GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
Haven't reviewed these early returns. Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Very nice showing from Mewtwo in this one; looks like he's going to come in about 1% higher than I predicted (making this my third straight solid Oracle pred, whoo hoo!), which as I said yesterday means that although he was wasted, this ought to at least result in another very respectable x-stat value. Where I was wrong though was in my "Nintendo vs Nintendo matches are always trendless" statement- looks like this actually had one of the better vote shifts of the season, with Ganon tailing way off as soon as American fell asleep to score in the lower 50s all night before blasting off from 7am onwards, to the point where he's consistently been well into the 60s. Yikes, has Europe ever turned its back on the Zelda series! Our Final might even feature Cloud being able to surge ahead of Link for a couple hours in the dead of night, the way things look. Next up we have what should be a big time vindication match. I've always despised Wesker for wasting perfectly good character slots with his sub-Lloyd Irving levels of suck, and I've been pushing for years to get Ken back into the bracket. The poor guy drew terrible matchups early in his career, and since then its been ridic to watch Chunners and Bison and Akuma return to the field time and again while he's been left on the sidelines. Between being prominently featured in SF4 and the imminent release of SSF4, 2010 should be a perfect opportunity for Ken to show us what fools we were for always passing him up. ...so why do I feel such a lack of confidence in this pick? Could be just a case of nerves after seeing SF4 bomb so hard last season, but I think it's more than that. Seems to me that the RE and SF series have gone in totally opposite directions since their 50/50 tussle back in early '06, at least partially because the site appears to be less friendly toward fighting games every month. That's why I originally had Ken only barely sneaking by in this one, but after reviewing Wesker's sordid past and seeing everyone else pushing for a 60% win, I ignored the bad feeling in my gut and raised Ken back up. Sticking to my guns has gone well for me lately, but let's see if I was wise to back down from this engagement. Ngamer Says: Ken > Wesker, 57.42% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Oh
good heavens- why do I keep letting the consensus affect my preds when
every result keeps hammering home how much no one knows what they're
doing this year? Ohhh, but looks like Ken just made a deep cut, and Leon is right in that we shouldn't see the typical morning collapse that the SF series has become so known for. I'm liking Ken's chances to squeeze by with a close win here... so why didn't I just stick to that guess in the first place! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Just to let you know Moltar, because on the signups it wasnt clear you did, MerchantTorneko is my alt. --- Krahen Prophet really showed me what's what. PSN Name: Wakkaball NP: Kingdom Hearts Marathon |
I never thought I could be so proud of someone for holding a 30 vote lead over Wesker. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Ken sux fortunately Wesker sux worse in the day so we should be okay here --- xyzzy |
Man, I quit this contest. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Gosh Why Ken why --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
If Kleenex quits, can I have his spot on the Crew? --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Saddest thing is if this is a night match Wesker's probably winning easy. Anyway I think we can take one thing out of this-- Dante's gonna godstomp Ryu. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I had Wesker pegged at 45% here and figured I was overshooting him Let's never nominate Ken again --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
If Wesker wins, I'll be perfect and demanding a spot on the crew. --- Keeping this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. 7/7/07 Yay!!!...Ancient Go Yankees!!! |
I feel like this is a combination of Wesker being about 5% better than we though and Ken being about 5% worse, but still. Come on. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
SC2k10: Revenge of the Fodder --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Either that, or we've got that wacky Capcom rSFF doing something here! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: Lopen | #409 RE and SF basically have the same trends, so I'm not so sure. You guys talk bad about SF's morning vote, but RE's ain't exactly powerful. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Eh three things that make me doubt that. RE's first night vote is slightly better RE's morning vote is slightly better RE's second night vote is slightly worse Put those three minor changes in their trends together and it becomes pretty significant. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
