GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
From: red sox 777 | #350 Diablo would probably rock Arthas 1-on-1, which makes it all the more curious how Arthas beat him in a 4-way. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
I'm
just sayin extrapolating a guy we've never seen get over 25% is just
asking for trouble. At least Zack we had the r1 match. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'll
wait to see Bowser/Kefka before saying anything definitive. if Kefka
does significantly better than Frog, then I'll say we've got a weird
Kefka Dissidia boost or some such. or maybe his clown picture just
helped him a lot. I don't know. --- xyzzy |
From: Lopen | #352 Time for some HK-47 > L-Block tonight! ...Okay, so L-Block did get over 25%! So what! Never more than 31% though! Then again, that's still about as much as HK-47 got in his one 1-on-1 match! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
I
guess you could look at Dissidia mattering when you see how Cecil did
against Knuckles, but we've been blaming Sonic Team for that. if Dissidia is the reason, then Auron is probably screwed. --- xyzzy |
I
guess you could look at Dissidia mattering when you see how Cecil did
against Knuckles, but we've been blaming Sonic Team for that. Well, there's only so much of that you can blame on Knuckles, really. I'd say it's a combination of Sonic Team sucking, Dissidia boosting, and Zack LFFing Cecil last year. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2924&num=4 Can't no one stop the Block. 35% good enough. In all seriousness though I expect the Block to be a lot weaker too. He'll beat HK and the dude next round easily enough, but never gonna threaten Kratos or anything. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Block will probably be a lot weaker than in 4-ways, but much stronger than he would have been if 2007 had been a 1v1 contest. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Sent in my write-up earlier. Block will probably be a lot weaker than in 4-ways Maybe, but it's hard to tell for sure just based on WCC's performance as he faced someone that could possibly be Tanner level fodder. But I doubt it. Even CATS would have been projected to get at least 90% on Tanner and I'd take Sandal over CATS these days. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Yowza, talk about one of the most hilarious results in a long while! Not only did we call the match wrong in the Oracle, we didn't even expect it to be CLOSE and on average missed the final score by a staggering 14%, making yesterday one of the biggest blown calls in history. Which would be bad enough in a tricky fodder vs newcomer setup, but in this case we'd seen both characters in action a number of times and thought we had a pretty good sense of where they sat. Which leads us to the obvious question: how could this happen? Here are the explanation I saw from browsing Stats yesterday, along with my thoughts. * Kefka's more pic-dependent than Big Boss; no surprise he finally busted out after shedding the lettuce! (erm, okay, except that he STILL DOESN'T LOOK GOOD. it's an improvement, but no way could it have made up the whole difference) * this was a terrible Arthas pic; that doesn't even look like him! (alright, so maybe getting his WoW expansion box shot again would have been ideal, but he still looked very cool. there could be something to the recognition idea though; after all, Samus looked smoking in her Zero Suit but it sure didn't help against Tifa) * DISSIDIA FEAR all up in here! (you're telling me that was a BOOSTED Zidane? sorry, I don't buy it... although if true it would sure help those Tidus/Terra/Jecht picks I've got coming up. fine, I'll buy a little of it!) * everyone hates WoW, it'll bomb every time in a 1v1! (whaaa? where was this line of thought when Thrall was thumping our expectations against Link, or WarCraft was thumping our brackets against GTA?) * Square Renaissance, baby! even the Old School is getting in on the action now! (where the FLIP was this Renaissance when Magus needed it? and how the heck does Vivi do nothing against DK if this is supposed to be "Square's year?") So yeah, I remain largely unconvinced, yet don't have any explanation of my own. Looks like we'll just have to shake our heads for the moment and move on to... Another of the most entertaining characters in Contest history! Unfortunately, unlike Kefka/MC (and like DK), Frog had the misfortune of drawing an unfavorable position this season. 