GameFAQs Contests
Character Battle VIII Contest Analysis Crew
I'm
not sure how well Cecil does, but this is basically his last chance to
redeem himself. In 2005 he was melting, and in 2008 he was hit with
ZackFAQs. This match...there are no excuses. If Cecil can't get 40% on
Knuckles, I hope he never makes the field again. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Haven't reviewed these early returns yet. Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup Ha, another hilarious result courtesy of Team Sonic! With all the insanity that went down in the final week of our '08 Contest, I'd forgotten how the most fun I've had on this board in years was reading through the Stats topic after it became clear that Kirby was going to actually knock Sonic out of the Contest. Yesterday's reaction wasn't quite as entertaining, but oh well, we've still got plenty more chances to delight in the downfall of this once proud Team, including another opportunity at Kirby > Sonic... though now it seems the greater danger will be if Sonic can even GET there! Then again, perhaps we won't even have to wait that long? Team Sonic member who hasn't looked so hot in recent years, Final Fantasy hero with a recent release and pretty sweet match pic, great opportunity to keep the anti-Sonic sentiment of the last two days rolling; sounds like a recipe for disaster! And yet I look around and not only is no one giving Cecil a chance at the upset, they're all predicting Knux to cruise with around 60%. What's wrong with this picture? I've got to go back to my announcement from yesterday: in any other season I'd get intimidated and hedge back toward the average, but this year I honestly get the impression that no one knows what they're doing. So since it worked out so well for me with Sonic, I'm sticking with my instinct and holding on to this low Knux number. FF4 did pretty well with its limited opportunities in 2008, and I've always had the impression that much of Cecil's flop against Kirby can be chalked up to that awful match pic. And while it's true that Knuckles surely does a better job of avoiding anti-votes than Shadow, I was still far from impressed by the way he didn't even contend in what we thought beforehand would be a 50/50 affair with Zelda (given that the King of Nintendo SFF was sitting right above them in that poll). Come on Sonic Crew, you've got one more flop in you, I can feel it! Ngamer Says: Knuckles > Cecil, 53.81% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
So who undershot Knuckles the most today --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
I did. I have Knuckles losing! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Ah haha! I used to think there was nothing I loved more than being right, but in the last two days I may have found it: everyone else being wrong. Seriously guys, what the heck was that? "Sonic is getting killed, Cecil has FF4 remake + Dissidia + decent match pic... nope, Knux with 60% anyways!" ...opps, that wasn't very Donatello of me. But still- pick your game up, Crew! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
YOU THOUGHT I WAS CRAZY! YOU ALL THOUGHT I WAS CRAZY! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Oh
crap, and with that last update it's become clear that this isn't a
matter of respectability anymore; Knux is honestly in a fight for his
life. Dang, even when I try to undershoot Sonic I miss by 4% these days. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
From: WarThaNemesis2 | #356 I'm sorry I doubted you, Guest Clanling. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 1/20/2010 6:58:13 AM | #348 Guest’s Analysis - War Before Sonic/Lightning: http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/7644/warwriteup.jpg After Sonic/Lightning: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Cecil with 50.01% XD --- http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/ii49/superangelo128/Cecilehiadefawesomereduced.jpg |
nice, War. Sonic characters are just a joke now. my god. --- xyzzy |
Hahaha War's analysis best ever. C'mon Cecil let's go! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
...yeah ok, Sonic's probably in trouble. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Are all guest spots taken already? I would love to do one. --- ~AK~ // Merc |
oh analysis crew please choose sonic over knuckles id rather it be knuckles than ganon --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
forgot to add Believe. --- GranTurisMo - God's Tiniest Man - Great Thorn Monkeys! Member of the merSHINEsess Nation since 7/15/09 |
Id also like to do one, but I cant find any signups :( --- Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire. |
Yeah, same here. |
I hope Moltar's email address is still mastermoltar@gmail.com, I couldn't find it and had to send my writeup posthaste using the one I had stored from last year. >_> --- How could you take the game at all seriously thinking that! "Dude what's Barkley doing controlling the empire" KH: 358/2 Days wooo |
