GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

transience | Posted 1/26/2010 1:51:04 PM | message detail | filter | #151
this is a pretty impressive percentage for Zack... I don't think Zelda got this vs. Yuna. that said, I don't think 2010 Yuna is close to 2006 Yuna.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 2:16:02 PM | message detail | filter | #152
It's hard to say how much of the female bracket is legit, though I think Yuna's performance on Zelda is legit. I don't know why Yuna would have dropped since then though.
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transience | Posted 1/26/2010 2:18:25 PM | message detail | filter | #153
I just look at the performances to tell me that. the only time Yuna looked that strong was 2006 and then never again.
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xyzzy
vcharon | Posted 1/26/2010 2:21:56 PM | message detail | filter | #154
A SFF obviously exists here. Hard to judge how good she is with this. I think she did well enough really, but apparently that isn't the consensus.
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 2:38:53 PM | message detail | filter | #155
Yuna's only had one contest since then, and she got stuck with Game Fuel Chief who came 2000 votes away from Snake.
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transients | Posted 1/26/2010 3:54:24 PM | message detail | filter | #156
fair enough, but I still don't think she was ever that strong again. She didn't exactly put up a good fight with that Chief, boost or not.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 1/26/2010 3:57:15 PM | message detail | filter | #157
Considering Chief looked better than lower tiered members of the NN that year I don't think you can really fault Yuna too much for that.

Still say that Yuna's 2k7 performance wasn't terrible.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 3:58:58 PM | message detail | filter | #158
I dunno. I don't think this performance disagrees too much with what we've seen from Yuna the past two contests. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Zack does against Mega Man.
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transients | Posted 1/26/2010 4:29:51 PM | message detail | filter | #159
yeah, agreed. if Zack breaks 45% then we'll know he's just legit. at the very least, he has to outdo Cid. what a bomb.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 1/26/2010 4:31:55 PM | message detail | filter | #160
Setting Yuna slightly below Tidus and comparing Cid to 2k4 Tidus doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that Zack will outdo Cid.

Potentially flawed way to look at it to be sure but I'm just sayin Zack getting lower than Cid isn't necessarily terrible for Yuna.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 4:38:09 PM | message detail | filter | #161
Zack doing worse than Cid would be awful for Yuna. It means she's way weaker than Tidus when she's looked like about his equal the last few years.
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"I can set you free, mate."
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/26/2010 4:39:39 PM | message detail | filter | #162
Zack doing worse than Cid would either mean that Zack are Yuna are very surprisingly weak or Megaman has boosted back up to 2004 levels and is going to give Mario a good fight.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 4:39:40 PM | message detail | filter | #163
Not to mention, it'd make her way weaker than Rikku.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 4:40:25 PM | message detail | filter | #164

From: red sox 777 | #162
Zack doing worse than Cid would either mean that Zack are Yuna are very surprisingly weak or Megaman has boosted back up to 2004 levels and is going to give Mario a good fight.


Yeah, but even at 2004 levels, you get Cid >= Tidus, which makes Yuna look bad.

Heck, that makes Zack look bad.
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Lopen | Posted 1/26/2010 4:42:20 PM | message detail | filter | #165
Well Cid did about 2-3% better on Mega Man anyway so Zack has some breathing room there.

Though truth be told I don't know how much better a 57-43 looks on the same opponent off hand. I'd assume it wouldn't be that much worse?

Also who knows about 2k4 Mega Man vs 2k10 Mega Man.
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ZFS | Posted 1/26/2010 4:59:58 PM | message detail | filter | #166
Zack should outdo Cid easily. Never believed that Cid was even close to his level, and after that bad show against Mega Man, there's not much reason to believe he is.

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 1/26/2010 6:52:33 PM | message detail | filter | #167
MOLTAAAAAAAARwhere are you
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 1/26/2010 7:58:34 PM | message detail | filter | #168

From: LeonhartFour | #136
Darn it, Guest! I won't stand for this!