2010 Bowser isn't the feared Noble Nine killer of five years back but should still be able to dispose of a lower Mid tier like Frog without breaking a sweat, so there isn't all that much to talk about here. Now, given my Bowser > Sora Upset Special combined with how bad Magus looked on opening day, you'd think I'd be calling for a King-sized blowout in this one... but somehow I'm just not feeling it. For some reason Frog's always been a paragon of consistency, the polar opposite of Magus' dizzying highs and terrifying lows, and I see that continuing for this season. Also I've always liked Frog with this match pic, whereas I'm not really digging the Koopa King today (as I explained yesterday, I think he's at his best with nostalgia on his side). And then of course this is another Square vs Nintendo battle, which as we've gone over many times always seems to bring out the best in the underdog. All in all I think I'll stick with a fairly low, fairly conservative pick of Ngamer Says: Bowser > Frog, 62.43% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Explanation for Kefka/Arthas is "it's Kefka" No reason to inquire any further! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Man, I have Sora > Bowser, and I went higher than you! What gives! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 29 – (3) L-Block vs. (14) HK-47 Moltar’s Analysis L-Block Winner of the 2007 Character Battle. HK-47 Hasn’t won a Character Battle….yet. So Cube already showed us that Joke Characters are capable of getting 50% in a 1v1 poll. Therefore, L-Block should easily have this. HK’s done what? Beat Lloyd and Jak and narrowly avoided getting tripled by Crono? Well L-Block only…kinda…ya know, beat Link and Cloud and Snake in the same poll. Sure that was 2007, but even in 2008, he put up 40%+ twice on Crono, and last I checked, 40% is more than 26% Moltar’s Bracket: L-Block > HK-47 Moltar’s Prediction: L-Block: 67% - HK-47: 33% Lopen’s Analysis Statement: What the **** is this thing I'm fighting. Inquiry: Excuse me can I-- BOOM SHAPED LIKE A BOOT TO KICK YOUR ASS, FOOL. .... waitttt, don't you hate joke characters Lopen? Nah, I don't hate on the joke characters anymore. Not in 1v1. In 1v1 they're playing by legit rules. None of this "static 30% to win the match" crap. Anyway this is crunch time for the jokes-- WCC's match didn't count. Are they 4REAL like Zack, are they gonna totally bust like Arthas, or are they somewhere in between? I'm thinking somewhere in between-- not a juggernaut, but not weak enough to lose to some droid from a Star Wars game either. Decent midcarder. Would be strangely amused if they were entirely 4REAL though. L-Block with 83% watch out. Lopen's prediction: L-Block with 65.13% Transience’s Analysis I have a good amount of respect for KOTOR after the last couple of years. Each match it's been in, it's gone above and beyond what I would have expected. HK isn't great or anything, but he's not awful either. KOTOR almost beat Halo. WRPGs have been on the upswing and I think it's actually getting stronger over time thanks to Bioware getting so much love lately. Oh, and Mass Effect 2 is the hottest game going right now, so a lot of KOTOR fans are probably swarming the site. All that said, I don't think HK-47 is universal enough to battle with the most universal thing around: a tetris piece. You need a certain amount of mainstream appeal to beat these objects and HK just doesn't have that. HK can probably keep it respectable, but it'll take an L-Block backlash for it to drop this one. As a quick aside, I'm totally behind L-Block this year now that we're in a 1v1. I want to see how far this thing can go and what it can do without having a format advantage. Both WCC and L have pretty easy paths so if we get any momentum, it could be fun to watch. The other 126 characters have no excuse now. transience's prediction: L-Block with 61.48% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: L-Block > HK-47, 59.99% Kleenex’s Analysis Battle of the hyphens. I'm looking forward to this match, just to see what L-Block can do in a 1v1 setting. Will he go on another tear through the bracket like he did back in 2007? Probably not, but he should be good enough to take care of HK-47. HK's moderate strength actually surprises me, to be honest, and even though beating Lloyd Irving isn't exactly an accomplishment, he should put up some decent numbers here. We'll see what happens this year. L-Block's got a few rounds to build up some steam here - something he didn't have the luxury of last year. If the momentum gets rolling, who knows. Could see another repeat of 2007 here. We'll just have to wait and see. Bracket: L-Block Favorites: L-Block Prediction: L-Block with 66.65% |