And if that wasn't enough: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3741®ion=EUR That's the only region Wesker's winning right now. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
damn, Ken really sucks. I think I still like him to win though. dunno why. --- xyzzy |
I assume this makes people feel better about having Dante over Ryu, right? --- xyzzy |
From: transients | #419 Yeah, people are saying that. I felt pretty good about Dante all along, but this doesn't hurt. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
yeah, I've never doubted Dante beating Ryu. Ryu's performance last year was enough to seal it for me. --- xyzzy |
Plus Dante is superior to Ryu in every way! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #422 I wouldn't say that! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
So what are the odds on Leon > Dante? I wasn't thinking when I picked Leon and it seems like kind of a long shot. --- Oh, sorry, I got distracted by KrahenProphet. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=99 |
Need to see what Dante and Leon do first, but Leon's 0-3 against Dante so far, so... --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Either that, or we've got that wacky Capcom rSFF doing something here! you mean in general rSFF knuckles > sonic BELIEVE --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
pfff, guys, aren't you up to date, it's the colour red deboost, oh crap ryu has a red bandana. --- Shakes Fist! |
I think just to be safe, all of you should pick Rikku --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Pick Kirby to win with 60%+ everyone! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Ryu's still got this. Ken's total failure (hopefully) shouldn't rub off on Ryu. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
Chaos Division: Round 1 - Match 13 – (6) Kirby vs. (11) Rikku Moltar’s Analysis Kirby After a great run last year, Kirby has a very good shot at going far again. Rikku Meanwhile…Rikku pretty much got wasted here. This freaking contest. Of course I had to go and call it easy. Yeah, I’ve only gotten one match (Ken you better not lost) wrong, but these results are crazy. It’s been a while since our last 1v1 character contest, but man…Anyway, we’ve got two contest vets here today. This result shouldn’t be too surprising. Rikku’s not weak, but unfortunately she gets sucked up by the Pink Puffball here. This isn’t going to be a blowout, as Rikku has performed respectably Kirby in the past. Plus, you’ve got Square, FF in particular, looking good so far in the Contest. Kirby may be in some trouble, especially since Nintendo is in a weaker state on GameFAQs at the moment, but I’d be shocked if he blew this match after his run last year. I’m interested to see what Kirby will do here. With Sonic’s crappy performance, Kirby is a contender to pull off the upset again on him. Moltar’s Bracket: Kirby > Rikku Moltar’s Prediction: Kirby: 57% - Rikku: 43% Lopen’s Analysis Analysis Crew - TOWN Insane Cop. I can dig this. Well Cecil looked good, and Nintendo-esque characters have been looking bad. Does that extend to Rikku and Kirby? I dunno. I'm thinking Kirby will weather the test of time, though. Kirby's beaten Tidus straight up in commanding fashion already, and I don't really see Rikku doing any better. It'll help her that this is a Night match, and I think FF's stock has legit gone up for this contest, but it's just a large margin to make up. In 2005 I'd take it to be 60-40 Kirby, Rikku probably does a bit better here, I'm gonna say it's a close but not too close one. MY BOY KIRBY PRIMED TO TAKE SONIC DOWN. ... or pigman, if you rather. Lopen's prediction: Kirby with 55.55%. Transience’s Analysis Now here is a match. It's hard to believe that Neku or Laharl will be in round 2 while one of these guys will be one-and-done. Kirby is the clear favourite here and for good reason - beats Sonic, leads Cloud for an hour, board favourite, etc etc. Kirby has won some impressive matches over the years, including beating Tidus handily in 2005. Rikku's not stronger than Tidus - maybe she's Tidus's equal, but she's not stronger. The thing is, this is a night match and FF10 has one of the very best night votes around. FFX beat Melee overnight in 2004. Countless FF10 characters have dominated the overnight. Without that pitiful day vote, Rikku has a real chance to do something. This could be Kirby's toughest match of this division, which is weird to say when there's a noble nine guy and Ganondorf in it. This isn't just a trend match, either - Rikku has pretty nice strength. She's one of our best kept secrets because she always gets utterly screwed in bracket placement - Ryu in 2005, Knuckles in 2007 with another Square character in the poll, snubbed in 2008. The only time she got a chance to shine was in that crappy female bracket. Kirby's just too much for her though. As said before, Kirby beat down Tidus during all hours. Kirby has a kickass early vote that will stunt any night vote hax that Rikku may possess. FFX is pretty hot right now and Nintendo's not, but that shouldn't stop Kirby from sucking up all the votes here. Kirby rolls and waits to see what happens to Sonic and Ganondorf. transience's prediction: Kirby with 58.24% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Kirby > Rikku, 57.47% |
