM | message detail | filter | #342
Axel winning a fourpack with Ryu, Dante, and Balthier disaster zone

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 7:42:09 PM | message detail | filter | #343
Balthier > Ryu >> Axel > Dante (But I've only played a little bit of DMC1. This may change if I ever go back and continue the series)

Roxas >> Axel, however.

Demyx > Axel, for that matter.
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Lopen | Posted 2/8/2010 7:49:04 PM | message detail | filter | #344
DMC3 Dante is where it's at.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/8/2010 9:44:56 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #345
Gear Division: Round 1 - Match 49 – (1) Solid Snake vs. (16) Proto Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Snake
First stop on the Snake > Seph train

Proto Man
Sacrifice for the Upset Gods

Hey Proto Man is back.

Hey Proto Man had to face Zero 5 years ago.

Hey Proto Man is facing Snake this year.

Hey Proto Man is going to lose again.

Hey Proto Man here’s some percentages.

Moltar’s Bracket: Snake > Proto Man

Moltar’s Prediction: Snake: 73% - Proto Man: 27%



Lopen’s Analysis

Shame Protoman got stuck in an unwinnable match, but at least now we'll see how good he really is. I'm thinking he does pretty well. Nothing spectacular, but enough for people to shout "GOSH SNAKE UNDERPERFORMANCE." I don't see him being weaker than ol Dr. W-- probably a bit stronger,which is some manner of low midcarder I guess.

But yeah any hope for Protoman to win was given up when he blew that whistle upon entry. Sneaking up on Snake to shoot him in the face now has a chance of nil.

Lopen's prediction:
Solid Snake with 71.11%



Transience’s Analysis

Proto Man's back! Proto Man's back!

No one cares!

A few people have talked up Proto Man for like six years. Most people don't think he's worth much of anything, but there's always some people who expect him to be above the fodder line. I can't really see how - he's essentially a NPC from a series that's barely relevant today. Mega Man stays alive because he's iconic. Zero does well enough because he's MEGA MAN BUT BADASS. Proto Man's got that same appeal but is restricted to the classic games and was never truly playable. MM9 doesn't count.

Snake's going to crush this dude.

transience's prediction: Solid Snake with 78.59%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Snake > Proto Man, 75.73%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Busy again tonight, so uh.

Protoman sucks.

That should suffice.


Bracket: Snake
Favorites: Snake
Prediction: Snake with 80.76%



Red Sox’s Analysis

It’s Snake’s turn to try for a blowout in a contest that has sorely lacked them so far. Protoman, however, is not bad fodder, so Snake isn’t in contention for blowout of the round. It’s hard to tell how strong Protoman is since he’s only been in one contest match, an SFF battle with Zero back in 2004. But he did well enough there that we can guess that nowadays he’s probably around the fodder line. Snake will probably be a bit weaker than his 2008 self this year, so let’s go with…..

Prediction: Solid Snake with 75.55%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Snake with 79%
Lower Bound: Snake with 72%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 2/8/2010 9:45:26 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #346
Guest’s Analysis - Black Turtle

Solid Snake

Behind the biggest Noble Nine shakeup we've ever seen and riding hot off a very impressive 2008 contest appearance. Can he impress this year now that MGS4 and Brawl have worn off?

Proto Man

**** yeah Proto Man! Poor guy got royally screwed in his only other contest appearance in 2004 by getting stuck with Zero. The fact that he avoided a Peach/Daisy situation is a testament to his deserving to be here.

Analysis

A fairly boring 1-16 match that won't really tell us anything except what Proto Man's true strength is. He could run the gamut from midcarder to high end fodder since we literally have NO idea where he stands. If Snake impresses, people will be hyping Snake/Sephiroth, if Snake disappoints, people will be pumping up a Mario/Samus/Snake trifecta for the next contest. I'm personally of the opinion that this year, Snake will come back to earth and be a lot closer to his 2006 performance. Luckily we get to see Snake/Squall 3 which will be an excellent gauge. Some people seem to think Proto Man will be a jobber, but his 30% on Zero is actually fairly impressive when you consider just how similar the 2 are. I hate to drag out the Peach/Daisy comparison, but Proto Man/Zero was essentially the same match, but with stronger characters, and Proto Man held up decently. Add in the fact that Mega Man 9 was successful and Mega Man 10 is on the way and I think Proto Man has a bright future ahead of him. If he can impress enough here, perhaps people will stop nominating the same 10 fodderific Tales characters and spare a spot for someone who actually deserves it.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Snake wins with 65.34%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Snake > Proto Man
TuRtLe's Vote: PROTO MAN!



Crew Consensus: Snake knocks Proto Man out with some CQC
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 9:47:04 PM | message detail | filter | #347
If only Protoman could have made it back into the contest before the Mega Man series got weaker.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/8/2010 10:23:28 PM | message detail | filter | #348
Man I'm pegging Snake at 78% and I figured that was a horrific overestimation.

Crew got it right tonight!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/8/2010 10:45:09 PM | message detail | filter | #349
I've got Snake with 85%, you wimps!
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
Mild Guy | Posted 2/9/2010 1:03:13 AM | message detail | filter | #350
No fans of The Protomen around, I see.