Yeah I always forget to put that pesky e-mail in the first post. Anyway Guest sign-ups for Divisions 3 and 4 going up shortly. Keep your eye on the main board! --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Sonic > Lightning (7/8) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
From: Master Moltar | #348 Lol, i don't care if he screwed over our Prediction score, that was the best write-up ever! --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
So
I just caught up on both the contest and this topic after a bunch of
days of not being on the computer much. TMNT Crew - yesssssssss. Sonic
characters - oh my lord. Oh...my lord. Just wow. --- How could you take the game at all seriously thinking that! "Dude what's Barkley doing controlling the empire" KH: 358/2 Days wooo |
Soon I will be gone for like 7.5 hours, so I hope that Analysis Crew spots aren't all taken by then! |
The sign-up topic is up now, go pick your match before you leave! --- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw |
Chaos Division: Round 1 - Match 11 – (5) Ganondorf vs. (12) Mewtwo Moltar’s Analysis Ganondorf Best character in the contest going far this year. Believe Mewtwo No SFF to coast your way into Round 4 this time! This match sucks. I would have liked to see Mewtwo in a more favorable position, but instead he gets fed to Ganondorf Round 1. We’ve already seen Bowser beat Mewtwo, so there’s no reason to doubt Ganondorf to do the same. Moltar’s Bracket: Ganondorf > Mewtwo Moltar’s Prediction: Ganondorf: 63% - Mewtwo: 37% Lopen’s Analysis You know what's gonna happen with this match, right? We all saw Link, we all saw him nearly lose to Thrall. I mean he didn't even break 80%! By Link standards, that's a near loss. Zelda ON DA DECLINE, believe. Also, I've always been suspicious of Ganondorf's position on the Nintendo hierarchy. And most important, as we all know, Ganondorf has no Balls. Of course I mean Master Balls. ... I would be tempted to take Mewtwo here, but one thing is stoppin me: Night match. No Pokedayvote hurts Mewtwo, lots. I do think Mewtwo's got some strength in him-- I mean he beat Squall and Sora in a triple SFF match. No seriously! That's more impressive than it sounds on paper! But that last factor makes me hold back from pullin the trigger on this one. I'm feeling a close match, though! Lopen's prediction Ganondorf with 53.45% Transience’s Analysis Wow, this has been one BAD week for Sonic Team. Sonic isn't gonna get a chance to redeem himself since his next match is against Knuckles, so barring a completely embarrassing performance from Ganondorf, he's walking into that match as the underdog. As for tonight's match, we've seen this before: Mewtwo impressed in his first match, but it wasn't enough to beat Bowser. Ganondorf is tougher than Bowser too, though his recent contest history is pretty lackluster, getting creamed by Samus and losing to Gordon Freeman. Despite his seemingly poor results against Nintendo characters, I don't think he'll struggle with Mewtwo here. 1v1 probably helps Ganondorf out and it's also a night match. Mewtwo will probably open strong, but Ganondorf should be pretty safe for the rest of the match. transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 58.11% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Ganon > Mewtwo, 59.76% Kleenex’s Analysis Oh hey it's Mewtwo again. The guy who everyone thought was going to be strong and then almost lost to Midna. Ganondorf's higher on the totem pole, always has been, and even though he seems to have fallen of slightly the past couple years (last year was moderately embarassing), he can still hang with the best of them. 'dorf should win this pretty comfortably. I could see Mewtwo impressing a little bit here just because Pokemon seems to do better at night relative to other Nintendo guys. Ganon's not really in any danger, though, so this should be a pretty boring match. Bracket: Ganondorf Favorites: Ganondorf Prediction: Ganondorf with 64.48% Red Sox’s Analysis We’ve got a very boring match today between 2 Nintendo characters, one of which is a near-elite, and the other of which is a midcarder. In 2008, Mewtwo barely beat Midna, albeit in a 4-way, but that tells you everything you need to know about his upset chances here. The only question is the margin, and how much Ganondorf can run it up with SFF. Ganondorf, as the king leech, has a pretty hard time SFFing anyone though, so he probably won’t get much from it here. Prediction: Ganondorf with 60% Upset Chances: 0% Upper Bound: Ganondorf with 64% Lower Bound: Ganondorf with 56% |
