GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
Bowser needs Inside Story sprites. http://i.ytimg.com/vi/7uOwA_Uy7kw/0.jpg Something like that is pretty good as far as sprites for him go. --- "Eet's game time..." |
Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 27 – (5) Kefka vs. (12) Arthas Menethil Moltar’s Analysis Kefka I think people nominate the guy just to see him fail. Arthas Someone who can actually win a debatable match here. This would have been a good trap match a few years ago when it wasn’t common knowledge that Kefka sucks. Today, no one is going to fall for-. “Hey, it’s Kefka! He’s got a high seed and his opponent is some Blizzard character. He’s going to win!” Hey everyone, it’s Billy the Casual Bracketmaker! So, you think Kefka will win? “Yep! He’s from FF6, one of the strongest Final Fantasy games!” Well…that doesn’t necessarily translate into strength, Billy. Kefka’s shown himself to be pretty weak through all his losses over the years, especially to characters that aren’t even all that strong like Marth and Duke. “Well…yeah…but he can at least beat Arthas! He doesn’t look that strong either!” He looks to be a solid midcarder actually. He beat Diablo straight up and also beat Ike (okay Pikachu was there but hey). I wouldn’t take Kefka over those two, especially with Old Square looking weaker by the day. I mean, Ike didn’t look too hot in his match, but still, Prinny was an unknown. Then again, Thrall looked good against Link so that negates Ike’s suck! “So…you’re saying Arthas will beat Kefka?” Yep! Kefka will lose here. In 2008, I didn’t pick Kefka and it paid off…okay not really since I picked GTA instead ‘whoops’. But still, the point here is that this match isn’t even debatable. Arthas, from what we’ve seen, is a solid performer. Meanwhile, Kefka loses pretty much everything, and has lost to opponents that I would take Arthas to beat! “Alright! You’ve helped me out once again! Thanks, Moltar, and now I know!” And knowing is only half the battle. Moltar’s Bracket: Arthas > Kefka Moltar’s Prediction: Kefka: 40% - Arthas: 60% Lopen’s Analysis Now, I know I doubted 4 way stats for Zack and it totally backfired. Well, I'm presenting the same thing again. If it doesn't work this time, I'll probably drop the idea. But I see Arthas, and I see the perfect storm for looking too good in 4 way matches. This man's flagship game has like 15% playership on GameFAQs. Worse than Crisis Core for sure. Now, there is Warcraft 3, and I do admit that that's an underrated portion of Arthas's strength, but I don't think it's enough. Further you look at how Ike did against the Prinny, and you can't help but doubt if this guy's actually 4REAL. I mean Ike with Pikachu in the poll almost beat this guy. Kefka always chokes, but someday just like GFNW, you're gonna come to that point where Kefka can't possibly choke. I think Arthas is that point. Night match favors both, but I think it favors Kefka even more. Narrow victory for Kefka, just to spite all of ya now that you've finally given up on him. Lopen's prediction: Kefka with 50.66% Transience’s Analysis Fact: Kefka starts out a match really strong and dies quickly thereafter. Fact: Kefka has a very, very strong night vote. Fact: This is a short match that is taking place during Kefka's best hours. This match is kind of tailor-made for Kefka. The only way it would be better is if Arthas was a day vote kind of guy. As it is, Arthas is actually just as good with the night vote as Kefka is, and probably stronger to boot. He certainly has looked stronger over the last couple of years, but that's in fourways. Arthas strikes me as the kind of guy that would thrive in fourways given the nature of Warcraft's fanbase. They're really insular and loyal, voting for their guys over anything. That doesn't always translate to a 1v1 match. |
What
I'm trying to say here is that Kefka could very well win this match but
that I will never pick him if I don't have to. Kefka has depressed the
hell out of me too many times to back him without a reallllly good
