GameFAQs Contests

Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/23/2010 9:30:24 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #051
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 17 – (1) Mario vs. (16) Falco Lombardi

Moltar’s Analysis

Mario
That ain’t Falco

Falco
No wombo combo here

Well this should be an 80-20 blowout for Mario. Based on the other matches, I would doubt Mario’s ability to hit 80% here, but he’s also going to SFF the hell out of Falco, so he SHOULD be able to get the quad.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mario > Falco

Moltar’s Prediction: Mario: 81% - Falco: 19%



Lopen’s Analysis

Oh up smash... he's no Falco. OHH OHHH OHHHHH.

...

Man, we've seen Mario kick the crap out of Nintendo dudes so many times, and Falco's arguably the weakest one we've seen this side of Olimar.

Maybe Mario's weak against snark or something I dunno. Really doubt it. Falco probably gets stomped so bad you've got an indentation of a bird on the bottom of Kuribo's shoe. Now this stuff is marketed as "HIP THREADZ."

Lopen's prediction:
Mario with 85.33%


Transience’s Analysis


A guy who is mostly liked for being a Smash Bros. character vs. the KING OF SFF? This is a match that nobody needs to see.

...I want to write something funny here but there's nothing funny to say about this match

transience's prediction: Mario with 82.95%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Mario > Falco, 80.07%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Taking a quick look down the list here, Division 3 should be a cakewalk except for Zack/Yuna, and it starts off here with a match that might very well end up being the blowout of the round (for real this time). Last year, Falco put up impressive numbers against Vincent in his first-round match before looking like garbage in the second round. Falco's probably good enough to beat a few characters in this bracket, but he didn't draw any character. He drew his worst possible opponent. Mario is [probably] going to ream Falco tonight. It'll [probably] get ugly, and Falco's [probably] never going to show his face in another contest after this.


Bracket: Mario
Favorites: Mario
Prediction: Mario with 82.36%



Red Sox’s Analysis

First, storytime.

Falco: Master, it looks like we’ve been scheduled to face each other in the first round of the tournament.

Mario: Good, my young padawan.

Falco: Good? But-

Mario: You have much to learn yet, my apprentice. Perhaps now is a good time to start. What do you know of the Dark Side of the Force?

Falco: The Dark Side? It’s evil and wrong and we must never fall into it. We must not let ourselves become attached to anything, and we must not fear losing anything. Fear leads to anger which leads to hate which leads to the Dark Side of the Force.

Mario: Yes, yes, Link has taught you well. But what do you know about what the Dark Side really is?

Falco: I…..don’t understand what you are saying, Master.

Mario: Why do you think the Jedi are so afraid of the Dark Side, my young apprentice?

Falco: Because…..