Sorry Master Shredder, but weren't you backing Yuna? At least i got us a point in the Prediction Challenge.
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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/26/2010 9:28:38 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #169
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 23 – (7) Ryu Hayabusa vs. (10) Crash Bandicoot

Moltar’s Analysis

Ryu H.
The Ninja himself returns. This time, he’s far away from Snake!

Crash
Really?!

And back to crap matches. Only thing to watch for here is how well Ryu H. does. In 2008, he pulled the upset on Zero, but got shut down for the second year in a row by Snake. This year, he’s looking to upset Mr. Xbox himself, Master Chief (providing he doesn’t suck it up). A strong performance here should build up his credibility for the upset.

Moltar’s Bracket: Ryu H. > Crash

Moltar’s Prediction: Ryu H.: 70% - Crash: 30%



Lopen’s Analysis

Bandicoot is a washed up never was. Dude ain't got no chance to win or even look respectable against Da Zero Slayah. Only thing worth watching here is the combo count. Can Hayabusa rack up a 30000 vote combo? A 40000 vote combo?

What? Of course hits and votes are the same thing.

Lopen's prediction
Hayabusa with a 35000 vote combo (Aka 76.06%)



Transience’s Analysis

Ryu Hayabusa is one of our rising stars. He isn't at Dante or Kratos level, but he's really not that far behind. He's impressed the last two years before getting stuck with Solid Snake and bombing to all hell.

Crash Bandicoot is.. well, he's been better than expected the last two years, but he's still weak. I think Crash is moving to that stage where he's kind of nostalgic for a lot of people due to being an ex-mascot. That will win him some sympathy votes, but it won't be enough to topple a ninja.

transience's prediction: Ryu Hayabusa with 68.11%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Ryu H. > Crash, 69.76%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Time to play How Much Does Crash Suck.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3252

Well, not as much as Raz, at least. In any event, Hayabusa is waaaaaay out of Crash's league here, and this match is probably gonna be pretty ugly. Crash hasn't been relevant in years, and even when he was relevant no one cared about him!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=20

I mean, come on. Time for people to stop nominating this dude.


Bracket: Ryu Hayabusa
Favorites: Crash (what?)
Prediction: Ryu Hayabusa with 70.09%



Red Sox’s Analysis

This match is an easy blowout for Ryu, but the question is whether he’ll perform well enough to beat Master Chief last round. Hayabusa beat Zero last year, so I think he can. Zero may not be a near-elite anymore, as he was in 2003 and 2004 when he even finished above a Noble Niner in the x-stats, but he’s still a solid upper midcarder. Beating him is more impressive than anything Master Chief has ever done outside of that singular 2007 run, fueled by Halo 3 hype.

Meanwhile Crash is weak. Master Chief can’t blow anyone out due to antivotes, but he blew out Crash 70-30 back in 2004. In the more recent 4-way contests, Crash got 40% on Magus and 24% on Samus- but in both cases they probably underperformed due to being the obvious favorite for first place. Chief got 70.72% in 2004, so you could say that’s the mark to beat. I think Ryu probably needs more than that in reality to beat MC next round, because Crash should be weaker than in 2004, and MC may be a bit stronger, but Hayabusa is up to the task of getting more.

The 4-way stats don’t really support a blowout with 75% like I’m predicting, but I think Crash has become increasingly irrelevant and should be far below his 2004 levels now. I’m just feeling a landslide win here.

Prediction: Ryu Hayabusa with 75.00%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Ryu Hayabusa with 80.00%
Lower Bound: Ryu Hayabusa with 68.00%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/26/2010 9:29:03 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #170
Guest’s Analysis - Shoenin_Kakashi

ZackFAQS indeed,

Anyways, now in this nocturnal darkness of the night(or morning for you crazy lurches), we have Slayer of Zero(;_;) and Crash Bandicoot.