reason, and I don't have one here. If he wins, then good for him. transience's prediction: Arthas with 55.11% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Arthas > Kefka, 52.61% Kleenex’s Analysis Why does Kefka have a 5th seed? Is everyone in on the joke and just like seeing him fail year after year? I'm going to go with yes, because there's no other reason to want this guy in the contest anymore. Last year Kefka decided he was going to job to 3 different characters. IN previous years he's lost to people he had no business losing to, and got scared by Mithos. I mean, really? At least Arthas looked pretty good last year, he's probably the strongest Blizzard character, and Thrall's performance on Link earlier this contest, so Arthas should put this one away comfortably. In fact, I'm willing to bet Kefka has one of his most embarassing performances ever tonight. Bracket: Arthas Favorites: Arthas Prediction: Arthas with 63.28% Red Sox’s Analysis Kefka, the grand master of choking in contests, returns once again, and this time he faces Arthas, from the Warcraft series. A sizable portion of Board 8 took Kefka this year, as he once again dangled a seemingly winnable match in front of us. As the match has approached, however, his prospects have looked increasingly bleak. Alucard crushed Magus, beating him by about the same margin as he beat Arthas last year- a very good sign for Arthas. Magus has always been much stronger than Kefka- before the freefall started, Magus beat Ganondorf in a close match while Kefka beat Pac-Man in a close match. He might have fallen a bit harder than Kefka over the years because he started off higher, but Magus/Kefka would not have been debatable before the contest, rendering Alucard's performance on Magus a very encouraging sign for Arthas. Further, Arthas beat Diablo in 2007, and Diablo beat Kefka with 54% back in 2005. Kefka's fallen quite some way since then, and it would not be surprising to see Diablo- and therefore Arthas- win with 60% now. Thrall did well against Link, breaking 20%, and Arthas is probably a good deal stronger than Thrall, whose match against Link suggests could have a close match with Kefka now. Ike did disappoint in his match with Prinny, which reflects badly on Arthas, but then, Prinny is an unknown. Ike got 62.5% on Prinny, and was probably a little above Arthas last year since he got quite close to him with Pikachu holding him down. Is Kefka really that much stronger than Prinny? He got beaten 58-42 by Marth, who's probably weaker than Ike by a fair bit- so Kefka might not even beat Prinny. Laharl’s performance today is making Ike’s performance on Prinny look more respectable, also. Kefka does have a potential Dissidia boost, and while it should exist, it probably will be small, as Kefka is once again part of an ensemble cast, and the game was not that big. Lastly, this is a night match, which should help Kefka. Arthas is a night character too, so it shouldn't be too extreme a shift, but it should help Kefka a bit. Nonetheless, I am giving Arthas a very high prediction tonight. Prediction: Arthas with 61.00% Upset Potential: 5% Upper Bound: Arthas with 66.00% Lower Bound: Arthas with 54.00% |
Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89 As much as I wanted to stick with my unlikely bracket upset here, more to make Justin_Crossing cry than in defence of my contest entry admittedly, my picks in debateable matches haven’t really been panning out all that well so far. Shadow, Liquid, Magus & co. have all been on the end of embarrassing beatings, not to mention the Nathan Drake’s and Neku’s of the world who just haven’t quite lived up to expectations. It seemed like Kefka would have all the necessary factors in his favour to take a close-ish match; it’s at night, he’s had Dissidia recently, Arthas isn’t a paragon of strength either; but look where concerted risks have gotten me. Time to huddle in with plain old common sense it seems. Direct matches show why Arthas is the favourite. Kefka lost to Diablo in the villains contest by a comfortable margin. Two years later, Diablo’s fellow Blizzard avatar would then easily triumph over the Lord of Darkness, in what was admittedly 3rd place beating 4th. That’s fairly damning. In the contest the year after, whilst Arthas was clinging onto Pikachu’s coat-tails to get into Round 2, Kefka was once again underwhelming. There have been surprises so far this contest, but no genuinely shocking results, and I don’t think it’s about to start now, although Kefka could still do well in defeat. The aforementioned factors still remain, and that should tighten the winning margin, and so the clown’s percentage is probably rather generous here. Call it a moral victory! Arthas – 52.3% Kefka – 47.7% Crew Consensus: Arthas is the big favorite here. suck it kefka |
whoa, high picks for Arthas. I thought I was going high. --- xyzzy |
Got Arthas pegged at 56%. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
People kept beating me out on the low end or high end so I had to go big tonight ! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Man,
I'd be so stoked if Arthas was able to get over 60% here. Don't see it
happening though.. maybe if it was a full 24 hour match since Kefka