Mario pulls out a red lightsaber. Mario: Because the Dark Side is more powerful, of course! Now, we duel!

~~~

This is an SFF blowout match. The only interesting thing here is whether Mario can get the blowout of the contest. Based on the way he SFF’d Fox and Ness, Mario can probably break 80% here- if he does, it’ll be up to Cloud, Vincent, and Zelda to beat that mark.

Prediction: Mario with 81%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Mario with 86%
Lower Bound: Mario with 76%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/23/2010 9:30:37 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #052
Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

Well, it's now time to watch the first video game character I had ever heard of advance with ease! There's no doubt as to whether Mario wins here, but how does he do on the blue bird named after an Austrian composer? Believe it or not, both Mario and Falco share a common opponent:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mario_vs_Big_Boss_vs_Pac-Man_vs_Wander_2007
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Vincent_vs_Falco_vs_GlaDOS_vs_Wander_2008

It's 87% vs. about 70%, with there also being the problem of Falco collapsing in round 2 once, uh, wait, Scorpion and Gordon Freeman can't be such tough competition, right? So Falco and Scorpion were splitting votes with each other...unfortunately, Falco is getting SFFd here too, no doubt about it. Now, we saw that Meta Knight managed to avoid getting SFFd too badly by Luigi, possibly due to being a top-tier Brawl character and Luigi being anti-voted for being the obvious favorite. Falco would benefit from both as well, and he would only be knocked down a bit due to the fact that he is also a Miyamoto character, but I doubt anybody would care about THAT, right? I originally pegged Mario at 85%, and in 2005 that might've happened...but not now. Something more like 80% would make sense. Mario could even fail to break 80% all together, and I wouldn't be surprised.

Mario - 80%, Falco - 20%



Crew Consensus: It’s-a-me, Mario!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/23/2010 9:31:39 PM | message detail | filter | #053
ATTN: red sox

leave the stories to Moltar
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 9:32:54 PM | message detail | filter | #054
LMS made a writeup without a single reference to video game lists? AMAZING

so he SHOULD be able to get the quad.

argh
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/23/2010 9:33:54 PM | message detail | filter | #055
[quad]
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/23/2010 9:34:14 PM | message detail | filter | #056
Argh my quad.
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*tear*
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/23/2010 9:35:29 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #057
spoilers I am actually Kevin Na*tears quad*
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Liquid > Altair (14/15)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 9:36:49 PM | message detail | filter | #058
Falco: Hands off my quad!
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Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 1/23/2010 10:05:03 PM | message detail | filter | #059
Bold Predix: Falco gets at least 25%, possibly closer to 30%.
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by KrahenProphet.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=99
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/23/2010 10:07:53 PM | message detail | filter | #060
LMS seems much more reasonable this time around. I think he finally got the hint about the lists.
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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/24/2010 12:06:22 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #061
Altair................59.12% 44955
Liquid Snake...40.88% 31086
TOTAL VOTES..............76041

Crew Predictions - 12/16

What Happened: Altair stomps Liquid. Took the lead early and never looked back.

Why it Happened: Altair boosting thanks to AC2 is pretty likely. Throw in Liquid also not being as strong as 2008 suggested and you've got some kind of explanation for this.

What will Happen: Altair's good performance has now put him in a very good position to beat Vivi.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Ng and Kleenex are the smart ones today

Moltar - 14
Lopen - 13
Kleenex - 13
Ngamer - 13
Tran - 12
Red Sox - 12
Guest - 10



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Easy point for Kleenex

Ngamer - 3
Lopen - 3
Red Sox - 2
Moltar - 2
Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1)
Kleenex - 2
Tran - 1
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Liquid > Altair (14/15)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/24/2010 1:08:40 AM | message detail | filter | #062