This seems pretty simple and shut, and Hayabusa got a Ninja Gaiden pic, so people recognize him(instead of that DoA pic that made him look face punch-able)Crash has, unfortunately seen far better days. Remember the Crash Bandicoot commercials? Yeah they were awesome. Crash contest wise: Not awesome. He hasn’t had a good or recognizable game in god knows when. Hayabusa has had ports that kicks peoples asses(and emasculating them), and been in games where people watch half naked girls kick each other’s asses. Clearly a buff.

Anyways, ROFLstomp. Ryu has no reason to go down much if at all, Crash has every reason to go down even more than before. I don’t think well be seeing a 80-20 thing here, but it’ll still be in the 70’s. Crash is weak, but I don’t think Ryu is strong enough.

Lord Hayabusa with 73.44%
Btw I think Ryu is a sexist <_<



Crew Consensus: Ryu uses his skills to easily get past Crash
Shredderhart4 | Posted 1/26/2010 9:44:42 PM | message detail | filter | #171

From: Chaotic Mind | #168
Sorry Master Shredder, but weren't you backing Yuna? At least i got us a point in the Prediction Challenge.


Yes, but I demand accuracy! Look at Shoe, he's got the stuff!
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transients | Posted 1/26/2010 9:51:50 PM | message detail | filter | #172
do I really have the lowest Hayabusa pick? what?

I guess I have more Crash respect than others.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 1/26/2010 10:17:26 PM | message detail | filter | #173
Wow my prediction is almost 3% lower than the lowest. Did you guys not see him get 24% on Samus, even if you adjust him via Nightmare in round 2 that's still 22%. If Hayabusa gets 70% that almost suggests him being just a step lower than the near elites.
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Character Battle VIII - 15/20 - Today's Winners: Mega Man and Yuna
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:18:23 PM | message detail | filter | #174
People are looking at Chief/Crash in 2004.

I agree that Crash looked better in 4-ways though, for whatever the reason.
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Lopen | Posted 1/26/2010 10:32:54 PM | message detail | filter | #175
4 way stats "not worth a dime"

*looks at today's match

NOT A DIME.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:37:11 PM | message detail | filter | #176
How 'bout a nickel?
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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/26/2010 10:52:15 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #177

From: charmander6000 | #173
Wow my prediction is almost 3% lower than the lowest. Did you guys not see him get 24% on Samus, even if you adjust him via Nightmare in round 2 that's still 22%. If Hayabusa gets 70% that almost suggests him being just a step lower than the near elites.


Not going to lie, I didn't even remember this happening until after I posted the write-ups.

My Oracle pick is a bit lower because of it
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu H. > Crash (20/22)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/26/2010 11:40:48 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #178
Crew Predictions - 18/22

What Happened: Mega Man kills Cid, Zack cleanly beats Yuna

Why it Happened: So it looks like not everything from FF7 is really strong! Cid definitely isn't on the same level as Vincent or Tifa or even Aerith. I guess it could also mean that Mega Man is stronger this year, but the former is more likely. Also, Zack is legit. Yuna managed to look good in defeat though.

What will Happen: MM/Zack should go how we thought MM/Cid would go.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Hmmm

Moltar - 20
Kleenex - 19
Lopen - 18
Ngamer - 18
Tran - 18
Red Sox - 18
Guest - 16



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Lopen gets the point for MM. Kleenex gets the point for Zack.

Moltar - 4.5
Lopen - 4
Kleenex - 3
Ngamer - 3
Red Sox - 2.5
Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1)
Tran - 2
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu H. > Crash (20/22)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/27/2010 12:01:05 AM | message detail | filter | #179
Crew stats startin' to look good.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/27/2010 9:23:34 AM | message detail | filter | #180
Without reviewing these "early" results...