should be worse during the day then Arthas. --- http://i50.tinypic.com/2cmp311.gif Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Yes, the return of Billy the Casual Bracketmaker, my favorite Analysis Crew recurring character! Also, tranny has the exact same prediction as my Oracle for this match! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
come onnnnnn Lopen --- http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png |
Billy isn't very smart but he tries so hard. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
As long as I'm there to guide Billy along, he'll be alright --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Sora > Midna (22/24) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
What would billy have master chief get on mega man % wise --- http://i50.tinypic.com/2cmp311.gif Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
All alone baby Lopen upset special time. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
yesssss Arthas owned --- xyzzy |
http://a3.twimg.com/profile_images/502993547/Kefka_-_Laugh_bigger.gif Nothing can beat the sound of the crew dying in unison Except for me --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
let's see if Kefka can blow this! I will be amazed if he can. but if anyone can it's Kefka --- xyzzy |
Uhhhhh... Well at least if Arthas pulls it back I probably get the point >_< DAMMIT I could've made a hero pick. --- "Eet's game time..." |
damn it crew --- Time to wander around Aimlessly |
Billy is smarter than us all --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
haha whoops --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
dammit Billy was right --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Arthas > Kefka (23/26) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Shut up dammit LOPEN was smarter not Billy *kicks Billy --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
backing out of an upset pick is tha worst but hey, you can have everyone laugh at you with us! --- xyzzy |
My god Arthas, way to suck beyond belief. --- "Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Looks like this Laharl/Neku disaster is going to finish up at 54k votes. The previous low for voter interest in a Day matchup: 59k for GlaDOS/Fawful. And every single other poll has been well over the 65k mark! If only I'd been as right about the winner as I was about how little anyone cared about who the winner would be. Speaking of which, I can't get myself to care enough about missing yesterday's result by 6% to comment on it, so let's just do our best to forget the last 12 hours ever happened and move right along to... One of the better setups of the whole first round! Now, tradition dictates that Kefka gets vastly overseeded to earn himself a beatable opponent, followed by Board 8 putting way too much faith in him to win his R1 matchup, followed by everyone cursing themselves as fools as soon as the match pic is revealed, followed by yet another (hilarious) heart-breaking/bracket-burning Kefka flop. Unfortunately, the trend has already been bucked this season: 64% of the board is excepting Kefka's opponent to take this poll. What happened here?! Well, Diablo > Kefka w/ 54.09% happened (back in '05), a result which supposedly makes this decision cut and dried. And yet, somehow I don't trust it... Arthas seems like a guy who's built for the 4ways, where his fan favorite status works overtime and he can't feel any backlash for his association with WoW. When it comes to a pure 1v1, I think I'd still back Diablo to put up better numbers, at least indirectly. I'm also really digging this one as a Night Match; I forget how Europe reacts to FF6, but at least Kefka will get to start out with that old school backing that helps so many SNESers and avoid the terrible ASV where guys like Marcus have eaten him alive. He also has the advantage of scoring almost his first-ever non Lettuce match pic (although truth be told he still doesn't look all that great, whereas Arthas looks as though he exudes cool... literally!). And if you think about it, Kefka always burns our brackets. Now that we've turned our backs on him, won't he just flip the tables and burn us in the other direction? Call me crazy but I'm not ruling it out. Don't have the guts to pick it myself though! Let's stick with Ngamer Says: Arthas > Kefka, 52.61% --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
In better news, transience with the perfect prediction last match. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
yep, Arthas is a fourway bust confirmed. --- xyzzy |