Red Sox’s Analysis With Frog’s 63-47 loss today, the CTDS boost is gone. The only silver lining is that it appears that Frog at least has stayed around his 2008 level, doing better on Bowser in a day match here than he did on Ganondorf in 2008. That’s very disappointing- that all CTDS has managed, apparently, is to let Frog grudgingly hold his ground for a couple years. Tonight’s match features our 2007 Champion, the L-Block of Doom, the character that crushed Link, Cloud, and Snake. But the massive bandwagon was gone in 2008 as it lost to Crono and Pikachu, and now the block enters its first 1v1 contest, an environment that is not as well suited to it as 4-ways. A static 28% will not be enough to win here. However, L-Block, especially after its incredible 2007 run, is probably a decent midcarder even in 1v1. It beat Ryu in a match with Meta-Knight and the Dog, and the Dog was supposed to channel away joke votes from L, so it’s not inconceivable that L-Block could upset as strong as character as Ryu in 1v1. I wouldn’t take it to win that, but HK-47 is no Ryu. HK-47 got 35% on Zero, who is probably a bit below Ryu, so I’ll use that as my prediction. Prediction: L-Block with 65% Upset Potential: 1% Upper Bound: 70% Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier With WCC and GlaDOS performing above expectations already, it's time to see if our next joke character can do the same. Yeah, I know GlaDOS shouldn't really be considered a joke character, but it had a eyeball picture lol, which could have gotten her some joke votes. I know some people are just hoping for L-Block to lose in the first round, but the upset potential here is pretty much 0%. Remember that HK-47 only got 26.84% against Crono in 2007 while L-Block got 46.37% against Crono in round 2 of 2008. That is a considerable distance to make up here, which simply will not happen through anti-voting alone. We already know where HK-47 stands at - nothing more than high end fodder. HK-47's contest history isn't that great either, being stomped by Sora pre-KH2 and barely edging out Lloyd and Jak. As for L-Block's expected percentage against HK-47, I guess it would also help to look at 2007 Zero. In 2007, Zero got 65% on HK-47 in round 1. Then Zero later goes on to get 47.10% on Crono. 2007 Crono is slightly weaker than 2008 Crono and L-Block got 46.37% on a slightly stronger Crono. This should mean that L-Block is slightly above Zero's level and should get a slightly higher percentage on HK-47 than what Zero got on him. Well, at the very minimum at least. Zero's 47.10% on Crono seems like a legit performance to me. Zero got 65% on HK-47 in round 1, then proceeded to get 70.82% on him the next round. If last place factor on HK-47's part doesn't explain why Zero did better on him in round 2, then Zero underperformed in round 1 because of 3 high end fodder characters. Neither of these high end fodder characters were in any contention to defeat Zero, so I think Zero lost some of his support to help out one of these 3 characters advance along with him. I think L-Block could actually break 70% on HK-47, after how we all greatly underestimated WCC and GlaDOS. That could happen if you think HK-47 did not get last place factored in round 2 of 2007. Round 2 was also the match where HK-47 had 26.84% on Crono. And because L-Block got 46.37% on Crono in their first encounter, it would seem reasonable that L-Block could get around 70% on HK-47. HK-47 only dropped from 21.30% in round 1 to 13.45% in round 2, which I don't think would be considered last place factor here. For someone who is high end fodder, dropping from 21.30% to 13.45% the next round doesn't seem like a large enough drop between rounds to be considered last place factor. And now, for my final words: L-Block will pound this pathetic loser! Luster Soldier's bracket: L-Block Luster Soldier's Prediction: L-Block - 71.18% |
Crew Consensus: Apparently, L’s shaped like a boot to kick HK-47’s robot ass. Also got this non-official Guest Analysis First of all, I was gonna stick with my bracket and pick L-block in this writeup. Then I remembered how hypocritical it would be of me to do so after I told the guests that every debatable match, they should take the upset just to counter the Crew. Now a lot of you may say "HK-47 has no chance" and that this isn't debatable, especially after WCC kicked Sandal's ass with 78% of the vote, thus proving jokes can get much more than 50%. The thing is though, Sandal is ALSO a joke. And he's also probably Tanner-ific. HK-47 is nowhere near as **** as Sandal. HK is capable of winning matches. I briefly considered HK-47 just because I thought maybe L-block would have his static 30% fanbase but not much higher. HK will have a huge portion of the KOTOR and Star Wars fanbase behind him. The question is, will it be enough? I don't think L-block