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Seems like the general consensus has pretty much hit the nail on the head regarding yesterday's result. Yuna's still got some decent Tidus-level strength, but when it comes to Final Fantasy SFF you never bet against FF7 unless there was a sizable gap between the two characters to start (think Squall > Aerith). All of which I more or less expected, while at the same time hoping that '08 Zack was mostly smoke and mirrors. Well, turns out he wasn't! Mr. Fair seems to be legitimately in that Tifa range (I'm thinking a little back of her and with a small gap up to Vincent), and so I again agree with the consensus in that he'll have no trouble improving on Cid's showing against Mega Man next round, but that he likewise has no shot at actually turning that into an upset. Kind of nice when we can all agree like this.

I think we'd also all be in agreement that tonight's battle has "dud" written all over it. Seriously now, who keeps bringing 2002-era flops like Crash back into the bracket? At least Lara Croft still has TJF- what does this Bandicoot have going for him? Nostalgia for males born specifically in 1990, and no other years? That must be it. Anyways my point is that he REALLY need to go away, and I have faith in Ryu's ability to deliver a blowout of such humiliating proportions that Crash will be too embarrassed to ever show his face 'round these parts again.

If you think about it, Hayabusa's almost custom-built to deliver that kind of knock out punch. The guy always looks like a monster in R1 before running into someone who can sap his casual/badass appeal and going out with a whimper. Tonight he's sporting probably his coolest, most ninjafied match pic ever, which bodes especially well since Crash looks like total garbage as usual. Plus it's not as though Ryu had faded from the public eye- he keeps coming out with another new game every two months. Either that or he's releasing the SAME games, but with "Sigma" and "Black" and "Hyper Fighting Edition" tacked on the back. I guess to be fair, Crash has also been doing that since '99, but he's been using "Nitro" and "Tag Team" and "Bash" and "Boom Bang!", which isn't nearly as cool. Go get him Ryu!

Ngamer Says: Ryu H. > Crash, 69.76%

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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/27/2010 9:40:23 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #181
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 24 – (2) Master Chief vs. (15) Spy

Moltar’s Analysis

Chief
Oh Chief…you just can’t count on this guy for anything.

Spy
Should disguise himself as Link

Barring a massive choke or Steam rally, this match shouldn’t be any problem for Chief. Spy doesn’t look to be very strong, as he was a good distance behind Pika/Ike/Arthas in 2008. Chief didn’t look great himself, but I’ll take a close loss to Dante over whatever Spy has done. Can’t call Chief a lock here though because…nothing is sure when he’s around.

Also day match so GAME FUEL is in full effect.

Moltar’s Bracket: Chief > Spy

Moltar’s Prediction: Chief: 60% - Spy: 40%



Lopen’s Analysis

You'd think a spy would have the sense to know to attack Chief at night. Makes me think that either this spy is incompetent or that it was Master Chief who got the jump on him.

Now, as anyone who has played Stratego knows, getting the jump on the spy spells instant death for it. So Master Chief is gonna put up huge numbers here. Not cause spy is incompetent, no no, because Chief is gonna look like a NNer without any night vote to bring him down. MAKE YO TIME, MEGS.

Lopen's prediction:
Master Chief with 79.07%



Transience’s Analysis

Ahh, Master Chief. Who knows what version of you will show up?

My money is on the crappy one. We're back to 1v1, which means he'll probably do poorly. He's been on a clear downslope the last couple of years and I see no reason to expect anything else. Chief really isn't as strong as people seem to think he is, and 1v1 will probably make him look worse.

Spy should probably get a nice boost from the awesome Meet the Spy video that came out over the past year, but really, it's all about being Not Master Chief. I think Spy impresses here and all the Chief > Ryu pickers get a little scared after the bomb Chief lays here. He only got like 60% on Kain Highwind. I guess Cecil did well for himself this year against Knuckles, but... Kain Highwind! Kain Highwind!


oh and don't listen to Lopen when he picks Chief with like 117%

transience's prediction: Master Chief with 59.01%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Time for Chief to show us what he's learned the past two years. Hopefully the days of jobbing to the likes of Sub-Zero are behind us, but when you're talking about someone like Chief you can never be too sure. Luckily, Spy didn't exectly look like the paragon of strength in his one match last year, and I don't see any particular reason for that to change. Chief should be strong enough to put this guy away.