Man I wish I'd gone higher Y'all scared me and I decided I wanted to save face for once. Grr. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Moltar, you LIED to Billy! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
'Fourway bust' my ass. Kefka couldn't double freaking Mithos. This result isn't something you explain. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
I don't know. I think if you assume Arthas's votes almost entirely come from WoW fans you explain this bust pretty well. That bein said I'm thinkin Kefka is on some roids today. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I guess you could say this performance is... Kefkaesque --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
This is....... ............... --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
That being said even in my pick where I wasn't intimidated I would've not gone higher than 55% Jeez Kefka and he's not dropping. Amazing. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Master Moltar | #252 hi I'm billy do you have more advice for me Moltar-kun --- Porre either became an aristocratic mercantile state or a placid direct democracy depending on if the lady who ran an inn was able to serve people beef jerky. |
From: Lopen | #283 How in the world did Warcraft beat GTA? --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
I
thought I had steeled my face against shock before clicking in my vote
(I figured there was a decent chance Kefka could bracket/board/old
school vote to an early 52% before giving it all back), but my jaw still bounced off the desk when I saw that 63%. What the heck, guys? I mean I'm the guy who just got done saying how he'd take Diablo over Arthas 1v1, and even I have no idea what's going on here. --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
my brain --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Arthas's GAME FUEL give him an anti-boost. LOL, and Master Chief's GAME FUEL turned him into a monster in 2007. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
I call it DISSIDI-FEAR. Fear it. --- ~AK~ // Merc |
From: LeonhartFour | #288 I'm not saying Warcraft has no strength outside WoW, but Arthas probably gets little strength from there? I imagine he's Kerrigan level from that game and then he gets a bit more from the WoW base. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
ATTN: Leon I'm putting you in charge of these two cool new pages. http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Never_Miss_Club http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Winless_Characters --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Ooh, fun. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
I'll
say! For Winless I just included everyone who still hasn't had their
match this year, figuring it will be easier to delete them off in the
case of a win rather than having to make a new addition with every loss. --- You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
I'm
kind of happy to see this result despite being wrong about it. it's
about time either a.) Kefka came to play or b.) Arthas showed us what a
farce he is. on the surface, FF6 character vs. Warcraft character makes
sense that it would be a doubling. I am also much more interested in Arthas's r2 match. Bowser/Kefka could be interesting to see where Kefka lies. it's also one of the few halfway interesting VC matches we never got to see. --- xyzzy |
Sora 63.63% 32359 Midna 36.37% 18493 TOTAL VOTES 50852 Laharl 56.32% 31134 Neku Sakuraba 43.68% 24151 TOTAL VOTES 55285 Crew Predictions - 22/26 What Happened: Sora beats Midna with no problem. Laharl does the same to Neku. Why it Happened: Midna showed she was kinda legit last year with her performance on Cloud. That's why it's not surprising to see her put up 36% on Sora. As for Laharl...good for him. He finally won a match because Neku is even weaker than he is. What will Happen: Sora will beat down Laharl worse than Midna easy. Crew Prediction Challenge - Poor Moltar and Ngamer Moltar - 23 Kleenex - 23 Lopen - 22 Tran - 22 Red Sox - 22 Ngamer - 21 Guest - 19 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Marsman gets the point for Sora. Tran nails Laharl's percentage Moltar - 5.5 Lopen - 4 Tran - 4 Guest - 3 (Bio: 1, CM: 1, Marsman: 1) Kleenex - 3 Ngamer - 3 Red Sox - 2.5 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Arthas > Kefka (23/26) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
From: OrangeKidJosh | #287 When you win your prize money can I have some? --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Arthas > Kefka (23/26) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Shoot, Lopen's gonna be tied with us for first after today. Gross. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