From: transience | Posted: 1/23/2010 2:55:48 PM | #040
wow. yeah, Altair's got this in round 2.


Why?
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The wheel of fate is turning.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/24/2010 1:54:24 AM | message detail | filter | #063
Well, I have finally found this topic. Thank goodness!

For the record, I actually wrote my analysis before the match pic came up. I was also completely unaware of Mario/Fox 2007, but it's a good thing I wasn't!
transience | Posted 1/24/2010 3:11:45 AM | message detail | filter | #064
Why?

'cause Liquid Snake's not losing to Donkey Kong
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xyzzy
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/24/2010 4:10:34 AM | message detail | filter | #065
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

What was that thing I said a few days back, believe it was along the lines of "I've finally found something I love more than being right... it's everyone else being wrong!" Well shucks, that opinion won't be changing anytime soon! Now to be fair, I've got to tone down the gloating 25% for this one, considering how Kleenex drubbed me by 4% and Altair was backed by a respectable 37 in the Oracle (versus 76 who picked Liquid). And to be perfectly honest, despite spending two paragraphs extolling the virtues of Altair, I still have no idea where that 59% came from. Have match pic advantages become a bigger deal than in the past? Lightning and Rikku and Altair certainly looked good, but then again I thought Link and MMX had huge advantages as well and those didn't translate. Perhaps it's more a case of AC having replaced GTA and Halo and God of War as the site's #1 casual series... which might make sense if AC2 hasn't lost cleanly to Batman just two weeks ago! Yeah, I don't know what to say other than that I really REALLY regret chickening out 2 hours from lockdown and switching to Vivi > Altair.

Now then, tonight's battle is... whoa, incredibly uninteresting! I guess with so much Nintendo in the bracket inter-company matches become nearly impossible to avoid, but sloppy placement like this gives one the impression that SB didn't even try. (Probability of previous statement: 99%) So yeah, Falco is clearly outclassed and has a brutal beatdown in store, but the question is, will even a tripling be enough to keep people off poor Mario's back?

You see, the problem is that our plumber has a reputation to uphold, namely that he's The King of Nintendo SFF. But after watching heavy favorites like Link and Sonic and MMX underperform (sometimes drastically), it sure seems as though people are rallying behind the underdogs this season, for whatever reason. Give me this matchup in 2006 and I'll take Mario at 85% without batting an eye, but in 2010... better stick with a more conservative

Ngamer Says: Mario > Falco, 80.07%

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 6:47:17 AM | message detail | filter | #066
'cause Liquid Snake's not losing to Donkey Kong

I'm not too sure about that based on what I just saw. At least Donkey Kong put up a fight for a few minutes.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/24/2010 8:12:10 AM | message detail | filter | #067
Damnit Cr- wait

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/24/2010 9:47:35 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #068
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 18 – (8) Big Boss vs. (9) Miles Edgeworth

Moltar’s Analysis

Big Boss
Depending on the picture, this guy is either a beast or a midcarder.

Miles
Miles is bound to be weak no matter what picture he gets.

What a boring 8 vs. 9 seed match. If anything, Big Boss is underseeded and Miles is overseeded. Oh well, Big Boss has easily got this.

Let’s see what kind of picture he’s getting so I can finalize my percentage.



Yep he looks like Solid. It was with a picture like this he was able to straight-up beat Kirby last year. No way is Miles going to be that strong, and he’s even going to be a step below Phoenix (who BB beat easily in 2007).

Moltar’s Bracket: Big Boss > Miles Edgeworth

Moltar’s Prediction: Big Boss: 76% - Miles: 24%



Lopen’s Analysis

Whoo Phoenix Wright fodder. Well Edgeworth is a pretty cool dude, at least.

Anyway we've seen Edgey get bashed pretty bad, and Phoenix be rather unimpressive. We've seen Big Boss hangin with Kirby with two dead weights chained to his stubby legs.

Our only hope for an interesting match is that Boss gets an old dude picture, people mistake him for Manfred Von Karma, and Edgeworth SFFs him into the dirt.

Lopen's prediction:
Naked Snake with 74.47% OR Old Man with 60.60% (depending on pic)

EDITOR'S (aka Lopen's cause I can't afford an editor) NOTE:
It turns out he got a good pic, go figure. Ignore the hopes and dreams and the low percentage contained within this analysis.



Transience’s Analysis

Do I see Solid goddamn Snake there? Against freaking Miles Edgeworth? Big Boss rolls Edgeworth with an old dude picture; with this one, he could outperform Mario.

I really wish he got this picture against Mario next round. If he gets something similar, could Mario go out in round 2? That would be kind of insane. Dammit Bacon, don't waste good pictures on guys like Miles Edgeworth!

transience's prediction: Big Boss with 83.44%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Big Boss > Edgeworth, 72.67%



Kleenex’s Analysis


http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=3569757


Bracket: Big Boss
Favorites: Miles von Karma
Prediction: Big Boss with 72.12%



Red Sox’s Analysis

It used to be, a few years ago, that I would know who was in every match of the contest. During contest season, I’d even begin to use contest matches as my calendar. Instead of thinking, “ I went to that restaurant on Saturday night,” I’d think, I went to that restaurant on the night of Castlevania/Halo, or something like that.

I haven’t been able to remember matches nearly as well since the advent of 4-ways, and it appears this 128 character 1v1 bracket accomplishes the same thing. I had to look up who was in this match to do this write-up, and it isn’t the first time. Thinking back to the 2008 contest, I might be hard pressed to name even 1/4 of the matches off the top of my head, and I’d be even worse at ordering them.

Anyway, this match is going to be boring, and an easy blowout win for Big Boss. Miles Edgeworth is just fodder, while Big Boss could be considered a near-elite with a picture of him looking like Solid Snake. Edgeworth got 37% on Midna, who went even with Mewtwo who got 41% on Ganondorf, who’s probably close to Big Boss, so I’m going with Big Boss to get around 70% here, perhaps a bit higher.

Prediction: Big Boss with 71%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: 75%
Lower Bound: 67%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/24/2010 9:47:58 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #069
Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534

In the large scheme of things, this match is just Big Boss easing past some fodder. But to the crew, it's probably going to be looked at more for information on how strong other members of their respective series are than for the participants' individual strengths. Big Boss, with a picture that closely resembles Solid Snake, should be capable of putting a good number on Miles, given that the combined might of Kirby, Jinjo and Lucas could barely limit him to 48% of the vote in last year's round one match. Yet no character has broken 80% (except maybe Mario!), and given that Miles held onto 12% while being pummeled by Cloud and beaten by Midna you'd expect him to make at least 20%. Metal Gear is coming off a very disappointing result, and I need Miles to do well for Phoenix Wright's chances later, so I'm predicting Miles to show that when not being crushed by Cloud or Link, he can actually pull some votes.

Prediction:

Big Boss: 69%
Miles Edgeworth: 31%



Crew Consensus: Big Boss puts up a Big Victory on Edgey
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/24/2010 8:01:12 PM | message detail | filter | #070
Haven't reviewed these "early" returns yet.

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Haha, Mario, you stud! He lived up to the billing today and not only moved me up to 8th in the Oracle, but also saved my bacon in the Spread (I bet the farm on Mario > 81%). And, umm... not much less to say about the result beyond that. Personally I'd say that Mario gets to retain his King of Nintendo SFF crown, as I'm betting he had to fight a sizable wave of traditional Contest power anti-voting just to reach that mark. In fact, I'm even going to go out on a limb and predict that this will be the biggest first round blowout we see all season, that's how much things have changed since '06! (Of course Cloud/Seph/Snake all drawing semi-respectable Nintendo opposition may also have ever so slightly nudged me in that direction.)

Today's matchup is a little odd, in that I'm not all that interested in it despite there being a pretty wide range possible for the final percentage. I think we'd all agree that Big Boss is the most pic-dependent character we've ever seen in these Contests, and I think we'd also agree that he looks about as good in today's image as he ever has. So, clearly the guy is on his way to a mini-Snake like blowout, which means the real question is: how much is the Phoenix Wright series worth in a 1v1 context? I wish I could go with my gut and respond "not much", as the 4way format seems practically custom-made for PW and so his respectable showings there don't impress me overly much.