Guest’s Analysis - satai_delenn My favorite thing about this match is that if this were Melee, they would both have their Evil Guy Spin with Sinister Laugh Taunt going on. And what's great about that, aside from these taunts being badass and great, is that you can tell who's going to win the match just from the taunt. Check it out. Mewtwo's taunt is pretty good--the sinister chuckle, the tail, the over-the-shoulder come-hither glare. But Ganondorf knows where it's at...it's all about the cape. Thus, we know that Ganondorf is going to win. In slightly less arbitrary news...Mewtwo seemed to put up a decent showing in his first contest appearance two years ago, though it's a little hard to tell between four-way matches and less-than-impressive competition followed by ridiculous SFF making him look better than he probably should have looked. But then last year in his single match he held his own pretty well against Bowser. Granted, Toad was in ur match stealin ur votes, but he didn't really steal that many of them. And you can't discount Ryu, of course, because who can say where his votes would have gone if he hadn't been there. Still, Mewtwo didn't look pathetic against two fellow Nintendo characters, and that's something. Ganondorf is...well...Ganondorf. Unfortunately I'm not super-up-to-date with games coming out and all that, especially Pokemon-related games, but I know there was a Toon Link game that came out not that long ago (or is coming soon?) and Mewtwo's been a little old hat for a while. Shame, because I liked him in Melee. (One of like five people who did, I realize, but hey.) satai's vote: Mewtwo satai's prediction: Ganondorf with 67.13% Crew Consensus: all hail Ganondorf |
damn you guest I was supposed to have the highest Ganondorf prediction --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
I don't think Ganondorf breaks 61% here. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Ryu got 59% on Mewtwo in 2007, though that was with Bowser/Toad in the poll. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 5/8 - Today's Winners: Sonic and Knuckles |
Best character in the contest going far this year. Believe Yeah, Squall's going far. Not sure what this has to do with Ganondorf though! My stats from last year predict a 58.90% win for Ganondorf. Behold the wild accuracy of 4-way stats! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
I should just be on the Crew My predictions are flawless --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
hey I'm within 10% today why am I on the crew again? --- xyzzy |
I predict a Moltar win here. --- ~AK~ // Merc |
Haven't viewed these early returns. Ngamer's Fantastical Writeup We're coming down to the final minutes of the Knuckles match as I write this, and Cecil is threatening to take him back below 52%. Not sure why, but boy do I ever take delight in watching Sonic Team struggle! Especially with how absurd the Stats topic was regarding this one; all you heard was how sure Shadow sucks now and Sonic's a ghost of his former self, but Knuckles was somehow going to be immune to the trend because he... beat Magus, or something. Come on guys, those 2005 performances don't count for much anymore, and they're becoming more obsolete every day! IMO, the most interesting thing to take away from this one is, how much of Cecil's improvement was the better pic versus a possible Dissidia boost? If it's mostly the latter, will we FINALLY be seeing a long awaited win out of Kefka? But if neither of those factors was a big deal and this is all just the FF4 remake, then whoa, is Zach ever a Square SFF machine! Tonight's battle is a bit of an oddball. Normally Nintendo on Nintendo is as dull as it gets (as Luigi/MK again reiterated for us) but for some reason I have a hunch that in this particular case, something will happen that's worth keeping an eye on. On the one hand you've got the Pokemon series, which has been on fire the last couple years and figures to turn in another good performance, since Mewtwo is one of its strongest representatives and (unlike Pikachu) probably pretty anti-vote resistant to boot. But on the other hand, Nintendo SFF can be brutal, and we're dealing with the company's fourth strongest character here! (I know, I know, a case could be made for Zelda/Bowser/Kirby/Luigi, but bah.) Unfortunately for Ganon, there's apparently a HUGE gap between 3rd and 4th on the Nintendo totem poll, if last year's Samus/Ganon matches have anything to say about it. And even more unfortunately, he strikes me as an entrant who despite his strength is such a leach off the Zelda series that I doubt he could SFF anyone, aside from maybe... Tingle, or something. *shudders* In summary, it's a real shame that a character with as much potential as Mewtwo was wasted in a position like this, but even so I bet he goes down with a fight. I'll take him to perhaps have some trouble overnight, but come back with a respectable Morning Vote to bring this one back under 60%. Which ought to look pretty nice in the x-stats, after the number Ganon and Kirby do on Sonic! Ngamer Says: Ganon > Mewtwo, 59.76% --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
and (unlike Pikachu) probably pretty anti-vote resistant to boot. Uhhh, Pikachu handled LFF pretty well the last two years. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Whaaa? I said anti-vote, not LFF! --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