is a complete "joke" character though. Same goes for WCC. These characters are an extension of their games' fanbases. Tetris fans (of which there are millions) have no real character to rally behind. I'm sure if there WAS a character in that game it would be a high midcarder, just like L-block will be in 1v1s. Thus, in my bracket I went with L-block in the end and I think it will score around 60%. But for the purposes of sticking to my guns as a Guest on the Crew, I'm going with HK-47 to score 51.50%. I would pick a smaller percentage for HK but I think if this match were insanely close, L-block fans would rally it to victory, via legitimate or illegitimate means. So if HK-47 is gonna win this, he'll have to do it decisively. |
the CTDS boost is gone. No, red sox! Don't give up hope! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
I'm
beginning to think Crono and Frog got their CTDS boosts on hype in
2008. CT looked shockingly awful in 2007. I really cannot understand
why a game like CTDS wouldn't cause a boost, so I'll go with that for
now- that it occurred as such boosts often do before then game came
out, on hype. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
I didn't realize there even WAS any hype for CTDS before it came out. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
It beat Crisis Core in the GOTY, and it scored higher on Brawl than Dissidia scored on MW2. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
That's because it's Chrono Trigger! If you think all the people who voted for that actually played the DS version, you're crazy! Not to mention a large chunk of the people who did play DS almost assuredly had already played CT before. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
But but.....Crisis Core is Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
And now, for my final words: L-Block will pound this pathetic loser! Luster Soldier is owning faces --- xyzzy |
Aww
yeah, I have the highest L-Block prediction. Time to hope it could
possibly come true. It's doable based on past matches, and yet I'm also
unsure of how unknown factors like bracket voting will come into play.
It does help L-Block that the match is at night. Because looking at
HK's trends, he was slightly below average at night, with the ASV being
his worst time period. HK dropped almost 1% during the ASV in his 2007
round 1 match and since this match is on a weekend, we'll be seeing the
ASV concentrated in the morning. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Welp, pretty decent showing from Bowser here, but with Frog getting to retain a little self-respect as well. I agree with some of the comments saying that if Big Papa Koopa struggled to break 60 he'd be in trouble against Sora, but since it was never in question I'm announcing that the Upset Wagon is all gassed up and ready for a long road trip. Shame that despite not having fallen off the face of the Earth like Magus, Frog wasn't put in a position to entertain us like usual, but ah well, always next year. And that's about all there is to say- let's move on to a much more intriguing matchup. Now, plenty of ink has been spilled over how much I "hate joke characters," but in reality that's only a half truth. ...alright, so more like a 99% truth. But yes, one of the main reasons I was upset about 2008 being another 4way was how excited I'd been to see L-Block come in hot off his big win, all hyped to death, backed by 90% of the casuals, then laugh until my stomach hurt when he bombed out to a midcarder in the opening round. Two years later and we finally get our chance... but unfortunately HK-47 is no mid-carder, and with the way our other jokes haven't crashed and burned so far, I've been given no choice but to back off on the bold upset I called for in my bracket. Dang! Even so, I AM sticking with the idea of a major L-Block underperformance. You see, the opposition our previous jokes have faced had something in common: they were also jokes themselves, plus neither of them had any fanbase to speak of. That's not the case today, as a fanbase is something HK-47 has in spades; this site LOVES Star Wars (and KotOR in particular)! Let me count the ways: * KotOR scored 25% against fairly respectable competition in R1 (2009) * 49% of the site watches Star Wars: A New Hope more than once every year (2007) * Lego Star Wars topped CoD3 for Multiplatform GotY (2006) * Star Wars: Battlefront 2 won Multiplatform GotY (2005, admittedly a horrible year!) * 67% of the site went to see Revenge of the Sith on opening week (2005) * KotOR put up 40% on Vice City (2004) ** (remember this was during GTA's prime- it went on to score 46% on Melee) * KotOR scored 25% in the