Kleenex’s Analysis Kirby is not that strong. Last year was a fluke. He's got some oomph behind him, but he is not a Noble-Nine breaker. Nor can he hand with the likes of them. Anyway, despite missing a few contests here and there, Rikku's a pretty solid midcarder. Or she was last time we saw her, anyway. She should put up an okay fight againt the dum pink ball here, being a night match and all, but she'll never threaten to win the match. I do hope every takes Kirby with some ridiculous percentage here and then they all get disappointed when he fails to reach that mark. Suck it, Kirby supporters. Bracket: Kirby Favorites: Rikku Prediction: Kirby with 56.44% Red Sox’s Analysis This is our first Nintendo vs. Square match of the bracket! Nintendo vs. Square matches are always the most exciting ones, as we get to see our strongest contest forces face each other. Since the Nintendo Boost in 2005, Nintendo has dominated this rivalry and these contests, but in last year’s character battle, we saw some cracks in the armor at last with the Deboost (jokingly called the BRAWL DEBOOST). Like the original Nintendo Boost in 2005, it impacted Mario characters the most. However, unlike the original Boost, it did not impact Kirby very much, and Kirby pulled off the greatest match of his contest life, beating Sonic. Or did it? We’ve seen confirmation that beating Sonic is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Did Kirby really deboost, and still beat Sonic anyway? After all, his earlier round performances were pretty bad- he let Big Boss get 48% on him and two other very weak Nintendo characters. Going through a constant Auron, Sonic 2008 is projected to get about 41% on Sonic 2006. That still suggests 2008 Kirby > 2006 Kirby if you take Sonic/Luigi at face value, but the reverse begins to look possible…. And 2005/6 Kirby > 2008 Kirby looks more and more possible with each match we see related to Sonic or Sonic’s division last year! Magus, Shadow, Sonic, and Knuckles- all disappointed. Further, with Nintendo’s popularity as a company at an all-time low on Gamefaqs, with only 8% voting for the Wii in the GOTY poll, half of last year’s number, there is speculation of a second deboost. As for yet it is only speculation based on the very limited data of Link disappointing, but it’s a plausible theory nonetheless. So, how close will Rikku get to Kirby? Kirby has set his sights on Sonic and wants to be the one to break the Noble Nine, but could Rikku rob him of his chance to do so by beating him here? My answer is that she could look very good tonight, but she probably won’t win. 1st projection: Kirby got 57% on Tidus in 2005, in the year of the Nintendo Boost. Rikku is probably around Tidus level, and if Kirby has lost a bit of his strength to the Deboost, you might expect him to get around 54-55% against Tidus or Rikku now. But this is a night match, so you can cut away another percent or 2, bringing him down to 53% or so. 2nd projection: Rikku got 31% exactly on Samus in 2006 (I predicted it exactly in the Oracle!). Sonic got about 42% on Samus in 2004, and if you figure 2008 Sonic is worth about 40% on 2006 Sonic, and the Samus/Sonic gap stayed about the same from 2004 to 2006 (they both boosted some), then you’d expect 2008 Sonic to get about 34% or so on 2006 Samus. If you then set Kirby equal to 2008 Sonic, that gives him about 54-55% on Rikku in a 24-hour match, and perhaps 53% or so in a night match. These 2 projections match up pretty well, so I’ll make that my prediction tonight: Prediction: Kirby with 53% Upset Potential: 10% Upper Bound: Kirby with 57% Lower Bound: Rikku with 51% |
Guest’s Analysis - edwardsdv We all know Kirby has been getting rather big for his breaches lately. Some people even have him taking out Sonic like last year. I think this is possible, but with Kirby you never know. You see Kirby is filled with the worlds most volatile gas. That's why when he puffs it on enemies, they die.Their bodies have no other reaction than to cease existing. The unpredictability has carried over to his contest efforts, where he struggles with mid-carders like Big Boss and then hands Sonic his furry blue butt. Rikku on the other hand, is a hot Final Fantasy chick during the time of day when the lonely guys are frequenting the board. This is an advantage because, you never know guys may see that cute girl and forget all about their childhood favorite. Happens all the time. I don't think it'll be enough to dethrone our resident puff ball, but it will be enough to makei t closer than one may think. Kirby, with 56.12% Crew Consensus: Kirby wins…but Rikku should do well. |