Trouble is, I keep coming back to that '06 match and having to shake my head... how in the world was Phoenix able to put up 42% on Gordon Freeman? Granted, the One Free Man is another of those 4way superstars (very dedicated fanbase, but utterly incapable of blowing anyone out), and yes this was before the Orange Box and the growth of Steam turned him into someone who could win (Gamespot) Championships. But he still went out and put up a decent number of Sora afterwards so it's not as though he was a total chump, 2002-style. Hmm... alright, final answer: the very Snakeish pic is enough to get a few percentage points out of me, but the Gordon match has me scared enough to stick with a conservative guess of

Ngamer Says: Big Boss > Edgeworth, 72.67%

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Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/24/2010 9:38:09 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #071
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 19 – (5) Zidane Tribal vs. (12) Claptrap

Moltar’s Analysis

Zidane
With FF Square looking good so far, can Zidane continue the trend?

Claptrap
Oh you mean that enemy from Donkey Kong?

Okay, so I can’t call these casual characters at all. I mean, I know they’re losing (well, winning in Altair’s case), but I can’t predict the margin at which they will lose (or win…well lose definitely applies here).

For instance, Zidane has this match in the palm of his hand. He’s not going to lose. We didn’t see much from him in 2008, but that’s because there was a Link paling around with him. He’s got high-fodder strength, as opposed to Claptrap, who is likely to be low fodder.

…Or will he be? Here goes another guess!

Moltar’s Bracket: Zidane > Claptrap

Moltar’s Prediction: Zidane: 65% - Claptrap: 35%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well here you've got Zidane against some dude whose name sounds like an STD or something.

Zidane could lose cause he sucks ass and I've actually heard of Borderlands. In fact Borderlands did... well... decently on the GotY polls. But I dunno, Zidane seems like the safer bet. I mean, look at the mighty Nathan Drake. "Hit" game != contest strength, and I haven't heard a damn thing about this guy.

So yeah gimme Zidane. And if nothing else, who could forget...

DISSIDIA BOOST 4REAL.

Lopen's prediction
Zidane with 57.02%



Transience’s Analysis

I just spent 5-10 minutes on google and youtube trying to figure out what exactly a Claptrap is. Apparently it's some kind of robot that's meant to be comic relief. Basically, it looks and sounds like Borderlands's version of Disgaea's Prinnies.

I don't think Borderlands is widespread enough for something like this to really catch on. I figure that Claptrap will perform similarly to how Sandal from Dragon Age did. Zidane should win this pretty easily, but I'm not sure if Zidane is universal enough to put up a huge number on it. I also don't like Zidane's picture very much. This is another match where Zidane could put up 80% and still make me think he's the underdog going into round 2. Fortunately, both Ike and Zidane are going against joke mascots in round 1 so we can maybe draw some conclusions on how good they are at blowing out jokes.

transience's prediction: Zidane with 68.01%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Zidane > The Clap, 69.83%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Boy does Zidane suck. Thankfully, he got paired with someone...or rather, something...that likely sucks even worse. Claptrap is apparently a robot...thing...whatever, from Borderlands. I've seen some people talking about how bad Claptrap is going to sucks, but I'd just like to remind everyone that Zidane also, in fact, sucks. This is probably going to be closer than anyone wants it to be (except those people who want Claptrap to win). I mean, Zidane's biggest triumph is barely beating Shadow, a guy who went on to lose to Amaterasu a couple days ago.

Plus, Borderlands did pretty good in the most original title poll a few weeks ago. So you never know...!


Bracket: Zidane
Favorites: Zidane
Prediction: Zidane with 59.88%
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/24/2010 9:38:26 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #072
Red Sox’s Analysis

Here we have the hero of Final Fantasy IX going against…..Claptrap. Zidane isn’t very strong, but Claptrap should be pretty bad fodder, so Zidane should have an easy win here. I really have no idea what percentage to predict- Zidane seems too weak to blowout anyone too badly, but Claptrap sounds like really really bad fodder.

Prediction: Zidane with 70%
Upset Potential: 1%
Upper Bound: Zidane with 78%
Lower Bound: Zidane with 62%



Guest’s Analysis - AsurasKordoth