Final GotY poll (2003) As you see, the series has 1/4 of the site backing it pretty consistently, so anything over 75% from L-Block would shock me. From there, if HK can drill into some of those untapped Star Wars reserves and combine it with a bit of the Block anti-voting we saw in '08... well I don't know about actually WINNING, but I could still see him put up a pretty decent fight. I also think people are underestimating how much Portal and the Valve fanbase means to GlaDOS and the Cube. People love that game/developer, while Tetris is exactly the opposite: universally played, but only universally liked in a lukewarm kind of way. Which means the Block has excellent potential, but now that the humor is played out people will hop off the bus as soon as a likable alternative comes along. HK's probably not likable enough to get the job done, but boy would I ever love to see him keep it in the 50s. Come on Star Wars, bail me out! Ngamer Says: L-Block > HK-47, 59.99% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
L picks are high today. that's a lot of faith in a tetris piece that lost to Kirby and Kratos. --- xyzzy |
I've got the Block with about 62% myself. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
*Tetris piece that beat Ryu. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
With The Dog in the match! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
I object to Luster's writeup because he called GlaDOS an "it". --- Not cool brah. |
L picks are high today. :) --- xyzzy |
whoa, the board anti-voted L! man I miss it when he came out with 70% against three people instead of HK-47 --- xyzzy |
Wait
wtf.. did I not sign up for L block/HK, Moltar? I couldn't find the
topic but I thought I did. Did Luster grab it ahead of me and I missed
it? Oh well, HK is getting killed anyway, lol. Better that you didn't
use mine. --- CBVIII: 25/27 - 25 pts - Losses: Ocelot, Liquid Day Pick: Bowser Night Pick: L-Block |
Block's doing about what Kratos would be here. if he doesn't die off, we could have a nice r3 match. Boss is screwed. --- xyzzy |
Never expected The Boss to have much of a chance against the Cube. I didn't think it would be fodder. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Are we allowed to push Cubev > Weegee yet? --- 'Cos I wanna. |
You can push it if you want, but only if you feel like pushing alone! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
I think Cube could do pretty well in that match. Like......45%. Winning is probably too much of a stretch though. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
yeah,
that seems like a fair match to debate if you're looking for a crazy
upset. it's a better upset pick than some. Cube's got both joke votes
and Portal fan votes, which is more than you can say about the Block,
really. that said, Luigi's gotta be a huge fave there. --- xyzzy |
From: DaruniaTheGoron | #382 My records show Luster has that match and you had Chief/Spy --- Moltar Status: Bracket: L-Block > HK-47 (24/28) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kefka 60.57% 28769 Arthas Menethil 39.43% 18726 TOTAL VOTES 47495 Bowser 63.22% 44449 Frog 36.78% 25861 TOTAL VOTES 70310 Crew Predictions - 23/28 What Happened: One unexpected result. One expected result. Why it Happened: Well, Kefka either boosted for some reason (Dissidia, picture) or Arthas sucks in this format. As for Bowser and Frog, that was pretty much in line with expectations. What will Happen: Kefka may impress against Bowser...or fail miserably. Crew Prediction Challenge - Lucky Lopen Moltar - 24 Kleenex - 24 Lopen - 24 Tran - 23 Red Sox - 23 Ngamer - 22 Guest - 20 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for Kefka. Moltar gets the point for Bowser Moltar - 6.5 Lopen - 5 Tran - 4 Guest - 3 (Bio: 1, CM: 1, Marsman: 1) Kleenex - 3 Ngamer - 3 Red Sox - 2.5 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: L-Block > HK-47 (24/28) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I object to Luster's writeup because he called GlaDOS an "it". That was by accident, because I also used "her" in the same sentence that I used "it". Read more carefully. Anyways, looks like I was wrong about L-Block breaking 70%. L-Block probably seems a little bit weaker this year than last year, but is still a solid midcarder though. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
From: Master Moltar | #389 *smacks forehead* Yeah, you're completely right. My bad. I think I may have ORIGINALLY signed up for this match, then saw that Luster took it already, so I deleted my post and then picked MC/Spy but then it just sort of slipped my mind that that whole thing happened. --- CBVIII: 26/28 - 26 pts - Losses: Ocelot, Liquid Night Pick: L-Block Day Pick: Isaac |
Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 30 – (6) Isaac vs. (11) Professor Layton Moltar’s Analysis Isaac I know longer feel the urge to type Issac anymore! Layton Will shortly be returning to his Curious Village. Isaac winning a match…huh, well isn’t that something. Granted, he almost beat Lucario last year (both got killed by Altair fyi (and he got killed by Link/Zack fyi)), but still, you’ve gotta be pretty damn low on the totem pole to lose to lose to Isaac. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is my cue to introduce Layton. In 2007 he failed to get 10% on Chief/Kain/Raiden (man even I forgot he was in this Contest). In the game’s most recent showing, it placed second to last in the Best DS game poll, so I’m not expecting a boost for him (or one big enough to put him over Isaac) tl;dr = Isaac winz (parenthesis) Moltar’s Bracket: Isaac > Layton Moltar’s Prediction: Isaac: 65% - Layton: 35% Lopen’s Analysis Hey professor the block puzzle was about 12 hours ago. Here's a real head scratcher, prof: "Which of these two dudes couldn't break 10% last year and which tried pretty valiantly to get second in place of Lucario?" Lopen's prediction: Isaac with 70.12% Transience’s Analysis Man, I don't even know what to say about this match. Layton is new and exciting while Isaac has shown to be the stronger character, nearly beating Lucario and proving he isn't completely crap. Layton didn't do completely awful but he was still pretty bad. Ultimately, this is an RPG site and not a puzzle site so I'll side with the lame Golden Sun guy over the awesome Professor Layton. I can't help but feel that it's a stupid pick though. transience's prediction: Isaac with 59.12% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantasical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Isaac > Layton, 60.23% Kleenex’s Analysis Remember when I said neither Laharl not Neku deserved to make it to the second round of a contest? Well, the same holds true here. Now, I like both these guys, but both of them kinda suck contest-wise. Layton got something like tripled by Raiden and Kain Highwind last year. His game didn't do well at all in the GotY polls this year. Isaac hasn't had a real game in almost 7 years, and yet still maintains some iota of strength, going even with Lucario last year (did I really just say that? some stength because he went even with Lucario? augh). I don't see how Layton has much of a chance here. Critical thinking may be the key to success, but not in GameFAQs contests. Bracket: Isaac Favorites: Professor Layton Prediction: Isaac with 62.88% Red Sox’s Analysis Here we have a boring match between 2 weak Nintendo characters. Layton is certainly fodder, while Isaac is probably high fodder. Isaac narrowly lost to Lucario last year, while Layton was tripled by Raiden. Isaac has avoided a doubling from Pikachu before and put up 25% on Samus way back in 2003. That probably isn’t relevant anymore and he’s likely much weaker now, but even Lucario level strength is easily enough to crush Layton. Prediction: Isaac with 71% Upset Potential: 2% Upper Bound: Isaac with 78% Lower Bound: Isaac with 62% Guest’s Analysis - Biolizard28 Ugh, this sucks. I get stuck doing this garbage match while that trash gets to do THE one write up I wanted in this thing. I swear, when I get my hands on him… Oh, uh, you’re here? You didn’t hear any of that. Alright! |
This
is pretty much the only fodder vs. fodder match where the winner is
already set in stone. (Why, no, GlaDOS vs Fawful doesn’t count) Though
4-way performances pretty much mean nothing to me, Isaac breaking even
with Lucario is far more impressive than Layton failing to even get 10%
of the vote in a match where he had nothing holding him back… maybe. Honestly, though, I really don’t get it. Layton may be weak as hell in every poll we’ve seen him in (Counting games and such), I’d be willing to bet that more people know about his series than Golden Sun. They’re both B-List Nintendo franchises, I figure they’d sell about the same, nobody on this site talks about them (Save for the loonies who were trying to push for Isaac in Brawl, only to get kicked in the pants), etc. This match should be close, but for whatever reason, Isaac went out and proved that he’s freaking terrible, but not as bad as Layton. My Pick: Isaac My Favorite: Layton Predix: Isaac with 73% Crew Consensus: Isaac will rise like the sun into Round 2 |