Damnit, must go lower. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
someone should pull the "the price is right" card Kirby with 50.01% --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
I am scared of Rikku now --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Oh man... what a season! What was supposed to be a 60/40 affair has instead turned into an epic battle featuring 8 lead changes, with neither character able to gain a lead of more than 210 for almost the entire day! In fact if the match ended right NOW (I'm writing this with 90 minutes to go), this would go down as the closest wire-to-wire poll in site history, including 4ways. Unfortunately Ken has been on fire ever since Europe fell asleep a couple hours ago and it now looks like this will end up being only the third closest wire-to-wire match or so, but still... what a day! Trouble is, as much fun as this back and forth battle was to follow, there's no denying that Ken ought to have taken this poll in a walk, meaning Ryu-backers like myself might as well burn our brackets now. Why oh why did I put faith in fighting characters in the year 2010? On the plus side, this result leaves me feeling a ton better about Jill's chances, and if these RE overperformances become the trend, maybe even that Leon > Dante upset could still be in the cards! And the hits keep coming- we should be in store for yet another good one tonight. Kirby and Final Fantasy have a long history together, and based on everything we've seen over the years (57% wins over Ramza and Tidus, 75% over Cecil, 45% on Squall), Kirby looks like the obvious choice here, especially after his crazy run in '08. And yet, everything so far this season seems to be trending against him: people are apparently anti-voting the favorites, Link and MMX underperformed, the semi-Nintendo Sonic guys looked awful, and (new) Square appears to be enjoying something of a Renaissance. Plus, Rikku looks crazy cute in this match pic- perhaps even cuter than Kirby himself, and that's really saying something! His biggest problem though is his bad luck in drawing a Night Match. Europe is wild about FFX and Asia loves it even more; I can't see any way for Kirbs to actually lose this one considering how kind the morning vote should be to him, but don't be surprised if those two continents take huge slashes out of the puffball's percentage during the dead hours. In summary, I'm thinking this one has all the makings of a tighter-than-expected tussle that leaves the casual observer feeling as though Kirby has no chance at the Sonic upset, when in reality the guy's got a ton of potential and was just stuck in an unwinnable situation in Round One. ...sound familiar? Ngamer Says: Kirby > Rikku, 57.47% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Kirby to double Rikku, let's do this! --- The Gamer In Me "paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane |
*insert results of the last 3 matches here* Crew Predictions - 8/11 What Happened: Sonic Team sux, Ganondorf does decent Why it Happened: No one likes Sonic anymore. What will Happen: Sonic will probably not make it out of his division. Crew Prediction Challenge - Only the Guest doesn't get the 3 points Moltar - 10 Lopen - 9 Kleenex - 8 Tran - 8 Ngamer - 8 Red Sox - 8 Guest - 6 Crew Accuracy Challenge - Red Sox for Sonic, Ngamer for Knux, Tran for Ganon Moltar - 2 Guest - 2 (Bio: 1, CM: 1) Ngamer - 2 Kleenex - 1 Lopen - 1 Tran - 1 Red Sox - 1 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Kirby > Rikku (11/12) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Massive Rikku underestimation ITT. Red Sox will probably win accuracy. --- ~AK~ // Merc |
Man you know we've been doing bad when I'm in 2nd place. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
If we've been doing bad, what do you call the guests' performance? --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
lol guests --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
...creative! --- How could you take the game at all seriously thinking that! "Dude what's Barkley doing controlling the empire" KH: 358/2 Days wooo |
The Guests get a free point because of my awesome write-up! Can't speak for the others though, they're being both wrong AND boring! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Man, I should really proofread my writeups before sending them to Moltar. ...nah. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I approve of War's petition for a free point. Best of all time. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
intro post was awesome, someday maybe I can be a full witch but for now I settle for being the unsuspected culprit! --- This is an alt for Applekidjosh |
From: KleenexTissue50 | #447 sometimes I fix them up but tonight I was in a hurry so I just copy -> pasted -> posted --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Kirby > Rikku (11/12) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