If Pikachu doesn't get LFF'd, what makes you think he gets anti-voted! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
LFF is when you share a fanbase, and as we've seen many times now, the Nintendo fanbase is intensely loyal to the Pokemon brand. Anti-votes is what happens to you outside of your core fanbase, and as we saw way back in the day, Pikachu was so hated outside of his core base that even PaRappa was able to give him a scare. Of course who knows if Pika will still get slammed these days considering we haven't seen him since '03, but I'm positive he's still a bigger anti-vote magnet than a Mewtwo or Charizard. --- KrahenProphet is the King of the Gurus! All Hail! thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
Oh, he probably is, but Pikachu's anti-voting isn't very significant anymore, I don't think. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
damn you guest I was supposed to have the highest Ganondorf prediction Aren't you glad you don't now? >_> Man...that cape totally threw me off. I should have known though, The Incredibles taught me what happens when you wear a cape...! --- How could you take the game at all seriously thinking that! "Dude what's Barkley doing controlling the empire" KH: 358/2 Days wooo |
Chaos Division: Round 1 - Match 12 – (4) Albert Wesker vs. (13) Ken Masters Moltar’s Analysis Wesker COMPLETE GLOBAL SATURATION Ken Hey, Ken finally returns! And he’s got an easy match too. Okay, I know Wesker is awesome and all (dat mercenaries theme), but I hope no one gets tricked by the seeding here. Wesker may be a 4-seed, but one look at his contest history shows he has no shot of winning here. How in the hell do you even lose to guys like Kefka, Lloyd and Lara? The last time we saw Ken was back in 2003 and based on the fact that he’s not Wesker-level, I doubt he’s going to lose here. Moltar’s Bracket: Ken > Wesker Moltar’s Prediction: Wesker: 39% – Ken: 61% Lopen’s Analysis Wesker's only purpose in this contest is to provide me with ample references to wearing sunglasses at night. Dude lost to Lloyd Irving, man, Lloyd Irving. Now I know you're like "but Lopen 5 years ago" but he's made return appearances in 4 ways and they've been none too popular. SF4 was a flop on GameFAQs, but RE5 didn't exactly blow away the field either. It's Wesker's first relevant release since the "rebirth" of RE, but RE wasn't exactly fodder before. It's not like he's the main character. Ken may have dropped a bit if his SF fellows are any indication, but even the weakest SF character could handle Wesker with ease. Also of note... Wesker: Hey Ken can I wear my sunglasses at night? Ken: No. This is a day match. And that's that. No night vote to help Wesker, no morning vote to slaughter Ken. It's all to the good, easy win for Ken. Lopen's prediction: Ken with 63.24% Transience’s Analysis Ken returns after six or something years of inactivity. And yet, this match is all about Wesker. You see, we already know that Ken will be all right. He won't blow people away, but he's fairly iconic and well-known. He's probably third or fourth on the fighting game totem pole, training only Ryu, Sub-Zero and maybe Scorpion. Wesker, on the other hand, has never had a good contest performance ever. He got doubled by Kefka. He lost to an unliked Tales character. He put up a decent fight against Lara Croft in a fourway but lost there too. He's 0-3 and just always sucked. Wesker's main problem is that, from my understanding, he's always been a side villain, not somebody that really stars in a game. He's the Ocelot of Resident Evil, basically - the mastermind that SHOULD be popular but loses out to lesser villains with more screentime. Even Nemesis is more popular than Wesker. Resident Evil 5 features Wesker actually doing stuff, from what I understand, and that alone could give him a nice boost. (then again, MGS4 featured Ocelot front and center and he still sucks. whatever.) Unfortunately for Wesker, RE5 was seen as a pretty big disappointment by most. That probably won't affect his popularity since a crapton of people bought RE5 -- see Altair if you want proof of an overhyped game still giving a character decent strength -- but it probably limits the effectiveness that RE5 can have. Wesker probably isn't topping the fodder line. So let's move on to Ken. Ken's floor is Chun Li or Bison, which is basically Wesker's ceiling unless RE5 does wild things. Ken's ceiling, on the other hand? http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/hh48/PhoenixUMK3/kenroster2.jpg |
Ken
is by far the most popular character in SF4. Everyone plays him,
everyone loves him. His previous matches have been kind of a joke - he
got beat on by two noble nine guys, but did all right considering the
situations he's been put in. If SF4 provides a boost -- and it will,
given that it's the first SF game worth a damn in 10 years -- then Ken