Man have you seen that Zidane pic? That is one amazing match pic, whoever made it is clearly an artistic genius. Pic advantage goes to the Z-man. The first question that goes through everyone's head when they see "Claptrap" is "Who the gris is Claptrap?". Well if you bothered to Google it you will find out that it's apparently some NPC from Borderlands. Obviously there is no doubt in Zidane's victory barring some crazy shenanigans. The real question is how badly will he beat Claptrap? Although Zidane isn't particularly strong, other performances in this contest suggest he should be more than capable of doubling and Claptrap. I mean Glados doubled Fawful and freaking WCC got 78 on Sandal. Claptrap is absolute trash and Zidane is a Square lead so I give him a lot of credit. He might even break 80 but I'm counting on the Square anti-vote to keep him down.

Zidane wins with 78.51%



Crew Consensus: Zidane shouldn’t have a problem here, but who’s knows the margin of victory.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/24/2010 9:41:49 PM | message detail | delete | filter | #073
Mario....................81.04% 44525
Falco Lombardi...18.96% 10419
TOTAL VOTES..................54944

Crew Predictions - 13/17

What Happened: Mario easily beats the crap out of Falco.

Why it Happened: Because Mario can beat down weaker Nintendo characters like Falco with SFF

What will Happen: Mario is looking fine so far.



Crew Prediction Challenge - Easy point

Moltar - 15
Lopen - 14
Kleenex - 14
Ngamer - 14
Tran - 13
Red Sox - 13
Guest - 11



Crew Accuracy Challenge - Let's see how this half-point nonsense works for Red Sox and I

Ngamer - 3
Lopen - 3
Red Sox - 2.5
Moltar - 2.5
Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1)
Kleenex - 2
Tran - 1
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Moltar Status: Bracket: BB > Edgeworth (15/17)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/24/2010 9:42:28 PM | message detail | filter | #074
Lopen I will end you
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AsurasKordoth | Posted 1/24/2010 9:58:23 PM | message detail | filter | #075
Guest is about to score another for accuracy btw. Seriously, WCC can get 78% on Sandal but Zidane can't break 70% on Claptrap? Come on guys...
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~AK~ // Merc
charmander6000 | Posted 1/24/2010 9:59:33 PM | message detail | filter | #076
If you've actually played both games you would know that Claptrap is nowhere near Sandal.
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Character Battle VIII - 11/16 - Today's Winners: Mario and Big Boss
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:00:03 PM | message detail | filter | #077
And WCC would beat Zidane.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:09:08 PM | message detail | filter | #078
Half point rule now in effect? Best news of the week!

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Chaotic Mind | Posted 1/24/2010 10:43:47 PM | message detail | filter | #079

From: charmander6000 | #076
If you've actually played both games you would know that Claptrap is nowhere near Sandal.


You can know that just by looking at the two of them. Sandal has one of the worst designs in character history, i would vote for a rock from any random game over him. Meanwhile Claptrap looks like that cute robot from Wall-E, and anyone who doesn't give a crap about Zidane will likely vote for it. I know i will.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:47:29 PM | message detail | filter | #080
Oh shoot, didn't take into account the WALL*E factor. Too late now!

Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Very nice showing for Big Boss today, holding Edgeworth to under 24%. When you consider how the PW fanbase was strong enough to get their #1 guy to this same 24% in the past two R1s, but that those matches were both against three other opponents, BB comes out smelling like roses. The trouble is we pretty much all saw this coming once we knew he'd have the advantage of this Snake pic, so although it's something of an overperformance the situation has lost that "wow" factor it had back in '07. In any case, don't you pretty much have to expect a repeat of Shadow/Mario next round, as in if Boss nails another great pic (and you know he will, since B8 will be making it) even 45% might not be out of the question?

After a fantastic first week things have slowed down a touch lately, I have to admit. But that's all about to change thanks to tonight's super intriguing matchup, between... a guy a lost cleanly to Ness and some random object no one has heard of? Uggggh. Even I can't justify this poll with much of a writeup. Dragon Age topped Borderlands by 3% in the GotY, meaning that probably only about 1/4 of the site has played it and there's no need to worry about The Clapper actually winning. On the other hand, these robots or whatever are apparently more important to the storyline than that "Enchantment" Tanner from last week, so another blowout in the 80% range doesn't seem too likely.