Dammit Isaac quit dropping --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Drop, Isaac, drop! My Oracle needs to save some dignity! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 31 – (7) Charizard vs. (10) Duke Nukem Moltar’s Analysis Charizard Just what we all needed, another Pokemon! Duke Ass and bubblegum. All he needs. This is the most interesting match in the division. I think Charizard has this no problem, but if I learned anything from the 2007 and 2008 contests, it’s to not count out The Duke. In 2007, Duke took first in a match many though Gordon and Ike would take. Yeah, he went on to embarrass himself next round, but The Duke’s journey wasn’t done there. He was only biding his time. In 2008, Duke once again placed in the top two in a match many thought Kefka or Niko would take. He then went on to win his Round 2 match where Altair was the favorite over him. Then, he bowed out to Link and Zack. Basically, Duke’s got some strength. It may not be much, but he’s not a total pushover. Unfortunately for him, this hurdle may be a bit too big. Here, we’ve got one of the main faces of the Pokemon franchise, Charizard. We saw “Pokemon Trainer” Red in action, and while beating Ocelot is decent, I expect Charizard to be better than that. I mean, if that little rat can be so strong, I would expect the far cooler and more likable Charizard to be at least as strong, if not stronger than that. Charizard may not be “the face of the franchise”, but he is definitely the most popular starter among R/B/Y and even today, he’s probably still the favorite. He should have some very solid strength, whereas I wouldn’t say Duke is that far away from the fodder line. Duke will probably keep this respectable since it’s a night match. And that picture…eh, I’m still feeling confident with Char. Moltar’s Bracket: Charizard > Duke Moltar’s Prediction: Charizard: 58% - Duke: 42% Lopen’s Analysis Charizard has a wide range. Things like Jigglypuff and Nidoran F and Lucario tell us that Pokemon != Instant Win. Charizard probably does better than those... but honestly I wouldn't have expected Jigglypuff to do bad either. And with Jigglypuff we know that even the so called fan favorites (it totally is a fan favorite!) can get their asses handed to them. So I'm gambling that he falls on the weak end. Being a dragon can only get you so far, especially when you're up against a badass like Duke Nukem. Meanwhile Duke Nukem... balls of steel and not to be underestimated. Now I'm thinking that Pokefreakz saw this match and thought "Balls of Steel? Steel type. Super effective." Well the Duke's balls can weather any fire based attack from that weak dragon, believe you me. Next match. Truly, he is the symbol of America, and the match pic (which has made me all the more confident of this pick working out) makes that very clear. Defeat the Japanese mind control machine, in AMERICA. Lopen's prediction: Duke Nukem with 55.74% Hail to the King, baby. Transience’s Analysis Apparently Duke Nukem has some god tier picture and is now going to curbstomp Charizard because of this. What? Don't get me wrong, I'm down with picking Duke Nukem over Charizard. I advocated this for a while because I'm just not sold on the 'zard. But Duke Nukem always looks awesome. That's his appeal, his entire appeal. He's over the top, ridiculous and with a gun. Like Arthas, I've always been skeptical of the Duke in fourways. He's looked decent the last couple of years, but before 2007 we never thought about Duke at all really. He's been blessed with the right matchups - pre-Brawl Ike, Lucario and Marth together, lettuce kefka, etc. Duke's best win was over Altair. I don't really know what to make of him. |
Meanwhile,
we have Charizard. Not a classic Smash character or a guy that has real
plot relevance, but an awesome starter in the old days. I don't think
this guy can compete with Mewtwo. He'll certainly get the Pokemon fan
vote, but I don't know how deep that runs. I see Mewtwo and Pikachu as
guys that anyone can vote for, but only people who really like the
games are going to vote for Charizard. Fortunately, RBY looks to be a
top 5 game on this site so he should have plenty to be able to deal