Still, in typical Chief fashion, I'm sure he'll put up some embarassing percentage and probably be the favorite to lose to Hayabusa next round. That's just how Chief rolls.


Bracket: Master Chief
Favorites: Master Chief
Prediction: Master Chief with 61.33%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/27/2010 9:40:37 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #182
Red Sox’s Analysis

Master Chief blasts apart a pathetically weak character like Spy, right? Not so fast. First off, Master Chief has a very hard time blowing people out, due to the anti-votes he gets. Second, Master Chief just isn’t that strong- he’s been the rough equal of people like Felix, Frog, Donkey Kong, and Sub-Zero- none stronger than a midcarder.

Third, Spy has a huge picture advantage today- it’s our most entertaining picture of the contest so far, and it shows Spy with a won fight. Fourth, Spy’s embarrassing first round defeat last year (36% on Arthas) can be blamed on Last Place Factor. Master Chief does have the day vote going for him, but other than that, everything is lined up for a large underperformance on his part.

Prediction: Master Chief with 62.00%
Upset Potential: 5%
Upper Bound: Master Chief with 72.00%
Lower Bound: Master Chief with 52.00%



Crew Consensus: Chief should have this match, but…you can never trust Chief.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 10:08:51 AM | message detail | filter | #183
i love you lopen
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/27/2010 10:31:49 AM | message detail | filter | #184
I had the highest pick other than Lopen?

And here I thought I was picking a really low number for Chief.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 10:32:59 AM | message detail | filter | #185

From: red sox 777 | #184
I had the highest pick other than Lopen?

And here I thought I was picking a really low number for Chief.


Apparently people here consider Arthas >> Master Chief.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 11:26:36 AM | message detail | filter | #186
No Guest? Unacceptable!
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transience | Posted 1/27/2010 12:50:14 PM | message detail | filter | #187
seriously, I went high on Hayabusa, what the hell was wrong with you guys

lol Lopen
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 2:06:14 PM | message detail | filter | #188
Man what is this.

*sulks
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/27/2010 2:07:00 PM | message detail | filter | #189
Looks like another victory for me !
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Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 2:08:24 PM | message detail | filter | #190
oh and don't listen to Lopen when he picks Chief with like 117%

Best ever.

MANNNN
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ZFS | Posted 1/27/2010 2:09:56 PM | message detail | filter | #191
http://i46.tinypic.com/10fv0x1.gif

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Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 2:13:29 PM | message detail | filter | #192
Haha. That gif is awesome

goddammit no wonder he's doing so bad "too drunk to finish the fight"
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TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 1/27/2010 2:42:37 PM | message detail | filter | #193
Yeah, there have been far too many with no guest... I suppose I ought to start preparing analyses just in case I need to step in, although it's too late to save Master Chief-Spy from being without a guest...
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/27/2010 3:13:47 PM | message detail | filter | #194
No Chief, stop going up you're going to let redsox win !!
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Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 3:15:13 PM | message detail | filter | #195
I've got a better chance than winning than you at this point Kleenex just give it up
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 3:35:21 PM | message detail | filter | #196
LOL Chief ASV
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transients | Posted 1/27/2010 3:45:09 PM | message detail | filter | #197
remember, folks, Chief will beat Hayabusa thanks to his beastly ASV!
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/27/2010 3:46:43 PM | message detail | filter | #198
No Chief, stop going down you're going to let Moltar win !!
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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/27/2010 8:05:43 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #199
I was going to put up new Guest sign-ups today

but I'm lazy

so I'll just say that they're going up tomorrow night
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu H. > Crash (20/22)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 9:32:12 PM | message detail | filter | #200
Can I go ahead and claim Tidus/Sub-Zero?

Pleeeeeeeeease?
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