Wish I could back ol' Clappy for a better showing to help justify my Ike pick, but that doesn't seem too possible unless Final Fantasy starts drawing some serious anti-votes. And since I've seen no indication of that so far this season, I'll stick with the fairly high pred of

Ngamer Says: Zidane > The Clap, 69.83%

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:53:25 PM | message detail | filter | #081
From what a Borderlands fan has told me, people know Claptrap, but a lot of the people who've played it hate the thing.

But I dunno.
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transience | Posted 1/24/2010 11:02:08 PM | message detail | filter | #082
no chance for Guest
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/24/2010 11:03:44 PM | message detail | filter | #083
lol guest
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 11:20:34 PM | message detail | filter | #084
Not as silly as Lopen thinking an STD could break 40% on Zidane!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/24/2010 11:26:26 PM | message detail | filter | #085
being off by 7% > being off by 14% tbqh
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 11:27:24 PM | message detail | filter | #086
Overshooting > Undershooting

This is the Lopen way!
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/24/2010 11:28:07 PM | message detail | filter | #087
Lopen overshot!

Just a different character!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 11:28:49 PM | message detail | filter | #088
That's not how this works!
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Shredderhart4 | Posted 1/25/2010 12:08:51 AM | message detail | filter | #089
I have arrived. You are not long for this world!
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The Guest Clan: Taking over the Crew one analysis at a time.
Tonight I dine on Guru soup.
Master Moltar (tc) | Posted 1/25/2010 9:50:49 AM | message detail | delete | filter | #090
Mushroom Division: Round 1 - Match 21 – (4) Ike vs. (13) Prinny

Moltar’s Analysis

Ike
WE LIKE IKE! WE LIKE IKE!

Prinny
This year’s Guru nomination. Can he really win the contest?

Ike’s a guy with decent strength, as he proved in 2008. Prinny is a Disgaea character…Laharl is also a Disgaea character. Prinny is going to have to be much, much, much, much stronger than Laharl to stand a chance here. Guess what? He won’t be. I’m guessing Prinny will be Laharl-level at best, meaning this is going to be an ugly one.

Moltar’s Bracket: Ike > Prinny

Moltar’s Prediction: Ike: 71% - Prinny: 29%



Lopen’s Analysis

No, dood, you can't be the hero. What you can do, however, is get flattened by the massive truck-like weapon that Ike claims to be a sword. WHPSHHH~

Lopen's prediction:
Ike with 80.22% (Real Disgaea fans choose Etna for the guru nomination...!)



Transience’s Analysis

Well, Zidane kind of flopped when up against a joke-ish character. He didn't do terribly, but he didn't really inspire confidence that he could hang with Ike next round.

Now Ike gets to prove that he is indeed worthy of favourite status. He's got everything in his favour here, too - a day match vs. a character from a game that's hideous during the day. Ike is well-known and should have no problem dispatching Prinny.

...and yet I feel like Prinny might "impress". I am of the belief that Prinny is the strongest Disgaea-related thing around. All Disgaea fans are Prinny fans. Prinny's even got his own game and a character design that's pretty fun. At the very least, it's better than freaking Laharl's character design. yowch. Prinny's got a good picture too. Maybe it won't compete with Ike, but I could see him making Ike work to get a doubling. That would leave the door open on the Ike/Zidane match.

transience's prediction: Ike with 67.96%


Kleenex’s Analysis

Poor Ike. He's gonnen screwed the past two years. He's got an ASV like no other. He fights for his friends. He fell just short of the second round in the past two contest. And now he draws Prinny, a hip lookin' penguin ready to take on the world, or blow it up if he feels so inclined. Prinny doesn't give a **** about Ike's ASV. How can Ike stand a chance against this? Screwed yet again. Another round 1 loss.




Oh wait, Prinny's from Disgaea.




Nevermind.


Bracket: Ike
Favorites: Ike