with Duke Nukem. I don't think Charizard is a universal choice for starter like other people do, so I don't know if he reaches ALL of the RBY fans like other RPG mains would, but he should hit enough to beat what is essentially a joke character in Duke Nukem. transience's predix: Charizard with 61.03% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Charizard > The Duke, 58.89% Kleenex’s Analysis Oh god, here we go. I'm not drinkin' the Charizard kool-aid until it gets shoved down my throat, so he better put up or shut up here. That being said, Duke Nukem isn't exactly the toughest opponent (that'll be next round). Red didn't exactly inspire confidence, but the Pokemon themselves should be a good deal stronger than that dude. Duke always seems to rise to the occasion, so he might actually do fairly well here. Boy, wouldn't that be embarrassing. I'm not normally one to gloat about correct predictions in the character battles of all things, but if Charizard finds a way to lose this to Duke, I'm gonna laugh pretty hard. He's still going to need to win by a pretty large margin to convince me that he's got a shot at Kratos next round, but hey, stranger things have happened. Bracket: Charizard Favorites: Charizard (Duke sux) Prediction: Charizard with 62.05% Red Sox’s Analysis Following impressive performances by Pikachu and Pokemon RBY, Charizard won the Nomination Rally Tournament on Board 8, and earned enough nominations to make his first contest. I took the Charizard > Kratos upset, but never felt great about it, and don’t feel good about it now. But before he can face Kratos next round, Charizard must defeat Duke first, and that may not be all that easy. Duke faced Kefka, Altair, and Zack last year. All 3 of them have impressed this year, which says good things about Duke. Duke got 39.5% on Zack, who’s probably around Zelda level or a bit higher. Zack getting 30% on Link 3 times last year said this, and his victory over Yuna confirmed it- Crono/Zack would probably be around a 55/45 win for Crono. In comparison, Pikachu got 42% on Crono in round 4 and 46% in round 3, the match where he slew L-Block and smote him upon the towers of Thangorodrim. The 42% is probably more accurate for that reason, and nonetheless we see that Pikachu would probably win pretty easily over Duke, getting high 50s. The question then becomes: Is Charizard as strong as Pikachu? My best guess is that he isn’t quite as strong as Pikachu, but is only a little below him. If Charizard is weaker than Mewtwo, he may be in trouble Duke. Even if he were at Mewtwo level, he may still not be out of the woods, as Duke has an awesome picture with the US flag plus a night match. I think Charizard will be a bit stronger than Mewtwo though, and yet I respect the picture advantage Duke may have here, so I’m predicting Charizard to win a fairly close one. Prediction: Charizard with 51.00% Upset Potential: 35% Upper Bound: Charizard with 59.00% Lower Bound: Duke with 55% |
Guest’s Analysis - Kanzaris Kelshen So finally, we come to another hotly debated match, though the debates have almost completely died down after Pokémon's representatives have come out and showed their strength. On one side, we've got a fairly consistent low-midcarder in Duke, who has a good night vote and gets to avoid his terrible day vote for the most par today. On the other corner of the ring, we have Charizard, a new character who has been pushed by the board extremely heavily (he won the NRT in an impressive fashion, winning all or almost all of his matches and quite handily at that) after RBY's performance in the Games contest. There's been a lot of speculation about his strength, as his range could be as low as just a little above Red to as high as Pikachu or better. Arguments about his recognizability, his very appealing character design and more have been slung. With Pokémon having validated itself in its two matches, things look bad for Duke. So the question is, what are Mr. Nukem's chances at pulling the upset? The answer? Not too good. With Red as a floor (who's at least as good as Ocelot), Duke doesn't have a lot of ground on his opponent. Further, most reasonable analysis' project Charizard to be at Mewtwo's level or slightly higher, and that is good enough to defeat Duke in a relatively close, but not too close match. Mr. All Outta Gum's supporters will have to pray for a massive flop from Charizard for Duke to win, and relying on your opponent's weakness instead of your own strength is never a good sign. Thus, the real question here is probably not *if* Charizard will win, but by how much. If he flirts with the doubling, it'll be up to Kratos to demolish Tails and prove he's still the favorite to reach the divisional finals for a hype-boosted match with Sora. If he comes close to the tripling, Sora should thank his lucky stars for giving him his ASV during the divisional finals, because he'll need it to defeat the new strongest Pokémon and easily the most powerful newcomer in a long time. Until the firebreathing poster boy for RBY proves his worth, however, let's stick to more reasonable expectations: Kan's bracket: Charizard Kan's Vote: Duke Kan's Prediction: Charizard with 59.08% Crew Consensus: Duke has a lone supporter, but everyone else is going with Charizard. |
Stand strong against these anti-Americans, Lopen! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