should be absolutely safe here. Wesker's got nothing on Ken. transience's prediction: Ken with 59.94% Ngamer’s Analysis Fantastical writeup coming soon! Ngamer Says: Ken > Wesker, 57.42% Kleenex’s Analysis Albert Wesker is the Revolver Ocelot of the Resident Evil world. The fan-favorite villain that stinks up the joint when everyone else from his series does well. Remember last year? Leon, Chris and even Jill do well for themselves. Wesker, on the other hand, well...he decides to have trouble with Sackboy of all people. Sackboy who, if you'll remember, didn't even have a game at the time. Wesker also has losing to the likes of Lloyd Irving and getting demolished by Kefka on his resume. Then there's Ken, whose only contest showing was an admittedly impressive loss against Samus. Even though SF4 barely beat Persona 4 in the games contest, its characters have always performed fairly respectably in character contests. And really, there's no reason to think it'll be any different here. So what if Ken hasn't been able to make a contest return until now, some 6 or 7 years later? Wesker sucks. Hard. "Hey Wesker, can I win this match with ease?" Bracket: Ken Favorites: Ken Prediction: Ken with 59.87% Red Sox’s Analysis This is a match where for a while during the bracket making period, I wanted to go with Wesker. But after seeing Wesker’s 2005 polls again, I had to back the consensus favorite Ken. I don’t think Ken will be nearly as strong as he was in 2002 and 2003, when he avoided doublings from two Noble Niners, but Wesker is just way too weak to capitalize. I do think that weak characters like this can undergo some pretty huge changes in strength though, and Wesker’s had an important role in his series since the Villains Contest. Meanwhile, Street Fighter has looked just awful the recently, with Street Fighter 2 losing to Sonic 1 in the Games Contest and Street Fighter 4 only winning by 7 votes over Persona 4. Yes, that’s right, PERSONA 4. So, I don’t think this is quite a lock for Ken, and am giving this a pretty wide range: Prediction: Ken with 55% Upset Chances: 15% Upper Bound: Ken with 63% Lower Bound: Wesker with 53% |
Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart Moltar: Hey Leon, can I get an analysis? Leonhart: SHORYUKEN I’ll be fairly straightforward here because this is a pretty simple match, I think. Look at these two polls: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2538 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2892 Chun-Li beat Lara Croft fairly easily with 55.55% of the vote back in 2006. Wesker lost to her by about 2000 votes. Everything we’ve seen before seems to indicate that Ken is stronger than Chun-Li as well (Ken did better against Samus than Chun-Li did against Bowser, for example, though that may not be the best example. Plus, Ken has outperformed Chunners pretty easily on our Favorite Street Fighter polls that we’ve had). Besides that, there’s the fact that Wesker’s performance against Lara Croft almost feels like an anomaly. It’s the best performance we’ve ever seen from the guy. Everything else we’ve seen from him has looked really bad (Getting less than 60% on Luca Blight, losing to Lloyd Irving, getting doubled by Vivi and struggling against Sackboy), so I’m being generous in giving him the benefit of the doubt in that Lara Croft match. And yeah, Wesker’s had Resident Evil 5 since last year, but Ken’s had Street Fighter IV. The boost each got from his game should not be much greater than what the other one gets, especially since both of them bombed in the Game of the Year poll. Leonhart’s Anticipation Level: Medium. I’m excited about seeing Ken back after 7 years, but the match itself shouldn’t be very interesting. Leonhart’s Prediction: Ken Masters with 57.75% Crew Consensus: Ken will beat the snot out of Wesker |
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 1/21/2010 9:46:38 AM | #392 yessssssss Wesker wins --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
I
think Ken will flop, but I agree that Wesker will be too weak to
capitalize on the opportunity. I see 55% for Ken. And besides, we all
thought that Ocelot and Drake would lose because they've looked bad,
and we were right. Wesker may overperform just like them, but he would
still LOSE. It's nice to see Ken back after, uh, 6 years. Man things were so different in 2003 (like I was in 3rd grade, and now I'm in 9th. Woah!). |
Aw yeah, I wasn't the only one to make a SHORYUKEN joke! But I was the only one who delivered the punchline! What's wrong with you guys! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
The fact that every analysis wasn't a series of Shoryuken puns is disappointing --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
shoryuken jokes are so 2004 --- xyzzy |
So are 1v1 contests with terrible SFF matches in the second round. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Yeah, but Ken hasn't been in since 2003, so this is our first chance to use them with him! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
CREEEEEEEEEEEEEW --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