Prediction: Ike with 68.92%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Prinny is this year’s Guru nomination pick, but he should be pretty deep into the fodder zone. Laharl is fodder, and Prinny should be weaker than him. Ike is probably the strongest new Brawl character excepting Meta-Knight, or even in front of him potentially. He put up a very respectable 44% on Pikachu last year, and nearly beat Arthas even with Pikachu holding him down. I think very highly of Pikachu, and we’ve seen Thrall do very well this year, a good sign for Arthas. So, I’m expecting Ike to impress this year with easy wins over Prinny and Zidane before getting blasted by SFF from Mario.

Prediction: Ike with 76%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Ike with 80%
Lower Bound: Ike with 72%



Crew Consensus: Ike will show this dood what’s up.
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:15:47 AM | message detail | filter | #091
no guest writeup?
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
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G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 1/25/2010 10:22:39 AM | message detail | filter | #092
Ike is the favorite against Zidane? LOL whatever.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:28:01 AM | message detail | filter | #093
IF NO GUEST WRITE-UP HAPPENS WAR GUEST INVASION TIME

Before Cecil/Knuckles:

Well Ike'll win easily because IT'S A GODDAMN PRINNY. If Ike loses Cloud > Link is a lock.

Ike with 70.34%

After Cecil/Knuckles:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Ike with 70.34%
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FantasyFreak999 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:33:29 AM | message detail | filter | #094
If there's no guest writeup today, can I do it? lol. I'll just post what I think and see if its accepted or not.

Today's result should be obvious, as for who's gonna win. Ike should sail into the 2nd round. However, the percentage is up in the air. It'll be interesting to see just how strong Ike is in a 1-on-1 contest. Can he get a doubling on Prinny? Honestly, I don't think so. I think he'll come close, but just miss it. Prinny is probably the most popular thing coming out of Disgaia and even has his own game. And c'mon, who doesn't love a penguin?

prediction
!ke with 66.12%
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
FantasyFreak999 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:34:40 AM | message detail | filter | #095
crap! beaten to it!
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"Run, run, or you'll be well done!"
~Kefka, Final Fantasy 6~
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:36:26 AM | message detail | filter | #096
It's Ike in the ASV versus a sub-Laharl character. 75% is likely.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:57:53 AM | message detail | filter | #097
Wow, people are lowballing Ike, I think. If he does that poorly, Zidane may have a chance.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/25/2010 11:03:03 AM | message detail | filter | #098
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup

Man, what an underwhelming performance by Zidane. Allowing 36% to a character designed to annoy you in a game only 28% of the site has played, in a night match which should have been a big advantage for you? So much for that Dissidia boost we were hoping for. Or else, maybe you're only boosted if assigned a pic from Dissidia, which I'm assuming this was not. Kekfa, there's hope for you yet! In any case, sure feeling a ton better about Ike's chances in R2 after this one. Speaking of which...

This time around, Ike has no excuses. He's always done well with the ASV whereas Disgaea is strictly an overnight series, he's not just "some guy from a website" like back in '07, there are no Nintendo/SSB characters in the area to mess with his mojo, and all he should need is a respectable showing here to cement his status as a favorite for Round 2. Plus he looks pretty sweet in that match pic. Sounds to me like a 75% beatdown is in store, considering how Yoshi put up 74 directly on Laharl a few years back.

BUT WAIT! Instead I'm going to be backing down over 5% based on only one piece of info: people love penguins. Seriously they do- and it's not just Linux users anymore! Disgaea's hardcore ("let's always nominate Laharl and waste a character slot every single Contest on really bad uninteresting fodder and see how much we can get Ngamer to hate us!") fanbase should be enough to keep this from being too much of a blowout, and from there I'm betting the cute factor (honestly, nice job to whoever came up with that pic) is enough to swing us all the way down to

Ngamer Says: Ike > Prinny, 68.21%

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:24:16 AM | message detail | filter | #099
I hate this fourpack.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
dragon22391 | Posted 1/25/2010 11:24:25 AM | message detail | filter | #100
That pic was from Dissidia, Ngamer. >_>
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